New Miami Condos – Closings Rates for January 2008
The chart below will show you the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began. Click on the following links to view the updates in November and December:
Before anybody says it, I realize that One Bal Harbour is not a “Miami Condo”. I didn’t want to change the title of the post just to reflect the fact that One Bal Harbour is located in Bal Harbour. I also didn’t want to exclude it from the list because there is much interest in One Bal Harbour, and besides, One Bal Harbour owners would criticize me for not providing an update when the closing rate has jumped since the last update.
The closing rate at One Bal Harbour has hit the 70 percent mark. This is a significant increase since last month’s update. The stock price of WCI surged about 15 percent in the regular session on Wall Street and another 19 percent in after-hours trading on Wednesday after it reported that it has successfully been able to amend its credit and loan agreements. The news story was not publicly disclosed until after the bell. There are currently 55 condo units that have not closed, according to public records. The news reveals that WCI now has a considerable amount of time to sell these last remaining condos.
Ten Museum Park has had about a 7 percent increase in its closing rate while 50 Biscayne has had about an 18 percent increase, since the December update. With the exception of One Bal Harbour, Ten Museum Park and 50 Biscayne, none of the other developments have had an increase of over 5 percent. The two new entries to this month’s update are Loft Downtown 2 and Quantum on the Bay. Loft Downtown 2 should have been included in the November update since closings began in September but it simply slipped my mind. Sporting a 74 percent closing rate, however, makes Loft Downtown 2 appear quite successful in comparison to the other Miami condos. The Grand Opening Party for Loft Downtown 2 is scheduled for Thursday evening.
Closings at Quantum on the Bay began earlier this month and as I’ve stated many times before, closings can take up to 2-3 weeks before they are recorded with the county (however, I have heard that as of January 1, 2008, this is no longer the case. A reliable source told me that a step that sometimes delays the process is no longer required. Closings should now be recorded within 1-2 days after the condo has closed. Can a title agent elaborate on this for me?). Don’t take too much away from the low closing rate at Quantum on the Bay. I mainly included it to act as a stepping stone for next month’s update and let everyone know that it is now on my radar.
Rumor Mill on the Streets of Manhattan
I arrived at La Guardia Airport in New York City on Tuesday afternoon. The good news was that the weather was fantastic. It was in the high 60s, which was unprecedented in New York City for the month of January. The weather was just what I needed after arriving in Chicago last week on the coldest day of the Winter season (I think it was something like 15 degrees below zero with wind chill). Brrrrr!!! In fact, the first thing I did when arriving in Chicago was to go to Target and buy some long underwear. It was that freakin’ cold! I used to live in downtown Chicago for 4 years so I should know cold, but that day was damn cold! Maybe living in Miami for so long has made my blood thin out a bit or something.
My arrival in New York City, however, soon turned sour after learning that my luggage was lost by American Airlines. Regardless, I checked into my hotel and tried to make the best of my trip. My luggage did finally arrive at 3am that night (the next morning).
Last week, I wrote a post mentioning that I would be in New York City from January 8-11 for the Real Estate Connect NYC 2008 Conference. I was contacted by one hedge fund analyst and two investment groups that wanted to meet me while I stayed in New York City. They each had an interest in the Miami condo market.
Today, I attended the first day of the Real Estate Connect Conference and listened to a few industry leaders speak about the market. I also picked up some great information in conversations with people in the hallways as well as the hedge fund analyst that I met with later in the evening.
Okay…enough with the boring stuff. Let’s get to the goods! The following is the rumor mill that was revealed to me throughout the day. This is just what I’ve heard. I am in no way saying that the rumors are true (although these rumors came from accredited sources).
WCI will declare bankruptcy within the next two weeks. Shares of WCI, the developer of One Bal Harbour, dropped 52.98% today on worries that WCI will declare bankruptcy. Standard & Poor affirmed WCI’s junk rating status and provided a negative outlook for the company. (Can you say “Pink Sheet”?) WCI was provided an extension until January 16, 2008. That’s a very short extension. My source disclosed to me tonight that the bank is probably finally realizing that it is in their best interest to pursue bankruptcy proceedings rather than delay the inevitable. The mathematics makes sense for the bank to do so. Most banks loaned about 65 percent of the total construction costs. As of right now, according to public records, WCI has closed 50.3 percent of the condo units at One Bal Harbour. If I were the bank holding onto the construction loan for One Bal Harbour, I would foreclose on this development immediately. The lender could at least offset their other losses with the gains they may realize with the sale of the defaulted units at One Bal Harbour. They know that it’s a strong development…I know that it’s a strong development. Until the investment funds step in, however, there’s still a lot of risk.
Marina Blue closings have been pushed back 2 months and possibly even longer. I heard this rumor when I was in Miami on Monday but I didn’t accept it until tonight. I’ve heard that Marina Blue has no clue when closings will begin. Somebody please tell me that I’m wrong! I’ve heard this one from multiple sources though.
Opera Tower is delaying closings another month. I’ve heard this one from multiple sources as well. What the hell is going on with this development? It keeps delaying its closings. Weren’t closings supposed to realistically begin around September? I was recently misquoted about Opera Tower in the papers. I was quoted as saying something along the lines that Opera Tower will have a 50 percent default rate. I actually said that Opera Tower will have at least a 50 percent default rate. Just my opinion though. Also, just my opinion is that this development is doomed. There’s a large lawsuit against the developer of Opera Tower. You may think I’m crazy but I think in six months my 50 percent default rate for Opera Tower will be considered an overzealous prediction.
Here’s the big one. Countrywide Financial Corporation is going to declare bankruptcy within the next three weeks. Countrywide has lost about 44 percent of its value within the past 5 days. Rumors around Wall Street are that this turkey is just about roasted and ready to be eaten. We should see this one fall soon…and it’ll make a huge thud on the Street when it does.
This one isn’t so much a rumor. Quantum on the Bay began closings and the development isn’t even close to being completed. (From what I’ve heard) TCO was granted in order to avoid a lawsuit pertaining to how long the development took to be completed. My guess (and only my guess) is that some money (maybe a lot) was transferred between the developer and city to get the TCO done to avoid lawsuits against the developer.
New Construction Condo Deals in the Arts District, Brickell, Downtown Miami, and South Beach
As closing dates for some of South Florida’s newest condo developments quickly approaches, the motivation from contract holders to sell is becoming increasingly apparent. I’ve been receiving a lot of phone calls and emails from contract holders, within the past couple of weeks, who are looking for me to help them find a replacement buyer.
In some cases the contract holders are willing to accept a loss on their contract price in order to retain a portion of the deposit that was made 3-4 years ago. Below you will find some of the better deals that I’ve come across:
Unit ??? – 2 bedroom/2.5 bath NW corner unit – 1,491 SF – $1.86M
Unit ??? – 2 bedroom/2.5 bath NW corner unit – 1,922SF – $3.35M
Unit ??? – 3 bedroom/3.5 bath NE corner – 3,497 SF (4 balconies) – $4.2M
If you’re a contract holder and you’re motivated to sell then feel free to email me details of your condo and the price that you are willing to accept. Most developer contracts do not allow you to market your unit outside the sales center, so I will post general information here on the blog to see if a buyer emerges.
I’ll match buyers and sellers together. The sales centers are in some cases charging higher than normal sales commissions and transfer fees which make it virtually impossible for contract holders to get their units into the hands of end-users. I’m hoping that this blog will help contract holders to get some of their money back, end-users to find a great deal and developers to have less defaulted units. The way I see it is a win-win-win situation for everyone involved.
By the way, I’ve added a link to this post on my “Deals” page and will be adding to the list above intermittently.
Quantum on the Bay – 1 & 3 Bedroom Condos Available on High Floors with Great Views
A contract holder of two condos at Quantum on the Bay contacted me a few weeks ago to let me know that she would like to find a replacement buyer for each unit.
The first is 3 bedroom/3 bath with 1,620 square feet of interior space and two large terraces. If you refer to the Quantum on the Bay website, it is the R floor plan in the north tower. The unit is located on the 34th floor and will have unobstructed views of Biscayne Bay. She is asking $627,000, or $387 per square foot, for this 3 bedroom condo. I think this is a fantastic price for a 3 bedroom condo on such a high floor.
The second unit she has under contract is a 1 bedroom + den/1.5 bath condo with 935 square feet of interior space and a large terrace. It is the P floor plan. This condo is on the 37th floor and will offer water views off the terrace. She is asking $372,000, or $398, per square foot, for this 1 bedroom condo.
Each condo at Quantum on the Bay comes with one parking space. An additional parking space will cost $35,000.
Contact me if you or someone you know is interested in either or both of these units.
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
Quantum on the Bay – 2 Bedroom + Den/2.5 Bath
I was contacted last Friday by a lady who is looking to sell her 2 bedroom + den/2.5 bath in the north tower of the development known as Quantum on the Bay. She got in at original pricing and is looking to sell her unit prior to closing. The condo unit that she has under contract is the L floor plan which, in my opinion, is the best floor plan in the entire north tower. It offers unobstructed views of Biscayne Bay and overlooks the swimming pool. It is a large corner unit with 1,460 square feet of interior space and a 237 square foot wrap-around terrace.
The Quantum on the Bay website is a bit confusing when you view the floor plans. For some reason it decided to have the building site plan point east rather than north. Biscayne Bay would be located where the word “residence” is in the picture below.
The purchase price of the unit in question was $512,000, or $351 per square foot. She is looking to sell it for $575,000, or $394 per square foot, and do a simultaneous closing on the unit. You won’t find a better deal in the developer’s resale program since the developer requires that all units are priced at a minimum of 16 percent above the contract holder’s purchase price. In this instance, the price would need to be set at a minimum of $593,920. This is a great opportunity for someone looking to live at Quantum on the Bay after closing.
If you, or anyone you know has an interest in this condo at Quantum on the Bay, let me know and I will put you in touch with the contract holder.
To Close or Not to Close? – Tough Decision Ahead for Preconstruction Contract Holders as Closing Dates Approach
Closing dates are quickly approaching for preconstruction condo holders in several big name developments. Closings continue at Midtown 2 while closings at Latitude on the River and Ten Museum Park began a few weeks ago. Closings at Opera Tower and Onyx on the Bay should begin later this month.
I’m sure a good number of these contract holders have asked themselves whether or not they should close. Most have probably even crunched some numbers to figure out what they should do. With deposit money equal to 20 percent of the total purchase price at stake, it is a very important decision.
The question on everyone’s mind is what percentage of these condo units are owned by investors versus those who intend to occupy the unit. An even better question though is of the investor-owned units, what percentage are owned by people who were looking to flip their unit prior to closing versus those intending to hold long term.
Those who were looking to flip their condo prior to closing most likely had their unit in the developer’s resale program. Each resale program is a bit different and the fees required to resell the unit can vary greatly. Most charge a 6 percent commission as well as a transfer fee which I’ve seen range from as little as .75 percent to as high as 7 percent. For example, Ten Museum Park charges a .75 percent transfer fee, or 6.75 percent when including the commission, while Opera Tower charges a 7 percent transfer fee, or a total of 13 percent when including the commission.
I think Ten Museum Park might have a few forfeited deposits but nothing too serious. It gave contract holders another option besides walking away from their entire deposit. They are allowing contract holders to accept a loss but still get back a portion of their deposit money. This past week I had a client who purchased a unit at Ten Museum Park from a contract holder for $55,000 less than what it was purchased for in January of 2004. The contract holder also paid the 6.75 percent fee which totaled $61,087.50. Of the $181,000 that the contract holder laid down as a deposit, they will see $64,912.50 at closing. It’s a big loss but it is still better than walking away from the entire 20 percent.
Buildings like Opera Tower and Quantum on the Bay, however, are not giving their contract holders many options. They aren’t allowing people to take a loss until after closing. In fact, at Quantum on the Bay, it is required that you list your unit at a minimum of 16 percent above the purchase price. That is insane! Who is going to buy that? You might as well not have your unit in the resale program because it won’t sell. Quantum on the Bay charges a total of 12 percent in fees to resell a unit in their resale program.
Of course, contract holders could do a simultaneous closing to avoid these heavy transfer fees. However, most first time investors are unaware that this option exists. Even if they are aware of this option, they still need to find a replacement buyer or hire a real estate agent to help find one for them.
Time is running out and many are asking whether it is better to close on their unit or walk away from their 20 percent deposit. Keep in mind that most developers charge a developer’s fee which is due at closing. This fee is typically 1.75 percent of the purchase price. Also, units come “decorator-ready” so additional money will be required if you want to have the option of renting it out in case it doesn’t sell. Too many times I have seen people hope that they could quickly flip the unit after closing rather than invest additional money into the unit. The unit ends up sitting on the market for six months and then they decide that they’ll have to rent it out. They would have saved themselves a lot of money if they had prepared to have the option of renting the unit at the beginning rather than wasting six months. You’ll need to spend money to install floors, window treatments, light fixtures and to have the walls painted since most come with the walls only primed.
A lot of people will end up pulling money out at closing to pay for these expenditures. For example, someone might choose to do 90 percent financing so that they can get 10 percent back at closing. That 10 percent will pay the developer’s fee, closing costs and expenses for flooring, window treatments, light fixtures, etc. The money will also help pay the mortgage until the condo is either sold or rented. Unfortunately, in recent times, 90 percent financing isn’t as readily available as it was in the past.
Crisis Looming in the Arts District of Miami?
I busted out my camcorder today and headed out to beautiful Margaret Pace Park to take in the nice Memorial Day scenery. Okay, okay…so I had another agenda on my mind. I wanted to give everyone a firsthand look at the condo developments in Edgewater Miami along North Bayshore Drive.
Margaret Pace Park is a large park situated along Biscayne Bay from NE 17th Street to NE 20st Street. (The picture above doesn’t quite encompass the entire park). A variety of activities can be enjoyed there such as tennis, volleyball, basketball, running/walking/jogging, BBQing and condo construction watching. Along this park, from NE 17th Street to NE 20th Street, there are three major condo developments under construction: Opera Tower, The 1800 Club and Quantum on the Bay. Combined, these three condo developments will bring a total of 1,856 new condo units to the Miami real estate market by year’s end. That is just within three blocks! The picture slideshow below will show you a variety of pictures that I took of these three condo developments. The video footage that I shot can be found at the end of this post.
OPERA TOWER Opera Tower, located on the corner of 17th Street and North Bayshore Drive, will bring a total of 635 new condo units to the Miami real estate market. Closings are scheduled to begin in July.
THE 1800 CLUB The 1800 Club, which stretches from 18th Street to 19th Street along North Bayshore Drive, will bring a total of 469 new condo units. Closings are likely to begin around September.
QUANTUM ON THE BAY Quantum on the Bay, which is comprised of two towers and stretches from 19th Street to 20th Street along North Bayshore Drive, will bring a total of 752 new condo units to the Miami real estate market. Closings will likely occur by year’s end.
Last week, The New York Times published an article entitled, “As Condos Rise in South Florida, Nervous Investors Try to Flee”, which discusses how panicked investors are increasingly looking for ways to get out of their preconstruction contracts. When those hopes vanish, many end up walking away from hefty deposits. The article notes that an attorney in Boca Raton, Florida receives two to three phone calls a day from investors looking for some way out of their contract. A second attorney, working on behalf of developers in Miami, also added that “in some projects, up to 20 percent of buyers want their money back”. The article states that 8,000 new condos units are expected to be completed by the end of the year in Miami-Dade County alone. Another 12,000 condo units are expected to be completed by the end of 2008.
It seems that Opera Tower, The 1800 Club and Quantum on the Bay will represent a little over 20 percent of the 8,000 new condo units mentioned in the article for 2007. That is a huge chunk, especially when those units are located within three blocks of one another.
There will definitely be some great deals available in the coming months in Edgewater, as well as other Miami neighborhoods. I will do my best to report these deals as I find them. If you, or anyone you know, purchased a preconstruction condo and is looking to find a replacement buyer to close, please feel free to contact me.
The video below will show you the footage that I shot of Opera Tower, The 1800 Club and Quantum on the Bay. Notice how close the buildings are to one another.
The following is a video of Margaret Pace Park. The park runs along Biscayne Bay, so any condo units facing east in any of the buildings directly across from the park will have unobstructed water views.
Judgment Day Just Around the Corner for the Miami Condo Market
There are a number of premier condo buildings that are scheduled for completion in the next six months throughout Miami. These include, but are not limited to, the following:
It will be interesting to see, in the coming months, where prices will go from here. The number of distressed properties has been climbing throughout Miami-Dade County and that number should escalate as these new units hit the market. A year ago properties in Miami were selling like hotcakes. 12 months later the market has cooled considerably in Miami, as has the overall national real estate market. Vulture capitalists have been circling the skies of Miami for over two years, waiting for the right moment to swoop in and scavenge the real estate market here in Miami. 12 months ago vulture capitalists were told that their moment would never come as some real estate markets, throughout the United States, turned in double-digit growth. However, the next six months might be just the moment that they have been waiting for as national foreclosure filings has increased 35 percent over the previous year, according to RealtyTrac. Coupled with the increasing number of new properties that will come on board in the coming months, Miami may be ripe for the picking. The question is “Will the vulture capitalists provide a cushioned bottom for the inevitable judgment day that awaits the condo market?”. “Can their deep pockets provide the support that this market needs or will we find out just how deep the rabbit-hole goes?”
As the day of judgment comes we, here at Miami Condo Investments, will be ready to seek out the best opportunities and pass them along to our faithful blog subscribers. We plan to provide a complete analysis on all condo investment opportunities that meet our criteria, along with a comparative market analysis, pictures of the properties and, in some cases, video so our subscribers can fully grasp the opportunity.
