Fantastic Deal in Brickell Key at Brickell Key One
Yesterday I came across a fantastic condo deal in Brickell Key in the building known as Brickell Key One. At $318 per square foot it offers the best price per square foot of all currently listed condo units on the entire island of Brickell Key. The next best price per square foot in all of Brickell Key is listed at $355 per square foot. There are a total of four other units that have a list price that is under $400 per square foot in all of Brickell Key.
According to my June Miami Condo Index for Brickell Key it was shown that condo units on the island are listed at an average price per square foot of $519.97, or $513.19 when using a weighted-average. Condo units sold at an average price per square foot of $433.66, or $430.09 when weight-adjusted. Units listed at Brickell Key One were listed at an average price per square foot of $393.04 and sold at an average price per square foot of $372.15.
Built in 1982, Brickell Key One is the oldest building on Brickell Key and also offers the best price per square foot. At $318 per square foot one might expect this unit to be a total mess but it isn’t. It was recently completely remodeled. The kitchen has solid wood cabinets and top of the line stainless steel appliances. The living areas have marble floors while the bedrooms and hallways have bamboo floors. The unit has a total of 1,725 square feet of interior space and two balconies offering an additional 225 square feet of exterior space. It is a 2 bedroom/2 bathroom unit and is listed for $549,000. The two pictures below will show you what the kitchen looks like.
This is not a foreclosure or short sale, just a very motivated seller. The owner has found a new home and wants to sell this condo at Brickell Key One fast. Even at this great price, the owner will still walk away with a good chunk of profit. He paid $175,000 for the unit in January of 1998.
The maintenance fee for this unit is $725 per month, or 45 cents per square foot. That is really low for Brickell Key. Brickell Key One offers a lot of amenities such as tennis courts, racquetball courts, card room, billiards room, swimming pool, hot tub, fitness center, 24-hour security, barbecue area and free valet parking for guests.
Villa Magna Project Still a Possibility
Reports surfaced a few weeks ago that the Brickell luxury condominium project known as Villa Magna was canceled. Miami Today News reported earlier today that the project may move forward but with a significant change in the development plan. Villa Magna developer, Tibor Hollo, wants to replace 178,506 square feet of condominiums with hotel suites.
The 2.5 acre development site of the $200 million project known as Villa Magna is located at 1201 Brickell Bay Drive. It is the last bayfront parcel in Brickell. The previous plan called for 1,120 total condominium units.
The article mentions that local hospitality experts feel that competing with nearby luxury hotel brands such as the Mandarin Oriental and the Four Seasons Hotel would be a bad move by Mr. Hollo.
It will be interesting to see what becomes of this valuable parcel of land in the coming months. I will keep you posted as new information becomes available.
Miami Condo Index – Brickell – June 2007
Last week I mentioned that I was planning to create a Miami Condo Index to provide pricing insight to homebuyers in various neighborhoods in Miami and Miami Beach. This week I decided to kick things off with Brickell.
It was difficult to come up with a final list of buildings that should be included in the Brickell index. For example, is Neo Vertika in Brickell or should it be in a different category like West Brickell? Is One Miami part of downtown or should it be grouped with Brickell buildings? After much thought, I decided to include both. There simply aren’t enough buildings of interest in West Brickell or downtown to necessitate a separate neighborhood index for West Brickell and downtown. Eventually, One Miami will be grouped with downtown buildings as more developments are completed north of the Miami River. Another question remained as to whether buildings in Brickell Key should be grouped with buildings in Brickell to create a Brickell/Brickell Key index or should a separate index be created for each? I decided on the latter.
Earlier today, I finished crunching the numbers and evaluated my findings. Much of it was quite shocking. I took 18 prominent buildings in Brickell and created two separate spreadsheets. The first spreadsheet calculated the average price per square foot of units currently listed in the 18 buildings in Brickell. The second calculated the average price per square foot of units that have sold in those 18 buildings in the past six months. I also weighted each building according to how many units they had when compared to the sum of the units of all 18 buildings. This helped to arrive at a more accurate representation of the typicalBrickell condo.
First I’m going to show you the average price per square foot of the units currently listed on the market:
Some of those averages shocked the hell out of me. How can condo units at The Club at Brickell Bay have an average list price of over $650 per square foot? (I’ve heard reports of mortgage fraud in that building as well as at Jade and Vue at Brickell.) The average price per square foot for condos currently listed in Brickell using these 18 buildings came out to $536.28. The weight-adjusted average came out to $547.06. The Club at Brickell Bay, with 642 total units, skewed the weight-adjusted average higher than the regular average.
Next we’ll take a look at the average price per square foot in these buildings based on closed sales. Keep in mind that this is the average price per square foot. Condos that have a better view or are on a higher floor than the average condo in the building will obviously have a higher price per square foot. These figures were equally shocking.
Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $335.12
Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $411.79
Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $436.21
The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $634.15
The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickelly Bay Dr | 33131 | $506.81
The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $350.88
Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $556.59
Condo units at The Club at Brickell Bay had a higher average price per square foot than condos at Santa Maria when looking at closed sales. I had to double check my work once I saw that, but everything checked out.
I tried to eliminate any data that was irregular. For example, in the past six months Pharrell Williams purchased developer Ugo Colombo’s Penthouse unit at Bristol Tower for $13,950,000, or over $1,500 per square foot. I discarded it because it was deemed irregular.
The average price per square foot for these 18 buildings, based on closed sales, came out to $471.76. The weight-adjusted average came out to $495.13.
Using both data sets I also wanted to figure out how overpriced listings are in Brickell when compared to what they actually sell for, on average. I also was curious to find out which buildings were the most overpriced. Here is the data below:
Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 0.73%
Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | 12.01%
Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | 16.09%
The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 3.63%
The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickelly Bay Dr | 33131 | 2.78%
The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 9.99%
Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 29.67%
Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | -1.04%
On average, condo units at The Sail on Brickell have a list price that is 45.78% higher than the average sales price of units sold in the past six months. Either owners of units in that building have unrealistic expectations or agents conducting business there have not provided their clients with an accurate comparable market analysis.
On average, Brickell condo listings were priced 13.98% over the average sales price of units sold in the past six months in these 18 buildings. When using a weighted average, the typical Brickell condo is overpriced by 10.48%. The weighted average is lower because most of the large differences occur in smaller buildings such as The Sail on Brickell.
Keep in mind that statistical data is never perfect. It grows more accurate as additional data is incorporated. The same holds true for a major league baseball player. The first five at-bats in his major league career won’t dictate how the rest of his major league career will fair. The Miami Condo Index will shed more light as time goes on and patterns and trends begin to emerge in the data.
In the next two weeks I will reveal the findings for Brickell Key and South Beach. I will follow-up each neighborhood index report with a post highlighting any fantastic deals that I come across in the buildings covered.
Flashback to 1983
Yesterday I was given the link to an interesting news article that was published in The New York Times on March 21, 1983 entitled, “Auctioneer’s Gavel Finally Moves Luxury Condominiums in Miami”. You can find that story below or by clicking the link above:
Three hundred people spent a sunny afternoon today in the shade of a big white tent listening to the patter of an auctioneer hawking luxury condominiums, many of which were sold at discounts of 30 to 45 cents on the dollar.
As the market for luxury condominiums remains soft, more developers are taking this route to dispose of their inventory to cut their losses.
About 60 units were sold for $125,000 to $190,000 in the first day of a four-day auction at Biscayne Cove, a luxury high-rise complex overlooking blue waters, nestled among other luxury dwellings in North Miami Beach.
“We decided to auction off and give the people a bargain,” said Morton Littlemen, a representative of the developers. “We want to give the people a condominium they can afford to own.”
One two-bedroom penthouse that was originally offered for $248,000 was sold for a high bid of $150,000. Condominium prices in the two-building complex range from $100,000 to $334,000.
Biscayne Cove is the fifth such auction that Martin Higgenbotham, an auctioneer, has handled in the last year for the developers, subsidiaries of Cadillac Fairview Corporation and Southeast Florida Properties. It is, Mr. Higgenbotham said, the largest single condominium auction in Florida: 225 units on the block at a value of $46 million. It is more than the total of 152 units sold at the other four complexes in Miami Beach and Hallandale.
The condominium auction business has been “heavy,” Mr. Higgenbotham said. In the last 12 months his company has sold about 1,000 condominiums at auction. Previously it handled 250 units in an average year.
The decision to auction the properties was not taken lightly, according to Lewis Goodkin, a real estate consultant whose firm conducted a marketing study for Biscayne Cove and recommended the auction for fast results. “The purpose is, let’s get out of this stuff and let’s get out of it fast,” he said. Normal advertising and deep discounting is “like a prolonged agony.”
Mr. Goodkin’s study concluded that, even under good conditions, it would take three years for the market to absorb existing inventory and that it did not pay for developers to hold onto the property. “We have in Miami today the most overbuilt luxury condominium market in the country,” Mr. Goodkin said.
He foresaw more auctions of this magnitude. “When the last recession hit us, we had a lot more inventory, but the inventory was more affordable,” he said. “A tremendous number of the public could respond. It could be absorbed. Today, our big invetory is in the luxury ranges where the market is not deep and you don’t have the response from the South American markets because their economy is weak or low.”
While the glut is most severe in Miami, it is not exclusive to this area, Mr. Goodkin said.
Is this the fate of the luxury condo units that will come to market in the next 12-24 months in Miami? 20,000! That is the number that has been thrown around for the number of new condo units that will close in 2007 and 2008. It is difficult to imagine that a supply of that magnitude can be absorbed in such a short period of time. It will be interesting to see what percentage of people walk away from deposits rather than close. If a significant portion walk then developers will likely be forced to take immediate action which could recall memories of 1983.
An Analytical Analysis of Analyzing Condominiums
People often ask me why I chose to focus on condominiums rather than single family homes when I began my career in real estate. I guess the answer is mainly attributable to my formal education and the work experience I gained after graduating college.
As mentioned in the About Me section of this site, I graduated from the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Finance with a specialization in Investments. After graduation, I worked as an equity options trader on the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange for four years.
It became second nature for me to begin to analogize most aspects of my life in investment terms. Condominiums to me had similar homogeneous characteristics as that of a financial security than single family homes.
In my opinion, it is much easier to analyze the true market value of a condominium than it is for a single family home. A price per square foot analysis of condo units in a building, and even a neighborhood, reveals more truth than the price per square foot analysis of single family homes on a particular street or in a particular neighborhood.
A 2 bedroom condo in a particular building, in many instances, will have the same characteristics of another 2 bedroom condo in that same building, such as shared common areas, amenities, year built, square footage, appliances, floor plan, maintenance fees, view, parking spaces and so on. Any differentiations in the aforementioned qualities can be easily adjusted in the value of the subject property versus comparable properties.
It is much more difficult to assess the value of a single family home. It is common to see a small, outdated home situated right down the street from a large, recently built home. Of course there are ways to appraise the values of each by making adjustments for any differentiations in each home but it just isn’t the same, in my mind. A home buyer may fall in love with one home while he or she finds the home right down the street an eyesore.
It becomes much more expensive to turn a home down the street into your dream home than it is to turn a condo down the hallway into your ideal abode. The expense of replacing or changing the floors, paint job, window treatments, light fixtures and other elements of a condo can more easily be ascertained.
These thoughts guided me into the decision of choosing to specialize in condominiums over single family homes when I began my career in real estate. As the housing bubble talk began to escalate a few years ago, I began to think of how nice it would be conceive a way to hedge real estate investments for the average home purchaser or investor in case of a bubble-popping scenario.
I guess fellow Chicagoans at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange had similar thoughts. They created a tradable home market index based upon the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which measures home prices based on recorded changes in home values and a repeat sales methodology.
The futures and options instruments that were enacted by the CME began trading in May of 2006. The purpose was to offer jittery homeowners a way to hedge the investment in their homes against future price declines. The CME also saw a large interest from investors to directly participate in the much-talked-about housing market.
While being a giant leap in the right direction, the CME’s housing index is far from perfect. They introduced tradable securities based upon large metropolitan areas which include the following: Miami, Chicago, Boston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Washington, as well as a weighted composite index.
However, it is difficult to adequately hedge the value of a condo in a building such as The Setai in South Beach from a condo in a boutique building in Hialeah using their index.
I have decided to create my own, localized, index. This index will be based upon market data derived from major condo buildings in Miami. I will create a graphical representation of a six-month price per square foot moving average using data of closed sales and a month-to-month price per square foot analysis of units currently on the market. I may include other relevant statistics in the future to provide more in-depth information relevant to the Miami condo market. I hope you guys trading the Miami housing index at the CME appreciate the information. I’d love to hear from you.
I plan to release an index update each week. At the outset, I will rotate Miami neighborhoods for a total of four neighborhoods (South Beach, Brickell, Arts & Design District and Miami Beach minus South Beach). In the future I plan to add Downtown Miami and Park West as its own index once the nearly constructed buildings in those areas are fully built.
I’ve decided to name my index the “Miami Condo Index”, or MCI for short. Obviously my index won’t be tradable as is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s housing index, but I hope that it will provide more insight to localized housing markets throughout Miami’s major neighborhoods.
The Miami Condo Index will launch next week with an in-depth look at Brickell.
I urge other Realtors throughout the country to create their own localized housing indices to fully encompass their own markets and provide market transparency to home buyers like no other.
Foreclosure Listings at Vue at Brickell Doubles in Three Weeks
On May 24, 2007 I posted an entry entitled, “Vue at Brickell – Overpriced or Insanely Overpriced?“, in which I questioned the average price per square foot of the condo units at a building called Vue at Brickell. I surmised that mortgage fraud may have been partly at fault for prices at Vue at Brickell reaching such irrational levels.
At that time there were three listed foreclosure units in the building. Now, there are a total of six. In three weeks the number of the listed units that are currently in the foreclosure process have doubled. Those are just the ones that are listed. I’m sure there are others. Below you will see those six listings, as well as relevant property information.
(FL#=floor number, #BEDS=number of bedrooms, #FB=number of full baths, #HB=number of half baths, LA=living area square footage, LP$=list price, LP$/SqFt=average price per square foot, #GAR=number of parking spaces, WTRFR=waterfront?)
I find it humorous that two of the listings categorize Vue at Brickell as being a waterfront building. It is far from being a waterfront building.
As you can see, the average price per square foot of the listed foreclosure units at Vue at Brickell is currently $475.81. The non-foreclosure units in the building have a much higher price per square foot. Only one of the six listings penetrated the $400 per square foot mark on the downside. Mark my words, within 18 months the majority of condo listings in Vue at Brickell, both foreclosure and non-foreclosure, will be under $400 per square foot. The availability of such a large number of newly constructed condo units within the next 18 months, in much higher-end buildings, will be the driving force. These buildings already offer price points below $400 per square foot and the growing supply will push those prices even lower.
It now more important than ever that you research various buildings in the neighborhood and receive a comparative market analysis when making a home purchase to ensure that you are making a wise investment. You know what they say…”Buying a home is the most important investment that you’ll make in your life”.
Cynergi Buyer Wants Out
A guy named Evan left a comment on this blog and dropped me an email over the weekend. He bought a 1 bedroom/1 bath (D floor plan) with 962 square feet of interior space and a 204 square foot balcony on the eighth floor at Cynergi. He went into contract on his unit in June of 2005 and is looking to find a buyer to take over his contract. The price that he locked into was $380,000 but he is willing to accept $360,000 to get out. His unit comes with a $10,000 upgrade package, a full granite backsplash, washer/dryer and one parking space. The following are the prices that the sales agent working for the Cynergi developer quoted him in March 2007 for other D units in the building:
2nd floor – $425,000
3rd floor – $430,000
6th floor – $450,000
7th floor – $460,000
8th floor – $470,000
My reaction was holy crap! Those are unrealistic prices! I dug through some of the old price lists that I still have for Cynergi to see what those units were listed for a year or two ago. I used to get regular pricing updates emailed to me by a few of the sales agents who worked for Cynergi. I found a price list dated February 6, 2006. It has D units priced from $395,000 (2nd floor) to $425,000 (8th floor). Looks like Evan did get in pretty early. I still think that the prices are high even at $360,000 but I figured that I would post his situation on here in case someone knows somebody out there who is looking to buy a unit at Cynergi. Maybe they can help each other out.
Also, I’ve heard rumors that the developer of Cynergi is thinking about downgrading the kitchens and bathrooms on the remaining unsold units to cut back on costs. Does anybody out there know if there is any truth to this? It makes sense to me since it will be nearly impossible for them to sell those one bedroom units priced in the $400K’s.
The picture slideshow below will show you the floor plan for a D unit. It will also show you the kitchen and bathroom as they should be delivered to contract holders. I took these pictures a while ago when the model showroom still existed.
If anyone else out there is looking to get out of their contract to purchase a Miami preconstruction condo before they close, feel free to send me an email or drop a comment describing your scenario. Later this week I’ll discuss 10 condo units that are up for grabs at Midtown 4 They were purchased by an investment group when sales first launched. The group is looking to sell the condos for exactly what they paid. I will post that story once I get all the details from a member of the investment group that I met this past weekend.
Update: Evan has reduced the price of his one bedroom unit at Cynergi to $345,000. He will consider all offers.
Ten Museum Park – More Opportunities as Closing Dates Approach
I met with a sales rep today who works for Ten Museum Park to go over pricing and availability for a few out-of-state clients who are interested in buying a condo unit there. I took in a lot of good information during my 30 minute meeting and want to share it with everyone. Ten Museum Park has received its TCO (temporary certificate of occupancy) and closings for units on the first 35 floors will begin shortly. I learned that the developer will grant one extension to people scheduled to close. Then, a letter will be sent out notifying the contract holder of a firm closing date. They will be charged for each day that they are unable to close at an 18 percent APR.
There are a lot of great deals currently available at Ten Museum Park. People holding contracts for condo units in the building were required to put down a total of 20% in deposit money. The first 10% was payable in January 2004. The second 10% was due in December 2004 when the building broke ground. Many of those people are currently looking for a purchaser to step in and close for them. In many cases they are willing to sell their unit at a price point that would allow them to break even or accept a small loss. This is an opportunity to get in at January 2004 pricing. The developer charges the contract holder a transfer fee of 3.75 percent and a co-broker fee of 3 percent. Most contract holders have factored in this cost to compute their break-even point. The worksheet below will show some of the deals that are available. The majority of these deals do not appear in the MLS. The data used to create this spreadsheet was provided by a sales agent working for Ten Museum Park.
The best deal in the building right now is unit 1607. As the worksheet reveals, it has a price per square foot of $363. That is remarkable for a building of this caliber!
Ten Museum Park is located in a Downtown Miami neighborhood now known as Park West. Besides Ten Museum Park, Park West will have three additions to the neighborhood in the next 12 months. These include the following:
There are a few things that I love about Ten Museum Park. One, is that it only has 200 units. I definitely wouldn’t call it a boutique building but it isn’t a monster development either. Two, the price per square foot is much lower than in these other buildings. The building was able to launch sales and begin construction in 2004, prior to when construction costs began to escalate. These other developments weren’t as fortunate and had to price their units in accordance with the higher construction costs that needed to be taken into consideration. I also love the open floor plans at Ten Museum Park. If you’re a fan of lofts then you’ll appreciate the layouts of the units at Ten Museum Park.
I learned today that when the real estate market was red hot, a few of the “04” units sold as high as $1.3M during resales. Those people are pretty screwed. Fortunately, the lender, Mellon Financial Corporation, only allowed the unit to be resold a maximum of one time. It may seem logical for some of these buyers to walk away from their deposits seeing that comparable units are now on the market at a 38% discount to what they paid. If one of the resale buyers walks away from their deposit then the initial buyer is on the hook to close. I learned, however, that if this scenario were to occur, the 20% deposit forfeited by the second buyer would be applied to the initial purchase price of the first buyer. That is a pretty sweet deal! An instant 20 percent in equity just like that.
I’ve scheduled to have a tour of Ten Museum Park late next week. I’ll be sure to take lots of pictures and shoot as much video as I can. I’m looking forward to seeing the penthouse unit with the 1,298 square foot rooftop terrace and vitality pool.
Icon Brickell – 2 Bedroom+Den/2 Bath Becomes Available
Word came to me today that an early contract holder at Icon Brickell has passed away and his contract is up for grabs. The contract has passed from his estate to the developer and The Related Group has it back on the market at the initial price offered when it was purchased in mid-2005. Icon Brickell sold out relatively fast in 2005 and availability is now limited to the condo-hotel units in the Viceroy tower. The Related Group is the most successful developer in Florida and has the reputation of selling out their buildings within the first week. They are known to price their units very well and to leave profit on the table for purchasers rather than squeeze every last penny out of a project. They price their units slightly below market, sell out and then move onto the next project. Great business plan, and it has worked quite well for them.
The condo unit that just came back on the market is unit 2703, located in tower one of the Icon Brickell development. It is floor plan B, which has a southeast view. The picture below will give you an idea of the view that you would have.
It is a 2 bedroom plus den/2 bath with 1,503 square feet of living space and has a 219 square foot balcony. It is priced at $916,000, or $607 per square foot.
Icon Brickell is the second development with the Icon name attached. Icon South Beach was the first and is one of the most well known buildings in South Beach. Icon Brickell is sure to be as spectacular as its South Beach counterpart. The picture slideshow below will show you some renderings of the building and amenities.
