Prime Blue Grille and Il Gabbiano Are Just What Downtown Miami Needs

Miami needs high-end restaurants, grocers, hair salons, pharmacies, book stores, cafes and department stores. These services exist today in Downtown Miami but they likely wouldn’t be considered “high-end” by the standards of most who inhabit the newly constructed $350-plus per square foot condos that surround the eastern exterior of Downtown Miami.

This is something that will one day become a realization. However, restaurants and other establishments aren’t going to jump to acquire the empty commercial spaces, which abound at the bottom of these newly built condo high-rises, until they feel that there are enough year-round residents to justify such a commitment.

Case in point is One Miami. This is a condo development that began delivering its condos at the very end of 2005. Closings began at a time when the real estate market was questionably still going strong. However, it wasn’t until the fourth quarter of 2007 that two fine restaurants, Prime Blue Grille and Il Gabbiano, decided to open their doors to patrons in the commercial spaces found at the bottom of One Miami. Two years! Summary of the story is that it will take at least another two years for the commercial spaces found at the bottom of the new condo developments to open their doors to patrons. Once they do, however, Miami will slowly start to become a true urban city.

By the way, Prime Blue Grille is an excellent restaurant! I highly recommend it if you’re looking for an enjoyable fine-dining experience. Prime Blue Grille is a steak and seafood restaurant. I’ve heard nothing but great things about Il Gabbiano, an Italian restaurant, but I’ve yet to dine there myself.

Miami Condo Construction Update

Super Bowl Sunday afternoon, I decided to walk around Brickell, Downtown Miami and Park West to provide those who reside outside of Miami a construction update for various condo developments. Below, you’ll find various pictures that I took during my walk:

500 Brickell looks to be about 2-3 months away from being finished.

Epic Miami looks to be almost topped off.

Icon Brickell appears to have topped off one of its towers and close to topping off the other two.

Met 2 will be comprised of two towers. One will be a 47-story high-rise comprised of Class A office space. The second will be a 42-story signature hotel called Marquis, a JW Marriott Collection Hotel.

Asia is located in Brickell Key. Probably another 2-3 months until this luxury high-rise is ready to begin closings.

Met 1 is the white tower located in the center with the Wachovia building hovering directly behind it. Met 1 is complete but I’ve yet to hear for when the first closing is scheduled. Has anyone heard anything?

Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne Bay, Ten Museum Park and Marquis. Marina Blue is just about done and should begin closings very soon. Gotta love the architecture and glass on Marina Blue! 900 Biscayne Bay will probably begin closings sometime within the next 2-3 months. Although closings at Ten Museum Park began in the Summer of 2007, the amenities and spa are far from being 100 percent complete. Hopefully by July we can file it away as being completely finished. Marquis still has quite a ways to go before being topped off.

Click on the following link to view a slideshow of other pictures that I took during my short walk in Miami:

Assessing the Neighborhoods and Condo Buildings of Miami

A great comment was made this morning asking me for my take on the various neighborhoods in Miami. Excellent topic and one that I’m sure my non-local readers would appreciate.

The map above is a portion of a larger map that was created by the Miami Downtown Development Authority. It is a great resource for people to see where various condo buildings throughout Miami are located. I realize that it is very difficult to view the above image. I do, however, have a PDF of the map on my file sharing page. Click on the file called “Miami Developments Map Aug07”. You may also want to view the file called “Miami Developments Report Aug07”. There you will find profile pages for several condo developments in Miami.

The map does not encompass all of Miami, however. It basically covers just those neighborhoods in Miami that had the most condo development during our recent boom. It also doesn’t show every condo development on the map. I’m not sure how far back it goes but my guess is that it only includes developments built since 2004.

The Neighborhoods of Miami

1. Brickell – Brickell is also known as the financial district of Miami. A lot of large international banks are located in Brickell. Also, the majority of Miami’s condos are located in Brickell. When you see a picture of the Miami skyline you are most likely looking at the various condo buildings in Brickell.This is considered by most to be an affluent neighborhood. There are some very high-end condo buildings located in this neighborhood such as Four Seasons Residences and Santa Maria.However, there is a large supply of condos that has recently begun to hit the market in Brickell. Buyers will definitely have good opportunities and a lot of options within the next couple of years. You really need to research these buildings considerably if you intend to buy. There are some condo developments in Brickell that I feel are overpriced and will likely come down over the next 2-3 years. There are others that I feel are appealing to end-users. I also wanted to note that there is only one waterfront lot left in Brickell.
2. Brickell Key – Many would say that Brickell Key is viewed as an exclusive neighborhood with its gated entry into the neighborhood and its paved brick roads. There isn’t much new inventory in Brickell Key that will hit the market within the next year. In fact, only 123 new condos will hit the market once Asia closes its units. Other than the small piece of land behind the Mandarin Oriental Hotel, there is no room left to build in Brickell Key which means that there probably won’t be any new supply there for many years. Many might argue that the large supply of condos in Brickell will have an effect on prices of condos located in Brickell Key. However, some would tell you that they only want to live in Brickell Key.
3. Downtown Miami – In my opinion, Downtown Miami needs more infrastructure before it can become a great neighborhood. It’ll take some time but will eventually become a great place to live. My opinion is that until this becomes a realization current prices will be difficult to justify. Long-term though, I think Downtown Miami will be a very happening place to live.
4. Park West – Park West is a small area of Miami that is located directly south of the MacArthur Causeway. It is currently comprised of four buildings. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I believe this neighborhood has the greatest long-term potential for various reasons that I’ve mentioned in other posts. In the short-run, however, I feel that prices won’t go up until grocery stores, pharmacies, coffee shops, etc. become available in Park West. I’ve heard from various people that Gardener’s Market is negotiating a lease to open a store at the base of 900 Biscayne. Park West needs more of this.
5. Arts District and Edgewater – The Arts District is a fairly large area. I typically regard it as beginning at the Carnival Center for the Performing Arts and ending on NE 36 Street, although everyone has their own definition. In my opinion, this will be the last neighborhood to turn around. There is still a lot of room to build on waterfront lots because there are a lot of run-down buildings that could easily be knocked down. It does have Margaret Pace Park though which is a fantastic park. I think opportunities for investors to buy in bulk will become available in some of the new buildings in the Arts District. I currently know of one.

I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts and input.

Rumor Mill on the Streets of Manhattan

I arrived at La Guardia Airport in New York City on Tuesday afternoon. The good news was that the weather was fantastic. It was in the high 60s, which was unprecedented in New York City for the month of January. The weather was just what I needed after arriving in Chicago last week on the coldest day of the Winter season (I think it was something like 15 degrees below zero with wind chill). Brrrrr!!! In fact, the first thing I did when arriving in Chicago was to go to Target and buy some long underwear. It was that freakin’ cold! I used to live in downtown Chicago for 4 years so I should know cold, but that day was damn cold! Maybe living in Miami for so long has made my blood thin out a bit or something.

My arrival in New York City, however, soon turned sour after learning that my luggage was lost by American Airlines. Regardless, I checked into my hotel and tried to make the best of my trip. My luggage did finally arrive at 3am that night (the next morning).

Last week, I wrote a post mentioning that I would be in New York City from January 8-11 for the Real Estate Connect NYC 2008 Conference. I was contacted by one hedge fund analyst and two investment groups that wanted to meet me while I stayed in New York City. They each had an interest in the Miami condo market.

Today, I attended the first day of the Real Estate Connect Conference and listened to a few industry leaders speak about the market. I also picked up some great information in conversations with people in the hallways as well as the hedge fund analyst that I met with later in the evening.

Okay…enough with the boring stuff. Let’s get to the goods! The following is the rumor mill that was revealed to me throughout the day. This is just what I’ve heard. I am in no way saying that the rumors are true (although these rumors came from accredited sources).

• WCI will declare bankruptcy within the next two weeks. Shares of WCI, the developer of One Bal Harbour, dropped 52.98% today on worries that WCI will declare bankruptcy. Standard & Poor affirmed WCI’s junk rating status and provided a negative outlook for the company. (Can you say “Pink Sheet”?) WCI was provided an extension until January 16, 2008. That’s a very short extension. My source disclosed to me tonight that the bank is probably finally realizing that it is in their best interest to pursue bankruptcy proceedings rather than delay the inevitable. The mathematics makes sense for the bank to do so. Most banks loaned about 65 percent of the total construction costs. As of right now, according to public records, WCI has closed 50.3 percent of the condo units at One Bal Harbour. If I were the bank holding onto the construction loan for One Bal Harbour, I would foreclose on this development immediately. The lender could at least offset their other losses with the gains they may realize with the sale of the defaulted units at One Bal Harbour. They know that it’s a strong development…I know that it’s a strong development. Until the investment funds step in, however, there’s still a lot of risk.
• Marina Blue closings have been pushed back 2 months and possibly even longer. I heard this rumor when I was in Miami on Monday but I didn’t accept it until tonight. I’ve heard that Marina Blue has no clue when closings will begin. Somebody please tell me that I’m wrong! I’ve heard this one from multiple sources though.
• Opera Tower is delaying closings another month. I’ve heard this one from multiple sources as well. What the hell is going on with this development? It keeps delaying its closings. Weren’t closings supposed to realistically begin around September? I was recently misquoted about Opera Tower in the papers. I was quoted as saying something along the lines that Opera Tower will have a 50 percent default rate. I actually said that Opera Tower will have at least a 50 percent default rate. Just my opinion though. Also, just my opinion is that this development is doomed. There’s a large lawsuit against the developer of Opera Tower. You may think I’m crazy but I think in six months my 50 percent default rate for Opera Tower will be considered an overzealous prediction.
• Here’s the big one. Countrywide Financial Corporation is going to declare bankruptcy within the next three weeks. Countrywide has lost about 44 percent of its value within the past 5 days. Rumors around Wall Street are that this turkey is just about roasted and ready to be eaten. We should see this one fall soon…and it’ll make a huge thud on the Street when it does.
• This one isn’t so much a rumor. Quantum on the Bay began closings and the development isn’t even close to being completed. (From what I’ve heard) TCO was granted in order to avoid a lawsuit pertaining to how long the development took to be completed. My guess (and only my guess) is that some money (maybe a lot) was transferred between the developer and city to get the TCO done to avoid lawsuits against the developer.

A Year in Review for the Miami Condo Investments Blog

As a year-end post, I decided to go through all of the posts that I’ve written about the Miami condo market in 2007 to highlight my five favorite posts. This blog was born on May 12, 2007, so it’s really a 7 1/2-month review. It’s amazing that I’ve been able to find the time to write 180 posts since that time. The following five posts weren’t necessarily the most popular, although a few were, but rather just my own personal favorites. These are the blog posts that I felt were both insightful and well written. Is there a Miami Blogging Pulitzer Prize in existence yet?

1. Will History Repeat Itself in Miami? – October 28, 2007
2. Advice to Miami Condo Sellers – July 26, 2007
3. Miami Condo Auction a Big Disappointment – September 21, 2007
4. An Analytical Analysis of Analyzing Condominiums – June 15, 2007
5. Sunday Afternoon Bicycle Ride Through Brickell and Downtown Miami – October 14, 2007

The following was the runner-up:

1. Crisis Looming in the Arts District of Miami? – May 29, 2007

I’d love to hear which Miami condo post was your favorite of 2007.

Miami Condo Developer to Miami Condo Vulture?

Earlier today, the South Florida Business Journal published an article entitled “Related Considering Fund to Buy-up Condos“. It reveals that Miami condo developer, Jorge Perez, is considering to create a fund to buy condos throughout Miami at a discount. The article states that a source disclosed that the funding would come from Latin America.

Much of the The Related Group’s condo inventory is located in Brickell and Downtown Miami. Jorge Perez, CEO of The Related Group, recently stated on NBC6 that his only regret is not buying more land around his first condo development, One Miami. While many condo developers in Miami are now regretting ever getting into the mix, Jorge Perez regrets not buying and developing more land.

As the article points out, I think there will be a [huge] conflict of interest if Jorge Perez’s fund acts to buy defaulted condos that arise at Related developments throughout Brickell and Downtown Miami. I don’t think the banks that loaned the money to The Related Group will find the situation too appealing. I, for one, would feel a bit suckered. Additionally, buyers who do close on condos in Related developments might feel a bit suckered as well if they later hear that the developer himself acted as a principal to buy defaulted condos at much lower prices.

Marina Blue – A Repeat Performance for Hyperion Development or a New Chance to Shine?

A very interesting article regarding the condo development called Marina Blue was published yesterday in the International Herald Tribune. The article focuses on Hyperion Development, the developer of Marina Blue, and its damaged reputation as a result of the large “delays and unhappy buyers” at its first development called Blue.

Some residents at the first tower, named Blue, are threatening to sue the company for not delivering on amenities while other owners at the 330-unit complex are trying to sell their condos for less than they paid.

Blue’s problems have hurt Hyperion’s reputation enough that consultants say that some buyers who put down deposits at the company’s second tower, the 516-unit Marina Blue, may decide not to close. Other Marina Blue buyers have sued to get their deposits back.

The problems raise questions about the ability of Hyperion to repay a $110 million construction loan as well as its ability to develop future projects in the Miami market.

It will be interesting to see if Hyperion Development has learned its lesson and delivers all amenities and common areas completely done at Marina Blue. I know from reading the comments that are left here, that this is a HUGE concern of contract holders of condos at Marina Blue and those who have an interest in purchasing a condo there. Sales agents at the Marina Blue sales office have assured me that all common areas will be delivered when closings begin but I won’t believe it until I see it. Closings are scheduled to begin within the next week, so we won’t have to wait long to see if those promises were kept. You can be sure that I’ll be keeping a close eye on how closings go at Marina Blue in the upcoming months.

New Construction Condo Deals in the Arts District, Brickell, Downtown Miami, and South Beach

As closing dates for some of South Florida’s newest condo developments quickly approaches, the motivation from contract holders to sell is becoming increasingly apparent. I’ve been receiving a lot of phone calls and emails from contract holders, within the past couple of weeks, who are looking for me to help them find a replacement buyer.

In some cases the contract holders are willing to accept a loss on their contract price in order to retain a portion of the deposit that was made 3-4 years ago. Below you will find some of the better deals that I’ve come across:

Edgewater

• The 1800 Club
  • Unit 2×04 – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 842 SF – $235,000
  • Unit 3×06 – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 822 SF – $240,000
  • Unit 3×03 – 2 bedroom/2 bath with direct bay view – 1,142 SF – $418,000
  • Unit 4×03 – 2 bedroom/2 bath with direct bay view – 1,142 SF – $428,000

• Quantum on the Bay
  • Unit 15+ floor B (south tower) – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 651 SF – $198,000
  • Unit 35+ floor D (south tower) – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 780 SF – $212,000
  • Unit 40+ floor B (south tower) – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 651 SF – $252,350
  • Unit 40+ floor J (south tower) – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,239 SF – $399,000
  • Unit 40+ floor J (south tower) – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,239 Sf – $409,000 obo
  • Unit 10+ floor L (north tower) – 2 bedroom + den/2.5 bath – 1,460 SF -$550,000

Brickell

• 1060 Brickell
  • LF Loft – 1 bedroom/2 bath – 972 SF – $360,000
  • 30th Floor (K floor plan) -866 SF – $290,000
  • Unit 3×07 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,103 SF – $467,000
• Axis
  • 1x04S (C1 floor plan) – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,076 SF – $340,000
• Plaza on Brickell
  • Unit 2×09 (901 tower) – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 683 SF – $250,000
  • Unit 2×05 (901 tower) – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,185 SF – $339,000

Downtown Miami

• Marina Blue
  • Unit 4×04 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,208 SF – $470,000

South Beach

• Continuum South Beach North Tower
  • Unit ??? – 2 bedroom/2.5 bath NW corner unit – 1,491 SF – $1.86M
  • Unit ??? – 2 bedroom/2.5 bath NW corner unit – 1,922SF – $3.35M
  • Unit ??? – 3 bedroom/3.5 bath NE corner – 3,497 SF (4 balconies) – $4.2M

If you’re a contract holder and you’re motivated to sell then feel free to email me details of your condo and the price that you are willing to accept. Most developer contracts do not allow you to market your unit outside the sales center, so I will post general information here on the blog to see if a buyer emerges.

I’ll match buyers and sellers together. The sales centers are in some cases charging higher than normal sales commissions and transfer fees which make it virtually impossible for contract holders to get their units into the hands of end-users. I’m hoping that this blog will help contract holders to get some of their money back, end-users to find a great deal and developers to have less defaulted units. The way I see it is a win-win-win situation for everyone involved.

By the way, I’ve added a link to this post on my “Deals” page and will be adding to the list above intermittently.

A Picture & Video Tour of 50 Biscayne in Downtown Miami

I had walked into 50 Biscayne a few times prior to today but didn’t have my camcorder on me each time. I wanted to share with everyone what a great job The Related Group of Florida did with this development so I decided to go back to 50 Biscayne today with the objective of sharing some pictures and video of the common areas with my readers.

Today, I was able to get shots of the lobby, swimming pool deck, fitness center and views to the east from the 10th floor pool deck at 50 Biscayne.

Below you will find a picture slideshow of each at 50 Biscayne:

| View | Upload your own

The following will show you the video that I shot today of the lobby, swimming pool deck, fitness center and views to the east at 50 Biscayne:

I took a peak into the two club rooms but each was locked so I wasn’t able to shoot either of those. Both looked very well decorated, however, from the peaks I got through the doors of each. The valet drop-off area was also very impressive, with a cascading water feature along the wall. I forgot to get shots of the business center at 50 Biscayne located on the main floor.

Of the 529 total condos at 50 Biscayne, I’ve been able to find 33 recorded closings. There can be a 2-3 week delay in recording a closing. Hundreds more are likely to follow in the coming months. Closings began October 1, 2007. I’m expecting about an 18.7 percent default rate at 50 Biscayne. That’s just my estimation, however. Take it for what you want. Enjoy!