Blue Condominium – 1 Bedroom/1.5 Bath Foreclosure – $229,000
I was stunned when I saw this foreclosure listing at Blue Condominium. $229,000 for a 1 bedroom condo at Blue Condominium!!! In 2006, this unit would have likely been priced for around $380,000. The MLS listing shows it to be a 1 bedroom/2 bath condo but I don’t think that information is accurate, unless the owner added a second full bathroom. It is most likely a 1 bedroom/1.5 bath condo. The listing also makes no mention of it being a foreclosure but I looked it up and it is owned by Deutsche Bank.
This is a great buy for someone who is looking to purchase a 1 bedroom condo in a high-end waterfront condo building in Miami. The location may not be that great (the northern end of Edgewater Miami) but that is already reflected in the price, in my opinion. If this condo sells for around $200,000 then we’re now talking break-even cash flow with 20 percent down. I haven’t heard the term “break-even cash flow” for quite some time. Is that where prices are headed? I think we all know the answer.
Take a look at the Blue Condominium rental listings to get an idea of the type of monthly rent that this condo would bring. Feel free to export the listings to Microsoft Excel by clicking the “Export” link at the top of the grid.
By the way, for those of you not local to Miami, the highway in the picture above takes you right into Miami Beach.
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – February 2008
Below, you will find the Miami-Dade County condo inventory and months of supply figures for February 2008. The first box to the left reveals the total number of condos that are currently available for sale on the MLS throughout Miami-Dade County. The second box discloses the total number of closed sales that occurred in the month of January 2008. The third and fourth boxes show the months and years of condo supply in Miami-Dade County. As you can see, the figures are also subdivided into various price ranges to reveal which part of the condo market has been affected the most.
Since the January 2008 update, the overall condo supply in Miami-Dade County has increased about 10.3 percent. Most the increase, however, was due to a 25.1 percent increase in the $0-$249,999 price range, where about 41 percent of the overall condo inventory resides. The $250,000-$499,999 and $500,000-$999,999 price ranges had slight increases of 4.5 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. The $1,000,000-$2,499,999 price range had a big drop of 25.6 percent and the $2,500,000-$4,999,999 price range had an even bigger drop of 39.8 percent in its condo supply.
As many would expect, the lower part of the market is experiencing the most problems, mainly due to it now being much more difficult to obtain financing for those looking to buy in this segment of the market. Those in the market to buy a condo for over $1M, oftentimes, can do so without any financing whatsoever.
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami (not other areas of Dade County such as Miami Beach, Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach, etc.):
Miami has continued its upward climb in condo supply this month with a 24.3 percent increase since last month. Again, we see that the lower and upper parts of the market have performed quite dissimilarly. The condo supply in the $0-$249,999 price range has increased 20.6 percent while the $250,000-$499,999 price range has gone up a shocking 62 percent. On the flip-side, the condo supply in the $500,000-$999,999 price range has gone down 26.7 percent and the $1,000,000-$2,499,999 has dropped almost 50 percent.
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami Beach:
Overall, Miami Beach experienced a 19 percent drop in its condo supply levels since last month. I was a bit surprised but I probably shouldn’t be. Miami Beach did not come close to experiencing the level of development that we recently saw in Miami. Foreign and out-of-state buyers are also much more likely to buy a condo in Miami Beach than they are somewhere in Miami. I think we will continue to see a widening gap between the Miami and Miami Beach condo supply figures in the months ahead.
Miami Condo Market Highlighted by the Major Media
Kevin Tomlinson, of the South Beach Condo Blog, hit a home run yesterday with his post entitled “All You Ever Wanted to Know About Miami & Miami Beach Real Estate: A Video Round-up”. The “Today Show” was in sunny Florida yesterday morning to report about the Miami and Miami Beach real estate market along with Barbara Corcoran, the queen of real estate. Barbara’s words are highly regarded in the real estate industry, so be sure to watch the video to the end to hear what she has to say.
Miami has evolved over the years. It was once regarded by many as a flashy and dangerous place to visit. It still remains flashy but it is no longer considered dangerous. The following video portrays the new Miami:
Prices have come down 25-30% since late 2005 to early 2006. Recently, some foreclosures have been purchased at a 50 percent discount. I receive phone calls every day from investors and end-users who want to buy at 50 cents on the dollar. If they want to buy at a 50 percent discount from today’s prices then forget about it. That would amount to buying at 25 cents on the dollar from the height of the market. There are now opportunities to buy at 50 cents on the dollar from 2005/2006 prices.
Foreign Buyers Finding Deals in the Miami Condo Market
On February 20, 2008, Reutors published an article entitled “Miami Condos are ‘for sale’ for Foreign Buyers“. The article discusses how foreign buyers are stepping in to buy condos at a discount in Florida, where prices have dropped “20 to 30 percent”. The appreciation of their currency is another motivating factor in their decision to buy Miami condos. The story particularly focuses on Canadian buyers, who have a particular interest in buying within the United States, because the Canadian Dollar “has gained 25 percent against the greenback in the last two years”. The article also discusses that these buyers are willing to pay for these condos with cash.
I, for one, have met with a large influx of foreign buyers within the past six months from countries such as Ukraine, China, Russia, Canada, England, Italy, Germany, various countries in South America and territories of the United States, such as Puerto Rico. Many of these buyers came prepared to pay for South Florida condos with cash. In fact, two of the three pending sales that I have scheduled to close in March are cash deals, with no financing contingencies. Great deals in beachfront condo buildings are exactly what these foreign buyers have in mind.
The Reuters article also revealed the following which I found very interesting:
In a study by the National Association of Realtors last year, Florida was the top destination for foreign buyers, accounting for 26 percent of all transactions, ahead of California at 16, Texas at 10 and Arizona at 6 percent.
More than 7 percent of all Florida homes were sold to foreigners, the study found, and 65 percent of Realtors said they had brokered at least one foreign deal.
I would think that Miami homes sold accounted for much higher than 7 percent since Miami should have a much larger percentage of foreign buyers than the rest of Florida.
I’d also like to note that new buyers for Miami condos aren’t only coming from countries abroad. I’ve also found buyers from New Jersey, New York, California, Illinois and Texas. I will admit that local buyers remain a very small percentage of my overall business. In a nutshell, if I had never started this blog I’d probably be out of business. This blog allows me the opportunity to reach people all across the world (including the two people in Ethiopia and Afghanistan who found my site within the past week, according to Google Analytics). The Miami condo market is not a local market…it is a global market. It may not seem cheap to local buyers, but to foreign buyers Miami and Miami Beach condos are bargains to them.
New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for February 2008
This month, I decided to make two separate graphs to show the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began. The first graph, found immediately below, reveals the closing rates for Miami condos which had their first closing prior to November 1 2007. The condo developments are also now ordered according to when closings began, with the first to the left.
Below you will find the date that each condo development in the graph above began closings:
Not much has changed with this group of condos since the last update was provided in January. Ten Museum Park and Latitude on the River inched up about 2-3 percentage points. Star Lofts on the Bay remained the exact same and Onyx on the Bay was able to close one additional condo. The Loft Downtown 2 moved up a little over 5 percentage points and 50 Biscayne moved up almost 7 percentage points. A few different sources have told me that there have been about 200 defaulted condos at 50 Biscayne. This is in line with the 239 condos that are currently unaccounted for according to public records. Several people have left comments here stating that the developer has chosen to lease many of the defaulted condos and ride out the storm rather than sell to a bulk buyer. I’m sure other developers will follow suit, which will decrease the expected inventory levels for a few years.
Below you will find the date that each condo development in the graph above began closings:
The graph above includes a group of condos which began closings within the past three months. I was surprised to see that 1800 Club has fared the best, although it should be noted that it did begin closings first amongst this group. Brickell on the River 2 has made much progress since the end of January when closed condos represented about 4 1/2 percent. Quantum on the Bay has done well considering that it has only received a TCO on the first of its two towers. Driving by a few times within the last couple of weeks, I did notice more lights on at night than one would expect from a condo development that just started closings about a month and a half ago. Same goes with 1800 Club. With a closing rate of about 20 percent, Apogee South Beach is off to a good start. Prices there start at about $2.5M. Plaza on Brickell has also only received a TCO on the first of its two towers. We should see much improvement from most of the condo buildings in the above group within the next month or two.
You may have noticed that One Bal Harbour and Midtown 2 are not found in this month’s update. I chose not to include One Bal Harbour because the Regent condo-hotel units have now begun closings and I did not want to intermingle the two. I do know, however, that WCI Communities has been quite successful in closing units at One Bal Harbour. They’ve closed around 150-155 condos out of a total of 185. I also know that several have been reassigned and are currently under contract. I expect WCI to have only a couple developer units left at One Bal Harbour by the end of March.
I didn’t include 2 Midtown because I noticed that a bunch of deeds have been re-recorded there. It would have taken me forever to sort through that mess. The following was written along the left-hand side of the re-recorded deeds: “This deed is being re-recorded to correct vesting on title”.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing gets recorded.
Flamingo South Beach North Tower Canceled?
Earlier this week, I received an email from someone stating that they had heard rumors that the North Tower of Flamingo South Beach had been canceled. I asked around and it seems that, while nothing has officially been announced, there are plans to give deposit money back to contract holders of units in the North Tower of Flamingo South Beach and to maintain it as a rental building. I’m assuming that the option to convert the Center Tower will not be exercised by MCZ/Centrum and that it too will remain as a rental building.
This is actually great news for owners of condos in the South Tower at Flamingo South Beach, as well as for owners of condos located in the surrounding neighborhood. There will now be much less condo inventory hitting the market. The three towers comprising Flamingo South Beach have a total of 1,688 units. I’m not sure how many of these are situated in the North and Center Towers, but my guess would be that it is something close to 1,100 units. That’s 1,100 less condos that would have otherwise become available on the market (if my estimate is accurate).
I’m just wondering if this will mean that the plans for the courtyard will now be scrapped. The renderings for the courtyard looked fantastic! I’m sure this additional element calculated into the decision-making process of someone who purchased a condo in the South Tower of Flamingo South Beach.
Cash is King in the Miami Condo Market!
Two local business papers, Daily Business Review and South Florida Business Journal, published articles yesterday morning discussing the fact that some lenders have blacklisted certain condo developments in Miami.
However, a few condo developments have it worse than others in Miami. The Daily Business Review article revealed that sellers in condo buildings riddled with foreclosures find that it is nearly impossible for potential buyers to obtain financing. The article uses Vue at Brickell to illustrate the point and states that “the project is widely avoided in the lending industry”. The same holds true for other condo developments in Miami that have experienced a high number of foreclosures. The doors are now closed! Well, unless, of course, you are paying in full with the almighty greenback.
BankUnited seems to have blacklisted the entire Miami condo market with over 160 condo developments on its list that are located in Miami. I’m not even exaggerating. I went through the list and tried to find one well known condo building in Miami that wasn’t on the list. The list included everything from condo developments built in the 1980s to condo buildings that haven’t even broken ground yet, and some that probably never will. The only building that I could think of that isn’t on the list is Grovenor House. Anybody else find one? Here is the BankUnited blacklist.
Declining market value and high investor concentration are the top two reasons cited by BankUnited for various condo developments being on their list. However, the other reasons provided are actually much more interesting. How about the pending litigation concerning structural issues at The Mark on Brickell and The Palace? I’ve known about the structural issues at The Mark on Brickell for months but I hadn’t heard anything about The Palace.
As a contrarian investor, one might say that the best time to buy real estate is in a market where everyone is saying “Mercy! I give up”. Looks like a few banks are finally throwing in the towel on the Miami condo market. Once they all follow suit, then that’s when the real bargains in Miami will begin to enfold.
Apogee South Beach – Now That’s a Master Bathroom!!!
Yesterday morning, I had the opportunity to visit a few condo units at Apogee South Beach located at 800 South Pointe Drive in South Beach. The word “sensational” doesn’t even come close to fully encompassing the quality that has gone into this condo development. Apogee South Beach is in a league of its own, with quality that is unmatched by any condo development in South Florida.
The following are a few shots of the master bathroom that I took yesterday inside one of the two condos at Apogee South Beach. Trust me, the kitchens are equally as impressive, if not more so. I’ll likely share the photos of the kitchen at Apogee with everyone in a future post.
Miami Picture of the Day
Marina Blue – Closings to Begin This Week
The moment has finally arrived. Closings will begin at Marina Blue this week. I’m not quite sure which exact day they will begin but I know someone who has his closing scheduled for this Friday morning. My guess is that the first closing took place earlier today though.
I’ve been looking quite forward for Marina Blue to be completed. Architecturally, Marina Blue is my favorite of the new buildings that have arrived on the Miami condo market within the past 12 months, and of those that will arrive within the upcoming 12 months. Marina Blue is very impressive to look at while driving down Biscayne Boulevard or driving west over the MacArthur Causeway.
Everyone already knows that the views from within the Marina Blue condos are going to be some of the best in Miami. I can’t think of one other building in Miami that offers unobstructed, direct bay views from EVERY unit in the building. (Someone help me here…there has to be at least one other building in Miami that offers this). The 12 line may have slightly obstructed views but this remains to be seen.
If Marina Blue ends up meeting just 90 percent of everyone’s expectations then I think it’s going to be a winner!
