Brickell Key Condo Index – June 2008

July 4, 2008

The following data was collected on June 27, 2008.  It’s been quite some time since my last Brickell Key Condo Index.  In fact, the last was published in January 2008, or 5 months ago.  What’s interesting is that it has been one year since I started the Brickell Key Condo Index, so in this update we’ll be able to see how prices have fared over the past 12 months.

As many of you might have guessed, the average price per square foot of Brickell Key condos listed in the MLS has continued to go down since the January 2008 update. In fact, average list prices have gone down across the board throughout the 10 Brickell Key condo buildings represented in this index.  I’ll show you the percentage decreases in each building towards the bottom of this post.  In January 2008, the average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell Key was $486.07. The average now stands at $450.49. That’s about a 7.3% drop in list prices in 5 months. More interesting is the drop since June 2007.  At that time, the average price of condos listed in Brickell Key was at $519.97.  That means list prices in Brickell Key have come down a little over a 13% in 12 months.

Average price per square foot of Brickell Key condos currently listed on the MLS:

• Brickell Key I – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $353.45
• Brickell Key II – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $422.52
• Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $572.35
• Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $429.47
• Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $402.06
• Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $420.22
• One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $431.74
• St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $458.38
• Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $508.11
• Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $506.64

The average price per square foot of condos that have sold within the past five months has gone down as well. This average dropped to $367.19 per square foot from the $416.92 that we saw in January 2008.  This average stood at $445.59 in June 2007. That’s a 11.9% drop within 5 months and a 17.6% drop within 12 months.  The average price per square foot for closed units at St. Louis was not included in this month’s index, however, because there haven’t been any closed sales within the past 6 months.  That’s why you’ll see the absence of a bar for St. Louis in the graph below.  The percentage drop may have been smaller had there been closings at St. Louis but nobody knows for sure since we don’t know where the market clearing value for these condos lies.

The average price per square foot of condos sold within the past six months:

• Brickell Key One – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $321.16
• Brickell Key Two – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $299.76
• Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $408.33
• Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $360.31
• Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $336.01
• Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $265.79
• One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $392.33
• St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | N/A
• Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $465.02
• Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $455.98

The chart below reveals additional statistics pertaining to the 10 aforementioned condo buildings in Brickell Key:

The first column to the right of each condo development is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. As you can see, there is, in some cases, very large discrepancies in the average list price versus the average sales price for condos that have closed within the past six months.  Notice the 36.75% difference in these two averages for Isola and about 29% differences for Brickell Key II and Carbonell.  Wow!  I guess list prices in these buildings still have a ways to go to catch up to price level where there’s actual demand to buy.

The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. If you compare this month’s chart to the one published in January 2008, you’ll notice that the majority of the Brickell Key condo buildings have had a slight increase in the number of available listings.  The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. As I’ve stated before, I find this to be a very healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. Proceed with caution if you’re buying in a condo building where the available listings represents over 20 percent of the total number of units. Condo developments with active listings representing less than 10 percent of the overall condos are considered very safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.

The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past six months in the MLS. All of the buildings have had at least 3 closed sales within the past six months except St. Louis, which laid a fat goose egg.  Two Tequesta Point experienced the most closings in that time frame with 9.

The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from January 2008 and this month, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which have had a drop in their average list price.  As you can see, each of the 10 buildings in Brickell Key, represented in this index, have experienced a drop in their average list prices within the past five months.

The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from January 2008 and this month, expressed as a percentage. Only Two Tequesta Point and Three Tequesta Point have had increases in their average price per square foot for units sold within the past six months.  With 9 and 6 closed sales, respectively, within the past six months, perhaps these two buildings have established a floor?  I guess time will tell.

It’ll be interesting to see where prices for Brickell Key condos will reside in another 12 months.  My take is that about 4 or 5 of these condo buildings are close to reaching their bottoms while the other half still needs at least another 4-6 months to reach that point.