Miami Condo Index – Brickell – August 2008

August 22, 2008

It has been four months since the last installment of the Miami Condo Index for Brickell.  The last update for Brickell condos was provided in April 2008.   The data below was collected on August 18, 2008 from the MLS.  While crunching the numbers earlier today, it quickly became apparent that prices have continued to fall within the past four months and, in some cases, prices have fallen hard.

The Brickell Condo Index now stands at an average price per square foot of $441.84.  This represents a 7.71 percent drop in the average asking prices of the 18 condo developments that comprise the Brickell Condo Index over the past four months, or an annualized loss of 23.13 percent.  You’ll see in the graph towards the bottom of the post that about four condo developments have had significant reductions in their average asking prices within the past four months.

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos currently listed on the MLS:

• Atlantis on Brickell – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $292.94
• Brickell on the River North – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $358.40
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $469.46
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $442.32
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $1,000.99
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $383.63
• Jade at Brickell Bay – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $594.29
• Latitude on the River – 185 SW 7 St | 331310 | $388.62
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $320.47
• One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $393.79
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $742.40
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $400.90
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $410.54
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $366.94
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $402.27
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $360.07
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $368.50
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $256.60

The average price of Brickell condos sold over the past six months has dropped 23.49 percent to $313.97 per square foot from April’s average of $410.38.  However, much of this drop is attributed to the fact that Four Seasons Residences, which sells at the highest price per square foot of the 18 condo developments comprising the Brickell Condo Index, has not had one closed sale in the MLS within the past six months and therefore was not included in this month’s average.  The average would have dropped around 14.37 percent had Four Seasons Residences been included using its April average.  That would still have represented an annualized drop in the average sales prices of about 43 percent!!!

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:

• Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $241.89
• Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | N/A
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $379.26
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $240.51
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | N/A
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.83
• Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $447.72
• Latitude on the River – 185 SW 7 St | 33130 | $323.74
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $264.58
• One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $316.15
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $625.05
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $296.45
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | N/A
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $224.18
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $311.29
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $240.85
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $292.44
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $188.62

Below you will find some additional statistics:

As in the past, the first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. An “N/A” is found next to Brickell on the River, Four Seasons Residences and Solaris at Brickell since this percentage could not be computed as each building failed to have a closed sale within the past six months through the MLS, and thus did not have an average price per square foot for condos sold.  A high percentage indicates that there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price for condos currently on the market and what has actually sold within the past six months.

The second column is the number of active listings in each condo development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. To me, this is one indication of a sound condo development. Bristol Tower, Four Seasons Residences, Imperial at Brickell, Santa Maria, The Palace and Villa Regina are the condo buildings highlighted in green.  All, with the exception of Four Seasons Residences, were built prior to 2000 and none were targets for wild speculation during the last real estate boom.  The ones highlighted in red reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. There’s definitely underlying risk in buying in these condo developments and I’d only advise buying in one of these if the price justifies the risk. Jade, Solaris at Brickell and Vue at Brickell are the condo developments highlighted in red.  Each was built in 2004 or after and victimized by speculation and rampant mortgage fraud.  Prices in each have fallen like a ton of bricks within the past year.  The condo developments with active listings less than 10 percent are considered safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.

The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past six months. There are a total of 79 total pending sales in the 18 condo buildings represented in the Brickell Condo Index. In April, there were a total of 58 pending sales at the time. The Club at Brickell Bay, Vue at Brickell and Jade each have pending sales in the double digits. The same goes for closed sales within the past six months in each of these condo developments.  In April, there were a total of 64 closed sales within the past six months.  This figure has almost doubled since April with a total of 123 closed sales within the past six months. With 25 closed sales within the past six months and 25 pending sales in the pipeline at The Club at Brickell, I question myself whether some sort of stability is finally being reached.  Again, the 25 closed sales had an average price of around $224 per square foot.  If the answer to my questions is no, then where will the dust finally settle?  Of the three condo developments, The Club at Brickell Bay was the only one which has had a reduction in its active listings since April.  That, to me, is progress.  From November 2007 until April 2008, average sales prices at The Club at Brickell Bay fell about 46 percent.  Now since April, we have seen another large drop of about 39 percent in its average sales price.  By year’s end, can prices at The Club at Brickell Bay hit the $150 per square foot mark that many of the commentors on this blog have mentioned?  A 30 percent drop in sales prices will bring us very, very close to that oft-mentioned number.  A better question is, will the pundits of this blog revise their guidance downward if that figure does become an eventuality in a few condo developments in Brickell?

The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and April’s, expressed as a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. Emerald at Brickell saw asking prices drop a little over 23 percent, Vue at Brickell slightly under 23 percent, Solaris at Brickell around 20 percent, The Club at Brickell Bay about 17.5 percent, Neo Vertika 11.4 percent and Jade 11.25 percent. Only Santa Maria and The Palace experienced average list prices actually rise.

The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and April’s, expressed as a percentage. Emerald at Brickell saw the largest drop with a 41.21 percent decline, although only one closed sale was found in the MLS within the past six months to calculate its new average. It has a difference of around 46 percent in its average sales and asking prices.  This is the largest pricing discrepancy amongst the 18 condo developments represented in the Brickell Condo Index.  This just shows me that asking prices at Emerald at Brickell still have a ways to come down before reaching its market clearing value.  The Club at Brickell Bay had its average sales price drop around 39 percent, Skyline on Brickell around 25.5 percent, The Palace about 25 percent and Villa Regina around 25 percent.  Only Latitude on the River and Santa Maria experienced an uptick in average sales prices since the last Brickell Condo Index update.

This the first month where we saw average sales prices for a Brickell condo building fall below $200 per square foot.  Vue at Brickell is now sitting on an average sales price of around $189 per square foot, calculated from the 17 closed sales in the MLS that it has had within the past six months.  A look at the listings currently available at Vue at Brickell indicates that prices will continue to fall, as over 30 listings have an asking price below the $189 per square foot average.  In fact, four listings are currently asking less than $150 per square foot.  It goes without saying that Vue at Brickell will likely hit the $150 average sales mark before any of the other condo developments in the Brickell Condo Index.

Another insight I made while pondering the figures for this month’s Brickell Condo Index is that Santa Maria is alive and kicking.  It looks healthy despite the slow down in the real estate market.  Its average listing and sales prices have both gone up within the past four months.  It has also had 8 closed sales within the past six months.  That may not seem like a lot but, with only 174 total condos, Santa Maria is not a huge mega-building with 500-plus units like we often see nowadays.  It also has the most realistic asking prices.  The discrepancy in asking and sales prices is 15.81 percent, the lowest amongst the 18 condo developments.  Couple all that with the fact that the currently available listings at Santa Maria only represent around 8 percent of its possible inventory and I’m saying that it’s good to see that there’s still one stand-up condo development amongst the 18.