The chart above will show you the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began.
One Bal Harbour is the newest edition to this monthly update. Closings began November 16, 2007. The percentage of closings may seem very low but keep in mind that it can take up to three weeks for closings to be recorded. However, it normally takes about five days for closings to be recorded. I know for a fact that several extensions have been granted at One Bal Harbour. I have a client who is planning to close on his unit this upcoming week. He will then sell it for a sizable loss to a replacement buyer who contacted me a few weeks ago in a simultaneous closing. I can tell you that WCI has delivered a fantastic product. An investment group that I met with today told me, after seeing a large variety of condo developments throughout South Florida, that One Bal Harbour was by far their favorite. I viewed a $5.7M condo there this past week that was simply amazing!
If you compare last month’s graph to this month’s you will see that there hasn’t been much of a change. Latitude on the River went up about 2%, Star Lofts on the Bay has remained unchanged (they’re in trouble), Onyx on the Bay has gone up about 3.5%, Ten Museum Park has gone up 7.5%, 2 Midtown has gone up about 4.5% and 50 Biscayne has gone up about 6.5%.
I’m actually quite shocked that more closing haven’t occurred since last month’s numbers were released. I realize that the market is slow but I would have thought that 1 or 2 other condo developments would have hit the 70% mark. I especially thought that 50 Biscayne would have had an increase of at least 10%. These figures, when compared to last month’s, are quite an eye opener.
New Condo Construction Closing Rates
The chart above will show you the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began. They are in no particular order.
Below, you will find the date that the first closing in each development occurred:
Star Lofts on the Bay and Onyx on the Bay haven’t had any new closings in quite some time. I think they are pretty much done. Midtown 2 has maybe one or two new closings every couple of weeks. Might as well put a fork in them as well.
Latitude on the River has done comparatively well but it seems as if closings have plateaued. I think it will be difficult for them to reach the 80 percent mark within the next couple of months unless a bulk buyer steps in to buy the defaulted condos.
Ten Museum Park has been struggling but I know that an individual has stepped in to buy over ten units there within the past couple of weeks and is still looking to buy more. Only about half of these closings have been recorded. Rumor has it that a separate bulk buyer has a strong interest in buying the remaining units that come back to the developer of Ten Museum Park after all closings have been completed. I think by January we’ll see the percentage of closings at Ten Museum Park top 90 percent.
50 Biscayne began closings on October 1, 2007 and is doing quite well. Most closings get recorded within the first week but there can be a two to three week delay so some condos that have closed within the past two weeks may not be reflected in the numbers above. It will be interesting to see how high the percentage of closings at 50 Biscayne rises by the end of the year.
Sunday Afternoon Bicycle Ride Through Brickell and Downtown Miami
Last week, I purchased a new road bike. My hope was to not only get a good cardio workout while cycling but also to get some great pictures of Miami and South Beach condos while doing so. My goal today was to get some shots of the condo developments in Brickell and Downtown that were either recently completed or will be completed within the next year. Unfortunately, it was a very cloudy day as you will see below.
Closings at Plaza on Brickell will likely begin in January. This development will add 1,000 new units to the Brickell condo market.
Closings at 1060 Brickell should occur around the same time. 1060 Brickell will add 582 condo units.
Closings at Axis will likely begin around the middle of 2008. Axis will add 718 units.
Closings for 500 Brickell are scheduled for the beginning of 2008. This development will add 633 units.
Infinity at Brickell will likely be completed towards the middle of 2008. Infinity will bring 459 condo units to the market.
I forgot to get a shot of Brickell on the River South. That development will add 322 units. I also didn’t get one today for Latitude on the River but I’ve displayed pictures of that building in the past. Closings at Latitude started about two months ago. It has 455 condo units.
Asia is located on Brickell Key. It is the only development under construction there. It will add 123 condo units when it is completed in the first half of 2008.
Closings at 50 Biscayne began about a week and a half ago. I walked in the lobby last week and it is gorgeous. I didn’t have my camcorder with me at the time, however. I will try to get a video and picture tour of the building within the next week. 50 Biscayne has 529 condo units.
Closings at Loft Downtown 2 are scheduled to begin this month. In fact, they may have already begun. It will add 496 units.
Everglades on the Bay (now known as Vizcayne) likely won’t be completed until the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009. It will add 866 condo units to the Miami real estate market.
I’ve been told that closings at Marina Blue are scheduled to begin November 1, 2007. I don’t see that happening so soon but maybe I’m wrong. My guess would be sometime in December or January. Marina Blue will add 516 units.
900 Biscayne Bay will likely be completed in the first half of 2008. It will add 516 units as well.
Closings for units at Ten Museum Park began about three months ago. Closings are still underway. It has 200 units. Marquis probably won’t be completed until the end of 2008 to beginning of 2009. It will bring 306 units to the Miami condo market.
In conclusion, there might be a tiny bit of an inventory problem in Miami (that was me being sarcastic). I also didn’t include Icon Brickell and Epic Miami which will be completed in 2009. Icon Brickell will add 1,816 units while Epic will add 966 units. The condo developments in the Arts District will also add a little over 2,000 new units to the market within the next six months.
Closings at Latitude on the River Faring Better Than Most Miami Condo Developments
I have been tracking closings at Latitude on the River for the past couple of months. As of two days ago, Latitude on the River has been able to close 275 of their 455 total units. The closed units represent roughly 60 percent of the overall building. Closings are usually recorded within one week but can sometimes take 2-3 weeks before they are finally recorded.
The 60 percent may not seem like very much given that closings began July 27 of this year. However, Latitude on the River has had a higher closing percentage than other developments that began closings earlier than them such as Onyx on the Bay, Star Lofts on the Bay, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park.
The majority of closings at Latitude on the River occurred within the first four weeks. In fact, about 66 percent of their total closings occurred within those first 28 days. Closings have not completely tapered off, however. With the exception of the tenth week, they have been able to close over 10 units per week. The tenth week only had three recorded closings but additional closings likely occurred but just haven’t been recorded yet.
The fact that Latitude on the River has fared better than other developments that have begun closings as of late is the good news. The bad news is that there haven’t been any pending or closed sales since closings began. There are currently 70 listings available for sale and 77 available for rent. The 70 units available for sale represents about 25 percent of the closed units. There is likely much overlap in the units available for rent and sale. There have been 7 units that have successfully rented since closings began and 6 that are currently pending in the MLS.
Prices in the MLS for units at Latitude on the River have continued to slide over the past couple of months and are moving towards a point where a pending sale is likely to occur within the next 30 days. The best priced 1/1 is listed at $254,900 while the best priced 2 bedroom, which is actually the largest 2 bedroom in the building at 1,300 square feet of interior space, is listed at $399,999.
The problem is that foreclosures and short-sales in other developments throughout Brickell that are closer to the bay have increased within recent months. They are offering finished units at prices that are similar, or in some cases, better than those offered at Latitude on the River. It will be interesting to see where prices throughout Brickell end up once the dust settles.
Highly Motivated Seller of Two Latitude on the River 2 bedroom/2.5 Bath Condos – $395,000!!!
The owner of two condos at Latitude on the River contacted me earlier this week. He is highly motivated to sell both of his 2 bedroom/2.5 bath condos and is willing to consider all reasonable offers. He has already closed on both of these B12 units and is willing to accept a loss on each of them.
One of the condos is located on the 17th floor while the other is located on the 20th floor. He went into contract on both of these units in Summer of 2005 but paid the original prices that were offered when sales were initially launched. The contract price on the condo located on the 17th floor was $455,000 while the one on the 20th floor was $461,000. His closing costs were approximately $10,000 for each unit. The slideshow below will show some pictures that I took of the unit on the 17th floor.
The unit on the 17th floor is listed at $459,000 which currently offers the best price per square foot of all 2 bedroom condos at Latitude on the River. There’s a two bedroom listed on the MLS for less but the square footage is inaccurate. The listing agent of that unit decided to include the terrace space as well. The interior space of that condo is actually only 1,179 square feet.
The amenities at Latitude on the River are highly impressive and is a huge selling point for this building. It has some of the best amenities that I’ve seen of the newer condo developments. At this price point, I haven’t seen any that match the quality of amenities that can be found at Latitude on the River. The lobby, landscaping and water features of the building are quite impressive as well.
2-story state-of-the-art fitness center and yoga room
4 high-speed elevators
If you’re in the market to buy a 2 bedroom/2.5 bath at Latitude on the River then this is your chance to score a great deal. Contact me today if you’d like to submit an offer on one or both of these condos.
Both of the units come decorator-ready with concrete floors. The following slideshow will show you a few pictures of a fully decorated unit so you can see what one of these can look like.
Update: This condo closed on December 27, 2008 for $546,000.
Latitude on the River – Picture Tour of the Common Areas and a 2 Bedroom/2.5 Bath Condo
Last Monday I visited Latitude on the River with two sets of clients. The picture slideshow below will show everybody what we saw during our tour of Latitude on the River. You will also see some pictures of a 2 bedroom/2.5 bath condo on the 36th floor that we visited.
Everyone was very impressed with the lobby at Latitude on the River. In fact, all of the common areas were impressive, especially given the price point of the building.
Latitude on the River offers a lot of amenities for residents to enjoy. I have a feeling that Latitude on the River is going to be a very social building.
Anyone else get a chance to visit the building yet? If so, I’d love to hear what you thought. For those of you who haven’t, any comments on the pictures?
Latitude on the River – 2 Bedroom/2.5 Bath Condo on 42nd Floor – $407,000
Here’s a great opportunity two own a spacious 2 bedroom condo at Latitude on the River on a very high floor. This 2 bedroom/2.5 bath is located one floor below the lower-Penthouse level and is located on the southeast corner of the building. You will have fabulous views of Biscayne Bay to the south. The following picture was taken from inside the unit in question.
The condo has 1,300 square feet of interior space and a 128 square foot balcony. The image below is the floor plan of the condo available for sale at Latitude on the River. It is a B12 unit.
The view in south facing units will be much better than the north facing units as long as they clear the Latitude One office building. The Latitude One office building is only 22 stories so this B12 unit on the 42nd floor will easily clear the top of Latitude One. Not only that, but it will also clear Neo Vertika to the east to offer fantastic views of Biscayne Bay and South Beach from the living room.
The price per square foot works out to be $368. The July Brickell Condo Index revealed that units sold over the last six months at Neo Vertika, which is a one-year old building right next to Latitude on the River, had an average price per square foot of $375.53. Here’s your opportunity to grab one of the best 2 bedroom units in a brand new building at a great price. The contract holder is set to close in approximately five weeks. She can assign the contract so a simultaneous closing won’t be necessary.
Update: The following slideshow will show you some pictures of the common areas at Latitude on the River. There are also some pictures of a 2 bedroom/2.5 bath condo on the 36th floor.
This is a follow-up post to one I wrote a few weeks ago entitled “Advice to Miami Condo Sellers“. That post has become one of my most widely read posts.
I’ve always been more of a buyer’s agent than a seller’s agent. It’s been that way ever since I started in this business. I’ve never been much of a salesman though. In fact, I initially didn’t even want to become a real estate agent because I always analogized the phrase “real estate agent” to “sales person”. The latter always made me cringe. Thoughts of “selling somebody” or “making a sale happen” didn’t favor well with me.
I finally realized, however, that people will always have a need to buy housing and finding buyers the best deals is a niche within itself. I figured that with my financial background I could provide a unique perspective and a more in-depth analysis of the market than most agents. This blog is a natural extension of that mindset years ago.
Nowadays, it seems like everyone is looking for a deal and the right opportunity to buy in Miami. The million dollar question that I get from the people who contact me each day is “When will be the best time to buy a condo in Miami?”.
The answer to that question depends on your objectives and knowledge of the Miami condo market. If you’re an investor “looking to buy a condo in a good neighborhood of Miami at a significant discount” then the answer to that question is as vague as your objective – “Nobody knows!”. That’s like saying that you want to buy the best stock at the bottom of a bear market. Good luck!
Some of the people who contact me have only been to Miami once or twice in their life. Some haven’t ever visited Miami, but have read about Miami and have seen the gorgeous palm trees and majestic waters in movies. For those of you, the opportunity to buy a Miami condo at the “best” time won’t ever come. You need to have knowledge of what you want before you can ascertain the best time to buy it. A knowledgeable Realtor can’t even point you in the right direction without first knowing which direction that might be.
Having an objective like wanting to buy a two bedroom condo at Ten Museum Park with a direct bay view on a high floor at a 20 percent discount of 2004 prices is much better. An opportunity like that may or may not present itself but at least you know what you want and a local Realtor will be much better equipped to help you find it.
Keep in mind that the “market bottom” for the Miami condo market might not necessarily be the best time to buy for people with such a pinpoint objective as the one above. These people might miss out on better opportunities that will have passed them by. For example, take the 2 bedroom condo going up for auction at Villa Regina that I mentioned in yesterday’s post. That condo may very well sell for the best price per square foot of any condo at Villa Regina from here on out. Someone looking to buy a condo at Villa Regina, but is waiting for the condo market to bottom in Miami, might miss out on a fantastic opportunity. It may or may not end up being the best deal at Villa Regina but keep in mind that only one person will buy the bottom. Wouldn’t you be happy though knowing that you bought at a 20 percent or 30 percent discount or whatever it may be?
My advice for those buyers who will be end-users is the same. Know what you want and the price point that will make you happy. Opportunities to buy condos in Miami at a discount with built-in equity are already present. Foreclosures, auctions and short sales all offer these opportunities. Being happy with the condo in which you will live should be the primary concern for end-users, not price. Having a cushion to weather the storm that lies ahead is an added bonus.
There is no doubt that condo prices will correct themselves from the highs that we experienced in 2005 and beginning of 2006. In my opinion, they already have. I feel that we’re already back at 2004 prices. Every week I get a number of calls and emails from people who bought preconstruction condos as resales in 2005 and beginning of 2006. They want to know if there is any chance to break-even if they close on their preconstruction condo contracts and sell at current market prices. The answer is overwhelmingly “NO”. The current market price is usually at or slightly below the amount of their deposit money, which the majority of the time is 20 percent. This tells me that we are already at least 20 percent off the highs.
The inventory problems of the Miami condo market is old news. Demand dried up over a year ago as a result of this news. The real estate market, however, is not as liquid and as efficient as the financial markets. Buyers have already processed the news about the Miami condo market. Sellers have begun to process the news but can’t simply hit the best bid to get themselves out. Those selling existing condos can, however, lower their prices.
The fate of the preconstruction condo market is different though. The news came out over a year ago but we’re all waiting for the condos to close to see where they will get priced. Nobody knows! It’s like trading has been halted, due to news, and we’re all standing around waiting for the market to reopen.
As a side-note to investors and second home buyers unfamiliar with Brickell, if you’re looking to buy a newly constructed condo in a bayfront building within the next 7 months then you won’t find any. Of the five developments scheduled for completion within the next 7 months in Brickell, none of them are bayfront buildings. Only two, Latitude on the River (which has begun closings) and Brickell on the River South, are waterfront buildings. They both, as their name implies, reside on the Miami River. Of the four developments scheduled for completion in 2009, only two, Icon Brickell and Epic, are bayfront developments. After those are completed only one bayfront parcel will be left in Brickell. Villa Magna was planned for development on that parcel but the project was recently canceled and the fate of that land is still up in the air.
As for the four buildings being developed in the Downtown Miami neighborhood known as Park West, none are bayfront but they might as well be. Ten Museum Park, Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne and Marquis each reside directly behind Biscayne Boulevard and what was formerly known as Bicentennial Park, both of which won’t obstruct views of the bay as long as they are owned by the city of Miami.
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
