New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for February 2008
This month, I decided to make two separate graphs to show the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began. The first graph, found immediately below, reveals the closing rates for Miami condos which had their first closing prior to November 1 2007. The condo developments are also now ordered according to when closings began, with the first to the left.
Below you will find the date that each condo development in the graph above began closings:
Not much has changed with this group of condos since the last update was provided in January. Ten Museum Park and Latitude on the River inched up about 2-3 percentage points. Star Lofts on the Bay remained the exact same and Onyx on the Bay was able to close one additional condo. The Loft Downtown 2 moved up a little over 5 percentage points and 50 Biscayne moved up almost 7 percentage points. A few different sources have told me that there have been about 200 defaulted condos at 50 Biscayne. This is in line with the 239 condos that are currently unaccounted for according to public records. Several people have left comments here stating that the developer has chosen to lease many of the defaulted condos and ride out the storm rather than sell to a bulk buyer. I’m sure other developers will follow suit, which will decrease the expected inventory levels for a few years.
Below you will find the date that each condo development in the graph above began closings:
The graph above includes a group of condos which began closings within the past three months. I was surprised to see that 1800 Club has fared the best, although it should be noted that it did begin closings first amongst this group. Brickell on the River 2 has made much progress since the end of January when closed condos represented about 4 1/2 percent. Quantum on the Bay has done well considering that it has only received a TCO on the first of its two towers. Driving by a few times within the last couple of weeks, I did notice more lights on at night than one would expect from a condo development that just started closings about a month and a half ago. Same goes with 1800 Club. With a closing rate of about 20 percent, Apogee South Beach is off to a good start. Prices there start at about $2.5M. Plaza on Brickell has also only received a TCO on the first of its two towers. We should see much improvement from most of the condo buildings in the above group within the next month or two.
You may have noticed that One Bal Harbour and Midtown 2 are not found in this month’s update. I chose not to include One Bal Harbour because the Regent condo-hotel units have now begun closings and I did not want to intermingle the two. I do know, however, that WCI Communities has been quite successful in closing units at One Bal Harbour. They’ve closed around 150-155 condos out of a total of 185. I also know that several have been reassigned and are currently under contract. I expect WCI to have only a couple developer units left at One Bal Harbour by the end of March.
I didn’t include 2 Midtown because I noticed that a bunch of deeds have been re-recorded there. It would have taken me forever to sort through that mess. The following was written along the left-hand side of the re-recorded deeds: “This deed is being re-recorded to correct vesting on title”.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing gets recorded.
Marina Blue – Closings to Begin This Week
The moment has finally arrived. Closings will begin at Marina Blue this week. I’m not quite sure which exact day they will begin but I know someone who has his closing scheduled for this Friday morning. My guess is that the first closing took place earlier today though.
I’ve been looking quite forward for Marina Blue to be completed. Architecturally, Marina Blue is my favorite of the new buildings that have arrived on the Miami condo market within the past 12 months, and of those that will arrive within the upcoming 12 months. Marina Blue is very impressive to look at while driving down Biscayne Boulevard or driving west over the MacArthur Causeway.
Everyone already knows that the views from within the Marina Blue condos are going to be some of the best in Miami. I can’t think of one other building in Miami that offers unobstructed, direct bay views from EVERY unit in the building. (Someone help me here…there has to be at least one other building in Miami that offers this). The 12 line may have slightly obstructed views but this remains to be seen.
If Marina Blue ends up meeting just 90 percent of everyone’s expectations then I think it’s going to be a winner!
Say It Aint So “O”
Yahoo News! reported earlier today that there are rumors that Shaquille O’Neal will be traded to the Phoenix Suns. I hope these rumors don’t prove to be true but it does sound like the Miami Heat will part ways with Shaq in the near future. I think everyone will agree that Shaquille O’Neal has been a great addition to the Miami community. He will definitely be missed.
Shaquille O’Neal’s Miami luxury home on Star Island, is currently on the market for $32M. There were rumors on November 1, 2007, from the South Beach Real Estate Blog that Alex Rodriguez was looking to buy Shaq’s humble abode. I heard from other sources that the deal fell apart because Alex Rodriguez’s wife wanted to be closer to her family in Coral Gables.
I haven’t fully thought this out yet, but I may, (still need to think about this one), consider stepping outside of my own personal boundaries of only listing condos and consider listing a Star Island luxury home like Shaq’s if his listing agreement expires before his home gets sold. Don’t hold me to this though because I am only contemplating it. I’m a very niche-oriented person so if I don’t return your phone calls Shaq, don’t hold it against me. I need a few days to think this one through.
Miami Condo Index – Brickell Key – January 2008
The Brickell Key Condo Index is back. I didn’t have time to provide a monthly update for December 2007. For those who have newly discovered this site, the Brickell Key Condo Index is a monthly post that provides important housing statistics pertaining to the 10 existing condo buildings located on Brickell Key. I also publish a monthly update pertaining to 17 well known buildings located in Brickell. Condos located in Downtown Miami and the Arts District of Miami will likely have their own index within the next six months. I’m just waiting for more buildings in those areas to be completed.
The average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell Key has gone down since the November 2007 update. List prices have continued to drop each month since I began this index in June 2007. At that time, the average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell was $519.97. It now stands at $486.07. That’s about a 6.5% drop in list prices in 7 months. These numbers are in line with the housing numbers that were released this past week. The weight-adjusted average also fell to $481.98 from November’s weight-adjusted average of $490.87.
Average price per square foot of Brickell Key condos currently listed on the MLS:
The average price per square foot of condos that have sold within the past six months has gone down as well. This average dropped to $416.92 per square foot from the $435.21 that we saw in November 2007. In June, this average stood at $445.59. The January average represents a 6.4% drop within the past 7 months. The weight-adjusted average also fell to $414.54 from November’s weight-adjusted average of $433.31.
The average price per square foot of condos sold within the past six months:
- Brickell Key One – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $326.88
- Brickell Key Two – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $398.70
- Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $481.29
- Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $466.49
- Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $444.20
- Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $342.72
- One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $405.28
- St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $421.25
- Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $435.42
- Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $446.98
The chart below reveals additional statistics pertaining to the 10 existing condo buildings in Brickell Key:
The first column to the right of each condo development is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. Courts Brickell Key was the only development that had a higher average sales price than list price.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. As I’ve stated before, I find this to be a very healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. Proceed with caution! Condo developments with active listings representing less than 10 percent of the overall condos are considered very safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past two months. Since I didn’t have a December update, I decided to show the number of closed sales since November 28, 2007. As you can see, there have been 9 closed sales in Brickell Key within the past two months. There are currently 28 pending sales, however, 9 of these pending sales have been pending since August 2007 or longer. A few of them have been pending for over a year. I did notice that a good portion of the other 19 pending sales went pending within the first two weeks of the new year.
The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from November and this month, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which have had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green reveal those that have had an increase. As you can see, Carbonell was the only condo building in Brickell Key that has had an increase in its average list price since November 2007. This is attributed to a penthouse condo that was listed the first week of December for around $1,500 per square foot!
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from November and this month, expressed as a percentage. Brickell Key I, Courts Brickell Key and Courvoisier Courts had average sales prices that were up from those found in November. The average at Isola dropped dramatically since November but not a lot can be made of it because only one closed sale in Isola has occurred within the past six months. It’s not a true average. However, three of the condos that have gone pending at Isola within the past three months have an average list price of $358 per square foot. This is close to the $342.72 price per square foot associated with the one condo that has sold within the past six months.
Biscayne Boulevard – Then & Now
I’m not quite sure when the picture above was taken. My guess is the late 1920’s. The Freedom Tower, which you see in the background of both pictures, was built in 1925. I do know, however, that the picture below was taken this afternoon. It’s amazing to see how much Biscayne Boulevard has changed over the years.
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – January 2008
In the last update of the Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends in November 2007, I promised that the Miami and Miami Beach Condo Trends would be a monthly update. I hate breaking promises but December turned out to be much busier for me than I had expected. With the holidays on top of everything, it was a promise that I had to break.
I also mentioned the inclusion of a condo rental index. I still plan to include these stats within the next couple of months.
Below, you will find the January figures. The first box to the left shows the total number of condos that are currently available for sale on the MLS in Miami-Dade County. These include condos located in Miami, Miami Beach, Aventura, Homestead, Kendall, Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, etc. Keep in mind that these numbers do not include single family homes, just condos, townhomes and lofts. What surprised me is that the total number of listed condos has gone down since the November report. It dropped about 2 percent. However, the number of closed sales in the previous month fell sharply, down about 22 percent. The current condo inventory now represents 5.72 years of supply. That is roughly a 20 percent increase over the November figure. Thousands of new condos are ready to be delivered within the coming months, so we should see subsequent increases in upcoming months. Most of this increase will be throughout Miami, as opposed to Miami Beach or other areas of Miami-Dade County. You’ll notice that the figures are also broken down by price range to give you a better idea of which part of the condo market has been affected the most.
Below you’ll find the same statistics but these only encompass condos located in Miami. In November, the existing condo inventory represented 4.04 years of supply. Now, just two months later, we’re sitting on 6.01 years of condo supply. This represents approximately a whopping 49 percent increase! This is mainly attributed to a large drop-off in closed sales in the previous month.
The following statistics encompass condos located throughout Miami Beach. The increase of inventory in Miami Beach isn’t so startling. Miami Beach now has 6.15 years of condo supply compared to the 5.89 years of condo supply that we saw in November. This represents an increase of about 4.5 percent. There were only 3 fewer sales in December compared with the number of closed condos in October.
The inventory levels, as of right now, for condos located in Miami and Miami Beach are relatively close. I think by next month you’ll see Miami pulling ahead. What’s your prediction for the inventory levels that we’ll see for Miami condos in July 2008?
New Miami Condos – Closings Rates for January 2008
The chart below will show you the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began. Click on the following links to view the updates in November and December:
Below you will find the date that each development began closings:
Before anybody says it, I realize that One Bal Harbour is not a “Miami Condo”. I didn’t want to change the title of the post just to reflect the fact that One Bal Harbour is located in Bal Harbour. I also didn’t want to exclude it from the list because there is much interest in One Bal Harbour, and besides, One Bal Harbour owners would criticize me for not providing an update when the closing rate has jumped since the last update.
The closing rate at One Bal Harbour has hit the 70 percent mark. This is a significant increase since last month’s update. The stock price of WCI surged about 15 percent in the regular session on Wall Street and another 19 percent in after-hours trading on Wednesday after it reported that it has successfully been able to amend its credit and loan agreements. The news story was not publicly disclosed until after the bell. There are currently 55 condo units that have not closed, according to public records. The news reveals that WCI now has a considerable amount of time to sell these last remaining condos.
Ten Museum Park has had about a 7 percent increase in its closing rate while 50 Biscayne has had about an 18 percent increase, since the December update. With the exception of One Bal Harbour, Ten Museum Park and 50 Biscayne, none of the other developments have had an increase of over 5 percent. The two new entries to this month’s update are Loft Downtown 2 and Quantum on the Bay. Loft Downtown 2 should have been included in the November update since closings began in September but it simply slipped my mind. Sporting a 74 percent closing rate, however, makes Loft Downtown 2 appear quite successful in comparison to the other Miami condos. The Grand Opening Party for Loft Downtown 2 is scheduled for Thursday evening.
Closings at Quantum on the Bay began earlier this month and as I’ve stated many times before, closings can take up to 2-3 weeks before they are recorded with the county (however, I have heard that as of January 1, 2008, this is no longer the case. A reliable source told me that a step that sometimes delays the process is no longer required. Closings should now be recorded within 1-2 days after the condo has closed. Can a title agent elaborate on this for me?). Don’t take too much away from the low closing rate at Quantum on the Bay. I mainly included it to act as a stepping stone for next month’s update and let everyone know that it is now on my radar.
Plaza on Brickell – A Look Inside
This afternoon I was able to take a look at about 4-5 condos at Plaza on Brickell with potential buyers. The picture slideshow below will show you a bunch of pictures that I took with the camera on my phone. Keep this in mind because the quality is not that good.
We weren’t able to gain access to the swimming pool deck at Plaza on Brickell today but I was able to see it from a couple of the units that we saw.
Overall, I was impressed with the building and the condos that I saw today. I’ve mentioned before that the condos at Plaza on Brickell offer the best prices that you’ll find of the new developments in Brickell. There will finally be a more affordable option to buyers in Miami. Hopefully, within the next couple of weeks I’ll get some higher-quality pictures of Plaza on Brickell that I’ll post on this blog.
Short-Sale at One Miami
Last night, I came upon a fantastic short-sale at One Miami. Not necessarily because of the price but because an agent finally did his homework.The listing says the following:
Property is being sold as short sale. All docs already submitted to the bank. Bank approved 272,000, less then 272K will not be considered by the bank.
This is the type of information that I want to see if I’m working with a client that wants to make an offer on a short-sale. I don’t want to waste my time submitting an offer on a short-sale that is going to take 4-6 weeks to be reviewed by the REO department and likely rejected. With a few exceptions, short-sales have been a complete waste of time for me. Hopefully, this will change in 2008.
If you’re a Realtor and have a client that wants to make an offer on a short-sale then make sure you know what the current owner paid for the property. If the current owner paid $400,000 and it is now listed for $200,000, then tell your client to move on and forget about it. As of right now, the banks, for the most part, won’t accept your offer. Why waste your time?
The banks may not want their listing agents to disclose that they are willing to accept “x” amount of dollars on a property because they are hoping that they’ll receive an offer that is greater. Get out of this mindset! Buyers are not stupid! The Internet is filled with a ton of housing information. In this market you won’t get anybody that is going to overpay for your property. Set a price and stick to it for a month. If you don’t get any interest then drop the price next month. Enough said?
