The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Closing Percentages for Brickell Flatiron, Paramount Miami Worldcenter, and One Thousand Museum
Back in November 2007, I started a series of blog posts called “New Construction Closing Rates” where I shared with my readers the closing percentages of the vast number of condo developments that were being delivered at the time. It became a very popular series with my readers mainly due to the transparency it offered to the public. As some may expect, in times of market trepidation, condo developers tend to safeguard their sales and closing figures.
Well, at the beginning of this year, mainly out of my own curiosity, I began tracking the closings of three of the newest condo developments in Greater Downtown Miami: Brickell Flatiron, Paramount Miami Worldcenter, and One Thousand Museum. As this post is named “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”, I’ll begin first with Brickell Flatiron, the condo development that has fared the best of the three condo developments.
Of the three condo developments, Brickell Flatiron was the most recent to begin closings. Its first closing took place on November 1, 2019, while closings for Paramount Miami Worldcenter and One Thousand Museum began on August 13, 2019 and July 15, 2019, respectively.
Since November 1, 2019, according to public records, the developer of Brickell Flatiron has successfully closed 433 of 527 total units (an 82.2 percent closing percentage) as of this writing. The most recent closing that appears in public records took place on March 6, 2020. It’s important to note that there can be a lag of two to three weeks between the time a property closes and when it appears in public records. As of late, the developer of Brickell Flatiron has averaged around 6 closed units per week. In the month of February, the developer closed a total of 25 units. At this pace, the developer of Brickell Flatiron should hit the 90 percent closed mark by the end of next month. And even if closings were to significantly slow due to the nightmarish economic conditions posed by the Coronavirus, the developer would be in a solid position to ride it out given that the construction loan for Brickell Flatiron was paid off three months ago.
In numerical order, here are the 433 units at Brickell Flatiron that have closed and been recorded as of March 19, 2020.
As mentioned above, Paramount Miami Worldcenter closings began on August 13, 2019. Since then, the developer has closed 336 of 569 total units (a 59.1 percent closing percentage) as of this writing.
This past week, the Paramount Miami Worldcenter sales team sent out a marketing email stating that it had $7 million in sales in the month of February. Well, according to public records, the developer of Paramount Miami Worldcenter closed seven (7) units in the month of February totaling $6,964,000 (close enough in my book). Kudos to the sales team! The most recent recorded closing took place on February 24, 2020. The bad news, of course, is that at a pace of 7 units per month, the last of the developer inventory won’t be sold until the end of 2022.
In numerical order, here are the 336 units at Paramount Miami Worldcenter that have closed and been recorded as of March 19, 2020.
Of the three condo developments, One Thousand Museum began closings the longest ago. Closings began on July 15, 2019. Since then, the developer, as of this writing, has closed 45 of 84 total units (a 53.6 percent closing percentage). While that may not be too surprising given the price point of the development compared to the neighborhood average (~$1,200 per square foot vs. ~$425 per square foot), what I do find worrisome is that One Thousand Museum hasn’t had a single closed sale year-to-date, according to public records. The most recent recorded closed sale was on December 27, 2019. At a pace of one closed unit per every three months, the developers won’t close out the remaining inventory until the start of 2030!
What I find puzzling is that on February 18, 2020, the One Thousand Museum Instagram account shared news of having four sales in four weeks. Sounds great, right? Definitely! But not a single one of those four sales has been recorded. So what happened to the four sales? Given that there’s only a two to three week lag between when a unit closes and when it appears in a public records, all four of those sales should have shown up by now. As mentioned earlier, the closings that took place on March 6th and February 24th at Brickell Flatiron and Paramount Miami Worldcenter, respectively, already show up in public records.
If you go even further back, in December 2018, the sales director of One Thousand Museum told The Real Deal that One Thousand Museum was 82 percent presold (69 of 84 units). So what happened to the other 24 units that didn’t end up closing? Did those contract holders all default, losing huge deposits in the process, or was it all hogwash?
In numerical order, here are the 45 units at One Thousand Museum that have closed and been recorded as of March 19, 2020. Those 45 units are comprised of 1 duplex townhouse, 40 half-floor residences, and 4 full-floor penthouses. That means that the remaining developer inventory at One Thousand Museum is comprised of 3 duplex townhouses, 30 half-floor residences, and 6 full-floor penthouses.