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HAPPY NEW YEAR Lucas and welcome back.Nice Deal’s there…..any more??
Lucas, welcome back and happy new year! Looking forward to reading your blog in ’09!! If possible, I’d love to see links to the remaining 31 distressed sales from Dec.
Lucas, How much are the condo conversions going for in the suburbs now like Kendall for example.
Are they crashing back to earth faster than the Brickell Condo’s?
Renter Tom..as a Sunny Isles resident and noteworthy expert .What would your thoughts be on the La Perla..on Collins?Does it compare with most of the other luxury building’s on the strip? Your opinion would greatly appreciated. thank you
onemortime – It is my understanding that the La Perla was one of the earlier new condos to be completed….sometime in 2006 but was first proposed several years earlier (2001-2002?). It is adjacent to the Newport Beach Hotel & Resort (a fairly dated yet popular hotel) on the north and the major beach access and pier access on the south. It is nothing special regarding finishes (standard was carpet and black appliances) and amenities (what real amenities exist?) but has the advantage of being further along with its HOA than some of the very very recent buildings. The same developer has gone belly up on a large Hollywood project and no longer has any ownership interest in the building leaving numerous items unfinished which were and are being passed along to the owners now (legal actions). It is midgrade level — newer than the Oceania’s to the south and Sands Point to the north. It is one of the least expensive of the newer buildings as Turnberry, Sayan, Trump Towers, Jade Beach and Jade Ocean all were competing for the more ultra lux buyer. It is the only one of the few new buildings that have maybe 1/3 the lights on at night as opposed to 5%! Very very high number of rental units and combined with the units for sale make about 30% of the building currently for rent or sale (obviously a lot are already rented out so perhaps 50% are for rent, for sale, or rented). I know several people in the building …. all renters, supposedly the lower floors on the north side next to the Newport complain about the noise from the Newport.
So if you want to rent, there are some great deals ….but looks like Trump Towers is coming out with some even better rental deals considering they are much much nicer. To buy, I wouldn’t pay more than $300/s.f….for some units $250/s.f. may be on the horizon. I heard the condo HOA delinquency rate may be as high as 10% even though the HOA fees are cheap compared to other buildings. So, no it is NOT a luxury building….and it depends if you are looking to buy or rent. There are around 330 units in the builing so that is a lot of people!
http://www.laperlamiami.com
Hope that helps….
gables,
I know that water views do not make or break your decision. So I think the Cite 3 BR short sale for 230K would have been perfect for you. I think $165/sf to be next to Pace Park, sandwiched between a Luxury (Quantum) and and Ultra Luxury (Paramount), you cannot get any better than that.
That is exactly why I go ballistic when some guys (you know who) put out a fatwa not to buy anything. Don’t listen to such blanket bans by these naysayers as you might lose out on some incredible deals such as these. Any one wanting to buy a flat to live in it never had it so good.
AJ said: “Any one wanting to buy a flat to live in it never had it so good.”
– Ohhhhh, it will get better as 2009 will be terrible. Did you read the Fed minutes from the meeting when the lowered the target rate to nearly zero? They are scared sh*tless about deflation in a debt laden economy. My point exactly per previous posts on asset prices in real dollars purchased with nominal dollar debt in a deflationary environment. We need some inflation……..but the demand curve has shifted permanently downward (not a cycle along the demand curve) as a result of the credit bubble (that can’t be reflated by the fed govt) and with slack in all areas of the economy – housing, condos, cars, TV’s, labor, home furnishings, apparel, etc. — the supply curve needs to shift downward while at the same time the slack needs to be absorbed….. write off 2009. Now with newbie wanting to replace consumer debt with govt debt in a futile attempt to reflate a credit bubble to create demand is misguided as this is NOT a business/economic cycle issue, it is a structural shift of the demand curve issue….big difference between the two. Maybe Euros are such a bad idea….
Good article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Millionaires-join-rest-us-feeling/story.aspx?guid=%7BB1746C4E%2DAA34%2D4241%2DB24A%2DE341F1B85E29%7D
Maybe Euros AREN’T such a bad idea…. (oppppps).
2009 has begun and so, unfortunately, has the same stale, ongoing “dialogue” between AJ and Renter Tom…(yawn)
isabel,
If you do not crawl under a rock and surface once every six months and instead regularly contribute to this blog and steer us in a different direction that you think is worth discussing about, things would not be so stale. But as usual everyone is a talker and a complainer but no one acts. It is like not voting but hoping your guy wins!
So for a change, do not clam up and express your opinion – On anything. Doesn’t even have to be related to Miami RE. Say something and spice up this “stale” blog.
Did the stock market hit the bottom? looks like it is
continuing with #11,
Why do we have 10 regular contributors and 10,000 passive readers? This new year all you girls and guys should post at least once a week if not once a day. How about that for a resolution?
That would take a little pressure off of me and RT to “entertain” you all. I know many of you open this blog the first thing (or the second) in the morning even before you open Yahoo News or your e-mail inbox 🙂
Anyone think #2012 at Marina Blue going for $127/sf was a good deal? I know it was part of a bulk sale, but does it represent a reasonable support level, if not a ‘bottom’?
$125.00 per square foot in nigh!
The Smart Money just purchased Unit#2o12 at Marinablue for $168,600, or $127.92 per square foot. The condo has 1,318 square feet of air conditioned space. In March, Unit 2112, an identical unit a floor above, sold for $557,740, or $423.17 per square foot.
The Smart Money in action.
HOW IS THE PLAZA ON BRICKELL DOING?
AJ is right, more people should contribute their thoughts instead of lurking and then RT vs AJ would only be 15% of the blog instead of 85%…….I do think their “battle” is reflective of what is happening right now. Marina Blue sure seemed to have a lot of advantages (earlier to market, good design, tons of water views, lower price point) than the next crop: 900, Marquis, Icon, Paramount, etc and still needed a bulk sale in order to pay off the loans. It is amazing to see some of the closed prices per square foot above compared to the wishing prices listed for comparable units in those buildings. If you really had to sell a unit at APOGEE quickly due to divorce or BK or Madoff would you get 4 Milly or more like 2? We have our 3 bedroom at Latitude listed at $495K which is means about a one hundred grand loss in a year and a half post buildout and am seriously considering dropping the price another $100K to $395…….
Lucas,
What about the promised update of the condo rankings ?
I have to agree with both AJ and RT, ok, they argue but I for one find it interesting, I find other posters like Gables, JCcrimes, Muir, Lala, Ace also worth listening to and reading, I will contribute to the site more, because I do read it.
For me, my plans are still the same find a nice holiday home in Miami for my family. I live in London and as you know the pound is shocking at the moment, so those are all factors I have to take into account. We are going out to take a look at the area in greater detail in Feb/March, so I will report back.
I work and live in the Waverly Building in South Beach. Many renters have left to find better deals elsewhere as rental prices are still very high for an aging building. 1 bedrooms go for $1,800 and 2 bedrooms start at $2,400 for junk. Prices do include internet, cable, gym and parking. Only other expense is electricity. Nothing is moving and 1 bedrooms seem out of favor. Prices need to substantially decrease. In addition, very few units are selling because they are just overpriced. Only the shorts sales and foreclosures that are deals are selling.
To all amateur economists on this blog,
Don’t think only in unidimensional patterns !
Look back what happened in the recent past.
If you are only a little familiar with the chaos theory, then you should know that the future could bring also some very unorthodox developments (not only bad ones).
Linear reflections don’t help a lot nowadays.
Swiss,
You have my sympathy holding that unit in Latitude. Not a great fan of the building, but have no major issues against it other than perhaps location. Right now the building should serve as a good upper working class facility. But you are now facing the major problem associated with such a building-your price point is too high for those folks to afford. To be honest, I would pay a slight premium for a 3B because of the extra living space, etc. But there is addtional cost of higher taxes and HOA for space not effectively used. This will put downward pressure on your sales price. I cant imagine paying over $300k for a 2B in the building, so even at $400k, you will probably find significant resistance to your unit unless the economy changes drastically.
AJ,
The Cite sale would have been of interest to me, except that I am not sure of the Cite building. Need to look up a bit more info. My preference is Brickell south to Coral Gables for personal reasons. But you now see the price point ($165 sf) which will get people like myself off of the sidelines (I recently inquired about a unit at $150 away from downtown, but sellers are dragging feet). Forget the need for direct bayview as you noted, my primary requirement is a safe and clean building which I can own a unit and sell without taking a loss versus rent in the next 5 to 10 years. when the price point allows that, most of the new buildings will finally be filled up with permanent residents.
Gables, you are correct $300-500K is still a ton of money for most working folks….How many people have 60-100K for a 20% down payment???…..the only consolation we have is that we could give this unit away and still have tons of profit on our prior bubblicious sales in SoCal & at JADE in 2005…We also put WAY too much into the LATITUDE interior (New Zealand wool carpets, Dark Bamboo, Italian Bathroon Fixtures, Crown, etc), but were sick of renting after a couple years at One Miami……….Whatever unit we ultimately move to (3-4 bedrooms ultra lux building minimum 2,000 square feet), it should also have suffered severly in price. Let’s say Marina Blue bulk sale at $200 psf means you should easily be able to buy at $300 psf….now let’s add $100 psf for more luxury so at $400 psf you should soon be able to get 2,000 square feet at 900 or Marquis or EPIC for $800K or less even though these sold over 1.2 mill pre-con and currently have outlandish asking prices……….There is a built out foreclosure at JADE 2,130 sf (same plan we bought years ago for 1.1K for 899K on the highest floor and built out)…..Interesting times indeed……..
Swiss,
Glad to hear you are not in a desperate situation and can consider any loss on the unit as just a reduction of profit from your other units. I’d be more than happy to help you write of the loss with an offer of $150 sf to take the property off your hands 🙂
Your logic of upgrades is of interest to me. It seems to me too many people did not properly account for the cost of upgrades and corresponding assessment value. In essence, it seems like many people thought a $30k flooring upgrade would be an instant $75k increase in sales price-pretty nice ROI but not realistic. Did you upgrade for investment purposes (which now does not seem like a good idea) or for personal preference (which i will not argue with-its your living environment)? In today’s market, you are not going to get any benefit from the upgrades-i tend to price a unit as if there are no extras at all, just building and location.
Also, you left One Miami. Any particular reason? I have considered it as one building I would buy in. I like the location and the building is old enough to have a HOA which should be working out the kinks. Does the building hold a dirty secret I should be aware of?
Swiss,
Not really sure what to expect at the new ultra luxury buildings such as Epic, Icon, etc. The cost to even get a contract seems to be quite high-probably keeping many of the scam speculators out of the game. I am sure plenty of speculators exist, but they are probably high net worth investors who may not be forced into foreclosures and walkaways quite so easily. My guess is they will lock their cash into an overpriced unit and suffer a loss on ROI rather than take a straight loss on the capital. These are probably the folks who as AJ noted in a previous post, will make Miami their new vacation destination for the next decade. I do not expect much liquidity in this ultra market in the next few years. But I guess i should not be too concerned about them, even at a significant discount these ultra buildings are out of my reach.
Lucas,
If you can find me a similar priced unit in Carbonell as listed above, let me know. I would consider that the best deal in the list. It certainly got my attention.
Lucas, do you have information about the ArteCity project in Miami Beach?
is the developer in trouble?
will the project ever finish?
thx
Well, with newbie already saying we’ll have Trillion Dollar deficits for YEARS and the 2009 deficit could be $1.2-$2 Trillion (yes, two trillion) we are now entering into insanity land. Who will finance such deficits? Certainly not the American people since their wealth and savings have recently waned. On the one hand the fed govt will complain about credit availability to consumers and businesses but then on the other hand they will absorb all the available credit that is out there….and cause interest rates to rise which is an indirect “tax” on the American people. How are mortgage rates going to remain low with $5 Trillion in NEW deficits needing to be funded??? The fed govt is grabbing all the capital that is out there…
Gables (#27)
I agree with you. I have been looking at that building for a while but want a 2/2 at least. Lucas, let me know.
Thanks
The Four seasons unit sounds good to me. You can’t go wrong buying in the best building. In the future once all this panes out the best buildings will be the ones where units will be able to sell fast in. This will happen because they distinguish themselves from all the other cookie-cutter holes called condos. And you can’t argue that the Four seasons is not the best building.
Ace you made a great buy, I was one of your early doubters that you would be able to find 125 sq/ft in a building such as marina blue. Great buy, how the hell you pulled it off I don’t know.
Gables, One Miami has a great location but wasn’t built originally as a luxury building…….should have used glass on the balcony’s marble in the bathrooms instead of ceramic tile, etc……that said, if you can buy in there for $150-175 psf you would be getting a nice lifestyle without spending what many other did to get in there……Carbonell is in a whole other class and is a building we would consider for a permanent residence…..VERY hard to get a good price there as Swire sort of controls the island, but the Key is not immune to larger economic forces and you can always ask Lucas to write a low offer for you.
Carbonell at just over 200 sq/ft is good deal. I really like Brickell Key, safe and upscale. Would love to see more deals like this and of course the Marina Blue deal that Ace scooped up. Great buy Ace!
The deals listed above look good; however, how realistic is it to get one?
I’ve spoken with a couple realtor friends, (and read somewhere in the blog a few posts back) and have heard its a nightmare trying to put in an offer for a foreclosure. The “deals” are almost impossible to get, due to multiple offeres, insider dealing, etc. Does anyone have any feedback or experiences in getting a “good deal” with a foreclosure?
Thx.
Raffi – Ace didn’t buy, he was quoting a recent sale to someone that was smart with their money…..at least that is how I read his post.
Az88, here’s how you get those deals….wait a few months and then the deals at 150 to 200/sf become common place. Insiders have by that time started getting deals at 80 to 125/sf and so on.
Hey ace….i am really interested in getting a good deal. For example the marina blue unit that you bought…..please inform us
the foreclosure deals are going to get easier to find in the future. most folks with cash and an itchy trigger finger have bought up the recent units thinking it was the bottom. these were mostly investor types. the rest of the cash on the sidelines are resident types, and will not buy so hastily. as time goes on, there will be less “insider” buying as they have already spent their cash. on the flip side, the difference between my buy and an insiders buy will be minimized as we push towards that ever elusive bottom. the great thing is we have far less cash to be invested in RE in the near term as most people are too gunshy, and will keep their investment cash in a safe money market for a while.
AZ88,
One has to put multiple offers on different apartments in order to get 1 through. I would estimate about 15-20% success rate. Obviously you have put down an inspection period where you can cancel the deal for whatever reason. It is very competitive out there. A lot of deals go through for about 10-15% above the asking price. Is it realistic? Yes. Dous it require focus and persistence? yes.
Also someone at the beginning asked about La Perla building. I was at the beginning of this project in 2001. Resold some of the apartments and still have 1 left. Though the price that I purchased it for is superb (the first round of pre construction prices in 2001) I still carry a negative cash flow. When apartment was not rented I lived there for a week at a time coming and going between NY and Miami.
My impression of the building: I like it. I chose it at the very beginning because of its location and (frankly to speak because of historical pier. Has it been restored btw?) This building has a very good style. Lobby is done with a very good taste. Nothing flashy or striking but very pleasing to the eyes and cozy. This lobby appeals to cultured, well educated crowd more of an intellectual type. It does not mean that that type of crowd lives in the bulding (it is not located next to Columbia University).
Now about apartments. Some of the floor plans are bad but some are really great. Every apartment has ocean views and some have stunning intracoastal, city and all the the way to Downtown views. HOA seems very stable and well established. Finished are very evarage but modern and nothing wrong with them. Prices are much lower than in other buildings except Oceania. IT is just my personal opinion. I am not selling my apartment because it is the worst time to sell. I’ll go through the storm and sell when the time is right.
RT, you don’t understand the way money works. The Fed government can run 100Trillion
dollar deficits if it wants to. It doesn’t need anyone to finance it and it doesn’t influence interest rates. Government debt only exists to control interest rates by draining or adding reserves to the system not to finance government. In fact if the government didn’t issue any debt at all and just paid interest on reserve balances, their would be no need for treasury notes and bills at all. Also the deficit in the WWII reach 25% of GDP with is about 7 times what it is today.
An interesting real situation to analyze:
I just heard from a buddy of mine that owns a 2/2 unit in the Brickell Bay Club condo (renting it out), that the association just passed a special assessment of $550/month for 36 months to replace the A/C and some other work.
With this assessment, he says he will pay over $1,200/month in HOA fees!
I believe he bought around 2003. He is renting it out at $2k/month and he says that with this special asessment, it is costing him $2k/month to carry the unit!
Think about what that will do to pricing!
And this is supposed to be a stable building…
bubbleRefuge – Sorry I can’t entertain your tin foil hat theories….the fed govt does not create wealth by printing money or issuing debt instruments. I don’t think you have convinced anyone on this blog.
With respect to La Perla….decent building, not luxury, 30% currently for sale or rent, very poor hallway finishes, underwhelming lobby… too small really. Four elevators plus service elevator for approx 330 units on around 43 floors. Worth $250/s.f. probably with best units worth $300/s.f. I heard a large special assessment ($3-5K/unit) is coming…not unexpected given the fact that the developer didn’t finish stuff. At one point someone told me that they were thinking of entering into some sort of condo-hotel arrangement with the Newport next door. Didn’t happen now has 6 month min. lease term instead which is the right way to go in establishing a building in my opinion. I would not be surprised if up to 30% of the building is leased. I give it a thumbs up for a midgrade building….all depends on the price you pay.
what does this do to my investment?
January 5, 2009, 1:56pm EST | Modified: Tuesday, January 6, 2009, 12:00am
Bulk buyer snags 60 units at Marina Blue
A Singer Island-based group has paid nearly $13 million for 60 units at the Marina Blue high-rise across from American Airlines Arena inMiami.
The deal was recorded in separate deed transactions between developer MistTowers – a subsidiary of Miami-based Hyperion Development – and buyer Welcome Bay on Dec. 24.
Joseph Kuharcik, an attorney in Palm Beach County who represented the buyer, declined to comment. Hyperion Development could not be reached immediately for comment.
The developer issued 374 deeds for the 516-unit Marina Blue before making the bulk deal with Welcome Bay, according to court records.
The total price, based on the taxable value paid for each deed, was about $12.9 million. The unit prices ranged from $165,000 to $264,000.
Robert Given, CB Richard Ellis executive VP in the South Florida Multi-Housing Group, estimated that the units sold for about $200 a square foot.
Given, who is not involved in the deal, suggested that senior lenders at projects like Marina Blue would be happy if units sold at $200 a square foot because that price could generate enough cash to pay them off.
“What you are going to find is that premium buildings and premium sites are going to have enough value to satisfy the senior lenders on new construction and additionally pay back some of the mezzanine and investor positions to a degree and those sites in marginal locations are going to be more challenged,” he said.
However, during preconstruction, units at Marina Blue were selling for about $400 a square foot.
The $200-a-square-foot price provides a ceiling for inferior pricing at inferior locations. But equal or better-quality condos may be able to generate a higher per-square-foot price, Given said.
When the 60-unit bulk sale is factored in, the building is about 84 percent sold, which is “very good” in this market, Given said.
Although $200 a square foot is less than what a lot of units in premier buildings sold for, even at preconstruction prices, it gives developers the breathing room to rent units immediately, and sell the units for more down the line, Given added.
“Once they pay off the senior lenders, they can slow down and maximize sales on the remaining units for investors,” he said. “Senior debt creates pressure to liquidate.”
Given also said that it could be an all-cash deal because financing is so hard to come by in the current market.
Many groups are on the prowl for bulk buys in downtown Miami.
The Related Group’s Jorge Perez is responsible for one of the few bulk buys that have been made public. He launched a buying fund that made two deals in the 528-unit 50 Biscayne, which Related Group built in partnership with Atlanta-based Cousins Properties. The bulk deal sold out the project and closed out its loan.
The 50 Biscayne buying fund, Lubert-Adler Partners, paid $6.1 million in May for 26 units –an average of $236,294 a unit – and $30.3 million for 120 units –an average of $252,504 a condo.
Condo Vultures Realty CEO Peter Zalewski, who was featured recently on 60 Minutes and frequently is quoted about his work to facilitate various bulk buys in Miami, was uncharacteristically silent on the Marina Blue deal.
Kevin Tomlinson, an Esslinger Wooten Maxwell broker specializing in condominiums, speculated that Corus Bank, Marina Blue’s lender, might be getting less from the developer. With individual condo buys becoming harder to come by, bulk buys are a lender’s best chance at recovering any of their money.
“The people who own the senior debt – they may be taking a discount,” Tomlinson said, noting that the deal may not be what the banked wanted or what it was owed, but it is better than nothing.
The 1/1 price at Four Seasons is striking.
Wonder what the condo fees might be on that one?
Cheers,
Visionary,
Thanks for the reminder. I’ve been swamped since I got back. I’ll try to get to it within the next couple of days.
Hugo,
thx for post#41
–
[email protected]
Lucas, How much are the condo conversions going for in the suburbs now like Kendall for example.
Are they crashing back to earth faster than the Brickell Condo’s?
🙂 surely you jest.
OOoops, your name is not Sherly.
I apologize.
Muir – Apartment to condo conversions are the worst performers I have ever seen. A 50% drop is lucky as 80% drops occur. Really really really poor investments. The only thing worse I suppose would be apartment to condo-hotels….if those happened. They make timeshares look like gold!
Lucas,
Wishing you Happy and prosperous New Year!
Are these 5 best condo deals – best in December 2008 or they are best for the time to come?
Do you believe that the prices will not fall any further in these buildings?
«Wonder what the condo fees might be on that one»
Never mind it’s on the listing. $480. Seems low for 611 sq. feet.
Raffi is correct Renter Tom.
Carlton, getting a great deal in this market and in particular Miami is rather easy but it does require patience and tenacity. I’ve been stating on here for two years that high end Luxury Condo prices will fall to $125.00 per square foot yet many fools doubted me and still doubt me so they continue to pay above $200.00 and even $300.00 and in moments of complete lunacy even above $400.00 per sq ft.
$125.00 per square foot or walk away, that simple!
The Smart Money
Poor & Unemployed,
Those are the 5 best deals that closed in the month of December. I think overall prices will continue to fall until the majority of foreclosures have been purchased and so many new ones are no longer hitting the market. I was quite shocked, however, when I saw the two foreclosures that closed at Four Seasons and Carbonell. Those two may represent the bottom in those two buildings but who knows.
Here’s a funny article that I just found. Another industry seeking $5B in federal bailout money:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/01/07/porn-industry-seeks-federal-bailout/
How on earth can the federal government run $100 trillion deficits and not influence interest rates?? The only ‘person’ to buy T Bills would be the Fed so in theory they could keep the US bond rates down but do you have any idea what would happen if they printed $100 trillion? Any bank would require huge rates of interest just to get back the inflation they will lose on their loans. I am no expert but I have enough knowledge and common sense to know that this is ludicrous.
Folks I think we are facing a solvency problem and not a liquidity one. Interest rates can stay low for awhile but companies and people won’t be able to service their debt because the music has finally stopped. It is time to pay the piper. All of the companies that invested on the assumption that the economy was going to continue to grow in the same direction are fooling themselves if they think their business plan is still solid. The consumer is way too overextended and even if rates stay low and credit available it will just delay the inevitable. It defies logic that a person can keep going into debt and not have to pay it at some time. Either it is now or in the future when they are in even more trouble and it will be that much worse.
I am afraid the powers that be in Washington are going the same route that FDR took and they are going to string this out for many many years. Welcome to the zombie economy. Instead of letting the economy have a severe steep and short depression we are going to have a prolonged era of no growth. Let the chips fall where they may and once businesses go bankrupt, people start saving, and prices for everything (land, warehouses, cars, labor, exports, etc.) get cheap enough then the capitalists can do what they do best and invest and only then can the economy grow from a solid foundation . It will be relatively short because many people/businesses will go bankrupt in a spiral and then prices will reach a point where they make sense again from an investment point of view. Look back at the market/economy crashes before the Federal Reserve had its huge powers- they were very severe and short but they came right back.
I am sorry for the long post but all of the insanity going on makes me wanna grab a molotov cocktail and start rioting like they did in Athens. This country used to be built on common sense and freedom and now I feel she has become a cheap whore who people f*ck and get their nut off before they realize she has aids and it is too late. A democracy is only as strong as its people and I am afraid we all have aids.
For what it is worth I am trying to profit from it all and so far I sold my puts on treasuries for a nice quick double and will try to accumulate enough until I can afford a nice place on the beach.
Oh, I am sorry to those of you with aids, it is not fair for me to compare lazy complacent people to you. You probably have bigger balls that all of us put together.
The Ace – Congrats! I thought you were quoting from an article that I had read on some of the prices…perhaps that was you! Enjoy the well researched and reasonable purchase…you should teach a class! LOL
lara – What line do you own in La Perla. I have seen several different units in there. Do you know if the owners voted to forego reserves (which would be a bad sign in my opinion) and have you heard about any large special assessment?
louix – I agree. There seems to be little loyalty to country left anymore as people just feed at the public trough. I see it almost every day. We need WORKFARE now! At the very least if you are going to take public assistance then work at least 2 days a week to make Miami the cleanest nicest city in the world….trash is everywhere and parking lots are so dirty around here. There seems to be a disconnect between work and reward….you earn money and save to build wealth, not too difficult of a concept unless the fed govt intervenes and screws it up. I fear the country is in trouble and it may be irreversible as I look to $5 Trillion in new deficits and people just stand around with their hands out doing nothing in return….NOTHING! It only means that housing prices will need to come down even more as real incomes decline…
I think the predictions of a 26% drop in 09 and another 6% in 10 were correct. You’ll be seeing us Huskers in 2010 with our bibs on and farmer tans cruising the beach with shoes and socks on.
I don’t know if it is my prodding or mere coincidence but bloggers who haven’t posted in a while have done so.
I am very happy that for once my name is not on every other post. I enjoyed reading all your views. Please keep it up guys. Thanks.
The Ace, your past 2 posts are misleading. Unit #2012 Marina Blue was part of the 60 unit bulk sale to Welcome Bay, and so #2012 was not an individual distressed sale that a person could work the phones really hard to find. It may eventually come to be for individuals, but just not at this moment.
Also, reading inbetween the lines from the DBR link, I don’t think one can put much faith in the pricings for each individual unit. I’m guessing a sale was worked for the 60 units in bulk, then prices were loosely slapped on a unit-by-unit basis for accounting/tax reasons at the closing.
Anyway, the real interesting part about the DBR article link comes at the end. It appears several investing groups passed on the Marina Blue portfolio LOL. So Welcome Bay buying Marina Blue at $200 sq/ft average might very well be the Dumb Money.
I can’t imagine what this condo market is going to look like in 2010… Buy an Escalade Hybrid for $499/month and get a 1BR at Marina Blue for free…. Maybe that could be part of the Stimulus package. Bundle a Miami Condo with every GM/Ford/Chrysler.
AJ, it was your post and that of Swiss I think that struck a cord with people hence the posts or maybe new year ,new posts.
RT,
I own 07 line in La Perla. I signed papers on voting for the budget but did not get results yet. I have not heard about large assessment. Hopefully it does not happen.
It happened in the other building in Miami Beach which is painful. For the next 5 months I have to pay additional $500/month. IT is not a disaster but very unpleasant.
lara – From what I heard about the possible special assessment in La Perla, it will dramatically improve the common areas and hallways. My opinion, that with low labor and material prices now and if the work is bid out and done right, it will improve the value of all units since the hallways look cheap cheap cheap right now… I expect more from an apartment…..the intercoastal rentals (or what ever that place is called on the north side of the 163rd bridge) looks much nicer. Hence, La Perla needs to catch up to rental buildings. Just my opinion.
Thank you louix, I have been saying that we should just let it all fall and get it over with also. At least someone agrees with me.
«The 1/1 price at Four Seasons is striking.»
Looking at the pictures again and considering this is a mere 611 feet, I am thinking that this mislabeled as a 1/1. This is most likely a studio, not a real 1 bedroom/1 bathroom apartment.
RT, regarding deficits. What will it take to convince you? What is it you don’t understand? Growing deficit == more money in our hands. shrinking deficit === less money in our hands. Those are facts. So why are deficits be bad?
bubbleRefuge – Sorry, can’t entertain tin foil hat theories…We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Anyone know how Ten Museum is coming along? Has the SPA been completed? Is there still valet parking only? Have they cleaned up the overall look of the building?
RT, Can’t agree to disagree. You are wrong. The economy will be humming if we get a large enough fiscal stimulus package to restore output back to full capacity. It has always worked and will always work if its big enough. And if it is bigger than that, housing will come back as well. Its the correct policy measure for the current conditions.
bubbleRefuge – Worked well for Zimbabwe. I’m sure we can put all those wall streeters, finance, insurance, and real estate ex-employees to work building roads and bridges. Sounds great. Oh, and when we start to borrow the third trillion….who will lend it? Just curious.
bubblerefuge, I can’t stay silent on the sidelines here. I completely agree with RT, your theory of printing more money is like the wall street’s fancy calculations for returns. We all saw how that turned out. some things should just be left for logic.
Gerardo #16
Was at Brickell lunchtime and noticed a very HIGH % of the windows at the Plaza SOUTH building had window coverings in the sw and nw corners, and maybe a bit less but still meaningful amount in the center of the building .
Saw the NORTH building but from a lesser vantage point because only the narrow ends of the structure are visible from brickell as it lays out with most units facing north or south, and a relatively hi% of NW units have coverings.
IF the theory that one spends the $ to cover the windows when a unit is purchased for occupancy or a hoped- for rental by an owner or when the developer has a tenant to rent unsold units to, then anecdotally the building seems busy and occupied.
On the other hand I noticed from the metromover that a much smaller % of windows is covered at Wind by Neo -which some might now call “le Grand Pete”‘ sort of foul wind -and not many adorn the south-view side of Met 1 .
Anecdotal make of it what you wish.
Raffi, Please don’t stay silent. I’m fairly well read on this stuff and you might learn something. Zimbabwe and many emerging market countries have experienced hyperinflation because they often borrow in currency they cannot print.
We never do that. There is a point where too much fiscal policy causes inflation, but we are far far far from it. As stated before. Durring world war II we ran deficits 7 times larger than today and inflation was held in check ( albeit there was rationing). But everyone had a job and GDP nearly doubled from the previous depression lows.
RT, The US GOV DOES NOT BORROW TO SPEND. As stated before. It issues bonds to drain reserves so as to hit interest rate targets. This is a common misconception.
In fact the US can and should get rid of treasury bonds and just pay interest on reserves. Then nobody would be able to say we borrowed anything.
bubbleRefuge – The fed govt should just issue each citizen $10 Million in cash then we’d all be rich. Gosh, why haven’t they thought of that sooner???
Bubblerefuge, I am no expert on this and it seems that you are a pretty knowlegable guy but I don’t see how spending trillions of dollars, on top of the huge deficit we have, on top of our accumalating monthly deficit can help anything. Logic tells me that if we keep printing money at ridiculous rates then our money becomes worth less, inflation. Now multiple this in the trillions and I don’t see how hyperinflation can be avoided. Either way I think the govt. is doing all this on purpose so that our dollar DOES become worthless and they can therefore wipe out the unpayable national debt.
The fed govt is going to screw over any housing fix by allowing mortgage principal to be written down by bankruptcy judges. Simple fix, the lenders will stop lending money to buy homes…or of course mortgage rates will have to go up to take account of the write down risk or even larger down payments. Banks already have an incentive to do what is most cost effective. This is nothing more than letting deadbeats get free equity. It is absolutely sickening and will one more step to the ruin of America. You have to give back the house if you can’t afford it.
bubbleRefuge you said:
“Growing deficit == more money in our hands.”
I don’t understand? Is the government going to increase my pay? I just don’t see it putting money in my pocket. I am no economist or expert by any means, but People have complained about GWB in regards to the growing deficit and now we OK with it?
I agree with RT, give us all 10MM and be done with it. 😉
As I mentioned before, this blog is full of amateur economists !
Please go back to the main agenda where you can provide more profound information for us.
Raffi, most politicians and even members of the financial press don’t understand economics so don’t worry about it. Yes if we print money at ridiculous rates there will be inflation. But what is that point when it starts causing inflation? Can you tell me? Can Obama? Can Benanke? History can tell us: Again, we had a deficit 7 times larger than today in the world war 2 era with no significant inflation. Japan had a deficit back in the 90’s twice our size with no inflation ( in fact they were battling deflation). Inflation from too much money is caused when people have saved enough, are not worried about their jobs, and begin spending. This is not happening right now. In Economics this is called aggregate demand. Aggregate demand is correlated to how much money people have and their willingness to spend it.
Miami2009, the government could give you a raise tomorrow if they instituted a an indefinite payroll tax holiday. This would give you a 7.5% payraise and your employer 7.5% less in costs. This would put more money in your pocket. It would help people pay their mortgages and cars. It would stimulate aggregate demand in the economy leading to more jobs. The stock market would rally by 20% the moment they announced it. People complain about the deficit because they are in a the old-school
gold standard model where all money had to backed by gold. In that model it was expensive to run deficits because you had to dig for the gold. That’s why we haven’t had and will not have any more depressions unless policy-makers are dumb enough to raise taxes.
you can read about all of this at http://www.moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/soft-currency-economics/
There are some heavy-hitters on that blog but they are nice and will answer your questions.
The biggest challenge the economy faces is ignorance about deficits and unfortunately you can count the current president among the ignoramuses.
amateur economists and professional economists have about the same predictive capabilities-50/50. Same for the meteorologists.
that said, a payroll tax comes at a cost. our largest liability is medicare and social security. not funding these two ponzi schemes without declaring a reduction in future benefits, to me, would amount to treason against our country. but i would not want to stand between you and the baby boomers if you declared that reduction in entitlements.
bubbleRefuge, Thanks for the link. I will certainly read it. I need to get my head out of the IT world once in a while anyway!
May have a shot at a unit for $160 sq ft, nice newer building. If holding for at least 5 years, think this would be a reasonable move to make? Not looking to make money, just to beat my rent and not lose anything in the near future. I know we have bears and bulls here, just trying to gauge when might be a good time to make a move. I imagine $125 would be the lowest prices will realistically fall for a while, so $160 may not be a bad point.
miami2009, LOL , I work in IT world myself.
gables, the whole point of my arguments( and others @ http://www.moslereconomics.com) are that governments who issue currency can fund anything they want ad-infinitem with the only cost being inflation at some point which we have never been close too. If it would make you happy then the plan can have the treasury credit our entitlement accounts, just to keep the SS books looking good. Dealing with inflation is an ez problem to fix: raise taxes.
bubbleRefuge – Odd how we had high inflation and high taxes in late 1970’s…. You confuse managing the money supply with what the money supply represents – a store of value. Oh well.
Here is a good video on gdp and inflation.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-16-fuzzy-numbers
A dollar bills only value is to retire a tax liability. A dollar bill is a transferable tax credit. Its the only thing the government will accept for payment. Taxes drive money.
The inflation of the 70’s was cost push inflation, that is, it was caused by high oil prices for which then no substitutes existed. Not demand-pull inflation caused by excess money. Lost of energy facilities were powered by oil back then. When we got onto natural gas for energy production that broke demand for oil and oil prices came down and inflation abated.
Once again, when the private sector has equity ( not debt ) , demand /output / GDP increase and are sustainable. The only way for the private sector to get equity in a macro-economic sense is for the government to spend more money
or tax less of it away. Private sector equity should be targeted by government policy to the point where slack in the economy disappears ( that’s where inflation begins).
bubbleRefuge – Sorry, but I don’t need the fed govt, let alone the U.S., to create wealth. I think this discussion belongs on another blog…try this argument on calculatedriskblog.com … I’m sure they will love it…..
Absolutely agree with JL ‘s assessment:
“The Ace, your past 2 posts are misleading. Unit #2012 Marina Blue was part of the 60 unit bulk sale to Welcome Bay, and so #2012 was not an individual distressed sale that a person could work the phones really hard to find. It may eventually come to be for individuals, but just not at this moment. Also, reading inbetween the lines from the DBR link, I don’t think one can put much faith in the pricings for each individual unit. I’m guessing a sale was worked for the 60 units in bulk, then prices were loosely slapped on a unit-by-unit basis for accounting/tax reasons at the closing.”
and gables:
“amateur economists and professional economists have about the same predictive capabilities-50/50. Same for the meteorologists.”
RENTER TOM thank you very much for your valuable info. on La Perla.I am looking to buy and will be checking and investigating this building very closely.Another thank you to Lara for your comments. Thank you .. onemoretime.
Surely the Ten Museum Clinique La Prairie SPA is done by now. Its only been, what 4-5 years since it was announced? I bet the Michael Capponi VIP lounge looks good. Everyone must be getting VIP tables and red carpet treatment all over south beach.
GENERALMAGIC #20 Comment.
I found your comments very interesting since the Waverely is one of the buildings my broker is recomending to me in which to buy a unit. I would be very interested to get the inside scoop on the building. Also, I find RENTERTOM’s comments very informative and anything you could add about the Waverly is also appreciated. I am looking to be ready to buy in late Summer.
Hey Guys,
Dollar might crash soon, since we are so anxious to print a Trillion new ones. Your underwater condos might actually turn to gold.
Please email me with best buildings, best deals in or near South Beach. I am in NYC and need to buy something ASAP. Interested in highest quality, best finishes, western views. Thanks and good luck! Donzi
Gaelgha,
The Waverly is a great building and in a great location. There are going to be a lot of foreclosures and short sales in the next year. Rentals are already down as a one bedroom just came on the market for $1,700 which is very low. Maintenance is somewhat high and I would definitely make sure to see if there are going to be an future assessments and to see the financials on the building. You want to make sure owners are paying the monthly dues. These are just my opinions.
Gaelgha,, I believe Generalmagic’s comments were a little of the cuff and may be a bit to negative. I too live in the Waverly and in the last five years have done the majority of sales and rentals. I am not one of those Agents that blows smoke up your A$$ to blind you from reality or to get business. I am very honest and very real about the market and the Waverly.. Waverly right now is like all other buildings and rents are down from where they were a few months back. Consumer spending is down, credit is gone and unemployment rising. Anyone who has not woke up to that reality and has not priced their rentals or sales acordingly is just an idiot.
Waverly is renting, in fact quite a few units have rented in the last month and weeks. Although down about 10% from where it was only six months ago that is the reality on the entire market and not just Waverly.
Waverly sales too are still moving. In fact two units in the last month sold for higher than I expected and they were not short sales.
Going back a couple years I was very negative on the buildings BOD and Management. I believe they failed to act as the market started to slip and there were signs that would ultimatly cost the Association. Since then things have really turned around and the BOD has taken a very proactive, a before the curve approach to market conditions and things are looking up.
For two years I sold so many units at Waverly, getting my clients out before and while the values evaporated. Now I feel there are actual BUYS and have two pending contracts for buyers.
Out of all of the buildings on South Beach I believe you can get the best bang for your buck at Waverly. Location, waterfront, newer (2001) construction, four blocks from Lincoln Road, financially secure and improved managment. There is not one comparable building that has all of that for the price value you get.
Where the Managment and FBI failed in the past with those who bought with FRAUD, let it be your advantage to buy a short sale at a great price.
Good Luck
Lucas,
I just stumbled on “recent sales” link that you have for all the buildings. Is it a recent addition or have I missed it all along? That is the single most exciting and definite information. I couldn’t have enough of it. Thanks for the “addition”. You should have made a big deal about its introduction when you did it!
In 1800, please change the Sq.footage of 1409 to 1154. It is skewing the sold price per sf.
In MB, the best line (08) closed for $469/sf as late as 10/23/08, well after the the whole economic shit hit the fan. That makes me vindicated a bit that no matter what , the best lines, best views in water front buildings cannot be had for a song.
Generalmagic,
Thanks for the info on the Waverely. I thought of renting a unit there for a brief time before buying. That way I would have a better feel for the community since I live out of town. Does it allow for short-term rentals? Any idea on how I could find out?
Mr. Waverly,
3 Q’s.
1) What in your opinion will be the lowest possible sale price for 01 line in the next 1 year?
2) Are they going to let the outside public walk on the waterfront? They seemed to have erected a fence in front of the pool. BTW is the pool heated now?
3) Are they going through a major survey? They are ripping up the Balcony railings as I can see.
tks
Mr. Waverly,
Thanks for your reply. Since I live out of town, any thoughts on how I could find an honestand trusworthy agent who would look out for my interests in the purchase process?
Gaelgha, call the Waverly Condo Management directly and they will refer you to a cooperating Agent that knows the building and the rules to get you in if possible.
AJ,, don’t put me on the spot. Ok here is the truth and nothing but the truth.
1. I believe there will be a 01 going between $400K and $450K soon. After that unless there is a short sale that comes along it should not go lower that than. I have reviewed the delinquency on maintenance of the last couple years and there have only been a few (3) that have gone into serious delinquency. Many of you probably saw 2501 go for $330 something recently. I can tell you the Agent was an absolute incompetent, lazy Batch. She was assigned the unit, knew nothing about the building and priced it the same as low floor units selling on the street side of the building. I personally had two buyers who would have paid $100 K over the price she accepted. I guess Wells Fargo got screwed on the deal for having an incompetent Agent.
2. the bay walk is a done deal. The Waverly recently spent about $800K to make repairs to the sea wall and has since built out the bay walk. The fence is up and the walk is open.
Really,, it is not that bad because there are very few who go to the park and because the walk abruptly stops about 150 in, no one really walks in there. It is also only open from about 8am until sunset.
3. the balcony railings were reset into a new mortor mix. Whatever there were set into when the building was first built needed to be replaced. The building has also undergone some concrete restoration and is now being painted.
Let me add that the new members of the BOD are proactive, younger, agressive bulldogs and get things done.
Unit owners that have fallen into default are getting kicked out.. The Association is taking possession on the units and renting them until the slow a$$ lenders and courts finally get around to foreclosing on them.
2009 should be a rough year for many buildings but the Waverly has been the most aggressive and should come out with positive results.
AJ, or anyone-How do you get the recent sales link?
Mr Waverly,
Thanks for taking the time out and answering the questions. Very informative.
gaelgha, You said “Since I live out of town, any thoughts on how I could find an honest and trustworthy agent who would look out for my interests in the purchase process?”
If you are in the market for a unit at Waverly, go with Mr. Waverly. He seems to know that building extremely well and knows what he is talking about.
Go to the list of condos for sale then on the top left corner you will see recent sales……what an amazing piece of info.
Joe,
I think Lucas has to make that link more prominent. It is a very valuable and useful link. presently it is hidden and need some navigation to find. Here is how to find it:
1. In the condo listings, click on any area. For example Miami Downtown.
2. Click on the building you like to know for example Marina Blue Sales or Rentals.
3. Once you click sales you will find on top links to recent sales and rentals. If you click the rentals you will find on top links to recent sales and sales.
Yeah, you can almost miss it!! I think Lucas should put the recent sales link right alongside sales and rentals links under the building name. What say.
Yes, it is an amazing piece of info. Asking prices are just that – asking. But this is definite and set in stone information of how much a flat is sold for. I love the listing price and selling price and number of days it was on the market, closing date etc.
Even though RE junkies can always find this info, it is extremely useful for the layman to see everything in one useful table with out having to search county records.
Who needs an appraiser and comps when you can just go to Lucas’s blog!
Thanks again Mr Lechuga for another great public service.
the recent sales link seems to have been there for a little while, not sure when it was introduced. But i have noticed it finally has updated info-for a while seemed to only have data through about august 08. i have noticed quite a few sales in brickell at under $250 sf, and many under $200 sf. but i will not argue with AJ on some of the nicer lines out there-they have held up some reasonable value. but it will become more clear between the haves and have nots on pricing in the future. the have not units will definitely lose value as time goes by. but these will become great units for bargain hunters looking to buy at or below rental costs.
Can someone dig up some dirt on flat no. 2607 in 50 Biscayne, sold for 270K, which is 8K more than listing price after being on the market for 66 days?
That puts the price per SF at $386 for a West View (No water).
It was also closed on Nov 21st, well well after the meltdown. Fraud or just stupidity?
This is too much fun.
Unless the list price and sale price got inadvertently swapped.
When I said Too Much fun, I was talking about the recent sales link, not about the 50B flat.
Even if we assume that the selling price and listing price got switched, that would still be $375/sf for a West View? Why? Who would pay that kind of money in late November 08 for a non water view flat in 50B? Don’t they read this blog? Can’t wait to find out.
Guys please don’t publish any names or addresses when you do find out about this flat.
I just want to know if this transaction is for real. If it is real, then there are still tons of clueless suckers out there.
Gaelgha
Lucas is still a Realtor, so why would you be seeking recommendations for a trust worthy agent on his blog?
RenterTom, what atre your thoughts on the Beach Club? I know its in Hallandale Beach, but not far from where you are and just wanted to know your thoughts on the building and area? Thanks
daniel – Sorry I haven’t been in the Beach Club. I was told a lot of rentals and the place got run down real fast as a result. Do your homework esp. regarding the HOA and who is paying dues, # of rentals, rental policy, etc. It is a large complex!
A reminder of the “boom days”. I found Jesse Ottley’s “RESERVATION AGREEMENT” for 500 Brickell. Is was circulated by him in 2004; actual sales did not start until early-2005. Going to forward it to the state AG with a complaint letter. I hope the biatch reads this blog. Gourge should teach these hacks to “leave no paper trail”……..
****************************************************************
In-House Agent Jesse Ottley (305)502-6651
Up-Sheet #
RESERVATION AGREEMENT
TRG-500 Brickell Two, Ltd., a Florida limited partnership (“Seller”) acknowledges receiving this date from _____________________________________ (“Purchaser”) a reservation deposit (the “Reservation Deposit”) in the amount of ________________________ Dollars ($_____________) which shall be payable to, and held by, Chicago Title Insurance Company, as escrow agent, as required by Section 718.502(2)(c), Florida Statutes. The Reservation Deposit expresses Purchaser’s interest in purchasing Unit No. TBD (the “Unit”) in the proposed condominium to be located at approximately 550 Brickell Avenue, Miami, Florida, 33131, to be known as 500 Brickell Condominium (West) (as same may be renamed, the “Condominium”). The purchase price and all other transactional expenses will be determined by Seller in the formal contract for purchase and sale submitted to Purchaser (the “Contract”).
Purchaser will have ten (10) days after Seller delivers, or otherwise makes available to Purchaser, Seller’s formal Contract in which to sign and return the Contract to Seller together with the amount, if any, that the initial deposit required by the Contract exceeds the Reservation Deposit. If Purchaser does not sign and return the Contract (with the balance of the initial Contract deposit, if any) within this ten (10) day period, this Reservation Agreement will be cancelled automatically and the Reservation Deposit, together with any interest thereon, will be refunded to Purchaser. Furthermore, Purchaser may cancel this Reservation Agreement by notifying Seller or the Escrow Agent in a signed writing at any time before Purchaser signs the Contract, whereupon the Reservation Deposit, together with any interest thereon, will be promptly refunded to Purchaser without qualification. Before both Purchaser and Seller sign and deliver the Contract, Seller may cancel this Agreement for any reason whatsoever, by giving written notice thereof to Purchaser and Escrow Agent, in which event the Reservation Deposit, together with any interest thereon, shall be returned to Purchaser, and thereafter Purchaser shall have no claim of any kind against Seller.
The Reservation Deposit, must be payable to, and will be held in escrow by, Chicago Title Insurance Company, with offices at 2701 Gateway Drive, Pompano Beach, FL 33069, in accordance with an escrow letter agreement between Seller and the Escrow Agent dated June 4, 2004, which letter agreement is incorporated herein by this reference (the “Escrow Agreement”). Purchaser must receive a receipt for the Reservation Deposit from the Escrow Agent. Control of the Reservation Deposit shall be governed hereby and by the Escrow Agreement.
Seller may name another escrow agent to hold the Reservation Deposit (in which case the Reservation Deposit will be transferred to that other agent upon Seller’s written direction) as long as it is an escrow agent authorized to act as such by the Florida Condominium Act (Chapter 718, Florida Statutes). If Purchaser timely signs and returns the Contract to Seller and Seller then signs it and returns a fully signed copy of same to Purchaser, the Reservation Deposit will be turned over to the escrow agent named in the Contract (if other than the Escrow Agent) and credited against the initial deposit required under the Contract. The Escrow Agent named above will not release the Reservation Deposit except (i) as provided in this paragraph; (ii) as stated in the Escrow Agreement, or (iii) to Purchaser, if Seller or Purchaser cancels this Agreement.
The Reservation Deposit (together with Reservation Deposits of other proposed purchasers in the Condominium) will be placed, within seven (7) business days after receipt by Escrow Agent of the Reservation Deposit and an original of Internal Revenue Service Form W-8 or W-9, as applicable, signed by the Purchaser in an interest bearing account of a banking institution, the deposits of which are insured by an agency of the United States government. Once receiving the W-8 or W-9, interest on the Reservation Deposit shall be paid or credited to Purchaser (and prior to receipt, the Reservation Deposit shall be placed either in a non-interest bearing account or in an interest bearing account with interest accruing to Seller). Interest on deposits required by the Contract will be governed by the Contract and Seller may credit interest on the Reservation Deposit accruing to Purchaser to the Contract deposit if Purchaser enters into the Contract.
Purchaser recognizes that this Reservation Agreement is a reservation solely with respect to a proposed condominium; and, accordingly, this Reservation Agreement is not an agreement to sell the Unit, nor does it confer any lien upon or interest in the Unit or on the proposed Condominium property. Seller may take any action and record any document pertaining to the Unit and the Condominium property as Seller may wish.
Prior to entering into a binding purchase agreement or lease agreement for more than five (5) years, Seller is obligated to file with the Division of Florida Land Sales, Condominiums and Mobile Homes all documents required to be filed with it by Chapter 718, Florida Statutes and its rules and regulations. If Seller asks Purchaser to enter into the Contract or a lease agreement for more than five (5) years, Seller also is obligated to deliver to Purchaser a prospectus containing those documents at that time.
Purchaser’s name, address and telephone number are more particularly set forth below and the information provided below is true and correct.
EXECUTED as of the ____ day of ______________________, 200__.
“PURCHASER” “SELLER”
TRG-500 Brickell Two, Ltd., a Florida limited partnership
By:
PROPOSED PURCHASER Name:
Title:
PROPOSED PURCHASER
Name:
Local Address:
City: State:
Country: Zip Code:
Local Phone: Local Telecopy:
Home Address:
City: State:
Country: Zip Code:
Phone: Business Phone:
E-Mail: Telecopy No.:
Bank Reference:
Account No.: Branch:
Broker Information:
Agent Name: Branon A. Edwards / Jelena Panfilova
Company: Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc
Telephone # 786-417-4910 Fax # 786-524-5747
Email address: [email protected]
# of Bedrooms Model Price Range Floor Range
1st Choice
2nd Choice
3rd Choice
*******************************************************************
Why are maint fees so high at the Waverly? $646/mo for an 806 sq/ft apt seems quite high. Is this a mistake?
Daniel, My mom lives at the beach club and she loves it. But like all bubble era luxury condo’s there are a mountain of foreclosures. Amenities there are great. Pool is huge and awesome. Gym is 0n par with commercial gyms. I do think the beach club will ultimately “make it” as seemingly plenty of affluent people actually do live there. I think she pays about 800 for HOA. Great place to live, but not a great investment.
The recent sales link has been there for about 6 months I believe. I thought I mentioned in a post around that time when a bunch of updates were made. I do agree with you all, however, that it should be more prominent. I will discuss it with my website developer. I think a recent rentals link would be nice as well.
Recent rentals please!!!! Asking price and final lease price if possible.
Thanks!
Hi All,
I am a contract holder at Icon Brickell, due to close withing the next month. I’ve been unemployed for a few month now, and won’t be able to get any financing. Is there a way to get out of the contact, because I didn’t get approved for financing????? My other option is to cancel, the contact and find an attorney, and hope to recoup some of my down payment. Any suggestions on the attorneys who are familiar, and dealing with the Icon Project, or any other Related Projects.
Thanks for your help!!!!!
Unemployed,
This is what is supposed to happen. You don’t show up at closing, they assign “new” closing a couple of months later, you don’t show up at that and they are supposed to put you in default. You go through the default “cure” period and theny they are supposed to give you a Release Letter which you and they endorse. That is supposed to get you 25% of your deposit back. (Key words: “supposed to”)
First you will not hear anything when you don’t show up at closings. (They act like thay hope you died or went back to Argentina) Second, it will be like getting three root canals to get them to give you a default letter to start your 20-day clock. It took MONTHS at that sh*t-hole of theirs across the street. That is for openers.
FOUR MONTHS and 10 “It’s on my desk” or “in the mail”(s) later, still have not got it. Even if they send them out, I bet they lack their endorsements and three months from now they will say Office Depot is out of BIC pens. No endorsement, no check. No checks issued, no need to pay construction loan.
If ever issued, the escrow check will probably be endorsed by “U.R. Stuck”.
All of this BS for the CONTRACTED return of 25% deposits in a low-rent dump. Think of what you are in for at those high-end phallic symbols across the street. Their “end game” seems to be, IMHO, NOT to break the escrows as that would me the construction loan is due and payable. One of ICON’s biggest lenders: LEHMAN BROTHERS!
My advice: START CALLING LAWYERS NOW AND FIND A GOOD ONE WHO KNOWS THE PROJECT. You will spend two years, whether or not you sue them or wait for a partial refund.
Does anyone know what happened to Carbonell unit 2502. It was listed for 325k back in August. it has been off MLS for a while. Was it sold? How much did it sell for? I didn’t see it listed in the recently sold page for the building. Thx.
In one of the buildings I went through this procedure of partial refund where I made a very poor decision of investingin in 2005. It actually went very smoothly ( as smoothly as it can go due the fact that you loose 75% of money deposited). I thought about hiring an attorney but then decided against it. It also might depend on whom you are dealing with. It took me about 1.5 months to get my 25% back.
I bought in Marina Blue and now I am reading they sold for $200 PSF !! WTF?????
This is outrageous!
Class action lawsuit by the owners??
Lucas……your readers should be more alert.I have been enjoying the valuable info. that you have been posting since day one.( s0ld info).A lot of bloggers are more interested in what ACE AJ MARK and the rest of the gang has to say.PAY ATTENTION TO LUCAS!!!!! THIS IS HIS BLOG
MB,
I think that you can investigate it. In one of the buildings in Miami Beach where I have an apartment the developer had an unsold inventory of about 50 apartments. I know that the developer needs to get rid of these apartments. Obviously he could have sold them for much less than what we purchased our condos for(BTW since we got into contracts at the beginning of 2003 our prices were actually pretty reasonable and now when rented my apartment produces only $300 month of negative cash flowwhich is not bad in this day and time. The building was built in 2006). So a friend of mine who is a very experienced realtor in Miami an an investor in this building as well told me that if he does that the rest of the owners are going to sue him for making the value of our apartments much lower.
It never got to that point though. The developer is trying to sell his inventory for reasonable prices and finance the deals himself. End of story.
Does anyone know if the units sold in bulk at Marina Bue are finished?
can they rent them out now – floors windows and closets finished?
if not, they have to spend another $4o psf to rent them.
not such a great deal
Wow, the link has been there for 6 months (gables did mentioned that he has seen it for a while). But most people missed it as it takes a bit of navigation to get there and easy to miss. Giving the link a prominent place is a good idea.
The idea of recent rentals is a fantastic idea. I did not know past rentals can be tabulated as it is not the kind of information that is maintained by county records or some such. If Lucas can compile and have that kind of info on his site, it will become unstoppable.
In all fairness, Lucas should charge people to get this kind of information. Alternately, to keep this information free and also to show appreciation for Lucas’s hardwork, readers of this blog should hire him as their agent when they are ready to sell/buy/rent. What say people?
MB,
We all weighed on this subject (Bulk Sales). Including the housing bears JL and RT.
Bulk sales mean nothing. It is transfer of ownership from one developer to another or another fatcat. They were not sold retail.
In fact that guy Ace is so full of it, he is trying to twist, contort the truth to say MB units sold for cheap. It is a total lie.
This is when the bears can open the bubbly and celebrate. Not otherwise – When a retail buyer can pick up a flat in an open market for pennies on the dollar, not just a foreclosure or a bulk sale.
I don’t know much about other interior buildings on mainland Miami. But I know something about the waterfront buildings with units facing the water. When the asking prices on these drop to $325-$350 and the final selling price is $300-$325 is when I say, OK you guys win. But that situation is very elusive. May or may not even happen. Don’t talk about bulk sales or foreclosures to drum up your point of view. That would be like an ostrich burying its head in sand.
So if you are worried that MB or 50B East facing flats or 900B flats are now worth $200/sf, nothing is farther from the truth. In 50B, West facing units are still asking for $400+ per SF! Some are buying them too, read my #107 (must be those that do not read this blog).
The people on this blog are very savvy. But for every one smart guy on this blog there are 10,000 simple people out there who still have no idea. And this market is 90% perception and 10% hard facts.
Miami2009
Waverly maintenance includes reserves (about$100 per unit), extended cable/Internet package with DVR (about $80 per month), payment for loan for recent restoration / painting of building (not sure of amount) and finally a 15% increase over actual expenses to cover “bad debt”. The actual maintenance came down for 2009 and now payment for the 1/1 it should be a few dollars over $600. Still that is not a number that anyone is happy with. I believe now that the BOD and Budget Committee are seriously reviewing all costs we should see maintenance actually lowering.
I personally feel maintenance is to high in ALL buildings and that in the next couple years we are going to see new, professional Management companies forming that will address the matter. What Association wouldn’t want a fresh new, professional management company that promises to trim 10 – 15% of cost and then cap those costs over the years?
I think the days are numbered for those Management companies that have failed to keep costs in line with inflation.
Lara said: “In one of the buildings I went through this procedure of partial refund where I made a very poor decision of investingin in 2005. It actually went very smoothly ( as smoothly as it can go due the fact that you loose 75% of money deposited). I thought about hiring an attorney but then decided against it. It also might depend on whom you are dealing with. It took me about 1.5 months to get my 25% back.”
Well, glad you were aboard the “stupid party” of 2005. I disagree that it is a matter of “whom you were dealing with”. It may be more of a matter of falling dominoes or, God forbid, a lack of cash. The following is from today’s S.F. Business Journal:
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http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2009/01/05/daily46.html?ana=e_du_pap
Thursday, January 8, 2009, 3:38pm EST
Related Group sells 101 units for $27M
South Florida Business Journal – by Brian Bandell
In its second major bulk sale of 2008, the Related Group sold 101 condos in its 457-unit New Harbour House in Bal Harbor for $27 million.
The simultaneous transactions were recorded Dec. 31 in Miami-Dade County Circuit Court.
Units in the beachfront condo conversion sold for an average of $268,000, or about half of what Related sold 276 units for in 2007.
With the clock ticking on a $173 million mortgage that Related Group’s TRG Harbour House signed with Wachovia Bank in late 2006, selling units quickly could be a priority.
A Related spokeswoman did not immediately return a call and e-mail for comment.
The buyer is Hollywood-based HH Condominium Investments, which lists former Miami Beach City Manager Christina Cuervo as registered agent and Thomas F. Daly as president. Daly also heads the Miami Beach-based Development Group of South Florida.
The bulk sale was done in conjunction with a first money mortgage in which Related loaned HH Condo Investments $7.27 million, representing about 27 percent of the amount it paid for the 101 units.
The agreement included a price target the borrower would have to meet for each unit to secure a mortgage release from Related. The release totaled $26 million – $1 million less than what HH Condo Investments paid for the units.
With bank funding for bulk condo purchases scarce and appraisals difficult, the financing must have been needed to make the deal in New Harbour House work, Condo Vultures Realty CEO Peter Zalewski said.
“The buyer must have had Related in an interesting position and the buyer went in for the kill,” he said. “Even if the buyer can’t resell them, then their exposure isn’t that great because of the mortgage.”
Related Group CEO Jorge Perez helped close another bulk deal in one of his buildings last year. He launched a buying fund that made two deals in the 528-unit 50 Biscayne, which Related built in partnership with Atlanta-based Cousins Properties. That bulk deal sold out the project and closed out its loan.
The 50 Biscayne buying fund, Lubert-Adler Partners, paid $6.1 million in May for 26 units – an average of $236,294 a unit – and $30.3 million for 120 units – an average of $252,504 a unit.
The two bulk sales are a sign that Related Group wants to get its money out of older projects – even if it means breaking even – and concentrate on its signature projects: Icon Brickell and 500 at Brickell, Zalewski said.
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“The strategy,” he said, “is self-preservation.” Related should name their buildings after cities, ICON Brickell might be more aptly renamed: Stalingrad I, II, and III.
AJ,
I agree with you regarding using Lucas as an agent. Right now i am in a particular situation so i may use somebody else, but it is for property that Lucas does not focus on anyways. But if I look to buy in the area of Brickell or downtown, i will most definately use him, as his info will have been a primary source for my selection. fair is fair-will contact you when the time comes Lucas.
I guess i noticed the recent sale button a while ago, because i was using the rental data to define the new market rates. since the buttons are side by side the link was not a surprise. the rental data helps define both where rents are at as well as where sale price and carrying costs will settle.
AJ,
You are right to not read too much into bulk sales, because most folks cannot access those deals. but do not ignore foreclosures. these are the market makers today because they are coming to dominate the numbers. list prices by individual owners in new buildings are very biased. they cannot afford to offer prices that sell, because the owners do not have the cash to cover the difference between sale and mortgage. these units will become the foreclosures of the future, unless this silly mortgage principal write down law goes into effect. but foreclosure action is where the true market is for all but the most exclusive lines. its kind of playing a game of chicken between cash holders and debtors-but i can outlast most debtors without government intervening.
Un-Related,
Good information, but I think we’re all a little tired of the bitching and moaning…..we all know you got screwed by Related, ok? How many units did you buy and then didn’t get your promised water view? How much money did you lose again? We ALL know the story……telling us again for the UMPTEENTH time really is unnecessary. Please save us all with the whining please, even your name is based in a negative. Let’s try and stick with the facts, ok? Your posts (most of the time are very informative) but the endless bitching is getting very old. Noone wants to listen to a complainer. Its almost as bad as hearing Renter Tom proclaiming to the world how good it is to rent…..yawn!
Now….who wants to make a bet that I’m going to get bashed by Un-Related? Hint…watch his next post. (and no, I don’t work for Related and never have)
AJ, I was wondering what you think of Quantum on the Bay, right next to you. How do you compare 1800 with Quantum? Do you feel one has better finishes than the other? Is one project considered more upscale than the other, or are they comparable? Have you been to the 1800 pool deck or gym?
BEACH CLUB
somebody asked about it, if you are looking for constant movement then its the place to be. There are way too many units, theres people all over the place at all times, feels more like a hotel on a busy summer day. The valet takes somewhere between way too much time and forever to get your car. Has lots of amenities (most of which you’ll never use) and for that reason has high HOA fees. You can find better deals in better buildings, I’d stay away from the beach club. Unless your 25 and full of cash.
I do not understand why so many wannabe investors on this blog with scarce solvency want to participate in the RE market.
As they should know, the RE market got more and more hazardous these days.
To be able to carry eventual lossess or temporary underperformances, one should have deep pockets !
When you operate on a cash basis you strike better deals and you can weather storms without going under.
People without a strong financial background should refrain from the RE business, they will get hurt.
They had better save with a traditional bank account for some years until they can put down 25%, better would be 35%.
The highly leveraged days are over and for good.
I’m glad visionary knows so much about all of us. Good thing you are here to save the day. You have know idea who has “scarce solvency.” Oh and thanks for the reminder that the RE market got more hazardous. pointless post.
Joe,
Quantum is a more upscale because of its architecture, 1800 a little more profane.
But 1800 provides better value in regard of utilization (better cost-value ratio).
As an investment I would consider that a Quantum condo has a higher resale potential due to its better brand perception.
I agree, everyone should use Lucas as an agent. He could make us log in to get this info and he gives it out for free and without spamming you to death. That shows what a straight-shooter he is. He’s very generous with his knowledge and expertise…
I think that 1800 and Quantum are very comparable. It’s the matter of personal taste and individual floor plans including views. The location of both of them is great and both of them have the same energy of a younger crowd though there is a certain not prevailing percentage of older people.
Unrelatred,
Thanks for the reply. I’m going to start looking for a good attorney. Any recommendations are welcome….I was trying to call the Icon office few weeks ago, the Sales girls Ina and and Maria are always BUSY, never aswer the phone. They hired a new girl as their “assistant” to handle all the questions/problems. I think they are just hiding…..
Does anyone know how many closing have actually already occured at Icon????
Joe,
Visionary (#135) and Lara (#137) summed it up best. They left me nothing else to add. Both buildings are an excellent choice. See them both and pick out the one you like most.
Hi all,
I am an economist living in Europe and one of those passive readers on this blog but I will try to get more active. A few weeks ago a bought a property in Germany and now I am looking into buy-to-let in a prime location. However, I do not know that much about the market in Miami and it was 15 years since I was there last time so I will sit on the sidelines for a while and research a bit more.
I appricate all the comments from you who are in-the-knows and a big thanks to Lucas of course.
Kim
Mr. Waverly, thanks for the info. I did look at a couple of units at this building, but at the time they were overpriced. The building is one of the nicer more affordable (newer) buildings on the beach. Waverly and Yacht Club were definitely possibilities when we were considering a unit in SOBE. Did not like the Floridian. The prices, however, made us look over to the Park West/Pace or Brickell area, as at the time we felt we could get into something newer for less money. Probably still the case?
Do a public records search on the Waverly. Now you will now why the building had to finance the renovations. No way in hell the unit owners could cover the assessment. How many years was that debt for?
Wild Bill
Unless renovatons cost under $1,000 per unit most, if not all buildings will finance the project. The recent work done on the building was expensive and partly due to the half ass job done while constructed. I believe there will be many buildings built in the last decade that face the same issues. Welcome to Miami..
The work also included an $800K + job on the seawall and other interior improvments.
In all the project should break down to about $10K per unit. A lot but those improvments will add value.
Financially the building has had to cope with unit owner defaulting on maintenance. But overall the financials are looking good, with close to $1,000,000. cash in the bank between reserves and other accounts.
The year ahead is concerning for most buildings but with the right controls and management Waverly should be fine.
Is Carbonell unit 701 back on the market? I see on MLS for 295K.
[…] of you may remember unit 701 at Carbonell which appeared in an earlier post entitled “Top 5 Distressed Condo Sales in December 2008“. The 1 bedroom/1.5 bath condo with 1,031 square feet of interior closed on December 19, […]