You may have noticed that some of the June numbers have changed. This is because I originally took out the closed sales that were obviously due to mortgage fraud. I recently went back and included those sales because I wanted to present things just as they were. However, this made listings appear to be priced more accurately, which they aren’t. To condo owners, and to some Realtors not in the know, these fraudulent transactions have made their listings appear justified. They need to realize that these transactions are just that, fraudulent, and very inaccurate.
The average price per square foot of condo units listed in the 18 Brickell buildings covered in my index dropped $7.44 since last month. A drop in the price of condos listed in Brickell over the last month was highly expected. I actually thought that prices would have come down even more though. These 18 buildings in Brickell had an average price per square foot of $528.84 this month versus $536.28 in June. The weighted average price per square foot was $540.17 for July versus $547.06 in June.
The most shocking thing that the July Brickell condo index revealed was the number of transactions that occurred in one month’s time. There are a total of 5,348 condo units represented in the 18 buildings that comprise my Brickell condo index. Take a guess at how many units have closed from June 19, 2007 to July 18, 2007.
Had enough time to come up with a guesstimate? Nine. That’s the number of units that sold during that time period throughout the 18 buildings that make up the Brickell condo index. Everyone knows the market is slow but I don’t think anyone could have guessed to what extent. Nine! I still can’t get that out of my head. There are a total of 875 units available on the market right now in those 18 buildings. This equates to 16.36 percent of the total units. This number is actually much higher in many of the newer buildings. Many of the older buildings have 20 or less listings in the entire building. The instability lies in the newer buildings; the buildings that were heavily funded by speculators.
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the past six months in Brickell actually went up slightly. But keep in mind that there were nine transactions in all 18 buildings. Most Realtors would focus on the fact that prices are actually going up. However, I will tell you, first hand, that these numbers are attributed to fraudulent transactions. The price per square foot went from $471.76, in June, to $473.95, in July. Most of this was due to a transaction that appears to be fraudulent at The Sail on Brickell.
The reason why I feel that this transaction is fraudulent is for a number of reasons. One, the unit was sold at the highest price per square foot in the building with concrete floors, two, the broker is a discount broker who charges 4 percent per transaction, three, in every transaction he seems to find the buyer and already holds the listing, and four, he finds the buyer within four days. I did a search by the broker’s email to see what other transactions have occurred. I’m not going to name names but let’s just say that this broker has at least six transactions where this has occurred. The same exact thing. He finds a buyer to acquire a condo at The Sail on Brickell within four days at the highest price possible. Let me tell you, firsthand as a Realtor, that it is hard enough to find a buyer in this market to buy something at the best price available. How is this guy finding a buyer at the highest price available? Within 4 days? Like I said, I’m not going to name names but something fishy is going on there. If someone, like the Miami Herald, wants to investigate this thoroughly and name me as the source, then so be it, but I’m not divulging names. I don’t want to have a hit-man after me. Hopefully I’m wrong about what has occurred in The Sail at Brickell, but I doubt it.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | 14.86%
The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 2.70%
The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 1.01%
The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 8.68%
Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 30.64%
Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | 1.53%
Imperial at Brickell Open House Tonight – Opportunity to Tour Six Beautiful Condos
Real Living Properties and Arch Realty are showcasing six beautiful condos tonight at Imperial at Brickell from 6pm-8pm. This is a great opportunity to see why Imperial at Brickell is one of the best values in the area. The building is currently undergoing a beautification project which was paid for through a recent special assessment. New owners will be able to enjoy the benefits of these improvements.
The Brickell Condo Index for June revealed that, over the previous six months, Imperial at Brickell offered the second best price per square foot of the major developments throughout Brickell. It had an average price per square foot of $319.56. Imperial at Brickell is well known for its large balconies, spacious layouts with powder rooms and having some of the lowest maintenance fees in the area. All in one of the most architecturally significant buildings in Miami. You have probably seen it on CSI: Miami if you watch that show.
RSVP is required because we will be featuring a different type of wine at each unit. Please call me at 786-247-6332. Imperial at Brickell is located at 1627 Brickell Avenue.
Il Villagio Penthouse – $17,750,000 – A Look at an Ultra-Luxury Condo
Many of you may have wondered, at some time or another, what a $15M+ condo looks like in South Beach. So, let’s take a look at the two-story penthouse condo at Il Villaggio that is listed for $17,750,000. It has an amazing 5,700 square feet with 3 bedrooms, 4 full baths, 2 half baths, a 12-camera security system, private rooftop terrace with pool and Jacuzzi, 4 parking spaces and much, much more. Il Villagio is located on one of the most well-known streets in South Beach, Ocean Drive, at 1455 Ocean Drive. Two words came to mind when I saw this condo: “bad ass”! Make sure to take a look at the MLS listing for more information.
Cocaine Cowboys – The Rise of Miami in the 1970s and 1980s
I finally got a chance to watch the movie “Cocaine Cowboys” last night. I’ve been trying to rent it at Blockbuster for months but it was always checked out. I stumbled upon it on the Internet last night and watched every minute of it. For those of you unfamiliar with the movie, “Cocaine Cowboys”, it is a documentary that tells of the rise of Miami in the 1970s and 1980s. Much of the city’s growth during this time period was attributed to the heavy inflow of drug money, particularly through the distribution of cocaine.
The reason why I’m posting about this movie is because it has great footage of how the Miami and Miami Beach skylines have changed. I found it interesting to see how various neighborhoods looked and definitely learned a lot about Miami during those decades. In one shot, towards the end of the movie, found below, it shows an aerial view of Brickell Key with only one building on the entire island. That building was Brickell Key I which was built in 1982. The rest of the island was completely empty. With the future completion of Asia, the island of Brickell Key will be fully complete. There are rumors, however, that the Mandarin Oriental Hotel will build residences on the small plot of land just east of the hotel. If those rumors prove to be true, with the backing of the Mandarin Oriental Hotel’s name attached, that development will be one hot commodity.
The cranes at the foreground in the still below look to be from the development of the Wachovia Financial Center building which was completed in 1984. The building to the left is the Intercontinental Hotel. Until the rise of the Four Seasons Hotel and Residences in 2004, the Wachovia Financial Center building, standing at 55 stories, was the tallest building in Miami. For those of you not local to Miami, Brickell Key is the triangular-shaped island found in the background of the picture below.
Brickell Key then:
Brickell Key now:
If you’re a fan of the movie “Scarface” then you’ll definitely love “Cocaine Cowboys”. After viewing the Internet copy, I ordered the DVD on Amazon.com last night. It is the true-to-life representation of the events that inspired the making of “Scarface”. View it for yourself. The following is hosted on Google and was uploaded by someone unbeknownst to me.
Warning: The following movie is Rated-R due to pervasive drug content, language and violence. Watch it at your own risk!
Opera Tower Closings to Begin in September
In a previous post I stated that I heard closings at Opera Tower would begin in July. However, I confirmed today that this was inaccurate. Closings will begin in September for condo units on the first 21 floors of Opera Tower. I was told that closings on the remaining floors would begin in October. Opera Tower sent this letter to contract holders at the beginning of June. It provides important information regarding closings.
It will be interesting to see what happens there. Opera Tower has a total of 635 condo units made up of studios, one and two bedroom condos. That’s a lot of units coming onto the market given the current condition of the Miami real estate market. I think closings at Opera Tower will help reveal the true nature of the market at this time. It will act as a prologue to what will happen at other developments scheduled to begin closings in the next 12 months. It will be important to keep an eye on closings, or lack of closings, that occur at Opera Tower.
My prediction is that the developer of Opera Tower will get back a lot of units. It is a shame that the developer charges 13 percent of the sales price to contract holders who want to resell their contract. It would be in the best interest of the developer to help these contract holders, who are primarily investors, get their unit into the hands of an end-user. Many of these investors are looking to break-even or accept a small loss. With a 13 percent resale fee, however, it makes this nearly impossible. This will come back to bite the developer of Opera Tower in the ass. As of now, the best deal through the developer for an east facing unit is one priced at $509,000. It is on the 21st floor. That comes out to $485 per square foot. I think within six months we’ll see 2 bedrooms at Opera Tower priced below $400,000.
Midtown 2 was a recent large development to begin closings. Closings there began about a month and a half ago. Last week the South Florida Business Journal reported that 17 contract holders at Midtown 2, who want out of their contracts, filed a class action lawsuit against the developer. The attorney representing the plaintiffs is also planning a class action lawsuit representing contract holders of Midtown 4. This lawsuit could spell trouble for all developers if the judge rules in favor of the plaintiffs.
Where Will Prices Be 12-24 Months From Now in Brickell?
Most people would agree that as of right now Brickell and Brickell Key are the luxury neighborhoods of Miami for condominiums. This may change in the future as new luxury neighborhoods have begun to emerge, but as of right now Brickell and Brickell Key hold this title.
It is no secret that Brickell has a large number of condo units coming to market over the next 24 months. Some of these waterfront and non-waterfront preconstruction buildings in Brickell sold for prices well over $400, $500, and even $600 per square foot when sales were launched during the peak of the real estate market in 2005. Were these condo units sold too high? Where should prices be trading given that the supply far exceeds the demand over the next 24 months in Brickell? Where will prices end up for the new condo units that are coming to market over the next couple of years?
Let me try to dissect these questions. Most people would now answer yes to the first question. At the time, however, interest rates were low, prices were soaring and the market was fueled by speculators looking to profit from the buying frenzy. Two years later, the market is in a completely different state. Speculative investors are nowhere to be found, interest rates continue to climb and thousands of new condo units are set to close in the next 24 months. Earlier this week, ABCNews.com published an article entitled, “Real Estate Fool’s Gold”, which highlighted the overdevelopment problem that Miami is facing. Many investors have hired attorneys to find loopholes in their preconstruction contracts to find a way out, and in effect prevent them from losing money.
Prices will continue to go down until an equilibrium of supply and demand is reached. The question still remains though of “how far down will prices go?”. The Brickell condo index for June provided insight as to how inflated prices have become in Brickell. Some of this was due to the rampant mortgage fraud occurring throughout Brickell, but it was mainly fueled by speculators looking to flip their preconstruction condo contracts for a nice profit.
The South Beach condo index, published yesterday, revealed that prices there are almost one and a half times that of Brickell. However, prices in South Beach have far more stability due to the supply and demand relationship being much closer to equilibrium. An overdevelopment problem doesn’t exist in South Beach like we have in Brickell. This is largely due to the Historic Preservation Committee in South Beach keeping developers in check with stringent development guidelines. Demand to own South Beach property is also much higher. Less supply/more demand equals more stability and therefore less problematic pricing.
I feel that the buildings currently under construction in Brickell, set to be completed in the next 12-24 months, will have problems maintaining the price levels that units were sold for at the peak of the real estate bubble. There will be many opportunities in the months to come to buy at discounted prices in these new developments. This in turn will drive prices down throughout the overall neighborhood of Brickell. I feel that more pricing stability can be found in the buildings that have been around for over five years such as the ones found at the southern end of Brickell Avenue. These include such names as The Palace, Imperial at Brickell, Bristol Tower, Atlantis on Brickell, Santa Maria and Villa Regina.
Next week, I will reveal the second installment of the Brickell condo index. I have a feeling that prices have come down quite a bit in buildings such as Vue at Brickell, Club at Brickell Bay and Jade where much of the mortgage fraud occurred. As a result, each building now has quite a few foreclosures listings. This Miami real estate blog will continue to provide the unbiased insight that you seek.
Miami Condo Index – South Beach – July 2007
I realize that South Beach is not located within the Miami city boundaries. South Beach resides in the city of Miami Beach, which in itself is a separate city from Miami. I felt compelled, however, to include a South Beach condo index due to much interest in condominiums located in South Beach, and because I conduct a significant portion of my business in South Beach. Besides…if I didn’t provide this information then who would?
It was much more difficult to create a South Beach condo index than it was for Brickell or Brickell Key. There are so many more buildings to consider in South Beach. I didn’t want to only include the luxury buildings residing in South Beach but also didn’t want to include each and every small development located in the 33139 zip code either. I wanted to create a South Beach condo index that encompassed all of South Beach. To a nonlocal person, I wanted to provide a transparent look into the South Beach real estate market. Like I said though, I didn’t want to include each and every small development throughout all of South Beach either. The overall average price per square foot in South Beach would be significantly less than the figures below if one were to include every condo building in South Beach.
I instead chose to include those developments that are the most well known to South Beach locals. I realize that I’ve omitted a few but after much consideration, I decided on the following 19 buildings found below. The condo units at Flamingo South Beach will be considered at a future date once the entire development has been converted into condominiums and more resales are available. Other new developments may also be considered once additional resale information can be obtained. That being said, the following have made the South Beach graduating class of July 2007. Alongside each development, you will find the average price per square foot of units currently available for sale on the MLS.
Overall, the numbers did not surprise me too much. The only one that shocked me was Meridian Lofts but there’s a unit listed there for $4,000,000, or $1,140.25 per square foot. That increased the overall average. To someone unfamiliar with the South Beach real estate market the numbers above might seem ridiculous, but to those familiar with the local market, these numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise. The average price per square foot for condos currently listed in South Beach using the 19 buildings above came out to $913.19. The weight-adjust average came out to $793.99. The weight-adjusted average is significantly less due to the fact that Mirador 1000 and Mirador 1200 represent almost 18 percent of the overall units used in the index. It also has the lowest average price per square foot of all the buildings included in the index which helped to provide a better representation of the overall South Beach condo market. Although the average price per square foot in South Beach was almost one and a half times that of Brickell, the numbers in the June 2007 Brickell index were much more shocking to me.
The numbers below will show the average price per square foot in these buildings based on closed sales of condos in each building over the last six months.
Murano at Portofino – 1000 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | $962.09
Murano Grande – 400 Alton Rd | 33139 | $771.10
Portofino Tower – 300 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | $919.28
Setai – 101 20 St | 33139 | $1,733.20
Waverly at South Beach – 1330 West Ave | 33139 | $474.57
Yacht Club at Portofino – 90 Alton Rd | 33139 | $665.19
Overall, the price per square foot of units sold in these buildings over the last six months was $772.36, or $686.73 when weight-adjusted. I was surprised to see that the average price per square foot for condos sold over the last six months at Grand Venetian was under $500. I would have expected this to be significantly higher. I also thought that 1500 Ocean Drive and Icon would have been higher as well. It is amazing to see The Setai at $1,733.20 per square foot but it wasn’t particularly surprising. The Setai is known to be the ultra-luxury building of South Beach. I think we’ll see the average price per square foot at The Floridian and The Cosmopolitan come down some as both buildings have a number of preforeclosures and foreclosures in them.
The figures below will show the sold-to-listed ratio as a percentage. For example, as you will see below, 1500 Ocean Drive had an average price per square foot of condo units sold that was 50.34% of the average price per square foot of condo units listed. You’ll notice that the figures for Bentley Beach and Portofino Tower are in parentheses. Both of these had a higher average price per square foot of units sold in the past six months than those that are currently listed.
1500 Ocean Drive – 1500 Ocean Dr | 33139 | 50.34%
Bentley Bay – 520 & 540 West Ave | 33139 | 25.57%
Bentley Beach – 101 Ocean Dr | 33139 | (9.56%)
Continuum South Tower – 100 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | 22.16%
Cosmopolitan – 110 Washington Ave | 33139 | 9.79%
Courts at South Beach – 140 Jefferson Ave | 33139 | 16.18%
Decoplage – 100 Lincoln Rd | 33139 | 20.82%
Floridian – 650 West Ave | 33139 | 9.13%
Grand Venetian – 10 Venetian Wy | 33139 | 26.36%
Icon – 450 Alton Rd | 33139 | 20.70%
Il Villagio – 1455 Ocean Dr | 33139 | 48.58%
Meridian Lofts – 2001 Meridian Ave | 33139 | 30.25%
Murano at Portofino – 1000 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | 26.92%
Murano Grande – 400 Alton Rd | 33139 | 12.55%
Portofino Tower – 300 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | (1.85%)
Setai – 101 20 St | 33139 | 13.08%
Waverly at South Beach – 1330 West Ave | 33139 | 12.23%
Yacht Club at Portofino – 90 Alton Rd | 33139 | 12.04%
A few of the figures are a bit misleading. 1500 Ocean Drive, Il Villagio and Continuum have active listings that are priced at over $15M. These listings skewed the overall average price per square foot for units listed in those buildings which in turn through off the sold-to-listed percentages.
That concludes the South Beach condo index for July 2007. Next week I’ll return with another look at the condos in Brickell. It’ll be interesting to see how things have changed in a month’s time.
2 Bedroom Foreclosure at Carbonell in Brickell Key
There’s a 2 bedroom/2.5 bath foreclosure that just became available over the weekend at Carbonell in Brickell Key. Built in 2005, Carbonell is Brickell Key’s most recent addition. The foreclosure unit is the best priced 2 bedroom unit in the entire building by quite a lot. It is listed at $649,900. The next best priced 2 bedroom at Carbonell is listed at $799,000. It is a bank owned property. Tax records show that there was an original mortgage on the property in the amount of $700,000. At the time of repossession, the mortgage amount owed was $699,627.
The foreclosure unit has 1,558 square feet of interior space, which equates to about $417 per square foot. The next best priced 2 bedroom condo at Carbonell is listed at $544 per square foot, located on the sixth floor, or one floor above the foreclosure unit. Taking a look at the Miami Condo Index for Brickell Key in June 2007 will reveal that Carbonell had an average list price of $592.56 per square foot, while having an average sales price $473.04 per square foot over the preceding six months.
In my experience, I’ve seen banks willing to accept what might seem like a crazy offer just to get the property off of their books. This could be a great opportunity to own a 2 bedroom at Carbonell for under $600,000. This past March, a 2 bedroom/2.5 bath sold for $700,000. It was located in the same line as the foreclosure unit, exactly one floor above it.
Update: Price was reduced to $634,900 on July 26, 2007.
Opportunity to Own a 1 Bedroom in Tower 2 of the Luxurious Icon Brickell
A few days ago I received an email from a gentleman who holds a preconstruction contract for a 1 bedroom in Tower 2 of Icon Brickell. He prefers not to close on the unit and wanted me to find out if there’s any interest in his unit from someone looking to acquire a condo at Icon Brickell. Even though the market has slowed, I still think there will be interest due to the reputation that the “Icon” brand has created. The “Icon” brand has become synonymous with ultra-luxury living and the Icon Brickell development will be one of the finest in all of Brickell.
The gentleman was originally supposed to receive a contract for a 1 bedroom in Tower 1 of Icon Brickell but due to high demand that tower quickly sold out. The developer, The Related Group, did however give him a 1 bedroom in Tower 2 at the same price that he was promised a 1 bedroom unit in Tower 1. It is a G floor plan with 984 square feet of interior space and a 137 square foot terrace. The unit is located on a high floor above the 30th.
His price per square foot of $486 is pretty amazing given that units in that same line sold for slightly over $750 per square foot. I spoke with a sales representative at Icon Brickell today to get a feel for how pricing will be once resales begin. She notified me that The Related Group has no plans to launch a resale program for Icon Brickell. I asked her why and she said that resale programs are only launched for their projects when they feel that the market can absorb it. She continued to add that because the market is currently soft they don’t feel that this is the case at this time. Icon Brickell has been sold out of one bedroom units in Towers 1 and 2 for quite some time. I asked her if she could remember what a G line unit was selling for before they sold out. She told me that there was a G line unit on the 46th floor that sold for $750,000.
The gentleman who contacted me is looking to resell his 1 bedroom at Icon Brickell. His asking price is $599,000. A simultaneous closing would need to be done since the developer is not allowing contracts to be assigned at this time. Icon Brickell is scheduled to begin closings towards the end of 2008. If you or someone you know has an interest in acquiring this unit, please drop me an email or give me a call.
Check out the picture slideshow below for more renderings of the Icon Brickell project:
