Villa Magna Project Lives On…
…at least for the time being. The “Miami Today News” reported last week that the Villa Magna project is still pushing forward. I guess we can all scrap the inkling of a dream that the land would become a public park. I don’t think any of us actually thought it would be turned into a park but rather just wishful thinking that the city wanted a nice green space for the residents of Brickell. The Villa Magna project will reside on the last bayfront lot in Brickell. Now, we can all move on to hoping that the Brickell CitiCentre land will become a public park.
The same issue of the “Miami Today News ” also discussed the relocation of the Camillus House. For those not local to Miami, the Camillus House is a homeless shelter located in the neighborhood of Park West, a few blocks west of new luxury condo high-rise buildings such as Ten Museum Park, 900 Biscayne Bay, Marquis and Marina Blue. The good news is that the relocation of the homeless shelter is still going to happen. The bad news is that the move won’t happen until 2010. I think residents of these condo buildings are highly anticipating that day to arrive. The neighborhood will see a dramatic improvement and, as the article mentions, commercial developers will be more prone to open retail space in the neighborhood. 2010 will be a great year! The Super Bowl will be returning to Miami and Camillus House will be heading west!
Update: I do plan to update this blog on a more frequent basis like you had enjoyed in the past. I took some time off but now I’m back in full blogging mode. The new “Condo Deals” page is coming along nicely and should be rolled out by the end of next week. I’m looking forward to that as well as a few other changes that I think you’ll all enjoy.
Beautiful 5 Bedroom Condo at Villa Regina with 4,100 Square Feet – $1,499,900
Five-bedroom condos in Brickell are very rare. In fact, at this time, there are only two other condos in Brickell that are listed on the MLS with that many bedrooms. Just last week, I listed the best priced 5 bedroom condo in Brickell in a building called Villa Regina. The new listing is attractively priced at $1,499,900. The next best priced 5 bedroom residence is listed for over $1M more.
If size, quality, and location are what you need, then look no further. The 5 bedroom listing at Villa Regina spans 4,100 square feet (380.9 square meters), has a total of 15 rooms, 5 full bathrooms, comes with 3 parking spaces, has 4 terraces with gorgeous bay and city views and has been tastefully remodeled. The kitchen has new granite countertops and stainless steel appliances with custom cabinetry. The air conditioning system was also replaced 3 months ago and the condo has impact resistance windows and shutters.
The amenities at Villa Regina include: 24-hour full-service concierge and security, swimming pool, fitness center, his and her spas, barbecue area and 4 grand party rooms. Villa Regina is located directly on Biscayne Bay and is one of the few condo buildings in Brickell with its own private marina.
Contact me today if you’d like to take a look at this 5 bedroom condo at Villa Regina.
Miami Condo News & Rumors
I’ve heard, saw and ascertained much on the street within the past couple of weeks regarding the Miami condo market but haven’t had the time to write an in-depth post about each item. I figured that something short and sweet is better than nothing at all. So here it is:
- As many of you have already heard, a construction crane fell this afternoon at around 1:45pm at Paramount Bay. 2 people were reported dead and 5 reported injured. My warmest regards goes out to all with family or friends involved in the accident. The crane fell through the roof of the home that belonged to Mary in the 1998 film Something About Mary. Though many of you have called and emailed, no, Mary was not harmed during the accident.
- This one goes into the “rumor” category. I’ve heard that BAP Development is on the brink of bankruptcy. BAP Development is the developer behind Onyx on the Bay. Closings for condos at Onyx on the Bay began on July 31, 2007. My February condo closing rate post revealed that Onyx on the Bay was able to close only 45.38 percent of its units at the time. Another rumor that I’ve heard, but haven’t been able to confirm, is that Continental, the property management company, walked out on Onyx on the Bay because the developer was unable to pay them any longer. Anyone hear anything regarding this?
- Another rumor here. A loyal reader revealed to me today, via email, that he heard today that Boca Developers “went belly up” . Boca Developers is the development company behind Peninsula I, Peninsula II and Biscayne Landing. He also stated that he was able to confirm that Boca Developers “cut loose” their sales staff for Peninsula II and Biscayne Landing. Has anyone else out there caught wind of this?
- Closings have begun at Continuum North Tower in South Beach. I’ll get my chance to tour the newest addition to South of Fifth this Thursday morning with some out-of-state clients. I will try to share what I see that day with readers of this blog at a later date.
- There’s going to be some great additions to Midtown Miami. This one I heard from a Midtown representative last week. The two parcels of land between the Midtown shops and the two condo buildings just east of it, Midtown 2 and 4, will be transformed into a very nice park within the next 3 months. However, there are plans for an IMAX Theater to go into the northern parcel of land within the next 2-3 years. Additionally, Midblock will house a Sushi Samba and Segafredo’s relatively soon. I was pretty pessimistic about Midtown about six months ago but I think this is going to be the place to be for 20-somethings in about 3 years. It may very well become what it was promised to be: a city within a city.
- Someone recently left a comment saying that, after 3 appraisals, they were unable to have their condo at 1060 Brickell appraise for the amount on their purchase contract. Any other contract holders at 1060 Brickell having this problem?
- Asking prices of condos in the “mortgage fraud” buildings in Brickell have come down BIG since November 2007. The last time I did a Brickell Condo Index was November 2007. Last Tuesday, I pulled some new data. I haven’t had the time to reveal a full-blown monthly Brickell Condo Index, but I will reveal what the asking prices for the following buildings with prevalent mortgage fraud have fallen since November 2007:
- The Club at Brickell Bay – The average asking price per square foot has fallen 22.86% since November 2007.
- Vue at Brickell – Average asking price per square foot has fallen 19.60% since November 2007.
- Jade at Brickell Bay – The average asking price per square foot has fallen 16.24% since November 2007.
Those are some large reductions in asking prices since November 2007. Only time will tell how much further the “fallen angels” will fall.
Another Miami Condo Lawsuit
CBS4’s correspondent, David Sutta, reported tonight about yet another lawsuit involving a Miami condo developer. The lawsuit was filed against the Related Group of Florida by contract holders who decided to walk away from their 20 percent deposit at 50 Biscayne. Apparently, the contract agreement stipulates that contract holders are entitled to 25 percent of their deposit money if they decide not to close. The lawsuit was filed because this money was never returned.
From the details that I’ve heard about the lawsuit, the plaintiff has a strong case against the developer. It seems to be a simple oversight in not including certain language that may have otherwise protected the developer. We shall see if condo litigation specialist, Beck & Lee, will be successful in getting their clients their money back.
New Miami Condos – Closings Rates for January 2008
The chart below will show you the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began. Click on the following links to view the updates in November and December:
Below you will find the date that each development began closings:
Before anybody says it, I realize that One Bal Harbour is not a “Miami Condo”. I didn’t want to change the title of the post just to reflect the fact that One Bal Harbour is located in Bal Harbour. I also didn’t want to exclude it from the list because there is much interest in One Bal Harbour, and besides, One Bal Harbour owners would criticize me for not providing an update when the closing rate has jumped since the last update.
The closing rate at One Bal Harbour has hit the 70 percent mark. This is a significant increase since last month’s update. The stock price of WCI surged about 15 percent in the regular session on Wall Street and another 19 percent in after-hours trading on Wednesday after it reported that it has successfully been able to amend its credit and loan agreements. The news story was not publicly disclosed until after the bell. There are currently 55 condo units that have not closed, according to public records. The news reveals that WCI now has a considerable amount of time to sell these last remaining condos.
Ten Museum Park has had about a 7 percent increase in its closing rate while 50 Biscayne has had about an 18 percent increase, since the December update. With the exception of One Bal Harbour, Ten Museum Park and 50 Biscayne, none of the other developments have had an increase of over 5 percent. The two new entries to this month’s update are Loft Downtown 2 and Quantum on the Bay. Loft Downtown 2 should have been included in the November update since closings began in September but it simply slipped my mind. Sporting a 74 percent closing rate, however, makes Loft Downtown 2 appear quite successful in comparison to the other Miami condos. The Grand Opening Party for Loft Downtown 2 is scheduled for Thursday evening.
Closings at Quantum on the Bay began earlier this month and as I’ve stated many times before, closings can take up to 2-3 weeks before they are recorded with the county (however, I have heard that as of January 1, 2008, this is no longer the case. A reliable source told me that a step that sometimes delays the process is no longer required. Closings should now be recorded within 1-2 days after the condo has closed. Can a title agent elaborate on this for me?). Don’t take too much away from the low closing rate at Quantum on the Bay. I mainly included it to act as a stepping stone for next month’s update and let everyone know that it is now on my radar.
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – November 2007
I’m going to start including a monthly condo trends report. My hope is that it will help to shed more light on the current state of the market. It is likely to be my most followed monthly piece. After the new year it, along with some other newly added statistics such as a rental market index, will become “premium” content. Just wanted to give you all the heads up. I just finished compiling the numbers and I was pretty shocked.
I basically wanted to find out how many months of inventory we have in Miami and Miami Beach. I created a report for Miami-Dade County, one for Miami and one for Miami Beach. I broke each report down to various price ranges to figure out which category has been affected the most. I took closed sales for the month of October and compared it to the inventory that is now available. Below you will find the numbers for Miami-Dade County:
As you can see Miami-Dade County has about 55 months, or 4.58 years, worth of inventory. I wanted to see how much of this supply resides in Miami compared to Miami Beach. Below you will find the numbers for Miami:
Miami currently has a 48 1/2 month, or approximately a 4 year, supply of condos. That’s actually much lower than I expected. However, keep in mind that there are thousands of condos that will come onto the market within the next 24 months. In fact, in July, I calculated that a little over 16,000 condos would hit the market within the next 19 months in the neighborhoods of Brickell Key, Brickell, Downtown Miami, Park West and the Performing Arts District. Probably about 1,500 or so units have hit the market since I wrote that post. If you add 14,500 units to the Miami figures above then we’re looking at close to a 10 year supply. Now that’s quite shocking!!!
Let’s take a look at the Miami Beach figures:
I was surprised to learn that the supply of Miami Beach condos is higher than that of Miami’s. The number of new condos coming onto the market, however, in Miami Beach pales in comparison to the new condos scheduled to hit the market within the next two years. My guess is that about 1,500 units will hit the Miami Beach market in that time which would put it at around an 8 year supply. Still pretty shocking given that it’s Miami Beach! I was equally shocked by the low number of closings in the $500,000-$999,999 price range. That appears to be a problematic price range if you’re a condo owner looking to sell somewhere in that range.
Despite a number of news stories that have hit the press lately, it looks like the ultra-luxury ($2.5M+) market isn’t moving. It has very few available listings compared to the other categories but it had basically no closed sales in October. There were a total of two in all of Dade-County. Both were located in Bal Harbour.
I receive a lot of monthly phone calls from investors who are waiting for the market to bottom-out. They all want to know when is the “right” time to buy into the South Florida condo market. I’m hoping that a report like the one above can help me pinpoint when that time might be.
A recent Fortune magazine article entitled, “Real Estate: Buy, Sell, or Hold?”, said the following:
The combination of steep discounts to move inventory and a stream of new communities built at a lower cost will keep prices far below their peak levels in the boom towns. And they’ll keep falling until builders work off the massive inventories. The tumbling prices of new homes, in turn, will put enormous pressure on the far bigger existing-home market, already under stress from two desperate groups of sellers, investors and banks. Hence, the adjustment needed to bring the ratio of prices to rents into alignment will happen far faster than in most housing downturns. “In the most vulnerable places in California and Florida, it’s highly possible that most of the correction will happen by the end of 2008,” says (Mark) Zandi, (chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com).
The article was mainly discussing single-family homes but I think the same holds true for the condo market. The Miami condo market is likely to drop lower, on a percentage basis, than other major U.S. cities but I agree with Mark Zandi that the market here will be quicker to correct itself because of the high number of foreclosures and defaults that we are likely to see. 2008 will be a time of readjustment. I’m looking quite forward to it.
Video of the Platinum Condominium Auction
Today, I finally had a chance to edit, render and upload the video that I shot of the Platinum Condominium auction last Thursday. I split it up into three separate video files which highlight key points of the auction. You can read my analysis of the Platinum Condominium auction.
An explanation of how the auction would work:
Kicking off the auction with the condos in Pool B:
Changing the rules and moving to Pool A:
Miami Condo Auction a Big Disappointment
(The video that I shot of tonight’s auction is at the bottom of this post.)
The Platinum Condominium auction has come and passed. The big talk of the town packed the house with auction participants, brokers, reporters and spectators. If tonight was any indication of what lies ahead, then the Miami condo market is in for a rude awakening. Miami condo developers are in for a sleepless night if word about tonight’s auction reaches them before bedtime.
It was apparent from the first round of bidding that the developer of Platinum Condominium had high expectations and high prices in mind tonight. Many people realized that the rules of the auction were quickly changed once the first round of bidding was over. A HUGE mistake on the part of the developer, if you ask me. The auction house, or maybe the developer, decided to start the auction with Group B. A colossal mistake in itself, in my opinion. Group B was comprised of 2 bedroom + den/2 bath condos; the best batch of condos of the three groups. This should have been left for last. Anyone looking to bid on a one bedroom, and sit this round out, would be in a favorable position if the high bids on the units in group B came in low. That is exactly what happened.
The first round of bidding ended with a high bid of $295,000, considerably lower than the prices that people recently closed on condos through preconstruction contracts in 2004. The recent closing prices for 01 line units ranged from $422,000 to $515,000 while the 07 line units ranged from $407,000 to $555,000. The developer must have been shocked at the outcome of the first round. The likely choice for the highest bidder was to select either unit 2107 or 1201. However, the highest bidder was convinced to select an absolute unit since any other choice would not be approved by the developer immediately, if at all. That announcement wasn’t made publicly but sitting in the front row has its advantages. The bidder selected unit 1001.
The second round of bidding began and once again ended with a high bid of $295,000. The highest bidder also wanted one of the non-absolute units but was likewise steered towards an absolute unit. That bidder selected unit 1907. The same result occurred with the third highest bidder which amounted to $295,000 as well. That person selected $295,000.
The third round of bidding ended with the same result. The auctioneer made an announcement before proceeding with the fourth round of bidding. It was then publicly known that only absolute units would be auctioned at this time. The disappointment in the crowd was felt throughout the room. Two words seemed to form on the lips of people in attendance: “marketing ploy”. The crowd thinned-out thereafter.
The results of the first eight rounds of the auction are below:
- 1st Round: Unit 1001 – $295,000
- 2nd Round: Unit 1907 – $295,000
- 3rd Round: Unit 1607 – $295,000
- 4th Round: Unit 1602 – $200,000
- 5th Round: Unit 1806 – $175,000
- 6th Round: Loft-107 – $160,000
- 7th Round: Unit 301 – $320,000
- 8th Round: Unit 707 – $295,000
The 02 line had recent closings from preconstruction contracts that ranged from $235,000 to $345,000 while the 06 line ranged from $242,000 to $390,000. Two small lofts, equivalent to Loft-107, recently closed: one for $260,000 and the other for $267,500.
I think most still in attendance anticipated the auction to end after the 8th round. However, Group A was selected and another round of bidding began. It was quickly announced that the next unit chosen would also be absolute. Once again interest was restored by the crowd but failed to bring any noteworthy bids. The round ended with a high bid of $245,000. The highest bidder selected unit 1905, a 2 bedroom/2 bath condo.
The bidding commenced once again but it was announced that any high bids from thereon out would be subject to developer approval. Below you will find the results of the 9th through 16th rounds:
- 9th Round: Unit 1905 – $245,000 (Absolute)
- 10th Round: Unit 1705 – $230,000 (*)
- 11th Round: Unit 2102 – $185,000 (*)
- 12th Round: Unit 1201 – $300,000 (*)
- 13th Round: Unit 1101 – $300,000 (*)
- 14th Round: Unit 2107 – $265,000 (*)
- 15th Round: Unit 2007 – $265,000 (*)
- 16th Round: Unit 501 – $300,000 (*)
The asterisk (*) above indicates that those units were subject to approval from the developer. In other words, those weren’t officially sold.
9 condos sold tonight. 9 out of 20. Maybe a few others will sell once someone gives the developer a good kick in the noggin, but only 9 were officially approved tonight by the developer. I posted a poll along the side of my site a couple of nights ago to ask visitors how many condos they thought would get auctioned at tonight’s auction. The highest response was that all 20 of the units would get sold. What a huge disappointment.
The developer not only did a huge disservice to himself, but to the Miami condo market as well, by not allowing the condo auction to run its planned course. There were two stories that could have possibly emerged as a result of tonight’s event: (1) the auction was a tremendous success and confidence in the Miami condo market has been restored at a downwardly revised level, or (2) the auction was a disappointing failure and Miami condo developers should soon be seeing brown stains appear in their underpants. I can assure you that other Miami condo developers were keeping a close eye on tonight’s event. I think many of them saw the auction system as a last resort. But with their last resort being extinguished as a result of tonight’s disappointing outcome, what more can they count on?
The answer is simple, the banks. The Miami condo developers are not sitting alone in the condo glut that we are experiencing here in South Florida. The banks, and their shareholders, are ultimately the ones who will feel the brunt of the pain. If banks can’t rely on developers to utilize the auction system to successfully liquidate unsold or defaulted units then their only alternative is to take possession of the units that represent the portion of the building that has not closed. Ultimately, these properties will get sold for 50 cents on the dollar, or less, to large investment funds that can buy in blocks of $10M+.
My prediction is that the Miami condo market will have a holiday close-out sale in the winter months. It will “coincidentally” coincide with our peak-season when thousands of snow birds will flock to our tropical climes. More demand, but also extra inventory.
I am very curious to read what the reporters that attended tonight’s auction write about tonight’s event within the next couple of days. Will they have an optimistic perspective, a pessimistic take or an honest-to-goodness report like you’ve read here at the Miami Condo Investments Blog? We shall see.
The following video explains how the auction would work:
Kicking off the auction with Pool B:
Changing the rules and moving to Pool A:
Corus Bank – One of the Many Publicly Owned Real Estate-Related Companies to See Trouble Ahead
In previous posts, I’ve revealed that Corus Bank is a prominent lender to condo developers in Miami Miami Beach. A recently published article by TheStreet.com entitled “Corus Swept Up in Florida Condo Undertow” may reveal that my analysis of Corus Bank was actually conservative. The article revealed that, for good reason, “55 percent of the stock’s float is being sold short, meaning that investors are betting on a decline in the stock’s value”.
This figure is as of no surprise to me knowing the full extent of Corus Bank’s lending practices to Miami and Miami Beach developments such as Ivy at Riverfront, Mint at Riverfront, Paramount Bay, Infinity at Brickell, Jade Ocean, Continuum South Beach North Tower, Artecity, Marina Blue, Caribbean, Quantum on the Bay and Onyx on the Bay. My guess is that at least six of the ten developments will have problems that extend far beyond what many have imagined.
Since August 4, 2007, when I mentioned Corus Bank (NASDAQ: CORS) in one of my posts, the stock has lost a little over 22 percent of its value. I am definitely not saying that I had anything to do with that. Much of the loss was due to two articles about Corus Bank that were written by TheStreet.com towards the end of August. People have begun to see that Corus Bank has troubled times ahead if condo developers in Miami and Miami Beach have difficulty closing on their units.
Recently, Corus Bank paid its shareholders a cash dividend of 25 cents per share. At first glance, this news may sound promising for Corus Bank since it shows that they have extra cash on-hand. However, my sources tell me otherwise. Joseph Glickman, Chairman of Corus Bank, and his family control about 50 percent of the company. The cash dividend may be a way of getting cash out of the company.
If Mr. Glickman and his family had confidence in the company’s future and felt that the stock was undervalued then they would instead use the company cash to buy back its own stock. The family would then control a larger stake in the company. Earlier this year, the board authorized a share repurchase program but they have yet to repurchase one share of stock.
My source has disclosed to me the following: “Years ago Corus used to include in their 10-K Annual Report an analysis of their loan losses should a serious real estate recession occur. 2004 was the last time they performed the analysis (by the way, interesting to note is that they stopped providing this disclosure to shareholders). You can find the one from 2004 here. Just go to page 70 of the Annual Report for the “Commercial Real Estate Risk” section. Back then they were estimating that they would incur $143M in loan losses from their $5.3B loan portfolio should such a serious real estate recession occur. Well, fast forward three years and their loan balance has grown to $8B for the most recent quarter (6/30/07). Applying the same ratio from the 2004 analysis, I estimate that their loan losses could exceed $200M today. That’s more than a quarter of their book value. Now of course this is all hypothetical. Corus did not disclose how they were arriving at those numbers, or how they were defining a ‘serious real estate recession’. It’s garbage-in garbage-out as they say, but at least the analysis they used to perform gives you some numbers you can work with. I honestly think it could be worse though.”
It will be interesting to see in the following 12-24 months where shares of Corus Bank will be given the large amount of money that they loaned to Miami and Miami Beach developers. The following is a list of the Miami and Miami Beach condo developments that they loaned money to, as well as the amount of each loan:
- Artecity – $60,300,000
- Caribbean Miami Beach – $124,700,000
- Continuum South Beach North Tower – $135,000,000
- Infinity at Brickell – $140,300,000
- Ivy at Riverfront – $130,400,000
- Jade Ocean – $288,115,000
- Marina Blue – $110,000,000
- Mint at Riverfront – $191,800,000
- Onyx on the Bay – $44,100,000
- Paramount Bay – $216,000,000
- Quantum on the Bay – $145,000,000
