The average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell Key has gone down once again, as it has every month since I began this index. The average price per square foot of the ten condos, which represent the Brickell Key Condo Index, fell to $494.61 this month from last month’s figure of $501.55. The weight-adjusted average also fell to $490.87 per square foot versus last month’s weight-adjusted average of $497.82.
Average price per square foot of Brickell Key condos currently listed on the MLS:
This is the first month since I began the Brickell Key Condo Index that the average price per square foot of condos sold over the previous six months has gone up. The average price per square foot of condos sold within the last six months increased to $435.21 from last month’s average of $430.08. The weight-adjusted average also increased to $433.31 from last month’s weight-adjusted average of $424.57. Most of this is attributed to the lack of closed sales at Brickell Key Two. A closed sale of $375 per square foot at Brickell Key Two fell off the average and was replaced by a new closed sale within the past month at $446 per square foot. One closed sale within the past six months encompassed the average in October and November. As I said, the lack of closed sales is to blame.
Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $440.14
One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $407.77
St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $442.40
Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $461.58
Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $450.84
Additional statistics can be found in the chart below:
There have been a total of 6 closed sales within the past month which is much better than the pathetic 2 closings revealed in last month’s update. These 6 closings, however, were highly concentrated with 4 of the 6 closings residing at Carbonell. Pending sales have inched up to 18 from last month’s 16 pending sales.
Brickell Condo Index – November 2007
The following data was collected on November 18, 2007. It took me a while to get everything up due to the holiday and work. I made a correction to October’s data. The average price per square foot of closed sales over the previous six months at Vue at Brickell was previously stated at $364.32. The correct figure should have been $469.93. The correction has been made and the overall average for closed sales in Brickell was adjusted to $481.69 instead of $475.16.
The average price per square foot of condos listed has once again dropped this month to $512.14 from last month’s figure of $518.91. The weight-adjusted average also dropped to $509.24 per square foot from last month’s figure of $521.29.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
Someone recently commented that the average price per square foot of closed sales statistic doesn’t provide much insight due to the lack of activity in the Miami real estate market. This is quite true. List prices need to come down more in order for buyers to be enticed into buying. The condos that have been selling lately are the ones that are aggressively priced. Once each building has at least 5 or more closed sales then the average will begin to show more insight. Below you will see the total number of closings within the past six months in each condo development:
As you can see all of the buildings except One Miami and Neo Vertika have 4 or less closings. The lack of closed sales doesn’t make for an informative average. Nonetheless, I will continue to provide this statistic in hopes that the peak-season months will bring in more closed sales. I have definitely seen more interest within the past couple of weeks. The average price of condos sold over the past six months has gone down to $472.80 from last month’s figure of $481.69. Emerald at Brickell hasn’t had any closed sales within the past six months. The drop would have been less if the average for Emerald at Brickell would have remained the same at $523.78. If that were the case then the average price of condos sold over the past six months in Brickell would have been $475.80.
Average price per square foot of condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:
Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $283.10
Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $400.00
Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $422.66
The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $684.44
The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $575.90
The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $395.54
Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $403.39
Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $406.92
Below you will find some additional statistics:
As with last month, the first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. The Club at Brickell Bay, The Mark on Brickell and The Palace are the only developments that have a higher average sales price than list price. The former two have questionable closed sales included in the six month average.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. I find this to be a healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. I would stay away from these condo developments and others that approach the 20 percent mark. The condo developments with active listings less than 10 percent are considered very safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past month. The number of pending sales has dropped this month to 49 from last month’s figure of 51. The number of closed sales within the past month has remained the same at 7, which is still the lowest that I’ve seen in Brickell within one month since I’ve been tracking this statistic.
The sixth column show you the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. As you can see, listings at Solaris at Brickell had an increase of 7.47 percent within the past month. Much of this increase is attributed to a new listing that is listed at $904 per square foot! What are they thinking? What I find to be particularly funny is that it says “Owner Hardly Motivated” in the broker remarks. Why even list it then? It is a one bedroom with 730 square feet listed for $660,000. I’m going to keep my eye on this one because I wouldn’t be surprised to see it under contract by the wrong type of buyer.
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed as a percentage. The 15.49 percent price decrease at Skyline on Brickell is mainly attributed to a closed sale at a high price per square foot that dropped off the average. The large 27.41 percent price increase at Villa Regina is legitimate. There have been two closed sales in the building within the past month and one of them was a 3,060 square foot 3 bedroom/3.5 bath condo with a direct bay view that sold for $1,480,000, or $484 per square foot.
I think next month we’ll see more activity. I did notice that Jade had 2 closed sales on November 20, 2007. Those transactions will appear on next month’s Brickell Condo Index.
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – November 2007
I’m going to start including a monthly condo trends report. My hope is that it will help to shed more light on the current state of the market. It is likely to be my most followed monthly piece. After the new year it, along with some other newly added statistics such as a rental market index, will become “premium” content. Just wanted to give you all the heads up. I just finished compiling the numbers and I was pretty shocked.
I basically wanted to find out how many months of inventory we have in Miami and Miami Beach. I created a report for Miami-Dade County, one for Miami and one for Miami Beach. I broke each report down to various price ranges to figure out which category has been affected the most. I took closed sales for the month of October and compared it to the inventory that is now available. Below you will find the numbers for Miami-Dade County:
As you can see Miami-Dade County has about 55 months, or 4.58 years, worth of inventory. I wanted to see how much of this supply resides in Miami compared to Miami Beach. Below you will find the numbers for Miami:
Miami currently has a 48 1/2 month, or approximately a 4 year, supply of condos. That’s actually much lower than I expected. However, keep in mind that there are thousands of condos that will come onto the market within the next 24 months. In fact, in July, I calculated that a little over 16,000 condos would hit the market within the next 19 months in the neighborhoods of Brickell Key, Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. Probably about 1,500 or so units have hit the market since I wrote that post. If you add 14,500 units to the Miami figures above then we’re looking at close to a 10 year supply. Now that’s quite shocking!!!
Let’s take a look at the Miami Beach figures:
I was surprised to learn that the supply of Miami Beach condos is higher than that of Miami’s. The number of new condos coming onto the market, however, in Miami Beach pales in comparison to the new condos scheduled to hit the market within the next two years. My guess is that about 1,500 units will hit the Miami Beach market in that time which would put it at around an 8 year supply. Still pretty shocking given that it’s Miami Beach! I was equally shocked by the low number of closings in the $500,000-$999,999 price range. That appears to be a problematic price range if you’re a condo owner looking to sell somewhere in that range.
Despite a number of news stories that have hit the press lately, it looks like the ultra-luxury ($2.5M+) market isn’t moving. It has very few available listings compared to the other categories but it had basically no closed sales in October. There were a total of two in all of Dade-County. Both were located in Bal Harbour.
I receive a lot of monthly phone calls from investors who are waiting for the market to bottom-out. They all want to know when is the “right” time to buy into the South Florida condo market. I’m hoping that a report like the one above can help me pinpoint when that time might be.
A recent Fortune magazine article entitled, “Real Estate: Buy, Sell, or Hold?”, said the following:
The combination of steep discounts to move inventory and a stream of new communities built at a lower cost will keep prices far below their peak levels in the boom towns. And they’ll keep falling until builders work off the massive inventories. The tumbling prices of new homes, in turn, will put enormous pressure on the far bigger existing-home market, already under stress from two desperate groups of sellers, investors and banks. Hence, the adjustment needed to bring the ratio of prices to rents into alignment will happen far faster than in most housing downturns. “In the most vulnerable places in California and Florida, it’s highly possible that most of the correction will happen by the end of 2008,” says (Mark) Zandi, (chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com).
The article was mainly discussing single-family homes but I think the same holds true for the condo market. The Miami condo market is likely to drop lower, on a percentage basis, than other major U.S. cities but I agree with Mark Zandi that the market here will be quicker to correct itself because of the high number of foreclosures and defaults that we are likely to see. 2008 will be a time of readjustment. I’m looking quite forward to it.
Marina Blue – Two Condos on High Floors For Sale
Someone who has contracts on two great units at Marina Blue contacted me earlier this week. He wants to sell one prior to closing and hold onto the other.
The first condo is unit 5108. The 08 line is the best line in the entire building since it is situated in the middle of the building and has the best views. This condo has 10-foot ceilings. All units on the 45th floor or higher have 10-foot ceilings as opposed to the non-loft units below that have 9-foot ceilings. The unit has 1,334 square feet of interior space and a 160 square foot balcony. He is asking $740,000 for this unit.
The second condo is unit 4609. It is a very rare floor plan that I didn’t even know existed in the building. There are only six units that have this floor plan in the entire building. The condo has a total of 1,754 square feet of interior space and a 240 square foot balcony. As with the other unit, it has 10-foot ceilings. Both units have amazing water views. You can see the South Beach skyline, Biscayne Bay and the Atlantic Ocean. As you can see from the floor plan below it has a huge living room. He is asking $899,000 for this unit.
Closings are likely to begin at Marina Blue in December. Contact me if you or someone you know has an interested in either of these two units.
Plaza on Brickell – 1 Bedroom/1 Bath – $282,000
The above picture of the progress at Plaza on Brickell was taken this afternoon. The weather was just perfect today, as it has been for the past four days. 80 degrees, no humidity and clear skies! What more can you ask for in November?
Plaza on Brickell is scheduled to begin closings in January of 2008. I’m a fan of this development for two reasons: price and location. Well, actually three. I also like the commercial aspect of the development on the ground floor along Brickell Avenue. I’ve been told that these spaces have already been accounted for and that a few fantastic restaurants and cafes will open there. It will nicely compliment the shops and restaurants at Mary Brickell Village which are only a few short blocks away. City living is finally beginning to transform Miami.
Someone contacted me a few weeks ago who has a 1 bedroom/1 bath condo under contract at Plaza on Brickell. He went to contract on the unit the first day that sales began. The condo has 838 square feet of interior space and a 130 square foot balcony. The unit is located on the northwest corner of the 851 tower, which is the taller of the two towers, and is situated above the 20th floor. The floor plan of the available condo is below:
The contract holder of this condo at Plaza on Brickell is looking to sell it for $282,000, or $337 per square foot. Units at Plaza on Brickell come move-in ready. Contact me with any questions or if you have an interest in acquiring this condo.
Will History Repeat Itself in Miami?
Earlier this week, I showed a few condos at Villa Regina to a lady who has owned a unit in the building since 1983. She and her husband purchased their condo in November of that year. She told me that for the first year and a half to two years only 25 condos were owned of the 208 total units. The bust had happened and nobody wanted to buy. The developer, Nicholas Morley, eventually went under and the building was later taken over by the FDIC. Nicholas Morley, was a big-time developer back then who was the equivalent of today’s Jorge Perez or Ugo Columbo.
She said that nobody would touch Villa Regina with a ten-foot pole for the first two years after she purchased because the building was either in receivership, meaning that it was undergoing foreclosure proceedings, or it had already been foreclosed upon. As a result, the common areas were under-maintained. The building didn’t have any security, air conditioning in the hallways, a concierge in the lobby nor valet service.
Before the building went into receivership, she, her husband and the condo owners who represented the other 24 units met each month to resolve the problems. They wanted answers. No, in fact, they wanted action. Each month, the condo board sent requests to the developer stating that they themselves would pay to have the building maintained 100 percent. The developer never answered their pleas.
After Villa Regina was foreclosed upon, there were rumors that Nicholas Morley wished to acquire the building from the FDIC for 10 cents on the dollar. The condo board sent letters to the FDIC to prevent this from happening. Nicholas Morley had made them suffer long enough and they didn’t wish to take any chances.
An investment group stepped up to the plate and purchased the remaining units at Villa Regina from the FDIC, a few years after she and her husband had purchased their condo. She stated that “almost overnight, there was interest in buying condos at Villa Regina”. I asked her for how much the investment group purchased the remaining units. She didn’t know but guessed that it was around 50 cents on the dollar. The level of maintenance that was initially promised had finally been restored. People wanted in because the dark cloud that hung over Villa Regina had been lifted. The investment group was then able to sell the remaining units for a profit.
It was especially interesting to hear, from the above source, that the building fell into the hands of the FDIC. This indicates to me that the bank which loaned the money to the developer also went under as well. I don’t expect buildings in Miami on the horizon, however, to fall into the hands of the FDIC for too long, if at all. The world is too widely connected nowadays. Information exchanges hands at such a rapid pace. Investment groups will act much faster in today’s era than that of the 1980s. If a bank yells, “Help!”, several investment groups will be there to say, “Help has arrived, but how bad do you need it?”.
There’s been talk that the current boom and bust in Miami is worse than had existed in the early 1980s. I’ve advised my readers time and again to watch out for the new digs. If you feel like buying, then look for those buildings that were built prior to 2000. They have much more stability because most units in those buildings are owner-occupied. Investors/speculators flocked to the new buildings and those that were yet to be built. The possibility of the above occurring in a new condo development in Miami is likely within the next couple of years. That’s why I’ve been keeping a close eye on each new development’s ability to close units. If you are interested in buying in a new development then you must be aware of the default rate that is occurring there. Those with a default rate higher than 30 percent, in my opinion, will be ones to stay away from until much of this excess supply is purchased.
The oversupply problem in Miami does indeed currently exist and is worse than that which existed in the early 1980s. However, the level of demand that currently exists far outpaces that of which was evident in that decade. Miami is now on the map. Miami now has world-wide attention. The strength of foreign currencies relative to the U.S. Dollar has made it more alluring for foreigners to buy here. It has also become a mecca for second-home buyers, retirees and those who wish to live in tropical climes throughout the year.
The opening lines of the movie Armageddon says, “It happened before. It will happen again. It’s just a question of when”. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself in Miami and, if so, then to what extent.
A Picture & Video Tour of 50 Biscayne in Downtown Miami
I had walked into 50 Biscayne a few times prior to today but didn’t have my camcorder on me each time. I wanted to share with everyone what a great job The Related Group of Florida did with this development so I decided to go back to 50 Biscayne today with the objective of sharing some pictures and video of the common areas with my readers.
Today, I was able to get shots of the lobby, swimming pool deck, fitness center and views to the east from the 10th floor pool deck at 50 Biscayne.
Below you will find a picture slideshow of each at 50 Biscayne:
The following will show you the video that I shot today of the lobby, swimming pool deck, fitness center and views to the east at 50 Biscayne:
I took a peak into the two club rooms but each was locked so I wasn’t able to shoot either of those. Both looked very well decorated, however, from the peaks I got through the doors of each. The valet drop-off area was also very impressive, with a cascading water feature along the wall. I forgot to get shots of the business center at 50 Biscayne located on the main floor.
Of the 529 total condos at 50 Biscayne, I’ve been able to find 33 recorded closings. There can be a 2-3 week delay in recording a closing. Hundreds more are likely to follow in the coming months. Closings began October 1, 2007. I’m expecting about an 18.7 percent default rate at 50 Biscayne. That’s just my estimation, however. Take it for what you want. Enjoy!
Latest Prices at Ten Museum Park
Below you will find the latest prices for units at Ten Museum Park. These are defaulted units that were taken back by the developer. They have been discounted 15 percent off of their original prices set in January of 2004. Contact me if you’re interested in viewing any of these units.
1 Bedroom/1.5 Bath – 858 interior SF/143 exterior SF
1608 – $335,000
3008 – $350,000
1905 – $325,000
2 Bedrooms/2.5 Baths – 1,239 interior SF/192 exterior SF
4106 – $450,000
2 Bedrooms/2.5 Baths – 1,906-1,949 interior SF/192 exterior SF
1602 – $799,000
2504 – $825,000
3 Bedrooms + den/5 Baths -4,005 interior SF/533 exterior SF
The 2 bedroom + den/2 bath loft at Neo Vertika that I wrote about on September 4 closed Wednesday afternoon. The unit has 1,255 square feet of interior space, 20-foot ceilings, a large balcony that extends the length of the unit and comes with the upgraded stainless steel appliance package. Since it has never been lived in before it comes “decorator-ready”. This south-facing two-story loft is located on the 29th and 30th floors and overlooks the swimming pool and has obstructed views of Biscayne Bay. The unit was sold as a short-sale so my client was able to acquire it at a great price. The purchase price was $303,800 and the appraisal came in at $445,000.
My client’s plan was to rent and hold the unit for around 2-3 years before selling it. However, I have received some interest from people wanting to look at it and possibly acquire it once he closed. I will be showing the unit to all interested parties for the next week or two. After that, my client will install the floors and likely rent it as he had planned.
The best priced D floor plan at Neo Vertika is currently listed at $450,000. My client is willing to sell his unit for $385,000, which would make it priced even better than the smaller, and less desirable, 2 bedroom C floor plan units currently available in the building.
The picture slideshow below will show you unit 2919 at Neo Vertika which is the loft that my client purchased:
I also did a video walk-through of the unit:
The following video will show you the common areas at Neo Vertika. This video was shot about 12 months ago and the common areas were not 100 percent complete at the time.
If you have an interest in viewing this unit and the building in person then contact me to schedule a showing.
