Will History Repeat Itself in Miami?

Earlier this week, I showed a few condos at Villa Regina to a lady who has owned a unit in the building since 1983. She and her husband purchased their condo in November of that year. She told me that for the first year and a half to two years only 25 condos were owned of the 208 total units. The bust had happened and nobody wanted to buy. The developer, Nicholas Morley, eventually went under and the building was later taken over by the FDIC. Nicholas Morley, was a big-time developer back then who was the equivalent of today’s Jorge Perez or Ugo Columbo.

She said that nobody would touch Villa Regina with a ten-foot pole for the first two years after she purchased because the building was either in receivership, meaning that it was undergoing foreclosure proceedings, or it had already been foreclosed upon. As a result, the common areas were under-maintained. The building didn’t have any security, air conditioning in the hallways, a concierge in the lobby nor valet service.

Before the building went into receivership, she, her husband and the condo owners who represented the other 24 units met each month to resolve the problems. They wanted answers. No, in fact, they wanted action. Each month, the condo board sent requests to the developer stating that they themselves would pay to have the building maintained 100 percent. The developer never answered their pleas.

After Villa Regina was foreclosed upon, there were rumors that Nicholas Morley wished to acquire the building from the FDIC for 10 cents on the dollar. The condo board sent letters to the FDIC to prevent this from happening. Nicholas Morley had made them suffer long enough and they didn’t wish to take any chances.

An investment group stepped up to the plate and purchased the remaining units at Villa Regina from the FDIC, a few years after she and her husband had purchased their condo. She stated that “almost overnight, there was interest in buying condos at Villa Regina”. I asked her for how much the investment group purchased the remaining units. She didn’t know but guessed that it was around 50 cents on the dollar. The level of maintenance that was initially promised had finally been restored. People wanted in because the dark cloud that hung over Villa Regina had been lifted. The investment group was then able to sell the remaining units for a profit.

It was especially interesting to hear, from the above source, that the building fell into the hands of the FDIC. This indicates to me that the bank which loaned the money to the developer also went under as well. I don’t expect buildings in Miami on the horizon, however, to fall into the hands of the FDIC for too long, if at all. The world is too widely connected nowadays. Information exchanges hands at such a rapid pace. Investment groups will act much faster in today’s era than that of the 1980s. If a bank yells, “Help!”, several investment groups will be there to say, “Help has arrived, but how bad do you need it?”.

There’s been talk that the current boom and bust in Miami is worse than had existed in the early 1980s. I’ve advised my readers time and again to watch out for the new digs. If you feel like buying, then look for those buildings that were built prior to 2000. They have much more stability because most units in those buildings are owner-occupied. Investors/speculators flocked to the new buildings and those that were yet to be built. The possibility of the above occurring in a new condo development in Miami is likely within the next couple of years. That’s why I’ve been keeping a close eye on each new development’s ability to close units. If you are interested in buying in a new development then you must be aware of the default rate that is occurring there. Those with a default rate higher than 30 percent, in my opinion, will be ones to stay away from until much of this excess supply is purchased.

The oversupply problem in Miami does indeed currently exist and is worse than that which existed in the early 1980s. However, the level of demand that currently exists far outpaces that of which was evident in that decade. Miami is now on the map. Miami now has world-wide attention. The strength of foreign currencies relative to the U.S. Dollar has made it more alluring for foreigners to buy here. It has also become a mecca for second-home buyers, retirees and those who wish to live in tropical climes throughout the year.

The opening lines of the movie Armageddon says, “It happened before. It will happen again. It’s just a question of when”. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself in Miami and, if so, then to what extent.

2 Bedroom/2 Bath Bank-Owned Foreclosure at Murano Grande in South Beach

A 2 bedroom/2 bath bank-owned condo at Murano Grande just became available yesterday. The unit has 1,437 square feet of interior space, with marble floors throughout, and is listed at $899,000, or $626 per square foot. The price is negotiable. The condo is located on the 23rd floor and has panoramic views of Biscayne Bay, the city and the Atlantic Ocean.

The latest South Beach Condo Index reveals that units at Murano Grande have sold for an average price per square foot of $752 over the past six months.

The following are other 09 units currently listed in the building:

• Unit 809 – $875,000
• Unit 709 – $885,000
• Unit 1009 – $944,000
• Unit 1909 – $999,999
• Unit 1109 – $1,025,000
• Unit 1709 – $1,199,500

There have been two 09 line condos at Murano Grande that have closed within the past 12 months. The first is unit 2109 which closed for $950,000 on December 21, 2006. The second is unit 1809 which closed on November 11, 2006 for $1,150,000. None have closed within the past six months.

Click on the following link to view the MLS information pertaining to unit 2309 at Murano Grande. Contact me if you or someone you know has an interest in viewing this bank-owned foreclosure in person.

100+ Properties to be Auctioned This Saturday

Over 100 properties located throughout South Florida will be auctioned this Saturday in Fort Lauderdale. I’ve known about this auction for quite some time but wasn’t sure whether or not I should write a post about it for a couple of reasons. One, most of the properties are predominantly single family homes while my blog only discusses condominiums. Two, only a handful of the properties are located in Miami and Miami Beach, which is where I focus most of my energy.

I decided to go ahead and inform everybody about it though because a few of the condos reside in developments that I’ve previously mentioned. For example, two condos from Vue at Brickell will be auctioned on Saturday while The Club at Brickell Bay will have one. No surprise there!

Here is a list of some of the condos in some of the more well known developments that will be auctioned:

• Cite on the Bay – Unit #110 – 3 bedroom/2 bath – 1,475 SF
• Four Ambassadors – Unit #344 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 940 SF
• Loft Downtown – Unit #204 – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 784 SF
• The Club at Brickell Bay – Unit #1823 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,105 SF
• Vue at Brickell – Unit #1215 – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1,116 SF
• Vue at Brickell – Unit #2307 – 1 bedroom/1.5 bath – 814 SF

None of these developments are particularly exceptional but it’ll still be interesting to see at what price they will be auctioned. I think the unit at the Loft Downtown has a good chance to go for around $100,000 or less.

Check out the Hudson & Marshall website for more information about this auction.

By the way, I did noticed that Deutsche Bank is now in possession of a large number of the properties that will be auctioned on Saturday.

Foreclosure Mess Victimizes Renters as Well

A few months ago, I thought about writing this post but I never got around to it. The Wall Street Journal was sitting at my office this afternoon and an article caught my attention: “Mortgage Turmoil Hits Renters As Buildings Go Into Foreclosure”.

The reason why I thought about writing this post a few months ago is because I met someone who faced the very predicament that the Wall Street Journal article discusses. I met a guy who was looking to buy a condo. At the time, he was renting a condo at The Club at Brickell Bay and his lease was going to end within six months. A few weeks after he contacted me, he was notified that the condo was in the foreclosure process. He wasn’t notified, however, as to how much time he had until he needed to vacate. The thought that “today may be the day” entered his mind each day that he rode up the elevator to his apartment.

In the past, I’ve had some clients who offered to pay 12 month’s worth of rent upfront in order to negotiate a better price. I no longer advise this because of the possibility that the landlord will face financial difficulties and go into foreclosure. Renters are required to produce a credit report and background check when becoming a tenant in a condo building. Nowadays, it doesn’t seem so outlandish to me to ask for a credit check from the landlord. I’m not saying that you’ll actually get one but doesn’t it make sense to at least ask for one?

Bayfront Brickell Condo Foreclosure to Sell Below $200 Per Squar Foot?

I’ve been keeping a close eye on a 4 bedroom/4 bath split-level bank-owned condo at Atlantis on Brickell for quite some time. It has 2,628 square feet of interior living space and is located on the third floor. The price has continually been reduced throughout the months that I’ve kept an eye on it, but it now looks appealing. The list price on this unit is $559,900, or $213 per square foot, at the present time.

Below you will see the price changes since it was listed on May 16, 2007:

• 05/16/2007 – $799,900
• 06/13/2007 – $759,900
• 07/16/2007 – $719,900
• 08/03/2007 – $679,900
• 08/28/2007 – $644,900
• 09/25/2007 – $559,900

Unfortunately, the pictures that accompanied the listing are no longer available. I haven’t personally viewed this property yet, but the pictures that were previously available made it apparent that the unit definitely needed some TLC. A few people in my office did visit the unit about six weeks ago and did confirm that the unit does need much work. On the high end, a $170,820, or $65 per square foot, build-out project should make this unit into an A+ residence. A $500,000, or $190 per square foot, offer should seal the deal on this condo given the continual decrease in price every month. I’m sure that Deutsche Bank is growing tired of keeping this property on their books month after month.

A 3/3 with 2,171 square feet of interior space on the same floor at Atlantis on Brickell, which needs some work of its own, is currently listed on the MLS for $750,000, or $345 per square foot. Invest $65 per square foot to fully renovate the unit, with an overall price per square foot of $255, and you should do well.

Four Bank-Owned Condos in Miami & Miami Beach to be Auctioned September 19, 2007

Four condos will be auctioned off Wednesday, September 19, 2007 at approximately 3pm. Three of the four condos are located in Miami while the fourth is located in Miami Beach. All four condos have gone through the foreclosure process and are currently owned by the bank.

1. Meridian Place – 325 Meridian Avenue #6 | Miami Beach, FL 33139

This is actually a townhouse. Of the four units being auctioned, it will probably hold the most interest because of its fantastic location. Some of South Florida’s most expensive condominiums reside in the South of Fifth neighborhood of South Beach. Built in 1994, this 3 bedroom/2 bath townhouse has 1,300 square feet of interior space, as well as two parking spaces (one garage space and one driveway space). County records indicate that the bank is owed $549,000. The opening bid is $100,000.

2. The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Drive #2114 | Miami, FL 33131

Let’s just say that I’m not surprised. I’ll leave it at that. This 1 bedroom/1 bath condo has 818 square feet of interior space. The bank is owed $610,000. I guess they’re in for a rude awakening come September 19th. The opening bid is $100,000.

3. Venetia Condo – 555 NE 15th Street #16-H | Miami, FL 33132

Venetia Condo is located at the entrance of the Venetian Causeway in Miami. The building was built in 1980. The condo up for auction is a 1 bedroom/1 bath with 800 square feet of interior space. It faces south and has views of Biscayne Bay as well as the cities of Miami and Miami Beach. The bank is owed $410,000. The opening bid is $50,000.

4. Blue Lagoon Condominiums – 5091 NW 7 Street #705 | Miami, FL 33126

Of the four condos that will be auctioned on September 19, 2007, I think the 2 bedroom/1 bath at Blue Lagoon Condominium will hold the least amount of interest from the people attending the auction. However, this makes it a great candidate to be acquired at bargain prices. Blue Lagoon Condominium is located near the airport, about 12 minutes from Brickell. It’ll make for a great investment property if it can be obtained for $175,000 or less. The unit has 862 square feet of interior space. The bank is owed $305,000. The opening bid is $50,000.

Contact me for more information regarding this auction featuring the above four condos.

Short-Sales – Short of Spectacular

Everyone has heard that short-sale and foreclosure listings have increased dramatically in the past 12 months. I’ve found that, as of late, two to four new short-sale listings will appear in the MLS for each neighborhood in Miami per week.

I’m a huge fan of foreclosures but not such a big fan of short-sales, as of right now. I think in about six months things may change, however. I’ve found that the big banks just aren’t ready to play ball yet. Maybe they are just too optimistic about the state of the real estate market. Within the past two months I presented two offers on short-sale condos that were about 15 percent under the lowest comparable sold sale in the building. Both were rejected and the banks countered with figures that were very close to what they were owed. In both cases, what they were owed was much more than what had recently sold in those two buildings.

Banks need to realize that lending practices were lousy, at best, in recent years, and that what is owed to them is a pipe dream. Prices have already come down 20-30 percent from the height of the market here in Miami and Miami Beach. Many project that prices will come down even more. Yesterday, someone emailed me that “Your first loss is often your best loss”. I feel that more banks need to think along these lines. The banks ready to play ball now will be much better off than those holding out for greener pastures. As the saying goes, “Greedy pigs get slaughtered”.

From my experience, however, it does seem that the smaller banks do understand the state of the market and are more willing to negotiate terms. Perhaps, it is not their understanding but rather their eagerness to stay afloat. I think in the next six months, as pressure is added by stockholders, big banks will be much more favorable in their attitude towards short-sales.

The Fate of Prices at Vue at Brickell and The Club at Brickell Bay

For months I’ve been writing about the rampant mortgage fraud that has occurred in certain buildings located in Brickell such as Vue at Brickell and The Club at Brickell Bay.

The August Brickell Condo Index revealed that over the last six months Vue at Brickell had closed sales with an average price per square foot of $522.37 while The Club at Brickell Bay sold at an average price per square foot of $723.35. Both averages have been inflated as a result of the mortgage fraud that has occurred in these two buildings. Both figures seem outrageous to me since both are non-waterfront buildings and, by most, would not be considered top buildings in Brickell.

It is inevitable that in upcoming months both figures will come down drastically. Both have a lot of short-sale and foreclosure units that are currently listed. For example, Vue at Brickell currently has 8 condos that are marked as either short-sale or foreclosures. The Club at Brickell Bay currently has only three but I suspect that many more will arise in upcoming months.

One bank-owned property at Vue at Brickell is listed at $325 per square foot while another is listed at $343 per square foot. These represent an almost $200 per square foot reduction compared to what has sold at Vue at Brickell over the last six months. That is a difference of over 35 percent. Keep in mind also that these are the list prices. They will ultimately sell for less. These transactions will bring the averages down to a more realistic figure. Anyone who purchased a condo in Vue at Brickell about a year ago won’t be able to refinance for many, many years. This will lead to more foreclosures which will bring down the average even more.

The best price per square foot currently offered of the foreclosure or short-sale units at The Club at Brickell Bay is $471. That is a difference of $252 per square foot when compared to what has sold in the past six months, or a little over 34 percent. I feel that there is a lot more room for this figure to drop. There are just too many other brand new non-waterfront units that will be coming onto the market in Brickell within the next 12 months that offer much better prices than those offered by some of the existing Brickell condo buildings that were riddled with mortgage fraud.

My prediction is that a year from now Vue at Brickell will have an average price per square foot of around $325 for units sold over the preceding six months while this figure for The Club at Brickell Bay will be around $375. Of course, this is just an average, so some will sell for less while some will sell for more. I don’t think this will be the bottom though for condos at The Club at Brickell Bay. They will likely plateau around $350 per square foot. The latest foreclosure and short-sale listings shed new light as to the fate of prices at Vue at Brickell and The Club at Brickell Bay.

I feel that other non-waterfront condo developments in Brickell are in jeopardy as well. A lot of people are talking about the thousands of new units that will be coming onto the market in Brickell within the next couple of years but many fail to mention that only two, Epic and Icon Brickell, are bayfront. The rest are either riverfront or non-waterfront buildings. The bayfront buildings will have a slight downward adjustment in prices but will fare well overall. Once those two developments are completed there will only be one bayfront parcel of land left for development.

Miami-Dade Foreclosure Filings Since 2002

A friend of mine passed along the following statistics that were disclosed by Miami-Dade County. I found the statistics to be quite compelling and felt that my readers might find these numbers to be of interest as well. It is worthy to note that these numbers indicate that we are on pace to surpass the highs in foreclosure filings in 2002. That isn’t a bit surprising given the state of the real estate market.

These numbers only represent a mid-half report for 2007. As a sizable amount of adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to reset in the following three months, I’m sure that we’ll surpass previous year foreclosure filings. Foreclosures usually take about 6 months, so I’m expecting that foreclosure filings will peak in 2008.