Those of you who have closely followed my blog know that I’m a big advocate of Ten Museum Park, for reasons that I have cited in the past. I’ve predicted that, of the condo developments that are scheduled to close within the next six months, Ten Museum Park would have the least amount of problems.
After reviewing the number of closings, as of late, at Ten Museum Park, I pray that my prediction pans out to be highly inaccurate. If, however, my prediction does prove to be true, then the Miami condo market is in for a world of pain. As I said, I pray that my prediction proves to be wrong.
Closings for units at Ten Museum Park began towards the middle of June 2007. As of last week, a total of 76 closings have been recorded since the middle of June. There are 200 total units at Ten Museum Park. Those 76 units represent 38 percent of the overall building. What has happened to the other 62 percent? A total of 6 closings occurred in the previous 4 weeks prior to last week. Closings are grinding to a halt.
Closings for units on the upper 15 floors only began within the past 3 weeks, so perhaps a significant percentage of units on those upper floors will ultimately close. That’s best-case scenario.
I know for a fact that many contract holders at Ten Museum Park have been dragging their feet to reach the closing table by asking for extension after extension. When push comes to shove, what percentage of the remaining units will close and what percentage will default? At this point, the bank must be calling the developer three times a day.
Let’s be optimistic for a minute and say that 30 percent of the contract holders at Ten Museum Park ultimately default. What does that mean for the rest of the Miami condo market? If a highly regarded development such as Ten Museum Park can have default rates that reach 30 percent, then what lies in store for the remaining developments that are scheduled to be completed within the next 6-12 months?
I expected high default rates to occur at Ten Museum Park in their 05 line, because of the lack of views, but a high amount of defaults have spread to the 05, 06 and 07 and 08 lines as well. After personally touring these floor plans, however, they all seemed to be smaller than the square footage that was represented at contract time, so I shouldn’t be surprised. Only the 01, 02, 03 and 04 lines seemed to deliver an interior space that was promised.
I’ve also predicted, in the past, that of the condo developments scheduled to close within the next 24 months, Opera Tower would have the most problems. Originally, closings at Opera Tower were scheduled for August. Then, they were pushed back to September. I don’t foresee closings to begin at Opera Tower until early November. I won’t be surprised if closings don’t begin until the beginning of next year. From what I’ve heard, the amenity deck at Opera Tower is at least one month away from being completed. I’ve spoken with several contract holders at Opera Tower who have no intention of closing on their contracts.
If the best-case scenario for Ten Museum Park is to have a 30 percent default rate, then what will that mean for developments such as Opera Tower? 50 percent defaults? 60 percent defaults? Opera Tower has 635 total units. That’s a bitch-ass high number of condos that will remain unsold at Opera Tower if those estimates prove to be true.
Let’s pretend to be ultra-conservative in our estimated default rates. Let’s say that the condo developments that are scheduled to close within the next 24 months have an average default rate of 10 percent. I’ve previously cited that 16,070 new condo units would be delivered within the next 19 months. Using our ultra-conservative default estimate of 10 percent, this would mean that 1,607 units will not close. How long will it take to fill this void? Your guess is as good as mine.
Miami is a market that will once again see double-digit growth within the next 10 years. How long will it be until we reach that point? The land that I walk on each day is paradise. There’s no doubt about that. Even Tony Montana said it himself, “This is paradise,” and we all know that all he has in this world are his word and his balls, and he don’t break them for nobody. But Miami was overbuilt. Right now Miami is in an adjustment period. Once the inventory in the condo market is absorbed then paradise lost will once again be regained. But how long will that take?
I’d love to see your comments. How long will it take to fill this large supply of Miami condos?
Star Lofts on the Bay – The Next Condo Development up for Auction?
Star Lofts on the Bay looks to me to be a prime candidate to have a developer closeout sale in the near future. Closings for units at Star Lofts on the Bay began towards the beginning of July. As of today, there have been a total of 18 recorded closings with the last one being recorded on August 14, 2007. Not one other unit has been recorded in over a month. I think it is safe to say that closings have slowed to a halt.
Star Lofts on the Bay is a boutique building with only 48 units in the entire building. The 18 recorded closings, however, indicates that 62.5 percent of the building has not closed. That is incredibly shocking!
There are currently a total of 14 units at Star Lofts on the Bay listed for sale in the MLS. Six of the units listed in the MLS, however, do not correspond with the units numbers of the ones that have closed. This means that either the units have closed but the records have not been updated to reflect this fact or these units were listed on the MLS without actually having closed on them. It is not uncommon to see condos listed on the MLS for sale prior to the contract holder closing on them. It’s not supposed to happen but it does. It can take up to three weeks for closings to be recorded so perhaps a few of these units closed within the past three weeks.
Below you will see the 18 units that have closed at Star Lofts on the Bay. Next to each unit number you will see the number of bedrooms for that unit, the purchase price and the current list price of the unit on the MLS.
As you can see, the preconstruction prices for units at Star Lofts on the Bay were very high and the price of units currently listed for sale are even higher. The average price per square foot of condos currently listed is over $540. Good luck getting that! If these units were to be auctioned, I don’t think anyone would pay more than $270 per square foot. The studio units might go for around $300 per square foot but that’s the only exception, in my opinion. The 2 bedrooms aren’t true two bedrooms. Because it is a loft building, the units are open without any walls to separate the bedrooms.
Star Lofts on the Bay is a waterfront building situated along Biscayne Bay at 700 NE 25 Street. It is located exactly five blocks south of Platinum Condominium. As is the case with Platinum Condominium, the neighborhood is the biggest deterrent for Star Lofts on the Bay. Most of the buildings in the area are old and run-down. You never want to build a mansion on a street full of average-sized single family homes. That is basically what happened here. Onyx on the Bay, which is the building next to Star Lofts on the Bay in the picture below, will also have this problem.
The picture slideshow below will show you some images that I found on the MLS of various units and the common areas of the building.
South Beach Condo Index – September 2007
As with the Brickell Key Condo Index in August, I have included some key statistics about each of the 19 developments that comprise the South Beach Condo Index. The third set of statistics below will reveal the number of available listings in each development, the percentage that those listings represent of the total number of condos in the development, the number of pending sales as well as the number of closed sales within the past month.
The average price per square foot of condos currently listed in the following 19 developments in the South Beach Condo Index has once again dropped. The August South Beach Condo Index revealed that the average price per square foot of available condos was $892.32. This month, the figure dropped to an average price per square foot of $887.60. The weight-adjusted average has also dropped from $777.86 in August to a weight-adjusted average for the month of September.
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the previous six months has gone up slightly despite very little activity. The figure has increased from $776.55 in August to $783.25 for the month of September. The weight-adjusted average is now $693.71 which is also higher than last month’s weight-adjusted average of $689.30. A significant jump in the average price per square foot of units sold at Murano at Portofino over the past six months has much to do with the increase. A closed sale seven months ago that held its average down has fallen off, thus bringing its average higher.
Murano at Portofino – 1000 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | $1,040.34
Murano Grande – 400 Alton Rd | 33139 | $761.17
Portofino Tower – 300 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | $938.87
Setai South Beach – 101 20 St | 33139 | $1,721.27
Waverly at South Beach – 1330 West Ave | 33139 | $473.83
Yacht Club at Portofino – 90 Alton Rd | 33139 | $650.36
Below you will find the new statistics that I have included in this month’s South Beach Condo Index. The first number directly to the right of each development name represents the total number of active listings. The second number, in parentheses, is the number of currently listed condos expressed as a percentage of the total number of condos in the development. The third number represents the number of pending sales while the fourth is the number of closed sales within the past month.
1500 Ocean Drive – 5 (4.46%) |0 | 1
Bentley Bay – 47 (27.65%) | 2 | 1
Bentley Beach – 15 (13.16%) | 1 | 0
Continuum South Tower – 40 (12.58%) | 4 | 0
Cosmopolitan – 28 (12.56%) | 0 | 0
Courts at South Beach – 4 (4.00%) | 0 | 0
The Decoplage – 57 (9.12%) | 2 | 0
The Floridian – 54 (16.17%) | 1 | 3
Grand Venetian – 16 (11.94%) | 0 | 0
Icon – 44 (15.22%) | 4 | 1
Il Villagio – 6 (4.72%) | 1 | 0
Meridian Lofts – 16 (14.41%) | 1 | 0
Mirador 1000 & 1200 – 105 (11.34%) | 9 | 3
Murano at Portofino – 11 (5.82%) | 1 | 0
Murano Grande – 51 (18.89%) | 1 | 3
Portofino Tower – 35 (16.99%) | 1 | 0
Setai South Beach – 30 (18.40%) | 2 | 1
Waverly at South Beach – 41 (10.28%) | 3 | 2
Yacht Club at Portofino – 39 (10.80%) | 2 | 0
There were a total of 15 closed sales from August 12, 2007 to September 11, 2007. 11 of these transactions took place in four developments: The Floridian (3), Mirador 1000 & 1200 (3), Murano Grande (3) and Waverly at South Beach (3). Four others had one closed sale each while the rest had zero. Last month there were a total of 18 closed sales over the previous 30 days. I’ve calculated that there have been a total of 161 closed sales over the past six months in the above 19 developments. That tells me that the previous four months prior to last month had an average of 32 closings each. The recent closed sales figures reveal that there has been a huge drop-off in activity. It is difficult to say, however, how much of this is due to the market slowdown and how much is due to seasonality since the summer months are the slowest for the South Florida real estate market.
The good news is that there’s now a total of 35 pending sales in the above 19 developments. I’ve definitely seen an increase in activity within the past two of months. However, I, as well as many other Realtors that I’ve spoken with, have encountered problems with condos appraising for the full purchase price. A pending sale doesn’t hold as much relevance as it once did. I wonder what percentage of the 35 pending sales will actually close.
Emerald at Brickell 3 Bedroom/4.5 Bathroom Penthouse Looks Like a Steal
This past week I came across a 3 bedroom/4.5 bath Penthouse condo at Emerald at Brickell that is priced at $975,000. I had to do a double-take when I saw the listing because I know that the 2 bedroom residences at Emerald at Brickell are listed in the $900K’s to as high as $1.45M. The listing shows this 3 bedroom/4.5 bath condo as having 2,847 square feet of living space.
I believe there are only 4 Penthouse units at Emerald at Brickell. Currently, this is the only Penthouse condo that is available on the market at Emerald at Brickell. The Penthouse units have a spiral staircase which lead to the rooftop pool and fitness center. The views from the pool deck are the best that I have seen from the pool deck of a condo building in Miami. (Unfortunately, the picture below shows only a bit of how great the views are from the rooftop).
Penthouse condos are supposed to sell towards the high end of a building’s average price per square foot. The August Brickell Condo Index revealed that condos at Emerald at Brickell had an average list price of $535.01 per square foot while condos sold over the previous six months had an average price of $474.85. This 3 bedroom/4.5 bath condo at Emerald at Brickell is listed at $342.47 per square foot. This seems like a steal to me.
I haven’t been able to get a hold of the listing agent, however. The only contact number that accompanies the listing is that of his office. I’ve called and they have told me that he is out of the country and are not sure when he will return. The price may be a misprint but if it it is not, then I assure you that this is a fantastic deal.
A 3 bedroom/3.5 bath Penthouse sold for $1.25M in October of 2006. That unit has 3,098 square feet. That amounts to $403.49 per square foot. With the views that the penthouse units offer at Emerald at Brickell, I think anything under $1M is a bargain. This is an east-facing penthouse condo by the way.
My Prediction for Ten Museum Park
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the east-facing units at Ten Museum Park will be selling 10-15 percent above where they are now by year’s end. I know, I know…the Miami condo market is in a rut. But that’s just my point. The east-facing units at Ten Museum Park are not condo units. They are lofts with 20-foot ceilings. Of all the high-rise developments in Miami, both existing and under construction, only Ten Museum Park can rightfully call themselves an ultra-luxury loft building.
Of the 200 units at Ten Museum Park, 73 of them have 20-foot ceilings with floor-to-ceiling windows. You will see that in future months there will be a premium paid for these units versus other units, not only in this building, but other buildings throughout Miami as well. I’ve already seen a lot of demand for these units in the past two months as some have been discounted due to original buyers not wanting to close. I think by the end of October the discounted units at Ten Museum Park will be nonexistent. The discounted loft units will be long gone by the end of September.
The amount of demand for units at Ten Museum Park has surprised even me, a big advocate of the development. The loft units at Ten Museum Park are truly something unique for Miami. They offer loft living combined with true luxury and gorgeous unobstructed water views, all residing in a neighborhood that, in my opinion, will be the best in Miami within the next five years.
Parc Lofts is a loft building in its truest form, but it is an industrial loft with minimal water views from higher floors, and offers no luxury. I’m a huge fan of that development as well though because it offers something very unique to the Miami market. Star Lofts, which will begin closings shortly, offers lots of luxury but resides in a neighborhood that does not even come close to the neighborhood of Park West. The prices are much higher as well. I think we’ll see a large percentage of defaulted units there. Infinity at Brickell isn’t quite as luxurious, nor does it have the unobstructed water views that the east-facing lofts at Ten Museum Park can offer, but it is probably the closest loft development to Ten Museum Park that offers the kwan: views, luxury, neighborhood and best investment dollars too.
Much of the luxury at Ten Museum Park lies in what it has to offer above other Miami developments. Primarily, it has the Clinique La Prairie spa which is based in Switzerland. By many, it is considered the best spa in the entire world. People from all over the world have been flying to Switzerland to enjoy the lavish spa treatments for which Clinique La Prairie is well known. Some of those treatments promise to slow down the aging process. The Clinique La Prairie spa at Ten Museum Park will be the first U.S. spa with their name associated.
Secondly, Michael Capponi’s name is associated with Ten Museum Park. For those not local to Miami, the Michael Capponi name is synonymous with the abbreviation V.I.P. He can get you into any party, any restaurant and any event that is well attended. Residents at Ten Museum Park will be able to count on Michael Capponi to get them V.I.P. accommodations to any social gathering that is worth attending.
I think those two aspects alone rise Ten Museum Park to the forefront of all other Miami developments. However, Ten Museum Park is also a boutique building with only 200 total units. Most other developments in Miami have well over 400 total units. There are only 6 units per floor at Ten Museum Park. The east-facing units share one bank with two elevators with one another. The units residing on the west side of the building share a bank with two elevators which accommodates four units. This is another good reason to be on the east side of the building.
Marquis – The Fourth Luxury High-Rise Building in Miami’s Park West Neighborhood
I’ve been getting a lot of interest in Ten Museum Park from both local and out-of-state buyers. Most of them inquire about the developments in the immediate vicinity to Ten Museum Park, such as 900 Biscayne Bay and Marina Blue to the south, and Marquis to the north. One can get a good idea of how beautiful 900 Biscayne Bay and Marina Blue will be when completed by looking at the current progress in development. Marquis, however, probably won’t be finished until the middle of next year and, as can be seen in the picture above, much is left to one’s imagination. (The picture was taken July 7, 2007).
I wanted to share some photos that I took of the Marquis sales center back in 2005 to show people what the building is supposed to look like once it is completed. Marquis is an ultra-luxury building and, if I remember correctly, prices ranged from $700,000 to $15M. It will have 306 ultra-luxury residences on floors 15-67 as well as a 10,000 square foot spa/fitness center and boutique hotel aspect to it with 56 hotel rooms on floors 3-14. The architect behind Marquis Residences is world-renowned Arquitectonica, which also did Marina Blue and a myriad number of luxury condo buildings throughout Miami.
There is definitely a big price difference in units located on the north side of Ten Museum Park versus those residing on the south side. Most of this is due to the close proximity that Marquis lies to Ten Museum Park. I think the spread in prices will narrow once Marquis is completed and buyers see that having a building that will be one of Miami’s most luxurious addresses isn’t such a bad thing.
Now That’s What I Call a View – Penthouse Condo at Santa Maria
Scanning through MLS listings a few weeks ago I came across an extraordinary condo for sale at Santa Maria. It is a 5 bedroom/6.5 bath condo with an amazing 6,300 square feet of interior space and a total of 3,250 square feet of terrace space. The views from this penthouse are breathtaking, to say the least. In my opinion, this is the best luxury condo currently available for sale of all Brickell condos. The price tag on this baby is a cool $5.6M.
The following description accompanies the listing:
Eclectic sophistication at Santa Maria. Unsurpassed panoramic views from the downtown skyline to Key Biscayne & the Atlantic Ocean. This luxurious 6,300 SF private penthouse boasts the largest curving terraces: 3,250 SF total. The 5BD, 6.5 Bath split floor plan affords maximum privacy for family living. Floor to ceiling glass walls, marble floors. Motorized window treatments & lighting, plasma TVs & surround sound, custom built-in bar with 2 wine coolers. A lavish master suite with his & her baths, walk-in closets & office. Secondary bedrooms with Ensuite marble baths & walk-in closets. Fully equipped kitchen with Snaidero cabinets and 3 parking spaces.
Click here to view the listing information and other pictures of this 5 bedroom/6.5 bath Penthouse condo at Santa Maria.
Ten Museum Park – Picture & Video Review of an 08 Line & the Pool Deck at Ten Museum Park
Wednesday afternoon I previewed an 08 line at Ten Museum Park for someone in Dallas, Texas looking to fly into Miami next week to acquire this property. I took a bunch of pictures and some video of the unit as well as the pool deck for him. I wanted to share this with everyone as there is much interest in Ten Museum Park.
Again, the pictures of the unit are of an 08 line. The 08 line at Ten Museum Park has 898 square feet of interior space and a 143 square foot balcony. The 05 line at Ten Museum Park has 886 square feet of interior space and a 143 square foot balcony. They are both 1 bedroom/1.5 bath units. The views from the 05 line look into the building just north of Ten Museum Park called Marquis, which will be completed in 2008.
Flip through the picture slideshow below to view 19 pictures of this 08 line unit.
From the 08 line at Ten Museum Park you will see 900 Biscayne Bay directly in front of you. As you will see, you will also have views of the American Airlines Arena, street views of Biscayne Boulevard and water views of Biscayne Bay. You can also see skyline views of South Beach in the distance. The kitchens have stainless steel appliances by Sub-Zero and Bosche as well as stainless steel countertops. There is a glass-enclosed shower with body jets and rain shower in the master bath as well as a bidet and toilet. The bathroom fixtures in the master bath are from Duravit and Dornbracht. Every floor plan at Ten Museum Park has these kitchen appliances and master bath fixtures.
As you will see, the plunge pools at Ten Museum Park are functioning but the landscaping around the outer-edge of the swimming pool deck has not yet been planted. The deck furniture and cabanas are scheduled to arrive this weekend. The rain shower area has not yet been fully completed as well. Overall, everything reminded me of something out of ancient Greece. I love it!
The green land that you see across the street from Ten Museum Park is the park formerly known as Bicentennial Park. It is now known as Museum Park and has the Miami Art Museum and the Miami Science Museum collaborating to make it into one of the best parks in the nation.
By the way, there is a big price difference in an 08 line and 05 line at Ten Museum Park. This 08 line is priced at $380,000. I can get someone an 05 line on a low floor for $315K. Residences start on the 10th floor at Ten Museum Park. The water views from an 08 line are much better, however. You can even see the pool deck from the 08 line off the balcony as you will see in the pictures and video.There are a total of 6 units per floor at Ten Museum Park. The one bedroom units are staggered along the building with the large 2 bedroom units that have 20-foot lofted ceilings. The large 2 bedrooms with 1,906 to 1,949 square feet are my favorite layouts at Ten Museum Park. I can get you one of those for $850,000. The original contract holder paid $905,000 in January of 2004. It is an 02 line with 1,949 square feet.
This was probably my fourth or fifth visit to Ten Museum Park since closings began. During one visit I saw at least 6-7 different floor plans. I think I’ve pretty much seen all of the floor plans that Ten Museum Park has to offer including the Penthouse units with the rooftop plunge pools. The views from the rooftop are simply amazing.
I can’t wait until the building is 100 percent complete. It will be an amazing building! I guess there is a lot of interest in this building because when I went up today there was a group of 9 others that wanted to see other units. (Damn! I was hoping to corner the market at Ten Museum Park…LOL). I guess the word is out.
I hope the pictures and video has satisfied everyone’s curiosity. I’ve been told that the gym, which is one of the biggest that I’ve seen in a condominium building, will be completed in about 2-3 months. The Clinique La Prairie spa should be done in about 6-8 months as far as I’ve heard. The restaurant space below Ten Museum Park is still vacant and awaiting an outstanding restaurant to fill the space. There are also condo offices available for lease at the base of Ten Museum Park. From what I’ve been told, lawyers and doctors, including plastic surgeons, have been jumping at the chance to have an office with an unobstructed view of Biscayne Bay and South Beach.
Within the next couple of days I will reveal photos and video footage of a townhouse unit at 900 Biscayne Bay, so stay tuned to the best source for Miami condo news.
Okay, okay….I’ll give you a sneak peak:
South Beach Condo Index – August 2007
I finished crunching the numbers for the second installment of the South Beach Condo Index. I discovered some very good news! List prices have come down and the average price per square foot of condo units sold in the last six months in the 19 condo buildings included in the index has gone up.
In July, we discovered that the average price per square foot for units listed in the 19 condo buildings was $913.19. This figure has dropped to $892.32 per square foot for the month of August. The weighted-adjusted average was $793.99 in July versus a weight-adjusted average of $777.86 this month.
The average price per square foot of condo units sold over the previous six months went from $772.36 in July to $776.55 in August. The weight-adjusted averages went from $686.73 in July to $689.30 in August. 8 of the 19 building had in an increase in their average price per square foot over the past month, 4 remained unchanged and 7 went down.
There were a total of 18 transactions that occurred in the following 19 buildings from July 12, 2007 to August 11, 2007. Even though the 18 transactions represent twice the number of transactions that occurred in a one-month period in Brickell, I think the overall number is pretty small. This was highly expected, however, given the current condition of the market and the fact that we’re in our off-season months. It’ll be nice to see the change in the number of transactions as we enter the winter months.
There were a total 5 closings at Waverly at South Beach; 2 closings at Icon and Mirador 1000 & 1200; and 1 closing at 1500 Ocean Drive, Continuum South Tower, The Cosmopolitan, The Decoplage, The Floridian, Il’ Villagio, Murano at Portofino, Murano Grande and Yacht Club at Portofino. The rest had zero transactions during the one-month period.
The average price per square foot of condos listed at the following 19 buildings in South Beach:
Murano at Portofino – 1000 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | $953.15
Murano Grande – 400 Alton Rd | 33139 | $777.42
Portofino Tower – 300 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | $919.28
Setai South Beach – 101 20 St | 33139 | $1,688.57
Waverly at South Beach – 1330 West Ave | 33139 | $470.84
Yacht Club at Portofino – 90 Alton Rd | 33139 | $663.66
The sold-to-listed ratio has become more favorable in South Beach as a result of list prices coming down and the average price per square foot of sales going up. The sold-to-listed ratio, expressed as a percentage, went from 18.20% in July to 15.29% in August. The weight-adjusted averages went from 14.47% to 12.12% respectively. It is good to see that list prices are falling more in line with where condos are actually selling.
The sold-to-listed ratio expressed as a percentage in the following 19 buildings in South Beach:
1500 Ocean Drive – 1500 Ocean Dr | 33139 | 22.20%
Bentley Bay – 520 & 540 West Ave | 33139 | 25.49%
Bentley Beach – 101 Ocean Dr | 33139 | (2.79%)
Continuum South Tower – 100 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | 11.46%
Cosmopolitan – 110 Washington Ave | 33139 | 10.88%
Courts at South Beach – 140 Jefferson Ave | 33139 | 17.96%
Decoplage – 100 Lincoln Rd | 33139 | 17.75%
Floridian – 650 West Ave | 33139 | 6.18%
Grand Venetian – 10 Venetian Wy | 33139 | 26.23%
Icon South Beach – 450 Alton Rd | 33139 | 20.74%
Il Villagio – 1455 Ocean Dr | 33139 | 28.91%
Meridian Lofts – 2001 Meridian Ave | 33139 | 32.07%
