Earlier this week, I received an email from someone stating that they had heard rumors that the North Tower of Flamingo South Beach had been canceled. I asked around and it seems that, while nothing has officially been announced, there are plans to give deposit money back to contract holders of units in the North Tower of Flamingo South Beach and to maintain it as a rental building. I’m assuming that the option to convert the Center Tower will not be exercised by MCZ/Centrum and that it too will remain as a rental building.
This is actually great news for owners of condos in the South Tower at Flamingo South Beach, as well as for owners of condos located in the surrounding neighborhood. There will now be much less condo inventory hitting the market. The three towers comprising Flamingo South Beach have a total of 1,688 units. I’m not sure how many of these are situated in the North and Center Towers, but my guess would be that it is something close to 1,100 units. That’s 1,100 less condos that would have otherwise become available on the market (if my estimate is accurate).
I’m just wondering if this will mean that the plans for the courtyard will now be scrapped. The renderings for the courtyard looked fantastic! I’m sure this additional element calculated into the decision-making process of someone who purchased a condo in the South Tower of Flamingo South Beach.
Apogee South Beach – Now That’s a Master Bathroom!!!
Yesterday morning, I had the opportunity to visit a few condo units at Apogee South Beach located at 800 South Pointe Drive in South Beach. The word “sensational” doesn’t even come close to fully encompassing the quality that has gone into this condo development. Apogee South Beach is in a league of its own, with quality that is unmatched by any condo development in South Florida.
The following are a few shots of the master bathroom that I took yesterday inside one of the two condos at Apogee South Beach. Trust me, the kitchens are equally as impressive, if not more so. I’ll likely share the photos of the kitchen at Apogee with everyone in a future post.
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – January 2008
In the last update of the Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends in November 2007, I promised that the Miami and Miami Beach Condo Trends would be a monthly update. I hate breaking promises but December turned out to be much busier for me than I had expected. With the holidays on top of everything, it was a promise that I had to break.
I also mentioned the inclusion of a condo rental index. I still plan to include these stats within the next couple of months.
Below, you will find the January figures. The first box to the left shows the total number of condos that are currently available for sale on the MLS in Miami-Dade County. These include condos located in Miami, Miami Beach, Aventura, Homestead, Kendall, Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, etc. Keep in mind that these numbers do not include single family homes, just condos, townhomes and lofts. What surprised me is that the total number of listed condos has gone down since the November report. It dropped about 2 percent. However, the number of closed sales in the previous month fell sharply, down about 22 percent. The current condo inventory now represents 5.72 years of supply. That is roughly a 20 percent increase over the November figure. Thousands of new condos are ready to be delivered within the coming months, so we should see subsequent increases in upcoming months. Most of this increase will be throughout Miami, as opposed to Miami Beach or other areas of Miami-Dade County. You’ll notice that the figures are also broken down by price range to give you a better idea of which part of the condo market has been affected the most.
Below you’ll find the same statistics but these only encompass condos located in Miami. In November, the existing condo inventory represented 4.04 years of supply. Now, just two months later, we’re sitting on 6.01 years of condo supply. This represents approximately a whopping 49 percent increase! This is mainly attributed to a large drop-off in closed sales in the previous month.
The following statistics encompass condos located throughout Miami Beach. The increase of inventory in Miami Beach isn’t so startling. Miami Beach now has 6.15 years of condo supply compared to the 5.89 years of condo supply that we saw in November. This represents an increase of about 4.5 percent. There were only 3 fewer sales in December compared with the number of closed condos in October.
The inventory levels, as of right now, for condos located in Miami and Miami Beach are relatively close. I think by next month you’ll see Miami pulling ahead. What’s your prediction for the inventory levels that we’ll see for Miami condos in July 2008?
How to Sell Your Condo or House in the Current Real Estate Market
The following video provides great insight as to how sellers in the current real estate market should be realistic in pricing their home or condo if they are truly motivated to sell.
Oh yeah, and in case you missed it….DON’T OVERPRICE YOUR HOME! If you interview three agents and you decide to go with the agent that is willing to list your home at the highest price, then good luck!
New Construction Condo Deals in the Arts District, Brickell, Downtown Miami, and South Beach
As closing dates for some of South Florida’s newest condo developments quickly approaches, the motivation from contract holders to sell is becoming increasingly apparent. I’ve been receiving a lot of phone calls and emails from contract holders, within the past couple of weeks, who are looking for me to help them find a replacement buyer.
In some cases the contract holders are willing to accept a loss on their contract price in order to retain a portion of the deposit that was made 3-4 years ago. Below you will find some of the better deals that I’ve come across:
Unit ??? – 2 bedroom/2.5 bath NW corner unit – 1,491 SF – $1.86M
Unit ??? – 2 bedroom/2.5 bath NW corner unit – 1,922SF – $3.35M
Unit ??? – 3 bedroom/3.5 bath NE corner – 3,497 SF (4 balconies) – $4.2M
If you’re a contract holder and you’re motivated to sell then feel free to email me details of your condo and the price that you are willing to accept. Most developer contracts do not allow you to market your unit outside the sales center, so I will post general information here on the blog to see if a buyer emerges.
I’ll match buyers and sellers together. The sales centers are in some cases charging higher than normal sales commissions and transfer fees which make it virtually impossible for contract holders to get their units into the hands of end-users. I’m hoping that this blog will help contract holders to get some of their money back, end-users to find a great deal and developers to have less defaulted units. The way I see it is a win-win-win situation for everyone involved.
By the way, I’ve added a link to this post on my “Deals” page and will be adding to the list above intermittently.
Bentley Bay – 1 Bedroom Bank-Owned Foreclosure – $449,900
A 1 bedroom/1 bath bank-owned foreclosure with 777 square feet of interior space at Bentley Bay recently had a $100K price drop. At this point, it fell onto my radar as being a good deal. It is currently being offered at $449,900. The condo is located on the 12th floor.
The unit faces west which, in my opinion, offers a better view than those facing east. The units facing west have a view of Biscayne Bay, Star Island and the Miami skyline. I haven’t viewed this unit in person but from the MLS pictures it appears that the appliances are still in place. I’ve noticed in a lot of other foreclosures that the appliances are oftentimes removed from the unit.
A unit in the same line sold for $550,000 in June 2007. That unit was sold furnished, however. There’s usually a price difference of $3,000 per floor in Miami and Miami Beach. If the foreclosed condo is in good shape then I think acquiring it in the low $400K’s would make for a great deal.
The following units in the same line at Bentley Bay North are currently listed at the prices below in the MLS:
Unit 1013 – $526,500
Unit 713 – $529,999
Unit 1613 – $599,000
Unit 1713 – $599,000
Unit 1213 – $650,000
Unit 2313 – $679,500
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – November 2007
I’m going to start including a monthly condo trends report. My hope is that it will help to shed more light on the current state of the market. It is likely to be my most followed monthly piece. After the new year it, along with some other newly added statistics such as a rental market index, will become “premium” content. Just wanted to give you all the heads up. I just finished compiling the numbers and I was pretty shocked.
I basically wanted to find out how many months of inventory we have in Miami and Miami Beach. I created a report for Miami-Dade County, one for Miami and one for Miami Beach. I broke each report down to various price ranges to figure out which category has been affected the most. I took closed sales for the month of October and compared it to the inventory that is now available. Below you will find the numbers for Miami-Dade County:
As you can see Miami-Dade County has about 55 months, or 4.58 years, worth of inventory. I wanted to see how much of this supply resides in Miami compared to Miami Beach. Below you will find the numbers for Miami:
Miami currently has a 48 1/2 month, or approximately a 4 year, supply of condos. That’s actually much lower than I expected. However, keep in mind that there are thousands of condos that will come onto the market within the next 24 months. In fact, in July, I calculated that a little over 16,000 condos would hit the market within the next 19 months in the neighborhoods of Brickell Key, Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. Probably about 1,500 or so units have hit the market since I wrote that post. If you add 14,500 units to the Miami figures above then we’re looking at close to a 10 year supply. Now that’s quite shocking!!!
Let’s take a look at the Miami Beach figures:
I was surprised to learn that the supply of Miami Beach condos is higher than that of Miami’s. The number of new condos coming onto the market, however, in Miami Beach pales in comparison to the new condos scheduled to hit the market within the next two years. My guess is that about 1,500 units will hit the Miami Beach market in that time which would put it at around an 8 year supply. Still pretty shocking given that it’s Miami Beach! I was equally shocked by the low number of closings in the $500,000-$999,999 price range. That appears to be a problematic price range if you’re a condo owner looking to sell somewhere in that range.
Despite a number of news stories that have hit the press lately, it looks like the ultra-luxury ($2.5M+) market isn’t moving. It has very few available listings compared to the other categories but it had basically no closed sales in October. There were a total of two in all of Dade-County. Both were located in Bal Harbour.
I receive a lot of monthly phone calls from investors who are waiting for the market to bottom-out. They all want to know when is the “right” time to buy into the South Florida condo market. I’m hoping that a report like the one above can help me pinpoint when that time might be.
A recent Fortune magazine article entitled, “Real Estate: Buy, Sell, or Hold?”, said the following:
The combination of steep discounts to move inventory and a stream of new communities built at a lower cost will keep prices far below their peak levels in the boom towns. And they’ll keep falling until builders work off the massive inventories. The tumbling prices of new homes, in turn, will put enormous pressure on the far bigger existing-home market, already under stress from two desperate groups of sellers, investors and banks. Hence, the adjustment needed to bring the ratio of prices to rents into alignment will happen far faster than in most housing downturns. “In the most vulnerable places in California and Florida, it’s highly possible that most of the correction will happen by the end of 2008,” says (Mark) Zandi, (chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com).
The article was mainly discussing single-family homes but I think the same holds true for the condo market. The Miami condo market is likely to drop lower, on a percentage basis, than other major U.S. cities but I agree with Mark Zandi that the market here will be quicker to correct itself because of the high number of foreclosures and defaults that we are likely to see. 2008 will be a time of readjustment. I’m looking quite forward to it.
South Beach Condo Index – November 2007
The following data was collected on Sunday, November 11, 2007. The average price per square foot of condos currently listed in the following 19 developments in South Beach dropped from last month’s average. In fact, it even dipped below September’s average. It went from $889.83 per square foot, in October, to $886.71, for this month. The September average price per square foot was $887.60. The weight-adjusted average also slid slightly to $773.67 from last month’s weighted average of $773.73. Below, you will find the average price per square foot of condos listed in the following 19 condo developments in South Beach:
The average price per square foot of condos sold over the previous six months has gone down from $787.01 per square foot to $775.74. Once again, Meridian Lofts didn’t have any closed sales within the last six months which is why you will find the “N/A” below. If Meridian Lofts were included in the average this month, at its previous average price per square foot of $434.78 in September, then the average price of condos sold in this index would have dropped from $768.47, last month, to $757.80, this month. Below, you will find the average price per square foot of condos that have sold within the last six months in the following 19 developments in South Beach:
Murano at Portofino – 1000 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | $1,040.34
Murano Grande – 400 Alton Rd | 33139 | $721.85
Portofino Tower – 300 S Pointe Dr | 33139 | $1,014.26
Setai South Beach – 101 20 St | 33139 | $1,494.92
Waverly at South Beach – 1330 West Ave | 33139 | $475.99
Yacht Club at Portofino – 90 Alton Rd | 33139 | $611.65
As with the Brickell and Brickell Key condo indices, I have provided the graph below to make it easier for everyone to make sense of the statistics above. If you can’t read the numbers below then you need to upgrade your glasses to a set of binoculars. Otherwise, right-click and save the graph below and blow it up to as big as you’d like.
The first column, to the right of each condo development’s name, is the difference in the average sales and list prices for the statistics at the top, expressed as a percentage. With the exception of Portofino Tower and The Floridian, the average sales prices are well below the average list prices in these 19 developments. Portofino Tower had a condo sell for $1,505 per square foot on June 29, 2007. Once that transaction falls off the average in January, we shall see Portofino Tower begin to show its true colors. Average list and sales prices at The Floridian are merging together because the high number of short-sales that are available at The Floridian. Once a few of these actually close, the average sales price will fall well below the average list price.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. I find this to be a very healthy number. 1500 Ocean Drive, Courts at South Beach, The Decoplage, Grand Venetian, Il Villaggio and Murano at Portofino fall into this territory.
The 10-15 percent range is considered average while the 15-20 percent range is beginning to approach dangerous levels. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. This indicates that the danger zone has been breached and caution should be heeded. Of the 19 condo developments in the South Beach Condo Index, Bentley Bay, Murano Grande and Setai South Beach fall into this red zone area.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales since October’s South Beach Condo Index. As you can see, there are 31 pending sales in South Beach. There’s been a total of 13 closed sales within the last month, which matches last month’s figure. Icon South Beach, with 3 closed sales, is beginning to show some spirit. There was a recent article in the papers that stated that former NFL quarterback Michael Vick, recently acquired a pricey condo at Icon South Beach. I’m pretty sure that the neighbors won’t be pleased by all of the dog barking until he begins to serve his time. Woof, woof!!!
The sixth column shows you the difference in the average list prices from this and last month’s, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo buildings which had a drop in their average list price, those highlighted in green show those that had an increase while those highlighted in yellow reveal a stalemate from last month’s figures. As you can see, Meridian Lofts had an 11.44 percent drop. That’s probably because it hasn’t had any closed sales within the last six months. Time to drop prices!
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this and last month’s, expressed as a percentage. The color scheme remains the same. Sales prices at Bentley Bay spiked up 7.33 percent because a transaction that took place on May 8, 2007 at $476 per square foot fell off the average. The Setai South Beach took a beating this month, with a 9.71 percent drop from last month’s average. This is mainly attributed to a Penthouse unit that sold for $1,851 per square foot falling off the average this past month.
Pending sales have increased to 31 from last month’s figure of 25. It looks like the off-peak months have begun to knock boots with the on-peak months. Just wait until January. I promise that you’ll begin to see more pending and closed sales during those months.
Flamingo South Beach: Then & Now
Correction: I’ve been told that the picture above is from the 1920s and is of the old Flamingo Hotel.
I viewed the above picture a few days ago. I found it simply amazing to see what Miami Beach and Flamingo South Beach looked like in the 1960s. There were so many parcels of land still untouched back then. What a world of change 40+ years can bring to a city.
Flamingo South Beach became the largest condo-conversion in the state of Florida in early 2006. It is composed of three towers with 1,688 total units and is in the process of undergoing a multi-million dollar restoration. Currently, the south tower has been fully sold and Chicago-based MCZ Development is now working to sell out the north tower. The center tower, which rises above the two others and has more modern finishes and better views, will likely be available for sale in late 2008 if MCZ Development exercises their rights to it.
What is interesting to note about the picture above is that a swimming pool didn’t exist back then at Flamingo South Beach. Nowadays, the swimming pool area is where the party is each sunny weekend afternoon.
Of course, the picture directly above wasn’t taken on a weekend afternoon. In fact, I took it in August of 2006 on a Tuesday afternoon. The topless and G-string clad beauties at Flamingo South Beach usually bask under the South Florida sun on the weekends.
Flamingo South Beach is well known for its great amenities. It is the closest that you’ll come to resort-style living in South Beach. Investors love Flamingo South Beach because rental rates are high and the development allows short-term rentals. A gorgeous place to stay while on vacation in South Beach.
Truth be known, prices likely won’t appreciate at Flamingo South Beach for 2-3 years sheerly based on the high number of units that have been and will eventually be fully converted. The long-term outlook, however, for Flamingo South Beach is great. It’s a little piece of paradise within a paradise city.
Avanti at The Villages of Normandy Isle – Another Developer Closeout Auction
Avanti at The Villages of Normandy Isle is a multi-story townhouse community located at 155-193 North Shore Drive in the neighborhood of Normandy Isle in Miami Beach. I’ve visited several condos at Avanti in the past and was very impressed. The layouts were great and most had a large rooftop terrace that would be an ideal place for a Jacuzzi hot tub.
Apparently, the developer still has six unsold units and has decided to auction them. Two of them will be sold “absolute” to the highest bidder. Five of the six units are 3 bedroom/3.5 bath units with 3,108-3,440 square feet. The sixth unit is a 2 bedroom/2.5 with 2,790 square feet. Avanti was completed at the end of 2005. Has the developer been holding onto these this whole time?
At present time, there are ten 3 bedroom/3.5 bath units that are listed in the MLS. They range in price from $700,000 to $1,155,000.
A cashier’s check in the amount of $10,000 is required to bid on the day of the auction. Any winning bids will be required to provide the balance of 10 percent of the total contract price in the form of a personal check. There will be a 10 percent buyer’s premium for units sold at this auction. Closings shall occur on or before 45 days following the auction. All units are sold “as-is” and without any contingencies.
The auction will be held Saturday, November 3, 2007 at 12pm at Avanti. Contact me if you have an interest in bidding at this auction and would like to view the units.
