A few months ago, I referred to a secret project that I was working on that would crush my competition. We’ve had a few delays, but after a little over 3 months of work we are now very close to completing it. Today, I provide you a sneak peek of that project. It’s an iPhone application that will revolutionize the industry. I’ve done a ton of research on the capabilities and flaws of the iPhone and have thought of everything. I won’t go into the features of the application at this point for obvious reasons but I must say that I’m very proud of this little pocket rocket. In the picture above, you see the start up screen. I didn’t want to reveal too much at this time but I will unveil other screen shots within the next two weeks and go into all of the features of the Miami Condo Investments iPhone application. I’m also preparing to launch the same application on the Android platform early next year.
Early next month, I’m also planning to launch a new website. It’s coming along very well and it has exceeded all of my expectations. I recently brought in an assistant and showing agent to help me during these months of expansion. I’m looking to bring in 1-2 additional agents within the next couple of months. My plan is to solely concentrate on this website and the iPhone application and crank out 5-6 posts per week. Unfortunately, that means that I won’t be able to do anymore showings. However, you can be rest assured that you will always meet with a quality agent who knows the South Florida condo markets as well as I do (well maybe not that well).
Starwood Capital Group to Acquire Corus Bank Assets
I received a phone call 10 minutes ago from a friend to give me the news that it appears that Starwood Capital Group will acquire the remaining assets of Corus Bank. Unfortunately, Reuters beat me to the punch and reported the story about an hour ago. The rise and fall of Corus Bank has been a story that I have chronicled extensively over the past two years because of the obvious connection the company has to the Miami condo market. The final chapter has now closed and it will be up to Starwood Capital Group to establish the floor for the condo market here in South Florida.
Onyx on the Bay Note Purchased By Hyperion Onyx Partners, LLC
I learned late last week that Hyperion Onyx Partners, LLC, an affiliate of Hyperion Development Group purchased the note for Onyx on the Bay. The note was held by the now defunct Corus Bank and was acquired just days before the Chicago-based bank was taken over by the FDIC. Hyperion Development is the developer behind Marina Blue, one of the few recently constructed condo developments that have been able to close 100 percent of their units. This represents Hyperion Development Group’s first soiree into asset acquisition. Details of the transaction have yet to be disclosed.
Onyx on the Bay is a 118-unit bayfront condo development located in Edgewater Miami at 665 NE 25 Street. Condo closings began on July 31, 2007. It’ll be interesting to see at what price the unsold condos at Onyx on the Bay are priced at if Hyperion Development Group chooses to resell them immediately. There are currently 11 condos available for sale on the MLS at an average price per square foot of $368. 3 of the 11 condos are short sales. There are currently zero pending sales and a condo hasn’t closed at Onyx on the Bay in over a year. My guess is that pricing will need to be at around $175 per square foot in order for the unsold inventory to move.
As many of you read earlier today, the Case-Shiller price index rose on a month-to-month basis for the first time in 3 years. 13 of the 20 cities in the index showed month-over-month price gains in May when compared with April 2009. However, Miami was not one of the 13 cities to show an improvement in prices. Home prices in Miami saw a decrease of .8 percent during that period.
There may not have been an increase in home prices in Miami but the figures below show a major improvement in the number of closed condo sales in the previous six months when compared to the closed condo sales in the six months prior to January 2009. For example, there were 3,551 closed condo sales in the six months leading up to January 2009 compared to the 5,007 closed condo sales that occurred within the past six months. That’s an increase of 41 percent. The number of closed condo sales in Miami improved approximately 39 percent while closed condo sales in Miami Beach increased about 20 percent. As a result, the condo supply numbers for each showed considerable improvements as well.
View the entire workbook for this month’s Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends. The various spreadsheets and graphs are found at the bottom.
Below, you will find the Miami-Dade County condo inventory and supply figures for July 2009:
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami (not other areas of Dade County such as Miami Beach, Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach, etc.):
This has been a very atypical year for real estate sales in South Florida. In most years, the vast majority of closed condo sales occur in the Winter months when snowbirds flock to Florida to shop for a vacation home to escape the dreaded cold. However, this past Winter season was unusually slow due to a number of reasons such as the paralyzing fear in the economy and a lack of financing. After the first 3 months of the year, I personally felt that 2009 was shaping up to be my worst year in real estate. However, at the beginning of April, business began to show life again. In fact, activity has drastically improved to the point where 2009 could end up being one of my best years. I personally feel that the Miami condo market is within 2-3 months of reaching the bottom. That’s in no way saying that prices will begin to increase soon after. The overall market needs to move sideways for at least the next 12-24 months before we see any significant increase in sales prices.
Another Look at Corus Bank
This has been a post that has been on my mind for over two weeks.
Before reading any further, please read the post I published on September 10, 2007 entitled, “Corus Bank – One of the Many Publicly Owned Real Estate-Related Companies to See Trouble Ahead“. There are two things that amaze me most about that post. One, the growth in the number of comments left by visitors astonishes me. That was one of the most informative posts that I’ve ever written yet it only received 6 comments. Now, I write about a CVS opening at the base of Everglades on the Bay and there’s over 130 comments. I guess, as they say “If you build it, they will come”. Two, I’m amazed by just how dead on target my words turned out to be.
As the post mentions, Corus Bank had, and still has, significant exposure in the Miami condo market. The day that the September 2007 post was published, Corus Bank’s stock price closed at $12.50. Currently, the stock price is hovering around the $1 mark and has dipped as low as 82 cents per share recently. A few weeks ago, Corus Bank announced that they would be deferring interest payments on their debt and had also applied for funds under the U.S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
Corus Bank was successful in having its construction loan for Quantum on the Bay and Marina Blue paid in full in 2008. I believe they also had equal success with Continuum North Tower. How will Corus Bank fare in future months, however, with the condo developments that either recently began closings or have yet to begin? The following are some of the condo developments in South Florida in which Corus Bank still has an outstanding construction loan along with the original loan amount:
Of the condo developments listed above, Onyx on the Bay is the only one in which Corus Bank has recovered most of its loan amount judging by the closing figures I published in September 2008. They may be very close to being paid in full on it, if they they haven’t been already.
Closings for condos at Jade Ocean, Paramount Bay and Mint at Riverfront have yet to begin. I’ve heard that closings for condos at Infinity at Brickell began a few weeks ago. These four condo developments alone represent slightly over $800M in outstanding loans. All four condo developments were priced relatively late in the game and could prove to be disastrous for an already troubled Corus Bank.
On top of this, it was announced a little over a week ago that the developer of Tao, a 396-unit condo development in Sunrise, Florida, handed the property over to Corus Bank with work unfinished and closings yet to begin. The construction loan extended by Corus Bank to the developer of Tao was in the amount of $126,250,000. Additionally, Corus Bank purchased the mezzanine loan on Tao in the amount of $32.3M, which included principal plus outstanding interest.
It appears that Corus Bank could be wobbling on its last leg. If it were to go bankrupt, the Miami condo market could see a number of bulk sales occur in 2009. Even if it were to be granted federal funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, how long could that money delay the inevitable?
Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – October 2008
Below, you will find the Miami-Dade County condo inventory and months of supply figures for October 2008. The first box to the left reveals the total number of condos that are currently available for sale on the MLS throughout Miami-Dade County. The second box discloses the total number of closed sales that occurred in the month of September 2008. The third and fourth boxes show the months and years of condo supply in Miami-Dade County. As you can see, the figures are also subdivided into various price ranges to reveal which part of the condo market has been most affected. The % change box will show you how the inventory levels have changed since my last update in May 2008.
The overall supply of condos listed in the MLS in Miami-Dade County has dropped from 25,461 to 24,788 since May 2008. On the flip side, the number of closed sales in the previous month has gone up from 474 to 527 creating a 12.51 percent drop in the years of inventory in Miami-Dade County since the last update. It’s once again surprising that inventory levels have dropped despite the thousands of new condos that have been completed and delivered in 2008.
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami (not other areas of Dade County such as Miami Beach, Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach, etc.):
The supply of condos in the MLS in Miami has dropped from 10,281 to 9,903 since May 2008. The number of closed sales in the previous month has gone up from 161 to 192 creating a 19.21 percent drop in years of inventory in Miami since the last update. As you can see, a large portion of these closed sales occurred in the $0-$249,999 price range. The inventory levels of the $500,000+ categories, however, have increased.
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami Beach:
The supply of condos in the MLS in Miami Beach has dropped from 4,109 to 3,949 since May 2008. However, the number of closed sales in the previous month has also dropped from 113 to 98 creating a 10.82 percent increase in years of inventory for condos in Miami Beach since the last update. In fact, with the exception of the $500,000-$999,999 price range, the years of inventory has risen for each category.
CVS/pharmacy to Open at Everglades on the Bay
A few weeks ago, when I drove by Everglades on the Bay (now known as Vizcayne North) I noticed the “CVS/pharmacy Coming Soon!” sign hanging in the window of their large ground floor commercial space. This may not be jawdropping news but I do think that it is a good sign for Downtown Miami. It shows that the much needed infrastructure for this neighborhood is finally on its way. Large chains are starting to see that Downtown Miami is a viable neighborhood with enough residents to sustain a business despite the current economic downturn.
As far as I’ve heard, Everglades on the Bay has not yet begun closings but closings will begin shortly. It’s great to see that Everglades on the Bay was able to acquire such a strong commercial tenant so soon. There are condo buildings in Miami that began closings over a year ago that still have commercial space that is unoccupied.
Miami World Center
I’ve been on vacation for the past week but I have kept up with the comments that have been left about the Arts District and Park West. While both sides of the argument have valid points, I tend to side with AJ more than the others. I don’t consider the Arts District or Park West dangerous. It may have some shady characters at night but which neighborhood in a large city doesn’t? When I lived in Chicago, I lived in a neighborhood called the Gold Coast for a few years. It was, and still is, one of the best neighborhoods in Chicago. A mile away, however, was the housing project called Cabrini Green which had the reputation for being one of the worst neighborhoods in the NATION!
Cabrini Green has since been relocated to another area. My point is that large cities take time to transition. Park West and the Arts District of Miami are in their early stages of transitioning. There are several proposed city improvements for these two neighborhoods that will transform them. One of these proposed improvements is the Miami World Center. Take a look at their website to view various renderings of what the area behind 900 Biscayne Bay, Ten Museum Park and Marina Blue will look like once this plan is implemented. Again, it will take some time, however. The Miami World Center plan will probably not become a realization for another 5-7 years but when it does it will provide the infrastructure that is much needed in that area. My bet is that Edgewater and Park West will be among the best neighborhoods to live in about 10 years.
Update: The Mall at Miami Worldcenter is scheduled to break ground by the end of 2014. Reservations for condos at Paramount Miami Worldcenter will start on November 18, 2014.
Housing Bailout Plan
It’s official! The U.S. Senate has passed a housing bailout plan that will end up costing taxpayers an estimated $25B. This is an estimate that the Congressional Budget Office says could potentially reach $100B. Now, it’s up to George W. Bush to sign on the dotted line to finalize it.
I’m NOT an advocate of this housing bailout plan. I saw too many people unwisely refinance their properties to withdraw money from the paper profits in their luxury homes in Miami in order to spend the money on new vehicles, surround-sound systems, large plasma TVs, furniture, clothes, etc. Now, the government wants the country to foot the bill for these people to reminisce about the times that they were living LARGE?
It doesn’t sound like a “plan” to me. Senator Charles Grassley, of Iowa, says it best when he states, “This bill has fallen prey to the special interests on Wall Street and K Street at an unjustifiable expense to taxpayers and homeowners on Main Street”. Who are we kidding when we think that we actually have a say in what happens in this country? Large corporate banks, mortgage companies, real estate conglomerates, developers and any other real estate-related entities have lobbyists that have the upper hand over what the American people actually want. We’re all just pawns with hopes to checkmate, but end up being eliminated after the third move.
You may also want to watch the video of Congressman Ron Paul’s comments on the housing bailout plan. It is quite interesting and makes you see the other side of the story from a true American who cares about this country.
