Sunday Afternoon Bicycle Ride Through Brickell and Downtown Miami
Last week, I purchased a new road bike. My hope was to not only get a good cardio workout while cycling but also to get some great pictures of Miami and South Beach condos while doing so. My goal today was to get some shots of the condo developments in Brickell and Downtown that were either recently completed or will be completed within the next year. Unfortunately, it was a very cloudy day as you will see below.
Closings at Plaza on Brickell will likely begin in January. This development will add 1,000 new units to the Brickell condo market.
Closings at 1060 Brickell should occur around the same time. 1060 Brickell will add 582 condo units.
Closings at Axis will likely begin around the middle of 2008. Axis will add 718 units.
Closings for 500 Brickell are scheduled for the beginning of 2008. This development will add 633 units.
Infinity at Brickell will likely be completed towards the middle of 2008. Infinity will bring 459 condo units to the market.
I forgot to get a shot of Brickell on the River South. That development will add 322 units. I also didn’t get one today for Latitude on the River but I’ve displayed pictures of that building in the past. Closings at Latitude started about two months ago. It has 455 condo units.
Asia is located on Brickell Key. It is the only development under construction there. It will add 123 condo units when it is completed in the first half of 2008.
Closings at 50 Biscayne began about a week and a half ago. I walked in the lobby last week and it is gorgeous. I didn’t have my camcorder with me at the time, however. I will try to get a video and picture tour of the building within the next week. 50 Biscayne has 529 condo units.
Closings at Loft Downtown 2 are scheduled to begin this month. In fact, they may have already begun. It will add 496 units.
Everglades on the Bay (now known as Vizcayne) likely won’t be completed until the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009. It will add 866 condo units to the Miami real estate market.
I’ve been told that closings at Marina Blue are scheduled to begin November 1, 2007. I don’t see that happening so soon but maybe I’m wrong. My guess would be sometime in December or January. Marina Blue will add 516 units.
900 Biscayne Bay will likely be completed in the first half of 2008. It will add 516 units as well.
Closings for units at Ten Museum Park began about three months ago. Closings are still underway. It has 200 units. Marquis probably won’t be completed until the end of 2008 to beginning of 2009. It will bring 306 units to the Miami condo market.
In conclusion, there might be a tiny bit of an inventory problem in Miami (that was me being sarcastic). I also didn’t include Icon Brickell and Epic Miami which will be completed in 2009. Icon Brickell will add 1,816 units while Epic will add 966 units. The condo developments in the Arts District will also add a little over 2,000 new units to the market within the next six months.
900 Biscayne Bay – Sneak Peak at a Luxury Miami Preconstruction Condo Building – Pictures & Video
Last week I was afforded the opportunity to walk through an almost finished townhouse unit at 900 Biscayne Bay. It was priced, from the developer, at around $945,000 (I don’t remember the exact figure but it is very close, if not exact). The pictures and the short video clip that I shot of the unit are found below.
First, let me provide a little background.
Last weekend an out-of-state couple contacted me to find them a luxury second-home condo. They wanted a great deal but didn’t want to skimp on quality or views. They wanted to buy into a luxury condo building that was either brand new or one that was relatively new or recently remodeled that offered luxury finishes, amenities and views.
In one short day, most of which was scheduled on a 1-2 hour notice, I was able to show them a unit at Jade Brickell, Emerald at Brickell, Imperial at Brickell and The Palace. I was also able to get them a guided tour of Ten Museum Park and Latitude on the River. We also visited the 900 Biscayne Bay sales office just before closing hours. They had a strong interest in a townhouse unit at 900 Biscayne Bay and wanted a guided tour of the actual unit. One was arranged for the following afternoon.
To say the least, they were offered a thorough look at the Miami condo real estate market on their first day looking at Miami condos. They got to see more luxury condo buildings than most people living in Miami have seen in their lives. They were due to leave back home early Wednesday morning. The aforementioned showings all occurred last Monday from 12:30pm to 6:30pm.
We picked everything back up early Tuesday morning with a visit to Carbonell in Brickell Key. They loved everything about the building and the unit that we saw, but the water views off the 2 bedroom were good but not fantastic.
I then took them to Marina Blue where they fell in love with the unobstructed water views and great deals that could be obtained there.
They still had an appetite, however, to take the tour of the townhouse unit that they were interested in at 900 Biscayne Bay. Our next stop was the 900 Biscayne Bay sales office so we could don our hard hats and goggles and trek to the unit.
Fortunately, I brought along my trusty digital camcorder along to take pictures and shoot as much video as I could in our short stay at the 900 Biscayne Bay townhouse that we visited. The following pictures and video clip are from a townhouse unit on the 7th and 8th floors at 900 Biscayne Bay.
Again, this is a townhouse unit at 900 Biscayne Bay. Not all units at 900 Biscayne Bay will offer such bi-level floor plans and high ceilings. In fact, most of them do not.
The townhouse that we saw was a 2 bedroom/2den/3 bath unit. I felt that the bedrooms were pretty small. They should have removed one of the dens and added that space to the master bedroom. The finishes, however, were just as impressive as they were in the sales center. 900 Biscayne Bay should be completed towards the beginning of 2008.
Ten Museum Park – Picture & Video Review of an 08 Line & the Pool Deck at Ten Museum Park
Wednesday afternoon I previewed an 08 line at Ten Museum Park for someone in Dallas, Texas looking to fly into Miami next week to acquire this property. I took a bunch of pictures and some video of the unit as well as the pool deck for him. I wanted to share this with everyone as there is much interest in Ten Museum Park.
Again, the pictures of the unit are of an 08 line. The 08 line at Ten Museum Park has 898 square feet of interior space and a 143 square foot balcony. The 05 line at Ten Museum Park has 886 square feet of interior space and a 143 square foot balcony. They are both 1 bedroom/1.5 bath units. The views from the 05 line look into the building just north of Ten Museum Park called Marquis, which will be completed in 2008.
Flip through the picture slideshow below to view 19 pictures of this 08 line unit.
From the 08 line at Ten Museum Park you will see 900 Biscayne Bay directly in front of you. As you will see, you will also have views of the American Airlines Arena, street views of Biscayne Boulevard and water views of Biscayne Bay. You can also see skyline views of South Beach in the distance. The kitchens have stainless steel appliances by Sub-Zero and Bosche as well as stainless steel countertops. There is a glass-enclosed shower with body jets and rain shower in the master bath as well as a bidet and toilet. The bathroom fixtures in the master bath are from Duravit and Dornbracht. Every floor plan at Ten Museum Park has these kitchen appliances and master bath fixtures.
As you will see, the plunge pools at Ten Museum Park are functioning but the landscaping around the outer-edge of the swimming pool deck has not yet been planted. The deck furniture and cabanas are scheduled to arrive this weekend. The rain shower area has not yet been fully completed as well. Overall, everything reminded me of something out of ancient Greece. I love it!
The green land that you see across the street from Ten Museum Park is the park formerly known as Bicentennial Park. It is now known as Museum Park and has the Miami Art Museum and the Miami Science Museum collaborating to make it into one of the best parks in the nation.
By the way, there is a big price difference in an 08 line and 05 line at Ten Museum Park. This 08 line is priced at $380,000. I can get someone an 05 line on a low floor for $315K. Residences start on the 10th floor at Ten Museum Park. The water views from an 08 line are much better, however. You can even see the pool deck from the 08 line off the balcony as you will see in the pictures and video.There are a total of 6 units per floor at Ten Museum Park. The one bedroom units are staggered along the building with the large 2 bedroom units that have 20-foot lofted ceilings. The large 2 bedrooms with 1,906 to 1,949 square feet are my favorite layouts at Ten Museum Park. I can get you one of those for $850,000. The original contract holder paid $905,000 in January of 2004. It is an 02 line with 1,949 square feet.
This was probably my fourth or fifth visit to Ten Museum Park since closings began. During one visit I saw at least 6-7 different floor plans. I think I’ve pretty much seen all of the floor plans that Ten Museum Park has to offer including the Penthouse units with the rooftop plunge pools. The views from the rooftop are simply amazing.
I can’t wait until the building is 100 percent complete. It will be an amazing building! I guess there is a lot of interest in this building because when I went up today there was a group of 9 others that wanted to see other units. (Damn! I was hoping to corner the market at Ten Museum Park…LOL). I guess the word is out.
I hope the pictures and video has satisfied everyone’s curiosity. I’ve been told that the gym, which is one of the biggest that I’ve seen in a condominium building, will be completed in about 2-3 months. The Clinique La Prairie spa should be done in about 6-8 months as far as I’ve heard. The restaurant space below Ten Museum Park is still vacant and awaiting an outstanding restaurant to fill the space. There are also condo offices available for lease at the base of Ten Museum Park. From what I’ve been told, lawyers and doctors, including plastic surgeons, have been jumping at the chance to have an office with an unobstructed view of Biscayne Bay and South Beach.
Within the next couple of days I will reveal photos and video footage of a townhouse unit at 900 Biscayne Bay, so stay tuned to the best source for Miami condo news.
Okay, okay….I’ll give you a sneak peak:
Advice to Miami Condo Buyers
This is a follow-up post to one I wrote a few weeks ago entitled “Advice to Miami Condo Sellers“. That post has become one of my most widely read posts.
I’ve always been more of a buyer’s agent than a seller’s agent. It’s been that way ever since I started in this business. I’ve never been much of a salesman though. In fact, I initially didn’t even want to become a real estate agent because I always analogized the phrase “real estate agent” to “sales person”. The latter always made me cringe. Thoughts of “selling somebody” or “making a sale happen” didn’t favor well with me.
I finally realized, however, that people will always have a need to buy housing and finding buyers the best deals is a niche within itself. I figured that with my financial background I could provide a unique perspective and a more in-depth analysis of the market than most agents. This blog is a natural extension of that mindset years ago.
Nowadays, it seems like everyone is looking for a deal and the right opportunity to buy in Miami. The million dollar question that I get from the people who contact me each day is “When will be the best time to buy a condo in Miami?”.
The answer to that question depends on your objectives and knowledge of the Miami condo market. If you’re an investor “looking to buy a condo in a good neighborhood of Miami at a significant discount” then the answer to that question is as vague as your objective – “Nobody knows!”. That’s like saying that you want to buy the best stock at the bottom of a bear market. Good luck!
Some of the people who contact me have only been to Miami once or twice in their life. Some haven’t ever visited Miami, but have read about Miami and have seen the gorgeous palm trees and majestic waters in movies. For those of you, the opportunity to buy a Miami condo at the “best” time won’t ever come. You need to have knowledge of what you want before you can ascertain the best time to buy it. A knowledgeable Realtor can’t even point you in the right direction without first knowing which direction that might be.
Having an objective like wanting to buy a two bedroom condo at Ten Museum Park with a direct bay view on a high floor at a 20 percent discount of 2004 prices is much better. An opportunity like that may or may not present itself but at least you know what you want and a local Realtor will be much better equipped to help you find it.
Keep in mind that the “market bottom” for the Miami condo market might not necessarily be the best time to buy for people with such a pinpoint objective as the one above. These people might miss out on better opportunities that will have passed them by. For example, take the 2 bedroom condo going up for auction at Villa Regina that I mentioned in yesterday’s post. That condo may very well sell for the best price per square foot of any condo at Villa Regina from here on out. Someone looking to buy a condo at Villa Regina, but is waiting for the condo market to bottom in Miami, might miss out on a fantastic opportunity. It may or may not end up being the best deal at Villa Regina but keep in mind that only one person will buy the bottom. Wouldn’t you be happy though knowing that you bought at a 20 percent or 30 percent discount or whatever it may be?
My advice for those buyers who will be end-users is the same. Know what you want and the price point that will make you happy. Opportunities to buy condos in Miami at a discount with built-in equity are already present. Foreclosures, auctions and short sales all offer these opportunities. Being happy with the condo in which you will live should be the primary concern for end-users, not price. Having a cushion to weather the storm that lies ahead is an added bonus.
There is no doubt that condo prices will correct themselves from the highs that we experienced in 2005 and beginning of 2006. In my opinion, they already have. I feel that we’re already back at 2004 prices. Every week I get a number of calls and emails from people who bought preconstruction condos as resales in 2005 and beginning of 2006. They want to know if there is any chance to break-even if they close on their preconstruction condo contracts and sell at current market prices. The answer is overwhelmingly “NO”. The current market price is usually at or slightly below the amount of their deposit money, which the majority of the time is 20 percent. This tells me that we are already at least 20 percent off the highs.
The inventory problems of the Miami condo market is old news. Demand dried up over a year ago as a result of this news. The real estate market, however, is not as liquid and as efficient as the financial markets. Buyers have already processed the news about the Miami condo market. Sellers have begun to process the news but can’t simply hit the best bid to get themselves out. Those selling existing condos can, however, lower their prices.
The fate of the preconstruction condo market is different though. The news came out over a year ago but we’re all waiting for the condos to close to see where they will get priced. Nobody knows! It’s like trading has been halted, due to news, and we’re all standing around waiting for the market to reopen.
As a side-note to investors and second home buyers unfamiliar with Brickell, if you’re looking to buy a newly constructed condo in a bayfront building within the next 7 months then you won’t find any. Of the five developments scheduled for completion within the next 7 months in Brickell, none of them are bayfront buildings. Only two, Latitude on the River (which has begun closings) and Brickell on the River South, are waterfront buildings. They both, as their name implies, reside on the Miami River. Of the four developments scheduled for completion in 2009, only two, Icon Brickell and Epic, are bayfront developments. After those are completed only one bayfront parcel will be left in Brickell. Villa Magna was planned for development on that parcel but the project was recently canceled and the fate of that land is still up in the air.
As for the four buildings being developed in the Downtown Miami neighborhood known as Park West, none are bayfront but they might as well be. Ten Museum Park, Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne and Marquis each reside directly behind Biscayne Boulevard and what was formerly known as Bicentennial Park, both of which won’t obstruct views of the bay as long as they are owned by the city of Miami.
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
Pictorial & Video Review of The Fantastic Four in Miami
Today was a beautiful sunny day in Miami so I decided to revisit my favorite skyline-gazing spot at the southwestern tip of Watson Island, along with my trusty digital camcorder. It is the perfect location to view the progression of what I have dubbed The Fantastic Four, made up of, from left to right, Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne Bay, Ten Museum Park and Marquis. It may appear as though there are five developments but the smallest of the buildings is located further off of Biscayne Boulevard to the west. Wikipedia refers to these four developments as the Biscayne Wall, but to me it is far shy of a wall when you compare it to fully built-out skylines in cities such as New York City and Chicago.
The name The Fantastic Four came to mind though as each of these four developments are fantastic ultra-luxury high-rise buildings revitalizing the Downtown Miami neighborhood now known as Park West. Park West was recently developed to be Miami’s equivalent to Manhattan’s Park Avenue. In years to come it will become known as Miami’s luxury neighborhood. It is located directly west of I-395, also known as the MacArthur Causeway, which leads straight into South Beach.Museum Park, formerly known as Bicentennial Park, which is the green piece of land directly east of the The Fantastic Four, will be redeveloped by the Miami Art Museum and the Miami Museum of Science and Planetarium to be transformed into a world-renowned park. It may not seem like a lot of land from the picture above but it is actually comprised of 30-plus acres. The luxury condo buildings in Park West are walking distance to the American Airlines Arena, the newly constructed Carnival Center for the Performing Arts and Bayside Marketplace.
In future months, as closing dates approach, there will be many opportunities to buy into these four buildings at discounted prices. Condo units in these buildings, as well as the thousands of other units coming to market in Miami over the next 18 months, were heavily purchased by investors. Their plan was to flip each condo unit for a profit prior to closing, but demand dried and prices headed south. Many will end up walking away from 20 percent deposits and instead write it off on their taxes. Closings at Ten Museum Park have already begun and Marina Blue should begin theirs towards the beginning of August.
The following pictorial review will give you a closer look at each of these buildings as they appear today:
Note: Watson Island offers the best views of both the Miami and Miami Beach skylines. With the exception of Parrot Jungle and the Miami Children’s Museum, it is a wonder how this land has remained vacant for so long. Flagstone Property Group is supposed to develop a mix-used project known as Island Gardens, with hotel, restaurant and retail space as well as a a “50-slip mega-yacht marina that would accommodate yachts of up 450-feet long”. I haven’t heard of any progress in over twelve months and it doesn’t appear as though anyone has broken ground on the land that I stood on today.
