I’ve heard, saw and ascertained much on the street within the past couple of weeks regarding the Miami condo market but haven’t had the time to write an in-depth post about each item. I figured that something short and sweet is better than nothing at all. So here it is:
As many of you have already heard, a construction crane fell this afternoon at around 1:45pm at Paramount Bay. 2 people were reported dead and 5 reported injured. My warmest regards goes out to all with family or friends involved in the accident. The crane fell through the roof of the home that belonged to Mary in the 1998 film Something About Mary. Though many of you have called and emailed, no, Mary was not harmed during the accident.
This one goes into the “rumor” category. I’ve heard that BAP Development is on the brink of bankruptcy. BAP Development is the developer behind Onyx on the Bay. Closings for condos at Onyx on the Bay began on July 31, 2007. My February condo closing rate post revealed that Onyx on the Bay was able to close only 45.38 percent of its units at the time. Another rumor that I’ve heard, but haven’t been able to confirm, is that Continental, the property management company, walked out on Onyx on the Bay because the developer was unable to pay them any longer. Anyone hear anything regarding this?
Another rumor here. A loyal reader revealed to me today, via email, that he heard today that Boca Developers “went belly up” . Boca Developers is the development company behind Peninsula I, Peninsula II and Biscayne Landing. He also stated that he was able to confirm that Boca Developers “cut loose” their sales staff for Peninsula II and Biscayne Landing. Has anyone else out there caught wind of this?
Closings have begun at Continuum North Tower in South Beach. I’ll get my chance to tour the newest addition to South of Fifth this Thursday morning with some out-of-state clients. I will try to share what I see that day with readers of this blog at a later date.
There’s going to be some great additions to Midtown Miami. This one I heard from a Midtown representative last week. The two parcels of land between the Midtown shops and the two condo buildings just east of it, Midtown 2 and 4, will be transformed into a very nice park within the next 3 months. However, there are plans for an IMAX Theater to go into the northern parcel of land within the next 2-3 years. Additionally, Midblock will house a Sushi Samba and Segafredo’s relatively soon. I was pretty pessimistic about Midtown about six months ago but I think this is going to be the place to be for 20-somethings in about 3 years. It may very well become what it was promised to be: a city within a city.
Someone recently left a comment saying that, after 3 appraisals, they were unable to have their condo at 1060 Brickell appraise for the amount on their purchase contract. Any other contract holders at 1060 Brickell having this problem?
Asking prices of condos in the “mortgage fraud” buildings in Brickell have come down BIG since November 2007. The last time I did a Brickell Condo Index was November 2007. Last Tuesday, I pulled some new data. I haven’t had the time to reveal a full-blown monthly Brickell Condo Index, but I will reveal what the asking prices for the following buildings with prevalent mortgage fraud have fallen since November 2007:
The Club at Brickell Bay – The average asking price per square foot has fallen 22.86% since November 2007.
Vue at Brickell – Average asking price per square foot has fallen 19.60% since November 2007.
Jade at Brickell Bay – The average asking price per square foot has fallen 16.24% since November 2007.
Those are some large reductions in asking prices since November 2007. Only time will tell how much further the “fallen angels” will fall.
The Sail on Brickell Penthouse 2 Bedroom/2 Bath Foreclosure – $299,900
I urge everyone to read my post in September. It will provide much insight as to how prevalent the mortgage fraud was back then in Miami. I actually reread my post and I was like “Damn! That was a great post”. Back then I didn’t have many readers. My readership was made up of just around one hundred people.
Currently, there are two 2 bedroom/2 bath short-sales at The Sail on Brickell listed for $599,000. Both short-sales are the condos that I discussed in my July and September posts that had recently closed. This makes it apparent to me that the buyers never had the intention to hold these condos but rather defraud our U.S. banking system. Our banking system in this country has enough problems. I’m very upset about my findings. Very!
Here are the two condos that were sold at The Sail on Brickell in July and September:
Unit 2504 was listed at $670,000 and sold for $670,000
Unit 2204 was listed at $670,000 and sold for $670,000
Both were sold by the same broker. <<<<<<<<<<<<<
Where is the mortgage fraud task force when you need them?
Emerald at Brickell 2 Bedroom Tower Suite Short-Sale – $499,000
This 2 bedroom/2 bath tower suite short-sale at Emerald at Brickell slipped through my radar since the middle of February because the listing agent failed to include the correct zip code with the listing. This short-sale condo is listed at $499,000, or about $395 per square foot. It has direct views of Biscayne Bay and Key Biscayne.
The next best priced tower suite condo at Emerald at Brickell is listed at $699,00. It is slightly bigger but is still listed at over $140 per square foot more. If the correct zip code (and correct spelling of the development) had been included, I suspect that this condo would have been under contract by now. It fell off my radar and I’m guessing that it fell off the radar of many other Realtors and buyers.
Vue at Brickell – Are Prices Finally Bottoming?
On May 24, 2007, I wrote a blog post entitled “Vue at Brickell – Overpriced or Insanely Overpriced?“. At the time, the average list price of condos available at Vue at Brickell was over $550 per square foot. As many of you now know, and as the blog post explains, the inflated list prices were a direct result of the rampant mortgage fraud that occurred in the building. Since that time, as more and more people became aware of the situation and as a large number of foreclosures in the building hit the market, prices at Vue at Brickell have come down like a ton of bricks.
There are now indications, however, that prices at Vue at Brickell may be close to reaching the bottom. Buyers are finally stepping in. Since the last week of January, there have been 7 condos at Vue at Brickell that went pending. With list prices of $190,000-$199,900 for 1 bedroom condos and $220,000-$249,900 for 2 bedroom condos, it makes sense that buyers are now beginning to accept the risks associated with buying a condo in a building that has a high number of foreclosures. It will be interesting to see the sales prices of these condos at Vue at Brickell once they close. It’ll give us a better indication as to the level of motivation of some of these banks.
Below you’ll find the best deals at Vue at Brickell:
1 Bedrooms
Unit 2111 – short-sale – $162,500
Unit 1710 – short-sale – $162,500
Unit 1211 – short-sale – $162,500
Unit 1413 – short-sale – $162,500
Unit 2307 – foreclosure – $205,000
2 Bedrooms
Unit 1303 – short-sale – $229,900
Unit 1505 – short-sale – $250,000
Unit 1304 – short-sale – $279,900
3 Bedrooms
Unit 3006 – short-sale – $357,000
Unit 3606 – foreclosure – $379,900
The mortgages of three of the four short-sale one bedroom units listed for $162,500 are held with the same lender. This may be an opportunity for an investor to grab all three for a bargain-basement price. There are currently only 8 condos available for rent at Vue at Brickell. Within the past 12 months, the lowest that a one bedroom has ever rented was $1,300 per month. The lowest that a 2 bedroom rented was $1,550 while 3 bedrooms condos bottomed at $2,500 per month.
Ten Museum Park Revisited
Ten Museum Park was one of the first major condo buildings in Miami to hit the market within the past year. Closings began at Ten Museum Park, almost nine months ago, on June 14, 2007. I thought this would be a great opportunity to revisit Ten Museum Park to see what type of activity its seen since then.
As of today, according to public records, Ten Museum Park has been able to close exactly 75 percent, or 150, of its 200 total units since closings began in June 2007. It’s been a long and winding road to reach 150 closed units. I wonder how long it will take to close out the last 50.
Let’s take a look at the active listings for sale at Ten Museum Park. There are currently 63 active listings in the building at this time.
1 Bedroom units (868 square feet)
05 line (9 listings) – $355,000-$475,000
08 line (10 listings) – $358,000-$560,000
2 Bedroom units (1,239 square feet)
06 line (9 listings) – $458,000-$680,000
07 line (6 listings) – $440,000-$690,000
2 Bedroom units (1,949 square feet)
02 line (8 listings) – $785,000-$1,495,000
03 line (7 listings) – $798,000-$995,000
2 Bedroom units (1,906 square feet)
01 line (6 listings) – $895,000-$1,350,000
04 line (6 listings) – $895,000-$1,385,000
4 Bedroom units (4,500 square feet)
Penthouses (2 listings) – $3,200,000-$3,400,000
There hasn’t been much resale activity since Ten Museum Park began closings. There’s been a total of 3 closed sales in the MLS since that time.
Unit 1105 sold for $295,000 on January 3, 2008
Unit 3408 sold for $350,000 on January 25, 2008
Penthouse 4203, with 4,000 square feet, sold for $2,200,000 on January 31, 2008
Activity seems to have picked up a little, however, as there are currently 4 pending sales at Ten Museum Park.
Unit 1107 was listed for $455,000 and went pending on January 30, 2008
Unit 3706 was listed for $475,000 and went pending on February 2, 2008
Unit 2704 was listed for $748,900 and went pending on February 7, 2008
Unit 1901 was listed for $975,000 and went pending on February 2, 2008
I haven’t been to Ten Museum Park within the past three weeks but I have heard that the fitness center is finally under way. I’ve also heard that work has begun on the Clinique La Prairie Spa and that it should be completed in about six months. I think everyone would agree that these amenities are long overdue. I know of 3 buyers who have been patiently waiting for this work to get done. I’m sure there are many other buyers patiently waiting as well.
Coming Soon: Sushi Siam at Plaza on Brickell
Last week I noticed the above sign, “Coming Soon: Sushi Siam,” as I drove by Plaza on Brickell. This is great news not only for Plaza on Brickell but also the entire neighborhood of Brickell.
Sushi Siam is a very well known sushi restaurant located on Lincoln Road in South Beach. I find it very interesting that more and more establishments are deciding to expand their operation from South Beach into Brickell. A few years ago, Novecento, a restaurant and bar, made the expansion move and recently we saw Segafredo Cafe, a restaurant and lounge, make the move as well. It shows me that these establishments are quite confident that Brickell already has enough year-round residents to justify such an expansion. (I just wish Lime Fresh Mexican Grill would make the jump as well. I heard a while back that they committed to opening their third restaurant at Midtown Miami though.)
Eventually the commercial spaces found on the ground level of the new condo buildings in Brickell, such as Plaza on Brickell, will be a natural extension of Mary Brickell Village, with new retail stores and restaurants. That’s when we’ll really start to see the foot traffic in Brickell.
By the way, I was digging through some old pictures that I took in July 2005. Remember what Plaza on Brickell consisted of back then?
Blue Condominium – 1 Bedroom/1.5 Bath Foreclosure – $229,000
I was stunned when I saw this foreclosure listing at Blue Condominium. $229,000 for a 1 bedroom condo at Blue Condominium!!! In 2006, this unit would have likely been priced for around $380,000. The MLS listing shows it to be a 1 bedroom/2 bath condo but I don’t think that information is accurate, unless the owner added a second full bathroom. It is most likely a 1 bedroom/1.5 bath condo. The listing also makes no mention of it being a foreclosure but I looked it up and it is owned by Deutsche Bank.
This is a great buy for someone who is looking to purchase a 1 bedroom condo in a high-end waterfront condo building in Miami. The location may not be that great (the northern end of Edgewater Miami) but that is already reflected in the price, in my opinion. If this condo sells for around $200,000 then we’re now talking break-even cash flow with 20 percent down. I haven’t heard the term “break-even cash flow” for quite some time. Is that where prices are headed? I think we all know the answer.
Take a look at the Blue Condominium rental listings to get an idea of the type of monthly rent that this condo would bring. Feel free to export the listings to Microsoft Excel by clicking the “Export” link at the top of the grid.
By the way, for those of you not local to Miami, the highway in the picture above takes you right into Miami Beach.
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – February 2008
Below, you will find the Miami-Dade County condo inventory and months of supply figures for February 2008. The first box to the left reveals the total number of condos that are currently available for sale on the MLS throughout Miami-Dade County. The second box discloses the total number of closed sales that occurred in the month of January 2008. The third and fourth boxes show the months and years of condo supply in Miami-Dade County. As you can see, the figures are also subdivided into various price ranges to reveal which part of the condo market has been affected the most.
Since the January 2008 update, the overall condo supply in Miami-Dade County has increased about 10.3 percent. Most the increase, however, was due to a 25.1 percent increase in the $0-$249,999 price range, where about 41 percent of the overall condo inventory resides. The $250,000-$499,999 and $500,000-$999,999 price ranges had slight increases of 4.5 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. The $1,000,000-$2,499,999 price range had a big drop of 25.6 percent and the $2,500,000-$4,999,999 price range had an even bigger drop of 39.8 percent in its condo supply.
As many would expect, the lower part of the market is experiencing the most problems, mainly due to it now being much more difficult to obtain financing for those looking to buy in this segment of the market. Those in the market to buy a condo for over $1M, oftentimes, can do so without any financing whatsoever.
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami (not other areas of Dade County such as Miami Beach, Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach, etc.):
Miami has continued its upward climb in condo supply this month with a 24.3 percent increase since last month. Again, we see that the lower and upper parts of the market have performed quite dissimilarly. The condo supply in the $0-$249,999 price range has increased 20.6 percent while the $250,000-$499,999 price range has gone up a shocking 62 percent. On the flip-side, the condo supply in the $500,000-$999,999 price range has gone down 26.7 percent and the $1,000,000-$2,499,999 has dropped almost 50 percent.
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami Beach:
Overall, Miami Beach experienced a 19 percent drop in its condo supply levels since last month. I was a bit surprised but I probably shouldn’t be. Miami Beach did not come close to experiencing the level of development that we recently saw in Miami. Foreign and out-of-state buyers are also much more likely to buy a condo in Miami Beach than they are somewhere in Miami. I think we will continue to see a widening gap between the Miami and Miami Beach condo supply figures in the months ahead.
Miami Condo Market Highlighted by the Major Media
Kevin Tomlinson, of the South Beach Condo Blog, hit a home run yesterday with his post entitled “All You Ever Wanted to Know About Miami & Miami Beach Real Estate: A Video Round-up”. The “Today Show” was in sunny Florida yesterday morning to report about the Miami and Miami Beach real estate market along with Barbara Corcoran, the queen of real estate. Barbara’s words are highly regarded in the real estate industry, so be sure to watch the video to the end to hear what she has to say.
Miami has evolved over the years. It was once regarded by many as a flashy and dangerous place to visit. It still remains flashy but it is no longer considered dangerous. The following video portrays the new Miami:
Prices have come down 25-30% since late 2005 to early 2006. Recently, some foreclosures have been purchased at a 50 percent discount. I receive phone calls every day from investors and end-users who want to buy at 50 cents on the dollar. If they want to buy at a 50 percent discount from today’s prices then forget about it. That would amount to buying at 25 cents on the dollar from the height of the market. There are now opportunities to buy at 50 cents on the dollar from 2005/2006 prices.
