I arrived at La Guardia Airport in New York City on Tuesday afternoon. The good news was that the weather was fantastic. It was in the high 60s, which was unprecedented in New York City for the month of January. The weather was just what I needed after arriving in Chicago last week on the coldest day of the Winter season (I think it was something like 15 degrees below zero with wind chill). Brrrrr!!! In fact, the first thing I did when arriving in Chicago was to go to Target and buy some long underwear. It was that freakin’ cold! I used to live in downtown Chicago for 4 years so I should know cold, but that day was damn cold! Maybe living in Miami for so long has made my blood thin out a bit or something.
My arrival in New York City, however, soon turned sour after learning that my luggage was lost by American Airlines. Regardless, I checked into my hotel and tried to make the best of my trip. My luggage did finally arrive at 3am that night (the next morning).
Last week, I wrote a post mentioning that I would be in New York City from January 8-11 for the Real Estate Connect NYC 2008 Conference. I was contacted by one hedge fund analyst and two investment groups that wanted to meet me while I stayed in New York City. They each had an interest in the Miami condo market.
Today, I attended the first day of the Real Estate Connect Conference and listened to a few industry leaders speak about the market. I also picked up some great information in conversations with people in the hallways as well as the hedge fund analyst that I met with later in the evening.
Okay…enough with the boring stuff. Let’s get to the goods! The following is the rumor mill that was revealed to me throughout the day. This is just what I’ve heard. I am in no way saying that the rumors are true (although these rumors came from accredited sources).
WCI will declare bankruptcy within the next two weeks. Shares of WCI, the developer of One Bal Harbour, dropped 52.98% today on worries that WCI will declare bankruptcy. Standard & Poor affirmed WCI’s junk rating status and provided a negative outlook for the company. (Can you say “Pink Sheet”?) WCI was provided an extension until January 16, 2008. That’s a very short extension. My source disclosed to me tonight that the bank is probably finally realizing that it is in their best interest to pursue bankruptcy proceedings rather than delay the inevitable. The mathematics makes sense for the bank to do so. Most banks loaned about 65 percent of the total construction costs. As of right now, according to public records, WCI has closed 50.3 percent of the condo units at One Bal Harbour. If I were the bank holding onto the construction loan for One Bal Harbour, I would foreclose on this development immediately. The lender could at least offset their other losses with the gains they may realize with the sale of the defaulted units at One Bal Harbour. They know that it’s a strong development…I know that it’s a strong development. Until the investment funds step in, however, there’s still a lot of risk.
Marina Blue closings have been pushed back 2 months and possibly even longer. I heard this rumor when I was in Miami on Monday but I didn’t accept it until tonight. I’ve heard that Marina Blue has no clue when closings will begin. Somebody please tell me that I’m wrong! I’ve heard this one from multiple sources though.
Opera Tower is delaying closings another month. I’ve heard this one from multiple sources as well. What the hell is going on with this development? It keeps delaying its closings. Weren’t closings supposed to realistically begin around September? I was recently misquoted about Opera Tower in the papers. I was quoted as saying something along the lines that Opera Tower will have a 50 percent default rate. I actually said that Opera Tower will have at least a 50 percent default rate. Just my opinion though. Also, just my opinion is that this development is doomed. There’s a large lawsuit against the developer of Opera Tower. You may think I’m crazy but I think in six months my 50 percent default rate for Opera Tower will be considered an overzealous prediction.
Here’s the big one. Countrywide Financial Corporation is going to declare bankruptcy within the next three weeks. Countrywide has lost about 44 percent of its value within the past 5 days. Rumors around Wall Street are that this turkey is just about roasted and ready to be eaten. We should see this one fall soon…and it’ll make a huge thud on the Street when it does.
This one isn’t so much a rumor. Quantum on the Bay began closings and the development isn’t even close to being completed. (From what I’ve heard) TCO was granted in order to avoid a lawsuit pertaining to how long the development took to be completed. My guess (and only my guess) is that some money (maybe a lot) was transferred between the developer and city to get the TCO done to avoid lawsuits against the developer.
A Year in Review for the Miami Condo Investments Blog
As a year-end post, I decided to go through all of the posts that I’ve written about the Miami condo market in 2007 to highlight my five favorite posts. This blog was born on May 12, 2007, so it’s really a 7 1/2-month review. It’s amazing that I’ve been able to find the time to write 180 posts since that time. The following five posts weren’t necessarily the most popular, although a few were, but rather just my own personal favorites. These are the blog posts that I felt were both insightful and well written. Is there a Miami Blogging Pulitzer Prize in existence yet?
I’d love to hear which Miami condo post was your favorite of 2007.
Marina Blue – A Repeat Performance for Hyperion Development or a New Chance to Shine?
A very interesting article regarding the condo development called Marina Blue was published yesterday in the International Herald Tribune. The article focuses on Hyperion Development, the developer of Marina Blue, and its damaged reputation as a result of the large “delays and unhappy buyers” at its first development called Blue.
Some residents at the first tower, named Blue, are threatening to sue the company for not delivering on amenities while other owners at the 330-unit complex are trying to sell their condos for less than they paid.
Blue’s problems have hurt Hyperion’s reputation enough that consultants say that some buyers who put down deposits at the company’s second tower, the 516-unit Marina Blue, may decide not to close. Other Marina Blue buyers have sued to get their deposits back.
The problems raise questions about the ability of Hyperion to repay a $110 million construction loan as well as its ability to develop future projects in the Miami market.
It will be interesting to see if Hyperion Development has learned its lesson and delivers all amenities and common areas completely done at Marina Blue. I know from reading the comments that are left here, that this is a HUGE concern of contract holders of condos at Marina Blue and those who have an interest in purchasing a condo there. Sales agents at the Marina Blue sales office have assured me that all common areas will be delivered when closings begin but I won’t believe it until I see it. Closings are scheduled to begin within the next week, so we won’t have to wait long to see if those promises were kept. You can be sure that I’ll be keeping a close eye on how closings go at Marina Blue in the upcoming months.
Miami Condos in Brickell – Red Hot Foreclosure and Short-Sale Condo Deals!
Before anyone takes me seriously, let me first just say that the headline above was meant to be a joke. Once you see the “hot” short-sale and foreclosure deals in the Brickell condo buildings below, you’ll know what I mean. Goes to show that just because a condo is listed as a short-sale or foreclosure doesn’t mean that it is priced well.
I’m not sure why listings like the ones above even make it into the MLS. It’s a complete waste of time in my eyes.
How to Sell Your Condo or House in the Current Real Estate Market
The following video provides great insight as to how sellers in the current real estate market should be realistic in pricing their home or condo if they are truly motivated to sell.
Oh yeah, and in case you missed it….DON’T OVERPRICE YOUR HOME! If you interview three agents and you decide to go with the agent that is willing to list your home at the highest price, then good luck!
New Construction Condo Deals in the Arts District, Brickell, Downtown Miami, and South Beach
As closing dates for some of South Florida’s newest condo developments quickly approaches, the motivation from contract holders to sell is becoming increasingly apparent. I’ve been receiving a lot of phone calls and emails from contract holders, within the past couple of weeks, who are looking for me to help them find a replacement buyer.
In some cases the contract holders are willing to accept a loss on their contract price in order to retain a portion of the deposit that was made 3-4 years ago. Below you will find some of the better deals that I’ve come across:
Unit ??? – 2 bedroom/2.5 bath NW corner unit – 1,491 SF – $1.86M
Unit ??? – 2 bedroom/2.5 bath NW corner unit – 1,922SF – $3.35M
Unit ??? – 3 bedroom/3.5 bath NE corner – 3,497 SF (4 balconies) – $4.2M
If you’re a contract holder and you’re motivated to sell then feel free to email me details of your condo and the price that you are willing to accept. Most developer contracts do not allow you to market your unit outside the sales center, so I will post general information here on the blog to see if a buyer emerges.
I’ll match buyers and sellers together. The sales centers are in some cases charging higher than normal sales commissions and transfer fees which make it virtually impossible for contract holders to get their units into the hands of end-users. I’m hoping that this blog will help contract holders to get some of their money back, end-users to find a great deal and developers to have less defaulted units. The way I see it is a win-win-win situation for everyone involved.
By the way, I’ve added a link to this post on my “Deals” page and will be adding to the list above intermittently.
Some Great Deals at Today’s Real Estate Auction!!!
I wasn’t able to attend this morning’s real estate auction, held at the Miami Beach Convention Center, but did learn the results of several condos that were auctioned. From what I’ve heard, there were more people in attendance at this auction than the Hudson & Marshall auction held on October 21, 2007, which I did attend. However, properties auctioned today sold for much less.
Below are the results of some of the condos that were auctioned this morning:
Courvoisier Courts – Unit 2312 – 3/2.5 – 1,655 SF (Brickell Key) – $540,000
Isola – Unit 1509 – 1/1 – 735 SF – (Brickell Key) – $185,000
Jade at Brickell Bay – Unit 502 – 2/2 – 1,460 SF – (Brickell) – $625,000
The Club at Brickell Bay – Unit 2603 – 1/1 – 825 SF (Brickell) – $175,000
The Club at Brickell Bay – Unit 3102 – 3/2 – 1,232 SF (Brickell) – $225,000
The Club at Brickell Bay – Unit 3202 – 3/2 – 1,232 SF (Brickell) – $270,000
The Cosmopolitan – Unit 2603 – 2/2 – 1,010 SF (South Beach) – $405,000
Vue at Brickell – Unit 811 – 1/1.5 – 796 SF (Brickell) – $180,000
Vue at Brickell – Unit 3606 – 3/2 – 1,551 SF (Brickell) – $290,000
It’s interesting to note that the units at The Club at Brickell Bay and Vue at Brickell sold in the range of $187-$226 per square foot. I think we’ll be seeing much more of this in the months to come. The high bidders of the units in these two buildings at the Hudson & Marshall auction simply overpaid.
The two units at Jade sold for around $425 per square foot. I think the BL45 unit is a terrific buy!
In June of this year, I submitted an offer of $440,000 for a client on unit 2603 at The Cosmopolitan when it was a short-sale. The bank rejected our offer. We were prepared to close within 30 days. It sold today for $405,000. This happens all the time! It really frustrates me which I why I rarely will deal with a short-sale. Banks just don’t get it yet! It’s a better use of my time to wait until the bank takes it back and have my client buy it for much less.
The First of Many Big Bulk Purchases to Occur
I realize that I’m late to disclose the following information but I thought I’d write a post about it anyways.
There are many of you out there that read about this major transaction on Monday, as I did, in the Wall Street Journal or the many other online and print publications that were released that day. However, I’m sure there are some of you that are unaware of what transpired Monday morning.
Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), a major Miami-based homebuilder in the United States, revealed Monday morning that they sold a substantial portfolio of properties at a large discount. These properties were previously valued by Lennar at $1.3 billion dollars as of September 30, 2007.
The portfolio, consisting of “about 11,000 homesites in 32 communities nationally, consisting of raw land and both partially and fully developed homesites in California, Colorado, Florid, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada and New Jersey,” was sold to a joint venture which consisted of an 80 percent stake by major Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley for $525 Million, or about 40 cents on the dollar. Lennar Corp. will own the other 20 percent stake and receive fees for managing the properties.
I think we’ll see more and more of these bulk deals occur in 2008. A major hedge fund analyst that I spoke with on Monday told me that Lennar has traditionally been the first to acknowledge and act on given circumstances. It’ll be interesting to see, in 2008, which other developers make the same acknowledgment. It’ll be even more interesting to see which major bank is the first to dispose of properties in a major headline sale.
Incredible Buy on a 1 Bedroom at The Grand – $299K
I just came across a one bedroom/one bath listing at The Grand that looks to be incredibly well priced. It has 1,180 square feet of interior space. It is listed for $299,000, or $253 per square foot. There are a few other one bedrooms in the building that are listed for slightly less but none of them come even close to having the level of quality that was put into this unit.
This is a perfect condo for somebody in search of a spacious one bedroom that is in impeccable condition for under $300K. You won’t find this type of space in a one bedroom in most of the new buildings.
Take a look at the MLS listing for more information and pictures. You can call me for additional details as well or if you’d like me to schedule you a showing.
