Miami Condo Index – Brickell – August 2008
It has been four months since the last installment of the Miami Condo Index for Brickell. The last update for Brickell condos was provided in April 2008. The data below was collected on August 18, 2008 from the MLS. While crunching the numbers earlier today, it quickly became apparent that prices have continued to fall within the past four months and, in some cases, prices have fallen hard.
The Brickell Condo Index now stands at an average price per square foot of $441.84. This represents a 7.71 percent drop in the average asking prices of the 18 condo developments that comprise the Brickell Condo Index over the past four months, or an annualized loss of 23.13 percent. You’ll see in the graph towards the bottom of the post that about four condo developments have had significant reductions in their average asking prices within the past four months.
Average price per square foot of Brickell condos currently listed on the MLS:
The average price of Brickell condos sold over the past six months has dropped 23.49 percent to $313.97 per square foot from April’s average of $410.38. However, much of this drop is attributed to the fact that Four Seasons Residences, which sells at the highest price per square foot of the 18 condo developments comprising the Brickell Condo Index, has not had one closed sale in the MLS within the past six months and therefore was not included in this month’s average. The average would have dropped around 14.37 percent had Four Seasons Residences been included using its April average. That would still have represented an annualized drop in the average sales prices of about 43 percent!!!
Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $241.89
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | N/A
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $379.26
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $240.51
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | N/A
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.83
- Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $447.72
- Latitude on the River – 185 SW 7 St | 33130 | $323.74
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $264.58
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $316.15
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $625.05
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $296.45
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | N/A
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $224.18
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $311.29
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $240.85
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $292.44
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $188.62
Below you will find some additional statistics:
As in the past, the first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. An “N/A” is found next to Brickell on the River, Four Seasons Residences and Solaris at Brickell since this percentage could not be computed as each building failed to have a closed sale within the past six months through the MLS, and thus did not have an average price per square foot for condos sold. A high percentage indicates that there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price for condos currently on the market and what has actually sold within the past six months.
The second column is the number of active listings in each condo development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. To me, this is one indication of a sound condo development. Bristol Tower, Four Seasons Residences, Imperial at Brickell, Santa Maria, The Palace and Villa Regina are the condo buildings highlighted in green. All, with the exception of Four Seasons Residences, were built prior to 2000 and none were targets for wild speculation during the last real estate boom. The ones highlighted in red reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. There’s definitely underlying risk in buying in these condo developments and I’d only advise buying in one of these if the price justifies the risk. Jade, Solaris at Brickell and Vue at Brickell are the condo developments highlighted in red. Each was built in 2004 or after and victimized by speculation and rampant mortgage fraud. Prices in each have fallen like a ton of bricks within the past year. The condo developments with active listings less than 10 percent are considered safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past six months. There are a total of 79 total pending sales in the 18 condo buildings represented in the Brickell Condo Index. In April, there were a total of 58 pending sales at the time. The Club at Brickell Bay, Vue at Brickell and Jade each have pending sales in the double digits. The same goes for closed sales within the past six months in each of these condo developments. In April, there were a total of 64 closed sales within the past six months. This figure has almost doubled since April with a total of 123 closed sales within the past six months. With 25 closed sales within the past six months and 25 pending sales in the pipeline at The Club at Brickell, I question myself whether some sort of stability is finally being reached. Again, the 25 closed sales had an average price of around $224 per square foot. If the answer to my questions is no, then where will the dust finally settle? Of the three condo developments, The Club at Brickell Bay was the only one which has had a reduction in its active listings since April. That, to me, is progress. From November 2007 until April 2008, average sales prices at The Club at Brickell Bay fell about 46 percent. Now since April, we have seen another large drop of about 39 percent in its average sales price. By year’s end, can prices at The Club at Brickell Bay hit the $150 per square foot mark that many of the commentors on this blog have mentioned? A 30 percent drop in sales prices will bring us very, very close to that oft-mentioned number. A better question is, will the pundits of this blog revise their guidance downward if that figure does become an eventuality in a few condo developments in Brickell?
The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and April’s, expressed as a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. Emerald at Brickell saw asking prices drop a little over 23 percent, Vue at Brickell slightly under 23 percent, Solaris at Brickell around 20 percent, The Club at Brickell Bay about 17.5 percent, Neo Vertika 11.4 percent and Jade 11.25 percent. Only Santa Maria and The Palace experienced average list prices actually rise.
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and April’s, expressed as a percentage. Emerald at Brickell saw the largest drop with a 41.21 percent decline, although only one closed sale was found in the MLS within the past six months to calculate its new average. It has a difference of around 46 percent in its average sales and asking prices. This is the largest pricing discrepancy amongst the 18 condo developments represented in the Brickell Condo Index. This just shows me that asking prices at Emerald at Brickell still have a ways to come down before reaching its market clearing value. The Club at Brickell Bay had its average sales price drop around 39 percent, Skyline on Brickell around 25.5 percent, The Palace about 25 percent and Villa Regina around 25 percent. Only Latitude on the River and Santa Maria experienced an uptick in average sales prices since the last Brickell Condo Index update.
This the first month where we saw average sales prices for a Brickell condo building fall below $200 per square foot. Vue at Brickell is now sitting on an average sales price of around $189 per square foot, calculated from the 17 closed sales in the MLS that it has had within the past six months. A look at the listings currently available at Vue at Brickell indicates that prices will continue to fall, as over 30 listings have an asking price below the $189 per square foot average. In fact, four listings are currently asking less than $150 per square foot. It goes without saying that Vue at Brickell will likely hit the $150 average sales mark before any of the other condo developments in the Brickell Condo Index.
Another insight I made while pondering the figures for this month’s Brickell Condo Index is that Santa Maria is alive and kicking. It looks healthy despite the slow down in the real estate market. Its average listing and sales prices have both gone up within the past four months. It has also had 8 closed sales within the past six months. That may not seem like a lot but, with only 174 total condos, Santa Maria is not a huge mega-building with 500-plus units like we often see nowadays. It also has the most realistic asking prices. The discrepancy in asking and sales prices is 15.81 percent, the lowest amongst the 18 condo developments. Couple all that with the fact that the currently available listings at Santa Maria only represent around 8 percent of its possible inventory and I’m saying that it’s good to see that there’s still one stand-up condo development amongst the 18.
Solaris at Brickell Bay – Deal or No Deal?
There’s a one bedroom/one bath foreclosure at Solaris at Brickell Bay that is currently listed for $159,900. The price of this 730 square foot condo was recently reduced 33 percent. I showed the condo to a client this afternoon and found it to be in great condition. The condo has real hard wood floors, stainless steel appliances and a bay view from the balcony.
Normally, I would say that this condo, with a list price that amounts to $219 per square foot, is a great deal. However, there have been recent sales at Solaris at Brickell Bay that have me scratching my head. These closed sales do not appear in the MLS. Be prepared to be shocked!
- Unit 706 – 1 bedroom/1 bath – sold for $28,000 in May 2008 ($37 per square foot)
- Unit 803 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – sold for $10,000 in May 2008 ($9 per square foot)
- Unit 1103 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – sold for $22,000 in April 2008 ($21 per square foot)
Each unit was sold to separate individuals. Does anyone know the story behind these? Were these once owned by the same bank who needed to liquidate their properties quickly? I would think that they’d at least be able to get $125,000 for the one bedroom and $200,000 for the two bedrooms under normal circumstances.
Solaris at Brickell Bay was victimized by mortgage fraud which is now resulting in a high number of foreclosures. There are risks associated with buying into a building that has a lot of foreclosures because of the likely unpaid monthly maintenance fees from these units. There’s risk that a future special assessment could be billed to all condo owners if the association’s financial condition deteriorates as a result. There’s also a risk that the condo building is not properly maintained. Read the post entitled “Will History Repeat Itself in Miami?” to learn more about how bad things can get for a building who can’t pay its bills.
Nonetheless, with all risks considered, selling a condo for $9-$37 per square foot in Brickell seems crazy to me. I know someone out there has the story behind these recently sold condos. Please share with the rest of us.
Scoring Criteria for the Miami Condo Rankings Page
For detailed information regarding how these scores were created, please refer to the post entitled “Miami Condo Rankings Page Goes Live“.
Photo Tour of Axis – Brickell Condo
I had the opportunity to tour Axis last Tuesday morning with a client. I brought my digital camera with me and had the chance to snap off a bunch of pictures of the common areas at Axis as well as a few model units. Axis has a large amenity level which includes a resort-style pool, separate lap pool, hot tub, audio/video room, steam room, barbecue grill, bar lounge area, billiards tables, various seating areas with flat-screen TVs and a fitness center. I tried to shoot most of the amenities at Axis but wasn’t able to get quite everything.
The following is a shot of the seating area in the lobby of the South Tower at Axis.
Here you’ll find the resort-style pool at Axis.
Here’s an aerial shot of the resort-style pool at Axis from one of the balconies. I wasn’t able to get a shot of the lap pool.
Here’s the hot tub at Axis.
The two billiards tables at Axis.
The bar lounge at Axis located off the pool deck.
A seating area with a flat-screen TV at Axis.
Another seating area with a flat-screen TV.
Yet another seating area but without a flat-screen TV.
Steam room at Axis.
A shot of the fitness center at Axis.
Another shot of the fitness center at Axis.
As I mentioned, I was able to also tour a few of the model condo units at Axis. I was told that all of the kitchen appliances and cabinetry are standard except the Penthouse condos. The Penthouse condos come with upgraded Viking appliances.
Here’s one of the fully decorated model units that I saw at Axis.
Here’s a corner 2 bedroom condo at Axis which faces northwest. If you are interested in a north facing unit then you’ll likely want to clear the Camden Brickell development directly across the street. I believe Camden Brickell has about 16 floors.
The bathrooms were pretty nice. This is a shot of the master bath in a 2 bedroom unit. The 1 bedroom units have only one sink in the bathroom though.
The master bedroom was quite spacious in this 2 bedroom condo at Axis.
The closet in the master bedroom was also quite spacious.
The stackable washer/dryer at Axis.
That concludes my photo tour of Axis. Overall, I was pleased with the building and units given the price range for condos at Axis. I definitely wouldn’t categorize it as a high-quality building but one shouldn’t expect that given the price point. Axis is a great option for a young professional working in the Financial District who wants to be in a brand new building but wants to be towards the lower end of the spectrum on price. I think the quality of the building and units is most comparable to Plaza on Brickell, although I do prefer Plaza on Brickell minus the parking woes there. Compare the pricing of both condo developments by checking the available listings of both below.
New Miami Condos – Closings Rates for July 2008
The last closing rate update was published on May 28, 2008. I collected the data for this month’s update this past Sunday, July 6, 2008. This month, I also included the number of closed units below each graph in parentheses.
Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings followed by the number of closed units in each condo development:
Not much has changed with this first group of condo developments since the May update except with 50 Biscayne. It went from having around a 67% closing rate to about a 75% closing rate since the last update. However, I took a close look at the numbers and noticed that 26 of the 43 newly closed condos were deeded to TRG 50 Bisc Suites LLC. All 26 units were suite units. It appears as though The Related Group transferred these 26 units to another one of its own entities. I’m not exactly sure though. Even without these 26 units, 50 Biscayne would have had 17 newly closed units. Onyx on the Bay had 5 newly closed units.
Plaza on Brickell saw the most improvement in the group of condo developments above since the last update with a 13 point increase in closings. It now shows that 52% of the overall 1,000 units have closed. You’ll also find slight to moderate improvements in the other condo developments in this group. According to public records, Apogee South Beach now only needs 6 more condo units to close in order to reach 100%.
Marina Blue continued to show good improvement in this update with around a 14 point increase in closings. Marina Blue now has nearly 60 percent of its condos closed. Wind had an increase of around 11 points, Asia around 10 points and Avenue at Brickell slightly over 7 points.
Above is the newest batch of condo developments that recently began closings. I must say that I’m pretty impressed with 900 Biscayne Bay having 79 closed units within the past 2 months. It probably actually has 100 or more closed units by now since there can be a 2-3 week delay in the time that a condo closes and the time that the deed is recorded. It’s still too early to judge the other three condo developments in this group. The next update should shed a little more light. I did have a chance to tour Axis today for the first time. I’ll try to share some pictures with everyone towards the end of the week. By the way, I wasn’t able to find Met 1 which is why it wasn’t included in this update.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing is recorded.
Villa Magna Project Lives On…
…at least for the time being. The “Miami Today News” reported last week that the Villa Magna project is still pushing forward. I guess we can all scrap the inkling of a dream that the land would become a public park. I don’t think any of us actually thought it would be turned into a park but rather just wishful thinking that the city wanted a nice green space for the residents of Brickell. The Villa Magna project will reside on the last bayfront lot in Brickell. Now, we can all move on to hoping that the Brickell CitiCentre land will become a public park.
The same issue of the “Miami Today News ” also discussed the relocation of the Camillus House. For those not local to Miami, the Camillus House is a homeless shelter located in the neighborhood of Park West, a few blocks west of new luxury condo high-rise buildings such as Ten Museum Park, 900 Biscayne Bay, Marquis and Marina Blue. The good news is that the relocation of the homeless shelter is still going to happen. The bad news is that the move won’t happen until 2010. I think residents of these condo buildings are highly anticipating that day to arrive. The neighborhood will see a dramatic improvement and, as the article mentions, commercial developers will be more prone to open retail space in the neighborhood. 2010 will be a great year! The Super Bowl will be returning to Miami and Camillus House will be heading west!
Update: I do plan to update this blog on a more frequent basis like you had enjoyed in the past. I took some time off but now I’m back in full blogging mode. The new “Condo Deals” page is coming along nicely and should be rolled out by the end of next week. I’m looking forward to that as well as a few other changes that I think you’ll all enjoy.
Great Artwork in Miami Condo Buildings
Walking through the common areas of some of the new condo buildings in Miami feels almost like walking through an art gallery. It’s great to see that some of these developers have decided to add an artistic touch to their buildings. You’ll find a lot of artwork in buildings such as Quantum on the Bay, 900 Biscayne Bay and 500 Brickell. Below I’ll share with you a few pieces that I really like. I had the chance to take a picture of these yesterday afternoon.
The one above is my favorite. It looks so much better in person though. This piece can be found at 900 Biscayne Bay on the 15th floor between the club room and spa. The building is full of art and the developer has chosen the pieces from local art galleries. I’ve visited 900 Biscayne Bay over the previous 5 days in a row showing units to various clients. The more I visit this building the more I LOVE it. Of all the new condo buildings completed within the past 2 years, this is hands down the BEST. The quality of the building and units is impeccable. The views are fabulous as well. When I show clients units in various buildings, I usually leave 900 Biscayne Bay last on the agenda. It’s on a completely different level.
I found the piece above to be quite interesting as well. It can be found on the rooftop lounge room at 500 Brickell. The building has lots of artwork throughout the common areas. You’ll definitely find more artwork at 500 Brickell than other Related Group condo developments in Miami. I wonder if Icon Brickell will have as much eye candy when it is completed.
I heard that there’s going to be an art show at Quantum on the Bay next week. I saw various art pieces throughout the lobby on Monday or Tuesday that I found appealing. Does anyone know the date and time that this art exhibit will occur?
Villa Regina Condo Amenities Video
About a month ago, I shared with everyone a 5 bedroom/5 bath condo listing I received at Villa Regina. Since that time, I’ve worked with a professional videographer to get footage of the building and the condo unit. I’m hoping that I’ll be able to share with everyone a new condo building video every month. My goal is to have a professionally-made video library of all of the major condo buildings in Miami within 2-3 years. I think this will be a great resource for locals and nonlocals alike.
Villa Regina Amenities and Common Areas:
Here’s the video, with a narrative voiceover, of the 5 bedroom/5 bath condo with 4,100 interior square feet listed for $1,499,900 at Villa Regina:
Nonlocal buyers represent a large share of the percentage of people buying in Miami right now. My hope is that these videos will help these types of buyers to familiarize themselves with the various condo buildings throughout Miami.
New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for May 2008
It’s been almost 2 months since my last post regarding the closing rates of various Miami condo developments. That post was published on April 4, 2008. Referring back to that post and comparing it to the figures in the graph below, you may quickly realize that I must have made a mistake last month when pulling the data for Loft Downtown 2. I’m not sure how that happened. I double and tripled checked the figures this month, however, for all of the condo developments.
Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings:
Even with the overstatement of closed units corrected, Loft Downtown 2 still has the best closing rate of any condo development located in Miami included in this post, and the second best overall. Loft Downtown 2 isn’t as close to hitting the 100 percent mark as I had previously thought, but it’s doing comparatively quite well. The overall closing rate at 50 Biscayne increased slightly over 6 points while the rest, in the group above, increased 2.52 points or less, since the last update.
As over half of this group approaches the one year mark since their closings began, a few interesting questions come to mind. What is happening to the defaulted condos? Are developer’s leasing them and holding until the market gets better or are they hoping for onesy and twosy buyers to come along to slowly deplete their inventory? Are any of these developers feeling the pain yet? I’ve heard that at least one of these condo developers has been for a few months. If that’s true, then when, if ever, are we going to see some bulk sales?
I’m sure glad he’s proving me wrong. Those were my first thoughts when looking at the chart above. My second thoughts are that Apogee South Beach has continued to make great strides in closing its condos. Apogee has improved almost 15 points since my last update. Quantum on the Bay and 1800 Club, the only other two condo developments in the group above the 50 percent mark, each continued to show nice progress as well.
Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings:
Marina Blue is off to a very good start. Pretty impressive from a condo development that started closings so late in the game. Asia is doing relatively well given that it had its first closing less than two months ago. However, Asia has only 123 total units. I’m expecting that we’ll some good progress in Asia’s closing rate next month. I guess we’ll have to wait for the next update, however, to find out.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing is recorded.
