Star Lofts on the Bay and Onyx on the Bay haven’t had any new closings in quite some time. I think they are pretty much done. Midtown 2 has maybe one or two new closings every couple of weeks. Might as well put a fork in them as well.
Latitude on the River has done comparatively well but it seems as if closings have plateaued. I think it will be difficult for them to reach the 80 percent mark within the next couple of months unless a bulk buyer steps in to buy the defaulted condos.
Ten Museum Park has been struggling but I know that an individual has stepped in to buy over ten units there within the past couple of weeks and is still looking to buy more. Only about half of these closings have been recorded. Rumor has it that a separate bulk buyer has a strong interest in buying the remaining units that come back to the developer of Ten Museum Park after all closings have been completed. I think by January we’ll see the percentage of closings at Ten Museum Park top 90 percent.
50 Biscayne began closings on October 1, 2007 and is doing quite well. Most closings get recorded within the first week but there can be a two to three week delay so some condos that have closed within the past two weeks may not be reflected in the numbers above. It will be interesting to see how high the percentage of closings at 50 Biscayne rises by the end of the year.
Developers Renting Their Inventory as a Last Resort
On Friday, the Daily Business Review published an article entitled, “Condominiums: Holding Pattern”. The article points out that several developers of recently completed condo developments have opted to rent their unsold or defaulted inventory to remain afloat.
The question that resounds throughout the article is whether or not this approach makes economic sense for these developers. Their hope is that the rental income earned will buy them time until the market rebounds.
The Midtown Miami development lies at the forefront of the article. Midtown 2 has had considerable problems with closings since they began in May of this year. As stated in the article, I have found only 179 closings for their 338 total units. The class-action lawsuit against the developer by contract holders certainly hasn’t helped matters. However, the root of the problem lies in the fact that the preconstruction prices offered by the developer were much too high for that neighborhood. Units were sold with a promise that the neighborhood would somehow be transformed within three short years. The reality is that the neighborhood is still at least another 3-5 years away from delivering on that promise. Initial prices at Midtown 2, and Midtown 4 for that matter, were higher than more desirable Brickell condo developments such as Plaza on Brickell, 500 Brickell and Axis.
Sandra de la Torre, a sales agent at Midtown Miami, stated in the article that 20 developer units were available for rent and 20-25 were available for sale. I highly doubt that this is the only inventory that the developer has in his possession, given that only 179 closings at Midtown 2 appear in public records. It is much more likely that at least 30 percent of the building will eventually be available for lease through the developer. I haven’t heard anything lately regarding the class-action lawsuit, so maybe it is still pending and a large portion of the unaccounted units can be tied to that.
Rental prices will need to be quite attractive at 2 Midtown in order for potential tenants to be enticed into signing a lease there. Many more options will become available for renters in the upcoming months in more desirable neighborhoods at attractive prices. In the Miami Arts District, The 1800 Club, in my opinion, will drive rental prices down throughout the neighborhood once closings begin and investors eventually opt to lease their units. The prices at The 1800 Club were quite attractive when sales were initially launched. This is one condo building where it might make economic sense for the developer to rent its remaining inventory. The neighborhood immediately surrounding The 1800 Club has a greater chance of rebounding within the next couple of years than that surrounding Midtown Miami. Vulture capital funds should keep a close eye on The 1800 Club because it could become the ideal development to invest in future months if prices dip below initial preconstruction prices.
Plaza on Brickell and Axis are two condo developments in Brickell that will drive down rental prices throughout the neighborhood once they are completed. Both were attractively priced and will ultimately provide Brickell renters with highly competitive rental prices. Both developments were backed by a high percentage of investors who will also likely lease their units to wait for the next upturn in the condo market.
The Sail on Brickell was also mentioned in the article as being another development that has sought to rent its remaining inventory. I was not aware that Renzi Development had failed to close on it 152 total units until I read this story. I wasn’t surprised, however, given that it is a second-tier condo development in Brickell that has been riddled by mortgage fraud. As a result, the Sail on Brickell will no longer be included in the Brickell Condo Index. It will eventually be replaced by Latitude on the River once it has closed on all of its units.
As for Midtown 2, I think they’ll be lucky to get rental rates of $1.75 per square foot. The “rent and wait” option doesn’t make economic sense for this development, in my opinion. The developers of the Sail on Brickell, which doesn’t reside on Brickell Avenue, will also have difficulties in making their rental numbers work. I think one bedrooms there will eventually rent for around $1,250 per month.
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
Opera Tower Closings to Begin in September
In a previous post I stated that I heard closings at Opera Tower would begin in July. However, I confirmed today that this was inaccurate. Closings will begin in September for condo units on the first 21 floors of Opera Tower. I was told that closings on the remaining floors would begin in October. Opera Tower sent this letter to contract holders at the beginning of June. It provides important information regarding closings.
It will be interesting to see what happens there. Opera Tower has a total of 635 condo units made up of studios, one and two bedroom condos. That’s a lot of units coming onto the market given the current condition of the Miami real estate market. I think closings at Opera Tower will help reveal the true nature of the market at this time. It will act as a prologue to what will happen at other developments scheduled to begin closings in the next 12 months. It will be important to keep an eye on closings, or lack of closings, that occur at Opera Tower.
My prediction is that the developer of Opera Tower will get back a lot of units. It is a shame that the developer charges 13 percent of the sales price to contract holders who want to resell their contract. It would be in the best interest of the developer to help these contract holders, who are primarily investors, get their unit into the hands of an end-user. Many of these investors are looking to break-even or accept a small loss. With a 13 percent resale fee, however, it makes this nearly impossible. This will come back to bite the developer of Opera Tower in the ass. As of now, the best deal through the developer for an east facing unit is one priced at $509,000. It is on the 21st floor. That comes out to $485 per square foot. I think within six months we’ll see 2 bedrooms at Opera Tower priced below $400,000.
Midtown 2 was a recent large development to begin closings. Closings there began about a month and a half ago. Last week the South Florida Business Journal reported that 17 contract holders at Midtown 2, who want out of their contracts, filed a class action lawsuit against the developer. The attorney representing the plaintiffs is also planning a class action lawsuit representing contract holders of Midtown 4. This lawsuit could spell trouble for all developers if the judge rules in favor of the plaintiffs.
MLS Listings Continue to Grow at Midtown 2
Midtown 2 began closings for condo units around the middle of May 2007. Since that time, there has been an average of 1 to 2 newly listed condo units per day that have appeared on the MLS. I get notified with an email to my Blackberry whenever a new listing appears in the MLS in any of the newly constructed condo buildings so that I become one of the first to know when a great deal becomes available.
In the past two weeks listing activity has really picked up at Midtown 2. The good news is that a good number of people are actually closing on their units. The bad news is that these people are still looking to flip their condos. There’s also a good amount of units listed for rent at Midtown 2. That number will grow as more condo owners finish installing their floors, window treatments, light fixtures, etc. since the units come decorator-ready. Once that occurs, then most will likely place their condos on the market for sale or rent.
Prices at Midtown 2 have come down some in the past couple of weeks as condo owners are now realizing that units are not selling at their current price level. There have been zero closed sales and only one pending sale at this time. 1 bedroom condos currently start at $269,000, 2 bedrooms at $399,000 and 3 bedrooms at $665,000. As of now, the best deals available are the one bedroom listed for $269,000, which comes out to $328 per square foot, and the 2 bedroom listed at $399,000, or $353 per square foot.
I still feel that prices will continue to head south towards the $280-$360 per square foot range but recent prices have me optimistic that pricing will readjust much faster than initially anticipated. It usually takes about 12 months for owners to reach their “pain threshold” but maybe they are finally realizing that the market is much softer than they hoped.
Video & Picture Review of Platinum Condominium
I took a look at Platinum Condominium today and, overall, I was pretty impressed. Platinum Condominium is located at 480 NE 30 Street in the Design District of Miami. It is not a waterfront property but is situated just one block off Biscayne Bay, so the majority of units have a nice view of the water. Towards the end of this post I will provide my analysis on the building and discuss the availability for both sales and rentals at Platinum Condominium. I will also use the comments section to post any future listings that I feel are priced to move.
I shot a lot of video today and took a ton of pictures. The videos and pictures below will show you the exterior of Platinum Condominium as well as the lobby, swimming pool, hot tub, men’s locker room, and a few condo units. Be patient because the slideshows may take a little while to load, depending on your connection speed. I was able to shoot video and take pictures of a 2 bedroom unit located on the 7th floor. I also gained access to a 1 bedroom unit on the 10th floor but was only able to snap off a few pictures. The amenities and common areas looked about 95 percent complete which is very impressive. I would love to hear your thoughts on the building so please feel free to leave comments.
I found the exterior of the building to be quite beautiful with its curved balconies and high use of glass. The video and picture slideshow below will show you the exterior of Platinum Condominium.
I was very impressed with the lobby. It seems that white and silver are the prominent color themes throughout Platinum Condominium. It made for a very bright and clean looking lobby as you will see below.
The amenities are located on the sixth floor of the building. I found my way into the men’s locker room which had a sauna, steam room, and massage room.
The doors providing access to the club room, business center and fitness center were locked but I did take a peek through the windows. All three were done nicely. The fitness center was a bit small but that is common with most condominium buildings, especially in this price range. I then made my way outside to the swimming pool and sundeck area of Platinum Condominium. Take a look for yourself.
The pictures and video below are of a 2 bedroom plus den with 2 full bathrooms. It has 1,383 square feet of living space and a 386 square foot balcony. As you will see, the unit comes “decorator-ready” which means that the condo comes without flooring, baseboards, light fixtures or painted walls. The unit faces east and has magnificent views of Biscayne Bay. This particular unit is listed at a little under $360 per square foot.
Here are the pictures that I took of the 1 bedroom. This particular unit has 826 square feet of living space. There are also two triangular shaped balconies, one off the living room and one off the bedroom. This unit is only available for rent and is listed at $1,700 per month.
Analysis
Keep in mind that this analysis is based on comparing Platinum Condominium to similar buildings that have units with prices in the same ballpark. I am comparing apples to apples. This is my own subjective review and should be accepted as such.
Overall, I think Platinum Condominium is a great building. I like the fact that it only has a total of 119 condo units in the building. It isn’t a monster building with 400-plus units like we’ll be seeing in the coming months from developments such as Latitude on the River and The 1800 Club. Platinum Condominium has a total of 22 floors with 7 units per floor (the first 5 floors are used for parking). Almost every unit in the building will have some sort of bay view because of the way the building is angled and the fact that there aren’t any tall buildings in that area.
I’ve seen buildings with a lot better amenities and common areas but for a building of this size I think they did a great job.
In my opinion, the condo units were tastefully done. The kitchens are really nice with their granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and custom wood Italian cabinetry. There is plenty of cabinet space and I liked the fact that there is an island with additional cabinet space below.
The bedrooms and living rooms weren’t huge but they weren’t small either. The walk-in closets were rather large though. I liked the floor-to-ceiling windows which extended 9 feet high and spanned the length of the condo unit.
The bathrooms were okay. I didn’t care too much for the marble floors that they went with but that’s just my taste. I also felt that they were a bit small as they lacked sufficient storage space to keep towerls and toiletries.
The only downside to Platinium Condominium is the neigbhorhood. It isn’t a bad neighborhood, but there isn’t a whole lot to do within walking distance but that is slowly changing. A Starbucks is opening at the corner of Biscayne Boulevard and NE 30 Street by the end of the year and the Shoppes at Midtown should also be completed by the end of the year as well. As of now, about half of the stores at Shoppes at Midtown have already opened. These include: Super Target, Loehman’s, Marshalls, West Elm, Circuit City and several others. In my opinion, the area is still about 3-5 years away from being one of the premier neighborhoods in Miami. There are a lot of future development plans for Biscayne Boulevard which will eventually make it a happening neighborhood. Platinum Condominium is only 15 blocks from the Entertainment District of Miami and the new Carnival Center for the Performing Arts, a 5 minute drive to South Beach, and 12 minutes from Miami International Airport by car.
Grade:
Lobby: 8.5/10
Amenities: 8.5/10
Kitchen: 9.0/10
Bathrooms: 7.5/10
Space/Size: 8.5
Neighborhood: 6
Pricing:
For the most part, the units listed for sale are still priced a bit high, in my opinioin, but there are a few exceptional deals. There’s a 2 bedroom on the 16th floor with 1,007 square feet that was just listed yesterday for $349,900. That comes out to about $348 per square foot. For this type of building, that is already a solid deal, but if you can negotiate that down to around $330 per square foot then I think you can’t go wrong. The one bedrooms in the building right now start at $340,000. That is for a condo unit that is 819 square feet. That shows just how well the 2 bedroom for $349,000 is priced. I think condo prices at Platinum Condominium will settle into the $340-$420 per square foot range.
The one bedroom rentals at Platinum Condominium are pretty well priced but I feel that the 2 bedrooms need to come down quite a bit. The one bedrooms range from $1,500-$2,200 per month. I think those will settle into the $1,300-$1,800 price range. The two bedrooms range from $2,500-$3,200. I think those will end up going for $1,800-$2,400 per month. The building is nice but it isn’t located in Brickell, so anything higher isn’t justifiable.
If you would like to receive current listings in the building, please feel free to contact me and I will be more than happy to email them to you.
When the Levee Breaks – Miami Condo Market Springs a Leak
The famous song, “When the Levee Breaks”, was originally written by Kansas Joe McCoy and Memphis Minnie in 1929, then re-worked and re-released by Led Zepplin in 1971. It was a song that focused on the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927. Eighty years later Miami, Florida has a different kind of flood…a flood of new condominium units looking to wreak havoc on the Miami real estate market. Two new condo developments, Midtown 2 and Platinum Condominium, recently began closings. These are the most recent of 8,000+ condo units to come to market throughout Miami-Dade County in 2007.
The pictures below will show exterior shots of both developments. I will follow this post up with an in depth analysis of each building, complete with interior pictures and videos. Each entry will analyze the rental and sales markets for each building and provide my professional insight as to whether these buildings are priced accurately and if any good deals are available.
This may be the first of several leaks before the levee breaks and the Miami condo market becomes flooded as Opera Tower, Latitude on the River and Ten Museum Park are due to open within the next couple of months. The balance of 8,000+ units will close later in the year . I will leave you with an excerpt of the lyrics from the song “When the Levee Breaks”:
Cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good, Now, cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good, When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.
Judgment Day Just Around the Corner for the Miami Condo Market
There are a number of premier condo buildings that are scheduled for completion in the next six months throughout Miami. These include, but are not limited to, the following:
It will be interesting to see, in the coming months, where prices will go from here. The number of distressed properties has been climbing throughout Miami-Dade County and that number should escalate as these new units hit the market. A year ago properties in Miami were selling like hotcakes. 12 months later the market has cooled considerably in Miami, as has the overall national real estate market. Vulture capitalists have been circling the skies of Miami for over two years, waiting for the right moment to swoop in and scavenge the real estate market here in Miami. 12 months ago vulture capitalists were told that their moment would never come as some real estate markets, throughout the United States, turned in double-digit growth. However, the next six months might be just the moment that they have been waiting for as national foreclosure filings has increased 35 percent over the previous year, according to RealtyTrac. Coupled with the increasing number of new properties that will come on board in the coming months, Miami may be ripe for the picking. The question is “Will the vulture capitalists provide a cushioned bottom for the inevitable judgment day that awaits the condo market?”. “Can their deep pockets provide the support that this market needs or will we find out just how deep the rabbit-hole goes?”
As the day of judgment comes we, here at Miami Condo Investments, will be ready to seek out the best opportunities and pass them along to our faithful blog subscribers. We plan to provide a complete analysis on all condo investment opportunities that meet our criteria, along with a comparative market analysis, pictures of the properties and, in some cases, video so our subscribers can fully grasp the opportunity.
