The Brickell Rental Market Under a Microscope
The rental market is a very interesting segment of the real estate market, not only for potential tenants on the prowl for a new pad but also current landlords and would-be investors trying to assess the demand for rentals across various neighborhoods and, more specifically, across various condo developments. Only a few years ago, the supply of rentals in Miami far outpaced demand. As a result, rental prices plunged and renters ruled the day. Fast forward to the present and an entirely different rental market is upon us in Miami. Nowadays, rental inventory is being absorbed quickly and overall rental prices are on the rise. For those living in Miami, I’m sure this a message that you have not only read in the local paper but have also heard directly from friends and family who have experienced it firsthand.
Obviously, not all neighborhoods and condo developments are created equal. Factors such as price, location, views, quality and recommendations from peers help determine rental demand. As a result, one would assume that demand can vary greatly from building to building and even neighborhood to neighborhood. Which condo developments are the leaders when it comes to rental demand and which are the laggards? More importantly, which buildings should we expect to see prices climb in the near future?
In this first segment, I decided to analyze the Brickell rental market to answer the above questions. Below, you will find a spreadsheet containing rental data for various condo developments in Brickell. Click the link below the spreadsheet to view it in its entirety.
Brickell Rental Market as of March 01, 2011
Columns C through G show the number of available rentals pertaining to each condo development grouped by number of bedrooms. Column I displays the total number of rentals available in each condo development while column J shows the total number of units within that development. I debated whether or not to include column K, the number of available rentals over the total number of units in the development expressed as a percentage, because the figure can be deceiving in buildings where developer inventory remains which has neither been sold nor rented. This is the case in buildings such as Icon Brickell and Infinity at Brickell. Regardless, I decided to include the figure because it can provide additional insight in buildings where this is not the case.
The main objective in creating this spreadsheet was to calculate months of inventory for each condo development. This can be seen in column M. Months of inventory was calculated by dividing total units available for rent by the monthly average number of units rented over a 3-month period from November 16, 2010 to February 15, 2011. You may be wondering why I did not include closed rental data from the past two weeks in determining the monthly average. I have noticed that it can take real estate agents days, and even weeks, to change the status of a rental in the MLS from pending to rented. As a result, I felt that the average would be skewed to the downside and not be an accurate representation of the Brickell rental market. Furthermore, if I had to venture a guess, I would also say that it is highly likely that around 10 percent of the total number of units available for rent are in fact no longer available. In this case, the listing agent has yet to change the status from available to pending.
Regardless, a lot can be ascertained from the spreadsheet above. In my opinion, any building with 1.5 months of inventory or less has a solid rental market. 1060 Brickell, The Plaza on Brickell and Vue at Brickell are standouts with absorption rates hovering around one month. I expect rentals prices in these developments to continue to rise in the near future. For those in the market to lease a condo in one of these developments, I advise that you act quickly and put your best foot forward when making an offer.
According to the spreadsheet, there is currently 2.29 months of rental inventory available in Brickell. Some may expect this number to increase as more units from Icon Brickell and Infinity at Brickell hit the rental market. Of course, this will all depend on how quickly the units become available and at what pace demand absorbs them. Only time will tell, but I plan to watch Brickell rental market closely and post updates on a monthly basis.
I would love to hear your thoughts and comments.
Brickell Condo Index – August 2010
The Brickell Condo Index is back! It has been a year and a half since I last published the Brickell Condo Index. Fortunately, eighteen months is a good reference point and definitely enough time where one would expect a lot to have changed with the condo market. For those of you who haven’t followed this blog that long, the Brickell Condo Index is an in-depth look at the various condo buildings in Brickell with various statistics included to illustrate the health or weakness of each building.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but this will be the last Brickell Condo Index to appear on this blog. From here on out, the Brickell Condo Index, as well as other neighborhood indexes, will only be made available via email. Early next week, I will unveil a new version of the Miami Condo Investments website. The new website will be much easier to navigate, have a lot more content, load considerably faster and, most importantly, allow you to register to our Miami Condo Investments weekly newsletter. The weekly newsletter will contain the best condo deals of the week, relevant news stories and exclusive market data such as the neighborhood condo indexes. The neighborhood condo indexes will be emailed the Sunday following the 15th of each month, the day that I have chosen to collect and compile the data. Each neighborhood will be represented every six months as follows: Brickell this month, Brickell Key next month, Downtown Miami in October, the Edgewater in November, South Beach in December and the Miami River area in January. The cycle will then start all over so a neighborhood update is provided twice per year. In the meantime, if you’d like to be included on the newsletter list then simply send us an email at [email protected] and convey your interest to be placed on the list. The blog will not change and will continue to be updated but the market data reports will only be made available via our newsletter.
Before we get into this month’s numbers, let me discuss a few changes that I made to the Brickell Condo Index since the last update in February 2009. First, I excluded One Miami from the index. One Miami will be included in the Downtown Miami Condo Index in October. Second, Latitude on the River and Neo Vertika were also excluded. Both will appear in the Miami River Condo Index in January 2010. Third, I decided to include 1060 Brickell, 500 Brickell, Brickell on the River South and The Plaza on Brickell. Each has had enough closed resales to warrant their inclusion in the Brickell Condo Index. Fourth, I decided to bring back The Sail on Brickell. As of late, I’ve seen much more interest in the building due to its price point and it is much healthier than it was in October 2007 when I dropped it from the index. I guess you can say that it’s officially off the pink sheets. There are now a total of twenty buildings in the Brickell Condo Index whereas before there were eighteen. Last, but not least, I decided to round the price per square foot calculations. I think it makes everything easier to read and I honestly don’t think excluding the two decimal points makes the figures any less insightful.
As per the MLS, the average of the asking prices of the twenty condo buildings that now represent the Brickell Condo Index is $376 per square foot. The average asking price per square foot for each Brickell condo building individually can be found below:
- 1060 Brickell – 1050 & 1060 Brickell Ave – $375
- 500 Brickell – 500 Brickell Ave & 55 SE 6 St – $362
- Atlantis on Brickell – 2025 Brickell Ave – $255
- Brickell on the River North – 31 SE 5 St – $268
- Brickell on the River South – 41 SE 5 St – $276
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave – $471
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St – $348
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave – $954
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave – $285
- Jade Brickell – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr – $532
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave – $691
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave – $352
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter – $189
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr – $285
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr – $313
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave – $298
- The Plaza on Brickell – 951 Brickell Ave & 950 Brickell Bay Dr – $394
- The Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St – $299
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave – $350
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave – $214
At the bottom of this post, I included a chart that shows how each of the above figures compares with those published in February 2009. Solaris at Brickell experienced the largest drop with average asking prices there falling slightly over 40 percent. Three of the buildings saw a slight increase in their average asking price per square foot within the past eighteen months. These were Bristol Tower, Four Seasons Residences and Villa Regina.
Below, you’ll find the average price per square foot for Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the six month period from February 1, 2010 to July 31, 2010. I decided to do it this way because I’ve noted that oftentimes it takes agents a few weeks to change the status of a listing in the MLS from pending to closed. The neighborhood as a whole sold at an average price per square foot of $285 during that time period.
The biggest surprise in the figures above when compared to those in February 2009 is Jade Brickell. The average price per square foot for closed sales during the previous six months increased a little over 14 percent when compared to the figures published eighteen months ago. Other buildings that experienced an increase are Skyline on Brickell, The Mark on Brickell, Villa Regina and Vue at Brickell. With the exception of Villa Regina, these buildings were some of the hardest hit in Brickell when the market collapsed mainly due to the large amount of mortgage fraud that took place in these buildings. The Club at Brickell Bay and Solaris at Brickell are two other buildings in Brickell that were heavily victimized by mortgage fraud. The Club at Brickell Bay saw about a 1 percent decrease in average closed sales prices while prices at Solaris at Brickell fell slightly over 9 percent. This actually makes sense since the fallout at Solaris at Brickell didn’t take place until about a year after the others. Also worth mentioning, prices at Santa Maria fell a little over 4 percent within the past eighteen months but the numbers were a bit skewed due to Penthouse 4901 recently selling for $1,100 per square foot. The average for the past six months would have been much lower had it not been for that sale.
Below you will find some additional statistics. Click on the image to enlarge it.
The first column to the right of each condo development name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. A high percentage indicates that there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price for condos currently on the market and what has actually sold within the past six months. In other words, many of the sellers in these buildings are delusional and are in need of a reality check. For example, 1060 Brickell has a very large discrepancy because there are quite a few units asking over $400 per square foot and even some asking over $560 per square foot while closed sales have averaged around $208 per square foot within the past six months.
The second column shows the number of active listings currently in the MLS for each condo development. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those condo developments that have active listings that that represent less than 10 percent of the overall units in the building. This is typically one indication of a sound condo building. When I first started doing the Brickell Condo Index in 2007 many of the cells in this column were highlighted in red, indicating that active listings represented over 20 percent of the building. This was always a good indication that prices would fall further in these buildings. For example, in February 2009, active listings at Solaris at Brickell represented slightly over 20 percent of the building. That was the largest percentage of listings at that time and it is not a coincidence that eighteen months later prices fell the most at Solaris at Brickell of all the buildings represented in the Brickell Condo Index.
The fourth column reveals the number of condos currently pending sale in each building. The Club at Brickell Bay has a whopping 42 pending sales at this time and there are a total of 155 pending sales in all of the buildings combined. In February 2009, there were only 81 pending sales although a total of twenty buildings are now present in the Brickell Condo Index rather than eighteen. The fifth column displays the number of closed sales from February 1, 2010 to July 31, 2010. Once again, The Club at Brickell Bay leads the way with a total of 38 closed sales in that time period. It’s interesting to note that there were 20 more closed sales in the six months prior to February 2009 when compared to the current closing numbers even though the index now has two additional buildings.
The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and February 2009’s, expressed as a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that experienced an increase.
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and February 2009’s, expressed a percentage. Once again, those highlighted in green represent an increase while those highlighted in red represent a decrease.
Well, that’s all for today. Have fun with the numbers. Time for me to get back to work on the new website.
Brickell & Brickell Key Closed Condo Sales – November 2009
Click on the links below to view the condo sales in Brickell and Brickell Key closed in November 2009:
Brickell Closed Condo Sales – November 2009 – There were 30 closed condo sales in Brickell last month. The average sales price of these condos was $243 per square foot. I was surprised to see that a one bedroom condo at Skyline on Brickell sold for $334 per square foot.
Brickell Key Closed Condo Sales – November 2009 – 10 condos in Brickell Key closed last month. These sold at an average sales price per square foot of $258. Here I was shocked to see that someone would be willing to pay $294 per square foot for a unit at Isola, especially one with carpeting.
Top 5 Distressed Condo Sales Closed in July 2009
Below, you will find what I believe to be the five best condo deals of the 43 distressed sales that closed in the month of July in the MLS located in Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami and the Arts District. I wasn’t very impressed with the deals that closed in July, however, when compared to those we’ve seen in previous months. Coincidentally, all five condos are located in Brickell this month.
- Brickell on the River North #805 – 1 bedroom/1 bath (820 square feet) – This unit sold for $128,000, or $156 per square foot, on July 30, 2009. Short Sale
- Brickell on the River North #1611 – 2 bedroom/2 bath (1,117 square feet) – This unit sold for $190,000, or $170 per square foot, on July 10, 2009. Short Sale
- The Sail on Brickell #2704 – 2 bedroom/2 bath (942 square feet) – This unit sold for $137,900, or $146 per square foot, on July 31, 2009. Foreclosure
- Solaris at Brickell #1903 – 2 bedroom/2 bath (1,064 square feet) – This unit sold for $185,000, or $174 per square foot, on July 24, 2009. Foreclosure
- Imperial at Brickell #1505 – 3 bedroom/2 bath (1,732 square feet) – This unit sold for $350,000 or $202 per square foot, on July 29, 2009. Short Sale
The Sail on Brickell Penthouse 2 Bedroom/2 Bath Foreclosure – $299,900
In September of last year, I revealed a very compelling piece about the apparent mortgage fraud at The Sail on Brickell. At the time, a 2 bedroom/2 bath at The Sail on Brickell had recently sold for $670,000!!! Now, there’s a bank-owned 2 bedroom/2 bath Penthouse condo at The Sail on Brickell that is listed at $299,900. Was I right about the apparent mortgage fraud or was I right?
I urge everyone to read my post in September. It will provide much insight as to how prevalent the mortgage fraud was back then in Miami. I actually reread my post and I was like “Damn! That was a great post”. Back then I didn’t have many readers. My readership was made up of just around one hundred people.
Currently, there are two 2 bedroom/2 bath short-sales at The Sail on Brickell listed for $599,000. Both short-sales are the condos that I discussed in my July and September posts that had recently closed. This makes it apparent to me that the buyers never had the intention to hold these condos but rather defraud our U.S. banking system. Our banking system in this country has enough problems. I’m very upset about my findings. Very!
Here are the two condos that were sold at The Sail on Brickell in July and September:
- Unit 2504 was listed at $670,000 and sold for $670,000
- Unit 2204 was listed at $670,000 and sold for $670,000
Both were sold by the same broker. <<<<<<<<<<<<<
Where is the mortgage fraud task force when you need them?
Developers Renting Their Inventory as a Last Resort
On Friday, the Daily Business Review published an article entitled, “Condominiums: Holding Pattern”. The article points out that several developers of recently completed condo developments have opted to rent their unsold or defaulted inventory to remain afloat.
The question that resounds throughout the article is whether or not this approach makes economic sense for these developers. Their hope is that the rental income earned will buy them time until the market rebounds.
The Midtown Miami development lies at the forefront of the article. Midtown 2 has had considerable problems with closings since they began in May of this year. As stated in the article, I have found only 179 closings for their 338 total units. The class-action lawsuit against the developer by contract holders certainly hasn’t helped matters. However, the root of the problem lies in the fact that the preconstruction prices offered by the developer were much too high for that neighborhood. Units were sold with a promise that the neighborhood would somehow be transformed within three short years. The reality is that the neighborhood is still at least another 3-5 years away from delivering on that promise. Initial prices at Midtown 2, and Midtown 4 for that matter, were higher than more desirable Brickell condo developments such as Plaza on Brickell, 500 Brickell and Axis.
Sandra de la Torre, a sales agent at Midtown Miami, stated in the article that 20 developer units were available for rent and 20-25 were available for sale. I highly doubt that this is the only inventory that the developer has in his possession, given that only 179 closings at Midtown 2 appear in public records. It is much more likely that at least 30 percent of the building will eventually be available for lease through the developer. I haven’t heard anything lately regarding the class-action lawsuit, so maybe it is still pending and a large portion of the unaccounted units can be tied to that.
Rental prices will need to be quite attractive at 2 Midtown in order for potential tenants to be enticed into signing a lease there. Many more options will become available for renters in the upcoming months in more desirable neighborhoods at attractive prices. In the Miami Arts District, The 1800 Club, in my opinion, will drive rental prices down throughout the neighborhood once closings begin and investors eventually opt to lease their units. The prices at The 1800 Club were quite attractive when sales were initially launched. This is one condo building where it might make economic sense for the developer to rent its remaining inventory. The neighborhood immediately surrounding The 1800 Club has a greater chance of rebounding within the next couple of years than that surrounding Midtown Miami. Vulture capital funds should keep a close eye on The 1800 Club because it could become the ideal development to invest in future months if prices dip below initial preconstruction prices.
Plaza on Brickell and Axis are two condo developments in Brickell that will drive down rental prices throughout the neighborhood once they are completed. Both were attractively priced and will ultimately provide Brickell renters with highly competitive rental prices. Both developments were backed by a high percentage of investors who will also likely lease their units to wait for the next upturn in the condo market.
The Sail on Brickell was also mentioned in the article as being another development that has sought to rent its remaining inventory. I was not aware that Renzi Development had failed to close on it 152 total units until I read this story. I wasn’t surprised, however, given that it is a second-tier condo development in Brickell that has been riddled by mortgage fraud. As a result, the Sail on Brickell will no longer be included in the Brickell Condo Index. It will eventually be replaced by Latitude on the River once it has closed on all of its units.
As for Midtown 2, I think they’ll be lucky to get rental rates of $1.75 per square foot. The “rent and wait” option doesn’t make economic sense for this development, in my opinion. The developers of the Sail on Brickell, which doesn’t reside on Brickell Avenue, will also have difficulties in making their rental numbers work. I think one bedrooms there will eventually rent for around $1,250 per month.
Miami Condo Index – Brickell – September 2007
I received an email last week from a potential investor asking me if Miami is now safer than the “Miami Vice days” that he saw on TV. Indeed, the streets of Miami are much safer than they were 20 years ago, but the corruption that infested the city back then is still prevalent now.
Another month, another fraudulent transaction. I guess nobody cares. As I mentioned last month, the rumors are out there that a government agency is on the lookout for such activity but I’ve begun to lose hope that these rumors hold much water. If these rumors are true, then shame on them for allowing such activity to continue, and allowing the reputation of this city to be equated to that of which was prevalent in the 1980s. This past month, I’ve heard that an FBI agent is living at Vue at Brickell and Jade at Brickell Bay. I wouldn’t be surprised if one lives at The Club at Brickell Bay as well.
The continuance of fraudulent activity in Brickell has sickened me. The sooner that the Miami Herald, or some other major newspaper, goes public with this story, the better. The fraudulent activity just needs to stop. It is doing nobody any good to let the fraudulent activity prevail, except those who are facilitating it.
Sorry, but I just had to rant and rave for a moment. Now, back to our regularly scheduled program (but I’ll continue to rant and rave towards the end when I disclose the latest fraudulent transaction).
The average price per square foot of condos listed in the 18 Brickell buildings included in the Brickell Condo Index has dropped to $525.88 from last month’s average price per square foot of $529.05. The weight-adjusted average has also dropped to $530.15 versus last month’s weight-adjusted average price per square foot of $537.67. Both figures are below those that were calculated in July as well.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
The average price of condos sold over the past six months has dropped to $467.47 per square foot versus last month’s figure of $471.94 per square foot. The weight-adjusted average has also dropped to $486.30 per square foot from last month’s weight-adjusted average of $498.36 per square foot. Much of the decrease is due to the a sizable drop in the averages at The Club at Brickell Bay and Vue at Brickell. Both buildings had fraudulent transactions that fell off the six month average.
The Sail at Brickell had yet another fraudulent transaction this past month. It was conducted by the same broker that conducted the fraudulent transaction at The Sail at Brickell that I spoke of in July. Once again, the broker acted as the listing agent and the selling agent. He must have some luck! He was also able to close the deal the same day that the deal went pending. Imagine that! This guy works miracles. He was able to sell a 2 bedroom/2 bath at The Sail on Brickell for $670,000. Well at least he was able to negotiate the price down $10,000 for his buyer. He has some smooth negotiating skills. He must also have some great persuasion skills because nobody in their right mind would pay $670,000 for a 2 bedroom at The Sail on Brickell.
Average price per square foot of condos sold in the past 6 months:
- Atlantis on Brickell – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $298.11
- Brickell on the River North – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $409.44
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $440.18
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $523.78
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $720.15
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $304.56
- Jade at Brickell Bay – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $690.18
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $361.99
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $446.06
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | $386.41
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $618.50
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $451.29
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $457.45
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $660.39
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $501.16
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $363.32
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $464.83
This is the first month that a development has had a price per square foot under $300 for condos sold over the previous six months since I began this index. Atlantis on Brickell broke through this barrier with an average price per square foot of $298.11. This figure for Atlantis on Brickell will likely continue to decline as a bank-owned listing has remained on the market for quite some time and will likely sell for around $200 per square foot.
Below you will find the new statistics that I have included in this month’s Brickell Condo Index. The first number directly to the right of each development name represents the total number of active listings. The second number, in parentheses, is the number of currently listed condos expressed as a percentage of the total number of condos in the development. The third number represents the number of pending sales while the fourth is the number of closed sales within the past month.
- Atlantis on Brickell – 13 (13.54%) | 1 | 1
- Brickell on the River North– 59 (18.21%) | 4 | 0
- Bristol Tower – 19 (12.93%) | 3 | 1
- Emerald at Brickell – 34 (23.94%) | 1 | 0
- Four Seasons Residences – 18 (6.67%) | 3 | 0
- Imperial at Brickell – 15 (9.32%) | 2 | 0
- Jade at Brickell Bay – 76 (23.31%) | 6 | 1
- Neo Vertika – 78 (17.61%) | 7 | 0
- One Miami – 165 (18.42%) | 6 | 2
- Sail on Brickell – 64 (42.11%) | 2 | 1
- Santa Maria – 10 (5.75%) | 1 | 1
- Skyline on Brickell – 54 (15.00%) | 2 | 1
- Solaris at Brickell – 21 (15.22%) | 2 | 1
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 145 (22.55%) | 11 | 1
- The Mark on Brickell – 43 (11.62%) | 0 | 1
- The Palace – 25 (9.84%) | 1 | 0
- Villa Regina – 20 (9.62%) | 0 | 0
- Vue at Brickell – 62 (19.20%) | 1 | 0
Two numbers jumped out at me when reviewing this month’s findings: the 42.11% of available listings at The Sail on Brickell and the 11 pending sales at The Club at Brickell Bay.
I knew that prices were high and unjustified at The Sail on Brickell with mortgage fraud having much to do with it, but I never would have imagined that over 40 percent of the building would be available for sale. That’s incredible! However, a look at the current list prices should make those who have visited this building realize that the prices at The Sail on Brickell are ridiculous. Of the 18 buildings included in the Brickell Condo Index, I would rank The Sail at Brickell at the bottom. There are no views and the common areas and amenities are below Brickell standards. The developer, Renzi Development, recently announced that they plan to go forth with their Beacon at Brickell Village development. I sure hope they have second thoughts. The Sail on Brickell will eventually sell for around $250 per square foot (and that’s being generous). If I were a condo owner who is motivated to sell at The Sail on Brickell then I would be priced at the front of the large pack.
When I saw the 11 pending sales at The Club at Brickell Bay I was quite surprised. At first I thought it was my lack of REM sleep setting in. Once I realized that it wasn’t, I had to investigate further. What I found made this number a complete sham. Of the 11 pending sales, 9 of them have been pending since 2005 and 2006. What the….? It usually takes two months, maybe three months tops, to take a pending sale to the closing table. The other two pending sales have been pending since January and March of 2007. Something just isn’t right. Most likely the sales prices couldn’t be justified. Take 6 months, 12, months, 36 months and the prices still won’t be justified. These transactions should be reclassified as “hopeless” rather than pending. A 1 bedroom/1 bath at The Club at Brickell Bay will be going up for auction tomorrow, September 19, 2007 at 3pm. That will give everyone a good indication as to the fate of prices at The Club at Brickell Bay. You can be sure that I’ll report about it within the next couple of days.
So there you have it, that is the latest Brickell Condo Index. The good news is that there were 11 closed sales within the past month versus a total of eight closed sales the month prior to last. There were a total of nine closed sales the month prior to that.
There are a total of 42 pending sales disregarding the 11 at The Club at Brickell Bay since those have been discredited. As long as half of those transactions actually close, then there should be about 10-11 closed sales next month. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m praying that we won’t have another fraudulent transaction then. If we do, and you thought I ranted and raved now, just wait until next month.
Miami Condo Index – Brickell – August 2007
I just finished compiling the data for this month’s Miami Condo Index for Brickell. Last month I revealed that the 18 buildings below had a total of nine closed sales from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. That number surprised myself and many others who follow the real estate market in Brickell. Be prepared to be surprised some more because this figure has dropped. There were a total of eight closed sales from July 19, 2007 to August 18, 2007 in the 18 condo buildings below throughout Brickell. Eight!
Of the eight closed sales, one appears to be yet another fraudulent transaction. A one bedroom/one bath condo with 825 square feet sold for $625,000, or $758 per square foot, on August 3, 2007 at The Club at Brickell Bay. It doesn’t even have a direct water view! The same broker represented the seller and buyer in the transaction. What is really crazy is that a different brokerage had the condo listed for $425,000 in May. It was later canceled and relisted with the broker who sold it for $625,000.
If you think that transaction has the word “fraud” written all over it then take a look at the one bedroom/one bath condo that closed on May 18, 2007 at The Club at Brickell Bay. It too had 825 square feet of interior space and a view of the water from the balcony. The buyer of that unit paid the full asking price of $680,000, or $824.24. The Club at Brickell Bay now has the highest price per square foot of condos sold in the past six months of the 18 buildings included in the index because of these fraudulent transactions. When is somebody going to step in and do something about this? Supposedly the Miami Herald and the FBI are investigating the situation but I’ve been hearing those rumors for months. What is taking so long?
The average price per square foot of condos listed in the 18 Brickell buildings covered in the index went up slightly to $529.05. Last month this figure was $528.84. The weight-adjusted average, however, went down to $537.67 from last month’s weight-adjusted average of $540.17.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the past 6 months actually went down slightly to $471.94 from June’s average of $473.95 despite the fraudulent transaction at The Club at Brickell Bay. Take note that The Club at Brickell Bay now has an average price per square foot of $720.15 for condos sold over the past six months. That is simply ridiculous. This average is based on the three transactions that have occurred at The Club at Brickell Bay over the past six months, two of which appear to be fraudulent. A little over 20 percent of the building is available for sale but nothing is moving. Hmmm…maybe it’s because the list prices there don’t make any f@&#ing sense!!!
Average price per square foot of units sold in the past 6 months:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $335.12
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $409.44
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $412.44
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $474.85
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $720.15
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $319.56
- Jade Brickell – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $666.87
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $361.99
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $450.94
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | $373.16
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $643.95
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $471.39
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $450.43
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $723.35
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $478.95
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $363.32
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $522.37
Sold-to-Listed Ratio expressed as a percentage:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | -2.56%
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | 12.45%
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 19.48%
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | 12.67%
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | 25.18%
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 23.35%
- Jade Brickell – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 23.98%
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | 13.66%
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | 3.51%
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | 33.53%
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 10.59%
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 5.99%
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | 14.30%
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | -11.98%
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 4.41%
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 3.39%
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 36.73%
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | 2.85%
I noticed that a handful of fraudulent transactions will be falling off next month so I’m expecting the average price per square foot of condos sold over the past six months to go down in September. That is, however, assuming that other fraudulent transactions don’t appear in the next 30 days to take their place. We shall see.
Miami Condo Index – Brickell – July 2007
You may have noticed that some of the June numbers have changed. This is because I originally took out the closed sales that were obviously due to mortgage fraud. I recently went back and included those sales because I wanted to present things just as they were. However, this made listings appear to be priced more accurately, which they aren’t. To condo owners, and to some Realtors not in the know, these fraudulent transactions have made their listings appear justified. They need to realize that these transactions are just that, fraudulent, and very inaccurate.
The average price per square foot of condo units listed in the 18 Brickell buildings covered in my index dropped $7.44 since last month. A drop in the price of condos listed in Brickell over the last month was highly expected. I actually thought that prices would have come down even more though. These 18 buildings in Brickell had an average price per square foot of $528.84 this month versus $536.28 in June. The weighted average price per square foot was $540.17 for July versus $547.06 in June.
The most shocking thing that the July Brickell condo index revealed was the number of transactions that occurred in one month’s time. There are a total of 5,348 condo units represented in the 18 buildings that comprise my Brickell condo index. Take a guess at how many units have closed from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007.
Had enough time to come up with a guesstimate? Nine. That’s the number of units that sold during that time period throughout the 18 buildings that make up the Brickell condo index. Everyone knows the market is slow but I don’t think anyone could have guessed to what extent. Nine! I still can’t get that out of my head. There are a total of 875 units available on the market right now in those 18 buildings. This equates to 16.36 percent of the total units. This number is actually much higher in many of the newer buildings. Many of the older buildings have 20 or less listings in the entire building. The instability lies in the newer buildings; the buildings that were heavily funded by speculators.
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the past six months in Brickell actually went up slightly. But keep in mind that there were nine transactions in all 18 buildings. Most Realtors would focus on the fact that prices are actually going up. However, I will tell you, first hand, that these numbers are attributed to fraudulent transactions. The price per square foot went from $471.76, in June, to $473.95, in July. Most of this was due to a transaction that appears to be fraudulent at The Sail on Brickell.
The reason why I feel that this transaction is fraudulent is for a number of reasons. One, the unit was sold at the highest price per square foot in the building with concrete floors, two, the broker is a discount broker who charges 4 percent per transaction, three, in every transaction he seems to find the buyer and already holds the listing, and four, he finds the buyer within four days. I did a search by the broker’s email to see what other transactions have occurred. I’m not going to name names but let’s just say that this broker has at least six transactions where this has occurred. The same exact thing. He finds a buyer to acquire a condo at The Sail on Brickell within four days at the highest price possible. Let me tell you, firsthand as a Realtor, that it is hard enough to find a buyer in this market to buy something at the best price available. How is this guy finding a buyer at the highest price available? Within 4 days? Like I said, I’m not going to name names but something fishy is going on there. If someone, like the Miami Herald, wants to investigate this thoroughly and name me as the source, then so be it, but I’m not divulging names. I don’t want to have a hit-man after me. Hopefully I’m wrong about what has occurred in The Sail at Brickell, but I doubt it.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
Average price per square foot of units sold in the past 6 months:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $335.12
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $397.69
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $417.82
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $570.51
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $763.51
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $319.56
- Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $668.23
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $375.53
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $453.66
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | $369.08
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $605.15
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $471.39
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $436.21
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $636.74
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $498.17
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $352.77
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $543.37
Sold-to-Listed Ratio expressed as a percentage:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 0.77%
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | 17.23%
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 17.19%
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | -3.02%
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | 16.68%
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 22.35%
- Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 24.50%
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | 9.87%
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | 3.72%
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | 32.46%
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 13.51%
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 4.51%
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | 14.86%
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 2.70%
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 1.01%
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 8.68%
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 30.64%
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | 1.53%
Miami Condo Index – Brickell – June 2007
Last week I mentioned that I was planning to create a Miami Condo Index to provide pricing insight to homebuyers in various neighborhoods in Miami and Miami Beach. This week I decided to kick things off with Brickell.
It was difficult to come up with a final list of buildings that should be included in the Brickell index. For example, is Neo Vertika in Brickell or should it be in a different category like West Brickell? Is One Miami part of downtown or should it be grouped with Brickell buildings? After much thought, I decided to include both. There simply aren’t enough buildings of interest in West Brickell or downtown to necessitate a separate neighborhood index for West Brickell and downtown. Eventually, One Miami will be grouped with downtown buildings as more developments are completed north of the Miami River. Another question remained as to whether buildings in Brickell Key should be grouped with buildings in Brickell to create a Brickell/Brickell Key index or should a separate index be created for each? I decided on the latter.
Earlier today, I finished crunching the numbers and evaluated my findings. Much of it was quite shocking. I took 18 prominent buildings in Brickell and created two separate spreadsheets. The first spreadsheet calculated the average price per square foot of units currently listed in the 18 buildings in Brickell. The second calculated the average price per square foot of units that have sold in those 18 buildings in the past six months. I also weighted each building according to how many units they had when compared to the sum of the units of all 18 buildings. This helped to arrive at a more accurate representation of the typical Brickell condo.
First I’m going to show you the average price per square foot of the units currently listed on the market:
Some of those averages shocked the hell out of me. How can condo units at The Club at Brickell Bay have an average list price of over $650 per square foot? (I’ve heard reports of mortgage fraud in that building as well as at Jade and Vue at Brickell.) The average price per square foot for condos currently listed in Brickell using these 18 buildings came out to $536.28. The weight-adjusted average came out to $547.06. The Club at Brickell Bay, with 642 total units, skewed the weight-adjusted average higher than the regular average.
Next we’ll take a look at the average price per square foot in these buildings based on closed sales. Keep in mind that this is the average price per square foot. Condos that have a better view or are on a higher floor than the average condo in the building will obviously have a higher price per square foot. These figures were equally shocking.
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $335.12
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $411.79
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $417.82
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $519.72
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $763.51
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $319.56
- Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $668.23
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $383.23
- One Miami -325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $458.56
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | $335.05
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $606.44
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $471.39
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $436.21
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $634.15
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickelly Bay Dr | 33131 | $506.81
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $350.88
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $556.59
Condo units at The Club at Brickell Bay had a higher average price per square foot than condos at Santa Maria when looking at closed sales. I had to double check my work once I saw that, but everything checked out.
I tried to eliminate any data that was irregular. For example, in the past six months Pharrell Williams purchased developer Ugo Colombo’s Penthouse unit at Bristol Tower for $13,950,000, or over $1,500 per square foot. I discarded it because it was deemed irregular.
The average price per square foot for these 18 buildings, based on closed sales, came out to $471.76. The weight-adjusted average came out to $495.13.
Using both data sets I also wanted to figure out how overpriced listings are in Brickell when compared to what they actually sell for, on average. I also was curious to find out which buildings were the most overpriced. Here is the data below:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 0.73%
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | 12.01%
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 16.82%
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | 1.63%
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | 19.37%
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 22.32%
- Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 30.12%
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | 6.76%
- One Miami -325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | 2.93%
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | 45.78%
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 26.74%
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 5.26%
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | 16.09%
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 3.63%
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickelly Bay Dr | 33131 | 2.78%
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 9.99%
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 29.67%
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | -1.04%
On average, condo units at The Sail on Brickell have a list price that is 45.78% higher than the average sales price of units sold in the past six months. Either owners of units in that building have unrealistic expectations or agents conducting business there have not provided their clients with an accurate comparable market analysis.
On average, Brickell condo listings were priced 13.98% over the average sales price of units sold in the past six months in these 18 buildings. When using a weighted average, the typical Brickell condo is overpriced by 10.48%. The weighted average is lower because most of the large differences occur in smaller buildings such as The Sail on Brickell.
Keep in mind that statistical data is never perfect. It grows more accurate as additional data is incorporated. The same holds true for a major league baseball player. The first five at-bats in his major league career won’t dictate how the rest of his major league career will fair. The Miami Condo Index will shed more light as time goes on and patterns and trends begin to emerge in the data.
In the next two weeks I will reveal the findings for Brickell Key and South Beach. I will follow-up each neighborhood index report with a post highlighting any fantastic deals that I come across in the buildings covered.
