Pictorial & Video Review of The Fantastic Four in Miami
Today was a beautiful sunny day in Miami so I decided to revisit my favorite skyline-gazing spot at the southwestern tip of Watson Island, along with my trusty digital camcorder. It is the perfect location to view the progression of what I have dubbed The Fantastic Four, made up of, from left to right, Marina Blue, 900 Biscayne Bay, Ten Museum Park and Marquis. It may appear as though there are five developments but the smallest of the buildings is located further off of Biscayne Boulevard to the west. Wikipedia refers to these four developments as the Biscayne Wall, but to me it is far shy of a wall when you compare it to fully built-out skylines in cities such as New York City and Chicago.
The name The Fantastic Four came to mind though as each of these four developments are fantastic ultra-luxury high-rise buildings revitalizing the Downtown Miami neighborhood now known as Park West. Park West was recently developed to be Miami’s equivalent to Manhattan’s Park Avenue. In years to come it will become known as Miami’s luxury neighborhood. It is located directly west of I-395, also known as the MacArthur Causeway, which leads straight into South Beach.Museum Park, formerly known as Bicentennial Park, which is the green piece of land directly east of the The Fantastic Four, will be redeveloped by the Miami Art Museum and the Miami Museum of Science and Planetarium to be transformed into a world-renowned park. It may not seem like a lot of land from the picture above but it is actually comprised of 30-plus acres. The luxury condo buildings in Park West are walking distance to the American Airlines Arena, the newly constructed Carnival Center for the Performing Arts and Bayside Marketplace.
In future months, as closing dates approach, there will be many opportunities to buy into these four buildings at discounted prices. Condo units in these buildings, as well as the thousands of other units coming to market in Miami over the next 18 months, were heavily purchased by investors. Their plan was to flip each condo unit for a profit prior to closing, but demand dried and prices headed south. Many will end up walking away from 20 percent deposits and instead write it off on their taxes. Closings at Ten Museum Park have already begun and Marina Blue should begin theirs towards the beginning of August.
The following pictorial review will give you a closer look at each of these buildings as they appear today:
Note: Watson Island offers the best views of both the Miami and Miami Beach skylines. With the exception of Parrot Jungle and the Miami Children’s Museum, it is a wonder how this land has remained vacant for so long. Flagstone Property Group is supposed to develop a mix-used project known as Island Gardens, with hotel, restaurant and retail space as well as a a “50-slip mega-yacht marina that would accommodate yachts of up 450-feet long”. I haven’t heard of any progress in over twelve months and it doesn’t appear as though anyone has broken ground on the land that I stood on today.
Ten Museum Park – Pricing & Availability Update with Pictures & Video
I revisited Ten Museum Park yesterday with another client. I was able to take a few pictures and shoot a short video but our time was very limited. You can find a picture slideshow at the end of this post along with a short video clip of a unit at Ten Museum Park.
I discovered that there have been a total of seven closings so far at Ten Museum Park. I also received an update on which of the units left to close are problematic cases. They are considered problematic because the contract holder either keeps delaying their closing date and/or they have voiced a strong desire not to close. These represent opportunities as they afford the best pricing currently available at Ten Museum Park. Keep in mind that the prices below only represent the list price. They are not firm prices. Contract holders who are truly motivated or those looking to possibly walk from their deposit may be willing to take a significant loss. They were required to deposit 20 percent of the purchase price into escrow. These were originally placed under contract in January 2004.
First I will show you the 1 bedroom/1.5 bathroom units that are available at Ten Museum Park. As you can see from the floor plan above, the 08 line has a southern exposure while the 05 line has a northern exposure. The one bedrooms have 858 square feet of interior space, a 143 square foot terrace and 10-foot ceilings with floor-to-ceiling glass. The following were originally purchased in the $350,000 to $400,000 price range in January 2004.
Next, we have the smaller 2 bedroom/2.5 bathroom units at Ten Museum Park. The 07 line has a southwest exposure while the 06 line has a northwest exposure. These units have 1,239 square feet of interior space, a 122 square foot terrace and 10-foot ceilings with floor-to-ceiling glass. These were originally purchased in the $450,000 to $505,000 price range in January 2004.
Finally, we have the large 2 bedroom/2.5 bathroom units at Ten Museum Park. These units have the best water views. The view from the southeast corner is my favorite, which is the 01 line. The 02 and 03 lines have a direct east exposure while the 04 has a northeast exposure. These units have 1,949 square feet of interior space, a 192 square foot terrace and 20-foot ceilings with a split-level floor plan and floor-to-ceiling glass. These were originally purchased in the $825,000 to $995,000 price range in January 2004.
The one bedroom units at Ten Museum Park come with one parking space while all two bedroom units come with two parking spaces. There are a total of four elevators to service six units per floor. The maintenance fee is 55 cents per square foot. The Clinique La Prairie spa will be located on the 8th and 9th floors of Ten Museum Park. Other amenities found on those floors include a yoga room, cardio room and weight room. The swimming pool deck has a total of five pools and Jacuzzi, cabanas and aromatherapy stations. A total of ten percent is required at contract signing with the balance due at closing.
The picture slideshow and video clip below are from one of the large 2 bedroom floor plans at Ten Museum Park. It has 1,949 square feet of interior space, a 192 square foot terrace and a split-level floor plan with 20-foot ceilings and floor-to-ceiling glass windows.
To Close or Not to Close? – Tough Decision Ahead for Preconstruction Contract Holders as Closing Dates Approach
Closing dates are quickly approaching for preconstruction condo holders in several big name developments. Closings continue at Midtown 2 while closings at Latitude on the River and Ten Museum Park began a few weeks ago. Closings at Opera Tower and Onyx on the Bay should begin later this month.
I’m sure a good number of these contract holders have asked themselves whether or not they should close. Most have probably even crunched some numbers to figure out what they should do. With deposit money equal to 20 percent of the total purchase price at stake, it is a very important decision.
The question on everyone’s mind is what percentage of these condo units are owned by investors versus those who intend to occupy the unit. An even better question though is of the investor-owned units, what percentage are owned by people who were looking to flip their unit prior to closing versus those intending to hold long term.
Those who were looking to flip their condo prior to closing most likely had their unit in the developer’s resale program. Each resale program is a bit different and the fees required to resell the unit can vary greatly. Most charge a 6 percent commission as well as a transfer fee which I’ve seen range from as little as .75 percent to as high as 7 percent. For example, Ten Museum Park charges a .75 percent transfer fee, or 6.75 percent when including the commission, while Opera Tower charges a 7 percent transfer fee, or a total of 13 percent when including the commission.
I think Ten Museum Park might have a few forfeited deposits but nothing too serious. It gave contract holders another option besides walking away from their entire deposit. They are allowing contract holders to accept a loss but still get back a portion of their deposit money. This past week I had a client who purchased a unit at Ten Museum Park from a contract holder for $55,000 less than what it was purchased for in January of 2004. The contract holder also paid the 6.75 percent fee which totaled $61,087.50. Of the $181,000 that the contract holder laid down as a deposit, they will see $64,912.50 at closing. It’s a big loss but it is still better than walking away from the entire 20 percent.
Buildings like Opera Tower and Quantum on the Bay, however, are not giving their contract holders many options. They aren’t allowing people to take a loss until after closing. In fact, at Quantum on the Bay, it is required that you list your unit at a minimum of 16 percent above the purchase price. That is insane! Who is going to buy that? You might as well not have your unit in the resale program because it won’t sell. Quantum on the Bay charges a total of 12 percent in fees to resell a unit in their resale program.
Of course, contract holders could do a simultaneous closing to avoid these heavy transfer fees. However, most first time investors are unaware that this option exists. Even if they are aware of this option, they still need to find a replacement buyer or hire a real estate agent to help find one for them.
Time is running out and many are asking whether it is better to close on their unit or walk away from their 20 percent deposit. Keep in mind that most developers charge a developer’s fee which is due at closing. This fee is typically 1.75 percent of the purchase price. Also, units come “decorator-ready” so additional money will be required if you want to have the option of renting it out in case it doesn’t sell. Too many times I have seen people hope that they could quickly flip the unit after closing rather than invest additional money into the unit. The unit ends up sitting on the market for six months and then they decide that they’ll have to rent it out. They would have saved themselves a lot of money if they had prepared to have the option of renting the unit at the beginning rather than wasting six months. You’ll need to spend money to install floors, window treatments, light fixtures and to have the walls painted since most come with the walls only primed.
A lot of people will end up pulling money out at closing to pay for these expenditures. For example, someone might choose to do 90 percent financing so that they can get 10 percent back at closing. That 10 percent will pay the developer’s fee, closing costs and expenses for flooring, window treatments, light fixtures, etc. The money will also help pay the mortgage until the condo is either sold or rented. Unfortunately, in recent times, 90 percent financing isn’t as readily available as it was in the past.
Fantastic Deal in Brickell Key at Brickell Key One
Yesterday I came across a fantastic condo deal in Brickell Key in the building known as Brickell Key One. At $318 per square foot it offers the best price per square foot of all currently listed condo units on the entire island of Brickell Key. The next best price per square foot in all of Brickell Key is listed at $355 per square foot. There are a total of four other units that have a list price that is under $400 per square foot in all of Brickell Key.
According to my June Miami Condo Index for Brickell Key it was shown that condo units on the island are listed at an average price per square foot of $519.97, or $513.19 when using a weighted-average. Condo units sold at an average price per square foot of $433.66, or $430.09 when weight-adjusted. Units listed at Brickell Key One were listed at an average price per square foot of $393.04 and sold at an average price per square foot of $372.15.
Built in 1982, Brickell Key One is the oldest building on Brickell Key and also offers the best price per square foot. At $318 per square foot one might expect this unit to be a total mess but it isn’t. It was recently completely remodeled. The kitchen has solid wood cabinets and top of the line stainless steel appliances. The living areas have marble floors while the bedrooms and hallways have bamboo floors. The unit has a total of 1,725 square feet of interior space and two balconies offering an additional 225 square feet of exterior space. It is a 2 bedroom/2 bathroom unit and is listed for $549,000. The two pictures below will show you what the kitchen looks like.
This is not a foreclosure or short sale, just a very motivated seller. The owner has found a new home and wants to sell this condo at Brickell Key One fast. Even at this great price, the owner will still walk away with a good chunk of profit. He paid $175,000 for the unit in January of 1998.
The maintenance fee for this unit is $725 per month, or 45 cents per square foot. That is really low for Brickell Key. Brickell Key One offers a lot of amenities such as tennis courts, racquetball courts, card room, billiards room, swimming pool, hot tub, fitness center, 24-hour security, barbecue area and free valet parking for guests.
MLS Listings Continue to Grow at Midtown 2
Midtown 2 began closings for condo units around the middle of May 2007. Since that time, there has been an average of 1 to 2 newly listed condo units per day that have appeared on the MLS. I get notified with an email to my Blackberry whenever a new listing appears in the MLS in any of the newly constructed condo buildings so that I become one of the first to know when a great deal becomes available.
In the past two weeks listing activity has really picked up at Midtown 2. The good news is that a good number of people are actually closing on their units. The bad news is that these people are still looking to flip their condos. There’s also a good amount of units listed for rent at Midtown 2. That number will grow as more condo owners finish installing their floors, window treatments, light fixtures, etc. since the units come decorator-ready. Once that occurs, then most will likely place their condos on the market for sale or rent.
Prices at Midtown 2 have come down some in the past couple of weeks as condo owners are now realizing that units are not selling at their current price level. There have been zero closed sales and only one pending sale at this time. 1 bedroom condos currently start at $269,000, 2 bedrooms at $399,000 and 3 bedrooms at $665,000. As of now, the best deals available are the one bedroom listed for $269,000, which comes out to $328 per square foot, and the 2 bedroom listed at $399,000, or $353 per square foot.
I still feel that prices will continue to head south towards the $280-$360 per square foot range but recent prices have me optimistic that pricing will readjust much faster than initially anticipated. It usually takes about 12 months for owners to reach their “pain threshold” but maybe they are finally realizing that the market is much softer than they hoped.
Villa Magna Project Still a Possibility
Reports surfaced a few weeks ago that the Brickell luxury condominium project known as Villa Magna was canceled. Miami Today News reported earlier today that the project may move forward but with a significant change in the development plan. Villa Magna developer, Tibor Hollo, wants to replace 178,506 square feet of condominiums with hotel suites.
The 2.5 acre development site of the $200 million project known as Villa Magna is located at 1201 Brickell Bay Drive. It is the last bayfront parcel in Brickell. The previous plan called for 1,120 total condominium units.
The article mentions that local hospitality experts feel that competing with nearby luxury hotel brands such as the Mandarin Oriental and the Four Seasons Hotel would be a bad move by Mr. Hollo.
It will be interesting to see what becomes of this valuable parcel of land in the coming months. I will keep you posted as new information becomes available.
Flashback to 1983
Yesterday I was given the link to an interesting news article that was published in The New York Times on March 21, 1983 entitled, “Auctioneer’s Gavel Finally Moves Luxury Condominiums in Miami”. You can find that story below or by clicking the link above:
Three hundred people spent a sunny afternoon today in the shade of a big white tent listening to the patter of an auctioneer hawking luxury condominiums, many of which were sold at discounts of 30 to 45 cents on the dollar.
As the market for luxury condominiums remains soft, more developers are taking this route to dispose of their inventory to cut their losses.
About 60 units were sold for $125,000 to $190,000 in the first day of a four-day auction at Biscayne Cove, a luxury high-rise complex overlooking blue waters, nestled among other luxury dwellings in North Miami Beach.
“We decided to auction off and give the people a bargain,” said Morton Littlemen, a representative of the developers. “We want to give the people a condominium they can afford to own.”
One two-bedroom penthouse that was originally offered for $248,000 was sold for a high bid of $150,000. Condominium prices in the two-building complex range from $100,000 to $334,000.
Biscayne Cove is the fifth such auction that Martin Higgenbotham, an auctioneer, has handled in the last year for the developers, subsidiaries of Cadillac Fairview Corporation and Southeast Florida Properties. It is, Mr. Higgenbotham said, the largest single condominium auction in Florida: 225 units on the block at a value of $46 million. It is more than the total of 152 units sold at the other four complexes in Miami Beach and Hallandale.
The condominium auction business has been “heavy,” Mr. Higgenbotham said. In the last 12 months his company has sold about 1,000 condominiums at auction. Previously it handled 250 units in an average year.
The decision to auction the properties was not taken lightly, according to Lewis Goodkin, a real estate consultant whose firm conducted a marketing study for Biscayne Cove and recommended the auction for fast results. “The purpose is, let’s get out of this stuff and let’s get out of it fast,” he said. Normal advertising and deep discounting is “like a prolonged agony.”
Mr. Goodkin’s study concluded that, even under good conditions, it would take three years for the market to absorb existing inventory and that it did not pay for developers to hold onto the property. “We have in Miami today the most overbuilt luxury condominium market in the country,” Mr. Goodkin said.
He foresaw more auctions of this magnitude. “When the last recession hit us, we had a lot more inventory, but the inventory was more affordable,” he said. “A tremendous number of the public could respond. It could be absorbed. Today, our big invetory is in the luxury ranges where the market is not deep and you don’t have the response from the South American markets because their economy is weak or low.”
While the glut is most severe in Miami, it is not exclusive to this area, Mr. Goodkin said.
Is this the fate of the luxury condo units that will come to market in the next 12-24 months in Miami? 20,000! That is the number that has been thrown around for the number of new condo units that will close in 2007 and 2008. It is difficult to imagine that a supply of that magnitude can be absorbed in such a short period of time. It will be interesting to see what percentage of people walk away from deposits rather than close. If a significant portion walk then developers will likely be forced to take immediate action which could recall memories of 1983.
An Analytical Analysis of Analyzing Condominiums
People often ask me why I chose to focus on condominiums rather than single family homes when I began my career in real estate. I guess the answer is mainly attributable to my formal education and the work experience I gained after graduating college.
As mentioned in the About Me section of this site, I graduated from the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Finance with a specialization in Investments. After graduation, I worked as an equity options trader on the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange for four years.
It became second nature for me to begin to analogize most aspects of my life in investment terms. Condominiums to me had similar homogeneous characteristics as that of a financial security than single family homes.
In my opinion, it is much easier to analyze the true market value of a condominium than it is for a single family home. A price per square foot analysis of condo units in a building, and even a neighborhood, reveals more truth than the price per square foot analysis of single family homes on a particular street or in a particular neighborhood.
A 2 bedroom condo in a particular building, in many instances, will have the same characteristics of another 2 bedroom condo in that same building, such as shared common areas, amenities, year built, square footage, appliances, floor plan, maintenance fees, view, parking spaces and so on. Any differentiations in the aforementioned qualities can be easily adjusted in the value of the subject property versus comparable properties.
It is much more difficult to assess the value of a single family home. It is common to see a small, outdated home situated right down the street from a large, recently built home. Of course there are ways to appraise the values of each by making adjustments for any differentiations in each home but it just isn’t the same, in my mind. A home buyer may fall in love with one home while he or she finds the home right down the street an eyesore.
It becomes much more expensive to turn a home down the street into your dream home than it is to turn a condo down the hallway into your ideal abode. The expense of replacing or changing the floors, paint job, window treatments, light fixtures and other elements of a condo can more easily be ascertained.
These thoughts guided me into the decision of choosing to specialize in condominiums over single family homes when I began my career in real estate. As the housing bubble talk began to escalate a few years ago, I began to think of how nice it would be conceive a way to hedge real estate investments for the average home purchaser or investor in case of a bubble-popping scenario.
I guess fellow Chicagoans at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange had similar thoughts. They created a tradable home market index based upon the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which measures home prices based on recorded changes in home values and a repeat sales methodology.
The futures and options instruments that were enacted by the CME began trading in May of 2006. The purpose was to offer jittery homeowners a way to hedge the investment in their homes against future price declines. The CME also saw a large interest from investors to directly participate in the much-talked-about housing market.
While being a giant leap in the right direction, the CME’s housing index is far from perfect. They introduced tradable securities based upon large metropolitan areas which include the following: Miami, Chicago, Boston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Washington, as well as a weighted composite index.
However, it is difficult to adequately hedge the value of a condo in a building such as The Setai in South Beach from a condo in a boutique building in Hialeah using their index.
I have decided to create my own, localized, index. This index will be based upon market data derived from major condo buildings in Miami. I will create a graphical representation of a six-month price per square foot moving average using data of closed sales and a month-to-month price per square foot analysis of units currently on the market. I may include other relevant statistics in the future to provide more in-depth information relevant to the Miami condo market. I hope you guys trading the Miami housing index at the CME appreciate the information. I’d love to hear from you.
I plan to release an index update each week. At the outset, I will rotate Miami neighborhoods for a total of four neighborhoods (South Beach, Brickell, Arts & Design District and Miami Beach minus South Beach). In the future I plan to add Downtown Miami and Park West as its own index once the nearly constructed buildings in those areas are fully built.
I’ve decided to name my index the “Miami Condo Index”, or MCI for short. Obviously my index won’t be tradable as is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s housing index, but I hope that it will provide more insight to localized housing markets throughout Miami’s major neighborhoods.
The Miami Condo Index will launch next week with an in-depth look at Brickell.
I urge other Realtors throughout the country to create their own localized housing indices to fully encompass their own markets and provide market transparency to home buyers like no other.
Foreclosure Listings at Vue at Brickell Doubles in Three Weeks
On May 24, 2007 I posted an entry entitled, “Vue at Brickell – Overpriced or Insanely Overpriced?“, in which I questioned the average price per square foot of the condo units at a building called Vue at Brickell. I surmised that mortgage fraud may have been partly at fault for prices at Vue at Brickell reaching such irrational levels.
At that time there were three listed foreclosure units in the building. Now, there are a total of six. In three weeks the number of the listed units that are currently in the foreclosure process have doubled. Those are just the ones that are listed. I’m sure there are others. Below you will see those six listings, as well as relevant property information.
(FL#=floor number, #BEDS=number of bedrooms, #FB=number of full baths, #HB=number of half baths, LA=living area square footage, LP$=list price, LP$/SqFt=average price per square foot, #GAR=number of parking spaces, WTRFR=waterfront?)
I find it humorous that two of the listings categorize Vue at Brickell as being a waterfront building. It is far from being a waterfront building.
As you can see, the average price per square foot of the listed foreclosure units at Vue at Brickell is currently $475.81. The non-foreclosure units in the building have a much higher price per square foot. Only one of the six listings penetrated the $400 per square foot mark on the downside. Mark my words, within 18 months the majority of condo listings in Vue at Brickell, both foreclosure and non-foreclosure, will be under $400 per square foot. The availability of such a large number of newly constructed condo units within the next 18 months, in much higher-end buildings, will be the driving force. These buildings already offer price points below $400 per square foot and the growing supply will push those prices even lower.
It now more important than ever that you research various buildings in the neighborhood and receive a comparative market analysis when making a home purchase to ensure that you are making a wise investment. You know what they say…”Buying a home is the most important investment that you’ll make in your life”.
