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great post as will add my two cents as one of the original and I mean original off brickell developers…what anyone emeber that Emerson Fitipaldi owned the majority of land in MBV-did you know that Mr. Perricone is was a landmark as the history of Perricone’s is the study of downtown and no knows better than the swindler as I have been involved and been arond since before time-when chickens and roosters announced the day on Brickell so whom better to give two-5 cents than the swindler..ask your questions as is DA BEST RE in S Miami. and let me show you why!!!!
get back here!!!
Looks like a ghost town… when were the pics taken?
Wow a publix! Thank god I have my dodge stratus and I can go to walmart and pay 25% less.
If PF Chang’s and Starbucks are considered fabulous then we have a serious problem in the Brickell dining scene.
I think with the right store mix you have a winner here. Remember they could have built condos here.
When I saw the pictures I thought the same thing….where are the people….the people darn it! What happened?!?!?! LOL Seriously, not a lot of foot traffic, but looks decent.
It appears the pictures were taken in the later part of the day or early morning when everyone is at work. Its not South Beach guys. Everyone in Brickell is at work in their offices during these hours. Take the same pics at 5:30 pm on a Friday during happy hour and it will look much more lively.
Maybe Condo Swindler knows. I met a French gentleman named Alain i believe a few yrs back whose company was originally involved with this. They were also involved at one time with CocoWalk. I believe they sold the right s to this property MBV. I think the name was Constructa?
Did anyone notice the conspicuous absence of people frequenting these doomed businesses. What lunatic would open a business in a crime invested, devoid of people day or night except criminals in downtown Miami.
Welcome to the forth wave of foreclosures, commercial real estate.
seeing that publix made me ‘gasm all over the keyboard!
Brickell is crime infested????
Wasnt that publix going to be a greenwise “organic” publix????????????
if not, it is the same as the other just 3 blocks……..
they should have oppened a WHOLE FOODS MARKET !!!!
good luck brickell (little mahattan) guys!
Haha, way to much hate around here, and each of you has contradicted each other. First, if anybody has actually gone out there at night, the restaurant life is doing quite well considering the economic times, in fact there is even a wait to eat at that place Drew considers not so FABULOUS…ugh hum…Brickell and downtown have a bunch of $$$$ restaurants and steakhouses, for most people who don’t want to pay $100 per person for a meal you need some good quality reasonably priced restaurants like P.F. Chang’s.
Secondly, to the crime, if there was a high rate of crime, according to half these people, who would they rob if its a ghost town? However crime was always really on the outskirts of Brickell and has decreased since the building boom, mostly b/c many of the criminals were pushed out to Cutler Bay and Florida City, b/c many of the Projects were closed for the land.
Now MBV is going to have its struggles with store fronts b/c of work schedule and not being well known, but the restaurant life is going to be a big help in promoting it and pulling it through this recession.
the other publix 3 blocks away is over crowded. This publix is closer (and a safer walk) to the metro mover. All you 900 fans can shop without driving now!
Agreed that we need another grocery option besides Publix downtown. Whole Foods bailed out of the Met project last december…that is too bad as driving 10 miles down to Coral Gables is not the most enjoyable.
Odds and Sods didn’t say crime “infested” he said crime “invested”. Maybe he was refering to mortgage fraud? Its about the only crime you are going to see in Brickell.
I don’t know how many of the posters here actually live in the Mary Brickell Village area but as a resident I thought I’d share my views. With a few exceptions most MB village retail and restaurants are buzzing every evening of the week (except perhaps Mondays) from happy hour (great specials) onwards. A 30-45 minute wait for a table at Rosa Mexicano, PF Changs or Balans is very common. While some retail (2nd floor mostly) is yet to be occupied, there is already a good mix combined with dentist, dry cleaner and now Publix. Remember Segafredo, Novecento, Badrutts and the always full Piola’s (and another new pizza place) all steps away from MB village there’s more life than even a few months ago. While a few homeless gather around the People Mover/Metrorail station, overall the village enjoys little or no crime based on weekly stats published in the local papers. Simply sharing my view that Brickell residents can find lot’s more in the neighborhood without necessarily having to drive like previously – that I suspect was the purpose of Lucas’ post in the first place.
The pictures dont due the area justice as yes the afternoons are quiet there except for lunchtime when everyone comes out of their offices. At night the area is quite vibrant as yes most of the restaurantd due fill up and even have waits..The empty stores as you say are filling up and adding new entities to an already good mix of high end and fare for regular people. La Fitness is weeks away which again will add to the mix not to mention the amount of spandex and botox to look at. Publix is supposed to be a “Green” publix and yes take it from a real foodie it is sooo much better than the other two just three blocks away-and agreed while would have rather had a whole foods do any of you think the people riding the metro would shop there-not to mention the walk-up counter that caters to those looking for a colada..
Remember all when Lincoln Road was a death walk, with homeless people sleeping in the vestibules, when The dead end Bakery Center wished it had some people to walk its hallowed halls…Is anyone really shopping at Merrick Park?? You all watch and heed my predictions that MBV will thrive and give the residents of Brickell a real destination playground for residents and adults now all we need is a Movie theatre as yes driving definately a waste of time when you live downtown.
I like MBV a lot. I just don’t like Brickell in general though.
Good post Lucas,
Unfort the pics don’t do it justice, and as the comments are being posted and those that have actually BEEN to MBV for lunch or dinner/drinks know that this area is probably one of the hottest if not THE hottest spot to go in Miami right now.
MBV has had major problems though; deficient construction (the place seems to always be in a continuous state of repair), astheteics (nowhere near as nice as the revamped and similar Cocowalk), hurricane delays, poor management, multiple ownership changes, along with slow leasing has hurt the center, but the tenants mentioned in previous posts and ones continuing to go in (and around the area) really are making the area a great place to live.
Just need a Books and Books bookshop/cafe to open there…It would be an instant success. Also, a bike shop and a competitor to Starbucks would be successful.
A few points from someone who lives a stone’s throw away:
The Publix. It’s a nice one, combining “green wise” organic offerings with regular publix fare. The selection and, obviously, the facilities are better than any other publixes (sp? publi?) in the area. Recommended.
Restaurants. The Oceanaire is the best seafood restaurant in Miami. Rosa Mexicano is fantastic, truly, and the service is good too. Balan’s is great for brunch. Pieola, a nearby pizza place, is cheap and quite good. I can do without some of the other eateries, but at least they’re there.
Clothing stores. They’re hurting a bit, since foot traffic is really only there at night. At least for now. There are however several nice stores serving more affluent clientele. For women’s clothing you can hardly do better.
Specialty stores. There’s a chocolatier and a tobacconist. There’s also a nice boutique pharmacy. I’ve heard a wine store is moving in too. Good stuff.
All in all I really like it. Combine this with the crush of newly constructed condos and easy access to light rail –as well as the new bars down the road (Badrutt’s, Segafredo, the new irish pub) — and we have a winner.
It’s nice to be positive about Miami for a change. Three years ago Brickell was an utter ghost town. It appears we wont be seeing those days for a long, long time.
I visited MBV in February and it was certainly not empty. It was actually a nice alternative to SOBE. We had dinner at Oceanaire and later drinks at Blue Martini. There were plenty of people there and the Blue Martini was actually full. Overall MBV was enjoyable and felt very safe and upscale. It had more of a neighborhood feel than SOBE for obvious reasons.
Well, when the same guy with different names keeps posting “crime infested” for every place in Miami, you guys know that he has no credibility any longer.
Leaving aside such haters, MBV was decently busy on many days and evenings I was there. I was looking to open a lounge there but the rents are ridiculous. I dislike Brickell but I do not mind hangin out at MBV. As the nearest Publix to Pace is now at Biscayne/50th street and it is a disgusting third world mess and I hate going there. So I will take the free Sky bus to MBV from Pace Park to shop at the publix until 2011/2012 when the Bayview Market opens in OMNI with its own Publix/Supermarket.
Yeah think More like 2011 or 2012 the earliest for that Market-they and or any other market (Hint Hint Whole Foods) should take the Circuit City space as its already built and can be a quick transfrom to Grocery-there is parking and no ground study through derm and all the other permits (Fees to the city) its going to be waiting a long time to get unless that is they bribe someone but that doesnt happen here in this city!!!
It would be great for midtown and give you a real market to shop in as I agree the 50st Biscayne is like shopping in the hood, too bad Bay Point…As far as a lounge at MBV could work with right mix-but not another segafredo or Badroots-think more laid back, non pretentious, lets see what the over the top $$ Irish pub will bring to the table-but a pool table in Brickell with inexpensive brews and drinks would be a nice touch…And you would be surprised in the power in negotiations as far as rent goes but thats another story…There are other ideas brewing as who knows I just may be opening something there or in the general area as well…will keep ya posted…
#23
About 4-5 years ago I learned after- the- fact from someone who had been involved in discussions with Publix that the Equity One Reit -which operates many Publix anchored strip centers-had attempted to purchase the Omni and was hoping to bring in Publix as an anchor.
Equity One did not get the Omni deal but the group that did still has a perfectly suitable space in the NE corner for a Publix, Whole Foods, Fresh Market etc.
Has anyone heard any news re that possibility?
The new MBV Publix missed the mark by not having high- end prepared meals to go: was there recently and saw the same old greasy chicken baking under the heat lamp with other unappetizing chazeri.
How about Skyline Mary Brickell Village, is it going to get built? Its the condo that is suppose to be built above Publix.
swindler,
look for a lounge/bar on the biscayne between 15 and 36. It is the place 2 b in a couple of years. Makes sense to negotiate and lock in a cheap rent at this time.
george,
The NE corner OMNI had a private house which did not budge or sold out for many years. Finally the house is sold to OMNI developers (Argent). Now they can do something with it. A publix or WFM there would do very well with 5000 flats in walking distance with in that area.
That area is ok and agreed in a couple of years but again depends on business entity. The daily is making a killing but a few others there are hurting lets see what the Paramount project brings as the developer is basically bankrupt on that as well as many other of his projects-so lets see what goes in there-I know there is a new bagel Place coming soon so lets see how they compare to H & H-AJ you tell me….
As far as Skyline is concerned according to the owner she has sold enough units to begin construction and have hired the GC and will begin in July/August-But they will need to rethink pricing schedule as while the project is beautiful it will be costly-let see what actually gets built based upon their extremely lavish plans.
AJ #26
oops my mistake : the Northwest corner fronting Biscayne was originally allocated to a supermarket not the NE corner
I sent 2 emails to investor relations at Whole Foods last year prior to their withdrawing
from Met project suggesting that since there was no progress at Met they might consider Omni
Of course WF was aware of this alternative location but has had a rough year in the recession-depression as consumers traded down from fancier foods, and with less $ in the till WF has reduced the number of new store openings
Besides the lack of people has anyone noticed the lack of Jaguars, Lexus’s, Mercedes and Porsche’s, where are all the rich people able to afford these over priced Condos.
Judging by what few cars are parked outside these doomed businesses I’d say it’s the $125 crowd and if the little tiny yellow car is anything to go by we are below the $125 crowd for he can’t afford a $1.25 Latte let alone a $125 per square foot luxury high rise Condo with ocean views.
Have we sunk so low that the highlight of the Miami social scene is a grand opening of a Publix! What next a ribbon cutting ceremony of a McDonald’s by Obama or a Champagne bottle smashing launch of a row boat by the chimp who bit that woman’s face off.
O for yester year!
The Smart car is priced dumb. $12,000+ for that thing is idiotic. Mercedes Benz should drown and die in a toilet bowl. The ideal price should have been $6000, at which many people would be interested in that car including me. It is shocking that many other larger cars have as much fuel efficiency as the Fart (oops, I meant Smart). Tata Nano priced at $2500 in India is soon (likely 2011 or 2012 introduction) to come up with a Euro and US version with all the trimmings, safety and emission features for $6000.
Until the Merc guys drop the price in half, people should not buy Smart. There are many choices with better fuel efficiency and only 30-50 inches longer than Smart.
the restaurants at mbv probably do just fine. but there is so much dead space there for the retail component…just like cocowalk (which, without much shock, had the same architect). minimal foot traffic in the retail component means you will have incessant turnover.
…like I have said, a third of car dealerships must go and 10% of retail must go….. It is a structural recession, long and painful, not a cyclical recession. Not a depression overall, but not a typical recession by a long shot.
Ok-so it seems that many of you Downtown MBV naysayers as well as crime infested misguided need yet another dose of reality from the swindler. As you know The swindler, who yes is a downtown Miami resident, also a former developers representative who has built many buildings and as well has 20 years on Brickell needs to open all of your eyes to the bounty of opportunity the downtown Brickell life offers as this weekend, the proof is in the pudding as I would love to share my photos of Happy Hour from MBV as well as the lines of people waiting for tables at the areas restaurants this past Saturday night (recession WHAT recession)-as even I had to wait at Oceanaire and I am friends with Sean (who is an amazing Chef for all you who havent tried his food-its worth the price and then some compared to others but hey thats a review on my food blog…
Sunday morning proved yet another amazing reality that I took for granted and again would upload and share a photo where possible-but right in the middle of the downtown concrete jungle sits Simpson Park, a tranquil oasis in a city whereby Chinese drywall will be the talk of the town by January 2010-so remember folks where you read it first. But for you who dont know or have never been Simpson park is a landmark since the early 1900’s. This is as old school as it gets and while not as developed as lets say a tropical-knowing I95 is just steps away well thats says it all-on a whim I got sandwiches from Steven at Perricones and had myself a picnic in the FREE park and never realized I was in Miami until I walked out and back onto SE 2nd-talk about serenity now-
So how does this tranquil piece of old Florida relate to the condo boom-well its just another reality as to why the Brickell area life has so much potential so again all you harbingers of negativity get over it just because you paid premium prices-maybe go out and take advantage of the free bees and your fees might just not seem such a burden!!!
swindler, whats your blog? where are the uploaded photos?
Did you guys hear a new bike shop opened in super cool MBV? WOW! My life is now complete.
These pictures look as about as exciting as living in Dadeland or Sawgrass. I would just go ahead and move to Orlando if you like this type of development.
I just saw some spectacular inside pics of the flats Paramount Bay (in Bryan and Bills site) and Marquis (in Samir Patels site).
I have never seen anything as spectacular. The clawfoot tub in the middle of the bathroom with bayviews of a Paramount’s flat is simply superb. The bath and kitchen fittings and appliances are outstanding to say the least. The 10′ floor to ceiling windows and the views are just unbelievable. I am truly jealous. Guaranteed I will be spending a lot of time in the Edgewater Plaza (the Paramount’s water front mall) when it opens.
The two last great buildings. I am just a bit frustrated with not much news coming out regarding their opening date.
Samir, do you have any inside info on either buildings?
i live at plaza on brickell.
mary brickell village is full of life. you will find one of the best spots in Miami to eat and chill.
you would think Sobe is only thing to go out on saturday nights. come to MBV and you will see restaurants are full. and the best thing for me i do not need to drive and can have fun.
Brickell is Brickell. Thats why I do not understand when people think that Miami will go under. Yes they overbuilt some buildings in Miami. And those buildings have bad locations.
But nobody speaks here about successful buildings in Miami.
Plaza On Brickell is almost sold out and only couple units left.. You can not have better location in Miami right now. Mary Brickell Village is across the street and we are in the heart of Brickell.
You wont find bargains in sold out buildings. And they do rent very fast.
Ask Lucas and he should tell you.
AJ – probably a month for Paramount, probably sooner for Marquis
They should rename the Plaza “New Caracas”.
nywayz It’s indeed a very nice building. I saw a one bedroom there facing West and I felt it was very very small. Tiny.
Swindler,
You seem to know the greater downtown area very well. Do you know what is the name of the building which has the New York Bagel opening on the ground floor on the Biscayne blvd. It seems a rather nice building but no one ever talks about i. It is across the ‘Gallery Art’ (the old Mondrian).
Mary Brickell Village is amazing! I love it, and it’s so convenient to get to since it’s right next to the Brickell Metro station. It’s not always this dead looking, and it’s PACKED at night, with lots of people walking around. I love Brickell because every week it seems there’s a new restaurant or store opening up there, and the area always has more, and more people walking around. Brickell is the place to live.
Samir, thanks for the info. But smack in the middle of the opening of Paramount, they will be digging up the entire North Bayshore Drive. It is being completely redone at a cost of 1.4 million dollars. It will be a construction zone until November 2009.
So the access to Paramount will be only from the 20th and 21st st. So those rich people who will be coming to close (from my understanding upto 30% are ready to close as soon as the opening starts) might be slightly inconvenienced or will have limited access to the Pace Park. Not a major issue but a downer nevertheless.
the best icecream on Miami is right here ate MBV!
AJ some units are small they have 1 bdr small ones like 600 sf and big ones almost 1000 sf
yes many people from all over the world have a second home in plaza but does not mean thats bad.
i wish i have more wealthy neighbors from argentina and Venezuela
AJ, the building with the bagel place opening is called City 24.
You can rave about Brickell all you want but there is still no parks near your condo zip zilch nada except that one next to Icon which is the size of a postage stamp. Same on Brickell Key. You would think your in the middle of Manhattan. It has no soul. Yet if you live in a condo just north across the river you have Bayfront Park then Museum Park then Pace Park. And you dont have to wait for the Brickell Bridge to go up and down. Take the Metro Mover if u want over to MBV and Tobacco Road or catch a taxi. You dont need two cars. Remember that Loft ONe and Two has no on site parking for their residents.If you want two parking spaces move out to Dadeland or Kendall and fight your way into the city for two hours everyday.
AJ
Whatever Happened To Mary?
DJ, Thanks. No one talks about City 24 that much. It looks like a very nice building. Anyone knows anything about it?
Kramer, What Mary are you talking about?
I just looked up City 24 online and I see that a lot of Realtors are selling and renting that building. It is a very beautiful building, an excellent location and also seems very affordable to rent.
Lucas, how come you are not featuring it in your list of buildings in the Arts District? With 120 units, some with 1000 sf terraces and a pyramid like architecture, it is not a building to ignore.
AJ
The building from the movie that was supposed to be a restaurant at Paramount Bay next door to you
Kramer (#46),
Or if you want two parking spots, move to the Lexi. 😉
AJ,
From what I’ve gathered about City 24, it’s a bit lower down on luxury scale as opposed to a lot of the other buildings in Midtown/Arts Dist. My realtor wanted to show it to me when we were looking a while ago, but I passed after seeing the pictures and size of the units online. Plus no direct bay views. I don’t think it’s bad by any means. It would probably be decent for as a rental, but not a place to make into a long term residence IMO.
hi guys…
do you think that a lower unit at marina blue priced at low $200 psqf it would be a good investment in a 3 to 5 year period???, taking into account that the building is 90somthing% sold, that the people how bought the apartments close mid-2008 knowing that they are in the middle of a recession and they are closing at +- $400 psqf, so I assume that they have enough money to hold the properties, and that a bulk buyer bought 60 units at $200psft and they have to sell it at +- $250 just to break-even in 3 years, and last but not list, that 98% of the units available for sale are around $300 psqf.
OR
do you think that the real state market is going to fall for +5 years like the last time in 1991 that fall for 7 years????
aga,
Your question is along the lines of asking what the winning lottery numbers will be next week. My advice would be to do a lot of research and make a decision on your own. Asking that question here will illicit all types of responses, from AJ telling you to go for it, to Renter Tom saying that housing will not recover for the next 200 years.
The something about Mary House was hit by the fallen crane during construction if you all remember-and became a false promise of the development-just one of the millions I have heard in the past few years from the developers here in Miami-
aga-
Why do you want to live in Park Waste-at any price??? Whats the allure-while I will comment that 900 is probably the best built on the whole, it loses so much in its location, even with what I know is coming and being added to the mix-as far as the long term lottery prediction-realize that that area will not increase in realistic value until the Museums are completed, the street is occupied with tennants and there is parking for those people looking to come to the area-think more like increased value 10years so if its an investment do your diligence if you are an end user get a GUN and a big scary Dog!
Lucas — Quick suggestion: Love the site and the recent pictures posts have been great, but this site is starting to take a long time to load with so many pics on the front page. Any chance of maybe posting 1-2 pics per new post on the front page, and then tucking the rest of the pics into the post (e.g., with a “More …” link or something)? Thanks.
Kramer,
When the crane fell, it did so directly on the Mary’s house and damaged it. Initially the developers vowed to make that house whole again. But then down the road they decided to tear it apart. I was very disappointed at first. But after the building is completed and I went to look again, I completely changed my perspective.
The Edgewater Plaza (The courtyard mall by the bay) looks really stunning. No other building in Miami or Miami Beach has anything remotely close to this. It is spectacular. Having that house smack in the middle of this grand plaza’s courtyard would have made it look less grandiose and cluttered.
In any case what is so great about the Mary’s house? Just because it was featured in a B grade movie once does not merit saving it. I understand that Miami has no history like Cologne, Strasbourg or St Petersburg (or even 300 year old New York) and so people there tend to hang on to silly things like Miami Circle and this house. That is the closest we get to history and culture I guess.
The one best thing Miami did (by some determined transplanted New Yorkers) is by saving the Art Deco District of the Beach.
Everything else in Miami is demolishable and rebuildable. Nothing else is kosher.
whatever happened to the books & books that was going to open in MBV?
I thought that was a brilliant addition to the area…
I don’t think the parking rates are really that cheap. Most places I’ve parked at in L.A. are cheaper than that, and a lot of them have a much longer grace period (2-3 hours free in Beverly Hills, Century City, Santa Monica, etc).
I just cancelled my trip to Italy to spend a few days at Mary Brickell Village. I have friends flying in from around the world to enjoy the MBV lifestyle.
We hope to spend our mornings at the unique Starbucks in the morning, followed by a few hours at the FedEx Kinkos watching paper. By afternoon, we have reserved time at the sparkling new Publix to marvel at food from around the world. We will be surrounded by cultures and foods from across the globe. No other area can offer this.
By evening, we plan to dine at the one and only PF Changs. The chef and restaurant is unique to Miami. I look forward to meeting Mr. Chang. After dinner, a pleasant stroll through the glittering parking garage is a must. So many lights the vibe will be electric!
I will photograph our entire time. Its going to be one crazy weekend!
^LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Italy is overhyped anyway. Fontana di trevi is minuscule, and Silvio’s party’s are full of balding man on viagra.
I am thinking of making an offer for a condo at infinity at Brickell anyone has any insight on this development, latest closings, quelity etc??
Thanks.
For the record The Art Deco District was not “saved” by some determined transplanted New Yorkers. Im assuming your referring to Tony Goldman. It was a local lady by the name of Barbara Capitman who in 1979 helped form The Miami Design Preservation League which led to the district being placed on The National Register Of Historical Places. This prevented developers plans from tearing down these deco buildings which in the 1970’s had become derelict. She was the first to recognize the historic architectural worth of these buildings. Without her tenacity SoBe would not be SoBe. Tony Goldman came later as the money man who started the refurbishing. Just credit where credit is due. There is even a street in South Beach called Barbara Capitman Way.
Which reminds me there seems to be a considerable female persuasion in Miami’s 100 yrs or so history. Barbara Capitman – Julia Tuttle – Marjory Stoneman Douglas – and Mary Brickell (As in Mary Brickell Village).
crappy expensive food. The one that is a little better deal is rosa mexicano (love their lamb) So i just go to calle ocho. Nice delicious and inexpensive food devoid of wannabes, snooties & harlots.
8th street west of brickell has far better food and restaurants. and no new jersey harlots like brickell; but real dirty central american strumpets who will make your wildest dreams come true
I love harlots!
Anyway, my friend quit his server job on a Lincoln road restaurant and started working in Rosa Mexicano and he says it is the best move he made. He is taking home an average $200/day home in tips and shift. He loves it there.
Kramer — Thanks for the note re: Capitman. I ran across an old Miami SunPost article about her and her efforts; really interesting lady who probably hasn’t come close to getting her due. Without her, it seems clear South Beach would be just another generic area these days. According to the article, the Miami politicians and even most SoBe business owners were incredibly hostile toward her efforts. (Actually, when it comes to progress in Miami and God-awful politicians and “leaders,” I guess things haven’t changed all that much.)
AJ, do have to always paint everything with such an exagerated silver lining? Your friend got a shitty waiter job at a brickell restaurant and you make it seem as it he/she has hit the lottery.
DJ
What hapened with your unit at Lexi?
Hugo, it’s still in the works. Short sales just take a LONG time unfortunately. Just spoke with my realtor, and the second BPO was done on sat. (for the second loan, HELOC). We’re hoping to get an answer by next week. The short sale package was submitted right around 4/1, so it’s been about 2.5 months.
Here is a reasonable and realistic article on home prices….so much for the home prices never go down so it doesn’t matter what the price is only the monthly payment matters…even the high end. Click name for link.
‘Millionaire Homes’ May Lose Value Until 2012: Chart of the Day
By Jody Shenn
June 16 (Bloomberg) — Prices for the most expensive U.S. homes may not reach bottom for another few years, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the supply of unsold homes by price in California, data that the mortgage-bond analysts including John Sim and Matthew Jozoff used in a June 12 report to illustrate the weakening market for the most-expensive residential properties. The supply of homes priced $750,000 to $1 million held steady while the supply of more expensive properties increased.
“Tighter lending standards and the lack of cheap financing for these borrowers continue to be key issues,” the New York- based analysts wrote, referring to “jumbo” mortgages. That’s after so-called interest-only and option adjustable-rate loans were a “major driver” of soaring values, they said.
The government’s moves to aid the housing market include the Federal Reserve’s mortgage-bond purchases to drive down interest rates; President Barack Obama’s “Home Affordable” loan modification and refinancing programs; and new tax credits for some first-time buyers. None of the U.S. initiatives “directly focused on helping the sales of these so-called millionaire homes,” the analysts wrote.
“Currently, we have national home prices bottoming in 2011,” they said. “However, prices for more expensive homes may not bottom out until 2012, and ultimately result in peak-to- trough declines in excess of 60 percent (compared to 40 percent nationally).”
“California is probably worse than other states, but higher-priced homes in general are going to be a problem,” Sim said in a telephone interview today. The state’s median sales price for existing single-family homes fell 37 percent in April from a year earlier, to $256,700, according to California’s Association of Realtors. Nationwide, the price fell 15 percent to $169,800, according to the National Association of Realtors.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 16, 2009 09:38 EDT
What is interesting is that some people (errrr, AJ and others) were soooo sure the high-end would fare better than the rest of the real estate market. After all, the “rich” can afford to hang onto these properties and will never sell them and will keep buying them. Well people, the “rich” buy multiple homes usually for investment and wealth protection purposes as part of their long-term wealth management plans, not primarily as a place of shelter. These high-end homes suck at being a worthwhile investment and offer no wealth protection whatsoever now. Hence having that rarely used chalet home in Vail and the empty luxury condo on Miami Beach doesn’t make sense anymore. The mania is over and the high end will continue to bleed.
“In other news, the sky is falling, fire and brimstone will rain down, starvation, pestilence and plague will sweep the earth, and armageddon will finally be upon us.”
-renter tom
RT:
the lower prices homes in sofla are or very near bottom. 2/2 condo in nice suburbs can be had for 70-90 k. That is a deal. Brickell /DT 2/2 would settle at 150-170 k range in few yrs.
WRT to the upper end house, it is going to be hari kari time that even mehmood , the waiter in Rosa and AJ’s pal, could stretch to afford them in time.
Joe – Dont get me started on local politicians. But yes Barbara Capitman was the exception to the adage that you cant fight city hall. Does anyone remember the City of Miami Beachs plans South of Fifth before the high rises came – for the plan from developers then was to make SoFi their version of Venice by digging canals with gondolas and the like. I think the plan fell apart when the then Miami Beach mayor Alex Daoud I think was his name – was convicted of drug charges and taking bribes from anybody in town. I think he served five years. Wheres Wild Bill – he should know all the dirt on this one. Then along came this wealthy German (Thomas Kramer – no relation 🙂 ), who allegedly scammed his in-laws out of a healthy chunk of money and built the first high rise in SoFi – Portofino. The unlimited entertainment we receive from these clowns is allmost worth the higher taxes.
DJ – Don’t worry, the real estate price rebound is just around the corner so act now or you’ll be priced out of the market forever….FOREVER! hahahahahaha 🙂 The high end is going down, down, down… The low end can’t go too much lower though since they have been hitting an affordable rent/own ratio. In the 90’s we had Beanie Babies…in the 2000’s we had homes/condos.
DJ, It is indeed a silver lining. Jokes apart, I know a lot of waiters and waitresses who used to make $200/day or night in the good old days are now working all day and lucky to go home with $100. Most of the time, they go home with between $50 and $80.
So this guy making decent money ($200) for a days worth of slogging in these hard times is real news and good news.
Also proves that the wannabes and the harlots and their bald, potbellied admirers in Brickell are good tippers compared to the Euro trash tourists on Lincoln rd.
AJ,
You are offending the European tourists !
Not all Euro tourists are trash tourists.
RT — I hope you’re right, but it doesn’t seem accurate to say “the high end is going down, down, down” when it hasn’t really started yet, at least not in the best buildings on SoBe. These articles keep talking about 40% and 60% adjustments, but I haven’t seen anything close to that in the best buildings. In fact, I’m fairly sure I’ve seen a couple Continuum properties re-listed at slightly higher prices. That might be crazy, but it is what it is. Until I see some big drops per sq. foot in the truly high-end buildings, all of this remains speculation.
Visionary,
After I posted the last comment and headed off to Home Depot for some stuff and I was driving and thinking to myself, “havn’t heard from Visionary in a while”.
Lo and behold, I see you posted as if you heard me!
I absolutely agree that we have a lot of high end and sophisticated European tourists on Lincoln road and else where in Miami. But I was only referring to some of the riff raff from Hamburg, Amsterdam, Manchester etc.
We have our own share of trash too. So don’t take it to heart.
But the big question “Is your trash better than our trash” is an unending and unsolved discussion going on for generations.
Joe, it’s hard to say if/when SoBe -on the Beach RE- will have a sharp correction, but it’s worth noting that when things move, they can move fast. If you followed the the Jet market, high end yachts, Hi End commercial RE, and Manhattan RE you’ll see they all got a dramatic smackdown but at different intervals over the last 2-3 years. What you should notice is how resolutely “the smart money” prognosticated these areas one-by-one would be immune to the recession only to eventually succumb in a dramatic fashion.
People like to talk about SOBE and South of Fifth RE as if it’s in it’s own isolated world with it’s own rules, but it’s not. It’s just illiquid. When something is illiquid you can suspend market forces but eventually things will equilibrate. You get prices in Icon Brickell and adjoining buildings to crash, then that will bleed away buyers from SoFi guaranteed. You get the prices on the west side of SoFi to soften, then that will affect Continuum guaranteed….
There’s no bottom or absolute value for any of these buildings or yachts or jets. It’s only worth X if you have the expectation that you can sell it later for Y. Once that expectation is proven false, then the floor can drop out rather fast in illiquid transactions.
A particular building is hard to say what will happen. I know several wealthy people very reluctantly holding onto units until the market “turns around”….they are getting concerned that perhaps things won’t turn around but a stubborn that it will. As each month goes by, they lament holding the units. Perhaps they can temporarily keep a particular unit from having sales by not listing or listing at wishing prices. I have seen several buildings with only wishing prices listed and no movement of anything. Good for them….hold out longer! I don’t think it is out of reach to say the luxury home market has collapsed and continues to cliff dive. It is what it is people.
This just in so figured I would add as we are talking about MBV right..
Land deal puts new synagogue on track for 2011 opening
This is a rendering of the future Shul of Downtown Miami. HAND-OUT
Photo BY JAWEED KALEEM
[email protected]
The real estate slump has allowed an Orthodox Jewish group to purchase land for a new synagogue across the street from Miami’s Mary Brickell Village for 20 percent of the original asking price.
When Rabbi Chaim Lipskar approached Africa-Israel to buy the 7,000-square-foot lot three years ago, he said, the Israel-based real estate firm wanted $3.5 million.
But like many boom-time investors with ambitious plans, Africa-Israel, which along with Brooklyn-based developer Shaya Boymelgreen bought a handful of properties in Miami and Miami Beach five years ago, did not see its vision materialize.
On May 28, Africa-Israel sold the congregation the property, at 35 SE Ninth St., for $720,000.
”It’s a glimmer of light among the lost of value of property,” Lipskar said. “The community is excited. We’ll be central for anyone living downtown.”
Construction will begin within the next six to eight months, Lipskar said. After the building is completed in 2011, total cost of the 15,000-square-foot, three-story facility will be $3 million.
Designed by Miami architect Bernard Zyscovich, it will include a 5,000-square-foot sanctuary, a mikvah (ritual bath facility) and a preschool with a roof-top play area.
”This will be the first Jewish center to be built in the heart of Miami in [more than] 60 years,” Lipskar said.
He runs two Chabad-Lubavitch synagogues with about 300 members in rented office spaces at 48 E. Flagler St. and 1101 Brickell Ave. Additional Jewish centers near downtown Miami include Temple Israel, 137 NE 19th St.; Chabad at Midtown, 3030 NE Second Ave. and Beth David, 2625 SW Third Ave.
Beth David, established in 1912, is Miami’s oldest Jewish congregation.
When the new Shul of Downtown building opens, the Brickell Avenue location will close, Lipskar said, but the Flagler Street location likely will remain open.
Chabad Lubavitch is one of the largest Hasidic movements in Orthodox Judaism with about 4,000 centers in more than 50 countries.
There are 60 Chabad centers in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, according to the website
Ok so another failed Boylvgreen project, should I list them or are we all edumacated (sp correct)-does anybody want to buy some land on SOBE, behind 7-11 on West/Alton??? Big eyes + big wallet=BIG IDIOT, stick to diamonds and stay out of Miami…lets see what happens with Marqui-can anyone say Camillas House-
‘“In other news, the sky is falling, fire and brimstone will rain down, starvation, pestilence and plague will sweep the earth, and armageddon will finally be upon us.”
-renter tom’
It’s getting seriously tedious.
“By evening, we plan to dine at the one and only PF Changs. The chef and restaurant is unique to Miami. I look forward to meeting Mr. Chang.”
Now that made me laugh out loud.
Renter Tom — But again, your words don’t match the reality of the high-end SoBe market. It’s inaccurate to say the “luxury home market has collapsed and continues to cliff dive” when, in reality, prices haven’t dropped much at all.
Again, as a potential SoBe buyer, I hope you’re right, but lack of sales doesn’t mean much to me. Falling prices are what will mean something to me, and I’m not seeing it happen.
Joe,
You should be concerned about lack of sales. Without sales, no mechanism exists to accurately value the asset. You may still buy, but expect purchases in these times to not truly represent the asset value. Buying in a stalled market can provide bargains, but has quite a bit of risk involved. Think about this, if very few transactions are occurring, why? Nobody has the cash? Or units are not offered at the right price? People do have cash, so price point must be a significant issue. Lower prices dont exist because units cannot be offered at that price-existing mortgage is too high. This is a major conundrum facing many new buildings in Miami. People want to sell, but cannot offer the unit at an equilibrium price-so the market stagnates. Just look at the time on market for many of these buildings. Only time, taxes and HOA fees will solve this problem.
The reason sales are stagnant is because sellers can not, or will not, lower their prices to realistic levels, and they’re stuck with their listing at ‘wishing’ prices.
The most movement we’re seeing these days is on distressed properties, because buyers see this as a bargain and the true market value. Most times when a property goes on the market as a well priced short sale or REO, it’s snapped up pretty quickly by the hungry bargain hunters, sometimes within days with multiple offers. Why would someone pay $3XX/sq. foot when a short sale just went through at $2XX/sq. foot. Anyone seriously looking into buying in that building will consider the distressed price to be the floor, and won’t consider anything above that. They’ll just wait until the next distressed unit comes online, or look elsewhere.
Until more sellers face reality, or go into foreclosure, we’re gonna be in limbo.
Joe – I don’t disagree that some SoBe buildings haven’t cliff dived or even some clusters of buildings. But the few sales don’t necessarily make the market. For example, I know where one developer who recently sold a unit to a buyer for 50% higher than the word on the street to a buyer using a funny mortgage that exceeded the street price…why the bank would give such a loan is a mystery. Then listed several units for almost double what others were listed for and which none of the units were selling even at half the price. Then about 60 days later word was one of the principals has let the country….fishy. The list prices are silly for many of the units.
DJ #88, you summed it up perfectly.
I have been saying all along, The only deals are the distress sales and get em when they come on the market.
The owners will not sell for less unless circumstances force them to.
….it is all about the demand destruction and the previous fictitious demand.
When I know someone that had invested in over 15 units that were left empty, you know it got out of hand.
It will be quite possible that SoBe, and in particular SoFi, units will not collapse in price. These are luxury units owned by people with deeper pockets than usual-deep enough to ride out the storm. But you will then see a stagnant market lasting much longer than the other RE markets in Miami. It will stagnate until inflation creates an equilibrium where sellers can unload the property without a paper loss. They will lose money due to inflation, but that is much more difficult to calculate and typically ignored by most individuals. SoFi bargains will be difficult to come by. Mainland Miami, on the other hand, lookout below!
I agree with gables’ post above. As for Renter Tom and others, again, I’m not trying to beat up anyone here. All I’m saying is that the rhetoric on this board isn’t always in sync with the current market reality. As a potential buyer, it doesn’t matter to me *why* prices haven’t dropped on SoBe (and especially SoFi). All I know is that they haven’t, so it’s simply not true for people to keep saying things like “the market has collapsed.” The market might be stagnant, but it sure hasn’t collapsed. Not even close.
Joe – While I respect what you are saying, just be careful if you think SoBe is immune to steep price declines. This blog isn’t just about SoBe so it is fair to say prices have collapsed on the high end…many many many examples can be posted. With respect to similar types of purchases, look at the boat market, the private jet market, etc……the lux condo market has proven to be fragile around the world too. Just because SoBe is slow to the party doesn’t mean it won’t show up in full force later. If anything, I would have expected high end NYC properties to outperform the SoBe market. SoBe is not a safe harbor, it just isn’t. As I understand it, the modeling gigs centered in SoBe have dried up and only NYC offers any real opportunity…..that is just another indicator the SoBe is expendable as a satellite office to NYC, etc. Heck even Fire Island and other such NYC places have been beaten down. All indications are that this structural recession is going to continue to punish leveraged positions for years to come….real estate is usually a highly leveraged asset and will continue to die of a thousand cuts. If you are concerned about wealth preservations, proceed with caution. I know I am.
SoFi seems to be a very small market, we are talking about just a few blocks. This means there is very little supply when compared to other markets. It is known nationally and internationally and has been written about in several national publications. Some people on this blog has described it as the best neighborhood in Miami( I am not saying it is), in addition to those factors the people owning units in that neighborhood tend to be very well off. That makes it a unique market. I am sure there are a lot of people like Joe who would step in and buy in that market at the slightest dip in prices.
South of Fifth has many distressed sales. Many million dollar pads now sell for $500,000. I also bet these people don’t care about a $500,000 loss because they used magic dust to purchase them in the first place.
RT — Maybe I’ve misunderstood you previously. When you’ve referred to the “luxury market,” I thought you were talking about the luxury SoBe/SoFi condo market. But if you were talking about the luxury market in general — planes and boats and so forth — that’s a whole different story.
Personally, I have tunnel vision here. I’m just looking to get the best possible SoFi unit that I can use as a residence for 5-10 years or more — barring disaster, or having quintuplets — so the talk of market collapses and such haven’t applied to my situation in the least thus far, as the market is (at best) stagnant or perhaps (at worst, for buyers like me) even immune to the big price drops seen elsewhere.
Wild Bill — Examples? I haven’t seen any $500,000 or greater price drops in SoFi, unless they’re somehow happening off the books/MLS. Thanks.
Joe – When talking about the luxury market, I am talking about Miami and South Florida too. Not limited to SoBe. So your question becomes, if you buy a $1M unit SoFi unit today will it be worth $500K in 3 years. Answer, probably not. However, the same forces that may be propping up SoBe right now are the same forces that led to the bubble in the first place. I know one person that owns more than one unit in SoFi and several more units in SoBe who would be more than happy to cash out without a loss. I know of one apt to condo conversion that is half off in SoBe which I may take a look at in July. Sorry, can’t tell you which one until after I review the building and if decide not to plunk down under $XXXK just for the hell of it….it wouldn’t be a primary residence but the price may be acceptable for an occasional use. The more you put at risk the more you can lose so be careful and see if you really get $X of enjoyment out of it since we need to take out the “investment thinking” of residential real estate. Anyway, it is your money so do what you want. Obviously you have some concerns otherwise you wouldn’t be posting. Do your research and other due diligence and make your decision. In this market, you’ll want to do a LOT of research since I trust no one in South Florida real estate. I have heard so much BS from so many people it is really unbelievable.
RT — Just so we’re on the same page, I agree with almost everything you’ve posted here, not just in this thread but in many threads, re: simple economics, market logic, etc. From everything I’ve seen, I’d expect big price drops to be coming even to SoFi given the glut of unsold units, investor-owned units, and developer-owned units. The frustrating thing is that no such big drop has happened, and I haven’t even seen much of a hint of a big impending price correction.
The (literally) million-dollar question is, Will the same normal economics come into play and force a SoFi price correction, or are SoFi owners and developers so deep-pocketed and/or hard-headed that they’ll keep prices sky-high, and keep sales stagnant perhaps for years, rather than begin to lower prices and/or cash out? Based on the limited evidence (recent sales), it seems like anyone’s guess.
Broham- look at the mondrian. There are major price drops in some units there. All it takes are 1-2 units then comes the waterfall.
MBV is so freaking nice. I’ve never ever seen anything like it. Mind blowing. Abso-fucking-lutely mind blowing! WOW! Starbucks! Shiiiiit!
[…] was told that the new Publix at Mary Brickell Village opened on June 6, 2009. Last week, I had a chance to walk its aisles. Overall, I was pleased. […]
Joe – The “homes as an investment” strategy that sooooo many people got into esp after the asset-less tech bubble is pretty much gone. Even celebrities have been dumping their extra trophy properties and so have the wealthy. Gone are the days that asset appreciation was three times the holding costs. With respect to SoFi, it really depends on how many were investor units and how long the owners will want to pay the bills without really enjoying their properties much. If I were you I’d look at rents and how many lights are on at night…..RENTS and LIGHTS. If the rental units don’t command rental prices that make sense for the asking sales prices then you know that ULTIMATELY the demand to live in that location isn’t there at those prices. Rents should cover all holding costs plus a profit margin…..afterall, if a renter won’t even commit to the full costs then why the heck would a buyer in such an illiquid asset??? The rents are the best gauge of demand and Lucas’ website includes mls recent rentals rates which really is the most invaluable resource out there…it tells you what the market actually is in a way that sparse sales data doesn’t since it is more fluid and is more of a “real time” number. My bottom line is that highly leveraged asset prices will continue to decline in this deleveraging environment and there is a lot more deleveraging to go. Another thing to consider is that the “move up” buyers are no where to be found in almost all areas of the country…..
“Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive of Coldwell Banker Real Estate, in an interview with Reuters, said sales were only modest during the spring, with demand overwhelmingly dominated by first-time home buyers and investors.
“The more important ‘move-up’ buyers were absent and that is not encouraging,” said Gillespie …”They are key to a U.S. housing market recovery,””
Joe, when you have something illiquid and it’s ticking down, beware. Don’t believe anything till you see some volume.
Joe,
The Herald used to post a few neighborhood specific sales and list the previous purchase prices. I only use MLS as a reference point, asking prices mean nothing. Public records is the only way to go. Problem is you have keep your own records.
SoBe, and in particular SoFi, is a unique market. You may catch a couple of distress sales, but you wont see an overall significant fall in prices. Underwater investors perhaps, but many folks with money who own there will just ride out the storm. Their capital will be tied up in an nonappreciating asset, but they will not give up the property at a loss. Most likely, they will rent it out, or use it more often as their primary vacation home-a possible nice side effect for the local economy. Moving north along Miami Beach, and the argument will be completely different-those units will fall. But SoFi will remain fairly safe overall-just not very liquid. I would much rather buy a unit in SoFi, but realize the mainland is only place prices will reach my affordability level.
I don’t think SoFi is safe at all. I think you have “sector rotation” going on into SoFi based on a very specious argument. If enough people say SoFi is different then you’ll get sellers willing ot hold out longer… but when they let go, watch out.
My opinion would be a much much stronger and stable class of owners can be found on Fisher Island and that is starting to get ugly.
Interesting point re: Fisher Island. I figured prices would drop in SoFi before they would on Fisher Island, but maybe not.
The big story on the collapse of Mary brickel Village is yet to be told. It is unlikely that most of the people who put down payments on their condos at MBV will close on them. I can see a whole bunch of lawsuits on their way when the developer fails to complete the condos by the end of 2011 as schedule . It is really going to get ugly unless the developers are willing to drop the orginal prices of the condos by 50% -60%
I invested all of my life savings about five years ago into the Sky Palace at Mary Brickell Village. This is a worse decision that I have made in my life.
The developer, Evangeline Gouletas, has failed to deliver on her promises. I think the name of the projects says it all – it is a fairy tale.
Mrs. Gouletas is probably the best realstate marketer that exist in the planet. Only she buys into the paid ads and articles about how great the building is going to be.
For five years, these folks have changed the name of the project, have delayed construction, and have fooled so many families and investors.
Mrs. Gouletas and her team love to host parties for owners and send emails frequently to keep the dream alive of building this luxury condo.
What ever you do, do not invest in this project. The Sky Palace at MBV is fantasy realestate at its best.
Well , we are into the month of May 2010 and construction of the Skyline at Mary Brickell has yet to begun. The developer promise that the building will be finish sometime in the summer of 2011. Well it usually take more than two years to complete a project of the size of Skyline at Mary Brickell. Even if there were to start tomorrow the building will not be completed until the summer of 2012 more than FIVE years behind schedule. It is time of the developer to do the right thing and stop making promises that the building will be built and return the deposits to those who put them down more than five years ago.
The latest news was that the building of sky palace at Mary Brickell will begin in May becuase the developer had obtained financial help from a hedge fund after been turned down by 55 banks. Well we are in June of 2010 and where are the cranes?
Camilo
You are just as frustrated as I am. I invested in this project over 5 years ago as well. The developer continues to market this “fantasy”. She even changed the name to Sky Palace and continues to market this with empty promises. I assume she is going to have to prepare for several law suits unless she returns peoples deposits. Does anyone know anything about the 5 year HUD on a project. Will a deveoper need to return deposits if they do not complete a project within 5 years?
I have contacted the developer on several occasions this year abut returning our escrow funds since they have not started building. The building has an end date for be ready of december 31, 2011. The developer is are yet obtain financing if they ever due. If they due the building will not be ready until sometime in 2012 more than 8 years after we sign a contract to with the developers. I think is time for the herald to run an article on this developer and ask them what their plans are about return the deposits to the those who did so in 2005.
Keith maybe we should meet to discuss a class action lawsuit again the developer. I am willing to set a place and time in the coming weeks . What do you think. Do you live in Miami
Ramon,
Yes I would be happy to discuss this further with you. What is the best way to reach you?
I think she is going to be forced to return the deposits because no one will finance her unless her current buyers sign another addendum. They want to make sure we are still around to close on the units. My guess is that most have moved on.
Hi Keith and Ramon,
Thanks for the thread. We also placed our lives saving in this project in 2005. We are yet to see any progress on this development and have been thinking of initiating some form of lawsuit. Maybe a class action lawsuit would be appropriate in this matter to get their attention and allow us to get our deposits back. I am in Miami and would love to meet with you and anyone else who is interested in this matter. I will start researching on a good real estate lawyer who can help. Please contact me directly ASAP so that we can do this. I recently saw two condo turned luxury apartment complexes in fairfax that happened only after class action suits when the builder decided to try and walk away and finally the buyers got their deposits back. email [email protected]
lets meet at MBV starbucks this Sat Mar 5th 11am 2011. Please let me know if you all can make it. Please confirm if you will make it. Sanjiv
Sanjiv,
Thanks for the reply. I sent you an email.
The developers March 2011 news letter states constuction is imminent. Its odd because she said the same thing over a year ago. Guess what…law suits are imminent to. She cannot even give her current buyers an accurate completion date. This project is going to be rampant with law suits before it even starts.
I agree . the escxrpw funds are gone from the accounts and there is now way they are going to being construction anytime soon if ever. we must form a class action lawsuit and go after them now Ramon
Ramon,
See Sanjiv replies above. It contains his email. We are in contact discussing lawsuits. Write to him and I will be in touch. Why do you say the escrow funds are gone from the accounts? She is only allowed to touch 10% of the deposit for construction costs. She cannot touch the other 10%.