Miami Condo Index – Brickell – November 2008

November 22, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga

Brickell skyline

It’s been three months since I last released the Brickell Condo Index.  The last update for Brickell condos was published in August 2008.   The data used to create the statistics below was collected on November 18, 2008 from the MLS.  You may want to also compare the statistics below to those published a year ago in November 2007. It really helps to put into perspective how inflated prices were a year ago in some of the condo developments in Brickell.

The Brickell Condo Index now stands at an average price of $429.52 per square foot.  This represents a 2.28 percent drop in the average asking prices of the 18 condo developments that comprise the Brickell Condo Index over the past three months.

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos currently listed on the MLS:

Brickell Miami condo skyline

The average price of Brickell condos sold over the past six months has dropped 7.13 percent to $291.59 per square foot from August’s average of $313.97.  As with the last update, the average would normally be higher had a sale occurred in the MLS within the past six months at Four Seasons Residences, which sells at the highest price per square foot of the 18 condo developments comprising the Brickell Condo Index.

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:

  • Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $250.71
  • Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $264.63
  • Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $364.86
  • Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $238.88
  • Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | N/A
  • Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.83
  • Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $385.81
  • Latitude on the River – 185 SW 7 St | 33130 | N/A
  • Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $228.00
  • One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $296.13
  • Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $661.70
  • Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $298.68
  • Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $200.00
  • The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $201.44
  • The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $289.18
  • The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $260.14
  • Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $249.88
  • Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $158.55

Below you will find some additional statistics:

Brickell Condo Index statistics

The first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. An “N/A” is found next to Four Seasons Residences and Latitude on the River since this percentage could not be computed as each building failed to have a closed sale within the past six months through the MLS.  A high percentage indicates that there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price for condos currently on the market and what has actually sold within the past six months.

The second column is the number of active listings in each condo development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. To me, this is one indication of a sound condo development. Atlantis, Bristol Tower, Four Seasons Residences, Imperial at Brickell, The Palace and Villa Regina are the condo buildings highlighted in green.  The ones highlighted in red reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. There’s definitely underlying risk in buying in these condo developments and I’d only advise buying in one of these if the price justifies the risk. This month, Solaris at Brickell is the only condo developments highlighted in red.  This is usually a good indication that prices will fall further in future months. The condo developments with active listings less than 10 percent are considered safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.

The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past six months. There are a total of 94 total pending sales in the 18 condo buildings represented in the Brickell Condo Index. In August, there were a total of 79 pending sales at the time. Once again, The Club at Brickell Bay, Vue at Brickell and Jade each have pending sales in the double digits. The same goes for closed sales within the past six months in each of these condo developments.  Skyline on Brickell also hit the double digit mark with a totla of 13 closed sales in the MLS within the past six months.  In August, there were a total of 123 closed sales within the past six months.  This figure has gone up almost 32 percent since the August update.  The 18 Brickell condo developments had a total of 164 closed sales within the past six months.The vast majority of these closings occurred in just a handful of the condo developments, however.  8 of the condo developments had three or less closings within the past six months.

The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and August’s, expressed as a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. Emerald at Brickell saw asking prices drop a little over 10.5 percent while Solaris at Brickell shed about 9.8 percent from its average asking price in August. An increase in average asking prices occurred in 8 of the condo developments in the Brickell Condo Index.

The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and August’s, expressed as a percentage. Vue at Brickell saw the largest drop with a 15.94 percent decline. Jade, Neo Vertika, The Club at Brickell Bay and Villa Regina also had double digits drops.  It should be noted that Villa Regina only had one closed sale within the past six months to calculate its new average. Atlantis, Santa Maria, Skyline on Brickell and The Palace each experienced an increase in their average sales prices for the previous six months.

Brickell Miami condo skyline

Vue at Brickell is very, very close to hitting the $150 average per square foot mark for closed sales over the previous six months. In August, the condos available on the market at Vue at Brickell represented about 28 percent of the overall units in the building.  This figure now resides at around 17 percent.  It will be interesting to see how much lower the average price per square foot of condos sold at Vue at Brickell will go if inventory levels continue to improve.  As I mentioned earlier, the 10-15 percent range is normal even in a healthy market.  Perhaps some sort of stability is right around the corner for Vue at Brickell.  The same can be said for Jade and The Club at Brickell which have also continued to show progress in reaching normal inventory levels.

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199 Comments on "Miami Condo Index – Brickell – November 2008"


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Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago

There appears to be a very substantial disconnect between asking price and actual sales price…. AJ should note that since he seems to be hung up on asking prices, or perhaps Suzanne researched this for him?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw

Anonymous
SunnyIsles
7 years 10 months ago
Hey RT, Suzanne has a way with wives… convincing them to buy homes. So I’m now into sunny isles due to the low crime rate. Does anyone use collins to drive south to work in the mid-miami beach area? Is there traffic at 8 am and going north at 4-5 pm??? If so, is it severe? I’m renting and one thing I noticed about some of the sunny isles units, is that they have been on the market for 4-8 months with no bids. When I make an offer I usually subtract the amount that they have lost by not… Read more »
Anonymous
NJHandyGirl
7 years 10 months ago

Or 30 girls and 70 guys 😉

Anonymous
fred
7 years 10 months ago

…where 60 of the guys are gay….

Anonymous
gables
7 years 10 months ago
Wow, only 162 units closed in the past 6 months in Brickell. Obviously that does not include units closed in a new building. But if you have nearly 6000 units on the market, and only move 160 in six months, things are ugly. Especially when many of those units were purchased as investments to flip, and were never intended to be lived in or rented by the original owner. The average list price is still absurd. The average sale price is still higher than i imagined, probably a ramification of so few units moving on the market getting skewed by… Read more »
Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 10 months ago

sunny isles
collins, starting at about 165th st, is a pain in the morning down to bal harbour. clears up from there. in the evening, it’s not as bad.

Anonymous

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Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago

“Its like being at a party with 70 girls and 30 guys….”

And, your gay.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago
SunnyIsles – I got almost 25% off the asking rental price, but I was going to do a full year…..I think the owner thought that they’d only be able to rent it in short term stretches…. Anyway, I am a perfect tenant and I take care of everything without the landlord needing to be bothered at all. The condo manager has told me more than once that the owner is lucky to have me as a tenant….I think I pay a fair price but will offer a lower amount on renewal basically just removing the commission….the owner will net the… Read more »
Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago

RT,
How can that be??!!!

I mean, look what AJ posted in the last thread:

“I am not offering my tenants 1 penny discount when their leases come up for renewal in July and Sept next year. In fact I will decide by April if I should raise the rent. The most I am willing to give is to keep the rent the same. If they want to leave, I will show them the door.”

Anonymous
fairkim
7 years 10 months ago
SI: I live south of Surfside in MB and work in Brickell. It takes me 25 minutes Door to Door in the mornings, 25-30 at night, using the 61st, Alton, 112 route. Tack on at least another 10-15 minutes for SIB b/c even with 826 and 922 routes available, the 61st option is still the fastest to I-95. There are a ton of “non-smart” lights on Collins in that area and to the south that are not synch’d or coordinated with sensors (i.e., they will turn red without any cross traffic). I think there are great deals to be had… Read more »
Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago
Muir – AJ will show his tenants the door and the tenants will show him what an empty place looks like feels like month after month after month…. When you have lousy cards and you bluff, you have to live with your bluff if the other side calls you on it. In this market, it is best to be reasonable and helpful to tenants with a proven track record….a nightmare tenant could very well put you under. Somehow I think AJ is all show on this and would capitulate if push came to shove esp. as a landlord that already… Read more »
Anonymous
Visionary
7 years 10 months ago

Renter Tom,

What is your profession ?
Are you a retired highschool teacher ? It seems you cannot refrain from teaching.

Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago
In this market, you are always going to see asking prices way above selling prices. When people ask why don’t sellers get realistic in their asking prices, you have to understand the financial situation of a lot of would-be flippers that own these units. ie. Flipper 1 has $20,000 in assets. He has a loan for $400,000 on a condo that he might be able to sell for $300,000 and that he feels is going lower. He can’t contemplate offering or selling at $300K unless he has the extra $100K to give to the bank. So he lists it at… Read more »
Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago

Visionary – Too funny….nope. But there is a lot of ignorance out there so a lot of teaching needs to go on now…the ignorance led to this mess. If they would just learn. Class at 8:00 a.m.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago

By the way, I would be qualified to teach at the graduate level in several areas….and of course 1st grade too since only 1st graders and graduate students are really eager to learn….

Anonymous
jamie
7 years 10 months ago

Muir #10: AJ is out of his mind. I’ve been there too, so have sympathy for the “arse” hole. (Are you British, AJ, or is that an affectation?)

I thought because my for-rent condo fetched $1650/mo in 2007, that $1,550/mo was an insult. Result: empty condo for four months, eventually rented to not-my-dream-tenant (bounced a check) for $1500.

Do the math.

Anonymous
jamie
7 years 10 months ago
Seriously. I rent in a nice, recent building south of Fifth on South Beach. The ads on, say, apartment.com or realtor.com suggest that the apartment I’m renting is asking an average $1900/mo. Then I go to Craigslist and there are three of the same units asking (via brokers, pity the landlord) $1699. Moving is not a hassle, especially if you are moving to another vacant unit in the building and are already condo-approved. The maintenance staff will gladly take my pictures off the wall and move my stuff for $15/hour cash. They’ll even re-hang the pictures while they are at… Read more »
Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago
jamie said: “A vacant apartment is a disaster.” – I would add, and a bad tenant can be financial Armageddon in this market. Imagine having to try and evict a non-paying deadbeat that trashes the place? Not only are you out the rent $$$, but the legal costs, delays, and repairs are costs you will never recoop. I know people who made bad residential rental choices, they were in shock at what happened…too trusting and hard to be a landlord from a distance. A lot of these new floplords will learn a very hard leason as this thing continues. Take… Read more »
Anonymous
jamie
7 years 10 months ago

Lucas, I really like your statistics (and am so glad you incorporated my suggestions). However, all your stats are pulled from the MLS. I believe they do not include apartments sold w/o a broker, foreclosures, and so on.

Since those sales are the real test of the market, don’t you think you should haircut 10% off the average price in your data? Or at least advise folks that your statistics skew to the over-priced as a result of omitting FSBO deals or foreclosures?

Anonymous
jamie
7 years 10 months ago

@RenterTom comment 19
100% agree. My tenant bounced a check on me. The $60 charge for that did not begin to cover the damage she could have done. I have individual health insurance with BC and if you miss a single payment they call you and cancel the contract. The last time that happened, my premium went up $100 a month – forever – to be reinlisted.

Tom, you have just given me a headache. No offense. Good blog, always interesting, but I feel like a steerage passenger on the Titanic at the moment.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago
jamie – There might not be any life boats on this ship, but if you were prepared, had your life jacket on hand, knew how to swim etc. you’re much better off to pull through. This market is one that exposes all flaws….it is as if some turned on the lights at 2:00 a.m. at a dim singles bar and everyone became sober…. it is ugly. Or what WB said that when the tide goes out you see who isn’t wearing a swimsuit. Well the tide is more than out….there is a global credit draught and those that were over… Read more »
Anonymous
Visionary
7 years 10 months ago

Renter Tom,

I am going to enroll with you for postgraduation ( I already have a master degree).
What is the tuition fee ? Harvard level ?

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago

Oh and the durable goods numbers will be out soon. If they are anything like auto sales, or even half as bad, scare talk of a recession will come back into the news….don’t fall for it, it is just a scare tactic to push through a socialist agenda. Now if retail sales for 4Q 2008 are off by more than 25%, then we can start talking depression…. Maybe this will really just end as the Great Recession….or my preferred Refi Madness.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago

Visionary – I got one of those things too plus another one…. Anyway, there is no charge as long as you pass on the help to others…

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago

#24 I meant “scare talk of a depression”

Anonymous
gables
7 years 10 months ago
there are alot of amateur landlords entering the business lately. they really have no idea what is going to hit them. renting out an underwater property is truly a last resort effort-and they will find this out quickly. you no longer have a choice of tenants, so you take who will sign a lease and check today. problem is many of these folks are also in financial trouble, and will become a disaster for the landlord financially. the latest scam i am seeing involves landlords who keep security deposits claiming damage when none existed. hard to overcome this challenge. anybody… Read more »
Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago
jamie /Nov 23, 2008 at 3:23 pm Vote: “Seriously. I rent in a nice, recent building south of Fifth on South Beach. The ads on, say, apartment.com or realtor.com suggest that the apartment I’m renting is asking an average $1900/mo. Then I go to Craigslist and there are three of the same units asking (via brokers, pity the landlord) $1699. Moving is not a hassle, especially if you are moving to another vacant unit in the building and are already condo-approved. The maintenance staff will gladly take my pictures off the wall and move my stuff for $15/hour cash. They’ll… Read more »
Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago
Gables, 1. I plan to use my security deposit as my last month’s rent. My next to last month, I will be my “last months’ rent.” However, mid way through my next to “last months’ rent” (which I will be paying with “last month’s rent) I will ask the landlord to inspect for damages (which, of course, I would fix if there were any.) 2. On “i am also seeing more college students and other youngsters who are now rooming together in a luxury building which was never intended for that lifestyle. these buildings will become frat houses in the… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
7 years 10 months ago

2 good books on the market you guys should consider, enjoyed them both.

Ascent of money by Niall Ferguson
Hot Flat and Crowded by Thomas Friedman

Anonymous
Better Days
7 years 10 months ago

Cut all of those numbers in half and then you’ll have something resembling a bottom.

Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago

Better Days /Nov 23, 2008 at 9:28 pm Vote:
“Cut all of those numbers in half and then you’ll have something resembling a bottom.”

Only half?

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago

I was examining some of the property records this evening in some of the newer condo buildings on the beach. I am always surprised to find a fair number owned in LLC or Inc. names. Seems like those are the ones that go into foreclosure too. More to some I am sure. Moreover, assessed values for 2008 are significantly below what people actually paid just two years ago.

Anonymous
jamie
7 years 10 months ago

@Aj (#30) I recommend The Snowball, the authorized bio of Warren Buffet.

I also recommend that you look up the buildings you have invested in on Craigslist.

I’m simply astounded that you have any idea of raising your rents. You are either an idiot or have idiot tenants.

Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago
Two observations: 1. There are properties where you see that prices did not change for decades. This is worth repeating, certain condos/houses you see the same prices paid for in the early 80s is the same as that paid in the mid 90s. 2. Up until about 1997, you could actually get a decent return on rental investments. – I bring this up because a broker just called me on a condo that was supposed to close today in Palm Beach and the buyer is walking away. Older building with HOAs of $800/month, gated community etc. Original asking price in… Read more »
Anonymous
Kelly Thomas
7 years 10 months ago

That would have been interesting Muir because of the really low price!! The HOA rates are high though I suppose it is because it is gated.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago
Muir – You’ll be able to pick some of these up for the price of a luxury car, er, what was the price of a luxury car. I have seen similar and heard of stories…..condo hotels and apartment to condo conversions seem to get hammered. I guess why not take a $35K-$50K apartment unit, spend $20K to upgrade it and sell for $200K? Well, now those people are holding $65K apartments (if that). The secret here is to take something worth $100, put a price on it of $200 then sell off 100 pieces at $2 to make it palatable… Read more »
Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago

This was not a conversion.
Established high-rise (25 floors) gated community of similar buildings plus golf course.
No HOA issues of many units in foreclosure.
It’s actually a nice planned community of high-rises and some low rises with lots of green areas.

My point was that it was returning to its Historical price.
Although I did not write why I passed, it should be obvious.
What I imply is that Miami will follow.

Anonymous
Kelly Thomas
7 years 10 months ago

Thanks for the insights Muir

Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 10 months ago

AJ
in these times…everyone should read (or re-read) mr. benjamin graham’s intelligent investor. it’s lessons are particularly relevant in these difficult days whether investing in real estate or securities.

as for thoma friedman, he’s a hack, although a popular one at that.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago
Muir – Mine was just a general comment, not implying that was a conversion. I think I have been too optimistic. Things are going to get ugly. I keep hearing that the govt will fix things, etc. from people. My answer is what can the govt really do??? Price fixing? That never works in the long run…or mid run etc. People don’t realize that the govt can’t waive a wand and make things better or that they govt is just being mean by not bailing people out of bad mortgages….unreal. I am now actually thinking a dollar collapse is within… Read more »
Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 10 months ago

RT
don’t think you’ll see a dollar collapse (i’m assuming you’re referring to the dollar v. world currencies). whatever the underlying reasons for such a collapse would also then be relevant to the dollar’s competitors. everything would go in the crapper and the dollar will be no uglier than its other currency brethren.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago

jcrimes….not compared to other currencies, just worth less (or worthless). That is bad enough.

Anonymous
AJ
7 years 10 months ago
jamie, just started seeing your name on this list a couple of days ago. You must be a new guy (or girl?) or an old hag who just changed the name. I am still watching if you fall in the same category as the “arse” hole Mark etc, with your propensity to insult people and hurl abuses at them. If you are someone new, let me tell you, things don’t work like that on this blog. Lucas may not censor you, but you will get marginalized if you attack people personally and call them names. I have all the answers… Read more »
Anonymous
Raffi
7 years 10 months ago

looks like people are coming around to my comments on the other post about our dollar inflating like crazy in the next 2 years.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 10 months ago
AJ – Being terse with newbie isn’t going to increase the value of your real estate, sorry to inform you. I hope though that you get one or more sold since that would probably be best since you got way too real estate heavy as part of your portfolio. With that said, I looked at the photos, and quite frankly, I am shocked at the decor….old 80’s throwback stuff (or was that a 1970’s bubble screen TV?) for al yur high falootin’ ways and talk, I don’t think they’d even sell that decor in Wal-Mart in the clearance aisles….maybe Big… Read more »
Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago

Raffi,
I guess you never clicked my name. 😉
Tom,
Got it. Thought it was interesting story this morning.
Kelly,
Welcome

Anonymous
7 years 10 months ago

AJ,
The problem is that you lose all credibility when you post something like this:
“I am not offering my tenants 1 penny discount when their leases come up for renewal in July and Sept next year. In fact I will decide by April if I should raise the rent. The most I am willing to give is to keep the rent the same. If they want to leave, I will show them the door.”
ALL credibility.

Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 10 months ago

enough with the AJ bashing. now that i know AJ’s career choice…i’m envious (seriously). AJ – any chance i can convince you to let me have the booth for a night in exchange for my office?

Anonymous
Raffi
7 years 10 months ago

Muir, actually I had but I never read through the 21 pages of pdf, sorry. I guess we agree then. By the way did you write that?

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