Assessing the Neighborhoods and Condo Buildings of Miami
A great comment was made this morning asking me for my take on the various neighborhoods in Miami. Excellent topic and one that I’m sure my non-local readers would appreciate.
The map above is a portion of a larger map that was created by the Miami Downtown Development Authority. It is a great resource for people to see where various condo buildings throughout Miami are located. I realize that it is very difficult to view the above image. I do, however, have a PDF of the map on my file sharing page. Click on the file called “Miami Developments Map Aug07”. You may also want to view the file called “Miami Developments Report Aug07”. There you will find profile pages for several condo developments in Miami.
The map does not encompass all of Miami, however. It basically covers just those neighborhoods in Miami that had the most condo development during our recent boom. It also doesn’t show every condo development on the map. I’m not sure how far back it goes but my guess is that it only includes developments built since 2004.
The Neighborhoods of Miami
- Brickell – Brickell is also known as the financial district of Miami. A lot of large international banks are located in Brickell. Also, the majority of Miami’s condos are located in Brickell. When you see a picture of the Miami skyline you are most likely looking at the various condo buildings in Brickell.This is considered by most to be an affluent neighborhood. There are some very high-end condo buildings located in this neighborhood such as Four Seasons Residences and Santa Maria.However, there is a large supply of condos that has recently begun to hit the market in Brickell. Buyers will definitely have good opportunities and a lot of options within the next couple of years. You really need to research these buildings considerably if you intend to buy. There are some condo developments in Brickell that I feel are overpriced and will likely come down over the next 2-3 years. There are others that I feel are appealing to end-users. I also wanted to note that there is only one waterfront lot left in Brickell.
- Brickell Key – Many would say that Brickell Key is viewed as an exclusive neighborhood with its gated entry into the neighborhood and its paved brick roads. There isn’t much new inventory in Brickell Key that will hit the market within the next year. In fact, only 123 new condos will hit the market once Asia closes its units. Other than the small piece of land behind the Mandarin Oriental Hotel, there is no room left to build in Brickell Key which means that there probably won’t be any new supply there for many years. Many might argue that the large supply of condos in Brickell will have an effect on prices of condos located in Brickell Key. However, some would tell you that they only want to live in Brickell Key.
- Downtown Miami – In my opinion, Downtown Miami needs more infrastructure before it can become a great neighborhood. It’ll take some time but will eventually become a great place to live. My opinion is that until this becomes a realization current prices will be difficult to justify. Long-term though, I think Downtown Miami will be a very happening place to live.
- Park West – Park West is a small area of Miami that is located directly south of the MacArthur Causeway. It is currently comprised of four buildings. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I believe this neighborhood has the greatest long-term potential for various reasons that I’ve mentioned in other posts. In the short-run, however, I feel that prices won’t go up until grocery stores, pharmacies, coffee shops, etc. become available in Park West. I’ve heard from various people that Gardener’s Market is negotiating a lease to open a store at the base of 900 Biscayne. Park West needs more of this.
- Arts District and Edgewater – The Arts District is a fairly large area. I typically regard it as beginning at the Carnival Center for the Performing Arts and ending on NE 36 Street, although everyone has their own definition. In my opinion, this will be the last neighborhood to turn around. There is still a lot of room to build on waterfront lots because there are a lot of run-down buildings that could easily be knocked down. It does have Margaret Pace Park though which is a fantastic park. I think opportunities for investors to buy in bulk will become available in some of the new buildings in the Arts District. I currently know of one.
I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts and input.
Food for Thought
Many of you already know about the lawsuit at hand. There are many issues to consider about this case, which others have shared with me via email and over the phone. I wanted to share their thoughts with you.
1) I was never contacted by the developer of Opera Tower, nor his representatives, to correct the misstatement. The lawsuit was the first instance of me finding out that he was upset about the blog post. Had he contacted me to make a correction, or to take it down, I would have gladly done so.
2) A blog is an open forum. My Miami real estate blog allows people who visit this blog to leave comments. The developer, or someone associated with the developer, could have left a comment correcting the misstatement. This was never done.
3) I did not have my license hung with EWM at the time that I wrote the post. Does this mean that all corporations should now be held accountable for the blog posts that their employees wrote on Myspace before working for them? Does corporate America now need to review all blog posts that someone may have written before the employee was hired?
4) Every day, people on Amazon.com leave both positive and negative views about products. Does this mean that Amazon.com should be sued because somebody has an unfavorable opinion about a product and has decided to leave a comment that is deemed to be negative? What happens if their comment turns out to be a misstatement about the product?
5) The bottom line is that this is a blog. Wikipedia’s definition of blog is the following:
A blog (a portmanteau of web log) is a website where entries are commonly displayed in reverse chronological order. “Blog” can also be used as a verb, meaning to maintain or add content to a blog.
Many blogs provide commentary or news on a particular subject; others function as more personal online diaries. A typical blog combines text, images, and links to other blogs, web pages, and other media related to its topic. The ability for readers to leave comments in an interactive format is an important part of many blogs. Most blogs are primarily textual, although some focus on art (artlog), photographs (photoblog), sketchblog, videos (vlog), music (MP3 blog), audio (podcasting) are part of a wider network of social media. Micro-blogging is another type of blogging which consists of blogs with very short posts.
To me, a blog is a way to share thoughts and ideas with others. As Robert Jarvis, a constitutional law and ethics professor at Nova Southeastern University, stated in the Miami Herald article “Courts understand [blogs] are written in unedited, unvetted fashion”.
6) Journalists are offered the opportunity to retract misstatements. If a newspaper publishes a misstatement then the publisher is offered the opportunity to make a retraction. A blog writer, however, is not held to the standards of a journalist. As stated above, blogs are viewed as open forums. The plaintiff could have corrected the misstatement by addressing it in a comment left on the blogger’s website.
I’m not going to reveal the amount of traffic that this blog receives, but considering the number of people in this world, the visitors to this website represents such a minute percentage of the global market. Miami is not a local market. There are people from all over the world who have an interest in owning property in Miami and Miami Beach. If I had written about the housing market of some small community in Arkansas (sorry to use you as an example…please don’t sue me) then maybe a court could show that I influenced the thoughts of buyers and sellers within that community. The fact of the matter is that there is interest from buyers from all over the world that have their eyes on Miami real estate. To say that my blog influenced the Miami condo market is ridiculous. Flattering, perhaps, but still ridiculous. As I said, the percentage of people who read my blog in this world is minute.
Opera Tower, LLC & Tibor Hollo Sues Me for $25M
As some of you may already know, my employment at EWM Realtors was terminated this afternoon. The Miami Herald published a story this evening on their website revealing that developer Tibor Hollo of Opera Tower has sued EWM, and myself, for $25M.
The interesting thing about this case is that I did not have my license hung with EWM when I wrote that post. In my opinion, Tibor Hollo and Opera Tower, LLC are coming after EWM because their parent company is owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. I have no ill feelings against EWM. I fully understand their position on the situation, given that they are owned by a much larger entity.
The reason why I wrote the post is because I was receiving a lot of phone calls from contract holders at Opera Tower telling me that they had no intention on closing on their condos. In my opinion, a blog is a vehicle to share opinions, thoughts and concerns. I was merely sharing these concerns with potential buyers and contract holders. About three weeks ago, a local newspaper disclosed a story about a class-action lawsuit against the developer filed by contract holders wanting to get out. This topic was an area of concern, and one that I felt needed to be addressed to my readers.
I had no malicious intent against Tibor Hollo nor the condo development. I was merely sharing my opinion with the readers of my Miami real estate blog and the concerns of current contract holders. I see myself as a real estate agent on the street that is sharing the concerns and opinions of others.
Miami Condo Index – Brickell Key – January 2008
The Brickell Key Condo Index is back. I didn’t have time to provide a monthly update for December 2007. For those who have newly discovered this site, the Brickell Key Condo Index is a monthly post that provides important housing statistics pertaining to the 10 existing condo buildings located on Brickell Key. I also publish a monthly update pertaining to 17 well known buildings located in Brickell. Condos located in Downtown Miami and the Arts District of Miami will likely have their own index within the next six months. I’m just waiting for more buildings in those areas to be completed.
The average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell Key has gone down since the November 2007 update. List prices have continued to drop each month since I began this index in June 2007. At that time, the average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell was $519.97. It now stands at $486.07. That’s about a 6.5% drop in list prices in 7 months. These numbers are in line with the housing numbers that were released this past week. The weight-adjusted average also fell to $481.98 from November’s weight-adjusted average of $490.87.
Average price per square foot of Brickell Key condos currently listed on the MLS:
The average price per square foot of condos that have sold within the past six months has gone down as well. This average dropped to $416.92 per square foot from the $435.21 that we saw in November 2007. In June, this average stood at $445.59. The January average represents a 6.4% drop within the past 7 months. The weight-adjusted average also fell to $414.54 from November’s weight-adjusted average of $433.31.
The average price per square foot of condos sold within the past six months:
- Brickell Key One – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $326.88
- Brickell Key Two – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $398.70
- Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $481.29
- Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $466.49
- Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $444.20
- Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $342.72
- One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $405.28
- St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $421.25
- Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $435.42
- Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $446.98
The chart below reveals additional statistics pertaining to the 10 existing condo buildings in Brickell Key:
The first column to the right of each condo development is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. Courts Brickell Key was the only development that had a higher average sales price than list price.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. As I’ve stated before, I find this to be a very healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. Proceed with caution! Condo developments with active listings representing less than 10 percent of the overall condos are considered very safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past two months. Since I didn’t have a December update, I decided to show the number of closed sales since November 28, 2007. As you can see, there have been 9 closed sales in Brickell Key within the past two months. There are currently 28 pending sales, however, 9 of these pending sales have been pending since August 2007 or longer. A few of them have been pending for over a year. I did notice that a good portion of the other 19 pending sales went pending within the first two weeks of the new year.
The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from November and this month, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which have had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green reveal those that have had an increase. As you can see, Carbonell was the only condo building in Brickell Key that has had an increase in its average list price since November 2007. This is attributed to a penthouse condo that was listed the first week of December for around $1,500 per square foot!
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from November and this month, expressed as a percentage. Brickell Key I, Courts Brickell Key and Courvoisier Courts had average sales prices that were up from those found in November. The average at Isola dropped dramatically since November but not a lot can be made of it because only one closed sale in Isola has occurred within the past six months. It’s not a true average. However, three of the condos that have gone pending at Isola within the past three months have an average list price of $358 per square foot. This is close to the $342.72 price per square foot associated with the one condo that has sold within the past six months.
Brickell on the River South Tower Closings Off to a Slow Start
Closings in the South Tower of Brickell on the River are off to a very slow start. According to public record, there have been a total of 15 closed sales at Brickell on the River South Tower since closings began on December 21, 2007. The end of this week will mark the fifth week. However, as I’ve mentioned before, there can be delays in having closings recorded with the county.
According to the management office of Brickell on the River South Tower, there are a total of 334 units. This means that Brickell on the River South Tower has been able to close about 4 1/2 percent of their overall units within the first 5 weeks. Not a good sign!
To put this in better perspective, below you’ll see what percentage of units the following buildings were able to close within the first five weeks after closings began:
- Latitude on the River – 47%
- 2 Midtown – 15%
- Onyx on the Bay – 26%
- Ten Museum Park – 15%
What do you think about Brickell on the River South Tower’s 4 1/2 percent closing rate? Paraphrasing the words from the Coffee Talk with Linda Richman skit on Saturday Night Live, discuss amongst yourselves.
Santa Maria – Luxury Condo Living at its Finest
It is always a pleasure whenever I’m able to show a condo or two at Santa Maria. It is, by far, my favorite building in Brickell. Unquestionable quality, spectacular water views, fantastic amenities and spacious floor plans makes Santa Maria the best luxury condo building in Miami, in my opinion.
Yesterday, I was able to show a client about four condos at Santa Maria. I didn’t have time to get shots of the units that we saw but I was able to get some good pictures of the lobby and the amazing views from the Penthouse-level fitness center and spa. Most developers wouldn’t think twice about selling the Penthouse level at the highest price per square foot and instead placing the fitness center and spa on a much lower floor. Instead, the developer of Santa Maria, Ugo Columbo, brilliantly decided to allow all residents at Santa Maria to enjoy the panoramic views from the Penthouse level. Ugo Columbo also developed Bristol Tower (also on Brickell Avenue) and Grovenor House (in Coconut Grove), both spectacular developments as well.
Biscayne Boulevard – Then & Now
I’m not quite sure when the picture above was taken. My guess is the late 1920’s. The Freedom Tower, which you see in the background of both pictures, was built in 1925. I do know, however, that the picture below was taken this afternoon. It’s amazing to see how much Biscayne Boulevard has changed over the years.
2 South Beach Loft Foreclosures on Meridian Avenue
Within the past week, I’ve come across two great bank-owned lofts on Meridian Avenue in South Beach. The first is located at 1700 Meridian Avenue in a development called Montclair Lofts. It is a bi-level 3 bedroom/3 bath loft with 2,300 square feet. The unit looks to be in great condition judging by the pictures that accompany the MLS listing. The bank is asking $749,900, or about $326 per square foot. According to public records, the judgment amount on this foreclosure was $1,050,855.
The second foreclosed loft is located at 2001 Meridian Avenue in a building called Meridian Lofts. It is a 1 bedroom/1 bath loft with 1,046 square feet of interior space. This loft also appears to be in great shape judging by the pictures accompanying the MLS listing. The bank is asking $391,900, or about $375 per square foot.
Both developments were built in 2005 and are within walking distance of world-famous Lincoln Road. I think both of these lofts represent good deals, even in this market.
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – January 2008
In the last update of the Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends in November 2007, I promised that the Miami and Miami Beach Condo Trends would be a monthly update. I hate breaking promises but December turned out to be much busier for me than I had expected. With the holidays on top of everything, it was a promise that I had to break.
I also mentioned the inclusion of a condo rental index. I still plan to include these stats within the next couple of months.
Below, you will find the January figures. The first box to the left shows the total number of condos that are currently available for sale on the MLS in Miami-Dade County. These include condos located in Miami, Miami Beach, Aventura, Homestead, Kendall, Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, etc. Keep in mind that these numbers do not include single family homes, just condos, townhomes and lofts. What surprised me is that the total number of listed condos has gone down since the November report. It dropped about 2 percent. However, the number of closed sales in the previous month fell sharply, down about 22 percent. The current condo inventory now represents 5.72 years of supply. That is roughly a 20 percent increase over the November figure. Thousands of new condos are ready to be delivered within the coming months, so we should see subsequent increases in upcoming months. Most of this increase will be throughout Miami, as opposed to Miami Beach or other areas of Miami-Dade County. You’ll notice that the figures are also broken down by price range to give you a better idea of which part of the condo market has been affected the most.
Below you’ll find the same statistics but these only encompass condos located in Miami. In November, the existing condo inventory represented 4.04 years of supply. Now, just two months later, we’re sitting on 6.01 years of condo supply. This represents approximately a whopping 49 percent increase! This is mainly attributed to a large drop-off in closed sales in the previous month.
The following statistics encompass condos located throughout Miami Beach. The increase of inventory in Miami Beach isn’t so startling. Miami Beach now has 6.15 years of condo supply compared to the 5.89 years of condo supply that we saw in November. This represents an increase of about 4.5 percent. There were only 3 fewer sales in December compared with the number of closed condos in October.
The inventory levels, as of right now, for condos located in Miami and Miami Beach are relatively close. I think by next month you’ll see Miami pulling ahead. What’s your prediction for the inventory levels that we’ll see for Miami condos in July 2008?
New Miami Condos – Closings Rates for January 2008
The chart below will show you the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began. Click on the following links to view the updates in November and December:
Below you will find the date that each development began closings:
Before anybody says it, I realize that One Bal Harbour is not a “Miami Condo”. I didn’t want to change the title of the post just to reflect the fact that One Bal Harbour is located in Bal Harbour. I also didn’t want to exclude it from the list because there is much interest in One Bal Harbour, and besides, One Bal Harbour owners would criticize me for not providing an update when the closing rate has jumped since the last update.
The closing rate at One Bal Harbour has hit the 70 percent mark. This is a significant increase since last month’s update. The stock price of WCI surged about 15 percent in the regular session on Wall Street and another 19 percent in after-hours trading on Wednesday after it reported that it has successfully been able to amend its credit and loan agreements. The news story was not publicly disclosed until after the bell. There are currently 55 condo units that have not closed, according to public records. The news reveals that WCI now has a considerable amount of time to sell these last remaining condos.
Ten Museum Park has had about a 7 percent increase in its closing rate while 50 Biscayne has had about an 18 percent increase, since the December update. With the exception of One Bal Harbour, Ten Museum Park and 50 Biscayne, none of the other developments have had an increase of over 5 percent. The two new entries to this month’s update are Loft Downtown 2 and Quantum on the Bay. Loft Downtown 2 should have been included in the November update since closings began in September but it simply slipped my mind. Sporting a 74 percent closing rate, however, makes Loft Downtown 2 appear quite successful in comparison to the other Miami condos. The Grand Opening Party for Loft Downtown 2 is scheduled for Thursday evening.
Closings at Quantum on the Bay began earlier this month and as I’ve stated many times before, closings can take up to 2-3 weeks before they are recorded with the county (however, I have heard that as of January 1, 2008, this is no longer the case. A reliable source told me that a step that sometimes delays the process is no longer required. Closings should now be recorded within 1-2 days after the condo has closed. Can a title agent elaborate on this for me?). Don’t take too much away from the low closing rate at Quantum on the Bay. I mainly included it to act as a stepping stone for next month’s update and let everyone know that it is now on my radar.
