Developers Renting Their Inventory as a Last Resort
On Friday, the Daily Business Review published an article entitled, “Condominiums: Holding Pattern”. The article points out that several developers of recently completed condo developments have opted to rent their unsold or defaulted inventory to remain afloat.
The question that resounds throughout the article is whether or not this approach makes economic sense for these developers. Their hope is that the rental income earned will buy them time until the market rebounds.
The Midtown Miami development lies at the forefront of the article. Midtown 2 has had considerable problems with closings since they began in May of this year. As stated in the article, I have found only 179 closings for their 338 total units. The class-action lawsuit against the developer by contract holders certainly hasn’t helped matters. However, the root of the problem lies in the fact that the preconstruction prices offered by the developer were much too high for that neighborhood. Units were sold with a promise that the neighborhood would somehow be transformed within three short years. The reality is that the neighborhood is still at least another 3-5 years away from delivering on that promise. Initial prices at Midtown 2, and Midtown 4 for that matter, were higher than more desirable Brickell condo developments such as Plaza on Brickell, 500 Brickell and Axis.
Sandra de la Torre, a sales agent at Midtown Miami, stated in the article that 20 developer units were available for rent and 20-25 were available for sale. I highly doubt that this is the only inventory that the developer has in his possession, given that only 179 closings at Midtown 2 appear in public records. It is much more likely that at least 30 percent of the building will eventually be available for lease through the developer. I haven’t heard anything lately regarding the class-action lawsuit, so maybe it is still pending and a large portion of the unaccounted units can be tied to that.
Rental prices will need to be quite attractive at 2 Midtown in order for potential tenants to be enticed into signing a lease there. Many more options will become available for renters in the upcoming months in more desirable neighborhoods at attractive prices. In the Miami Arts District, The 1800 Club, in my opinion, will drive rental prices down throughout the neighborhood once closings begin and investors eventually opt to lease their units. The prices at The 1800 Club were quite attractive when sales were initially launched. This is one condo building where it might make economic sense for the developer to rent its remaining inventory. The neighborhood immediately surrounding The 1800 Club has a greater chance of rebounding within the next couple of years than that surrounding Midtown Miami. Vulture capital funds should keep a close eye on The 1800 Club because it could become the ideal development to invest in future months if prices dip below initial preconstruction prices.
Plaza on Brickell and Axis are two condo developments in Brickell that will drive down rental prices throughout the neighborhood once they are completed. Both were attractively priced and will ultimately provide Brickell renters with highly competitive rental prices. Both developments were backed by a high percentage of investors who will also likely lease their units to wait for the next upturn in the condo market.
The Sail on Brickell was also mentioned in the article as being another development that has sought to rent its remaining inventory. I was not aware that Renzi Development had failed to close on it 152 total units until I read this story. I wasn’t surprised, however, given that it is a second-tier condo development in Brickell that has been riddled by mortgage fraud. As a result, the Sail on Brickell will no longer be included in the Brickell Condo Index. It will eventually be replaced by Latitude on the River once it has closed on all of its units.
As for Midtown 2, I think they’ll be lucky to get rental rates of $1.75 per square foot. The “rent and wait” option doesn’t make economic sense for this development, in my opinion. The developers of the Sail on Brickell, which doesn’t reside on Brickell Avenue, will also have difficulties in making their rental numbers work. I think one bedrooms there will eventually rent for around $1,250 per month.
Saturday Afternoon View of the Arts District
It was a gorgeous afternoon here in South Florida yesterday. I was heading west on the Venetian Causeway and was compelled to pull over after paying the toll. The developments along Biscayne Bay looked so magnificent from this view that I wanted to share it with my readers. (Especially those who aren’t local to Miami.)
Above, you will see the following developments from left to right: Venetia Condo (completed in 1980), Marriott Hotel, The Grand (completed in 1986), Opera Tower (completion by the end of this year), Bay Parc Plaza (rental building), The 1800 Club (completion by the end of this year), Quantum on the Bay (completion by the first quarter of 2008), Cite on the Bay (completed in 2004) andParamount Bay (completion by the first half of 2009).
On the northern half of the Arts District we have the following new developments: New Wave (completed in 2006), Star Lofts on the Bay (completed within the last three months), Onyx on the Bay (completed within the last three months), Platinum Condominium (completed within the last five months) and Blue Condominium (completed at the end of 2005).
The following is a close-up of The 1800 Club, Quantum on the Bay, Cite on the Bay and Paramount Bay:
The pictures above make the Edgewater look like a million bucks. It’s amazing what perspective can do. The reality is that the Arts District is still an up-and-coming neighborhood. Three years ago you wouldn’t dream about walking the streets after dark. The neighborhood has cleaned up a lot within the past three years but it’ll be another three years until somebody actually wants to walk the streets at night. The long-term outlook for the Arts District, however, is bright. The views from these bayfront buildings are amazing. In time, the neighborhood will blossom and it will become an attractive place to live. In the meantime, however, newly constructed condos in high-quality buildings are available at prices that don’t make sense for the neighborhood. Prices will come down and opportunities will emerge as the new condo supply far outpaces demand in the Arts District.
Star Lofts on the Bay – The Next Condo Development up for Auction?
Star Lofts on the Bay looks to me to be a prime candidate to have a developer closeout sale in the near future. Closings for units at Star Lofts on the Bay began towards the beginning of July. As of today, there have been a total of 18 recorded closings with the last one being recorded on August 14, 2007. Not one other unit has been recorded in over a month. I think it is safe to say that closings have slowed to a halt.
Star Lofts on the Bay is a boutique building with only 48 units in the entire building. The 18 recorded closings, however, indicates that 62.5 percent of the building has not closed. That is incredibly shocking!
There are currently a total of 14 units at Star Lofts on the Bay listed for sale in the MLS. Six of the units listed in the MLS, however, do not correspond with the units numbers of the ones that have closed. This means that either the units have closed but the records have not been updated to reflect this fact or these units were listed on the MLS without actually having closed on them. It is not uncommon to see condos listed on the MLS for sale prior to the contract holder closing on them. It’s not supposed to happen but it does. It can take up to three weeks for closings to be recorded so perhaps a few of these units closed within the past three weeks.
Below you will see the 18 units that have closed at Star Lofts on the Bay. Next to each unit number you will see the number of bedrooms for that unit, the purchase price and the current list price of the unit on the MLS.
As you can see, the preconstruction prices for units at Star Lofts on the Bay were very high and the price of units currently listed for sale are even higher. The average price per square foot of condos currently listed is over $540. Good luck getting that! If these units were to be auctioned, I don’t think anyone would pay more than $270 per square foot. The studio units might go for around $300 per square foot but that’s the only exception, in my opinion. The 2 bedrooms aren’t true two bedrooms. Because it is a loft building, the units are open without any walls to separate the bedrooms.
Star Lofts on the Bay is a waterfront building situated along Biscayne Bay at 700 NE 25 Street. It is located exactly five blocks south of Platinum Condominium. As is the case with Platinum Condominium, the neighborhood is the biggest deterrent for Star Lofts on the Bay. Most of the buildings in the area are old and run-down. You never want to build a mansion on a street full of average-sized single family homes. That is basically what happened here. Onyx on the Bay, which is the building next to Star Lofts on the Bay in the picture below, will also have this problem.
The picture slideshow below will show you some images that I found on the MLS of various units and the common areas of the building.
Preparing for the Platinum Condominium Auction
As many of you already know, the Platinum Condominium auction will be held this Thursday, September 20, 2007 at 7pm. 20 of the developer’s unsold condo units will be auctioned with 8 of them being sold absolute to the highest bidder regardless of price. The auction will be held at the Miami Biscayne Marriott located at 1633 N Bayshore Drive.
Today, I attended the open house at Platinum Condominium to take another look at the building, and specifically the units that will be auctioned. For those of you unaware, the 20 condo units up for auction have been organized into the following three groups. The 8 absolute units are underlined.
Group A
Unit 1602 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 1,042 total square feet – approx. monthly maintenance fee: $357
Unit 1802 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 1,042 total square feet – approx. monthly maintenance fee: $357
Unit 2002 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 1,042 total square feet – approx. monthly maintenance fee: $357
Unit 2102 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 1,042 total square feet – approx. monthly maintenance fee: $357
Unit 1705 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,142 total square feet – approx. monthly maintenance fee: $432
Unit 1905 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,142 total square feet – approx. monthly maintenance fee: $432
Unit 1806 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 988 total square feet – approx. monthly maintenance fee: $357
Unit PH-2206 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 988 total square feet (11-foot ceilings) – approx. monthly maintenance fee: $357
The auction house may or may not start the auction with Group A. They may take a vote to see which group participants in the auction would like to see auctioned first. Once the first group is selected, bidding will begin and the highest bidder will select his/her preferred unit from within that group. If the unit is not an absolute unit then the developer will have an opportunity to decide whether or not he would like accept that bid. If the developer declines the offer, then the bidder can select a different unit from within that group or sit down and select nothing. If the developer accepts the offer, then the unit is scratched from the list and bidding will start again. The process will be repeated until all units within that group have either been auctioned or the bidding fails to reach an acceptable price by the developer for the remaining units.
Group B, in my opinion, has the best units and should be auctioned at the highest prices. Many would think that Group C would be auctioned highest because it has the only 3 bedroom units available. The views from these 3 bedroom units though are horrible. However, Group C has Loft 103 which is my favorite unit in the entire building. It is truly an amazing loft with its 27-foot ceilings. It doesn’t have much of a view but who cares. The auction participants who haven’t toured this unit will likely hold very little value in it because it is only a one bedroom. It’s a great sleeper pick.
Loft 107, in Group A, pales in comparison to Loft 103. It has 17-foot ceilings and the layout is just decent. There’s a reason why it’s an absolute unit. I definitely prefer the 02 line over the 06 line in Group A but Penthouse 2206 was nice because of the additional 2 feet in ceiling height. The 2 bedroom/2 baths in Group A should go highest, followed by the 02 line units and finally the 06 line units. Loft 107 likely will go somewhere in the middle.
There’s definitely a big difference in the 01 line and 07 line condos found in Group B. Not only does the 01 line have much better views but the layout is much better as well. The living room space in the 07 line was lacking to say the least. It was more like one big kitchen/dining room.
Every unit in the building comes with only one parking space. Each additional parking space will cost you $20,000. There is also an option to buy a storage space that is 23 feet x 38 feet for $5,000.
If you intend to bid at the auction, you will need to present a cashier’s check or certified funds in the amount of $10,000 made payable to Pardo & Gainsburg, LLP Trust on the day of the auction. All winning bids will be required to pay the balance of 10% of the total contract price on the day of the auction in the form of a personal or business check. A buyer’s premium of 10% will be added to the final bid price and included in the total contract price. Make sure you take the buyer’s premium into account when bidding. The balance of the purchase price is due at closing on or before Monday, October 22, 2007.
Additional Information
Pet Policy: Two pets allowed, not to weigh in excess of 50 pounds each
Rental Policy: Minimum of 6 months
Maintenance Fee Includes: Building insurance, water, sewer, garbage, 24-hour manned security, basic cable TV and use of the common areas and amenities
Contact me if you’d like me to register you or if you have any questions regarding the auction. I will be attending the auction and look forward to seeing many of you there. Good luck!
Quantum on the Bay – 1 & 3 Bedroom Condos Available on High Floors with Great Views
A contract holder of two condos at Quantum on the Bay contacted me a few weeks ago to let me know that she would like to find a replacement buyer for each unit.
The first is 3 bedroom/3 bath with 1,620 square feet of interior space and two large terraces. If you refer to the Quantum on the Bay website, it is the R floor plan in the north tower. The unit is located on the 34th floor and will have unobstructed views of Biscayne Bay. She is asking $627,000, or $387 per square foot, for this 3 bedroom condo. I think this is a fantastic price for a 3 bedroom condo on such a high floor.
The second unit she has under contract is a 1 bedroom + den/1.5 bath condo with 935 square feet of interior space and a large terrace. It is the P floor plan. This condo is on the 37th floor and will offer water views off the terrace. She is asking $372,000, or $398, per square foot, for this 1 bedroom condo.
Each condo at Quantum on the Bay comes with one parking space. An additional parking space will cost $35,000.
Contact me if you or someone you know is interested in either or both of these units.
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
How Bad Can Things Get for the Miami Condo Market?
An article was released today on Bloomberg.com that exposed the seriousness of the overdevelopment problems that we have in the Miami condo market and the ensuing repercussions that will affect the Miami economy. The article was entitled “Miami Condo Glut Pushes Florida’s Economy to Brink of Recession”. To readers of my blog, however, the news presented in the article was nothing new.
As I’ve mentioned before, the bulk of the problems will stretch from Brickell to as far north as the Miami Arts District. That is where most of the development has occurred in the past three years. There will also be problems in Sunny Isles Beach along the beach. There is a ton of development there as well. Condos in Coral Gables have held strong and have actually gone up in some cases. South Beach condos have also held strong. The condos in older buildings throughout Miami will hold strong because speculative money doesn’t reside in those buildings. It resides in the buildings that were recently completed and those that are currently under construction.
Maintenance fees and ensuing special assessments are also an issue with new buildings. Jade recently had a special assessment to cover the maintenance money lost from the 17 foreclosure units in the building. Jade currently has the most foreclosures of all condo buildings in Miami. Imagine buying into a new building where only 50 percent of the units have closed. Could you imagine the type of special assessment that will get billed to those who have closed? The 17 units at Jade only represent a little over 5% of the overall units in the building. Imagine 50 percent! The upkeep of the building will be the first to go in these newer buildings.
I get a number of people who call me every week who are waiting on the sidelines for that spectacular deal. They know that I’ll find it. I have made it my job to find people the best deals possible at that particular time. That will always be my job and my ultimate goal. If anyone knows the seriousness of the condo market right now it is me. There are others in the industry who know it, but won’t acknowledge it.
That being said, those of you waiting to buy a condo 40 cents on the dollar, it won’t happen. For you at least. You may be able to attend a few auctions where you might be able to buy something at a significant discount but, for the most part, the bulk of the great deals will happen so fast that you’ll never hear about them. Let me be the first to spill the beans and let you all know how this will all go down in 10 steps:
A significant percentage of contract holders will walk away from their deposit money.
The developers will be left holding the short end of the stick and receive huge amounts of pressure from the banks in possession of the construction loans.
Developers will fold.
Developers will then pass the short end of the stick to the banks holding the construction loans.
Banks in possession of these construction loans will be in big trouble. They will then in turn look to sell these loans to vulture capital funds that are hovering the skies of Miami.
Vulture capital funds will buy these construction loans at a significant discount. 50 cents on the dollar or more is not out of the question due to the conditions that reside in the Miami condo market.
Vulture capital funds will then list these units with Realtors, such as I, who have a long list of people waiting on the sidelines to buy at a discount. They will then resell these units at a 15-30 percent discount from what they were originally purchased in 2004 and 2005.
Buyers, from all over the world, will buy condos in Miami at a 15-30 percent discount. Those who contact me will be at the top of this list to receive these significant discounts.
Vulture capital funds will pocket the 20-35 percent spread. Vulture capital funds have been hovering the skies of Miami for years. Their time has come. Patience is a virtue.
Miami condo prices will stabilize at the newly reduced level and business will go on as usual.
Condo overdevelopment throughout the country has become a problem. However, Miami is the epicenter of this problem. As the Bloomberg article states, banks were the first to lend money to Miami developers and the first to pull out. I’ve been contacted by at least five large vulture capital funds in the past month looking to profit from the enormous opportunities that will become available in the Miami condo market. All eyes are on Miami. A dark cloud hangs over Miami but opportunities will abound. As the saying goes, “This too shall pass”. But will you be prepared to take advantage of these opportunities?
Opera Tower Closings to Begin in September
In a previous post I stated that I heard closings at Opera Tower would begin in July. However, I confirmed today that this was inaccurate. Closings will begin in September for condo units on the first 21 floors of Opera Tower. I was told that closings on the remaining floors would begin in October. Opera Tower sent this letter to contract holders at the beginning of June. It provides important information regarding closings.
It will be interesting to see what happens there. Opera Tower has a total of 635 condo units made up of studios, one and two bedroom condos. That’s a lot of units coming onto the market given the current condition of the Miami real estate market. I think closings at Opera Tower will help reveal the true nature of the market at this time. It will act as a prologue to what will happen at other developments scheduled to begin closings in the next 12 months. It will be important to keep an eye on closings, or lack of closings, that occur at Opera Tower.
My prediction is that the developer of Opera Tower will get back a lot of units. It is a shame that the developer charges 13 percent of the sales price to contract holders who want to resell their contract. It would be in the best interest of the developer to help these contract holders, who are primarily investors, get their unit into the hands of an end-user. Many of these investors are looking to break-even or accept a small loss. With a 13 percent resale fee, however, it makes this nearly impossible. This will come back to bite the developer of Opera Tower in the ass. As of now, the best deal through the developer for an east facing unit is one priced at $509,000. It is on the 21st floor. That comes out to $485 per square foot. I think within six months we’ll see 2 bedrooms at Opera Tower priced below $400,000.
Midtown 2 was a recent large development to begin closings. Closings there began about a month and a half ago. Last week the South Florida Business Journal reported that 17 contract holders at Midtown 2, who want out of their contracts, filed a class action lawsuit against the developer. The attorney representing the plaintiffs is also planning a class action lawsuit representing contract holders of Midtown 4. This lawsuit could spell trouble for all developers if the judge rules in favor of the plaintiffs.
Quantum on the Bay – 2 Bedroom + Den/2.5 Bath
I was contacted last Friday by a lady who is looking to sell her 2 bedroom + den/2.5 bath in the north tower of the development known as Quantum on the Bay. She got in at original pricing and is looking to sell her unit prior to closing. The condo unit that she has under contract is the L floor plan which, in my opinion, is the best floor plan in the entire north tower. It offers unobstructed views of Biscayne Bay and overlooks the swimming pool. It is a large corner unit with 1,460 square feet of interior space and a 237 square foot wrap-around terrace.
The Quantum on the Bay website is a bit confusing when you view the floor plans. For some reason it decided to have the building site plan point east rather than north. Biscayne Bay would be located where the word “residence” is in the picture below.
The purchase price of the unit in question was $512,000, or $351 per square foot. She is looking to sell it for $575,000, or $394 per square foot, and do a simultaneous closing on the unit. You won’t find a better deal in the developer’s resale program since the developer requires that all units are priced at a minimum of 16 percent above the contract holder’s purchase price. In this instance, the price would need to be set at a minimum of $593,920. This is a great opportunity for someone looking to live at Quantum on the Bay after closing.
If you, or anyone you know has an interest in this condo at Quantum on the Bay, let me know and I will put you in touch with the contract holder.
