Reports surfaced a few weeks ago that the Brickell luxury condominium project known as Villa Magna was canceled. Miami Today News reported earlier today that the project may move forward but with a significant change in the development plan. Villa Magna developer, Tibor Hollo, wants to replace 178,506 square feet of condominiums with hotel suites.
The 2.5 acre development site of the $200 million project known as Villa Magna is located at 1201 Brickell Bay Drive. It is the last bayfront parcel in Brickell. The previous plan called for 1,120 total condominium units.
The article mentions that local hospitality experts feel that competing with nearby luxury hotel brands such as the Mandarin Oriental and the Four Seasons Hotel would be a bad move by Mr. Hollo.
It will be interesting to see what becomes of this valuable parcel of land in the coming months. I will keep you posted as new information becomes available.
Flashback to 1983
Yesterday I was given the link to an interesting news article that was published in The New York Times on March 21, 1983 entitled, “Auctioneer’s Gavel Finally Moves Luxury Condominiums in Miami”. You can find that story below or by clicking the link above:
Three hundred people spent a sunny afternoon today in the shade of a big white tent listening to the patter of an auctioneer hawking luxury condominiums, many of which were sold at discounts of 30 to 45 cents on the dollar.
As the market for luxury condominiums remains soft, more developers are taking this route to dispose of their inventory to cut their losses.
About 60 units were sold for $125,000 to $190,000 in the first day of a four-day auction at Biscayne Cove, a luxury high-rise complex overlooking blue waters, nestled among other luxury dwellings in North Miami Beach.
“We decided to auction off and give the people a bargain,” said Morton Littlemen, a representative of the developers. “We want to give the people a condominium they can afford to own.”
One two-bedroom penthouse that was originally offered for $248,000 was sold for a high bid of $150,000. Condominium prices in the two-building complex range from $100,000 to $334,000.
Biscayne Cove is the fifth such auction that Martin Higgenbotham, an auctioneer, has handled in the last year for the developers, subsidiaries of Cadillac Fairview Corporation and Southeast Florida Properties. It is, Mr. Higgenbotham said, the largest single condominium auction in Florida: 225 units on the block at a value of $46 million. It is more than the total of 152 units sold at the other four complexes in Miami Beach and Hallandale.
The condominium auction business has been “heavy,” Mr. Higgenbotham said. In the last 12 months his company has sold about 1,000 condominiums at auction. Previously it handled 250 units in an average year.
The decision to auction the properties was not taken lightly, according to Lewis Goodkin, a real estate consultant whose firm conducted a marketing study for Biscayne Cove and recommended the auction for fast results. “The purpose is, let’s get out of this stuff and let’s get out of it fast,” he said. Normal advertising and deep discounting is “like a prolonged agony.”
Mr. Goodkin’s study concluded that, even under good conditions, it would take three years for the market to absorb existing inventory and that it did not pay for developers to hold onto the property. “We have in Miami today the most overbuilt luxury condominium market in the country,” Mr. Goodkin said.
He foresaw more auctions of this magnitude. “When the last recession hit us, we had a lot more inventory, but the inventory was more affordable,” he said. “A tremendous number of the public could respond. It could be absorbed. Today, our big invetory is in the luxury ranges where the market is not deep and you don’t have the response from the South American markets because their economy is weak or low.”
While the glut is most severe in Miami, it is not exclusive to this area, Mr. Goodkin said.
Is this the fate of the luxury condo units that will come to market in the next 12-24 months in Miami? 20,000! That is the number that has been thrown around for the number of new condo units that will close in 2007 and 2008. It is difficult to imagine that a supply of that magnitude can be absorbed in such a short period of time. It will be interesting to see what percentage of people walk away from deposits rather than close. If a significant portion walk then developers will likely be forced to take immediate action which could recall memories of 1983.
An Analytical Analysis of Analyzing Condominiums
People often ask me why I chose to focus on condominiums rather than single family homes when I began my career in real estate. I guess the answer is mainly attributable to my formal education and the work experience I gained after graduating college.
As mentioned in the About Me section of this site, I graduated from the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Finance with a specialization in Investments. After graduation, I worked as an equity options trader on the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange for four years.
It became second nature for me to begin to analogize most aspects of my life in investment terms. Condominiums to me had similar homogeneous characteristics as that of a financial security than single family homes.
In my opinion, it is much easier to analyze the true market value of a condominium than it is for a single family home. A price per square foot analysis of condo units in a building, and even a neighborhood, reveals more truth than the price per square foot analysis of single family homes on a particular street or in a particular neighborhood.
A 2 bedroom condo in a particular building, in many instances, will have the same characteristics of another 2 bedroom condo in that same building, such as shared common areas, amenities, year built, square footage, appliances, floor plan, maintenance fees, view, parking spaces and so on. Any differentiations in the aforementioned qualities can be easily adjusted in the value of the subject property versus comparable properties.
It is much more difficult to assess the value of a single family home. It is common to see a small, outdated home situated right down the street from a large, recently built home. Of course there are ways to appraise the values of each by making adjustments for any differentiations in each home but it just isn’t the same, in my mind. A home buyer may fall in love with one home while he or she finds the home right down the street an eyesore.
It becomes much more expensive to turn a home down the street into your dream home than it is to turn a condo down the hallway into your ideal abode. The expense of replacing or changing the floors, paint job, window treatments, light fixtures and other elements of a condo can more easily be ascertained.
These thoughts guided me into the decision of choosing to specialize in condominiums over single family homes when I began my career in real estate. As the housing bubble talk began to escalate a few years ago, I began to think of how nice it would be conceive a way to hedge real estate investments for the average home purchaser or investor in case of a bubble-popping scenario.
I guess fellow Chicagoans at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange had similar thoughts. They created a tradable home market index based upon the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which measures home prices based on recorded changes in home values and a repeat sales methodology.
The futures and options instruments that were enacted by the CME began trading in May of 2006. The purpose was to offer jittery homeowners a way to hedge the investment in their homes against future price declines. The CME also saw a large interest from investors to directly participate in the much-talked-about housing market.
While being a giant leap in the right direction, the CME’s housing index is far from perfect. They introduced tradable securities based upon large metropolitan areas which include the following: Miami, Chicago, Boston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Washington, as well as a weighted composite index.
However, it is difficult to adequately hedge the value of a condo in a building such as The Setai in South Beach from a condo in a boutique building in Hialeah using their index.
I have decided to create my own, localized, index. This index will be based upon market data derived from major condo buildings in Miami. I will create a graphical representation of a six-month price per square foot moving average using data of closed sales and a month-to-month price per square foot analysis of units currently on the market. I may include other relevant statistics in the future to provide more in-depth information relevant to the Miami condo market. I hope you guys trading the Miami housing index at the CME appreciate the information. I’d love to hear from you.
I plan to release an index update each week. At the outset, I will rotate Miami neighborhoods for a total of four neighborhoods (South Beach, Brickell, Arts & Design District and Miami Beach minus South Beach). In the future I plan to add Downtown Miami and Park West as its own index once the nearly constructed buildings in those areas are fully built.
I’ve decided to name my index the “Miami Condo Index”, or MCI for short. Obviously my index won’t be tradable as is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s housing index, but I hope that it will provide more insight to localized housing markets throughout Miami’s major neighborhoods.
The Miami Condo Index will launch next week with an in-depth look at Brickell.
I urge other Realtors throughout the country to create their own localized housing indices to fully encompass their own markets and provide market transparency to home buyers like no other.
Ten Museum Park – More Opportunities as Closing Dates Approach
I met with a sales rep today who works for Ten Museum Park to go over pricing and availability for a few out-of-state clients who are interested in buying a condo unit there. I took in a lot of good information during my 30 minute meeting and want to share it with everyone. Ten Museum Park has received its TCO (temporary certificate of occupancy) and closings for units on the first 35 floors will begin shortly. I learned that the developer will grant one extension to people scheduled to close. Then, a letter will be sent out notifying the contract holder of a firm closing date. They will be charged for each day that they are unable to close at an 18 percent APR.
There are a lot of great deals currently available at Ten Museum Park. People holding contracts for condo units in the building were required to put down a total of 20% in deposit money. The first 10% was payable in January 2004. The second 10% was due in December 2004 when the building broke ground. Many of those people are currently looking for a purchaser to step in and close for them. In many cases they are willing to sell their unit at a price point that would allow them to break even or accept a small loss. This is an opportunity to get in at January 2004 pricing. The developer charges the contract holder a transfer fee of 3.75 percent and a co-broker fee of 3 percent. Most contract holders have factored in this cost to compute their break-even point. The worksheet below will show some of the deals that are available. The majority of these deals do not appear in the MLS. The data used to create this spreadsheet was provided by a sales agent working for Ten Museum Park.
The best deal in the building right now is unit 1607. As the worksheet reveals, it has a price per square foot of $363. That is remarkable for a building of this caliber!
Ten Museum Park is located in a Downtown Miami neighborhood now known as Park West. Besides Ten Museum Park, Park West will have three additions to the neighborhood in the next 12 months. These include the following:
There are a few things that I love about Ten Museum Park. One, is that it only has 200 units. I definitely wouldn’t call it a boutique building but it isn’t a monster development either. Two, the price per square foot is much lower than in these other buildings. The building was able to launch sales and begin construction in 2004, prior to when construction costs began to escalate. These other developments weren’t as fortunate and had to price their units in accordance with the higher construction costs that needed to be taken into consideration. I also love the open floor plans at Ten Museum Park. If you’re a fan of lofts then you’ll appreciate the layouts of the units at Ten Museum Park.
I learned today that when the real estate market was red hot, a few of the “04” units sold as high as $1.3M during resales. Those people are pretty screwed. Fortunately, the lender, Mellon Financial Corporation, only allowed the unit to be resold a maximum of one time. It may seem logical for some of these buyers to walk away from their deposits seeing that comparable units are now on the market at a 38% discount to what they paid. If one of the resale buyers walks away from their deposit then the initial buyer is on the hook to close. I learned, however, that if this scenario were to occur, the 20% deposit forfeited by the second buyer would be applied to the initial purchase price of the first buyer. That is a pretty sweet deal! An instant 20 percent in equity just like that.
I’ve scheduled to have a tour of Ten Museum Park late next week. I’ll be sure to take lots of pictures and shoot as much video as I can. I’m looking forward to seeing the penthouse unit with the 1,298 square foot rooftop terrace and vitality pool.
Icon Brickell – 2 Bedroom+Den/2 Bath Becomes Available
Word came to me today that an early contract holder at Icon Brickell has passed away and his contract is up for grabs. The contract has passed from his estate to the developer and The Related Group has it back on the market at the initial price offered when it was purchased in mid-2005. Icon Brickell sold out relatively fast in 2005 and availability is now limited to the condo-hotel units in the Viceroy tower. The Related Group is the most successful developer in Florida and has the reputation of selling out their buildings within the first week. They are known to price their units very well and to leave profit on the table for purchasers rather than squeeze every last penny out of a project. They price their units slightly below market, sell out and then move onto the next project. Great business plan, and it has worked quite well for them.
The condo unit that just came back on the market is unit 2703, located in tower one of the Icon Brickell development. It is floor plan B, which has a southeast view. The picture below will give you an idea of the view that you would have.
It is a 2 bedroom plus den/2 bath with 1,503 square feet of living space and has a 219 square foot balcony. It is priced at $916,000, or $607 per square foot.
Icon Brickell is the second development with the Icon name attached. Icon South Beach was the first and is one of the most well known buildings in South Beach. Icon Brickell is sure to be as spectacular as its South Beach counterpart. The picture slideshow below will show you some renderings of the building and amenities.
Neo Vertika – Living in a War Zone (pictures)
If the building, Neo Vertika, were a stock, I’d be selling it short all day long! This is a follow-up to a previous entry that I wrote on May 21, 2007 entitled, “Shoddy Construction at Neo Vertika?“. Now, there is no question about it.
When I wrote that piece, I had heard about all kinds of problems from residents including three major water leakages, the sprinkler system needing to be replaced in the entire building and each individual unit, and the air conditioning system being unusually loud. I didn’t realize just how bad it was until today. A client of mine, who is renting a Penthouse unit at Neo Vertika, sent me some pictures of the present condition of his condo unit. He began his lease at the very end of April and still has not been able to move his belongings into the unit. It goes without saying that he is looking to break his lease and get his money back. After seeing the following pictures I don’t blame him one bit. Work to replace the sprinkler system in his unit began last week, and he was told that it would take a total of 2-3 weeks. This is occurring in each and every condo unit in the entire building! Neo Vertika is not even one year old yet.
Imagine how high the cost of insurance will be for the building after all the work has been completed. I’m predicting that within the next six months, the association will increase maintenance fees and/or declare a special assessment. If that happens, which I feel is inevitable, prices at Neo Vertika will surely continue to head south.
Update: One Miami Notice
I have had a chance to review the revised lease application checklist that is now required by the association at One Miami. There have been a few changes made to the leasing requirements that must be met prior to tenant approval. The revisions were made by the One Miami Board of Directors as mentioned in my previous post entitled “One Miami Notice“. In addition to a common area’s deposit equal to one month’s rent, the One Miami association has implemented a building pet deposit of $250.00 which is non-refundable. The common areas deposit is refundable as long as damages are not made by the tenant during the length of the lease. Another significant change made by the One Miami association is that a maximum of one lease will be allowed over any 12 month period. Previously, they had allowed a maximum of two leases per year. It seems that the Board of Directors feels that eliminating short-term rentals could be a good way of alleviating some of the tenant problems. Lastly, the revised application checklist mentions that all maintenance payments must be paid to date prior to any tenant application processing. All other fees and regulations have remained the same.
Although these changes will put a damper on the rental business that I conduct at One Miami, I feel that this is a move in the right direction for condo owners there. While investors in the building may be negatively affected in the short run, I feel that the long term investment picture at One Miami has improved as a result of these changes.
Shoddy Construction at Neo Vertika?
This has been a blog topic that has been on the back of my mind for the past couple of months. I kept brushing it off as nothing more than residents griping out loud, but after delving deeper into the issues, I now realize that there are major questions to the quality of construction that was put into the development of Neo Vertika. Neo Vertika resides in the neighborhood of Miami known as Brickell, or West Brickell to some. It was completed in August of 2006 and has had nothing but problems since its inception. There have been three major water leakages, two of which resulted in entire floors being flooded; the building sprinkler system has needed replacement, requiring worker-access to each and every unit; and the air conditioning system is unusually loud. I have personally spoken to a few condo owners at Neo Vertika who received hefty insurance checks after having their units flooded, which had destroyed their recently laid hardwood floors. While these payments might be justifiable to the afflicted parties, they will inevitably be paid for by current and future condo owners of that building, either directly or indirectly. My guess is that a major increase in association fees is just around the corner for condo owners at Neo Vertika.
Prices at Neo Vertika have dipped in the last six months. The various problems with the building, such as the ones mentioned here, will likely pour salt in an open wound and make matters worse. I have also heard similiar construction complaints about the first Neo LLC development known as Neo Lofts. This makes me wonder how sound the other two developments currently under construction by Neo LLC, known as Wind and Cima, can be. Maybe Coastal Construction Group, the construction company used to build Neo Vertika, can get it right this time with Wind and Cima.
In other news at Neo Vertika, the pool-side bar is now complete. While Miami has the reputation of being a 24/7 party, this type of action is unheard of for a condo building in Miami. Prior to the installation of the pool-side bar, I have had several clients complain that the building has turned into a fraternity house. While this might be an ideal situation for some, most condo owners there will suffer. I’m guessing that the opening of the pool-side bar, and the money that will be made from it, is management’s answer to the ensuing insurance hike that will inevitably occur. Anything not tackled by the profit of the pool-side bar will eventually be passed along to condo owners in higher association fees.
At least the construction of the bar looks good. Take a look at the pictures above and the video below to see it for yourself. Cheers!
