Many of you have probably already heard about what happened on Wall Street on Friday. For those of you who didn’t, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its third-biggest drop of 2007. Much of the drop occurred in the final two hours of trading. The Blue Chip index dropped 281.42 points. Much of the sell-off was attributed to the credit squeeze that Wall Street is feeling as a direct result of lousy lending practices in the housing market that occurred in recent years.
There were 3 major stories that unraveled throughout the day on Wall Street. The primary story in the morning was that of Bear Stearns. The S&P downgraded Bear Stearns’ rating from stable to negative. That sent shares of Bear Stearns plummeting. It recovered by mid-afternoon but once again sold off as a Bear Stearns conference call began. The CFO of Bear Stearns, Sam Molinaro, was quoted as saying “It’s (speaking of the recent credit crunch) been as bad as I’ve seen it in 22 years. The fixed-income market environment we’ve seen in the last eight weeks has been pretty extreme”. Shares of BSC once again sold off.
The second story to emerge was the reduction of Alt-A loans by major lenders. For those of you who don’t know what Alt-A is, it is a category of lending that resides between prime and subprime lending. Wells Fargo announced on Friday that they would curtail Alt-A lending. Other large banks followed suit. Wachovia announced that it would discontinue Alt-A loans altogether.
A large portion of mortgage loans are categorized as Alt-A. The suspension of Alt-A loans by major lenders means that a bulk of the demand for housing could become nonexistent. A hedge fund representative in New York told me on Friday that subprime and Alt-A represented 40% of the loans in 2006. A local, reputable mortgage broker feels that this number could be as high as 60% in South Florida. The following chart from Credit Suisse illustrates the growth in Alt-A and subprime lending from 2002 to 2006. In 2002, Alt-A represented 5% of loan originations while sub-prime represented 6%. By 2006, Alt-A and subprime loans each represented 20% of the overall loan originations.
The third major story to hit PR newswires was that Wells Fargo would increase their prime 30-year Jumbo rate to 8 percent. Other major lenders followed suit. Last week, a 30-year Jumbo rate could be acquired for 6.875%. That’s a huge increase. Potential home buyers could be priced out of the market.
So why am I reporting this you may wonder. The impact on the Miami condo market is inevitable. Many of the speculators who acquired preconstruction condos 2-3 years ago fall into the Alt-A category. Even if these speculators plan to close on their preconstruction condo units, they may not be afforded that opportunity. Major banks have begun to shut off the valve to extend credit to even the most credit-worthy. If this happens then the fall-out on Miami condos could be grim at best. These practices, however, will return full circle to the banks who loaned money to developers. If banks shut off Alt-A loans then investors will be unable to close on condo units which will mean that developers will get back a larger percentage of the total units in the building. Developers will then be unable to make payments on the loan and they’ll eventually go bust. Banks who shut off the valves will push the pain onto the banks who made these loans. I know that Corus Bank, a publicly traded company, was a major lender to condo developers in Miami. (You’re welcome for that information).
The good news is that smaller banks will fill in the gap to lend money to Alt-A borrowers. The bad news is that interest rates quoted to home buyers will be higher. The higher rates will price out potential condo contracts holders who plan to close or will lead to higher foreclosure rates down the road. If I were closing on a condo within the next 60 days then I would definitely contact a reputable mortgage broker ASAP to have them lock you in at a good rate. Who knows where rates will be in upcoming weeks. I can definitely point you in the right direction if anyone needs guidance in this matter.
Many feel that a rate cut by the Fed is inevitable. We should see one very soon.
Follow-up: A late story emerged on Friday, after the markets closed, that Option One Mortgage Corporation is ceasing all loans “secured by condos in Florida”. Option One is a top-10 non-prime lender and subsidiary of H&R Block. I don’t even want to think about what will happen to the Miami condo market if other major lenders follow their lead. I’ll leave it at that.
Marina Blue – Closings to Begin Towards the End of September 2007
I was notified today that closings at Marina Blue are scheduled to begin towards the end of September. Marina Blue is a 60-story luxury high-rise building going up in the neighborhood known as Park West. The fantastic thing about Marina Blue is that every unit has a beautiful view of Biscayne Bay.
As closing dates approach, there are some great opportunities to own a condo at Marina Blue. As in other developments, there are investors who purchased condos at Marina Blue in hopes to flip them prior to closing. As everyone knows, the market has changed dramatically in the past two years and many of these speculators are content to accept a loss on their deposit to avoid having to close.
I received a phone call last weekend from someone who placed a one bedroom condo under contract at Marina Blue for $296,000 as a resale. The condo is on the 15th floor and has 845 square feet of interior space. He was still in his 15-day rescission period and wanted to know if I felt that he got a good price. I told him that he got a great price. In my opinion, anything under $300,000 is a solid buy at Marina Blue. The long-term prospects for that neighborhood are great. I feel that one bedroom condos at Marina Blue will easily rent for $1,700 per month.
Currently, there’s a one bedroom for sale at Marina Blue that is on the 17th floor. It is listed at $320,000. The condo has 845 square feet. I think this unit can be acquired for under $300,000.
There’s also a 2 bedroom at Marina Blue on the 9th floor that is listed for $455,000. This condo has 1,327 square feet of interior space. If you can get this condo for around $430,000 then I think that your long-term prospects are bright.
In the upcoming years, I feel that Park West will be the best condo neighborhood in all of Miami. It was developed to be Miami’s equivalent to Manhattan’s Park Avenue.
At the beginning of July, I published a post about the neighborhood of Park West and the four luxury high-rise buildings being developed in that neighborhood. The post was entitled “Pictorial & Video Review of The Fantastic Four in Miami“. Take a look at that post for more information about the Downtown Miami neighborhood of Park West and what it has to offer. You will also see some pictures and a video of Marina Blue as it stood towards the beginning of July.
Miami Condo Auction – Platinum Condominium – 20 Units Up for Auction in September
I was notified tonight that twenty condo units at Platinum Condominium will be auctioned off on September 20, 2007. Eight of those units will be auctioned “absolute”. This means that the condo(s) will be sold to the highest bidder. There are no minimums and no reserves.
This is major news! The 20 units up for auction at Platinum Condominium represent 16.8% of the overall units in the building. The are a total of 119 units in the building with 7 units per floor. I think 20%-30% default rates in other developments is not out of the question.
A few months ago, after Platinum Condominium began closings, I did a pictorial and video review of the building. You can view it by clicking on the following link: pictorial and video review of Platinum Condominium. Any information that you seek regarding this development will be found there. If for some chance, you have a question that isn’t answered there, then feel free to contact me.
For you Miami condo vultures, this might be a great opportunity to own a bulk of units at a really good price. If they can be acquired at a good price, you may even be able to rent them out with positive cash flow until the neighborhood turns around and sell them for a nice profit.
Those looking to buy a single condo at an auction at a good price, this may be your opportunity. I am very knowledgeable in the various floor plans at Platinum Condominium. My services are available to you to act as your representative at the auction. I will be attending the auction regardless. I will act in your best interests. If I walk out of that auction without one of my clients acquiring one condo then you can be assured that the prices offered were too high. I am completely comfortable walking away from that auction without one sale being made. The people who know me well know that I am not a tough or pushy salesman.
There’s a 2 bedroom/2 bathroom condo foreclosure at Courvoisier Courts in Brickell Key that is listed for $449,900. The condo has 1,288 square feet of living space. It also comes with two assigned parking spaces.
I took a look at the unit tonight for an interested client. It is in tip-top condition. The living room has large tiled floors and the bedrooms have brand new carpeting.
The bank’s judgment against the previous owner was for $444,748.00. The condo was foreclosed on June 28, 2007.
The lowest that a 2/2 has sold for at Courvoisier Courts in the past six months is $475,000. That was for an 05 line on the 17th floor. There were also two other 2/2 units that closed within that time frame. Those closed for $540,000 and $555,000. An 06 line unit on the 24th floor sold for $555,000 on June 28, 2007.
The unit doesn’t have a water view though since it is only on the fifth floor. It is an 06 line. The other 06 lines have a partial water view at best though since they face northeast and have obstructed views by other developments. The balcony was pretty large and deeper than most units I’ve seen at Courvoisier Courts.
Brickell Key is one of the most exclusive neighborhoods in Miami. I think getting this condo for $419,000, or $325 per square foot is a solid buy. The July Brickell Key Condo Index revealed that the average price per square foot of condos listed at Courvoisier Courts was $482.45. The average price per square foot of condos sold in the past six months at Courvoisier Courts was $415.01. Most units at Courvoisier Courts come with carpeting throughout, as they were delivered when the building was converted into condos. As mentioned before, this unit has tiled floors in the living room and carpeting in the bedrooms.
Courvoisier Courts was built in 1997. Courvoisier Courts offers fantastic amenities which include: full-service concierge, 24-hour security, fully equipped business center, bi-level fitness center, racquetball/squash courts, bayside swimming pool and sundeck, club room with billiards table, theater room, and valet parking. Courvoisier Courts has a total of 272 condo units in the building.
This is a great opportunity to own a 2 bedroom at Courvoisier Courts for over 20% less than what 2 bedrooms have sold for at Courvoisier Courts in the past six months.
1/1.5 @ Ten Museum Park for $310,000 – Reduced Again!
Someone contacted me last week to see if I could help them find a buyer for their 1 bedroom/1.5 bath condo at Ten Museum Park. He is perfectly able to close but would rather sell it to an end-user than carry it for a while. If he closes on the unit though then he will end up holding onto it. His closing date is approximately 30 days from now but he thinks that he could have it extended if an interested buyer surfaces.
His condo has 886 square feet of interior space and a 143 square foot terrace. It is an “05” line. The floor plan is below.
As of now, the best priced “05” line available on the MLS through the developer is priced at $400,000. Here is your opportunity to buy at Ten Museum Park for much less. Make an offer today!
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
Short-Sale at One Miami – 1 Bedroom/1Bath for $275K !!!
There’s a 1 bedroom/1 bath short-sale at One Miami that was reduced $44,900 today. It is now listed at $275,000 and has 846 square feet of living space. That’s a great deal! The unit is now listed at $325 per square foot. The Brickell condo index for July revealed that the average price per square foot of units sold at One Miami over the last six months is $453.66. There have been 8 one bedroom/one bath units that have closed at One Miami in the past six months. They have sold in the range of $349,000 to $430,000. Like I said, this is a great deal! Prices for one bedroom units at One Miami have come in significantly in recent months but this short-sale unit is the best priced of them all.
The unit comes with one assigned parking space and one complimentary valet space. Amenities at One Miami include: two swimming pools and hot tub, two clubs rooms, two fitness centers, business center, 24-hour security/concierge and valet parking. The maintenance fee is $389 per month. High-speed Internet, basic cable TV, water, sewer and garbage are included in the maintenance fee as well.
Take a look at the MLS listing for more information.
Miami Condo Index – Brickell – July 2007
You may have noticed that some of the June numbers have changed. This is because I originally took out the closed sales that were obviously due to mortgage fraud. I recently went back and included those sales because I wanted to present things just as they were. However, this made listings appear to be priced more accurately, which they aren’t. To condo owners, and to some Realtors not in the know, these fraudulent transactions have made their listings appear justified. They need to realize that these transactions are just that, fraudulent, and very inaccurate.
The average price per square foot of condo units listed in the 18 Brickell buildings covered in my index dropped $7.44 since last month. A drop in the price of condos listed in Brickell over the last month was highly expected. I actually thought that prices would have come down even more though. These 18 buildings in Brickell had an average price per square foot of $528.84 this month versus $536.28 in June. The weighted average price per square foot was $540.17 for July versus $547.06 in June.
The most shocking thing that the July Brickell condo index revealed was the number of transactions that occurred in one month’s time. There are a total of 5,348 condo units represented in the 18 buildings that comprise my Brickell condo index. Take a guess at how many units have closed from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007.
Had enough time to come up with a guesstimate? Nine. That’s the number of units that sold during that time period throughout the 18 buildings that make up the Brickell condo index. Everyone knows the market is slow but I don’t think anyone could have guessed to what extent. Nine! I still can’t get that out of my head. There are a total of 875 units available on the market right now in those 18 buildings. This equates to 16.36 percent of the total units. This number is actually much higher in many of the newer buildings. Many of the older buildings have 20 or less listings in the entire building. The instability lies in the newer buildings; the buildings that were heavily funded by speculators.
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the past six months in Brickell actually went up slightly. But keep in mind that there were nine transactions in all 18 buildings. Most Realtors would focus on the fact that prices are actually going up. However, I will tell you, first hand, that these numbers are attributed to fraudulent transactions. The price per square foot went from $471.76, in June, to $473.95, in July. Most of this was due to a transaction that appears to be fraudulent at The Sail on Brickell.
The reason why I feel that this transaction is fraudulent is for a number of reasons. One, the unit was sold at the highest price per square foot in the building with concrete floors, two, the broker is a discount broker who charges 4 percent per transaction, three, in every transaction he seems to find the buyer and already holds the listing, and four, he finds the buyer within four days. I did a search by the broker’s email to see what other transactions have occurred. I’m not going to name names but let’s just say that this broker has at least six transactions where this has occurred. The same exact thing. He finds a buyer to acquire a condo at The Sail on Brickell within four days at the highest price possible. Let me tell you, firsthand as a Realtor, that it is hard enough to find a buyer in this market to buy something at the best price available. How is this guy finding a buyer at the highest price available? Within 4 days? Like I said, I’m not going to name names but something fishy is going on there. If someone, like the Miami Herald, wants to investigate this thoroughly and name me as the source, then so be it, but I’m not divulging names. I don’t want to have a hit-man after me. Hopefully I’m wrong about what has occurred in The Sail at Brickell, but I doubt it.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | 14.86%
The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 2.70%
The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 1.01%
The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 8.68%
Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 30.64%
Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | 1.53%
Opera Tower Closings to Begin in September
In a previous post I stated that I heard closings at Opera Tower would begin in July. However, I confirmed today that this was inaccurate. Closings will begin in September for condo units on the first 21 floors of Opera Tower. I was told that closings on the remaining floors would begin in October. Opera Tower sent this letter to contract holders at the beginning of June. It provides important information regarding closings.
It will be interesting to see what happens there. Opera Tower has a total of 635 condo units made up of studios, one and two bedroom condos. That’s a lot of units coming onto the market given the current condition of the Miami real estate market. I think closings at Opera Tower will help reveal the true nature of the market at this time. It will act as a prologue to what will happen at other developments scheduled to begin closings in the next 12 months. It will be important to keep an eye on closings, or lack of closings, that occur at Opera Tower.
My prediction is that the developer of Opera Tower will get back a lot of units. It is a shame that the developer charges 13 percent of the sales price to contract holders who want to resell their contract. It would be in the best interest of the developer to help these contract holders, who are primarily investors, get their unit into the hands of an end-user. Many of these investors are looking to break-even or accept a small loss. With a 13 percent resale fee, however, it makes this nearly impossible. This will come back to bite the developer of Opera Tower in the ass. As of now, the best deal through the developer for an east facing unit is one priced at $509,000. It is on the 21st floor. That comes out to $485 per square foot. I think within six months we’ll see 2 bedrooms at Opera Tower priced below $400,000.
Midtown 2 was a recent large development to begin closings. Closings there began about a month and a half ago. Last week the South Florida Business Journal reported that 17 contract holders at Midtown 2, who want out of their contracts, filed a class action lawsuit against the developer. The attorney representing the plaintiffs is also planning a class action lawsuit representing contract holders of Midtown 4. This lawsuit could spell trouble for all developers if the judge rules in favor of the plaintiffs.
