30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Dips Below 6.50% for the First Time Since October 2024

In a significant development for the housing market, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped below 6.50%—a threshold not seen in nearly a year. According to Mortgage News Daily’s daily index, this is the first time rates have fallen under 6.50% since October 3, 2024, when the rate briefly hit 6.49%.

Why This Matters

This drop is more than symbolic. Since July 29, 2025, when the 30-year fixed rate stood at 6.77%, rates have fallen 0.28 percentage points, landing today, September 3, 2025, at 6.49% following a brief uptick to 6.53% on Monday. The movement reflects improved economic signals, softening inflation, and increased investor demand for Treasurys—all of which are contributing to lower mortgage-backed securities yields and, in turn, more favorable mortgage pricing.

What This Means for Buyers & Refinancers

• Increased Affordability: A rate of 6.49% allows buyers to qualify for more home—about $20,000 more in purchase price for the same monthly payment compared to when rates were near 7%.
• Refi Opportunity: Homeowners with rates above 7% could save $150–$250/month on a $300,000 loan by refinancing at today’s levels.
• Market Confidence: Sub-6.50% rates may renew confidence among sidelined buyers, potentially boosting fall home sales activity.

What’s Driving the Drop

Several factors have contributed to the 0.28-point decline over the past month:

• Weaker job growth in July, signaling an easing labor market
• Stable Treasury yields near 4.2%, driven by investor demand and recessionary caution
• Speculation that the Fed may begin loosening monetary policy sooner than previously expected

⏳ A Narrow Window?

Industry experts don’t expect rates to plummet, but they do see the possibility of further modest declines if economic data continues to soften. Most forecasts peg rates in the 6.25%–6.75% range through the remainder of 2025. This drop below 6.50% could prove temporary if inflation surprises to the upside or the bond market reverses course.

Historical Context

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re house hunting or considering refinancing, a rate below 6.50% offers rare breathing room in today’s high-price housing market. With fall inventory expected to pick up, now may be the moment to act. Locking in a favorable rate today could pay dividends for years to come.