This is a follow-up post to one I wrote a few weeks ago entitled “Advice to Miami Condo Sellers“. That post has become one of my most widely read posts.
I’ve always been more of a buyer’s agent than a seller’s agent. It’s been that way ever since I started in this business. I’ve never been much of a salesman though. In fact, I initially didn’t even want to become a real estate agent because I always analogized the phrase “real estate agent” to “sales person”. The latter always made me cringe. Thoughts of “selling somebody” or “making a sale happen” didn’t favor well with me.
I finally realized, however, that people will always have a need to buy housing and finding buyers the best deals is a niche within itself. I figured that with my financial background I could provide a unique perspective and a more in-depth analysis of the market than most agents. This blog is a natural extension of that mindset years ago.
Nowadays, it seems like everyone is looking for a deal and the right opportunity to buy in Miami. The million dollar question that I get from the people who contact me each day is “When will be the best time to buy a condo in Miami?”.
The answer to that question depends on your objectives and knowledge of the Miami condo market. If you’re an investor “looking to buy a condo in a good neighborhood of Miami at a significant discount” then the answer to that question is as vague as your objective – “Nobody knows!”. That’s like saying that you want to buy the best stock at the bottom of a bear market. Good luck!
Some of the people who contact me have only been to Miami once or twice in their life. Some haven’t ever visited Miami, but have read about Miami and have seen the gorgeous palm trees and majestic waters in movies. For those of you, the opportunity to buy a Miami condo at the “best” time won’t ever come. You need to have knowledge of what you want before you can ascertain the best time to buy it. A knowledgeable Realtor can’t even point you in the right direction without first knowing which direction that might be.
Having an objective like wanting to buy a two bedroom condo at Ten Museum Park with a direct bay view on a high floor at a 20 percent discount of 2004 prices is much better. An opportunity like that may or may not present itself but at least you know what you want and a local Realtor will be much better equipped to help you find it.
Keep in mind that the “market bottom” for the Miami condo market might not necessarily be the best time to buy for people with such a pinpoint objective as the one above. These people might miss out on better opportunities that will have passed them by. For example, take the 2 bedroom condo going up for auction at Villa Regina that I mentioned in yesterday’s post. That condo may very well sell for the best price per square foot of any condo at Villa Regina from here on out. Someone looking to buy a condo at Villa Regina, but is waiting for the condo market to bottom in Miami, might miss out on a fantastic opportunity. It may or may not end up being the best deal at Villa Regina but keep in mind that only one person will buy the bottom. Wouldn’t you be happy though knowing that you bought at a 20 percent or 30 percent discount or whatever it may be?
My advice for those buyers who will be end-users is the same. Know what you want and the price point that will make you happy. Opportunities to buy condos in Miami at a discount with built-in equity are already present. Foreclosures, auctions and short sales all offer these opportunities. Being happy with the condo in which you will live should be the primary concern for end-users, not price. Having a cushion to weather the storm that lies ahead is an added bonus.
There is no doubt that condo prices will correct themselves from the highs that we experienced in 2005 and beginning of 2006. In my opinion, they already have. I feel that we’re already back at 2004 prices. Every week I get a number of calls and emails from people who bought preconstruction condos as resales in 2005 and beginning of 2006. They want to know if there is any chance to break-even if they close on their preconstruction condo contracts and sell at current market prices. The answer is overwhelmingly “NO”. The current market price is usually at or slightly below the amount of their deposit money, which the majority of the time is 20 percent. This tells me that we are already at least 20 percent off the highs.
The inventory problems of the Miami condo market is old news. Demand dried up over a year ago as a result of this news. The real estate market, however, is not as liquid and as efficient as the financial markets. Buyers have already processed the news about the Miami condo market. Sellers have begun to process the news but can’t simply hit the best bid to get themselves out. Those selling existing condos can, however, lower their prices.
The fate of the preconstruction condo market is different though. The news came out over a year ago but we’re all waiting for the condos to close to see where they will get priced. Nobody knows! It’s like trading has been halted, due to news, and we’re all standing around waiting for the market to reopen.
As a side-note to investors and second home buyers unfamiliar with Brickell, if you’re looking to buy a newly constructed condo in a bayfront building within the next 7 months then you won’t find any. Of the five developments scheduled for completion within the next 7 months in Brickell, none of them are bayfront buildings. Only two, Latitude on the River (which has begun closings) and Brickell on the River South, are waterfront buildings. They both, as their name implies, reside on the Miami River. Of the four developments scheduled for completion in 2009, only two, Icon Brickell and Epic, are bayfront developments. After those are completed only one bayfront parcel will be left in Brickell. Villa Magna was planned for development on that parcel but the project was recently canceled and the fate of that land is still up in the air.
As for the four buildings being developed in the Downtown Miami neighborhood known as Park West, none are bayfront but they might as well be. Ten Museum Park, Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne and Marquis each reside directly behind Biscayne Boulevard and what was formerly known as Bicentennial Park, both of which won’t obstruct views of the bay as long as they are owned by the city of Miami.
Marina Blue – Closings to Begin Towards the End of September 2007
I was notified today that closings at Marina Blue are scheduled to begin towards the end of September. Marina Blue is a 60-story luxury high-rise building going up in the neighborhood known as Park West. The fantastic thing about Marina Blue is that every unit has a beautiful view of Biscayne Bay.
As closing dates approach, there are some great opportunities to own a condo at Marina Blue. As in other developments, there are investors who purchased condos at Marina Blue in hopes to flip them prior to closing. As everyone knows, the market has changed dramatically in the past two years and many of these speculators are content to accept a loss on their deposit to avoid having to close.
I received a phone call last weekend from someone who placed a one bedroom condo under contract at Marina Blue for $296,000 as a resale. The condo is on the 15th floor and has 845 square feet of interior space. He was still in his 15-day rescission period and wanted to know if I felt that he got a good price. I told him that he got a great price. In my opinion, anything under $300,000 is a solid buy at Marina Blue. The long-term prospects for that neighborhood are great. I feel that one bedroom condos at Marina Blue will easily rent for $1,700 per month.
Currently, there’s a one bedroom for sale at Marina Blue that is on the 17th floor. It is listed at $320,000. The condo has 845 square feet. I think this unit can be acquired for under $300,000.
There’s also a 2 bedroom at Marina Blue on the 9th floor that is listed for $455,000. This condo has 1,327 square feet of interior space. If you can get this condo for around $430,000 then I think that your long-term prospects are bright.
In the upcoming years, I feel that Park West will be the best condo neighborhood in all of Miami. It was developed to be Miami’s equivalent to Manhattan’s Park Avenue.
At the beginning of July, I published a post about the neighborhood of Park West and the four luxury high-rise buildings being developed in that neighborhood. The post was entitled “Pictorial & Video Review of The Fantastic Four in Miami“. Take a look at that post for more information about the Downtown Miami neighborhood of Park West and what it has to offer. You will also see some pictures and a video of Marina Blue as it stood towards the beginning of July.
1/1.5 @ Ten Museum Park for $310,000 – Reduced Again!
Someone contacted me last week to see if I could help them find a buyer for their 1 bedroom/1.5 bath condo at Ten Museum Park. He is perfectly able to close but would rather sell it to an end-user than carry it for a while. If he closes on the unit though then he will end up holding onto it. His closing date is approximately 30 days from now but he thinks that he could have it extended if an interested buyer surfaces.
His condo has 886 square feet of interior space and a 143 square foot terrace. It is an “05” line. The floor plan is below.
As of now, the best priced “05” line available on the MLS through the developer is priced at $400,000. Here is your opportunity to buy at Ten Museum Park for much less. Make an offer today!
Advice to Miami Condo Sellers
I mentioned last week in the July Brickell condo index that only 9 closed condo sales occurred from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007, in the 18 buildings that comprise the Brickell Condo Index. A question was left for me in the comments section of the post about whether I felt that the lack of sales activity was a reflection of an overpriced condo market in Miami. A great conversation enfolded and I wanted to expand on that conversation with a post that will hopefully find its way to condo sellers throughout Miami.
In a nutshell, yes, prices do need to come in significantly in order for buyers to be enticed to buy. There are a lot of “motivated” condo sellers right now who have their units listed with a Realtor who are having a very difficult time selling their condo. However, sellers need to realize that their situation will become progressively worse as time goes by and more condo units come onto the market throughout the overdeveloped areas of Miami that stretch from Brickell to the Arts District. Your condition can easily turn from “motivated” to “desperate” within a six month time period.
I will let the numbers do the talking. Within the next 7 months there will be five new condo developments that will be completed in Brickell. These five developments are: 500 Brickell (633 units), The Plaza on Brickell (1,000 units), 1060 Brickell (582 units), Brickell on the River South (322 units) and Latitude on the River (455 units). These five condo developments will bring 2,992 new condo units to the Brickell condo market within 7 months. 12 months after that, another four developments will be completed in Brickell. These developments are: Infinity (459 units), Axis (718 units), Icon Brickell (1,816 units) and Epic Miami (966 units). These four developments will add another 3,959 new condo units to the Brickell condo market. That is a total of 6,951 new condo units within 19 months from now.
Over 6,900 new condo units within the next 19 months in Brickell! If this sentence alone doesn’t make a seller see the light then maybe the following sentences will. The Brickell condo index is currently comprised of 18 condo buildings throughout Brickell which consists of a total of 5,348 condo units. This means that within 19 months we’ll see a 130% increase in the number of units that comprise the index. The total number of condo units represented in the Brickell condo index will increase from 5,348 condo units to 12,299 condo units within a 19 month period.
That is just within Brickell. Include the developments below that are within 4 miles north of the southern tip of Brickell and conditions become far worse. These developments should be completed within the same time period. A few of these buildings such as Onyx on the Bay, Platinum Condos, Midtown 2 and Ten Museum Park have already begun closings. The 23 buildings below will add another 9,119 new condo units residing within 4 miles of Brickell within the next 19 months.
This means that within the next 19 months there will a total of 16,070 new condo units that will come onto the market in the neighborhoods of Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. The bulk of the problems will be in Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District since Brickell Key will only add 123 units once Asia is built.
Let’s assume that 30% of the condo units in the five new developments that will be completed in Brickell within the next 7 months were purchased by speculators. That is a very conservative number. I have heard people suggest that this number could be as high as 70%. Let’s use 30% though to illustrate a point in a conservative manner. That means that of the 2,992 new condo units to come onto the market in Brickell, 898 of these will be listed for sale. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there were a total of 9 closed condo sales that occurred in Brickell from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007. This means that if market conditions remain the same, and this absorption rate continues, then it will take 100 months, or 8.33 years to absorb the new inventory in Brickell. This doesn’t take into account the existing inventory of 1,550 condo units on the market at this time in Brickell. It also only includes those units in Brickell that will be completed within the next 7 months, not the units scheduled for completion 12 months after. Nor does it take into account the negative impact that the units scheduled for completion in Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District will have on the condo inventory in Brickell.
My advice to condo owners who NEED to sell is to get out now! Today, Barbara Corcoran was on the Today Show and suggested that people who need to sell now should be priced 5% below the currently best priced property in the neighborhood. She was speaking about homes and the national real estate market, but I think that this advice is a great start for condo owners in Miami. To illustrate, last week, two days after our office held an Open House/Wine Tasting at The Imperial at Brickell, a pending contract resulted on one of the three bedroom units that were showcased. It was the best priced three bedroom in the building and was the nicest as well. By the way, for those of you who haven’t heard of Barbara Corcoran before, she is often referred to as “The Queen of Real Estate”. She is a Realtor in New York who has had tremendous success and has been asked to appear on many nationally televised segments for her invaluable insight.
Sellers may not like the idea of discounting the price of their condo to 95% of the best priced unit currently listed in the building. However, they will like the alternative scenario even less if they don’t. Keep in mind that once the new condo units come onto the market, you’ll end up lowering your price to that level anyways. But at that time, you will be priced in the middle of the pack rather than at the front.
If you are a truly motivated seller, who doesn’t have an exclusive listing agreement with another Miami Realtor, and want to sell your condo before the worst begins, then contact me today so we can devise a plan to get you out of this mess before condo inventories in Miami reach nightmare proportions.
Pictorial & Video Review of The Fantastic Four in Miami
Today was a beautiful sunny day in Miami so I decided to revisit my favorite skyline-gazing spot at the southwestern tip of Watson Island, along with my trusty digital camcorder. It is the perfect location to view the progression of what I have dubbed The Fantastic Four, made up of, from left to right, Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne Bay, Ten Museum Park and Marquis. It may appear as though there are five developments but the smallest of the buildings is located further off of Biscayne Boulevard to the west. Wikipedia refers to these four developments as the Biscayne Wall, but to me it is far shy of a wall when you compare it to fully built-out skylines in cities such as New York City and Chicago.
The name The Fantastic Four came to mind though as each of these four developments are fantastic ultra-luxury high-rise buildings revitalizing the Downtown Miami neighborhood now known as Park West. Park West was recently developed to be Miami’s equivalent to Manhattan’s Park Avenue. In years to come it will become known as Miami’s luxury neighborhood. It is located directly west of I-395, also known as the MacArthur Causeway, which leads straight into South Beach.Museum Park, formerly known as Bicentennial Park, which is the green piece of land directly east of the The Fantastic Four, will be redeveloped by the Miami Art Museum and the Miami Museum of Science and Planetarium to be transformed into a world-renowned park. It may not seem like a lot of land from the picture above but it is actually comprised of 30-plus acres. The luxury condo buildings in Park West are walking distance to the American Airlines Arena, the newly constructed Carnival Center for the Performing Arts and Bayside Marketplace.
In future months, as closing dates approach, there will be many opportunities to buy into these four buildings at discounted prices. Condo units in these buildings, as well as the thousands of other units coming to market in Miami over the next 18 months, were heavily purchased by investors. Their plan was to flip each condo unit for a profit prior to closing, but demand dried and prices headed south. Many will end up walking away from 20 percent deposits and instead write it off on their taxes. Closings at Ten Museum Park have already begun and Marina Blue should begin theirs towards the beginning of August.
The following pictorial review will give you a closer look at each of these buildings as they appear today:
Note: Watson Island offers the best views of both the Miami and Miami Beach skylines. With the exception of Parrot Jungle and the Miami Children’s Museum, it is a wonder how this land has remained vacant for so long. Flagstone Property Group is supposed to develop a mix-used project known as Island Gardens, with hotel, restaurant and retail space as well as a a “50-slip mega-yacht marina that would accommodate yachts of up 450-feet long”. I haven’t heard of any progress in over twelve months and it doesn’t appear as though anyone has broken ground on the land that I stood on today.
Ten Museum Park – Pricing & Availability Update with Pictures & Video
I revisited Ten Museum Park yesterday with another client. I was able to take a few pictures and shoot a short video but our time was very limited. You can find a picture slideshow at the end of this post along with a short video clip of a unit at Ten Museum Park.
I discovered that there have been a total of seven closings so far at Ten Museum Park. I also received an update on which of the units left to close are problematic cases. They are considered problematic because the contract holder either keeps delaying their closing date and/or they have voiced a strong desire not to close. These represent opportunities as they afford the best pricing currently available at Ten Museum Park. Keep in mind that the prices below only represent the list price. They are not firm prices. Contract holders who are truly motivated or those looking to possibly walk from their deposit may be willing to take a significant loss. They were required to deposit 20 percent of the purchase price into escrow. These were originally placed under contract in January 2004.
First I will show you the 1 bedroom/1.5 bathroom units that are available at Ten Museum Park. As you can see from the floor plan above, the 08 line has a southern exposure while the 05 line has a northern exposure. The one bedrooms have 858 square feet of interior space, a 143 square foot terrace and 10-foot ceilings with floor-to-ceiling glass. The following were originally purchased in the $350,000 to $400,000 price range in January 2004.
Next, we have the smaller 2 bedroom/2.5 bathroom units at Ten Museum Park. The 07 line has a southwest exposure while the 06 line has a northwest exposure. These units have 1,239 square feet of interior space, a 122 square foot terrace and 10-foot ceilings with floor-to-ceiling glass. These were originally purchased in the $450,000 to $505,000 price range in January 2004.
Finally, we have the large 2 bedroom/2.5 bathroom units at Ten Museum Park. These units have the best water views. The view from the southeast corner is my favorite, which is the 01 line. The 02 and 03 lines have a direct east exposure while the 04 has a northeast exposure. These units have 1,949 square feet of interior space, a 192 square foot terrace and 20-foot ceilings with a split-level floor plan and floor-to-ceiling glass. These were originally purchased in the $825,000 to $995,000 price range in January 2004.
The one bedroom units at Ten Museum Park come with one parking space while all two bedroom units come with two parking spaces. There are a total of four elevators to service six units per floor. The maintenance fee is 55 cents per square foot. The Clinique La Prairie spa will be located on the 8th and 9th floors of Ten Museum Park. Other amenities found on those floors include a yoga room, cardio room and weight room. The swimming pool deck has a total of five pools and Jacuzzi, cabanas and aromatherapy stations. A total of ten percent is required at contract signing with the balance due at closing.
The picture slideshow and video clip below are from one of the large 2 bedroom floor plans at Ten Museum Park. It has 1,949 square feet of interior space, a 192 square foot terrace and a split-level floor plan with 20-foot ceilings and floor-to-ceiling glass windows.
Ten Museum Park – More Opportunities as Closing Dates Approach
I met with a sales rep today who works for Ten Museum Park to go over pricing and availability for a few out-of-state clients who are interested in buying a condo unit there. I took in a lot of good information during my 30 minute meeting and want to share it with everyone. Ten Museum Park has received its TCO (temporary certificate of occupancy) and closings for units on the first 35 floors will begin shortly. I learned that the developer will grant one extension to people scheduled to close. Then, a letter will be sent out notifying the contract holder of a firm closing date. They will be charged for each day that they are unable to close at an 18 percent APR.
There are a lot of great deals currently available at Ten Museum Park. People holding contracts for condo units in the building were required to put down a total of 20% in deposit money. The first 10% was payable in January 2004. The second 10% was due in December 2004 when the building broke ground. Many of those people are currently looking for a purchaser to step in and close for them. In many cases they are willing to sell their unit at a price point that would allow them to break even or accept a small loss. This is an opportunity to get in at January 2004 pricing. The developer charges the contract holder a transfer fee of 3.75 percent and a co-broker fee of 3 percent. Most contract holders have factored in this cost to compute their break-even point. The worksheet below will show some of the deals that are available. The majority of these deals do not appear in the MLS. The data used to create this spreadsheet was provided by a sales agent working for Ten Museum Park.
The best deal in the building right now is unit 1607. As the worksheet reveals, it has a price per square foot of $363. That is remarkable for a building of this caliber!
Ten Museum Park is located in a Downtown Miami neighborhood now known as Park West. Besides Ten Museum Park, Park West will have three additions to the neighborhood in the next 12 months. These include the following:
There are a few things that I love about Ten Museum Park. One, is that it only has 200 units. I definitely wouldn’t call it a boutique building but it isn’t a monster development either. Two, the price per square foot is much lower than in these other buildings. The building was able to launch sales and begin construction in 2004, prior to when construction costs began to escalate. These other developments weren’t as fortunate and had to price their units in accordance with the higher construction costs that needed to be taken into consideration. I also love the open floor plans at Ten Museum Park. If you’re a fan of lofts then you’ll appreciate the layouts of the units at Ten Museum Park.
I learned today that when the real estate market was red hot, a few of the “04” units sold as high as $1.3M during resales. Those people are pretty screwed. Fortunately, the lender, Mellon Financial Corporation, only allowed the unit to be resold a maximum of one time. It may seem logical for some of these buyers to walk away from their deposits seeing that comparable units are now on the market at a 38% discount to what they paid. If one of the resale buyers walks away from their deposit then the initial buyer is on the hook to close. I learned, however, that if this scenario were to occur, the 20% deposit forfeited by the second buyer would be applied to the initial purchase price of the first buyer. That is a pretty sweet deal! An instant 20 percent in equity just like that.
I’ve scheduled to have a tour of Ten Museum Park late next week. I’ll be sure to take lots of pictures and shoot as much video as I can. I’m looking forward to seeing the penthouse unit with the 1,298 square foot rooftop terrace and vitality pool.
Coming Soon: Ten Museum Park
Ten Museum Park is a highly anticipated luxury condo building that will begin closings later this month. Ten Museum Park is located in the recently-dubbed neighborhood of Park West and offers spectacular views of the city, Biscayne Bay and even the ocean and South Beach from high floors. Park West is making way to be the most high-end neighborhood of Miami. Ten Museum Park is walking distance to the American Airlines Arena, Entertainment District of Miami, the newly opened Carnival Center for the Performing Arts and the shops and restaurants at Bayside Marketplace. There are also plans for Bicentennial Park, which will be renamed Museum Park Miami, located across the street in the underutilized parcel of land that you see in the picture above. $13.5M has already been allocated for the new park and the Miami Art Museum and the Museum of Science are collaborating to work on the plans. The pictures below show a model of the design for Museum Park Miami. It will be the premier public park in Miami.
Ten Museum Park will have a total of 200 units on 50 floors and has units ranging in size from 858 square feet to 4,100 square feet with either 10-foot or 20-foot ceilings. Units at Ten Museum Park will have stainless steel appliances by Bosch and Sub-Zero, high-end bathroom fixtures by Duravit and Dornbracht, glass-enclosed showers with body jets and rain shower and much, much more. Take a look at the Ten Museum Park website for more information.
Ten Museum Park will receive its TCO (temporary certificate of occupancy) in the next week or two and closings will follow soon thereafter on units located on the first 35 floors. Condo units located on floors 36-50 will begin closings in 30-60 days. There are resales currently available at Ten Museum Park. There are quite a few people holding contracts in the building that have their units priced at, or slightly higher than, what they paid for them back in January 2004 to prevent from having to close on their units.
I am eagerly awaiting to see the inside of Ten Museum Park. I will try to gain access this week and post pictures and video of what I see.
