Advice to Miami Condo Buyers
This is a follow-up post to one I wrote a few weeks ago entitled “Advice to Miami Condo Sellers“. That post has become one of my most widely read posts.
I’ve always been more of a buyer’s agent than a seller’s agent. It’s been that way ever since I started in this business. I’ve never been much of a salesman though. In fact, I initially didn’t even want to become a real estate agent because I always analogized the phrase “real estate agent” to “sales person”. The latter always made me cringe. Thoughts of “selling somebody” or “making a sale happen” didn’t favor well with me.
I finally realized, however, that people will always have a need to buy housing and finding buyers the best deals is a niche within itself. I figured that with my financial background I could provide a unique perspective and a more in-depth analysis of the market than most agents. This blog is a natural extension of that mindset years ago.
Nowadays, it seems like everyone is looking for a deal and the right opportunity to buy in Miami. The million dollar question that I get from the people who contact me each day is “When will be the best time to buy a condo in Miami?”.
The answer to that question depends on your objectives and knowledge of the Miami condo market. If you’re an investor “looking to buy a condo in a good neighborhood of Miami at a significant discount” then the answer to that question is as vague as your objective – “Nobody knows!”. That’s like saying that you want to buy the best stock at the bottom of a bear market. Good luck!
Some of the people who contact me have only been to Miami once or twice in their life. Some haven’t ever visited Miami, but have read about Miami and have seen the gorgeous palm trees and majestic waters in movies. For those of you, the opportunity to buy a Miami condo at the “best” time won’t ever come. You need to have knowledge of what you want before you can ascertain the best time to buy it. A knowledgeable Realtor can’t even point you in the right direction without first knowing which direction that might be.
Having an objective like wanting to buy a two bedroom condo at Ten Museum Park with a direct bay view on a high floor at a 20 percent discount of 2004 prices is much better. An opportunity like that may or may not present itself but at least you know what you want and a local Realtor will be much better equipped to help you find it.
Keep in mind that the “market bottom” for the Miami condo market might not necessarily be the best time to buy for people with such a pinpoint objective as the one above. These people might miss out on better opportunities that will have passed them by. For example, take the 2 bedroom condo going up for auction at Villa Regina that I mentioned in yesterday’s post. That condo may very well sell for the best price per square foot of any condo at Villa Regina from here on out. Someone looking to buy a condo at Villa Regina, but is waiting for the condo market to bottom in Miami, might miss out on a fantastic opportunity. It may or may not end up being the best deal at Villa Regina but keep in mind that only one person will buy the bottom. Wouldn’t you be happy though knowing that you bought at a 20 percent or 30 percent discount or whatever it may be?
My advice for those buyers who will be end-users is the same. Know what you want and the price point that will make you happy. Opportunities to buy condos in Miami at a discount with built-in equity are already present. Foreclosures, auctions and short sales all offer these opportunities. Being happy with the condo in which you will live should be the primary concern for end-users, not price. Having a cushion to weather the storm that lies ahead is an added bonus.
There is no doubt that condo prices will correct themselves from the highs that we experienced in 2005 and beginning of 2006. In my opinion, they already have. I feel that we’re already back at 2004 prices. Every week I get a number of calls and emails from people who bought preconstruction condos as resales in 2005 and beginning of 2006. They want to know if there is any chance to break-even if they close on their preconstruction condo contracts and sell at current market prices. The answer is overwhelmingly “NO”. The current market price is usually at or slightly below the amount of their deposit money, which the majority of the time is 20 percent. This tells me that we are already at least 20 percent off the highs.
The inventory problems of the Miami condo market is old news. Demand dried up over a year ago as a result of this news. The real estate market, however, is not as liquid and as efficient as the financial markets. Buyers have already processed the news about the Miami condo market. Sellers have begun to process the news but can’t simply hit the best bid to get themselves out. Those selling existing condos can, however, lower their prices.
The fate of the preconstruction condo market is different though. The news came out over a year ago but we’re all waiting for the condos to close to see where they will get priced. Nobody knows! It’s like trading has been halted, due to news, and we’re all standing around waiting for the market to reopen.
As a side-note to investors and second home buyers unfamiliar with Brickell, if you’re looking to buy a newly constructed condo in a bayfront building within the next 7 months then you won’t find any. Of the five developments scheduled for completion within the next 7 months in Brickell, none of them are bayfront buildings. Only two, Latitude on the River (which has begun closings) and Brickell on the River South, are waterfront buildings. They both, as their name implies, reside on the Miami River. Of the four developments scheduled for completion in 2009, only two, Icon Brickell and Epic, are bayfront developments. After those are completed only one bayfront parcel will be left in Brickell. Villa Magna was planned for development on that parcel but the project was recently canceled and the fate of that land is still up in the air.
As for the four buildings being developed in the Downtown Miami neighborhood known as Park West, none are bayfront but they might as well be. Ten Museum Park, Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne and Marquis each reside directly behind Biscayne Boulevard and what was formerly known as Bicentennial Park, both of which won’t obstruct views of the bay as long as they are owned by the city of Miami.
Credit Crunch Impact on the Miami Condo Market
Many of you have probably already heard about what happened on Wall Street on Friday. For those of you who didn’t, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its third-biggest drop of 2007. Much of the drop occurred in the final two hours of trading. The Blue Chip index dropped 281.42 points. Much of the sell-off was attributed to the credit squeeze that Wall Street is feeling as a direct result of lousy lending practices in the housing market that occurred in recent years.
There were 3 major stories that unraveled throughout the day on Wall Street. The primary story in the morning was that of Bear Stearns. The S&P downgraded Bear Stearns’ rating from stable to negative. That sent shares of Bear Stearns plummeting. It recovered by mid-afternoon but once again sold off as a Bear Stearns conference call began. The CFO of Bear Stearns, Sam Molinaro, was quoted as saying “It’s (speaking of the recent credit crunch) been as bad as I’ve seen it in 22 years. The fixed-income market environment we’ve seen in the last eight weeks has been pretty extreme”. Shares of BSC once again sold off.
The second story to emerge was the reduction of Alt-A loans by major lenders. For those of you who don’t know what Alt-A is, it is a category of lending that resides between prime and subprime lending. Wells Fargo announced on Friday that they would curtail Alt-A lending. Other large banks followed suit. Wachovia announced that it would discontinue Alt-A loans altogether.
A large portion of mortgage loans are categorized as Alt-A. The suspension of Alt-A loans by major lenders means that a bulk of the demand for housing could become nonexistent. A hedge fund representative in New York told me on Friday that subprime and Alt-A represented 40% of the loans in 2006. A local, reputable mortgage broker feels that this number could be as high as 60% in South Florida. The following chart from Credit Suisse illustrates the growth in Alt-A and subprime lending from 2002 to 2006. In 2002, Alt-A represented 5% of loan originations while sub-prime represented 6%. By 2006, Alt-A and subprime loans each represented 20% of the overall loan originations.
The third major story to hit PR newswires was that Wells Fargo would increase their prime 30-year Jumbo rate to 8 percent. Other major lenders followed suit. Last week, a 30-year Jumbo rate could be acquired for 6.875%. That’s a huge increase. Potential home buyers could be priced out of the market.
So why am I reporting this you may wonder. The impact on the Miami condo market is inevitable. Many of the speculators who acquired preconstruction condos 2-3 years ago fall into the Alt-A category. Even if these speculators plan to close on their preconstruction condo units, they may not be afforded that opportunity. Major banks have begun to shut off the valve to extend credit to even the most credit-worthy. If this happens then the fall-out on Miami condos could be grim at best. These practices, however, will return full circle to the banks who loaned money to developers. If banks shut off Alt-A loans then investors will be unable to close on condo units which will mean that developers will get back a larger percentage of the total units in the building. Developers will then be unable to make payments on the loan and they’ll eventually go bust. Banks who shut off the valves will push the pain onto the banks who made these loans. I know that Corus Bank, a publicly traded company, was a major lender to condo developers in Miami. (You’re welcome for that information).
The good news is that smaller banks will fill in the gap to lend money to Alt-A borrowers. The bad news is that interest rates quoted to home buyers will be higher. The higher rates will price out potential condo contracts holders who plan to close or will lead to higher foreclosure rates down the road. If I were closing on a condo within the next 60 days then I would definitely contact a reputable mortgage broker ASAP to have them lock you in at a good rate. Who knows where rates will be in upcoming weeks. I can definitely point you in the right direction if anyone needs guidance in this matter.
Many feel that a rate cut by the Fed is inevitable. We should see one very soon.
Follow-up: A late story emerged on Friday, after the markets closed, that Option One Mortgage Corporation is ceasing all loans “secured by condos in Florida”. Option One is a top-10 non-prime lender and subsidiary of H&R Block. I don’t even want to think about what will happen to the Miami condo market if other major lenders follow their lead. I’ll leave it at that.
Miami Condo Auction – Platinum Condominium – 20 Units Up for Auction in September
I was notified tonight that twenty condo units at Platinum Condominium will be auctioned off on September 20, 2007. Eight of those units will be auctioned “absolute”. This means that the condo(s) will be sold to the highest bidder. There are no minimums and no reserves.
This is major news! The 20 units up for auction at Platinum Condominium represent 16.8% of the overall units in the building. The are a total of 119 units in the building with 7 units per floor. I think 20%-30% default rates in other developments is not out of the question.
A few months ago, after Platinum Condominium began closings, I did a pictorial and video review of the building. You can view it by clicking on the following link: pictorial and video review of Platinum Condominium. Any information that you seek regarding this development will be found there. If for some chance, you have a question that isn’t answered there, then feel free to contact me.
For you Miami condo vultures, this might be a great opportunity to own a bulk of units at a really good price. If they can be acquired at a good price, you may even be able to rent them out with positive cash flow until the neighborhood turns around and sell them for a nice profit.
Those looking to buy a single condo at an auction at a good price, this may be your opportunity. I am very knowledgeable in the various floor plans at Platinum Condominium. My services are available to you to act as your representative at the auction. I will be attending the auction regardless. I will act in your best interests. If I walk out of that auction without one of my clients acquiring one condo then you can be assured that the prices offered were too high. I am completely comfortable walking away from that auction without one sale being made. The people who know me well know that I am not a tough or pushy salesman.
Contact me for more information regarding the Platinum Condominium auction.
- Unit 301 – 3 bedroom/3 bath
- Unit 501 – 3 bedroom/3 bath
- Unit 1001 – 2 bedroom + den/2 bath
- Unit 1101 – 2 bedroom + den/2 bath
- Unit 1201 – 2 bedroom + den/2 bath
- Unit 1404 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath
- Unit 1602 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath
- Unit 1802 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath
- Unit 2002 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath
- Unit 2102 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath
- Unit 1705 – 2 bedroom/2 bath
- Unit 1905 – 2 bedroom/2 bath
- Unit 707 – 2 bedroom + den/2 bath
- Unit 1607 – 2 bedroom + den/2 bath
- Unit 1907 – 2 bedroom + den/2 bath
- Unit 2007 – 2 bedroom + den/2 bath
- Unit 2107 – 2 bedroom + den/2 bath
- Loft 103 – 2 bedroom/2 bath
- Loft 107 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath
Miami Condo Index – Brickell Key – July 2007
This is the second installment of the Brickell Key Condo Index. The data was collected on July 27, 2007. Overall, list prices declined about .82% in the past month for condos listed in Brickell Key. The average price per square foot in June for condos listed was $519.97 versus an average price per square foot of $515.71 for the month of July. The weighted-average price square foot in June was $513.19 versus $510.83 this month. Each building in the index, except Brickell Key One and Two Tequesta, had a decrease in their average price per square foot over the past month.
The average price per square foot of condo units sold in the past six months was $442.69. This is compared to an average price per square foot of $445.59 for condos sold over the preceding six months in June. Prices went down about .65% in Brickell Key in one month’s time. The weighted-average price per square foot for condos sold in the past six months in Brickell Key was $439.02. This compares to a weight-adjusted average of $441.05 in June.
- Brickell Key I – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $378.28
- Brickell Key II – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $409.79
- Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $498.08
- Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $436.67
- Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $415.01
- Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $465.90
- One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $444.10
- St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $466.15
- Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $480.92
- Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $431.99
The sold-to-listed ratio, expressed as a percentage, of each building is found below. Overall, the average Brickell Key condo this month is listed 16.39% above what closed sales have dictated. The weighted-average reveals that the typical Brickell Key condo is listed 20.63% above average closed sales. Both of these numbers are down from last month.
- Brickell Key I – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | 6.83%
- Brickell Key II – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | 18.07%
- Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | 18.30%
- Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | 11.03%
- Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | 16.25%
- Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | 13.92%
- One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | 9.07%
- St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | 13.82%
- Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | 19.05%
- Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | 37.61%
There were a total of 10 closed sales in Brickell Key since the June numbers were released. This is one more transaction that occurred in one month’s time than in the 18 buildings that are represented in the Brickell Condo Index. The 10 buildings that compose the Brickell Key Condo Index have a total of 2,816 condos versus the 5,349 condo units represented in the Brickell Condo Index.
I feel that there is going to be far more stability in Brickell Key than in Brickell. Clients that I have been working with are much more comfortable looking at properties in Brickell Key. Prices are more reasonable, the neighborhood offers a sense of exclusivity and every building in Brickell Key is waterfront.
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
Miami Condo Index – Brickell – July 2007
You may have noticed that some of the June numbers have changed. This is because I originally took out the closed sales that were obviously due to mortgage fraud. I recently went back and included those sales because I wanted to present things just as they were. However, this made listings appear to be priced more accurately, which they aren’t. To condo owners, and to some Realtors not in the know, these fraudulent transactions have made their listings appear justified. They need to realize that these transactions are just that, fraudulent, and very inaccurate.
The average price per square foot of condo units listed in the 18 Brickell buildings covered in my index dropped $7.44 since last month. A drop in the price of condos listed in Brickell over the last month was highly expected. I actually thought that prices would have come down even more though. These 18 buildings in Brickell had an average price per square foot of $528.84 this month versus $536.28 in June. The weighted average price per square foot was $540.17 for July versus $547.06 in June.
The most shocking thing that the July Brickell condo index revealed was the number of transactions that occurred in one month’s time. There are a total of 5,348 condo units represented in the 18 buildings that comprise my Brickell condo index. Take a guess at how many units have closed from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007.
Had enough time to come up with a guesstimate? Nine. That’s the number of units that sold during that time period throughout the 18 buildings that make up the Brickell condo index. Everyone knows the market is slow but I don’t think anyone could have guessed to what extent. Nine! I still can’t get that out of my head. There are a total of 875 units available on the market right now in those 18 buildings. This equates to 16.36 percent of the total units. This number is actually much higher in many of the newer buildings. Many of the older buildings have 20 or less listings in the entire building. The instability lies in the newer buildings; the buildings that were heavily funded by speculators.
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the past six months in Brickell actually went up slightly. But keep in mind that there were nine transactions in all 18 buildings. Most Realtors would focus on the fact that prices are actually going up. However, I will tell you, first hand, that these numbers are attributed to fraudulent transactions. The price per square foot went from $471.76, in June, to $473.95, in July. Most of this was due to a transaction that appears to be fraudulent at The Sail on Brickell.
The reason why I feel that this transaction is fraudulent is for a number of reasons. One, the unit was sold at the highest price per square foot in the building with concrete floors, two, the broker is a discount broker who charges 4 percent per transaction, three, in every transaction he seems to find the buyer and already holds the listing, and four, he finds the buyer within four days. I did a search by the broker’s email to see what other transactions have occurred. I’m not going to name names but let’s just say that this broker has at least six transactions where this has occurred. The same exact thing. He finds a buyer to acquire a condo at The Sail on Brickell within four days at the highest price possible. Let me tell you, firsthand as a Realtor, that it is hard enough to find a buyer in this market to buy something at the best price available. How is this guy finding a buyer at the highest price available? Within 4 days? Like I said, I’m not going to name names but something fishy is going on there. If someone, like the Miami Herald, wants to investigate this thoroughly and name me as the source, then so be it, but I’m not divulging names. I don’t want to have a hit-man after me. Hopefully I’m wrong about what has occurred in The Sail at Brickell, but I doubt it.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
Average price per square foot of units sold in the past 6 months:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $335.12
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $397.69
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $417.82
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $570.51
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $763.51
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $319.56
- Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $668.23
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $375.53
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $453.66
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | $369.08
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $605.15
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $471.39
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $436.21
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $636.74
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $498.17
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $352.77
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $543.37
Sold-to-Listed Ratio expressed as a percentage:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 0.77%
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | 17.23%
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 17.19%
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | -3.02%
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | 16.68%
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 22.35%
- Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 24.50%
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | 9.87%
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | 3.72%
- Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | 32.46%
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 13.51%
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 4.51%
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | 14.86%
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 2.70%
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 1.01%
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 8.68%
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 30.64%
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | 1.53%
Opera Tower Closings to Begin in September
In a previous post I stated that I heard closings at Opera Tower would begin in July. However, I confirmed today that this was inaccurate. Closings will begin in September for condo units on the first 21 floors of Opera Tower. I was told that closings on the remaining floors would begin in October. Opera Tower sent this letter to contract holders at the beginning of June. It provides important information regarding closings.
It will be interesting to see what happens there. Opera Tower has a total of 635 condo units made up of studios, one and two bedroom condos. That’s a lot of units coming onto the market given the current condition of the Miami real estate market. I think closings at Opera Tower will help reveal the true nature of the market at this time. It will act as a prologue to what will happen at other developments scheduled to begin closings in the next 12 months. It will be important to keep an eye on closings, or lack of closings, that occur at Opera Tower.
My prediction is that the developer of Opera Tower will get back a lot of units. It is a shame that the developer charges 13 percent of the sales price to contract holders who want to resell their contract. It would be in the best interest of the developer to help these contract holders, who are primarily investors, get their unit into the hands of an end-user. Many of these investors are looking to break-even or accept a small loss. With a 13 percent resale fee, however, it makes this nearly impossible. This will come back to bite the developer of Opera Tower in the ass. As of now, the best deal through the developer for an east facing unit is one priced at $509,000. It is on the 21st floor. That comes out to $485 per square foot. I think within six months we’ll see 2 bedrooms at Opera Tower priced below $400,000.
Midtown 2 was a recent large development to begin closings. Closings there began about a month and a half ago. Last week the South Florida Business Journal reported that 17 contract holders at Midtown 2, who want out of their contracts, filed a class action lawsuit against the developer. The attorney representing the plaintiffs is also planning a class action lawsuit representing contract holders of Midtown 4. This lawsuit could spell trouble for all developers if the judge rules in favor of the plaintiffs.
Where Will Prices Be 12-24 Months From Now in Brickell?
Most people would agree that as of right now Brickell and Brickell Key are the luxury neighborhoods of Miami for condominiums. This may change in the future as new luxury neighborhoods have begun to emerge, but as of right now Brickell and Brickell Key hold this title.
It is no secret that Brickell has a large number of condo units coming to market over the next 24 months. Some of these waterfront and non-waterfront preconstruction buildings in Brickell sold for prices well over $400, $500, and even $600 per square foot when sales were launched during the peak of the real estate market in 2005. Were these condo units sold too high? Where should prices be trading given that the supply far exceeds the demand over the next 24 months in Brickell? Where will prices end up for the new condo units that are coming to market over the next couple of years?
Let me try to dissect these questions. Most people would now answer yes to the first question. At the time, however, interest rates were low, prices were soaring and the market was fueled by speculators looking to profit from the buying frenzy. Two years later, the market is in a completely different state. Speculative investors are nowhere to be found, interest rates continue to climb and thousands of new condo units are set to close in the next 24 months. Earlier this week, ABCNews.com published an article entitled, “Real Estate Fool’s Gold”, which highlighted the overdevelopment problem that Miami is facing. Many investors have hired attorneys to find loopholes in their preconstruction contracts to find a way out, and in effect prevent them from losing money.
Prices will continue to go down until an equilibrium of supply and demand is reached. The question still remains though of “how far down will prices go?”. The Brickell condo index for June provided insight as to how inflated prices have become in Brickell. Some of this was due to the rampant mortgage fraud occurring throughout Brickell, but it was mainly fueled by speculators looking to flip their preconstruction condo contracts for a nice profit.
The South Beach condo index, published yesterday, revealed that prices there are almost one and a half times that of Brickell. However, prices in South Beach have far more stability due to the supply and demand relationship being much closer to equilibrium. An overdevelopment problem doesn’t exist in South Beach like we have in Brickell. This is largely due to the Historic Preservation Committee in South Beach keeping developers in check with stringent development guidelines. Demand to own South Beach property is also much higher. Less supply/more demand equals more stability and therefore less problematic pricing.
I feel that the buildings currently under construction in Brickell, set to be completed in the next 12-24 months, will have problems maintaining the price levels that units were sold for at the peak of the real estate bubble. There will be many opportunities in the months to come to buy at discounted prices in these new developments. This in turn will drive prices down throughout the overall neighborhood of Brickell. I feel that more pricing stability can be found in the buildings that have been around for over five years such as the ones found at the southern end of Brickell Avenue. These include such names as The Palace, Imperial at Brickell, Bristol Tower, Atlantis on Brickell, Santa Maria and Villa Regina.
Next week, I will reveal the second installment of the Brickell condo index. I have a feeling that prices have come down quite a bit in buildings such as Vue at Brickell, Club at Brickell Bay and Jade where much of the mortgage fraud occurred. As a result, each building now has quite a few foreclosures listings. This Miami real estate blog will continue to provide the unbiased insight that you seek.
Latitude on the River in Brickell
The picture above shows Latitude on the River and Latitude One. Latitude on the River is a residential condominium building comprised of 427 units on 44 floors while Latitude One is a condo office building made up of 217,000 square feet spread across 22 floors. Latitude on the River is located along the Miami River directly west of Neo Vertika at 615 SW 2 Avenue.
Many local Miamians have expressed an interest to me in acquiring a condo at Latitude on the River because the pricing is attractive and because the neighborhood has come a long way since sales initially began. It is difficult not to take notice of Latitude on the River while driving down the southern end of I-95 as it towers over all surrounding buildings. It reminds me of an NFL lineman with broad shoulders and a thick upper body.
There are a total of five listings in the MLS right now, two of which are from the developer. The other three listings appeared 2-3 weeks ago. Closings will begin towards the end of August.
I visited with a sales agent representing the developer of Latitude on the River a few months ago with a client of mine to see what was available. The prices were all over the place but there seemed to be a few well priced units. For example, you could get a one bedroom for around $270,000 on a relatively high floor with a view of Biscayne Bay. My client decided to wait a while though until closings began as we both felt that better opportunities would become available at that time. The five listings currently on the MLS, however, are far from opportunistic as many are well above $400, and even, $500 per square foot. I feel that prices will settle around $300-$375 per square foot as more people realize the true condition of the real estate market at this time.
At the beginning of 2005, when I initially visited the sales center of Latitude on the River, I was pretty impressed with what I saw, given the price point. The amenities of the building as well as the vision for that neighborhood is what really grabbed me. However, there were a few aspects of the neighborhood that were difficult to look past, and are worth mentioning. For one, the large electrical plant across the river directly north of Latitude on the River was one eyesore. Condo units facing south that clear the Latitude One condo offices should hold a higher value than those facing north. Those units will have a nice view of Biscayne Bay.
The second eyesore is the Pleasure Emporium III that you’ll see as you make your way into the entrance of Latitude on the River on SW 6 Street. It is literally a half a block west of Latitude on the River and is something you will see daily if you live there.
The neighborhood does have its appeals, however. The shops and restaurants at Mary Brickell Village that are within walking distance are a definite plus, as it provides convenience. Latitude on the River, as the name insinuates, is also directly on the Miami River and offers a riverwalk that will eventually connect as far east to the river promenade now in place at the entrance of One Miami. It will be great once the planned restaurants along the Miami River are complete and the planned water taxi system goes into effect. Latitude on the River is also conveniently located near I-95, making it a cinch to get to South Beach, Miami International Airport, Coral Gables, Coconut Grove and other areas of interest throughout the Miamiland area.
I will keep everyone posted when good deals become available at Latitude on the River once more units are listed in the MLS.
