This is a follow-up post to one I wrote a few weeks ago entitled “Advice to Miami Condo Sellers“. That post has become one of my most widely read posts.
I’ve always been more of a buyer’s agent than a seller’s agent. It’s been that way ever since I started in this business. I’ve never been much of a salesman though. In fact, I initially didn’t even want to become a real estate agent because I always analogized the phrase “real estate agent” to “sales person”. The latter always made me cringe. Thoughts of “selling somebody” or “making a sale happen” didn’t favor well with me.
I finally realized, however, that people will always have a need to buy housing and finding buyers the best deals is a niche within itself. I figured that with my financial background I could provide a unique perspective and a more in-depth analysis of the market than most agents. This blog is a natural extension of that mindset years ago.
Nowadays, it seems like everyone is looking for a deal and the right opportunity to buy in Miami. The million dollar question that I get from the people who contact me each day is “When will be the best time to buy a condo in Miami?”.
The answer to that question depends on your objectives and knowledge of the Miami condo market. If you’re an investor “looking to buy a condo in a good neighborhood of Miami at a significant discount” then the answer to that question is as vague as your objective – “Nobody knows!”. That’s like saying that you want to buy the best stock at the bottom of a bear market. Good luck!
Some of the people who contact me have only been to Miami once or twice in their life. Some haven’t ever visited Miami, but have read about Miami and have seen the gorgeous palm trees and majestic waters in movies. For those of you, the opportunity to buy a Miami condo at the “best” time won’t ever come. You need to have knowledge of what you want before you can ascertain the best time to buy it. A knowledgeable Realtor can’t even point you in the right direction without first knowing which direction that might be.
Having an objective like wanting to buy a two bedroom condo at Ten Museum Park with a direct bay view on a high floor at a 20 percent discount of 2004 prices is much better. An opportunity like that may or may not present itself but at least you know what you want and a local Realtor will be much better equipped to help you find it.
Keep in mind that the “market bottom” for the Miami condo market might not necessarily be the best time to buy for people with such a pinpoint objective as the one above. These people might miss out on better opportunities that will have passed them by. For example, take the 2 bedroom condo going up for auction at Villa Regina that I mentioned in yesterday’s post. That condo may very well sell for the best price per square foot of any condo at Villa Regina from here on out. Someone looking to buy a condo at Villa Regina, but is waiting for the condo market to bottom in Miami, might miss out on a fantastic opportunity. It may or may not end up being the best deal at Villa Regina but keep in mind that only one person will buy the bottom. Wouldn’t you be happy though knowing that you bought at a 20 percent or 30 percent discount or whatever it may be?
My advice for those buyers who will be end-users is the same. Know what you want and the price point that will make you happy. Opportunities to buy condos in Miami at a discount with built-in equity are already present. Foreclosures, auctions and short sales all offer these opportunities. Being happy with the condo in which you will live should be the primary concern for end-users, not price. Having a cushion to weather the storm that lies ahead is an added bonus.
There is no doubt that condo prices will correct themselves from the highs that we experienced in 2005 and beginning of 2006. In my opinion, they already have. I feel that we’re already back at 2004 prices. Every week I get a number of calls and emails from people who bought preconstruction condos as resales in 2005 and beginning of 2006. They want to know if there is any chance to break-even if they close on their preconstruction condo contracts and sell at current market prices. The answer is overwhelmingly “NO”. The current market price is usually at or slightly below the amount of their deposit money, which the majority of the time is 20 percent. This tells me that we are already at least 20 percent off the highs.
The inventory problems of the Miami condo market is old news. Demand dried up over a year ago as a result of this news. The real estate market, however, is not as liquid and as efficient as the financial markets. Buyers have already processed the news about the Miami condo market. Sellers have begun to process the news but can’t simply hit the best bid to get themselves out. Those selling existing condos can, however, lower their prices.
The fate of the preconstruction condo market is different though. The news came out over a year ago but we’re all waiting for the condos to close to see where they will get priced. Nobody knows! It’s like trading has been halted, due to news, and we’re all standing around waiting for the market to reopen.
As a side-note to investors and second home buyers unfamiliar with Brickell, if you’re looking to buy a newly constructed condo in a bayfront building within the next 7 months then you won’t find any. Of the five developments scheduled for completion within the next 7 months in Brickell, none of them are bayfront buildings. Only two, Latitude on the River (which has begun closings) and Brickell on the River South, are waterfront buildings. They both, as their name implies, reside on the Miami River. Of the four developments scheduled for completion in 2009, only two, Icon Brickell and Epic, are bayfront developments. After those are completed only one bayfront parcel will be left in Brickell. Villa Magna was planned for development on that parcel but the project was recently canceled and the fate of that land is still up in the air.
As for the four buildings being developed in the Downtown Miami neighborhood known as Park West, none are bayfront but they might as well be. Ten Museum Park, Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne and Marquis each reside directly behind Biscayne Boulevard and what was formerly known as Bicentennial Park, both of which won’t obstruct views of the bay as long as they are owned by the city of Miami.
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
Judgment Day Just Around the Corner for the Miami Condo Market
There are a number of premier condo buildings that are scheduled for completion in the next six months throughout Miami. These include, but are not limited to, the following:
It will be interesting to see, in the coming months, where prices will go from here. The number of distressed properties has been climbing throughout Miami-Dade County and that number should escalate as these new units hit the market. A year ago properties in Miami were selling like hotcakes. 12 months later the market has cooled considerably in Miami, as has the overall national real estate market. Vulture capitalists have been circling the skies of Miami for over two years, waiting for the right moment to swoop in and scavenge the real estate market here in Miami. 12 months ago vulture capitalists were told that their moment would never come as some real estate markets, throughout the United States, turned in double-digit growth. However, the next six months might be just the moment that they have been waiting for as national foreclosure filings has increased 35 percent over the previous year, according to RealtyTrac. Coupled with the increasing number of new properties that will come on board in the coming months, Miami may be ripe for the picking. The question is “Will the vulture capitalists provide a cushioned bottom for the inevitable judgment day that awaits the condo market?”. “Can their deep pockets provide the support that this market needs or will we find out just how deep the rabbit-hole goes?”
As the day of judgment comes we, here at Miami Condo Investments, will be ready to seek out the best opportunities and pass them along to our faithful blog subscribers. We plan to provide a complete analysis on all condo investment opportunities that meet our criteria, along with a comparative market analysis, pictures of the properties and, in some cases, video so our subscribers can fully grasp the opportunity.
