Miami Condo Index – Brickell – August 2008
August 22, 2008
by: Lucas Lechuga
It has been four months since the last installment of the Miami Condo Index for Brickell. The last update for Brickell condos was provided in April 2008. The data below was collected on August 18, 2008 from the MLS. While crunching the numbers earlier today, it quickly became apparent that prices have continued to fall within the past four months and, in some cases, prices have fallen hard.
The Brickell Condo Index now stands at an average price per square foot of $441.84. This represents a 7.71 percent drop in the average asking prices of the 18 condo developments that comprise the Brickell Condo Index over the past four months, or an annualized loss of 23.13 percent. You’ll see in the graph towards the bottom of the post that about four condo developments have had significant reductions in their average asking prices within the past four months.
Average price per square foot of Brickell condos currently listed on the MLS:
The average price of Brickell condos sold over the past six months has dropped 23.49 percent to $313.97 per square foot from April’s average of $410.38. However, much of this drop is attributed to the fact that Four Seasons Residences, which sells at the highest price per square foot of the 18 condo developments comprising the Brickell Condo Index, has not had one closed sale in the MLS within the past six months and therefore was not included in this month’s average. The average would have dropped around 14.37 percent had Four Seasons Residences been included using its April average. That would still have represented an annualized drop in the average sales prices of about 43 percent!!!
Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:
- Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $241.89
- Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | N/A
- Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $379.26
- Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $240.51
- Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | N/A
- Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.83
- Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $447.72
- Latitude on the River – 185 SW 7 St | 33130 | $323.74
- Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $264.58
- One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $316.15
- Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $625.05
- Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $296.45
- Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | N/A
- The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $224.18
- The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $311.29
- The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $240.85
- Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $292.44
- Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $188.62
Below you will find some additional statistics:
As in the past, the first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. An “N/A” is found next to Brickell on the River, Four Seasons Residences and Solaris at Brickell since this percentage could not be computed as each building failed to have a closed sale within the past six months through the MLS, and thus did not have an average price per square foot for condos sold. A high percentage indicates that there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price for condos currently on the market and what has actually sold within the past six months.
The second column is the number of active listings in each condo development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. To me, this is one indication of a sound condo development. Bristol Tower, Four Seasons Residences, Imperial at Brickell, Santa Maria, The Palace and Villa Regina are the condo buildings highlighted in green. All, with the exception of Four Seasons Residences, were built prior to 2000 and none were targets for wild speculation during the last real estate boom. The ones highlighted in red reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. There’s definitely underlying risk in buying in these condo developments and I’d only advise buying in one of these if the price justifies the risk. Jade, Solaris at Brickell and Vue at Brickell are the condo developments highlighted in red. Each was built in 2004 or after and victimized by speculation and rampant mortgage fraud. Prices in each have fallen like a ton of bricks within the past year. The condo developments with active listings less than 10 percent are considered safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past six months. There are a total of 79 total pending sales in the 18 condo buildings represented in the Brickell Condo Index. In April, there were a total of 58 pending sales at the time. The Club at Brickell Bay, Vue at Brickell and Jade each have pending sales in the double digits. The same goes for closed sales within the past six months in each of these condo developments. In April, there were a total of 64 closed sales within the past six months. This figure has almost doubled since April with a total of 123 closed sales within the past six months. With 25 closed sales within the past six months and 25 pending sales in the pipeline at The Club at Brickell, I question myself whether some sort of stability is finally being reached. Again, the 25 closed sales had an average price of around $224 per square foot. If the answer to my questions is no, then where will the dust finally settle? Of the three condo developments, The Club at Brickell Bay was the only one which has had a reduction in its active listings since April. That, to me, is progress. From November 2007 until April 2008, average sales prices at The Club at Brickell Bay fell about 46 percent. Now since April, we have seen another large drop of about 39 percent in its average sales price. By year’s end, can prices at The Club at Brickell Bay hit the $150 per square foot mark that many of the commentors on this blog have mentioned? A 30 percent drop in sales prices will bring us very, very close to that oft-mentioned number. A better question is, will the pundits of this blog revise their guidance downward if that figure does become an eventuality in a few condo developments in Brickell?
The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and April’s, expressed as a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. Emerald at Brickell saw asking prices drop a little over 23 percent, Vue at Brickell slightly under 23 percent, Solaris at Brickell around 20 percent, The Club at Brickell Bay about 17.5 percent, Neo Vertika 11.4 percent and Jade 11.25 percent. Only Santa Maria and The Palace experienced average list prices actually rise.
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and April’s, expressed as a percentage. Emerald at Brickell saw the largest drop with a 41.21 percent decline, although only one closed sale was found in the MLS within the past six months to calculate its new average. It has a difference of around 46 percent in its average sales and asking prices. This is the largest pricing discrepancy amongst the 18 condo developments represented in the Brickell Condo Index. This just shows me that asking prices at Emerald at Brickell still have a ways to come down before reaching its market clearing value. The Club at Brickell Bay had its average sales price drop around 39 percent, Skyline on Brickell around 25.5 percent, The Palace about 25 percent and Villa Regina around 25 percent. Only Latitude on the River and Santa Maria experienced an uptick in average sales prices since the last Brickell Condo Index update.
This the first month where we saw average sales prices for a Brickell condo building fall below $200 per square foot. Vue at Brickell is now sitting on an average sales price of around $189 per square foot, calculated from the 17 closed sales in the MLS that it has had within the past six months. A look at the listings currently available at Vue at Brickell indicates that prices will continue to fall, as over 30 listings have an asking price below the $189 per square foot average. In fact, four listings are currently asking less than $150 per square foot. It goes without saying that Vue at Brickell will likely hit the $150 average sales mark before any of the other condo developments in the Brickell Condo Index.
Another insight I made while pondering the figures for this month’s Brickell Condo Index is that Santa Maria is alive and kicking. It looks healthy despite the slow down in the real estate market. Its average listing and sales prices have both gone up within the past four months. It has also had 8 closed sales within the past six months. That may not seem like a lot but, with only 174 total condos, Santa Maria is not a huge mega-building with 500-plus units like we often see nowadays. It also has the most realistic asking prices. The discrepancy in asking and sales prices is 15.81 percent, the lowest amongst the 18 condo developments. Couple all that with the fact that the currently available listings at Santa Maria only represent around 8 percent of its possible inventory and I’m saying that it’s good to see that there’s still one stand-up condo development amongst the 18.
Hi Lucas, is there a website one can use to find how many ‘pending sales’ there are in a specific building, how do you get that number?
Dad gummit! Prices are fallin’? But Lucas, you promised me that prices wouldn’t go below $400/sq foot just a few weeks ago!!! Dammit boy!
Cletus,
Why do you use such a coarse language ?
Where did you grow up ?
Whith this behaviour, you only disqualify yourself !
He’s trying (unsuccessfully) to be funny. Different alias, same bozo.
how did the Club, with 1/8 of total inventory, account for 1/3 of total sales? this doesn’t make sense to me. (if I could think of anything redeeming about this building, I might understand, but….) were those 25 part of a bulk sale?
Cynical,
This is your reason: $224.18 (lowest price/sf)
They are ahead of the market in dropping prices and anyone who drops first gets the sales. They will all eventually follow to around that $225 level and by then Club will be at $150/sf and still make up most of the sales. And so on and so forth.
Great info Lucas… This is why this blog is so great. Difficult to argue HARD data with great analysis.
I know I’ve said this a lot, but it might be great if you could just add a small column that calls out the number of units listed on MLS so we get an idea of how much is out in the market.
I definitely see prices in Brickell averaging at under $250/sf in the next year.
Thanks
I really think there should have been a column that broke down those condos with ping pong and air hockey tables and those without such luxurious amenities. Those without are really skewing the numbers on the downside… 🙂
Hey Renter Tom, do you think that some of these high end amenities (like valet and conceirge) will be eliminated in a lot of these units to reduce the HOA? Because $700 per month HOA is ridiculous. Even if I can afford it, I would rather park my car myself and save the money. What do you think?
This may be a better place to post this question:
What do you think about areas like exclusive Brickell Key and Aqua Island? Any thoughts on if values will hold on this type of private gated island communities?
Also, did the 1/1 at Jade listed at 289K sell? What did it go for finally?
Lucas, where in here can I find average sales price for all the closings in the past few months for the new stuff like Plaza-Quantum-Marina Blue-1800? Thanks in advance.
Mark – I agree. The services for silly things is a bit much and when you add them up just not worth it….would rather spend the money on cleaning lady inside my place instead. Valet parking is a pain….tipping someone to pick up your car after waiting for it is a joke (and already paying for it in the dues too)….felt like I have to go ask for permission to use my car! One problem is some of the buildings have tandem parking or other similar things where cars are blocked in to squeeze more cars in. Those spaces would generally have to stay valet only unless the person has both. I know in my building the parking is not ideal at all but I am fortunate to be a self-parker……I would dread valet.
In some respects, condos can save money such as when negotiating for insurance for the whole structure should be cheaper than if each owner had to do that themselves for part of the structure (or as comparing to single family). General maintenance should be more convenient and cheaper too. I’d have to review the budgets to see if there is a lot of waste or if the association is doing projects that are wasteful and not needed. It just seems like there must be waste at these dues levels.
Is there a place where you can see the association dues/month for each building?
Such an often overlooked expense that really should be considered in price.
Monthly HOA dues is one reaason I have hesitated to purchase a unit in Miami thus far. Declining market is the main reason of course, but HOA at 700 – 800/month is a deal breaker and not worth it. Maybe some of the amenities could go alacarte…eg, gym membership, etc.
Yeah, I actually would hate to have valet. TINSTAFL (There is no such thing as a free lunch). We’re paying for something I avoid in the real world. Also, this is no joke (my brother worked valet for years) – if you have a high end car you’re screwed. Valet drivers will teach other valet drivers how to use stick on your car and they will grind your gears. They can also use your car for joy rides (a la Ferris Bueler). Everytime my bro would get a Ferarri or something like that they would rag it out in the parking lot doing donuts, 0-60 and then 60-0 in very small stretches. They would dent cars left and right as well. Valet parkers are also big time thieves, although my brother wasnt. Why do you think they have those valet keys that don’t open the glove box?
Mark, I agree about valets. Working in NYC, I have to valet my car all the time. Myself and co-workers have had everything from money, satellite radios to cell phone chargers stolen from our vehicles. I have had damage to my car countless times. Once the valet backed my friends car into a pole and then claimed he dropped it off that way…the car was un-driveable…lol. Valet parking really sucks.
LUCAS, Anyone?
Have you done this index analysis for Downtown buildings? Not sure if you had it in a previous post?
Great analysis. Wish you would do the same for South Beach.
Yeah, Miami2008 I agree. I work out, and I find these gyms to be totally inadequate. NO FREE WEIGHTS, NO BENCH PRESS?! They usually have like 2 treadmills, 2 eliptical machines, bowflex (or similar) device, and a gym matt for doing yoga. I would have to buy a gym membership on top of the condo membership I’m paying….its ridiculous. A la carte won’t work because then the people who are happy with the crappy euqipment would have to pay more and they’d be upset. They want to be subsidized of course. Yet another headache of condo ownership.
Some new buildings with ground retail and limited parking spots are required to have valet. It cannot be eliminated. Amenities cannot just be eliminated because they cost the HOA money. A majority vote would have to approve any elimination of amenities. Unlikely that will happen because most these units are still developer owned and not run by a condo board yet. The developers cannot eliminate things or they will get sued.
I heard that Ten Museum was valet only. Is this still the case? No way would I live in a building where I am forced to hand over the keys to my baby to some valet guy each and every day. I see this as a huge impediment to the sale of units in bulidings with forced valet. I cannot imagine too many people with the type of income required to live in some of these buildings being remotely comfortable with handing over the keys to their hundred thousand dollar cars to some valet guy on a daily basis, probably multiple times a day. Thoughts?
Thoughts?
900 Biscayne, 50 Biscayne and Marina Blue are not forced valet are they?
Sorry to go off topic by the way.
agree on valet parking. I’ve seen at least twice at Plaza cases where someone I suspect (repeat: suspect, cannot prove) was valet were driving a car like a complete jackass. Was told by a guest coming from garage on another occasion that they saw valet parker active very irresponsibly in someone’s car. I’m sure most of them are responsible, but why take a chance? I would NEVER valet park there.
Another thing about condo valet. They can learn your schedule….so watch your mileage people.
Valet kid one: “old man drops off his Maserati every night at 8.”
Valet kid two: “Poor bastard works his ass off every day to pay for his car and home….whatever….”
Valet kid one: “Al isn’t working tonight, but he’s got a date with that hot chick he met Saturday….”
[Al stops by at 8:15]
Al: “Hey guys, gotta car for me? Old man Jones drops his car off after 8 everyday like clockwork….That Maserati would get me laid for sure. Bitch’ll think I’m a baller.”
Valet kid 1: “For sure man…she’ll love this ride. Just don’t drink too much – keep it under 9 or 10 shots tonight” [hands over keys to Maserati]
I live at the Plaza. Valets do drive like a**holes.
Well okay, what if old man jones is going on vacation. That makes it even easier. Better keep a record of your odometer.
Developers like to build those valet only garages because they require far less spaces and size than a normal garage. Just a tactic to trim costs.
And I agree – they suck and I would never live in a valet only building.
I almost bought into Bentley Bay in south beach until I found out it was valet only.
I used to live in a valet only building and it was the worst. My car had has numerous dings after only 1-year of living there. It’s also very annoying to know that it costs you between 2 and 10 bucks a day (depending on how many times you come and go) just to get your car. I know it’s not mandatory to tip them, but I used to work on tips and could never stiff someone making a living off tips. That really adds up over the course of a year. Furthermore the fact that if you forget something in your car, it’s a production to get it (and then the tip again) really is a deal breaker.
Everything else being perfect about a building, I really think I wouldn’t live in a valet only building solely for that reason. It’s that annoying.
what makes this index even more interesting (and by ‘interesting,’ I do in mean, “frightening”) is that this list of so many buildings with ~20% of their units on the market does not include buildings that are still under construction or only a few months into closings (500 Brickell, Ivy, Wind, Icon, Plaza.) In a rational market, how could such supply be added…
Shelley – I could not agree with you more….valet is not a positive “amenity” just a long term cost and a long term pain.
Ten Museum Park: Features Clinique La Prairie spa. Because of the spa, lack of spots and insurance reasons I was told it was a valet only building.
Please abort the valet issue !!
Visionary agreed. Nobody likes valet parking other than the valets themselves!
On the Brickell topic, how do you think Brickell Key values will hold up in comparison to Brickell, Pace Park, Downtown, Park West, or even the beach??? Being there is a limited supply on the island. I do see prices dropping but is any area a safer bet?
Get real. It is all going to drop drastically. It has dropped already. One can’t see it because there is no action. Better places with better locations and better views will of course be worth more than inferior units. But ACROSS THE BOARD PRICES ARE DOWN DRASTICALLY AND YOU CAN NOT TELL A THING BY WHAT PEOPLE STILL ASK FOR THEIR PROPERTIES IN THE MLS.
I’ve always had a deep fear of valet car parkers.
I think it goes back to my early childhood, when a valet car parker shot my dad.
TNT,
I haven’t done this sort of analysis for Downtown Miami buildings yet because most are rather new and don’t have many closed sales in the MLS. However, you can find a “Recent Sales” link for each building on its sales page. For example, here is the link for the recent sales at Loft Downtown 2: http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/sales-data/?building=Loft-Downtown-II
My developer is working on a way to add pending sales and also a way so you can view closed sales within the past 3 months, 6 months, etc. You’ll also be able to view closed rental prices as well. It’ll take some time but it’ll be great once it’s ready.
Sorry to go off topic, but Unrelated mentioned that there was no Miami World Center…..He was wrong. Go to miamiworldcenter.com….This will show you what is planned behind the Biscayne Wall. May be well in the future, but I hear the developers are meeting every week in the Penthouse of 900 Biscayne….this is not a stalled project. BIG, BIG money behind this.
I’d like to concur with TNT about an index for downtown buildings.
How about splitting things along the lines of the Miami River?
South- Icon Brickell, Jade, etc.
North- Epic, 900 Biscayne etc.
After a North/South maybe we can then work on Big Ten, Pac 10, ACC etc.
dlr,
Did you decide on close / no close for 900? Sounds like you got some intell/done good work on Biscayne wall 411… let’s compare notes …. shoot me a note (I posted my addy for you per request on the Ivy marathon post).
Cheers!
Thank you LUCAS for the reply… yep, hard to do analysis with no data 😉 Your efforts are amazingly helpful for folks like myself that do not live in town. You are truly appreciated for creating this exchange medium!!! the work you do here I hope will be paid back to you tenfold.
Have you ever heard the phrase “no one should try to catch a falling knife?”
Who is buying?
Credit is tight. 20% down is mandatory.
I think that some of these “sales” are wash sales to prop up the values.
The iceman cometh.
Lucas
Thanks for the update. As you addressed I think one of the most salient data points highlighted was pending sales versus # of sales closed within last 6 months. If we can believe “pending” its a spike certainly given its ~65% of closed sales number. Inventory %’s, even in some troubled larger South Beach buildings has ,on the MLS at least, been decreasing this last quarter as well. My only concern is that there is a hidden pipeline of pending shortsales & forclosures that the data doesn’t reflect. I think there are also closings that are not reflected in data the realtors use any more. It may not be a parallel universe yet but we are in a different world . Having said that we have to work with what we have & Miami will probably never be easily deciphered!
dlr said: “Sorry to go off topic, but Unrelated mentioned that there was no Miami World Center…..He was wrong. Go to miamiworldcenter.com….This will show you what is planned behind the Biscayne Wall. May be well in the future, but I hear the developers are meeting every week in the Penthouse of 900 Biscayne….this is not a stalled project. BIG, BIG money behind this.”
Perhaps you should do yourself a favor and read what it is I posted.l It was an article from the Daily Business and here is the first paragraph and the link. I said there was a glitch in the project. PLEASE READ IT!
•“Leon Cohen, the Miami Beach developer who proposed a 93-story skyscraper in downtown Miami, faces default judgment in New York State Supreme Court over financial fraud allegations related to a former hotel redevelopment project.”
http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/08/25/story5.html?ana=e_ph
Geesh, hostile crowd. Why don’t you do YOURSELF a favor and read Miamiworldcenter.com
I REPEAT, this is NOT the same project that you are referring to in your Bizjournal article
Go to skyscrapercity.com….do your homework.
Look up 2 topics….1. Empire World Towers…this will tell you all you need to know about the developer in your reference article (Cohen)…yes, your article indicates this project may never happen due to Cohen’s shady dealings.
2. Then go to “Billionaire’s Plan for Park West” and it will tell you all about Miami World Center
These developers (Falcone and Roberts) have assembled the MOST amount of land EVER in Miami by one developer. They have established quality ties with Miami City Commision and local leaders and have MEGA money to get it done. Just google them.
By the way LUCAS, why don’t you clear up Unrelated’s confusion. I’m sure you know he’s a bit confused.
To Angel,
I used to think that a valet parking building ONLY was a problem. However you get used to it. All of Williams Island is valet only, and though it is an older development that has some of it’s luster, it is still unique and there are many die hards which will never, never leave. The biggest negative of a valet only building is I imagine increased building costs associated with this expense and insurance.
You also have the risk at 5 bucks a gallon of a valet guy (who makes 3 dollars plus tips) taking your car for a spin. This is why I always reset my trip odometer to zero each time I give me car to valet.
No one is talking about deflation risks. Right now the two largest deflated assets which are losing significant values are homes and autos. The risk is that the prices still keep going down and still no one buys, they just rent or stay put or repair their car.
If fannie mae and fredie mac go bust there will be significant further fall out in real estate. They handle 50 percent of the mortgages out there, and the financing/loans will dry up totally compared to now and more deflation on home values.
“All of Williams Island is valet only, and though it is an older development that has some of it’s luster, it is still unique and there are many die hards which will never, never leave.”
I live in Williams Island and I park my car myself…. im pretty sure all other buildings either have the choice of valet or parking themselves… i hate valet parking its such a pain… not only do you have to tip the guy everytime then there’s that extra couple of minutes you have to wait for your car to come around…
Anyone have a feel for the strength of the HOA at Jade? Are unit owners feeling the effects yet of the defaults? What are your thoughts on upcoming HOA bankruptcies? Also what is the rental policy at Jade? Any restrictions?
There is not only residential condos under construction north of the Miami River in downtown. The Met 2 project is almost half way upwhich includes a 40 story office building on one side with a 4-5 story 4 or 5 star hotel with The brand JW Marriot Beaux Artes or the like on the other side of the office tower. Coming -with established developers who are walking the walk within a year or so Is the MET retail complex with bookstores etc. and restaurants and a 14 theater movie house complex Then a 1000 foot double tower at Biscayne and SE 1st where they are currently in the permitting phase for a 70 story 4-5 star hotelon one side and a 2,000,000. sq ft office tower on the other side. This is even with Cohens land at Se 3rd and Biscayne never gets done. The guy who bought the old Miami Arena in Park West has demolished the old arena with hopes that if Bramans lawsuit prevails that the city-county-Marlins- wil have no other alternative for their new baseball park . If not he may join up with the other large landholder in Park West that dlr mentioned in his n. 44 post. The schedule for the start of construction on the new Miami Art Museum whose architect is the World -Renowned Herzog and De Maroun. Sorry about the spelling- is approximately 6-9 months away. The Performing Arts center is open for Miami City Ballet Symphonies-Opera and Broadway quality shows. Two new huge office projects allready underway across the river south on Brickell. Office workers walking around all day long in their finest dress wingtips and office lady eye candy smartly dressed. The mix of office workers and the crowd moving in the residential at 50 Biscayne and Met One Loft one Loft TWO along with tourists in the Hotel Intercontinental Hyatt- etc. walking between Bayfront Park Bayside Marketplace and the American Airline Arena for concerts and Miami Heat games. Went down last Saturday morning about 9:00 a.m. and under the pavilion near the large water fountain right on the bay there were about 50 people sitting Bhudist -Monk like with complete silence practicing their morning Yoga. The historic Gusman Theatre for smaller concerts and lectures is right there on Flagler Street downtown and The campus of Miam-Dade College is a bout two blocks off of Biscayne where night courses are available numerous lectures- and an anuual Book fair in I think in January that is quite popular. The interesting thing is you can easily walk to each venue or if its raining you are always near the MetroMover that circles this 30 or so blocks. Most buyers in the new residential bldgs can walk to work or Metro Mover it and be home and allready in the gym or pool while their office pals are stuck in 1-2 hour drive homes to your suburban homes. Imagine you can add 3- 4 hours to your day every workday. What would you do with the extra time? Ten to 12 minutes to the airport. Rent a boat for the day over at Bayside Marketplace when you have guests in from out of town. Or take a ten minute taxi ride over to South Beach to avoid the parking hassles if South Beach is your thing. I guess it doesnt hurt that its 75-80 degress F. from October through May. And oh yea- I allmost forgot- you might be able to purchase one of these luxury condos for about $150. per sq foot right on the water with a direct water view on a high floor. Not.
Sorry the Met 2 project should read 40 story 4-5 star hotel with Jw Marriot brand Hotel Beauex Artes or the like
Kramer
May I add a little correction:
The architects are Herzog & de Meuron and the French name is Beaux Arts.
Thanks Visionary
My friends real estate fund is holding 5,000 units downtown. These units will never show up on the MLS. If he were to dump all units on the market at once I guarantee you would see $150 per sq ft overnight. My other friend has no plans to develop his remaining lots downtown. Financing has dried up. He will keep his flashy website running because he already paid for a five year domain name and website fees. My other friend who bought the old Miami Arena has been losing a close to a million dollars a year in miscellaneous fees. All told all my friends who developed anything downtown are hurting. The only ones that are so fond of this area are the few residents who own in this area who frequent this blog and the Realtors who have branded themselves specialist in these new buildings. Valet anyone?
Kramer,
very nicely stated, but one question remains: what distinguishes Met 1 from the 23 other new towers already built? (apart from the 2-3 year head start in construction the other buildings got?) Will the residents be the same “smartly dressed professionals” that are currently knocking down the gates to live in: Club, Vue, One Broadway, Plaza, Ivy, 1200 Brickell, Solaris, the Sale, Jade, 500 Brickell, Icon, NeoVertika, Latitude, Ivy, Mint, Wind, One Miami, all of Brickell Key, I’m sure I’m missing quite a few; most of which happen to be closer to the financial district than Met 1.
and the hour-long commute will follow these people to Brickell. the roads here are no where near addequate to take on this many potential new residents. already the turn towards one Miami after crossing the bridge on Brickell gets insanely backed-up during the day, and this is with most of these buildings barely occupied.
I’m not looking to start a flaming war here, and would be glad to be proven wrong.
does anybody know if one miami is valet or self park?
lucas, any chance you could list buildings that are valet only (or valet dominated?) this may help us evaluate the buildings better.
looks like the avg $/sf is dropping below $300. things are getting a little more affordable.
This is slightly off topic, but related to miami real estate in general. Check out the ranking of various real-estate related sites accuracy:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/08/22/how-accurate-are-listings-on-real-estate-sites/
gables: Just wait another year, I am sure we will be below $200/sq ft on many of these buildings. The real estate credit crunch is just getting started.
I was very surprised to see so many people who were living pay check to pay check. The high gas prices exposed a lot of people who were in the pay check to pay check mode. Many of them drive high end cars and live in nice places, but i guess it was all bought on credit and not sustainable.
One interesting trend i am seeing is that the middle to upper-middle class population eroding very quickly. We will be left with the working poor and the super rich…very few people in the middle.
Brickell vs downtown- The backups on the Brickell bridge is a problem for those going north where downtown can catch 95 using Nw ist street to bypass -plus as noted in the last issue of Miami Today Brickell has some moderate flooding problems when it rains hard- Plus Brickell has no large park like Bayfront Park on the water or The new 28 acre Museum park yet to be developed. Mary brickell Village is nice though and close to Tobacco Road.
Granted there is an inventory problem but as for me I dont mind if prices came down another 10-20% because I have identified this as the area that I want as my residence for all the aforementioned reasons. I have locked in my price and dont really care if i missed the bottom by another 10-20% because i have also locked in a high floor direct east bayview not some half view. It overerlooks the park and the pool area and im willing to pay a premium of 10-20% for that. When the market does bottom there will be a scramble for the better quality buildings with the direct water views. Some people in here are obsessed with catching the bottom but may be missing the big picture. Besides how many of you honestly always buys at the bottom and sells at the top. Lets get real in here. Btw- my purchase pre- construction was done on Feb 1st 2004. Was twice offered resales of about 40-45% which I declined and I ve probably come full circle with prices. I dont care if it drops another 20%. People in here predicting 1998 prices are not real.
Gables: Great Suggestion! Lucas can you add her request? I for one would never buy or live in a valet only building. I think this will be the first question i will be asking when it comes time to pull the trigger.
Kramer,
What building did you buy in ? What line ?
Visionary-send me your e-mail and ill tell u.
Wild bill, I’m your biggest fan. Keep speaking the truth man!!!
Kramer,
What is your e-mail address ?
I dont want it out here- ask lucas for my addy its ok
Im late gotta get out of here
One Miami comes with one assigned parking and the second car has to be valeted. There are no parking spaces for sale and there never will be. If you were given only one space, would you ever sell it? Hell no. They do some kind of shared parking agreement with the Intercontinental next door anyway to meet the parking reqts as it is.
I know this because when I was buying, I looked in that building.
What I think is even more colassal B.S. for the people who bought there is that in the past 6 mos they started charging like 120 bucks a month to park your second car. I’m sure the developer told them that would eventually happen when they were getting ready to purchase. Not.
Yet again, why I will NEVER buy pre-construction. You get lied to and sold the moon and the stars to get you to sign on the dotted line, and then they screw you little by little till you’re thoroughly f***ed. No pun intended.
The only 100% valet building I know of is 10 Museum Park. Most new construction comes with one assigned, one valet standard. I did not come across any new construction that came with 2 assigned parking spaces.
How is the Clinique La Prairie spa at 10 Museum..
Or the Michael Capponi vip lounge?
Surely the buyers promised those years ago are enjoying them by now.
It’s not a question of if, but a question of when some of the downtown/Miami river condos are going to have to go this route. That’s the risk of getting in too early.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/realestate/article778688.ece
la la and bc bring up an underlooked point. Now that none of the Miami condo developments in the pipeline are safe, developers are going to have to keep honest with their promises or be the first ones to go bust by doing a shoddy job.
When you had buildings 100% presold, what was the incentive for a developer to do a good job and make good on all promises? Now there is a great incentive of not going bust.
That is a silver lining for sitting on the sidelines. You will actually get a chance to see, touch and feel the actual units and get an idea of the actual views as opposed to making a decision based on a shiny brochure that conveniently makes it look like the building is on it’s own little beach with no obstructions in any direction and amenities that on paper put the Setai to shame.
That boy interested may be a big fan of wild bill, but I’m a fan of JL. His logic is impeccable. I certainly understand it. Long story short – condos are a buy! Yeehaw!
Rumor has it that the developer of the Solis in Sunny Isles Beach may be out of money. No work seen in four weeks with the building on the 11th floor out of 55. Just the base parking garage portion is up. Rumor also has it that some workers didn’t get a last paycheck and one worker reported going back to the job site to collect his tools. Meanwhile the second and thir Trump Towers in Sunny Isles Beach are still be worked on at a far pace with less than 5% of lights ever seen on in the first Trump Tower (I think most of the time it is just 1%)…the valets look very very bored out front. In four months, I did see a couple actually using the gym in Trump Tower 1 about 3 weeks ago or so….first time I have seen someone there using something.
Meanwhile the Jade Ocean and Jade Beach are moving right along to deliver their much needed 500 residences, like we need another 1/2 Billion to a Billion dollars in Jade Ocean and Jade Beach condos….
Of course, there could be other explanations as to why there has been very little construction progress recently… Perhaps someone familiar with the matter can chime in?
Renter Tom – Speaking of Trump Sunny Isles…is there any word on Trump Hollywood? The construction progress looks about the same to me as it did a few months ago. I’ve only driven by there at night, so don’t know if there’s any construction going on during the day.
My understanding is that Trump licenses his name to these developments so his own investment, if any, is minimal. I don’t know about the Hollywood development.
RE bears,
Seems that most people on this board think Brickell and downtown are overvalued by 25% to 35% and I kind of agree. I am looking to buy a condo in Aventura (I split my time between Ft Laud. and Miami) next year. If the market is so overvalued in a so called “prime” are like Brickell, how overvalued is the condo market in Aventura? Most nice condo projects do for roughly $350/sq ft. What drop should I expect to see over the next year or so? I would love to pick up a 2/2 in a really nice building for under 300k. Thanks
Another bank bites the dust….
The Columbian Bank and Trust Co., a $752 million in assets institution based in Topeka, Kansas, was shutdown Friday afternoon and placed into the receivership control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Michael – I’ve been keeping an eye on Turnberry on the Green in Aventura. The prices are some of the most reasonable in the area and some lines have fantastic views.
JL, get in there and teach these Yankees a thing er two about blindly buyin’ stuff! Buy buy buy! Yeeehaaaw!
Why do ya yankees all “plan” and use “foresight”. I don’ like it one bit! Yall need to be more impulsive. Live a little. Help out your honest local condo developer and buy up these bargain priced condos at $400/sf I say. Make America strong again!
I’m also friends with a New York real estate developer. Everybody thinks he’s into real estate, but he really is just branding his name. He sells his name to developers for a fee. He also has a television show where he makes a large sum of his yearly income. One of his former guests on the show even states how he is a master of branding his name. She’s hot and also trying to market her name. He really isn’t a real estate developer in the true sense. He fools everybody. He makes the majority of his money on marketing deals. Problem is many people buy his and other real estate guru’s bullshit and invested too much in real estate. Do want to hear about my hedge fund friends? They are interesting too.
Y’all please pay no Mind to me… i just try n seem important on the NET!! Im really nottin but a loser seekin’ some laughs! I laugh at my own jokes n no body seems to join me…. im really sad.. Yehaw!!!
LOSER!
Cletus,
You talk like a toothless inbreed.
Michael,
Regarding Aventura, you already can get a 2/2 at Mystic Pointe for under $300,000, in the mid $200’s per square foot. I know people in the complex who love it, great views and amenities.
Go easy on cletus boys, he just loves condos. JL, is also enthusiastic about current condo prices and no one is attacking him. Cletus, I disagree with you… I can give you lots of reasons why being impulsive is a bad thing.
Well all this negative info is good, but what if you love going to Miami but hate hotels, renting, etc…then what? We have have visited Miami Beach countless times in the last 12 years, time to get a place or keep giving hotels $400+++/night??? My home in NY has already tripled in value, even with the current market. Should I purchase, when???
Miami2008, I assure you that you will lose more money buying now than spending money on hotel rooms. Just wait at least one year and then reconsider. This market is in free fall. Also, I wouldn’t be too sure about NY prices, with 200,000 financial workers being laid off, and this recession just getting started, you might be in for a surprise. Unless wages increased x3 then your home price increases are unsustainable and won’t last.
Since you guys didn’t spend enough time on the valet issue…
Anyone else get the feeling that the valet-only or one spot + valet is kind of like the exclusive cable deals in these new buildings? You inherit a building that is tied into a long-term no-bid contract with some no-name company for a service you are not sure you’d buy.
I just have the feeling that if you scratch the surface a bit on this, that valet company or cable company is owned by the developer’s cousin…
Mofo Tom – I think there was some federal regulation or something that voids the exclusive service provider contracts. So much for the monopoly business model….
A new question- from the northeast I keep reading about tropical storm Fay damage in the state of Florida.
Will these damage claims, in Florida, cause additional upward pressure on homeowner insurance rates?
Bill P, according to some commentators, Fay is the best thing to happen to home prices since subprime loans. If you didn’t buy before Fay you are likely priced out of the market by now. Too bad buddy. You and the vast majority of other people (including the median income earners) will never be able to afford a home. Prices just rocketed up. Sorry. Just like you were unable to afford tech stocks in early 2000…this is the same concept. Sorry bro.
Bill P.
Yes. You can count on it.
I lived in a building which a while back ran into trouble with HOA and started charging $3 to valet park cars. Literally overnight it went from valet parking being full much of the time to fewer than 10 cars a day being valet parked. were most of my neighbors living beyond their means to be in that building?? (also noticed a marked decline in the quality of cars parked in that building between when I moved in and moved out three years later.) I know one particular repo man who repossessed 10 cars from One Miami’s parking garage in a six-week period. (though this was a year ago. wonder how busy he is today….)
New inventory that is coming soon around the Icon/Epic area.
Icon Brickell- Starting closing in a few months
Everglades on the Bay- Starting closings in a month
Epic- Closings starting beginning ’09?
Met 1- Closings starting?
Am I misisng any buildings in that area centered around the bridge at the opening of the Miami River. Anybody know when Met 1 will start closings?
La La, Gables,
Just to clarify the $120/month space issue at One Miami: owners now have the option of foregoing their second “free” valet space and leasing a dedicated space for $120/month. If you do not want a dedicated space, you may still use the valet service as you’ve been doing since 2005. The $120/month agreement is subject to change (i.e., if too many people do it, they won’t have a critical mass of valet space to accomodate everyone else who foregos the deal as well as their other contract w/Gabbiano).
Just thought I’d clarify that it’s not compulsory.
Met 1 started closings a few months ago.
Kim,
I don’t think that’s the case for new owners. When I was looking I was told one assigned space and 120 a month for the second car, it was just starting to be implemented then.
Maybe they are honoring that only for original owners then. Personally though, I’ll stick to my older building with 2000 sf under air and 2 parking spaces that I own, and yes, I will pay the special asessments.
A comment on One Miami and the valet.
I have a friend who lives in the 30th floor in a unit facing east. I went to visit him on Saturday night at 11:30PM and when I got there, the ground floor/valet drop off area felt like the parking lot for a SoBe nightclub. There were probably about 30 people just hanging around in their cars with very loud music on their stereos and about 15 people waiting for their cars. The valet guy actually told me that there were no spaces in the garage for me to park and that I would have to find a space outside the property.
Also, walking inside of the building felt like the Flamingo, with the younger crowd ready to party and leaving the building and lots of noise.
Just imagine this… you live in a “high end” condo and are expecting visitors. They come to visit on a Saturday night at 11PM (which should be a non issue) and they can’t park their cars and have to deal with all types of noise/people coming in.
Maybe this is the building for some people, but do you think these people are the ones that pay over $313psf?
This has got to be the worst new building in the area
Agreed. One Miami is A1+++ location but horrible parking garage and building.
I read all about Miami world center. Looks nice. But if this ever comes to fruition, we will lose all the hot downtown clubs like space, nocturnal, discotekka etc 🙁
Fresh off the presses(South Florida Business Journal) – MIAMI RE GETTING PUMMELED. ”
“Miami continued to get pummeled, with just 395 existing homes sold in July, compared with 509 home sales during the same period last year. The median sale prices also dropped, to $322,700 from $377,400.
Condo sales fared worse. Statewide, 3,375 units sold in July, comparedwith 3,641 in July 2007. The median sales price of condos fell to $168,500 from $194,100, a 13 percent drop.”
What do you guys think about Icon Brickell? Buildling, amneties, Location???
Is anybody here aware of the conditions in Four Ambassador? Why the sale price is so low?
Ray, don’t touch Four Ambassadors with a 10′ barge pole.
for one, it is the only ‘pre-war’ in the area. (In Miami, “pre-war” means, “Pre-Iraq war.”)
secondly, it is a very old, very tired place. I’ve been in one unit there and it was simply awful. the place pre-dates Miami Vice. (the TV show, not the movie.)
Probably,
You failed to mention the high maintenance fees. That’s a big reason why prices seem so cheap there.
IG,
as for Icon Brickell, I think the only decent view one could get is if they have a water/east-facing unit (and on a high-enough floor to see over Brickell Key.) a North-facing unit will be looking into whatever two buildings have gone up directly across the Miami River. (though if the developers of those buildings were kind enough to open the windows and sliding doors of the empty units, you might have a good view through those buildings….) a west-facing unit will be looking into 500 Brickell. (and those people will be pissed, as Icon has destroyed their water views!) South views will be directly into BOA building.
No balconies at Four Ambassadors either…amazing considering our climate. Bad floor plans too.
One Miami’s valet is that messed up any time of day not just 11:30 at night. We waited forever the 2 times we went to see units. That was a HUGE turnoff too. That valet area is a design disaster. I’m done now.
Probably too Cynical said: “a west-facing unit will be looking into 500 Brickell. (and those people will be pissed, as Icon has destroyed their water views!)”
That would apply to anyone who closed on an east-view unit at 500-Brickell. The ICON was “the insult” added to “the injury” of paying a premimum of $50K for that “water view”!
Kramer,
Lucas didn’t respond to my request.
too cynical,
thanks for the info. Has anyone visited the Icon lately? How do you think this building will do?
IG asked: “Has anyone visited the Icon lately? How do you think this building will do?”
Do the math:
1. Add 1,600+ New and EXPENSIVE condos and condoized hotel rooms to the current inventory.
2. Hundreds of units for sale, many $300K – $350K STUDIOS mentioned on here. ($400 – $500 per sq. ft.)
3. Buildings months from beginning of closings ant there are a dozen lawsuits already filed (name: TRG Brickell Point).
To quote the “Family Feud” guy…”The Answer Is………….”
I can almost bet now that you will see a few hundred units in Icon purchased by Perez’ new fund.
I mean really, how many of the 1,600 units will close?
Guess what all this will do to the pricing.
I am waiting with anticipation to see what will happen when all these following projects will start closing:
1. Icon Brickell
2. Epic
3. Infinity
4. Everglades
5. Marquis &
6. Paramount Bay
It is a bit surprising that all the Ultra Luxury buildings are set to open at the same time around 2009 with the exception of 900 Biscayne, which is already opened.
1. Icon Brickell
2. Epic
3. Infinity
4. Everglades
5. Marquis &
6. Paramount Bay
They will all have banner ads hanging from the upper floors offering leasing of units. The Miami underground economy will absorb many units and turn them into daily rentals, drug labs, movie studios, and brothels.
Or hydroponic pot farms like in the mall…
Lucas, thank you for your analysis and hard work. I visit many blogs through the South Florida Daily Blog website and yours is, without a doubt, the most active, interesting and timely. As a Miami native who hung out in the newish Brickell Townhouse in the early 70’s and visited friends and family at almost all of the buildings since then, I believe that the views and proximity to downtown, the gables, the beach, grove and key cannot be beat.
But living in a condo gets under my skin. I have lived and had valet parking in the Grand when it was new, it was a very convienet amenity, never had to wait (had the valet # on autodial and car always waiting). But always having to run into people in the elevators and pool etc gets old. Dont like being 4 inches of wall -board away from my neighbors’ lives and all that. My solution is to live in a house in the Roads to take advantage of that Brickell proximity minus the view. I can see why condo living is attractive to so many, the views from a balcony or livingroom overlooking downtown and /or out to key biscayne are magical. Maybe I will buy one in a year or so to keep in my pocket for the future– thank you and all the posters again for this blog and keeping my interest.
The thing about Icon Brickell is you can almost count that complex as 5 regular condos and Everglades can be counted as 2. I did this calculation once before, but I’ll repeat it here. To get a perspective on Icon Brickell’s 1600 or so residential units, it will total slightly more than the sum of all the condos South of Fifth on the Bay in Miami Beach. ie. when you drive over MacArthur Causeway getting into South Beach, you will see 6 condo towers off to the right (South of Fifth) that pretty much “defined” South Beach condos over the past decade and Icon Brickell by itself will eclipse all 6 Towers combined in # of units.
I think Icon Brickell will compete with these South of Fifth condos more than most people realize since the premier view for both will be the Bay. Icon South Beach’s premier line is west overlooking the Bay while Icon Brickell’s premier line will be east overloking the same Bay.
Murano Portofino 189 units
Murano Grande 270
Icon South Beach 290
Yacht Club at Portofino 361
Portofino Towers 206
SouthPointe Towers 208
1,524 total units
i can tell you that a group of friends of mine hold about twenty contracts at icon (notwithstanding related’s attempts to stamp out multiple purchases by one person/group). they’re in a bind to say the least.
“notwithstanding related’s attempts to stamp out multiple purchases by one person/group”
Let me guess, the attempt made was asking for “Scout’s honor” before checking off “Non-investor” on the contract?
New Jewish Center on Brickell – Good News with all the development and RENTERS slowly moving in, there is a new Jewish center which opened up right on Brickell Avenue at 1101 Brickell Ave 2nd Floor.
A good sign for a bad market
“Would-be home buyers find mortgages are out of reach”
Wow, I had no idea it’s gotten that bad that fast to get a loan. Sounds like 40% down will be a minimum requirement soon across the board if a bank is willing to even do it at all. Perfect timing for this new (over) supply that’s hitting -Post 113-.
This article goes hand in hand with the bank responses detailed in my previous posting.
CNN “Mortgage fraud still soaring
A crackdown on underwriting has failed to halt an explosion of fraudulent home loans.”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/25/real_estate/soaring_mortgage_fraud/?postversion=2008082606
“Florida had the largest volume of mortgage fraud in the first three months of 2008, accounting for about 24% of the national total. ”
And I’m sure Miami was responsible for 50% of that fraud spike in FL. I’ll state the problem in a nutshell. You probably had a decade of mortgage crime that went unpunished here because escalating prices hid the crimes and banks did not get hurt and it was socially acceptable to be in this racket in Miami… as long as everybody was making money, nobody cared about laws or standard practices.
This culture of mortgage fraud has become so entrenched as a source of “legitimate for Miami” income that I actually know second generations of a family that are involved. ie. Father to son. Seriously, who 10 years ago didn’t know RE people waste deep in this stuff and openly so. Only difference is back then, nobody was complaining.
If this is the only business you know and you have been an accepted member of Miami society and social circles for a decade doing this business, would you really quit this… Could you quit this? Or would you just try to get slicker?
From the stories I have heard, Miami was big due to the large foreign population that took advantage of the lending standards (most foreigners couldn’t believe how easy it was to get a mortgage) cashed out through HELOC’s, or “resales” and took the money and left the country.
Banks were stupid.
“In areas like Brickell or the Biscayne corridor, there is no way to get a loan unless a borrower is willing to put 30 or 40 percent down,” said William Zalaquett, a Keyes Co. Realtor who specializes in the area. “Europeans, wealthy Northeasterners and the wealthy locals who have the cash can buy. The average working class here, they are left out.”
anyone know what’s going on with the Cynergi on Miami Ave in Wynwood Arts District? I know some people that bought pre-construction (against my strong urging), and they are in the dark on closings.
rockydog asked:
“anyone know what’s going on with the Cynergi on Miami Ave in Wynwood Arts District?”
BAD NEWS…….YOU WERE 100% CORRECT!
http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/2007/06/12/cynergi-buyer-wants-out/
Requiring 20% down is going to hurt real estate values. Requiring 40% down is going to kill the real estate values. All these buildings have over 20% rentals which will require a higher interest rate. What a slow downward spiral this city is going to have.
Wild Bill,
Don’t be sour dour! Let’s get the party back on track! Forget all of the buildings mentioned. Show some optimism and DEMAND that we have Villa Magna, MET 3, Miami World Center, etc., etc! ROFLMAO!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/50307/Glimmers-of-Hope-for-Housing-But-We're-Still-a-Long-Way-from-Bottom?tickers=fnm,fre,%5EGSPC,xlf,xhb
INTERESTING VIDEO
There is a simple way to stop mortgage fraud: require 20% down payments.
That is exactly what is going to happen. The days of 100% financing are gone for a long, long time. Old-school underwriting standards are coming back in a big way. And that’s the way it should be.
Is anyone trying to get out of the contract with ICON? I have one, and looking for options. Not sure what to do at this point…
“They will all have banner ads hanging from the upper floors offering leasing of units. The Miami underground economy will absorb many units and turn them into daily rentals, drug labs, movie studios, and brothels.
115 Renter Tom // Aug 26, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Or hydroponic pot farms like in the mall…”
I wonder if this makes studio and open floor plan units more sought after.
This market reminds me of that Tom Petty song… No – it isn’t “running down a dream”
Renter Tom, you hit it on the head. banks were either painfully stupid (seriously, where did they come up with the idea of underwriting huge loans to those whose means of repayment were questionable at best) or criminally negligent. unfortunately we will all pay some price for this.
the next condo tower to break ground should be called “Fuct.”
Maybe Lucas could chime in on this one. I thought only a few months ago people were saying you could still do a documented loan 10-20% without too many problems, it’s just the no-doc stuff that went away.
Has the situation really shifted that fast where the doc loans in Brickell are requiring 20-40%? I imagine if this an across the board thing which seems to have happened over the past few months, you would start seeing the effect of it soon in Lucas’s closings charts.
Probably too cynical:
Other names for new condo buildings:
(1) ICAN’T South Beach
(2) Underwater By The Bay
(3) FRAUD
(4) The I’ve Taken A Bath Club
(5) Bentover Bay
(6) Debtors Ranch Living
(7) La Gouged Palace
(8) Dingy Club Portofino
(9) $100 S.F. Club
(10) Unfortunate House
Actually, my good creativity is a bit sapped right now, so I’ll leave it up to others for even more witty names……..
OK, it’s about time we had a humor break 8^)
I say
Courvoisier Courts –> St. Ides Courts
Thumped Towers I, II, and III
Going off topic, but what a state of morons we live in if there are now commercials every five minutes giving detailed instructions on how to fill out ballots at the polls. Scary.
I just got an email from Zilbert Group. I am amazed to see buildings like Continuum II asking $880/sq.ft (cheapest price). 3-4 bedroom units are in the $1400/sq.ft.
Are these condos selling at these prices? Where are these buyers from (LATAM, Europe, Asia, etc) ??
La La,
You, who has a persian background and many others like you who are from, or their parents are from other countries, always wonder how come the all important US of A can be populated with such morons.
Until I moved to this country, I had not even the faintest clue as to how “Ignorant” and “simpleton” most Americans are. Outside of the educated and worldly wise environs of the North East, Southern California, Chicago, Miami, and a few other cities, this is a majorly ignorant country.
We have the above described areas, which are an enlightened, progressive areas similar to Western Europe and Canada. The rest are all – the less said the better. This is actually like 2 seperate countries living under one constitution.
So there should be no surprise about that ad you mentioned.
Here is the most comprehensive list of all the photos and artist renederings of all the major projects in Miami, both proposed as well as completed. Save this link.
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=100920
Hello DLJ, La La, Storm and other Edgewater residents, I sent this e-mail to my building residents asking them to join the association called NEAR. If you are interested please attend their meetings.
Essence of my e-mail: “Some of the residents have supported my initiative to form a ‘Pace Park Residents Association’ comprising of the buildings in the vicinity of Pace Park-OMNI area, but at the same time they have also suggested instead to join forces with an organization called NEAR, encompassing a larger area of Edgewater. I have discussed this with the activist residents from other buildings such as Quantum and they have welcomed the suggestion. It has been agreed that, as long as NEAR does not become Midtown Centric and does not concentrate exclusively on issues involving North of the 25th street, there is no harm in joining NEAR rather than form another association altogether. In the future, if the Arts District (Our neighborhood) issues require the forming of a separate association, we can still consider the issue at that stage.
I will be writing to the President of NEAR, Mr Rich Strell to rotate the meetings every once in a while between the Starbucks (30th street Midtown Location) and a location in the Arts District. It could be in a coffee shop or we could even assemble in the beautiful Pace Park! That way it will assure that those Pace Park residents who would otherwise may not drive up to 30th street will be more than inclined to attend the meetings of NEAR. The midtown residents will be more than glad to spend an evening in the Pace Park under the pretext of attending a meeting!
The next meeting of the Neighborhood of Edgewater Association of Residents (NEAR) will be held on Tue, Sept. 2nd, 6:30 pm at the 30th st. Starbucks. All interested persons are encouraged to attend.”
AJ said: “Until I moved to this country, I had not even the faintest clue as to how “Ignorant” and “simpleton” most Americans are.”
AND:
“We have the above described areas, which are an enlightened, progressive areas similar to Western Europe and Canada”
Perhaps an immigration blog would be a more appropriate place for these comments. The “ignorant majority” may begin to offer you unsolicited directions to the nearest airport!
Nothing personal.
Renter tom,
You forgot :
“The Mark”
I always thought only “a mark” would pay $400/sf.
Oh yeah @ AJ. Most of the people stupid enough to pay ridiculous prices are Northeasterners, So Cal, Western Europe….hmmm. Seems “enlightenment” and bad business sense go hand in hand. Western Europeans are some of the most racist, hateful, and stupid people out there.
AJ
the fact that mainstreet americans don’t conform to your “enlightened” foreign sensibilities is of no concern to them (or to me). if you don’t like it, you’re welcome to leave at any time.
Please keep this blog on the rational side and don’t become to emotional !
Such argueing is unhelpful.
@BFG #130
Down payment requirements have no effect on mortgage fraud. The closing/escrow agent is usually in on the scam (if not the one driving it). All they need to do is inflate the price by the imaginary down payment amount and represent to the lender that it was made…
The Housing Revolution: From Speculative Investment to Low-Cost Shelter (August 28, 2008)
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug08/revolution48-08.html
The revolution unfolding in U.S. housing will shift the perception of home ownership as a store of investment/speculative value to low-cost shelter. Some will say this is a horrible devolution, others a much-needed evolution; perhaps it is another cycle based on the larger credit-expansion/contraction cycle:
The key feature of housing as investment or speculation is that it depends totally on cheap, readily available lending to sustain prices. Once cheap, readily borrowed money dries up, so does the pool of potential buyers. When sellers far outnumber buyers, prices fall–and as credit shrinks, then the price eventually falls to its cash value, i.e. what someone is willing to pay in cash for the dwelling.
The salient feature of housing on the upswing half of the cycle is that the entire cost structure becomes bloated. When prices are rising by 10% or more in a short period of time, the cost of labor and materials is sloughed off–the owners’ eyes are glued to the prospect of quick profit.
Even those who are “investing for the long-term” focus not on rising costs but on the “value added” by unnecessary “improvements” such as granite countertops, lavish bathrooms, “bonus rooms,” etc. The perceived “value” is not so much the actual advantages of the improvement–let’s face it, granite doesn’t make you a better cook or even enable faster cleanup–but on the increase in selling price the improvement is supposed to yield.
In the upswing, “home” magazines proliferate as do articles about “which projects add more value.” Housing is perceived as a store of appreciating value, and those who benefit from this perception relentlessly propagandize this perspective in the mainstream media.
As the “land rush” to buy/invest and “add value” increases, so do costs all along the line. Demand for skilled labor and materials trigger hefty increases in the cost of construction and renovation; as builders get busy, they raise their profit margins. As sales prices rise, property taxes increase; all of these rapidly rising expenses of ownership are ignored as prices are climbing even faster.
At the peak of the credit cycle, credit growth is exponential, feeding a speculative frenzy. The costs of ownership far exceed the cost of renting, but “ownership” is no longer the focus; housing is viewed first and foremost as a highly leveraged speculative vehicle that “everyone” can play.
As the speculative mania takes hold, builders ignore rising costs and the fundamentals of location and demand, and leverage all available resources into building “product” which can be sold even before the foundation is poured.
Then the credit cycle turns, as it always does, usually suddenly. Highly leveraged credit bets fail, risk rears its ugly head, regulators discover widespread fraud (“round up the usual suspects”) and the euphoria is replaced by fear.
As credit dries up, all real estate is faced with plummeting demand. Buyers are scarce for two reasons: few can borrow the vast sums now required to buy property, and potential buyers are wary of falling prices. Buying on the way down (“catching the falling knife”) is a good way to lose one’s shirt.
The virtuous cycle of ever-rising values supporting ever-rising leverage reverses, and declining prices pull the props out from leveraged speculation. No-down or low-down payment owners quickly sink to negative equity, and even those who put down 20% are facing 50% losses in capital after a mere 10% decline in the value of their home.
As speculators are forced out of the real estate market by losses and insolvency, then players revert to the “real estate is the best long-term investment” mantra.
Unfortunately there is a huge fat diseased fly in the “investment” ointment: the bloated cost structure left from the speculative bubble remains firmly in place. Everyone in the food chain is loathe to lower prices; everyone from contractors to suppliers to cities collecting property taxes has built high-cost structures: extra employees, membership at the YMCA for all employees, new trucks, etc. etc.
And in the go-go environment of easy speculative money, regulatory costs climb as well; with few constraints on costs, then workers compensation insurance, liability insurance, etc. all rise as well, and then stubbornly stay high even as real estate slumps.
As losses mount, everyone in the food chain demands subsidies and give-aways to prop up sagging prices. Since costs have risen far beyond historical measures of value and speculative demand has vanished, the supply/demand ratio cannot support inflated prices without government subsidies.
But alas, as the true (high) costs of such subsidies becomes visible, public support disappears and the subsidies are cut. Once this last leg of support is pulled, the price of real estate falls to its “natural” level, i.e. in line with the value as set by credit availability and by the market-rate rental income the property generates.
Since overbuilding is a natural result of credit bubbles, there are now more residences than households. As credit tightens, the entire economy contracts; as jobs are lost, households increase in size and the demand for more residences drops.
As losses mount and assets deflate, households jettison surplus housing: second homes, “investment” condos, etc., further adding to the inventory of empty homes.
If the credit expansion was truly historic (i.e., 1920s and the present), then the resulting contraction will be historic, too, lasting longer than anyone anticipates.
As housing declines along with credit availability, bottom after bottom is called by the real estate industry–but all are false. As equity shrinks and each “bottom” is followed by further declines, households’ perception of the “long-term investment value” of housing weakens.
The problem is the cost-structure of the housing food chain remains completely out of touch with historic ratios. Once the cost structures rise, they stubbornly resist any decline; skilled labor only grudgingly accepts lower pay, counties grudgingly lower property taxes, realtors grudgingly discount fees, and so on.
For instance: back in the early 1980s, my company built numerous small (under 1,000 sq. ft.), modest “starter homes” for about $40,000, or about $45/sq. ft. Adjusted for inflation, such homes would cost about $90,000 in today’s dollars, or $90/sq. ft. Yet prices for even modest homes have soared to $200 to $300/sq. ft., and the average size of houses has bloated to absurdly impractical 3-4,000 sq. ft. McMansions.
Note that the cost-structures of maintaining such huge homes have risen, too; heating and cooling such vast interior spaces is not efficient or cheap, and commuting to distant exurban housing is no longer cheap, either.
The ultimate end-point of the credit contraction cycle is the reduction of the entire cost structure of housing back to historic norms: roughly 2 to 3 times median income to own, and roughly 1/3 annual income to rent.
Once the perception of housing as a sure-fire long-term investment has been eroded by year after year of declining or stagnant prices, then households will revert to deciding to buy only if buying is actually cheaper than renting. With leverage largely unavailable (“prove you don’t need the money and we’ll lend it to you”), the “return on investment” of the cash required to buy a home will be: the fixed costs are lower than renting an equivalent dwelling.
About 25% of all homes in the U.S. are owned free and clear (no mortgage). As elder owners pass on, these houses may well be seen by the lucky offspring/inheritors not as an asset to sell to fund superflous consumption but as a desirable low-cost place to live: that is, shelter.
Sometimes a revolution occurs mostly in the minds of the participants.
Jcrimes, Interested and many other wellwishers such as Unrelated etc,
That is exactly why our country’s stock has gone down around the World. Our economy was left in the hands of morons for the past few years. Any criticism is taken as anti American and shutting the other point of view completely.
And puhleez, I know the directions to the nearest airport, seaport and land exit too. But I don’t need to run nowhere because I still believe that America can come out of the self inflicted misery one day. Even though the “uneducated ignorants” are in a slight minority, they are extremely vocal, militant and have undue influence on the rest of the country. I believe that globalization will eventually change all that.
It is so silly, how some card carrying “Patriots” want to throw out anyone who do not agree with them. Can you tell Bill Mahar to get lost and go and live in Netherlands? He calls most Americans with the worst possible insults but Bill Mahar is one of the most patriotic Americans out there.
Just because you are born here does not automatically make you love America more than I do. I love this country as much as the country I left behind. That is why I am so sad when a$$holes are ruining this great country. We have become significantly weaker economically, militarily and now even in the sports, we got knocked to second place. The only other place we are still competitive is in the area of innovation and other countries are slowly gnawing into that territory too. So don’t beat me down with a stick if I bemoan the loss of American prestige around the World.
Do something positive about it.
Still think prices aren’t falling? UPDATE
7700 COLLINS AV # 1, Miami Beach, FL 33141**
Price Reduced: 06/30/08 — $500,000 to $480,000
Price Reduced: 07/07/08 — $480,000 to $460,000
Price Reduced: 07/15/08 — $460,000 to $440,000
Price Reduced: 07/24/08 — $440,000 to $400,000
Price Reduced: 08/04/08 — $400,000 to $380,000
Price Reduced: 08/07/08 — $380,000 to $360,000
Price Reduced: 08/11/08 — $360,000 to $340,000
Price Reduced: 08/18/08 — $340,000 to $320,000
Price Reduced: 08/28/08 — $320,000 to $300,000
AJ – Perhaps you need to broaden your horizons a bit and live in the sensible midwest like Iowa with one of the best educational systems in the country. You might be surprised at how smart they are and how your “big city” thinking might not be all it cracked up to be, superior attitude and all. Quite frankly I vote for a president of the United States, not for president of the world. I don’t go around berated your country and its leaders, but you certainly feel free to criticize us yet live off the goodness of it. Not a good guest, I certainly would not go visit or live in a foreign country and belly ache about that country. So go ahead and vote for no resume candidate like Obama if it will make you feel better, oh wait, you can’t vote. Stop mocking our country and leaders, that is a privilege of this country’s citizens to do and it is very poor manners and rude to do what you are doing.
Listen, I’m not Mr. American Patriot over hear. In fact, I think this country is run by a bunch of chimps. I’m just saying that the biggest suckers in this entire condo congame were NORTHEASTERNERS, EUROPEANS, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIANS. These people should be kicked in the face.
Lucas,
We need a new post !!
Tom,
Just for your info, I am a citizen and I can vote. So cool it with your assumptions and aspersions.
And yes, I am justified to be mad, when my tax dollars are being spent in a war that has been waged as a result of personal vengeance and not spent to repair the crumbling infrastructure or invest in education and R&D.
I am also sure that I am paying more money to uncle Sam than you. So I have every right to gripe.
Aj,
Sorry you got beat up by responding to my innocuous comment. When giving a written response or opinion, it lacks the finesse, intonation, etc to reflect humor or whatever the intention meant to be conveyed.
America, like every other country, is comprised of both intelligent people and idiots and some in between. Both appear to read this blog. I didn’t mean to sound elitist, and I don’t think you did either. I meant no offense, and I know you didn’t either. I do get annoyed though when I see those commercials.
My patriotism swelled watching the Olympics and I am damn to be born in America and an American. But I agree, Lucas, we need a new post!
Oops, I meant damn proud to be born an American. I was typing to fast!
I mean TOO fast, blogging makes your grammar go to hell, I swear!
La La,
I agree.
Talking about TV ads, Have you seen the Exxon- Mobil black & white ads with some researcher or sceintist talking, which are downright annoying and totally meaningless. You see them a lot in CNN in the New York Market. Who do you think Exxon-Mobil is trying to fool?
My mistake, I thought AJ was the foreign guy living in Miami. Regardless, the midwest might teach you a thing or two about the silly superiority of the urbanites.
Tom,
I like mid-westerners. I think they are one of the most philanthropic people in the World. They are the best givers and volunteers, America has ever seen. I have no beef with them at all.
OK back on topic, anybody here in a position to confirm that Brickell doc loans were easy to be had at 10-20% 6 months ago but now are more like 20-40%?
This is a big deal if the Miami Herald article is correct.
JL,
It must be an isolated case with just one bank and one customer. If this is the new standard policy accross the board, then it is over for housing.
Please visit http://www.miami21.org/ and join forces with Rich Strell if you think this requires action. Here is Rich Strell’s e-mail:
[email protected]
Text of the e-mail:
Miami 21 is the name of the new proposed zoning plan for the entire
city of Miami. It’s based on “new urbanism” principles, which many of
us like in theory. It will be voted on and if it pases, will become
law by Nov or Dec 2008.
The problems here are: the application, the city’s lack of making
clear many important points, and that the Mayor who’s behind the plan,
he refuses to make any one person accountable for the answers
dessiminated. (Impt because they have been contradictory and if what
we’re being told isn’t true, the city more easily avoids ethical and
legal challenges). Yet, if the city feels they have been
straightforward with a plan which is great for the city, as claimed,
one would think they would have one person accountable for the plan.
NEAR has voted to not support it. We are in good company, the local
chapter of the AIA, American Institute of Architects, the professional
org for Miami most likely to understand it, has come out formally
against it! And, even several land use attorneys have come out against
it.
Within a few weeks, we will have a verdict from MNU (Miami
Neighborhoods Unit). They are a consortium of 14 neighborhood groups
(mostly single family homes); they have been very unhappy with also
for the above reasons stated. This, in spite of the fact that many of
their issues and needs differ significantly from those of residents in
the high rise areas. We will know soon, but it’s fair to say
dissapproval of the plan is coming from both pro-development and
quality of life advocates, as well as perhaps some anti-development
advocates. It’s rare for such divergent groups to agree on anything!
Miami21.org is thei city’s website. Applicable to us is what they call
“T6”, the category for high rises. Should you want to compare what’s
allowed now versus with this new code, note that the city removed all
of what they called the “conversion charts” – charts which showed what
could be built on typical lots, from 5,000 to 40,000 sf. While the
charts took an architect to understand them, the numbers did not match
the claims. The city has refused to reupload these charts, and instead
uploaded “models” of high rises which are very atypical of what are
most likely to be built in Miami in the future, for reasons too
complicated to go into here.
A few highlights: the plan calls all our side streets 50′ x 70′ wide
on “average” and bases all their future plans for buildings and
traffic on these widths. And, the plan calls for widening sidewalks —
which means street widths will be narrower than the 35′ on average
which they really are.
Thus, if you think the Boulevard is not bike -friendly now, imagine
the street much narrower than it is now, as it will be once they take
room from the lanes for wider sidewalks. The plan is not based on what
zoning changes usually are based on, such as traffic studies, and
other than a possible street car which will not connect at the north
end to anything, mass transit is not a component of the plan (yet
forms the basis of most rezoning plans in progressive US cities).
The details are very complicated, far too numerous to go into here.
But, the groups mentioned, inclusing NEAR, believe the good elements
of Miami 21, can easily be incorporated into our current,
understandable, plan (called “11,000”), rather than one which in three
years and after $2.4 M, many who have taken the time to study it,
including architects, either still can’t understand it; and many who
do, feel it’s riddled with major flaws.
I would be glad to answer questions about it — since I know the plan
better than many. In fairness, as you might infer, I have my clear
opinion of it.
It’s such a detailed plan, that it would boring for most members to
discuss at a monthly meeting. So, feel free to email me, or if there
are many with questions or a need to discuss, we could set up a
meeting soley for this purpose.
Sincerely,
Richard Strell
[email protected]
Interested:
Very nicely written article on your post 149.
Thank you.
What I think the Miami Herald article is inferring is that banks are really cracking down if you don’t fit a perfect model of say a physician/corporate lawyer earning 6 figures reliably over 10 years with a great credit score.
The problem with Miami is that buyers here are very non-traditional. Entrepeneurs with 20 corporations, Foreigners with unknow backgrounds or people who lucked out on a scam and made some fast money recently.
AJ,
I will read it tomorrow when my mind is fresh, I’m well into happy hour now with no intention of letting up, I’m also on my “stay-cation” so bottoms up! Cheers! Basalamati!
As for Miami21, I do have a postcard with a series of dates for community meetings for the different areas, I think most have passed by now. It’s at the office, if any are remaining, I will post them Monday.
P.S. Who needs to calm traffic in Miami by widening sidewalks and narrowing travel lanes, it sounds counter-productive to Miami mentality to me. Forget it! I wanna go fast, fast, fast, to hell with all you Grandmas.
What exactly is Basalamati? Masala Basmati?
It’s a Persian toast. To your health????
What were the good restaurants you guys were talking about in that previous post?
In the Arts District I should specify, there was one by a gym or something?
Oops!!! #153 = here…not hear….that was terrible.
Listen “investors”…did you see post #151? If you didn’t I copied and pasted it:
7700 COLLINS AV # 1, Miami Beach, FL 33141**
Price Reduced: 06/30/08 — $500,000 to $480,000
Price Reduced: 07/07/08 — $480,000 to $460,000
Price Reduced: 07/15/08 — $460,000 to $440,000
Price Reduced: 07/24/08 — $440,000 to $400,000
Price Reduced: 08/04/08 — $400,000 to $380,000
Price Reduced: 08/07/08 — $380,000 to $360,000
Price Reduced: 08/11/08 — $360,000 to $340,000
Price Reduced: 08/18/08 — $340,000 to $320,000
Price Reduced: 08/28/08 — $320,000 to $300,000
You know what that is? That is the site of your investment turning into a nightmare. It’s eating your lunch. You see, if you have a millions of milkshakes(or money which can buy milkshakes), and I have a condo….and you give me your milkshakes (or enough to buy millions of milkshakes)….well, you overpaid for your condo….and I….DRINK…..YOUR…..MILKSHAKE. I DRINK IT UP!
I love that movie. But the message is true. You are losing money, you’ll continue to lose it. I take pleasure in that fact. I love to see the fool separated from their money. hehehe
oops again. site=sight. I’m retarded with English, but I’m good with money.
buyers are going to need a lot of salamati to weather the downturn of the condo market in Miami.
AJ- your comments just keep showing your intelligence.
Obviously the RATE of price declines will taper and we’ll be through the worst of the rates of decline by the end of the year (barring an Obama election, hehehe). There is nothing the government can do in the long term to prop up housing prices (where were they in 2000 for my tech stocks! LOL) they can only help to make it an orderly decline. In the end, those that were underwater on their mortgage, even if refinanced to avoid foreclosure, will still be underwater in the long run…that’s what you get when you don’t require a legit down payment. The government can not force a reduction in principle owed on a mortgage since mortgages are private contracts. So anyone who is praying to the almighty federal government can stop now. If I hear one more person saying the election is going to fix the housing price declines I will join AJ in declaring many Americans as idiots (at least those in urban areas! LOL).
I anticipate that in real dollar terms, prices will continue to decline through at least 2010 with a very real probability of through 2012-2014. This housing decline in the major bubble markets will probably be the worst decline in recorded history, worst than the great depression era for those locations. Other, albeit smaller, housing busts indicate that bust lasts 1.5 times as long as the boom. A 5 year boom will be a 7.5 year bust which puts us at 2014.
Just some ramblings, but good to reiterate how this thing is going to play out.
La La, It is the 18th street cafe at the 18 and NE 2nd ave.
Too late! We went to Soyka, it was great! Miami Spice prices – 3 more days, awesome service- Katie, and the food was delish. God, I will regret the day that little haven becomes popular to the masses.
OK. What is the address?
5582 NE 4th Court. It’s right off of Biscayne Blvd and 54th St. Do you know where Andiamo’s Pizza is? It’s across the street from it. There’s also a News Cafe and a sushi restaurant. It was crowded, but pleasantly crowded. We got a parking space easily and a table easily. I love the decor too.
Thanks. Will check it out one day. Lots of places near the Morningside. Hopefully we will have a some good lounges in walking distance from the pace park soon.
I’m thinking about getting a place at One Miami for what turns out to be 244/sf facing the river/bay, on a low floor. Should I do it or wait?
Also, for those people being in the building/living there (or have heard horror stories), please convince me otherwise…
I understand the parking to be a mess, anything else?
fogot to mention it was a 2/2
MB, the HOA dues I heard are steep. Also one of the only new buildings to have charged a special assessment already!
$244/sf is not that fantastik for a low floor and facing the river. That is just a ok Price.
the HOA dues are 680/month… which are steep, if not as steep as in other places. Do you know which one of the buildings got charged the special assessment? and if so, will the other one follow closely?
thanks for your help guys… i really appreciate it!!!
MB, I read about the assessments on this site. I do not have first hand info. I think either La La or Lara lived in the building. If they are reading, they can chip in on this subject. The HOA, $680 for a 2/2 is very comparable to other buildings.
Just to let everyone know. I checked with the property manager recently. It was a few years ago for $1500. How reliable this information is, who knows…
Hold fast in the ranks and keep your powder dry $125 per sq ft is now less than a year away.
The Smart Money
[…] been three months since I last released the Brickell Condo Index. The last update for Brickell condos was published in August 2008. The data used to create the statistics below was collected on November 18, 2008 from the […]
[…] – bookmarked by 4 members originally found by mochidukimi on 2008-12-23 Miami Condo Index – Brickell – August 2008 http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/2008/08/22/miami-condo-index-brickell-august-2008/ – […]