Miami Condo Index – Brickell Key – October 2007
The following statistics were collected on October 27, 2007 but I wasn’t able to compile and publish the numbers until today.
Each month since I began this index, the average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell Key have gone down slightly when compared to the prior month. This month is no different. The average price per square foot of the ten condos, which represent the Brickell Key Condo Index, fell to $501.55 this month from last month’s figure of $505.30. The weight-adjusted average also fell to $497.82 per square foot versus last month’s weight-adjusted average of $501.64.
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the previous six months has also continually gone down each month since I began this index. The average price per square foot of condos sold within the last six months dropped to $430.08 from last month’s average of $432.94. The weight-adjusted average also fell to $424.57 from last month’s weight-adjusted average of $428.59.
- Brickell Key One – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $310.76
- Brickell Key Two – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $375.00
- Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $517.32
- Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $435.03
- Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $424.63
- Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $437.40
- One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $413.07
- St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $451.18
- Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $479.76
- Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $456.63
As with October’s Brickell Condo Index, I’ve provided the following snapshot to make it easier for everyone to make sense of the statistics above.
The first column, to the right of each condo development’s name, is the difference in the average sales and list prices for the statistics at the top, expressed as a percentage. As you can see, each development has an average six month sales price that is well below the list price that is prevalent in the market at each condo building in Brickell Key.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. I find this to be a very healthy number. The 10-15 percent range is considered average while the 15-20 percent range is beginning to approach dangerous levels. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. This indicates that the danger zone has been breached and caution should be heeded. Of the ten developments in the Brickell Key Condo Index, only Courvoisier Courts falls into this territory with 24.26 percent of the building currently on the market.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales since September’s Brickell Key Condo Index. As you can see, there are 16 pending sales in Brickell Key. The 7 pending sales at Carbonell and 3 at Isola may help to prevent each from penetrating the dangerous 20 percent mark next month. There’s been a total of 2 closed sales since last month’s statistics were presented. September revealed 3 closed sales while 4 transactions closed over the previous month in August. Hopefully, next month won’t reveal the lonely number of 1 or even 0. The One and Three Tequesta Point sisters brought their A-game this past month to prevent a goose egg from appearing in this month’s closed sales figure.
The sixth column shows you the difference in the average list prices from this and last month’s, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo buildings which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. One Tequesta Point was the only development that was able to muster an up-tick in prices for condos listed.
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this and last month’s, expressed as a percentage. The cells displayed in green show those which had an increase, the one in yellow reveals an unchanged condition while those in red reveal a decrease. You may notice that I colored St. Louis in green although it shows 0.00 percent. The average price per square foot of condos sold at St. Louis over the past six months actually inched up 2 cents per square foot. Carbonell and Two Tequesta Point were the only other two to increase. The rest of the bunch fell.
For months, I’ve been saying that Brickell Key is the best indicator that we have of the Miami condo market. Each month, list and sales prices in Brickell Key have come down steadily, as they should be. It’s almost as if we can count on it to provide a true picture.
I have a prediction, however. Take it for what you will because this is just my prediction. The Brickell Key Condo Index will continue on its steady decline. Most of the developments located on Brickell Key were completed prior to 2004, so speculative money in Miami, for the most part, doesn’t reside there. Brickell Key also enjoys a very small percentage of foreclosures and short-sales.
Brickell, however, with its high number of foreclosures and short-sales, prevalent mortgage fraud and large number of new condos coming onto the market will be much faster to correct itself. It won’t have a steady decline. It will crash beyond Brickell Key statistics but then rise at a much higher rate than condo developments in Brickell Key. I think Plaza on Brickell will act as a buoy. I’m not saying that prices at Plaza on Brickell won’t dip lower after closings. I’m just saying that as prices at Plaza on Brickell fall, so will other prices in Brickell but prices at Plaza will act as a floor.
The following graph displays what I have in mind. The line at the top, towards the beginning of the graph, represents Brickell, while the one below it represents Brickell Key. Sorry for the amateurish work but I still need to go trick-or-treating tonight.
It’s not exactly what I have in mind but it gives you an idea. I don’t think the average price per square foot of Brickell condo developments will rise at such a rapid pace as which is indicated by the final portion of the drawing above but I do think that it will fall below, then rise back above that of Brickell Key. The developments in Brickell will, for the most part, be much newer and will draw heavier demand. New speculative money already has their eye on Brickell. Brickell Key will bounce once buyers for Brickell condos flood the market and those who are left behind will look towards Brickell Key. Brickell Key should, in my opinion, sell above Brickell, but I think the world-renowned attention to Brickell, and its oversupply problem, will draw a level of demand that inverts the situation.
What do you all think? Does this make sense or am I out of my mind?
Will History Repeat Itself in Miami?
Earlier this week, I showed a few condos at Villa Regina to a lady who has owned a unit in the building since 1983. She and her husband purchased their condo in November of that year. She told me that for the first year and a half to two years only 25 condos were owned of the 208 total units. The bust had happened and nobody wanted to buy. The developer, Nicholas Morley, eventually went under and the building was later taken over by the FDIC. Nicholas Morley, was a big-time developer back then who was the equivalent of today’s Jorge Perez or Ugo Columbo.
She said that nobody would touch Villa Regina with a ten-foot pole for the first two years after she purchased because the building was either in receivership, meaning that it was undergoing foreclosure proceedings, or it had already been foreclosed upon. As a result, the common areas were under-maintained. The building didn’t have any security, air conditioning in the hallways, a concierge in the lobby nor valet service.
Before the building went into receivership, she, her husband and the condo owners who represented the other 24 units met each month to resolve the problems. They wanted answers. No, in fact, they wanted action. Each month, the condo board sent requests to the developer stating that they themselves would pay to have the building maintained 100 percent. The developer never answered their pleas.
After Villa Regina was foreclosed upon, there were rumors that Nicholas Morley wished to acquire the building from the FDIC for 10 cents on the dollar. The condo board sent letters to the FDIC to prevent this from happening. Nicholas Morley had made them suffer long enough and they didn’t wish to take any chances.
An investment group stepped up to the plate and purchased the remaining units at Villa Regina from the FDIC, a few years after she and her husband had purchased their condo. She stated that “almost overnight, there was interest in buying condos at Villa Regina”. I asked her for how much the investment group purchased the remaining units. She didn’t know but guessed that it was around 50 cents on the dollar. The level of maintenance that was initially promised had finally been restored. People wanted in because the dark cloud that hung over Villa Regina had been lifted. The investment group was then able to sell the remaining units for a profit.
It was especially interesting to hear, from the above source, that the building fell into the hands of the FDIC. This indicates to me that the bank which loaned the money to the developer also went under as well. I don’t expect buildings in Miami on the horizon, however, to fall into the hands of the FDIC for too long, if at all. The world is too widely connected nowadays. Information exchanges hands at such a rapid pace. Investment groups will act much faster in today’s era than that of the 1980s. If a bank yells, “Help!”, several investment groups will be there to say, “Help has arrived, but how bad do you need it?”.
There’s been talk that the current boom and bust in Miami is worse than had existed in the early 1980s. I’ve advised my readers time and again to watch out for the new digs. If you feel like buying, then look for those buildings that were built prior to 2000. They have much more stability because most units in those buildings are owner-occupied. Investors/speculators flocked to the new buildings and those that were yet to be built. The possibility of the above occurring in a new condo development in Miami is likely within the next couple of years. That’s why I’ve been keeping a close eye on each new development’s ability to close units. If you are interested in buying in a new development then you must be aware of the default rate that is occurring there. Those with a default rate higher than 30 percent, in my opinion, will be ones to stay away from until much of this excess supply is purchased.
The oversupply problem in Miami does indeed currently exist and is worse than that which existed in the early 1980s. However, the level of demand that currently exists far outpaces that of which was evident in that decade. Miami is now on the map. Miami now has world-wide attention. The strength of foreign currencies relative to the U.S. Dollar has made it more alluring for foreigners to buy here. It has also become a mecca for second-home buyers, retirees and those who wish to live in tropical climes throughout the year.
The opening lines of the movie Armageddon says, “It happened before. It will happen again. It’s just a question of when”. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself in Miami and, if so, then to what extent.
Flamingo South Beach: Then & Now
Correction: I’ve been told that the picture above is from the 1920s and is of the old Flamingo Hotel.
I viewed the above picture a few days ago. I found it simply amazing to see what Miami Beach and Flamingo South Beach looked like in the 1960s. There were so many parcels of land still untouched back then. What a world of change 40+ years can bring to a city.
Flamingo South Beach became the largest condo-conversion in the state of Florida in early 2006. It is composed of three towers with 1,688 total units and is in the process of undergoing a multi-million dollar restoration. Currently, the south tower has been fully sold and Chicago-based MCZ Development is now working to sell out the north tower. The center tower, which rises above the two others and has more modern finishes and better views, will likely be available for sale in late 2008 if MCZ Development exercises their rights to it.
What is interesting to note about the picture above is that a swimming pool didn’t exist back then at Flamingo South Beach. Nowadays, the swimming pool area is where the party is each sunny weekend afternoon.
Of course, the picture directly above wasn’t taken on a weekend afternoon. In fact, I took it in August of 2006 on a Tuesday afternoon. The topless and G-string clad beauties at Flamingo South Beach usually bask under the South Florida sun on the weekends.
Flamingo South Beach is well known for its great amenities. It is the closest that you’ll come to resort-style living in South Beach. Investors love Flamingo South Beach because rental rates are high and the development allows short-term rentals. A gorgeous place to stay while on vacation in South Beach.
Truth be known, prices likely won’t appreciate at Flamingo South Beach for 2-3 years sheerly based on the high number of units that have been and will eventually be fully converted. The long-term outlook, however, for Flamingo South Beach is great. It’s a little piece of paradise within a paradise city.
A Picture & Video Tour of 50 Biscayne in Downtown Miami
I had walked into 50 Biscayne a few times prior to today but didn’t have my camcorder on me each time. I wanted to share with everyone what a great job The Related Group of Florida did with this development so I decided to go back to 50 Biscayne today with the objective of sharing some pictures and video of the common areas with my readers.
Today, I was able to get shots of the lobby, swimming pool deck, fitness center and views to the east from the 10th floor pool deck at 50 Biscayne.
Below you will find a picture slideshow of each at 50 Biscayne:
The following will show you the video that I shot today of the lobby, swimming pool deck, fitness center and views to the east at 50 Biscayne:
I took a peak into the two club rooms but each was locked so I wasn’t able to shoot either of those. Both looked very well decorated, however, from the peaks I got through the doors of each. The valet drop-off area was also very impressive, with a cascading water feature along the wall. I forgot to get shots of the business center at 50 Biscayne located on the main floor.
Of the 529 total condos at 50 Biscayne, I’ve been able to find 33 recorded closings. There can be a 2-3 week delay in recording a closing. Hundreds more are likely to follow in the coming months. Closings began October 1, 2007. I’m expecting about an 18.7 percent default rate at 50 Biscayne. That’s just my estimation, however. Take it for what you want. Enjoy!
2 Bedroom/2 Bath Bank-Owned Foreclosure at Murano Grande in South Beach
A 2 bedroom/2 bath bank-owned condo at Murano Grande just became available yesterday. The unit has 1,437 square feet of interior space, with marble floors throughout, and is listed at $899,000, or $626 per square foot. The price is negotiable. The condo is located on the 23rd floor and has panoramic views of Biscayne Bay, the city and the Atlantic Ocean.
The latest South Beach Condo Index reveals that units at Murano Grande have sold for an average price per square foot of $752 over the past six months.
The following are other 09 units currently listed in the building:
- Unit 809 – $875,000
- Unit 709 – $885,000
- Unit 1009 – $944,000
- Unit 1909 – $999,999
- Unit 1109 – $1,025,000
- Unit 1709 – $1,199,500
There have been two 09 line condos at Murano Grande that have closed within the past 12 months. The first is unit 2109 which closed for $950,000 on December 21, 2006. The second is unit 1809 which closed on November 11, 2006 for $1,150,000. None have closed within the past six months.
Click on the following link to view the MLS information pertaining to unit 2309 at Murano Grande. Contact me if you or someone you know has an interest in viewing this bank-owned foreclosure in person.
Avanti at The Villages of Normandy Isle – Another Developer Closeout Auction
Avanti at The Villages of Normandy Isle is a multi-story townhouse community located at 155-193 North Shore Drive in the neighborhood of Normandy Isle in Miami Beach. I’ve visited several condos at Avanti in the past and was very impressed. The layouts were great and most had a large rooftop terrace that would be an ideal place for a Jacuzzi hot tub.
Apparently, the developer still has six unsold units and has decided to auction them. Two of them will be sold “absolute” to the highest bidder. Five of the six units are 3 bedroom/3.5 bath units with 3,108-3,440 square feet. The sixth unit is a 2 bedroom/2.5 with 2,790 square feet. Avanti was completed at the end of 2005. Has the developer been holding onto these this whole time?
At present time, there are ten 3 bedroom/3.5 bath units that are listed in the MLS. They range in price from $700,000 to $1,155,000.
A cashier’s check in the amount of $10,000 is required to bid on the day of the auction. Any winning bids will be required to provide the balance of 10 percent of the total contract price in the form of a personal check. There will be a 10 percent buyer’s premium for units sold at this auction. Closings shall occur on or before 45 days following the auction. All units are sold “as-is” and without any contingencies.
The auction will be held Saturday, November 3, 2007 at 12pm at Avanti. Contact me if you have an interest in bidding at this auction and would like to view the units.
Hudson & Marshall Auction Results
Below you will find the results for the condos of interest that were auctioned this past Saturday:
- Cite on the Bay – Unit #110 – 3 bedroom/2 bath – 1,475 SF – $300,000
- Four Ambassadors – Unit #344 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 940 SF – $169,500
- Loft Downtown – Unit #204 – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 784 SF – $128,500
- The Club at Brickell Bay – Unit #1823 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,105 SF – $392,500
- Vue at Brickell – Unit #1215 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,116 SF – $340,000
- Vue at Brickell – Unit #2307 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 814 SF – $222,000
There were a large amount of people in attendance at the Hudson & Marshall auction on Saturday. There also seemed to be a higher percentage of active bidders in the crowd than I have seen at past auctions. Regardless, the first 20-30 properties that were auctioned all failed to crack the $100,000 mark. A condo in Homestead was auctioned for $56,000, which was the lowest that I saw a property go. This auction had a 5 percent buyer’s premium.
Slowly, throughout the rest of the day, properties began to garner higher and higher prices. With the exception of the 3 bedroom at Cite on the Bay and the one bedroom at Vue at Brickell, I was expecting the condos to go for less. I think the three bedroom at Cite on the Bay for $300,000 was the only great deal of the six condos above. The one bedroom at Vue at Brickell for $222,000 was a good deal but given the high number of short-sales and foreclosures in the building I think it went for the right amount.
I was shocked that the two bedrooms at the Vue at Brickell and The Club at Brickell Bay went for so much. I’m not sure about the unit at The Club at Brickell Bay, but I know that the one at Vue at Brickell needed some work. It had mold in the unit and the carpets needed to be replaced. In my opinion, the highest bidder of each of these units paid too much. That’s just my opinion though.
Latest Prices at Ten Museum Park
Below you will find the latest prices for units at Ten Museum Park. These are defaulted units that were taken back by the developer. They have been discounted 15 percent off of their original prices set in January of 2004. Contact me if you’re interested in viewing any of these units.
1 Bedroom/1.5 Bath – 858 interior SF/143 exterior SF
- 1608 – $335,000
- 3008 – $350,000
- 1905 – $325,000
2 Bedrooms/2.5 Baths – 1,239 interior SF/192 exterior SF
2 Bedrooms/2.5 Baths – 1,906-1,949 interior SF/192 exterior SF
- 1602 – $799,000
- 2504 – $825,000
3 Bedrooms + den/5 Baths -4,005 interior SF/533 exterior SF
4 Bedrooms + den/5.5 Baths – 4,400 interior SF/700 exterior SF
Brickell Condo Index – October 2007
As I mentioned in a previous post, The Sail on Brickell will no longer be included in the Brickell Condo Index. I also made a change to the way that the statistics in the third section of the index are presented. It should now be much easier to make sense of the monthly figures. This came as a suggestion from a reader (Thank you!). My comments on this month’s numbers are also found towards the bottom of this post.
The average price per square foot of condos listed has dropped this month to $518.91 from last month’s figure of $525.88. Last month, The Sail on Brickell had an average list price of $507.11 per square foot, so the drop would have been greater had it been included this month and its average remained around the same. The weight-adjusted average also dropped to $521.29 per square foot from last month’s figure of $530.15.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the past six months actually went up this month to $481.69 from last month’s figure of $467.47. The increase would have been less had The Sail on Brickell been included. Last month, it had an average of $386.41 per square foot. If its statistic remained the same, the average would have been $476.39 per square foot. Much of the increase is also attributed to The Mark on Brickell which I will discuss below. The weight-adjusted average went up to $495.31 per square foot from last month’s average of $486.30.
Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:
- Atlantis on Brickell – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $298.11
- Brickell on the River North – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $415.74
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $440.18
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $523.78
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $675.30
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $331.99
- Jade Brickell – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $723.60
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $329.67
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $430.12
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $672.22
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $463.75
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $454.32
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $660.39
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $589.06
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $388.54
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $475.30
The numbers below are a bit difficult to read but if you save and open the picture file it should make it easier.
The first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, found above, expressed as a percentage. You will notice that Emerald at Brickell, The Club at Brickell Bay, The Mark on Brickell, The Palace and Vue at Brickell are the only developments that have a higher average sales price than list price.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. I find this to be a healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. This is a very unhealthy figure and should act as a warning sign. Is it coincidence that Jade, The Club at Brickell Bay and Vue at Brickell, which have all been riddled by mortgage fraud appear in red? I think not! I think this statistic is highly important. It provides great insight as to which condo developments will be next to have price cuts and those that may actually go up in price in the coming months. A leading indicator, if you may.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past month. As I mentioned, last month a large portion of the pending sales at The Club at Brickell Bay are very old. Only three of them have been pending for five months or less. It is good to see, however, that each development has at least one pending sale. The number of closed sales within the past month has dropped to seven, which is its lowest point since I began tracking this statistic. Not good…not good at all!
The sixth column show you the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. As you see, The Vue at Brickell had a price drop for condos listed of 8.57 percent. Much of this is attributed to the ever-growing number of short-sale and foreclosure units in the building. In fact, I have counted 24 units in the MLS that fit this bill. That represents 7.43 percent of the overall building. Yikes!
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and last month’s expressed as a percentage. The 17.54 percent price increase over last month’s statistic at The Mark on Brickell jumped out at me. Of course, I had to investigate. The good news is that I didn’t find any fraudulent transactions that have occurred within the last month. Thank God! The bad news, however, is that I did discover two transactions that closed in June that I didn’t notice before that appear to be fraudulent. You be the judge! A 2 bedroom/2 bath with 1,200 square feet that was listed at $890,000 closed for $845,000, or $704 per square foot, on June 30, 2007. Another 2 bedroom/2 bath also with 1,200 square feet that was listed for $850,000 closed for $840,000, or $700 per square foot, on June 6, 2007. In each case, the listing agent was also the buyer’s agent. In the second case, the unit previously closed in January of this year for a price of $560,000. Looks like fraud, smells like fraud…what do you think? The average price increase also became more pronounced at The Mark on Brickell because a few other sales that sold in the $300’s and $400’s per square foot fell off the average.
The large drop in prices, over the past month for condos sold over the previous six months, at Neo Vertika were mainly a result of the unit that my client closed on a few weeks ago for $242 per square foot.
100+ Properties to be Auctioned This Saturday
Over 100 properties located throughout South Florida will be auctioned this Saturday in Fort Lauderdale. I’ve known about this auction for quite some time but wasn’t sure whether or not I should write a post about it for a couple of reasons. One, most of the properties are predominantly single family homes while my blog only discusses condominiums. Two, only a handful of the properties are located in Miami and Miami Beach, which is where I focus most of my energy.
I decided to go ahead and inform everybody about it though because a few of the condos reside in developments that I’ve previously mentioned. For example, two condos from Vue at Brickell will be auctioned on Saturday while The Club at Brickell Bay will have one. No surprise there!
Here is a list of some of the condos in some of the more well known developments that will be auctioned:
- Cite on the Bay – Unit #110 – 3 bedroom/2 bath – 1,475 SF
- Four Ambassadors – Unit #344 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 940 SF
- Loft Downtown – Unit #204 – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 784 SF
- The Club at Brickell Bay – Unit #1823 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,105 SF
- Vue at Brickell – Unit #1215 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,116 SF
- Vue at Brickell – Unit #2307 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 814 SF
None of these developments are particularly exceptional but it’ll still be interesting to see at what price they will be auctioned. I think the unit at the Loft Downtown has a good chance to go for around $100,000 or less.
Check out the Hudson & Marshall website for more information about this auction.
By the way, I did noticed that Deutsche Bank is now in possession of a large number of the properties that will be auctioned on Saturday.
