The following data was collected on November 18, 2007. It took me a while to get everything up due to the holiday and work. I made a correction to October’s data. The average price per square foot of closed sales over the previous six months at Vue at Brickell was previously stated at $364.32. The correct figure should have been $469.93. The correction has been made and the overall average for closed sales in Brickell was adjusted to $481.69 instead of $475.16.
The average price per square foot of condos listed has once again dropped this month to $512.14 from last month’s figure of $518.91. The weight-adjusted average also dropped to $509.24 per square foot from last month’s figure of $521.29.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
Someone recently commented that the average price per square foot of closed sales statistic doesn’t provide much insight due to the lack of activity in the Miami real estate market. This is quite true. List prices need to come down more in order for buyers to be enticed into buying. The condos that have been selling lately are the ones that are aggressively priced. Once each building has at least 5 or more closed sales then the average will begin to show more insight. Below you will see the total number of closings within the past six months in each condo development:
As you can see all of the buildings except One Miami and Neo Vertika have 4 or less closings. The lack of closed sales doesn’t make for an informative average. Nonetheless, I will continue to provide this statistic in hopes that the peak-season months will bring in more closed sales. I have definitely seen more interest within the past couple of weeks. The average price of condos sold over the past six months has gone down to $472.80 from last month’s figure of $481.69. Emerald at Brickell hasn’t had any closed sales within the past six months. The drop would have been less if the average for Emerald at Brickell would have remained the same at $523.78. If that were the case then the average price of condos sold over the past six months in Brickell would have been $475.80.
Average price per square foot of condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:
Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $283.10
Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $400.00
Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $422.66
The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $684.44
The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $575.90
The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $395.54
Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $403.39
Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $406.92
Below you will find some additional statistics:
As with last month, the first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. The Club at Brickell Bay, The Mark on Brickell and The Palace are the only developments that have a higher average sales price than list price. The former two have questionable closed sales included in the six month average.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. I find this to be a healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. I would stay away from these condo developments and others that approach the 20 percent mark. The condo developments with active listings less than 10 percent are considered very safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past month. The number of pending sales has dropped this month to 49 from last month’s figure of 51. The number of closed sales within the past month has remained the same at 7, which is still the lowest that I’ve seen in Brickell within one month since I’ve been tracking this statistic.
The sixth column show you the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. As you can see, listings at Solaris at Brickell had an increase of 7.47 percent within the past month. Much of this increase is attributed to a new listing that is listed at $904 per square foot! What are they thinking? What I find to be particularly funny is that it says “Owner Hardly Motivated” in the broker remarks. Why even list it then? It is a one bedroom with 730 square feet listed for $660,000. I’m going to keep my eye on this one because I wouldn’t be surprised to see it under contract by the wrong type of buyer.
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed as a percentage. The 15.49 percent price decrease at Skyline on Brickell is mainly attributed to a closed sale at a high price per square foot that dropped off the average. The large 27.41 percent price increase at Villa Regina is legitimate. There have been two closed sales in the building within the past month and one of them was a 3,060 square foot 3 bedroom/3.5 bath condo with a direct bay view that sold for $1,480,000, or $484 per square foot.
I think next month we’ll see more activity. I did notice that Jade had 2 closed sales on November 20, 2007. Those transactions will appear on next month’s Brickell Condo Index.
Yet Another Auction
I wanted to make everyone aware of another auction that will be held December 15, 2007 at the Miami Beach Convention Center in South Beach. I’ve perused the list of condos to be auctioned and it looks like there are some quality condos on the list. Below you will find some of the condos that will be auctioned:
Vue at Brickell – Unit 3606 – 3/2 – 1,551 SF (Brickell)
Contact me if you’d like more information about this auction so I can register you. There’s a 5 percent buyer’s premium and a $5,000 cashier’s check is required the day of the auction. The balance of 5 percent of the total price will be due the day of the auction if you are the highest bidder. Inspections must be conducted prior to bidding.
The Club at Brickell Bay Association Not Paying Its Bills?
Primecast is a cable TV and Internet service company that provides these services to all residents of The Club at Brickell Bay as a part of their association fees. The following letter was delivered last week to all residents living at The Club at Brickell Bay:
IMPORTANT – PLEASE READ
October 31, 2007
Dear Unit Owner,
We appreciate your patronage and want to extend our thanks for being a customer. As you may know, Primecast and The Club at Brickell Bay Master Association have an agreement in which Primecast is to deliver video and Internet service at a discounted price to all members of the Association. Unfortunately, the Association has not performed according to the terms of that agreement, including payment for these services, despite repeated notices from Primecast. As a result, the basic video and Internet services currently being provided to all units under the agreement with the Association will be suspended, effective Tuesday, November 6, 2007.
We apologize for any inconvenience. Please contact your Property Manager with any questions regarding this suspension or call 1-866-xxx-xxxx begin_of_the_skype_highlighting 1-866-xxx-xxxx end_of_the_skype_highlighting to speak with a Primecast customer support staff member.
Sincerely,
Primecast Collections Department
Three words came to mind after I read the letter: “That would suck!”. This not only affects condo owners but also tenants who signed leases under the pretense that they would receive basic cable TV and high-speed Internet services as a part of their monthly rent. You can be certain that rental prices on future leases will readjust themselves downwards within the next couple of months.
It is no secret that The Club at Brickell Bay has a very high number of condos that have gone into foreclosure and are now bank-owned. There are also a significant number of condos that are in preforeclosure that will probably share a similar fate in the months to come. The Association is likely having difficulty meeting its monthly expenditures as a result of the lost revenue from these foreclosed units. How severe is the problem? Is a special assessment or an increase in monthly maintenance fees right around the corner at The Club at Brickell Bay?
Plaza on Brickell – 1 Bedroom/1 Bath – $282,000
The above picture of the progress at Plaza on Brickell was taken this afternoon. The weather was just perfect today, as it has been for the past four days. 80 degrees, no humidity and clear skies! What more can you ask for in November?
Plaza on Brickell is scheduled to begin closings in January of 2008. I’m a fan of this development for two reasons: price and location. Well, actually three. I also like the commercial aspect of the development on the ground floor along Brickell Avenue. I’ve been told that these spaces have already been accounted for and that a few fantastic restaurants and cafes will open there. It will nicely compliment the shops and restaurants at Mary Brickell Village which are only a few short blocks away. City living is finally beginning to transform Miami.
Someone contacted me a few weeks ago who has a 1 bedroom/1 bath condo under contract at Plaza on Brickell. He went to contract on the unit the first day that sales began. The condo has 838 square feet of interior space and a 130 square foot balcony. The unit is located on the northwest corner of the 851 tower, which is the taller of the two towers, and is situated above the 20th floor. The floor plan of the available condo is below:
The contract holder of this condo at Plaza on Brickell is looking to sell it for $282,000, or $337 per square foot. Units at Plaza on Brickell come move-in ready. Contact me with any questions or if you have an interest in acquiring this condo.
Will History Repeat Itself in Miami?
Earlier this week, I showed a few condos at Villa Regina to a lady who has owned a unit in the building since 1983. She and her husband purchased their condo in November of that year. She told me that for the first year and a half to two years only 25 condos were owned of the 208 total units. The bust had happened and nobody wanted to buy. The developer, Nicholas Morley, eventually went under and the building was later taken over by the FDIC. Nicholas Morley, was a big-time developer back then who was the equivalent of today’s Jorge Perez or Ugo Columbo.
She said that nobody would touch Villa Regina with a ten-foot pole for the first two years after she purchased because the building was either in receivership, meaning that it was undergoing foreclosure proceedings, or it had already been foreclosed upon. As a result, the common areas were under-maintained. The building didn’t have any security, air conditioning in the hallways, a concierge in the lobby nor valet service.
Before the building went into receivership, she, her husband and the condo owners who represented the other 24 units met each month to resolve the problems. They wanted answers. No, in fact, they wanted action. Each month, the condo board sent requests to the developer stating that they themselves would pay to have the building maintained 100 percent. The developer never answered their pleas.
After Villa Regina was foreclosed upon, there were rumors that Nicholas Morley wished to acquire the building from the FDIC for 10 cents on the dollar. The condo board sent letters to the FDIC to prevent this from happening. Nicholas Morley had made them suffer long enough and they didn’t wish to take any chances.
An investment group stepped up to the plate and purchased the remaining units at Villa Regina from the FDIC, a few years after she and her husband had purchased their condo. She stated that “almost overnight, there was interest in buying condos at Villa Regina”. I asked her for how much the investment group purchased the remaining units. She didn’t know but guessed that it was around 50 cents on the dollar. The level of maintenance that was initially promised had finally been restored. People wanted in because the dark cloud that hung over Villa Regina had been lifted. The investment group was then able to sell the remaining units for a profit.
It was especially interesting to hear, from the above source, that the building fell into the hands of the FDIC. This indicates to me that the bank which loaned the money to the developer also went under as well. I don’t expect buildings in Miami on the horizon, however, to fall into the hands of the FDIC for too long, if at all. The world is too widely connected nowadays. Information exchanges hands at such a rapid pace. Investment groups will act much faster in today’s era than that of the 1980s. If a bank yells, “Help!”, several investment groups will be there to say, “Help has arrived, but how bad do you need it?”.
There’s been talk that the current boom and bust in Miami is worse than had existed in the early 1980s. I’ve advised my readers time and again to watch out for the new digs. If you feel like buying, then look for those buildings that were built prior to 2000. They have much more stability because most units in those buildings are owner-occupied. Investors/speculators flocked to the new buildings and those that were yet to be built. The possibility of the above occurring in a new condo development in Miami is likely within the next couple of years. That’s why I’ve been keeping a close eye on each new development’s ability to close units. If you are interested in buying in a new development then you must be aware of the default rate that is occurring there. Those with a default rate higher than 30 percent, in my opinion, will be ones to stay away from until much of this excess supply is purchased.
The oversupply problem in Miami does indeed currently exist and is worse than that which existed in the early 1980s. However, the level of demand that currently exists far outpaces that of which was evident in that decade. Miami is now on the map. Miami now has world-wide attention. The strength of foreign currencies relative to the U.S. Dollar has made it more alluring for foreigners to buy here. It has also become a mecca for second-home buyers, retirees and those who wish to live in tropical climes throughout the year.
The opening lines of the movie Armageddon says, “It happened before. It will happen again. It’s just a question of when”. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself in Miami and, if so, then to what extent.
Brickell Condo Index – October 2007
As I mentioned in a previous post, The Sail on Brickell will no longer be included in the Brickell Condo Index. I also made a change to the way that the statistics in the third section of the index are presented. It should now be much easier to make sense of the monthly figures. This came as a suggestion from a reader (Thank you!). My comments on this month’s numbers are also found towards the bottom of this post.
The average price per square foot of condos listed has dropped this month to $518.91 from last month’s figure of $525.88. Last month, The Sail on Brickell had an average list price of $507.11 per square foot, so the drop would have been greater had it been included this month and its average remained around the same. The weight-adjusted average also dropped to $521.29 per square foot from last month’s figure of $530.15.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the past six months actually went up this month to $481.69 from last month’s figure of $467.47. The increase would have been less had The Sail on Brickell been included. Last month, it had an average of $386.41 per square foot. If its statistic remained the same, the average would have been $476.39 per square foot. Much of the increase is also attributed to The Mark on Brickell which I will discuss below. The weight-adjusted average went up to $495.31 per square foot from last month’s average of $486.30.
Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:
Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $454.32
The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $660.39
The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $589.06
The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $388.54
Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $475.30
The numbers below are a bit difficult to read but if you save and open the picture file it should make it easier.
The first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, found above, expressed as a percentage. You will notice that Emerald at Brickell, The Club at Brickell Bay, The Mark on Brickell, The Palace and Vue at Brickell are the only developments that have a higher average sales price than list price.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. I find this to be a healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. This is a very unhealthy figure and should act as a warning sign. Is it coincidence that Jade, The Club at Brickell Bay and Vue at Brickell, which have all been riddled by mortgage fraud appear in red? I think not! I think this statistic is highly important. It provides great insight as to which condo developments will be next to have price cuts and those that may actually go up in price in the coming months. A leading indicator, if you may.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past month. As I mentioned, last month a large portion of the pending sales at The Club at Brickell Bay are very old. Only three of them have been pending for five months or less. It is good to see, however, that each development has at least one pending sale. The number of closed sales within the past month has dropped to seven, which is its lowest point since I began tracking this statistic. Not good…not good at all!
The sixth column show you the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. As you see, The Vue at Brickell had a price drop for condos listed of 8.57 percent. Much of this is attributed to the ever-growing number of short-sale and foreclosure units in the building. In fact, I have counted 24 units in the MLS that fit this bill. That represents 7.43 percent of the overall building. Yikes!
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and last month’s expressed as a percentage. The 17.54 percent price increase over last month’s statistic at The Mark on Brickell jumped out at me. Of course, I had to investigate. The good news is that I didn’t find any fraudulent transactions that have occurred within the last month. Thank God! The bad news, however, is that I did discover two transactions that closed in June that I didn’t notice before that appear to be fraudulent. You be the judge! A 2 bedroom/2 bath with 1,200 square feet that was listed at $890,000 closed for $845,000, or $704 per square foot, on June 30, 2007. Another 2 bedroom/2 bath also with 1,200 square feet that was listed for $850,000 closed for $840,000, or $700 per square foot, on June 6, 2007. In each case, the listing agent was also the buyer’s agent. In the second case, the unit previously closed in January of this year for a price of $560,000. Looks like fraud, smells like fraud…what do you think? The average price increase also became more pronounced at The Mark on Brickell because a few other sales that sold in the $300’s and $400’s per square foot fell off the average.
The large drop in prices, over the past month for condos sold over the previous six months, at Neo Vertika were mainly a result of the unit that my client closed on a few weeks ago for $242 per square foot.
Sunday Afternoon Bicycle Ride Through Brickell and Downtown Miami
Last week, I purchased a new road bike. My hope was to not only get a good cardio workout while cycling but also to get some great pictures of Miami and South Beach condos while doing so. My goal today was to get some shots of the condo developments in Brickell and Downtown that were either recently completed or will be completed within the next year. Unfortunately, it was a very cloudy day as you will see below.
Closings at Plaza on Brickell will likely begin in January. This development will add 1,000 new units to the Brickell condo market.
Closings at 1060 Brickell should occur around the same time. 1060 Brickell will add 582 condo units.
Closings at Axis will likely begin around the middle of 2008. Axis will add 718 units.
Closings for 500 Brickell are scheduled for the beginning of 2008. This development will add 633 units.
Infinity at Brickell will likely be completed towards the middle of 2008. Infinity will bring 459 condo units to the market.
I forgot to get a shot of Brickell on the River South. That development will add 322 units. I also didn’t get one today for Latitude on the River but I’ve displayed pictures of that building in the past. Closings at Latitude started about two months ago. It has 455 condo units.
Asia is located on Brickell Key. It is the only development under construction there. It will add 123 condo units when it is completed in the first half of 2008.
Closings at 50 Biscayne began about a week and a half ago. I walked in the lobby last week and it is gorgeous. I didn’t have my camcorder with me at the time, however. I will try to get a video and picture tour of the building within the next week. 50 Biscayne has 529 condo units.
Closings at Loft Downtown 2 are scheduled to begin this month. In fact, they may have already begun. It will add 496 units.
Everglades on the Bay (now known as Vizcayne) likely won’t be completed until the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009. It will add 866 condo units to the Miami real estate market.
I’ve been told that closings at Marina Blue are scheduled to begin November 1, 2007. I don’t see that happening so soon but maybe I’m wrong. My guess would be sometime in December or January. Marina Blue will add 516 units.
900 Biscayne Bay will likely be completed in the first half of 2008. It will add 516 units as well.
Closings for units at Ten Museum Park began about three months ago. Closings are still underway. It has 200 units. Marquis probably won’t be completed until the end of 2008 to beginning of 2009. It will bring 306 units to the Miami condo market.
In conclusion, there might be a tiny bit of an inventory problem in Miami (that was me being sarcastic). I also didn’t include Icon Brickell and Epic Miami which will be completed in 2009. Icon Brickell will add 1,816 units while Epic will add 966 units. The condo developments in the Arts District will also add a little over 2,000 new units to the market within the next six months.
Neo Vertika Short-Sale Becomes a Closed Sale
The 2 bedroom + den/2 bath loft at Neo Vertika that I wrote about on September 4 closed Wednesday afternoon. The unit has 1,255 square feet of interior space, 20-foot ceilings, a large balcony that extends the length of the unit and comes with the upgraded stainless steel appliance package. Since it has never been lived in before it comes “decorator-ready”. This south-facing two-story loft is located on the 29th and 30th floors and overlooks the swimming pool and has obstructed views of Biscayne Bay. The unit was sold as a short-sale so my client was able to acquire it at a great price. The purchase price was $303,800 and the appraisal came in at $445,000.
My client’s plan was to rent and hold the unit for around 2-3 years before selling it. However, I have received some interest from people wanting to look at it and possibly acquire it once he closed. I will be showing the unit to all interested parties for the next week or two. After that, my client will install the floors and likely rent it as he had planned.
The best priced D floor plan at Neo Vertika is currently listed at $450,000. My client is willing to sell his unit for $385,000, which would make it priced even better than the smaller, and less desirable, 2 bedroom C floor plan units currently available in the building.
The picture slideshow below will show you unit 2919 at Neo Vertika which is the loft that my client purchased:
I also did a video walk-through of the unit:
The following video will show you the common areas at Neo Vertika. This video was shot about 12 months ago and the common areas were not 100 percent complete at the time.
If you have an interest in viewing this unit and the building in person then contact me to schedule a showing.
Closings at Latitude on the River Faring Better Than Most Miami Condo Developments
I have been tracking closings at Latitude on the River for the past couple of months. As of two days ago, Latitude on the River has been able to close 275 of their 455 total units. The closed units represent roughly 60 percent of the overall building. Closings are usually recorded within one week but can sometimes take 2-3 weeks before they are finally recorded.
The 60 percent may not seem like very much given that closings began July 27 of this year. However, Latitude on the River has had a higher closing percentage than other developments that began closings earlier than them such as Onyx on the Bay, Star Lofts on the Bay, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park.
The majority of closings at Latitude on the River occurred within the first four weeks. In fact, about 66 percent of their total closings occurred within those first 28 days. Closings have not completely tapered off, however. With the exception of the tenth week, they have been able to close over 10 units per week. The tenth week only had three recorded closings but additional closings likely occurred but just haven’t been recorded yet.
The fact that Latitude on the River has fared better than other developments that have begun closings as of late is the good news. The bad news is that there haven’t been any pending or closed sales since closings began. There are currently 70 listings available for sale and 77 available for rent. The 70 units available for sale represents about 25 percent of the closed units. There is likely much overlap in the units available for rent and sale. There have been 7 units that have successfully rented since closings began and 6 that are currently pending in the MLS.
Prices in the MLS for units at Latitude on the River have continued to slide over the past couple of months and are moving towards a point where a pending sale is likely to occur within the next 30 days. The best priced 1/1 is listed at $254,900 while the best priced 2 bedroom, which is actually the largest 2 bedroom in the building at 1,300 square feet of interior space, is listed at $399,999.
The problem is that foreclosures and short-sales in other developments throughout Brickell that are closer to the bay have increased within recent months. They are offering finished units at prices that are similar, or in some cases, better than those offered at Latitude on the River. It will be interesting to see where prices throughout Brickell end up once the dust settles.
