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There are many great opportunities if you have the cash or financing.
Still a long way to go, market will improve once labour market recovers and that will take at least a few years.
“Marquis nears 50% cut” (From MIAMITODAY March 18 edition)………Developer and bank have moved a long way in order to move the inventory…..”Marquis is to hold an open house for brokers Friday and Saturday and opens sales to the
public April 9.”
I will say it again. For the Brickell/Downtown/Park West/Pace Park corridor. The bottom in prices is in.
BTW – Regarding the post from this Christine in a post yesterday who said that she had purchased at Everglades Condo the criticism was a bit rough. First of all she said that she (an attorney i believe) and her husband had done their homework and due diligence. You beat her up pretty good saying she should cancel because Everglades is in “Distress”. Well Duh – isn’t every building down here in distress including Infinity (in receivership), Wind (foreclosure). Met One (forced to bulk sales), Axis, 900 Biscayne (bulk sales), Marina Blue(still with original flippers in units and bulk sales) And of course we all know that Icon is in distress. An arguement could be made that with the Everglades building in Chapter 11 may be in better shape coming out of the bankruptcy than lets say Icon or any of these other buildings for the simple reason that they were able to shed a considerable amount of debt in Chapter 11 thus in a better financial position than lets say Icon. Isn’t that the purpose of filing a Chapter 11? Secondly no issue with flippers shadow inventory overhanging the building. And as far as the quality of the construction – I have toured almost every building down here and the remarks that Everglades is not up to snuff are ridiculous. Four or five notches in quality and amenities above buildings like One Miami, Mint,Axis,Infinity,1800Club, and Marina Blue. And only one or two notches below Epic, 900 Biscayne or Icon. She mentioned Value so I’m assuming she got a pretty nice building for a great price since she didn’t mention her price. I would challenge anyone to tour the building before you make remarks to her like she should cancel. Unless of course your like Carlos who compares every building to Santa Maria or Apogee. Christina if you did get a good price and you and your husband did thorough diligence then don’t listen to misinformed bloogers to make your decision.
Kramer,
what is your opinion about Marquis?
Christina,
Get out of Everglades. It is a dump and in foreclosure.
I am sorry Kramer if you cant live like me in these buildings.
However, I am an investor and have toured every single building.
Everglades is a dump!
Carlos,
condoreports.com says that Everglades is healthier than 60% of condos in Miami, while Isola – arguably the ugliest condo in Miami and the one you recommended – is in the bottom 5% of the sickest ones.
You’ve got a funny way of doing business )
Christina,
I wouldn’t pay much attention to carlos. If you made your homework, congrats. Looks like fantastic building in fantastic location.
Euroman – Marquis first rate first class building in every aspect. Swiss Luxury mentions that they are dealing. If the highway next door doesn’t bother you and you are an end user this building will bounce back price wise at a much faster rate than most.
Carlos – Your a fraud and a liar to boot. As Euroman mentioned above you recommended Isola (hehe) to a poster (which i have also toured). Your credibility is shot right there. Strike One. Everglades is not in foreclosure. Strike two on your credibility in this forum and rates a 8 in quality and amenities. Strike Three – your out. No one believes you anymore. So we now know just to skip over Carlos comments. Conversation over – with phony liars. Btw – I would pay extra to NOT live next door to you : ). Which I can afford also. Bye Bye……….
Euroman,
I do not like Isola at all, but as far as your large budget goes 250 sqft demanding high floors, 2 parking spaces, water views, that is what you can afford.
You should do better research: everglades is in foreclosure and the building is not even finished yet! They have just run out of money.
You are not even here: if you take the buildings in Miami from what they look from outside or the pictures posted in websites, you are in for big trouble.
As I have said and many other posters, this is just sound advice: I hope she is happy with her decision and everything works out for her.
Waterviews alone do not make up for the awful location everglades is in: there is no neighborhood around, unless you consider the hobos and the overtown near by a neighborhood.
Bur what do you know about overtown??? You arean Euroman.
Stop being so snotty, get your a– down here and come check it out for yourself!
carlos,
LOL,
don’t argue with me, argue with condoreports.com.
Kramer,
thanks, appreciate it.
Marquis is an excellent building in an awful area. Location is number one when it comes to real estate. If u enjoy living next to the highway and share the streets with hobos then it’s great.
It is a fantastic building in a bad location.
Kramer, if u read the posts you’ll see why isola was mentioned. People who want huge apartments with waterviews in high floors and extra storage and do not have a large budget have to compromise at something.
I have no interested in Isola at all. I was offered a Ph 2 bd with direct waterviews for less than 200k and was not even interested.
I guess people have to be realistic about what they can afford and not think that just because Re is in distress here they can buy a Oceanfront penthouse for a dime.
It was not my intention to be rude to you. Please accept my apologies.
Carlos,
You must be referring to PH-15 at Isola. It was listed for $197,010 in January and spent 6 days on the market before going under contract. The appliances were missing and had obvious mold in the washer/dryer closet. Guess the sales price. $260,000!!! It was a nice unit but definitely not worth $260,000.
The area around marquis, ten museum, etc is sketchy right now. but remember it is across the street from what will become a major bayside park in an urban area. and it is next door to a beautiful performing arts center. been there many times and it is absolutely wonderful. this location and those four towers in a row will become extremely valuable in due time. it may take 5 plus years, but it will happen. i am in the market for a livable place today, and dont have the extra cash to sink into a multiyear investment. but if i did, the condos next to the pac would be my choice for greatest upside-especially if you can get them at a nice discount today.
Carlos,
I’m certainly no Miami expert, but wasn’t South Beach also a hoboland not that far ago?
Maybe it wasn’t, but that’s what I have read somewhere. Then money poured in, neighbourhood was transformed, and people said: “Man , I wish I bought property there when everything was still dirt cheap”.
And that’s why I’m looking at the Edgewater/ Downtown area. Overtown is being slowly depopulated by gentrification (population collapsed 75% from its peak to 2000, according to Wikipedia, and is probably even lower today), and may well seize to exist as what you think it is soon enough.
Well, anyways, as I understand from your postings, you cannot stand Miami. Something about that town irritates the hell out of you. And that’s what puzzles me about so many people living in Miami. Just sheer hatred for their own city. Does anyone knows what it is? What is it about Miami that creates so much rage (or disdain) among so many of its own inhabitants? Is Miami really such a terrible place to live in?
Anybody has any ideas?
Kramer:
Your post (#3, above): nicely done.
Fair, balanced and well thought out.
scriv
Euroman,
Pay no attention to Miami locals. It will take out-of-towners to rebuild/re-invent Miami. It was Northerners that created Miami Beach and Northerners who re-built the hoboland of 1980s SouthBeach. Read the book, Miami Babylon for more details. The locals have no clue what assets they have, how to value them, what the long term potential of these properties are. I agree with Gables, Biscayne/Performing Arts center area and many other downtown areas will be unrecognizable (for the better) in 5-10 years and locals will wonder why they didn’t see it coming. Bullish on downtown because the $/ft gap is too large between it & South Beach.
“Everglades is not in foreclosure”
Bank of America filed for foreclosure on the building but the developer immediately declared bankruptcy to avoid/delay foreclosure. Still in court now so you are technically correct, they are not in foreclosure.
If the bank gets the building back, who knows what course of action they’ll take. They could firesale the units, or just sit on them for years, or dump them on the rental market to bring in some cash flow. Even if the developer wins control of the building, there is no telling what course of action they’ll take once B of A is forced to let them drop prices even further.
With that kind of uncertainty about a buildings future, why not buy in a more stable building? Hell, two of the creditors who were owed among the most $$ in the bk filing were the condo associations for each tower. A sure sign of a healthy building when it owes six figures to its own HOA.
I wish Christine the best of luck, if she did her due diligence and is ok with the risks involved, great.
Let me share some thoughts why some of the locals do not like Miami because I spoke to some of them. They were not born in Miami but moved there for different reasons like health issues, warmer climate, business, retirement and live there now. They all recognize that it is a very beautiful city. They recognize that they can afford more(from the point of real estate) instead of living in NY or CA. All of people I spoke to were from NY, Boston, San Franscisco, LA. Most of them are upper middle class. Here are their reasons of being negative about the city: people are too flashy(primitive in a lot of ways), shallow, live beyond their means, lack of intellectualism. . IT exists in other cities as well but in Miami seems to be a prevailing theme.
As far as I am concerned I see Miami as a very attractive city to have your second home.
Euroman:
Either you love Miami or hate it. Visiting Miami for a week will rarely leave you with a bad impression. Actually trying to get stuff done and observing the corruption first hand takes a few months and it breaks people. I associate with a lot of newly transferred executives and the majority of them (especially who live in the general city area, not in Davie) cannot believe how difficult it is to live in this city.
In general there are awesome deals out there that will appreciate in a few years time. But will the county and city have funds to build parks, keep the streets safe and continue what they are currently doing? No. For the last two years there have been massive budget cuts and it will continue for the next couple years. These budget cuts are already past the lazy employees and are starting to cut into services.
With all that said, if I could buy the unit I am renting in Met1 for the price the tax assessor says it is worth, I would seriously consider that.
South Beacher,
Lara,
very interesting, many thanks.
I guess many great cities are also infuriating on many levels. But Miami seems to drive many Miamians crazy in a very particular way. Miami Herald comments section seethes with rage, predictions of doom, etc. A lot of folks appear relishing city’s troubles.
Maybe the hatred is just a result of unrequited love, who knows. ) ?
Lara,
do you have any info as to why Quantum North’s HOAs are higher than Quantum South’s (70c vs 55c/sq ft?) ?
At least that’s what condoreports.com says.
Euroman,
I’ve noticed something similar and here is my take. Miami and South Florida in general has a huge problem with education. They’re behind the national average and WAY behind large metro areas. As a result you have a large portion of the population (roughly 80%) who are uneducated and work low skill jobs. As we were discussing before its a city of have and have-nots. Here is some old salary information from the US Census:
2000 Income: $53,574 (average), $37,509 (median)
2001 Income: $50,261 (average), $35,241 (median)
2002 Income: $53,361 (average), $36,809 (median)
2003 Income: $51,924 (average), $36,089 (median)
You can see while the median is very low the average is actually very high. That’s because salaries are not evenly distributed and instead there are a lot more people below the average than above it.
So basically you have a city where 70%+ of the people are disgruntled because they’re not educated and have no access to a higher paying job. It probably wouldn’t be that bad if the problem wasn’t compounded by the fact that these people who are in the majority (have-nots) have to watch the people in the minority (haves) not only prosper but do so in a flamboyant way. For example in the Midwest because everything is spread out you have large middle class areas where these people do not have to see or interact with upper class people. So they don’t have a constant daily reminder that others have a lot more than them. Not the case in Miami. This leads to more people “keeping up with the Joneses”, which in return only saddles them with more debt and less opportunity for upward mobility.
This to me leads to the whole Miami is flashy and has no substance mentality. To these people what good is the weather, beaches, fancy cars, etc. if they personally can’t afford to have them.
So then you have the upper middle class people from out of state that Lara is referring to. They move here because it’s affordable as compared to there original city (NY, LA, Boston, etc.). But when they get here there is no real middle class that they’re used to. Instead of they’re neighbor being a college graduate instead they’re someone who is actually living beyond their means. So while they’re in the same neighborhood with similar cars, etc. they are actually very different. This speaks both to the intellectualism and flashy ways.
So you see a lot of people say you’ll either love or hate Miami. Which essentially means if you make good money you’ll love it but if you don’t make good money you’ll hate it.
I’m amazed that a comment condemning a certain building or neighborhood results in hasty generalizations that such commenter “hates Miami” or is “miserable in Miami.” Its possible to be opinionated about these things but still enjoy the city and have no intention of leaving. One guy loves South Beach and hates Midtown. Or vice versa. Who cares? Its just an opinion based on personal preference.
Personally I’m at the stage in my life that condo living doesn’t make any sense to me or my family that’s why I live in Pinecrest. I’ve lived in condos on the Beach, Gables and Grove and would never do it again. Again, just a personal preference. I like having a yard, a driveway and more than 2 bedrooms. And not being confined to a box. And not having to deal with valets. And I believe views are over-rated. (I could go on and on…) I’m sure others on this blog feel the same way.
So I’ll take a skeptical or pessimistic approach to an analysis of the Miami condo market. Does that mean I hate living here? Of course not. I enjoy it and will probably live here the rest of my life. The city has many drawbacks – but also many benefits that usually outweigh the disadvantages.
And Lara #18- very true also, esp about the lack of intellectualism. That’s singlehandedly the most frustrating thing about living in this city- dealing with complete idiots as you go about your daily business. On top of that, the idiots are usually the rudest too. No civility. But I think that’s the tradeoff for living in a multi-ethnic community.
Lara
Nicely said.
Miami is great and bad for the reasons you have mentioned. However, if you come from Manhattan, San Francisco, Chicago or any other main developed and professional city, you cant take Miami much more than a second home city.
Miami would probably be the best place to live should the city provide opportunities for offices and companies to move down here and offer job positions for people with higher income and educational level.
Right now it is a city filled with poor illiterate immigrants who have nothing to offer to the city and take advantage of federal and local prigeams, wasting money that should be spent in improving the city.
Guys,
Here is my 2 cents as a person who recently bought a condo in Miami in brickell area as my perm home and plans to live in the condo long term.
I see your points and yes people either love it or hate it. I want to love it, although I see allot of negatives too.
Living in a condo in Miami, is allot different from living in my last house in a nice clean suburb in the mid-central state that I came from.
Miami is ALOT better then 15 years ago, and I know it will be ALOT better 15 years from now. I think we just need to be patient and except things as they are and look forward to things getting better in the coming years.
In meanwhile, I have already strated to work with the city of miami folks to make my area of miami a better place to live in. They are not the most effective folks to work with, however they have addressed some of issues in my area, but it’s slow going.
If more peolpe who live in the city would put some pressure on the city to address the issues they will slowing resolve them.
Drew,
I know for myself I wasn’t talking about people being negative about Miami because of this blog. And I got the impression that since Euroman mentioned the comments section of the Miami Herald neither was he. I ask questions on other forums where people just talk about Miami in general and I’d I guess that 80% of the people in those forums, newspapers article responses, etc. speak at though they absolutely hate Miami. Sort of like when I posted that 20% of people in Miami-Dade have a college degree (which is very low) people quickly shot it down that it had to be lower. A lot of people in Miami have serious resentment towards it.
Gixxer 1000,
You said:
So then you have the upper middle class people from out of state that Lara is referring to. They move here because it’s affordable as compared to there original city (NY, LA, Boston, etc.). But when they get here there is no real middle class that they’re used to. Instead of they’re neighbor being a college graduate instead they’re someone who is actually living beyond their means. So while they’re in the same neighborhood with similar cars, etc. they are actually very different. This speaks both to the intellectualism and flashy ways. So you see a lot of people say you’ll either love or hate Miami. Which essentially means if you make good money you’ll love it but if you don’t make good money you’ll hate it.
— another excellent comment – this is exactly what I have experienced since I moved here.
Gixxer 1000,
ah, the frustrations of a deeply materialistic city!
Agreed.
Drew,
yours “the idiots are usually the rudest too” is priceless.
Could be very revealing.
Euroman,
RE: your question about which lines at the Lexi face downtown fom the other thread. I posted this there, but it seems this is where people are posting now so I’ll repost it in case you missed it.
“02 (faces SE) and 12 (faces SW) are corner units with warp around balconies that face downtown. 01 (faces NE) and 11 (faces NW) are in the same line but 01 will only have a downtown view if you are on the wraparound part.
I’ve got an 02.”
BTW, regarding this convo of whether you love or have Miami…..count me in as one of the folks in the ‘love it’ category. I think this place is awesome and really couldn’t imagine living anywhere else.
Edit: Meant to say “hate” in my last post. Typo.
Lol – Well then you can’t say that “Miamians” are fearful, negative, shallow, materialistic, etc. if indeed none of us (most) are from some other place to begin with. Didn’t we bring those traits with us?
There used to be a poster in here with the handle La La that often commented that the appeal for her in living in Miami (Brickell) was in watching a “young” city evolve. And for me also. That is the appeal. Imagine living in New York City or Boston or Chicago 100 or more years ago when they were just starting to emerge as a great American city. Were they not a rough and tumble Boss Tweed hodgepodge of different cultures and similarities and differences of opinion. In Miami the great Condo meltdown only makes our story that much more interesting. Thus our lively debates on which part of town or which building is worthy. But like La La – I like watching the evolution with three steps forward and two steps back and then four steps forward etc. Does anyone here disagree that Miami has and will continue to evolve into a great American city – yet you have to have the stomach (So To Speak) to witness it all : ). Even though i can – I would not live anywhere else.
The only three issues I have with Miami area are: (1) Very poor/slow service (pervasive), (2) Bad drivers, and (3) Dishonest people in real estate. You just have to learn to live with it and learn to honk on occasion….I don’t think I ever honked at another driver in 10 years until I moved here! Although I try to do it politely even if they are meandering around a six lane road talking on the cell phone like they are driving in a parking lot. Oh well.
Looks like there is a double dip in housing prices??? Or more accurately, no double dip but “just a blip” on the way down? It will be interesting to watch interest rates and their affect on housing prices in the second half of 2010. Real mortgage backers will demand higher interest rates….more interesting will be if fed govt comes out decisively to not guarantee loans through the FMs and others.
Renter Tom,
leaving aside the fact that “double dip” may be just a figment of your imagination,
what price would you suggest I look for if the Marquis drops its prices?
DJ,
thank you,
I guess I’ll be on a lookout for 01 and 02 lines.
I did go to Google Street to “drive” through your neighbourhood, and it felt almost like I was in the Keys. )
Kramer,
That’s part of the reason why I want to study real estate development and work in Miami. Think of the impact and change that can happen over the next 15 years. It seems a lot more interesting than simply constantly renovating what’s already there.
Short term plans include:
Downtown Convention/Conference center of the Americas
Redevelopment of Bicentennial Park
Completing Baywalk and Riverwalk
Implementing Waterborne trasportation
Enhancing Brickell avenue streetscape
Redevelopment of Flagler street
Connecting and promoting parks and open spaces
Making city more pedestrian friendly
Promoting more public transit (expand metromover, implement streetcars and trollys)
Improving inland connections to waterfront
More daytime dockage
Encouragement of more dinning and retail along Brickell ave and Biscayne Boulevard
I actually think the real estate bust was the best thing that could of happened to Miami. Migration to Florida from within the United States not only stopped but it reversed during the housing boom. In 2008 there was a net loss of 9,000 people when only looking at domestics. As housing becomes more affordable this trend will likely reverse. And thanks to the condo bust those Northeast folks (NY has always been the biggest contributor) will now have vibrant downtown as an option as well.
What do you guys think of Brickell on the River North tower? I am considering uying a 2/2 for $330,000.
Renter Tom,
I’m curious. What measure are you using to track a double dip. The percent rise or fall for market is usually tracked by the median sales price? What do you expect this measures to fall to?
I’m trying to get an understanding of what your thinking is. For example in February you posted the article that predicted the 30% drop by Sept 30th specifically for Miami. Here are the Median home prices for 2010:
Jan $199,700
Feb $199,925
Mar $199,497 (so far)
A 30% drop (actually it was 29.2%) would put Septembers median sales price somewhere around $140k. Do you really believe anything remotely close to this is going to happen?
You said:
“I’ve been watching the Miami market for two years now…it is buyer’s beware in this “wild west”. I still see a lot of overpriced listings that simply don’t move except for some price declines.”
I agree with this statement. The problem is that just because a lot of stuff is still overpriced and needs to be marked down doesn’t mean that what is actually selling is getting any cheaper. It’s the median sales price that is tracked not the median asking price.
In order for the median price to go down, prices below the median are going to have to be sold for less. You can sell $2 million dollar condos for $400k and the $200k median wont budge a bit. I think a lot of people are confusing median and average. Do you really see the sub $200k market going lower?
Also to be specific, this information is for all homes in Miami-Dade. Downtown condos don’t have to follow the same pattern. So when you say double dip are you talking Miami condos or all of Miami?
I wanted to clarify one more point. For the median to go down your not actually only concerned about the houses below the median. You’re actually only concerned with the houses JUST below the median. So for example if you are selling 10 houses a month, the only houses that will affect the median are the 5 and 6 house sold each month. Example:
10 houses:
$50k, $80k, $90k, $180k, $190k, $210, $250k, $400k, $1m, $20m
Here the median sales price would be $200k (the average of the two middle numbers $190 and $210).
If you started selling all the high end stuff cheaper the median wouldn’t change:
$50k, $80k, $90k, $180k, $190k, $210, $220k, $300k, $350k, $500k
Here the median would still be $200k.
In fact while selling all the expensive stuff cheaper you could actually go up:
$50k, $80k, $90k, $180k, $200k, $230, $220k, $300k, $350k, $500k
Here the median would be $215k (average of $200k and $230k)
So even if the stuff at the bottom goes cheaper still nothing changes:
$10k, $30k, $100k, $170k, $190k, $210k, $220k, $300k, $350k, $500k
Still a median of $200k.
Right now the median is at $200k because that is the price point that the majority of people are purchasing at. If you have 10 sales each month and 6 of them are near $200k then it doesn’t matter what price the others sale at.
$200k, $200k, $200k, $200k, $200k, $200, X, X, X, X.
You can make those X’s anything you want, the median (middle) will always be $200k.
So the question is if most people right now can afford a $200k house then what will happen to change what most people can afford.
Gixxer 1000 – Based on your posts, I have to say, you’re gonna make a helluva bureaucrat when you land your city planner job…perfect fit for Miami, a lot of talk. Then if that doesn’t work out you could become a marine biologist and assist George Costanza. LOL
Gixxer 1000,
when Renter Tom says there is a “double dip”, objective reality doesn’t matter all that much, if at all.
After “double dip” there will be “triple”, “quadruple” and other “dips”, statistics be damned.
You coming with all these numbers from real life – things otherwise known as “facts” – how rude…
Gixxer 1000,
you wrote:
“Also to be specific, this information is for all homes in Miami-Dade. Downtown condos don’t have to follow the same pattern. So when you say double dip are you talking Miami condos or all of Miami?”
From what I could gather so far, Renter Tom is talking only about the condos that people on this blog actually want to buy.
No matter what the price is – it’s going down.
Renter Tom,
Actually I put a lot of information (sales number, stats, etc) behind my opinion so I doubt I’d be a bureaucrat. Come to think of it I don’t think I’ve actually ever disagreed with you and seen you refer to facts in an argument outside of maybe quoting the opinion of someone else as fact.
But when Sept 30th gets here and median sales prices isn’t 30% lower, I’m sure your answer will be very bureaucratic.
From what I read when you first came here you were concerned about inventory, supply, price per square foot, etc. It’s what lead you to make the smart move and rent. Now you don’t even care about facts. It’s like you’ve been reading blogs for two years and you convinced yourself that you or any other of these fools can actually predict the market. WTF man, snap out of it. Analyze the data and see where we are at and where were headed, anything beyond that is a shot in the dark. And stop letting these people fool you. That Moody’s 30% prediction that you posted. Guess what, around Nov and December ’09 the median price was dropping 4% per month. If you follow the trend out until Sept 30 the would give you a total of a 30% drop. So they repackage current information in a different form and then sell it to people through the media. Just like the whole “prices wont hit past peaks until 2030 deal”. Which was basically saying “buy now and your house will appreciate 100% in 20 years”.
I know a lot of the condos in the price range you’re looking at still have a ways to go. But seriously what reasoning do you have that the low end condos are going lower? I keep asking you for facts to support you theories for an “intellectual” discussion about it and you keep giving me hearsay and taking personal swipes. Maybe this is what Lara was talking about. I completely understand that I may have the WRONG position. In fact I’d like to be wrong because it would possibly mean cheaper housing for me. So I’m open to anyone providing me with contradictory information or flaws in my argument.
Rentertom – Hey hey hey. Don’t be raggin on my buddy George Costanza. Anyway he always wanted to be a city planner or an architect. Remember the kid he mentored right after Susan died : ).
C O S T A N Z A A R C H I T E C T S M I A M I
completed projects in Miami:
Capital Lofts
Science Meuseum at Museum park
Art Museum at Museum park
Bayview Market
Loft III
Paramount Beach
Miami Center
gixxer, dont come to miami. you will not last. you have a strong desire to use logic and facts to conduct your business. it does not work that way down here. and it will drive you crazy. you think you can beat the system if you play by the rules-but the system will eat you alive. trust me. been there done that. only come down here to do business if you are willing to operate by a very very flexible set of rules. this allows the bad people to get out of jams they dont like-to the detriment of those who follow the rules. and you my friend are a rules follower. i used to be one as well…
Gixxer,
If nothing works out, you can always become a hand model. After all, everyone is a model in Miami.
Gixxer 1000,
looks like some people are trying to shut you up by claiming that Miami is an alternate universe where neither common sense, nor simple math apply.
That’s how people are trying to argue when they have no valid arguments.
Funny stuff.
I guess you have won this one.
So how much will Marquis units be at the 50% sale price?? I thought half the building was going to be hotel??
Euroman,
I have no idea why HOA in North tower of Quantum are higher than in the South Tower.
I have an apartment in South Tower. May be because there are fewer number of units in the North Tower.
In fact HOA fees in the South Tower have been reduced for 2010.
Prices are continuing to come down people. The more expensive, the more they are coming down. Why the heck do you think celebs were willing to take millions in loses to get out now? A bit late to the party, but hey, better late then at the bottom. Are there some deals out there…yes there are, but more are coming. The current market prices are being artificially held up. There were a lot of knife catchers in 2007, 2008 and 2009….there will be a lot in 2010 too. We’re closer to the bottom than before, but a 10% decline is pretty much baked into the cake. Just sayin’
Euroman — If you want to believe Wikipedia and a guy (Gixxer 1000) who, by his own admission, has spent next to no time in Miami, that’s fine. Me? I’ll stick to my own experiences from actually *living* in Miami.
I have no idea if Miami’s condo market is heading up, down, or will stagnate for years on end. (I suspect it’s heading down, but that’s just an educated guess.) But I can say, with 100% certainty, that Miami is in a league of its own when it comes to graft, corruption, banana republic politicians and “government,” bad service, crooks, petty thieves, fraudsters, flimflam artists, etc., etc. (and that includes Chicago and New Orleans).
Go read the stories about the $1 billion (or whatever it is) in transit taxes that have been collected in the past decade — while mass transit has been CUT. Go read the articles about the $3 MILLION PER DAY in Medicare fraud in Miami. Go read the articles about how Miami International Airport had no freaking luggage carts for YEARS because the crooked politicians kept getting caught rigging the bids and whatnot.
Like it or not, and as non-P.C. as it is to say this, Miami is a city of, by, and for Hispanic immigrants who brought the worst habits of their home countries with them to Miami, where those bad habits not only have taken root but are underwritten by Uncle Sam. This is the simple reality, and it won’t be changing any time soon.
…
…
That said, I still love Miami … but there’s a fine line between love and hate. A VERY fine line.
Lara, thanks,
will have to do more research.
What doesn’t make sense is bankrupted Europe, which now has one of its European members, Greece, begging the IMF for money. You do realize that 80% of IMF’s fund comes from American taxpayers, right? The Europeans created the EU to beat the US, then when its members go bankrupt the American taxpayers have to bail them out.
Oh, and never mind that we’d already gave free to them: Internet, microchip, GPS, fiber optics, email, broadband, mouse, microwave oven, air conditioner, laser, WiFi, cellular phone, Blues, Jazz, Rock, R&B, electronic music, Hip-Hop, CGI, cable TV, bar code, MBA, PhD, credit card, DJ and personal trainer professions, etc, etc, etc, ad infinitum. If Motorola had not invented the cell phone, would Nokia, RIM, HTC, and Ericsson ever exist? Please, search the Internet well before you even think about denying proper credit to the US for all these revolutionary inventions that changed the entire planet. And please don’t mention unimpressive inventions that depend solely on the above creations to even exist (e.g., World Wild Web). And Linux is based on American made Unix, ok?
As usual, the Americans carrying the world on their backs: Europe, China, India, Japan, Canada, Korea, Mexico…everybody and their mother (literally) taking a ride. We just had half of Europe here flipping condos like crazy (and committing fraud), to the point of destroying our economy, and now they still have the nerve to ask Americans to bail Greece out…after that comes Spain, Portugal, Ireland…all with the hands out.
We also hear constantly from Europeans how the American taxpayers should pay carbon taxes to banks in Europe. The US allegedly produces too much CO2 emissions. Really? Why don’t they subtract all the emissions that those revolutionary inventions above cut from the entire planet? How many CO2 emissions that email alone has been cutting from the entire planet in a daily basis, for decades? How many trees were saved since the US invented email and Internet? What about mp3 and online shopping? What about broadband and GPS? Now, after subtracting all that, compare the result with the other countries who never invent anything really revolutionary that cuts CO2 from the entire planet. A few windmills at your European countryside won’t cut it, if the rest of the world still had to be using snail mail to this day, ok? Good luck taking all that snow from your rooftop solar panels.
Is anyone surprised why our economy is like this, if Americans have to work their butts off while the Greeks retire at 50-years old with full pension? Or while the French chills at cafes? Not only the American private sector has to support our own unions but now we have to support European unions and EU’s failed socialist adventure as well. I must be living in a twilight episode.
I know, nobody cares about adult talk. It’s all about flipping condos, 6%, and chilling at the lounge, right? “It’s all about being sexy, baby!” Enjoy while you can because this socialist party is unsustainable.
Hi everybody, as an out of towner and a foreigner who considers Miami an interesting place for investment and a nice city for having a pied-a-terre in the US, I would like to thank you all for your extremely interesting points of view, very educational. I do not read the comments on a daily or wekly basis, but when I do I enjoy them a lot. Great idea Lucas, when visiting your town I will drop by your office.
My little bit of foreign cultural tidbit: I don’t remember reading, when you are discussing prices and its evolution, comments refering to inflation. It is a fact that the US dollar devaluates and in countries with inflationary record, the purchase of real estate is probably the best defense against it.Probably this is an important consideration to take into account, specially if you can get a mortgage at a fixed rate: in such scenario the lender will be getting a much lower amount compared to the value of the property at the end of the day.
Lara
Have you had any complaints from your tenant regarding a sewage smell invading the units At Quantum?
I was shown some units there and the stench was hideous.
I have heard from other people the same story and apparently they have a serious construction issue on the building.
Carlos
See: http://blogs.miaminewtimes.com/riptide/2010/02/that_stinking_condo_quantum_on.php
Lara/Euroman,
you said.
I have no idea why HOA in North tower of Quantum are higher than in the South Tower.
I have an apartment in South Tower. May be because there are fewer number of units in the North Tower.
—> yes, it is because there are fewer number of units in the North Tower. What is what my buddy was told by the Quantum salepeople when he bought his condo at Quantum .
Carlos, this issue of unpleasant smell was raised sometime ago on this blog. This is when I first learned about it and was very concerned. I e-mailed to the management. Their response was that the issue was extremely exaggerated and that they are investigating it. Once they come to a conclusion they will notify all the owners. I did not hear from them.
Also I spoke to my tenant and asked him if there was a problem. He told me that he did not experience any problem and was very happy with the apartment and the building. That was it.
Thanks Drew.
After reading the comments, it makes it even worse.
hat’s my recurrent point: what is the point in having great views if you live in a cheap building, poorly managed, full of tenants and to top it all a 247 stench?
Read comments from article quoted from Drew below:
Michael Owens says:
I have spent months trying to figure out what the smell is my unit as well,all I ever got was the run around the building not only stinks but is completely mismanaged. I am also going to look to get out of my unit as well.
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 9:45AM Anonymous says:
The smell is bad on the 8th Floor. Even if the elevator stops there on the way up, you can smell the stench when the doors open. It’s really unfortunate. Many people bought, but at least owners are getting some information. Renters aren’t even getting the courtesy of an update from the building management, who know of the problem and have known since at least October 2009.
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 9:46AM Marc Coope says:
There is for sure a foul smell coming into my apt as well. I always just thought it was coming from the Bay and it was something we just had to deal with. I was never informed by my landloard or the managment that there was a problem. The whole building smells like baby diapers!If I can throw the extra money together I will leave as well.
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 9:55AM Brian R Hope says:
We have been moved out of the building for over 3 weeks and at this point the building managment (SERGIO,And ANNA)are doing everything they can do to slow down my refund deposit from the building. To move into the Quantum you need not only first,last, and a security to the landloard but the building requires a seperate 1500 dollar deposit. They also require a 500 dollar elevator deposit to move they refund 300 but charge you 200 to have a security guard sit in the elevator while you move. They are refusing to refund me the 1500 they refuse to return any calls and just keep stalling with the deposit. At this point I feel like there is so much mismanagment that maybe they don’t have the money to return.
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 10:09AM computer consultant says:
OH, boy. I am surprised they are the only ones with that problem. There are probably others but its not public yet.
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 10:41AM Anonymous says:
Maybe the smell is coming from the management there
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 12:03PM sam says:
management does suck. but so far no smell for me on the 42 yet. overall i like living here, but the management and the security need to be revamped.
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 12:58PM South Tower 35th floor says:
The Smell is sometimes so overwhelming in my unit and my floor I light upwards to ten candles a night to off set the smell. I was told the smell was from unflushed toilets from units that were empty. I was told that managment was going to keep flushing all the toilets. It seemed odd but I was not sure what to think I have filled two written complaints and still have heard nothing from the managment. I can’t just move out like the others did since I am a unit owner.
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 1:39PM Anonymous says:
class action ever come to mind?
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 4:12PM Anonymous says:
always good to buy or rent after other people already moved in, all these buildings have mistakes, nobody cares til you sue
Posted On: Tuesday, Feb. 2 2010 @ 6:14PM alec says:
Fire the whole management. All of these Sergios and Annas have to go.
Posted On: Wednesday, Feb. 3 2010 @ 10:14PM
Thanks Lara.
You may have to talk to them again. From the comments posted from residents, it seems the management is not very reliable,
I have lived in Quantum for over a year and the issue is exaggerated. There is a construction design issue which is being corrected but the article in the New Times seems to be based off a comment from somebody who was looking for a way out of his contract and was trying to make a criminal case out of nothing.
The issue relates to the location of the sewage vent on the roof in regards to the AC intake and the possibility that under certain conditions with the wind being strong enough and coming from a certain direction it can redirect the smell back into the building. All that needs to be done to permanently fix it is to raise it.
Obviously I cannot speak for every single floor but I have never had the smell directly in my unit, I have only smelled it a few times while on the elevator. And while it certainly isn’t something I would want to have to live with long-term I can accept it as a building defect (which all new buildings have in some way or another) that has been acknowledged by management and is going to be fixed.
Enzo,
I believe european scientist were very instrumental in early developing RF technology which motorolla and other companies eventually used to give us many of wonderful technologies you just described as being american inventions. Hertz is the unit measurement of RF and is named by a German scientist. Marconi was Itilan an was instrumental in giving us the Raido and many europen scientist.
Hey, don’t let me interupt your rant with these silly little things we call facts.
” is named by a German scientist” should be “is named after a German scientist Heinrich Hertz “
Lara and Quantum owner,
Dont you get it? Carlos is just a troll and trying to get you guys. His question was just to egg you into responding to a subject that has already been discussed here in detail before. Carlos admittedly hates downtown and lives on South beach, if we have to believe him. He is totally lying when he says that he saw a few units in Quantum.
Enzo,
you possess quite a remarkable ability to post inaccurate information without flinching once.
US quota in IMF is 17%, …ummmm….a little lower than 80% you allege. And the list of “your” gifts to the world would not be so impressive should Greeks, Italians, Chinese, Indians, French, Germans, Japanese and other lesser people start listing their accomplishments. But hey, never mind, living in a bubble has its own unique advantages.
Lara, ownertainfinity,
I appreciate the suggestion, but levying higher HOA dues because building contains smaller number of units doesn’t seem to make much sense. Then the building itself is smaller too, and I don’t see smaller buildings in Miami imposing higher charges on their owners. Often, the opposite happens. I might contact Quantum mgmt at some point.
Carlos,
your private vendetta on every building in Miami is becoming really hillarious. I can only wonder what happened to you in that city to prompt so much venality. It can’t be just people honking and flashing their Bentleys, otherwise you’d hate Miami Beach too, and you don’t seem to. Something else is in play here, but what? Too bad I’m not a shrink, you’d be a wonderful case.
As Kramer pointed out, your credibility is not the world’s most stellar. Ithink he was probably right.
Gixxer – Does this sort of stuff happen where you live? Miami IS different… 🙂
“Former Miami Beach cop arrested in kidnapping
BY JAY WEAVER
A former Miami Beach police officer and an accomplice demanded $100,000 from a man they kidnapped while threatening to cut off his testicles, blow off his head and pull out his teeth if his family didn’t pay the ransom, according to a federal criminal complaint filed Friday.
Richard Anastasi, the former Beach officer, and Francisco Arias, his friend, struck the victim, choked him into unconsciousness and shocked him with a stun gun, the complaint said.
Anastasi, 47, and Arias, 42, who impersonated police officers during part of the alleged kidnapping plot spanning March 11 to Monday, were arrested Thursday on charges of conspiring to take the hostage for the ransom.
If convicted, each defendant faces a maximum life prison sentence.
In post-arrest statements, the defendants claimed that Anastasi had been the victim of identity theft and credit card fraud, and that they were trying to recoup money that had been stolen from him.”
Euroman,
When you can afford Santa Maria or Apogee, you will be in my league. Other than that, just stay in Europe, with all your foolish request of high floors, water views, 2 parking spaces, good amenities for 250 k.
All the middle of the road buildings are to me just opportunities to invest. However, most of them are flunks.
If you doubt me so much, you can come to the Apogee and ask the concierge if I live there. You may even get lucky and find me home.
Carlos,
just to make sure that you are not a total windbag, what exactly should ask “your concierge” at Apogee?
Could you please compose that question for me?
BTW, do you know the difference between $250k and $250/sq ft?
Makes Me Think,
You’re actually mistaken. Electromagnetic waves were first postulated by James Clerk Maxwell, a Scottish, and subsequently confirmed by Heinrich Hertz. However, by your reasoning, we should then credit the Geico’s caveman for inventing solar panels, because he was the first human being to notice the sun.
Oh, and never mind the amount of European actors and directors that Hollywood alone carries on the back. You can add to your list of American revolutionary inventions: LCD display, LED, RFID, CD-Rom, Spreadsheets, Twitter, Facebook, Band-Aid, plastic surgery, etc, etc, etc, ad nauseum. Now look at your jeans and zipper. Yep, American inventions.
Enjoy.
Renter Tom,
there are former cops on a run in almost every state in America, so that article only confirms that Miami is no different.
Give it another try.
Carlos,
PLEASE READ: what exactly should I ask “your concierge” at Apogee?
Euroman said: “Renter Tom,
there are former cops on a run in almost every state in America, so that article only confirms that Miami is no different.
Give it another try.”
– Wow, you really are an idiot. The level of Miami cop corruption is NOT what happens in “almost every state in America”. You got a lot to learn buddy. Perhaps this happens in Europe?
Enzo,
Denim was inveneted in France, first denim pants were made in Italy.
Interlocking teeth zipper – invented by Swede.
LCD technology – first patented by Marconi (hint: not a US company)
RFID – first invented in UK, advanced in USSR, smallest one belongs to Hitachi.
CD-Rom —developed by Sony and Philips.
Plastic surgery – invented in India 4000 years ago.
Join Renter Tom, give it another try.
Euroman,
Here’s the official quotas that anyone can check at Wikipedia:
1. United States…$37,2 billion
2. Japan…$13,3 billion (lives off the US)
3. Germany…$13 billion
4. United Kingdom…$10,8 billion (bankrupt)
5. France…$10,7 billion
But that’s a misleading amount because countries default on loans, which are never repaid back, thus creating an open line of credit. That amount you see is just the amount to be funded over and over again, as countries keep defaulting or getting forgiveness. So the American taxpayers keep losing much more money than their counterparts, because their share is much bigger, as you can see above. Why should the American taxpayer bail bankrupted European Union members, as Germany, Netherlands, Greece, etc, suggest? They created the EU, so it’s only fair that they alone should rescue their members. Now that most of the EU is bankrupt, they came up with the global tax on emissions scam, so the Americans can keep sending cash to Europe.
Enzo,
you are right, Geico caveman couldn’t be credited with inventing solar cells.
That distinction belongs to a Russian – Aleksandr Stoletov.
Euroman,
Your handle doesn’t impress anyone, since your euro has failed in dramatic fashion. Accordingly, instead of buying condo in the US (since you seem to hate us so much), why don’t you use that money to pay for your bankrupted EU member Greece? You guys are an Union know, remember? Greece is your responsibility, so pay for it. We already have too many welfare freeloaders in Miami.
Enzo,
all of the losses (and profits) in IMF are accrued in proportion. Even though nominally US gains/loses the most, it’s still only 17%. Bottom line – your info is dead wrong. Way wrong. As in 17 vs 80 kind of wrong.
Renter Tom,
if you have any credible data on police corruption in Miami, post it. Some funny newspapaper articles about one-off case just won’t do.
NYC cops are notoriously corrupt.
Chicago as well. Boston too.
In Texas they stop you on a freeway in a middle of nowhere, and if you have cash in your car, they confiscate it.
There are former cops on a run in Midwest for molesting kids.
If someone is an idiot here, you may find one looking in a mirror.)
Enzo,
I don’t hate America. I like it. A lot.
Just implicating you as an ignorant liar doesn’t make me America-hater, now does it?
Folks, don’t believe Euroman. Research the web for yourselves. Here are the facts:
Jeans – Invented by Levi’s
LCD – Invented by American James Fergason from the RCA David Sarnoff Research Center in Princeton, New Jersey
RFID – The first patent to be associated with the abbreviation RFID was granted to Charles Walton in 1983 U.S. Patent 4,384,288
CD ROM – The digital compact disc, now commonplace in stereos and computers, was invented in the late 1960s by James T. Russell.
Russell was born in Bremerton, Washington in 1931. At age six, he invented a remote-control battleship, with a storage chamber for his lunch. Russell went on to earn a BA in Physics from Reed College in Portland in 1953. Afterward, he went to work as a Physicist in General Electric’s nearby labs in Richland, Washington.
==
Europeans always try to discredit Americans for their revolutionary inventions. Don’t believe them.
Enzo,
I can’t argue with you about freeloaders, since you are probably an expert on the subject.
But I always pay my way, and after paying I still have enough change left to buy a condo in Miami. Hope I don’t have to ask your permission to do so.
Sorry, I forgot about the zipper:
Wikipedia: “The zipper, “an Automatic, Continuous Clothing Closure”, was patented in the United States by Elias Howe in 1851.”
Euroman,
If you come to Miami with this attitude of hatred for Americans, always trying to discredit the US for its inventions, I suggest you try some other country. Why would you want to be here if you dislike us? Why don’t buy something in Greece or Nice, for instance?
Enzo,
Levi Strauss was a Swiss Jew, BTW, so jeans (the word derived from Genoa)doesn’t really count as an American invention.
Here is an excerpt about CD from Wikipedia:
The Compact Disc is a spin-off of the Laserdisc technology. Philips publicly demonstrated a prototype of an optical digital audio disc at a press conference called “Philips Introduce Compact Disc”[2] in Eindhoven, Netherlands, on March 8, 1979.[3] Three years earlier, Sony first publicly demonstrated an optical digital audio disc in September 1976. In September 1978, they demonstrated an optical digital audio disc with a 150 minute playing time, and with specifications of 44,056 Hz sampling rate, 16-bit linear resolution, cross-interleaved error correction code, that were similar to those of the Compact Disc introduced in 1982. Technical details of Sony’s digital audio disc were presented during the 62nd AES Convention, held on March 13–16, 1979, in Brussels.[4]
The first test CD was pressed in Hannover, Germany, by the Polydor Pressing Operations plant in 1981.
Enzo,
zipper that you have so much trouble closing when in public is called “interlocking teeth zipper”, and according to Wikipedia it was developed by Gideon Sundbäck, a Swedish-born engineer.
Plastic Surgery was invented in the United States by a surgeon from St. Louis named Vilray Blair, which used innovative techniques to treat World War I soldiers with complex facial injuries. His scientific paper, “Reconstructive Surgery of the Face” became the standard reference for facial reconstruction.
Enzo,
what does it mean – “dislike us”?
I don’t dislike people generally, I may dislike you personally, but you make it really easy, and I’m sure 99% of Americans who know you, dislike you too.
You should probably get used to it at this point.
Enzo,
articles about all of the inventions you listed are easily accessible on the Internet, and they render your info as being extremely selective and almost completely wrong.
Somehow you manage to be wrong most of the time.
Quiet a feat.
Enzo,
from Wikipedia about plastic surgery:
Reconstructive surgery techniques were being carried out in India by 2000 BC.[1] Sushruta, considered the father of surgery, made important contributions to the field of plastic and cataract surgery in 6th century BC.[2] The medical works of both Sushruta and Charak were translated into Arabic language during the Abbasid Caliphate in 750 AD.[3] These Arabic works made their way into Europe via intermediaries.[3] In Italy the Branca family of Sicily and Gaspare Tagliacozzi (Bologna) became familiar with the techniques of Sushruta.[3]
Euroman,
I’ve been showing dozens of revolutionary American inventions that have been patented in the US. All you’re showing are myths that have no value, only in your European-distorted account of history.
One more thing, anyone who immigrates to the US to use our infrastructure, entrepreneurial system, knowledge base, and university grants, to invent anything, should consider the invention American made. I don’t care if Levi’s was French or what have you. Jeans was created and patented in America. End of discussion. Zipper was created and patented in America, and I’ve given you the patent number as proof. End of discussion. I hope you know what Intellectual Property means.
Enzo,
from Wikipedia about LCD:
1888: Friedrich Reinitzer (1858-1927) discovers the liquid crystalline nature of cholesterol extracted from carrots (that is, two melting points and generation of colors) and published his findings at a meeting of the Vienna Chemical Society on May 3, 1888 (F. Reinitzer: Beiträge zur Kenntniss des Cholesterins, Monatshefte für Chemie (Wien) 9, 421-441 (1888)).[4]
1904: Otto Lehmann publishes his work “Flüssige Kristalle” (Liquid Crystals).
1911: Charles Mauguin first experiments of liquids crystals confined between plates in thin layers.
1922: Georges Friedel describes the structure and properties of liquid crystals and classified them in 3 types (nematics, smectics and cholesterics).
1936: The Marconi Wireless Telegraph company patents the first practical application of the technology, “The Liquid Crystal Light Valve”.
Enzo,
from Wikipedia about RFID:
In 1945 Léon Theremin invented an espionage tool for the Soviet Union which retransmitted incident radio waves with audio information. Sound waves vibrated a diaphragm which slightly altered the shape of the resonator, which modulated the reflected radio frequency. Even though this device was a covert listening device, not an identification tag, it is considered to be a predecessor of RFID technology, because it was likewise passive, being energized and activated by electromagnetic waves from an outside source.[2]
Similar technology, such as the IFF transponder invented in the United Kingdom in 1915, was routinely used by the allies in World War II to identify aircraft as friend or foe. Transponders are still used by most powered aircraft to this day. Another early work exploring RFID is the landmark 1948 paper by Harry Stockman, titled “Communication by Means of Reflected Power” (Proceedings of the IRE, pp 1196–1204, October 1948). Stockman predicted that “… considerable research and development work has to be done before the remaining basic problems in reflected-power communication are solved, and before the field of useful applications is explored.”
Euroman, my last post and end of discussion. And once again, I’m giving you American patented inventions, not fables from Europe:
“The digital compact disc, now commonplace in stereos and computers, was invented in the late 1960s by James T. Russell.
Russell was born in Bremerton, Washington in 1931. At age six, he invented a remote-control battleship, with a storage chamber for his lunch. Russell went on to earn a BA in Physics from Reed College in Portland in 1953. Afterward, he went to work as a Physicist in General Electric’s nearby labs in Richland, Washington.
At GE, Russell initiated many experimental instrumentation projects. He was among the first to use a color TV screen and keyboard as the sole interface between computer and operator; and he designed and built the first electron beam welder. In 1965, when Columbus, Ohio – based Battelle Memorial Institute opened its Pacific Northwest Laboratory in Richland, Washington, Russell joined the effort as Senior Scientist. He already knew what avenue of research he wanted to pursue.
Russell was an avid music listener. Like many audiophiles of the time, he was continually frustrated by the wear and tear suffered by his vinyl phonograph records. He was also unsatisfied with their sound quality: his experimental improvements included using a cactus needle as a stylus. Alone at home on a Saturday afternoon, Russell began to sketch out a better music recording system — and was inspired with a truly revolutionary idea.
Russell envisioned a system that would record and replay sounds without physical contact between its parts; and he saw that the best way to achieve such a system was to use light. Russell was familiar with digital data recording, in punch card or magnetic tape form. He saw that if he could represent the the binary 0 and 1 with dark and light, a device could read sounds or indeed any information at all without ever wearing out. If he could make the binary code compact enough, Russell saw that he could store not only symphonies, but entire encyclopedias on a small piece of film.
Battelle let Russell pursue the project, and after years of work, Russell succeeded in inventing the first digital-to-optical recording and playback system (patented in 1970). He had found a way to record onto a photosensitive platter in tiny “bits” of light and dark, each one micron in diameter; a laser read the binary patterns, and a computer converted the data into an electronic signal — which it was then comparatively simple to convert into an audible or visible transmission.
This was the first compact disc. Although Russell had once envisioned 3×5-inch stereo records that would fit in a shirt pocket and a video record that would be about the size of a punch card, the final product imitated the phonographic disc which had been its inspiration. Through the 1970s, Russell continued to refine the CD-ROM, adapting it to any form of data. Like many ideas far ahead of their time, the CD-ROM found few interested investors at first; but eventually, Sony and other audio companies realized the implications and purchased licenses.
By 1985, Russell had earned 26 patents for CD-ROM technology. He then founded his own consulting firm, where he has continued to create and patent improvements in optical storage systems, along with bar code scanners, liquid crystal shutters, and other industrial optical instruments. His most revolutionary recent invention is a high-speed optical data recorder / player that has no moving parts. Russell earned another 11 patents for this “Optical Random Access Memory” device, which is currently being refined for the market.”
Enzo,
I fully support your decision to bail out. Should have done it much sooner.
Holy shitballs, this blog never ceases to amaze. It’s now become a pissing contest of which country has more inventions. LOL!!!!
I do not believe euroman hates america. He just sees it for all its faults and beauties.
The above e pretty much reflects the divide in america. Intellectuals and progressives on one side (mostly from the North east and west coast) and less educated and bible belters on the other side.
The first lot usually are more similar to the canadians and the europeans. the second lot who usually watch fox channel for news are some what less educated and believe almost anything they are told.
what bothers me so much is that, just a few years ago, this was considered the greatest country in the world, no questions asked. But it is sad that some people have to keep reminding themselves of how great america is by virtue of some inventions (some 100s of years old) and the hollywood. Are we suffering such existential crisis and self doubt?
Very well said mishka. The divide is even more pronounced since the near financial collapse that started under Bush and then with the election of the Barack Obama. The “other side” seems to almost wish want him to fail regardless of the consequences to the nation. It comes across as irrational and hysterical with crys from birthers and death panels and the threat to secede from the union. The demise may end up being self fullfilling as they convince themselves that the end of the world is close. And their cult hero’s have effectively brainwashed the uninformed that Obama is a communist marxist socialist tree hugging YIKES black man with a hidden agenda to destroy the country. Strange that they would even pay attention to voices like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh. Both recovering drug addicts and or alcoholics. These other people seem unable to form an original position that they have not heard on Fox News. Unable to think for themselves. Now actively rooting for the collapse of Obama and you and me and yes even themselves. It is borderline insane what is happening. Like a Coup without the military. I would remind you that whatever legislation is passed in the next few years will be law effected by a President and a Congress that were elected by a majority of voting citizens in a fair and democratic manner. Would anyone want it any other way?
Interesting postings Enzo and Euroman!
What the hack are you both doing on this blog, writing about discs and plastic surgery, give me a break.
there is a simple reason why the median 2/2 in DT/brickell is still on downward track..most still populated by renters belying that true demand by owners exist..Miami/sofla unemployment/underemployment is ~25%…combine that w/ the county budget that was spared the cuts thanks to obama’s handout…so expect budget harikari for next 2 yrs as well..
So given the economic context, condo prices are still above a fair price level..
Rent 2/2 (dt/brickell) ~ $1600-1800
Condo price 2/2 ~300k: mortgage:~1800+maintenance~600+unit maintenance~100+propert tax ~500 …total: ~$3000
Now the renter would be paying $1600($1800)-600-500-100 =~$400 -$600 extra if one were to imagine that owner is accumulating equity (LOL)..so say$6000 / yr..but many prudent renters see prices falling ~20% more from here for good reasons..so 2/2 in these areas ~~220-250k would be where it would see true demand..
Now 2/2 in suburban ppines/kendal etc etc can be had for less than $100k..now those are NO BRAINERS…
Andi,
that’s where you get it wrong, I believe. First of all I’m having really hard time finding $300k units being available for less than $2000/mo. One can get lucky, but that doesn’t change the big picture. Maybe I’m wrong, so please tell me where to look.
Second, you assume that every condo owner has a mortgage to pay off. Not so, most buyers today are cash buyers who don’t have to pay 5-6% interest to the bank, plus principal repayment. All they need is to compensate themselves for 2% interest available in bank CDs. That’s $6000 per year, or $500 per month.
Now we have $2000 rent matched almost perfectly against $2100 expense.
So maybe rents have to go up from here as opposed to prices coming down???
Remember, population in America is rising strongly, but new construction cannot begin because the costs of construction exceed today’s selling prices.
Any economist knows that new supply cannot start flowing at these prices, and the US will need new supply quite badly in one year time.
euroman,
there are tons of places..unless u r looking for oceanfront.. just hit craigslist.
euro..
for example…
http://miami.craigslist.org/mdc/apa/1652103666.html
$1750 / 2br – Marvelous 2/2 for rent at Brickell (Wind by Neo)
or beautifil puerta de plmas
$1600 / 2br – PUERTA DE PALMAS – CORAL GABLES (CORAL GABLES BRICKELL GROVE MIAMI)
http://miami.craigslist.org/mdc/apa/1652196751.html….
wait till china bursts and then commodities will crash back down and w/ that construction costs..remember we are on emergency ~0% rates..rates have only one way to go UP>>>
euro..if you are making 2% on your money..go talk to some good investment advisor..use 50-50 stock/bond & you will get at least 6-8%…
Andi,
thanks for the investment advice. Before doing that next time, however, take a look at NASDAQ 10-yr chart, then take a look at today’s 2-yr Treasury note yield, and forget about 8% returns. To get to 8%, you’d have to assume risk of losing your principal altogether.
With Wind by Neo, condoreports.com shows 2010 sales proceeding already at $201/sq ft. So $1750/mo rent makes perfect sense. Prices don’t have to fall any further, those rents are already profitable.
As for China crash, if you know the exact date it will happen, share that gem of knowledge with me. I would love to take a look at your stock/bond portfolio when that happens…)))
Euroman, “Now we have $2000 rent matched almost perfectly against $2100 expense. So maybe rents have to go up from here as opposed to prices coming down???”
Now put that into the context of Miami. Literally thousands of condos-many are empty. The local economy does not provide the volume of jobs to fill thousands of $2k plus condo rentals. Rents will not rise as long as the renters are willing to demand lower prices-the supply/demand curve is in their favor for quite a while.
Agree with you that cash buyers only need to recoup 2% rate on cash. but how much longer do you think this will last? My guess is within a year that rate will be a point or more higher. And in five years, i will take the over on 4%. This is a short term cash advantage only. rents will not be able to rise to cover this expense unless wages (and thus inflation) kick into gear. buyers (or renters) cannot be expected to cover the mistakes of current owners going forward-the cash cow is gone.
From my experience as a landlord and investor. It is very hard to find $2,000/month renter. I had a very bad experience with that. It is much easier to deal with renters paying $1,000 – $1,500/month rent. Much bigger pool. This is why only 1 bds make sense. It is just my opinion based on experience that I encountered in Miami.
Euroman #104
” but new construction cannot begin because the costs of construction exceed today’s selling prices”
Simply not true. #1- why would anyone want to build more? there’s a huge over-supply right now. The US population is not rising at a clip that would necessitate more housing. #2- construction costs are very low right now. General contractors are desperate for work. Labor and materials are cheap.
Lara,
that is exactly what i have been saying on the blog for quite some time. people who are realistic and live in the miami area understand this. $2k a month in rental might be a great deal in NYC or DC, but we don’t have the large professional class here to pay that rental unless it is on the beach. maybe over the short term, but local folks who make money will buy a house rather than piss away the rental. as for being a landlord, problem is $2k price point is perfect for a 2B with roommates-not something a landlord really wants. the 1B at $1500 is probably a safer bet.
Gables, you would be surprised since you mentioned it. I had a bad experience with oceanfront direct 270 degrees views of the ocean, intercoastal, bay, marble floors , 2bd rather large apartment, great area. Yet to rent it for $2,000 was a disaster. Market rent suggested $2,500/month. Even for $2,000 it was very difficult. The types of people who lived there and then left just to give you a spectrum of Miami characters in that price range: a)a model with a child, very attractive but low class who pretended to be more than she could actually afford, b) New Russian (that’s a term to describe the type)who ran away from Russia with some stolen money. Usually very primitive personality, rude and dirty, after paying for 2-3 months stopped paying, moved out, I had to do extensive cleaning of the apartment, c) pretty decent guy, California transplant from Sillicon Valley, who did a lot of business on East coast and decided that Miami will be close to CA climate, ended hating Miami, lost his business on East Coast, moved out, but he was the best of them all.
gables,
“Now put that into the context of Miami. Literally thousands of condos-many are empty. The local economy does not provide the volume of jobs to fill thousands of $2k plus condo rentals. Rents will not rise as long as the renters are willing to demand lower prices-the supply/demand curve is in their favor for quite a while.”
I really wish people would starting putting their information into the context of Miami. Not just what they think is the perception of Miami, but where the numbers say were actually at.
As I posted before Miami’s apartment vacancy rate is low at 5.8% in Jan. This is compared to the national average of 8%. Back in ’09 when the vacancy rate was 6.8% here were the projections based on MIAMI’s factors (growth, active and future pipeline, etc.):
May 2009 6.6%
May 2010 5.2%
May 2011 3.0%
may 2012 3.0% or less
“Apartments rents are expected to hold rather steady over the next one year with a 1.0% increase possible. From 2010 to 2011 a 2.0% increase is expected and from 2011 to 2012 a more normal 3.0% increase is forecasted.”
Here is the entire report if you’d like to read it:
http://www.rpwresearch.com/pdf/6-19-09-Rental%20Apt%20Mkt-SEF-Web.pdf
Downtown Miami only has 1,189 apartment units. The rest of the units (22,955) are all condos. The majority of these units should have never been condos to begin with and will stay rented units for a LONG time.
Downtown is already 74% occupied and I’ve previously posted rent rates showing they haven’t dropped over the last year. If rental rates aren’t dramatically dropping now while 26% of the units are unoccupied why would they drop later when it’s fully occupied. Prices are at a point where they are affordable to enough people. It’s not like construction workers need to live in a brand new downtown condo with granite countertops. Over the next year or so you’ll also see people slowly move out of similar priced units in other areas like Coconut Grove for example. There are plenty of 2/2 condos that are similarly priced. There is a recent Miami Herald article that talks about how Coconut Grove is struggling, CoCoWalk is in foreclosure and cites stiff competition from Mary Brickell Village. With this area struggling when your lease is up this year on your 2/2 why not make a move to Brickell? Heck there are condos in Dadeland at similar prices. A 2/2 rented in Toscona for $2000 a couple of weeks ago. If the pool of people who can afford $2000 rent dries up it will happen in these areas before Brickell.
The average 2/2 in NY and DC run closer to $3200, so $1600 split between roommates. I’m not comparing Miami to DC or NY I’m simply responding to gables false comparison. So NY/DC your looking at $2k+ for a one bedroom or $1600+ for a 2 bedroom with a roommate. Compared to Miami which is about $15oo for a one bedroom and $1000 for a 2 bedroom with a roommate. So you’re looking at 35% to 60% more. Yes people in NY/DC make more, but not 50% more.
For these rents were talking about people that need to make about $40k (with roommate, spouse etc.) and $80k living alone. I use a rough gauge of about 40 times the monthly rent. There seems to be enough of these people in Miami to fill up the downtown condos.
Bottom line, downtown rents are more likely to be higher than lower two years from now.
Lara #113 – Wast that in SIB? If it was, the low rent was probably a result of the huge supply of condos here.
gixxer,
you have basically a rate of 26% unoccupied for the downtown area when you consider the condos are rentals. Rentals have not dropped? that is absurd. the stable rent prices are a ramification of the method of calculation, typically from professional apartment complexes (few in miami) and if you are lucky an incomplete report from mls. many rentals are not reported through this. for example i have cut my rental 20% over the past year and will most likely lop off another 10% to stay. this has NEVER been reported to mls-and my landlord is a realtor! rental prices are not that steady. You will not see $2k rentals increase in the next two years-if your lucky they will just hold steady. again, we do not have the income to make that happen. lara provides a not uncommon example of miami rentals. this is the reality of miami. gixxer i do like how you use numbers, but you truly are missing the facts on the ground in this city at times.
gables,
The numbers I posted were from a study done by Miami DDA with market research from more than just MLS and had average rental rates for RENTED units. These rates came from both Mlxchange and Focus Real Estate Advisors market studies. If their market survey said rents had decreased you’d be quoting it as gospel, but because it says rents have remained flat it must be because the reduced rents weren’t counted. People may be asking for less rent but the actual rate at which units are renting has not decreased much over the past year during a time when the vacancy rate was over40%.
So just like condo selling prices, ASKING prices are decreasing but SELLING prices are not. All I see is that more people are becoming reasonable and realizing that what they thought they were going to rent/sell for isn’t going to happen so they are reducing sales/rent prices to be in line with people who are renting/selling. But the price for people who have been renting/selling hasn’t decreased.
I agree there are tricks to keep rent’s high. Most places simply give two months free which cuts off 16% of the price. My apartment complex was still willing to give me two months free rent to renew my lease even though they were raising my monthly rent. This allows them to keep the rents high at $2200 next year when vacancy is low without actually raising rents but I technically only paid $1833 when distributing the two months free.
I’ve been calling around and looking for places if I move in July and no one yet in Miami has offered me two months fee yet.
We have a difference in opinion so I guess we’ll have to wait and see. The numbers I posted for increases were 2% – 3%. So on a $2000 two bedroom were talking about $60 a month. Rents don’t move 10% – 20% at a time. Maybe with a small landlord who only owns one or two units and was gouging you in the first place. No reputable company would ever drop their rents 20%. Maybe a few desperate homeowners who bought at the wrong price. But these people are slowly being replaced by new more stable owners.
One or two peoples experience doesn’t make something fact. I can give you two examples of friends renting single units in NY that aren’t doing great even though rents are rising and vacancies are under 2%. I’ve seen where owners have rented out units for way under market prices while they were in foreclosure and weren’t paying any HOA fees. But that doesn’t mean rents are dramatically reducing. Show me where the AVERAGE rent price is decreasing.
gables
Good point about the rental data; you must account for the shadow market MLS and apartment/multifamily figures are only about 1/2 the story (or maybe less). Only rentals listed by a realtor will show up on MLS. Think of all the private deals out there w/ no realtor involved therefore no data aggregation. I would argue that the private deals probably have lower rents on avg than the MLS deals since no broker is involved thus lessors are willing to compromise on rent a little more. I’m sure there are 1000’s of leases in Miami that no one has data on. Trying to put a $ figure on current rents or future rents in the Miami condo market at this juncture is a fruitless endeavour. Way too many unknowns.
I think most people here are looking at this from the point of view from a small investor.
http://www.condovultures.com/
Bulk Buyers Resell Nearly 400 Condos At $83 Per Foot Premium
Monday, March 22, 2010 5:45:11 am EDT
“Of the 42 bulk transactions for 3,300 units to occur since July 2008, at least 16 of the bulk buyers have successfully retraded more than 21 percent of their newly acquired condos – some 1,800 units – at an average price of $388 per square foot, according to the report based on the Condo Vultures® Bulk Deals Database™ and government records in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.
These bulk buyers, who are now reselling their units, paid an average of $305 per square foot, which translates into a 27 percent return in what typically takes a matter of months, according to the report.”
Seems like a good deal to me. Buy 60 units at an average of $305. Sell the best 12 units a couple months later at an average of $388 making a 27 percent return in months. Now rent the other 48 units out at cost plus 1% – 2%. Take a wait and see approach and sell/rent units as needed. And considering they made an average of 27% return in a couple months and rents can cover carrying cost I doubt there in a position to need to reduce rents or selling prices of the remaining units.
Drew,
“Only rentals listed by a realtor will show up on MLS. ”
The data was based not only on MLS but also market surveys. All you have to do is call around and ASK for rent prices. You guys kill me with this spooky shadow inventory deal. I mean seriously, if I want to rent a unit at a downtown condo all I have to do is check craigslist or wherever else and ask a couple of individual investors how much they’ll rent a unit to me for. Compare that to what MLS says and I’ve got an approximation.
“Trying to put a $ figure on current rents or future rents in the Miami condo market at this juncture is a fruitless endeavour. Way too many unknowns.”
This has got to be one of the funniest quotes I’ve ever hear on here. Maybe if you would have just said future rents but you put current rents in there first. There are two many unknowns to figure out current rent prices??
Drew,
Euroman #104
” but new construction cannot begin because the costs of construction exceed today’s selling prices”
“Simply not true. #1- why would anyone want to build more? there’s a huge over-supply right now. The US population is not rising at a clip that would necessitate more housing. #2- construction costs are very low right now. General contractors are desperate for work. Labor and materials are cheap.”
Euroman is correct. The current cost of new construction is less than what many distressed properties are selling at. So a builder would lose money building a property right now. Who cares if labor and materials are cheap. If it cost $150k to purchase land and build a single family home and a similar foreclosure or short sale can be bought for $130k it makes no sense to build it right now.
But the problem is that our population is ALWAYS growing. Think of it this way. If you ordered supplies to sell in your store and they took 6 months to be delivered wold you wait until the shelves are completely empty to order new items. Of course not, because you would go 6 months with nothing to sell. That what is happening here. It will take us years to go through our current inventory. But because it doesn’t make economic sense to build right now we aren’t placing any orders for what we need in the future. So when we do go through all this inventory, there won’t be a pipeline of inventory for the future.
This is why we usually go through a boom and bust cycle, just like last time, because like you most people don’t have enough sense to look back 20 years. In times like now we cut building, then when we have no inventory prices shoot up. Then everyone starts building until were over saturated and then prices drop.
gables& gixxer 1000, nice conversation regarding rents. A while ago I asked the same question. It looks like downtown rents are firming up and asked your opinion if it is true. I have to side with gixxer 1000. My personal experience showed, while I was looking for a 1 bed rental around pace park with a budget of $1250, the only one bed units in 1800 club were asking for $1350 and up. I wish I grabbed one while I could by paying $100 more than what Iwanted to pay. Now the one beds in the same building are asking $1500 and up. No one is willing to negotiate,no one is giving 1 free month either. Same goes with Quantum. Even the dreaded Opera is acting pricey. Now I am searching for a any unit in a building on the biscayne blvd itself between 18th st and 29th st.
Again with the Condo Vultures “data.” Those guys are the biggest lying shills in South Florida right now.
Gixxer 1000 — You really think the r.e. boom was because of population growth? Are you joking? The r.e. boom happened for one reason and one reason only: The most lax underwriting standards in the history of banking.
“Population growth” won’t be pushing U.S. r.e. prices up for a long, long time. Go take a look at the unemployment data and *especially* the data on long-term unemployment. There’s massive downward pressure on the average American’s standard of living right now, and the economy’s metrics suggest this could be a long-term trend.
They bought and sold in this market??? What bafooons!! Have they not been listening to the ACE????? Waith they made money? uh oohhh
slater, if you’re just looking for a rental, try Onyx, Star Lofts, Platinum, New Wave and Blue. I wouldn’t recomend buying in any of those buildings, but if you just want a rental, they should all offer similar amenities, nice views and rents in your price range.
slater #122 wait for Paramount bay with all those units I bet your dreams will come true
this is re: everglades
after the bank’s lawyers’ got their teeth kicked in over the past few months, expect the bank to play friendly with the developer and get the project reorganized thru the bankruptcy process. because of this, i’d rate everglades a buy assuming the prices makes sense.
Gixxer – “Rents don’t move 10% – 20% at a time. Maybe with a small landlord who only owns one or two units and was gouging you in the first place. No reputable company would ever drop their rents 20%. Maybe a few desperate homeowners who bought at the wrong price. But these people are slowly being replaced by new more stable owners.
”
In the past year landlords were DESPARATE to keep their tenants. Rental drops were easy. Can that continue? No. but i will keep that rate drop for the next few years without concern about rising rates. I live in a desirable building, and yet owners have been quite unable to get any consitent rate increases. a stragler now and then is all they have to show. I have known many people living here who have done similar things.
Remember most of your rentals in Miami have been via small investors. We have very few commercial apartment complexes in the areas under discussion. The recent bulk buyers may change that landscape, but it has not been the landscape over the past few years. You really need to be on the ground in Miami to understand this.
In a bit of irony, the large vacancy rates in the past year are a bit of a misnomer. Technically they were vacant, but realistically they had no true owner and thus were not really available. Thus the rental supply was not as exagerated as it appeared. This did have an effect on the rental floor we saw.
jcrimes,
you said,
this is re: everglades
after the bank’s lawyers’ got their teeth kicked in over the past few months, expect the bank to play friendly with the developer and get the project reorganized thru the bankruptcy process. because of this, i’d rate everglades a buy assuming the prices makes sense.
—> just for fun I went there on Sat and talked to their saleperson and saw the place for the first time – their saleperson want s400 per sf for a high floor (32) with direct east view for a studio condo – their saleperson claimed that the 400 sf is what their bank (b and a) is selling them for – however if you look at condoreports com they are selling for around 300per sf.
—> I am surprised they are selling for 300 per sf, cause the building looked pretty dirty on the outside and around the pool area – it looked like they haven’t kept the building up that well – due to being so dirty it looked like an older building then it is
—-> what I could see by looking at the patios of the units, there looks like there are lots of sloppy renters renting there.
—->I liked the kictens/bathrooms and the direct east views, however I was disappointed with most everything else.
—> The condos there get alot of music noise from bayside and there is no supermarket that you can walk to
DJ,thanks. I tried Onyx, Star Lofts and Blue. None had one bed for $1250. I will try the others you mentioned.
gables, good for you. i do not know where you live but you seem to make out good with your landlord. where i am looking, it is notpossible. just like you i am also wondering who is able to afford a $1500 1 bed and $2000+ for a 2 bed in miami and where are they all coming from. but they seem to exist and they are pricing out people like me.
I should clarify and change “pricing out people like me ” to “pricing out people like me in downtown”. I can still go to North Miami and get a 1 bed for $1000-$1250 but that is not what I am looking for. I even upped my budget to $1350 this month after cutting back on a few other things but still no luck at $1350. The buildings that DJ mentioned are even pricier than 1800 and Quantum!! A one bed is still can be had in 1800 for $1500 but in Onyx and Blue, they are asking $1550 or more. It is very frustrating. I keep hearing about how all these young professionals are able to afford the “cheap” downtown condos but obviously they are not talking to people like me. I also keep hearing on this blog how the flood of units coming up will make renting cheap and that does not seems to happen either. Right now I am on moth to month sharing a 2 bed. I am still trying to get out of this situation with out having to leave downtown.
slater, when i was looking for a place a few years ago, i fell in love with emerald. saw a 1B that i wanted, but the lady demanded $2k. Offered $1.8k and that was above my budget-but hey its miami. lady said no. several months later the same apartment was still on the market, and offered at $1.8k. she lost thousands due to poor judgement. i am sure this has repeated itself a thousand times over in miami. ended up in a great place so i am very glad i did not get that unit. i am sure you can get a deal if you are willing to go to brickell. up biscayne there are fewer condos so the supply is limited. but with patience to find an underwater landlord, brickell will yield plenty of 1B for under $1500. under $1200 may be a bit tough though.
slater.
Here are some in 1 beds in or near your $1250 range for the area you want. These are all newer buildings and general you can rent them for $100 less then what they are asking for.. Here are serveral buildings that a few some unit in your price range, just check out each of the buildings, and click on rentals to see them.
http://www.condoreports.com./real-estate-reports/wynwood-edgewater_market_73
Slater,
Try http://miami.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=pace+park&catAbbreviation=apa&minAsk=1000&maxAsk=1350&bedrooms=
I also imagine you can get 1 month free pretty easily.
Slater, there are quite a few listings on Craigslist in the buildings you mentioned at $1,350 and under. Do a search for “pace park” and set the rent price to $1,350 and under
Slater, have you checked Craigslist at all? Quite a few listings match your criteria.
owner
like i said, if the price is right (and i should have also qualifed my statement by noting it was on a relative basis for its competition).
i find most of these buildings to be unimpressive from a unit standpoint. you need to throw down 40 to 50k to make it work (i.e., redo the cookie cutter bathrooms, put in some nice floors, redo the finishes, e.g., the door frames and doors). the only exception is epic (i won’t repeat my love affair again with the townhome units – perhaps in another life i’ll buy one).
that said, everglades is going to come out healthier then some of the other buildings in the area. the HOA should stay under control (can’t comment on the dirty appearance of the building…i drive by it from time to time and from the street at 40 mph it looks good).
and 400 sq/ft is bs.
Slater, despite what people are asking for their rents try to negotiate and I am sure you’ll find something. From landlord’s prospective 1,2,3 months of missing rents eliminate all positives of higher rent.
RT, yes, it was with my La Perla apartment and yes it was because of oversupply of condos like in other areas as well.
slater, like everone else said, craigslist is your best bet. There are tons of condos in that area for rent, many with desperate landlords who will be willing to knock $100 or 2 off the asking price.
Since you’ve upped your budget to $1350, I’d bet you get this place for that (the views at this building are great btw): http://www.condoreports.com/contact/realtor_referral_listing.php?mlsid=D1308612
Gixxer,
you are mostly right,
however I’d like to correct you: neither labor nor materials are cheap today. Oil is 3 times 2000 level, for example. Land on the other hand is inexpensive, so you got it a bit backwards. Land in Miami Edgetown district today maybe the world’s cheapest, given location.
In any case what Joe doesn’t understand is that loose mortgage underwriting was needed to move Miami prices upward in 2005. It’s absolutely unnecessary today.
Right now, after Miami RE prices got sliced in half, even strict standards – 20% downpayment, full docs, etc – are sufficient to induce price appreciation. You don’t need a lot of new credit on measly 6000 remaining new condos.
Condo inventory in Miami is dissipating pretty fast – 400 units or so per month – and will be largely gone by the end of this year, or early next one.
And after that nothing will come online, until prices move up by at least 20%. Given the construction lag, customary Miami bidding frenzy can develop seemingly out of nowhere.
Drew,
as I pointed out, labor and materials are not cheap today. While condo prices are basically back to 2000 level, materials are priced at 3 times of that.
Also, there is no oversupply of new homes in America. 500 000 or so new units for 3 million new people cannot qualify as oversupply. Sure, for now some of new entrants can stay with parents, but they’ll be buying at some point. Demand is surely building.
Japan – with 125 million people and shrinking population – broke ground last year on 150 000 more new homes than USA, a country with 315 million and growing by 3 million each year.
I fail to understand your logic. Must be self-hypnosis or something.
JL, i never tried to search CL using set parameters like you did. It is amazing. I should have tried that before. I see that a few units in quantum are available for $1350. Also thanks to all others with suggestions.
Gixxer,
sorry for mishap. Seems like you simply replied to Drew’s post. Great reply on your part as usual. Facts vs Wishful Thinking. Facts win.)
Lara,
hope you got your – or rather their – security deposit.
I don’t know about “$2000/mo and up” submarket, but Andi seems happy to find $1750/mo rental ad, for a condo that would sell today for $240 000 max.
After HOA dues and taxes, that rent implies better than 3% return on someone’s investment.
Add to that 3,5% annual price appreciation ( according to Moody’s “bearish” forecast of 2005 prices returning by 2030, as was explained by Gixxer), and you get 6,5% total annual return, if rents are to rise with pthe price, as they surely will.
Not bad at all in today’s economic environment.
Joe,
Where did I say THIS real estate boom was because of population growth??? I could see how maybe you would have thought I meant the over building and under building but even then I clearly stated:
“This is why we usually go through a boom and bust cycle, just like LAST time”
The cause of this bust may be different but the result will probably be similar. Read this article from 1982 and you’d almost think they were talking about today:
http://www.nytimes.com/1982/03/07/realestate/miami-market-readjusts-as-surge-in-buying-ends.html?&pagewanted=all
1973-74 recession. New home building didn’t gain momentum until 1978. Then all of a sudden in July 1979 people were lining up for Brickell key condos before anything was even there. Everyone one got financing.
Quote: ”If they breathe, we will finance them,”. Speculation was rampant.
Then by 1982 the party was over.
Quote: “Now, many of the speculators find they have no buyers and are unable, or unwilling, to go to closing. In some cases, the buyer is walking away from deposits of $50,000. Others are bringing lawsuits to free themselves of contractual obligation.”
Sounds a lot like today. Walking away from $50k and that’s $50k in 1982!!! Here were estimates at the time:
“According to Lewis Goodkin, a marketing research expert, there are about 12,000 luxury, waterview condominiums on the market or under construction in Dade County. He says it could take three to five years to absorb that number. He defines luxury condominiums as those priced over $100,000.”
Again, sounds a lot like today. Here are some more quotes:
“Mr. Goodkin believes that 43 to 46 percent of the luxury apartments were bought by speculators and that the buyers today are 50 to 85 percent speculators and investors.”
“To others long experienced with the cyclical nature of Florida residential sales, the current market is seen as just another cycle. To them, this is the ideal time to start building.”
”Take it from one who has seen peaks and valleys,” said Lawrence J. Aberman, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Williams Island, which will deliver its first units in January 1984. ”The time to start a development of this nature is when we are in a valley, not when we are heading toward a peak.”
We should be starting projects now so that they’ll be coming on line in 2 – 4 years. But instead we’ll stop everything and won’t start again until probably 2012 when inventory is extremely low. Prices will most likely spike a bit until the projects start finishing in 2014. Then we can sit around and wait for everyone to forget the lessons learned and in 2034 we’ll do it all again.
Joe,
CondoVultures is simply stating information that present in public records. Nothing different than Condoreports.com. Do I think Peter Zalewski is some sort condo genius, no. He simply takes public records and compiles the data into one place. The average of bulk purchases was $305 per sq ft. The average of the sales of the units after the bulk purchase was $388. The average return is 27%. Some investors could have made a 5% return and some could have make a 50% return. This is nothing that I or anyone here cant do (well maybe some). The only difference is that he’s smart enough to package it in an easy to read form and selling it to people while I instead simply argue with random people on the internet with it.
And why does changing your position make you a lying shill. The market has clearly changed. Why shouldn’t he change with it. Once it becomes clear to Renter Tom that the market has changed I’m sure he’ll change back to Buyer Tom. Will he then be a lying shill too?
is there anything that can be done to the deadbeats that don’t pay thier condo dues other than a lien. I hate riding the elevator in the morning with a neighbor that owes over $20K in dues drives a new mercedes and the wife is in head to toe Loius Vuitton!
Condo dues help,
LOL, sorry to laugh at your misfortune, but that is just so typically Miami, it’s comical.
“Also, there is no oversupply of new homes in America. 500 000 or so new units for 3 million new people cannot qualify as oversupply.” -euroman
Care to elaborate or do you just pull figures out of your ass? And why do “3M new people” need a NEW home? What about the 1M+ vacant homes?
Conco Dues
Time to get creative my friend. Use your imagination. I can think of a half dozen things that would could make these people mad as hell. All within the boundries of the law of course : – ).
Anyone familiar with the Akoya Building? Any info would be greatly appreciated. Thx.
thier is not much that can be done other the liens and disconnecting fobs restricting access to certain amenities . We have tried speaking to these people but they have no remorse nor do they feel guilty about the fact that I as a neighbor am paying on their behalf! Association foreclosure is the next step but if they have mortgage its not very easy to take temporary possesion while the bank finally forecloses on it. We have also removed their valet privelages and they must come downstairs to pick up their guests. The front desk will not send them up.
Condo dues help said: “We have tried speaking to these people but they have no remorse nor do they feel guilty about the fact that I as a neighbor am paying on their behalf!”
– People like this need to go to jail! Trust me, this isn’t the only thing or the first time where they are scamming people! Do a public records search, including titles, mortgages, etc. and you will uncover more. Perhaps you could slip some “Cash4Gold” flyers under their door….hint hint….. 🙂
Condo dues help:
You are correct and yet incorrect.
You are correct in that liens and foreclosure are, absent language to the contrary in the contract or HOA rules, your only course of action.
I would be careful disconnecting the fobs, however. The “bad guy” here is the dead beat loser who refuses to pay his or her HOA fees. While this makes him/her/them classless, clueless, hapless trash – – by disconnecting the fobs you run the risk of stooping to their level. Moreover, and unfortunately, until you foreclose, they have a right to use those amenities — – like it or not – – and by disconnecting the fobs, thereby restricting access, you run the risk of violating their rights and opening yourself/yourselves (whichever) to a host of nasty legal consequences.
My advice: take the high road (liens and foreclosure). After all, the HOA is the “good guy”/white hat under the facts you presented and should remain so until the dispute is resolved by a court of law.
scriv
Another forecast for Miami -22.5%. Interesting it was posted on realtor’s site.
http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2010032303?OpenDocument
Condo dues help….see:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/hamp-applicants-tanned-and-juiced.html
It is time to pull the plug on these freeloaders…gone are the days people leached off family and friends, now to end it from the govt and the responsible taxpayers!
condo dues help
if your condo serves as the distributor of cable tv and internet, cut that off. its not a necessity nor is it needed for safety. power, ac and water are a different story, but if under the control of the HOA, could be considered. life is tough to live in such an environment. if an older building, install the hurricane shutters, since a unit without paying hoa must obviously be vacant.
Miami2009,
You said,
Anyone familiar with the Akoya Building? Any info would be greatly appreciated. Thx.
—> I lived (rented fully time) in a condo in Akoya for 2 years, before I bought my condo in the infinity building in brickell, so I know ALOT about the building and the area
—> if you provide me with a list of questions I will reply back with the anwsers..
Drew, what numbers do you want me to elaborate on. Population growth? Number of new homes built?
Which one are you unaware of? I’ll give you links, if you can’t google these things yourself.
Anyways, I can see that you are clueless about number of vacant homes too (speaking about pulling those out of someone’s ass)… hate to tell you but there are more than 12 million of them. Not 1 plus million.
But great deal of those are in failed cities (Detroit, Cleveland, etc) and suburbs (Stockton, Imperial Valley, etc) and they’ll never be occupied again. They’ll be bulldozed and turned into parks or abandoned to weeds. Most of them already are in such a state of disrepair, that rehabilitation is pointless.
Drew,
What Euroman is saying is that we ADD 3 million people to America each and every year. Of course all 3 million of these people don’t need a house. Some of this growth is due to immigration while some is due to our fertility rate. Historically this has translated into us adding 1.5 million new housing units every year. But during the boom we got over zealous and started adding new houses at at rate of about 2 million per year. Because it takes months to years from start to completion it took time for all this excess inventory to really be noticed. 2003 is when we really started adding too much housing and this didn’t stop until 2006. And because of the lag wasn’t really noticed until 2007.
But now because of the economy and the fact that new construction is more expensive were only adding about 500k each year. We continue to burn through the excess inventory so there is no need to build right now. But again the problem is that it takes months to years from start to completion to add housing. If we continue at this rate, a year from now inventories will be low. We should be increasing production now so that next year new units will be coming on line, but were not. If there was one purchasing manager for all of housing he could easily look at it and adjust. But the problem is where talking about thousands of different companies that are going to make the best short term decision for their company. The same reason why thousands of builders were building too many houses knowing it would hurt them years from now in 2003 is the same reason why builders aren’t building more houses now, short term profits.
So you see 1 million vacant homes. Add that to the 500k that were adding and we’ll blow through those 1.5 millions homes in a year. Then what? Well have another 500k in the pipeline for the following year but again we’ll need 1.5 million more homes, so we’ll be 1 million short. Now more than likely we’ll start to slowly increase to production. And then add that to the fact that some places have more excess supply than others, and this will play out differently in different areas.
Gixxer 1000 — The Miami condo market didn’t change overnight, but the “expert analysis” coming from Condo Vultures certainly did. They’re running a classic pump-and-dump, except they added “deflate” as their first step — i.e., deflate-and-pump-and dump.
Euroman — You seem to be confusing occupancy rates with inventory. The idea that Miami could be less than a year from being overbuilt is laughably absurd. I’d be willing to bet that 90% of the condos currently being rented (or available for rent) in Miami were intended to be flipped. I find it very, very difficult to believe that those unit owners will just happily remain landlords for the next 5-10 years.
——
Anyway, I love how this site has become a microcosm of the internet itself. Everyone is an expert, with actual subject-matter expertise a mere afterthought. This site, in particular, is now being dominated by two people who neither live in Miami nor apparently spend much (if any) time in Miami. Meanwhile, the rest of us who actually live in (or have lived in) Miami are just a bunch of ignorant mouth-breathers. Awesome!
Owneratinfinity thanks for your reply and offer to help. I see that condoreports has the Akoya building health index at 37, which is low.
Questions I have are:
1. How is the general condition of the building?
2. Is the HOA sound and does it have proper reserves?
3. Any special assessments that you are aware of?
4. Renter to owner ratio?
What is your overall view on the building? Why did you prefer Infinity over Akoya when you made your purchase? Thanks in advance!
Joe,
you always seem to avoid providing hard facts and hard numbers, and for a good reason, as I see it. Your line of reasoning ” I live here, therefore I’m right” is probably the one that could be characterized as “laughably absurd”.
Should I live in Greece to know that’s it’s a troubled country, or in Singapore to conclude that it isn’t? Don’t think so. In fact the people the most blinded to Greece’s problems are probably Greeks themselves. Big things are better seen from a distance.
How is it my fault that you don’t know what you are talking about?
Loved your adorably childish “I bet”, though.
How would you bet, and on what precisely?
Joe,
Again, who cares what game condo vultures is running. If CondoVultures says that 2+2=4 are you going to say its not because the want to talk up the market. You can take the spin out of the article but the facts are still the facts. Bulk buyers are purchasing units and have already begun selling off some of those units at a profit. I don’t see why your so eager to believe someone prediction but unwilling to believe actual facts?
“This site, in particular, is now being dominated by two people who neither live in Miami nor apparently spend much (if any) time in Miami. Meanwhile, the rest of us who actually live in (or have lived in) Miami are just a bunch of ignorant mouth-breathers. Awesome!”
Where have I said that all the people who live in Miami are a bunch of ignorant mouth-breathers? I have agree and disagreed with a lot of people here. I don’t disagree with you just because you’ve lived in Miami.
And why do my OPINIONS bother you so much. Usually I simply post a bunch of facts (median sales price, price per sq ft, units sold, etc.) and use that information to draw a conclusion. I have ASKED people to look at the data and tell me where I’m wrong. You just ignore the facts and tell me I’m wrong because I don’t live there.
None of us knows what is actually going to happen. You have an opinion and I have an opinion. If I’m wrong then I’ll be wrong. Why do you care. It’s not like you have to purchase anything because I say so. Renter Tom posted the Fiserv Moody’s.com prediction that prices will drop 30% by Sep 30th. He thinks it’s possible and I don’t. The fact that he thinks its possible doesn’t bother me. We’ll simply wait and see. Do I think he’s a ignorant mouth-breather? No. I just think his opinion is based off of more political-social issues and not Miami specific market data.
I do think there are a lot of people here that simply watch a couple clips on CNBC and read a couple articles and therefore have a very uninformed opinion. But that’s the nature of people in general. You say so yourself:
“Everyone is an expert, with actual subject-matter expertise a mere afterthought.”
Everyone here talks like there an expert. I definitely don’t consider myself an expert but I do try to look at the actual data behind most arguments and have encouraged others to do so. Right or wrong I try to gain something from most discussions and I stand more to gain when the people I’m debating with are doing so with actual facts. Something that many people around here don’t seem to care about.
If neither of us are experts on real estate then everything you say applies just as much to your argument as mine. The only difference is that I’m actually using facts in my arguments and you’re not.
scrivener (#155), are you implying that by shutting of some deadbeats’ fobs you’re running the risk of being sued for constructive eviction? LOL, gimme a fuckin break and put the law school text book down.
Computer Consultant,
Here is the article that the Realtor based those numbers on:
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_realestate/2010/snapshots/2.html
Scroll down to the bottom and look at the footnotes. They are prediction a 22.5% drop from Q1 2010 to Q1 2011. Right now it looks like the Q1 median sales price is $200k. For their prediction to come true the median price needs to drop by $45k in the next 9 months. If I move to Miami I’d love it to be true but it seems doubtful.
But here is the odd part. If you look at the bottom it says that the source of the info is again Fiserv and Moody Economy.com. The same group that predicted the 30% drop by Sept 30. How are you going to make a 30% drop by Sept 30 but only a 22.5% drop 4 months later??
Miami2009 your Questions are:
1. How is the general condition of the building?
—> Its OK, it was completed in 2004. It has some cracks on the walls on the outside of the building that the assoc was trying to get the developer to fix. On the 7th floor where the tennis courts are, the stamped concrete floor is cracking and needs to be repaired.
2. Is the HOA sound and does it have proper reserves?
—> since the building was orig sold during ther 100% financing days to investors who re-sold them again for even more money in 2006, alot of investors are stuck with condos that are worth a lot less then what they paid for them, so there is many of the owners are not paying their taxes nor then maintence fees on time. So lots of repos and short sales – alot a bad loans in the building
—> the HOA are very low (too low) . This becuase they don’t collect any reserves
—> But they have not made any assesments yet, but I heard that they were going to charge everyone 1 addition month of maintanence to make up for the owners that are not paying their maintenance.
3. Any special assessments that you are aware of?
—> no, not yet, however I think they will be to soon if something big happens, since there are nit reserves.
4. Renter to owner ratio?
—> tons to renters, Nearly all the samller 1 bed condos are rented and many of the larger ones are rented too.
—-> the assoc and building staff is keeping the building up ok considing the large number of renters.
—-> the smallest 1 1 unit (683) sf for renting for $1300-1500 which is low for a newer
building on the sand, so there are alot of short temp lower class renters in the building.
—-> the buildings management is Ok and they are doing the best job they can, however it’s ran like it’s a small little building, not like a building that is one largest in miami beach with over 80 1 millon dollar 3bed 2.5 bath units contained in it.
What is your overall view on the building?
—> it was and still is the best value on the beach for a newer building for buying or for renting
—> it’s less then 10mins from the 195 highway, if you go down alton road, so it’s quick to get to thr 95 highway
—> the area where it is OK however just 7 blocks north the area gets a little seedly
—> I think they will have a large assement soon
—> with all the local renters, renting the cheaper units short term for the summer it gets to be a mad house a bit, – 4th of July was like a frat house in the building – I would be pissed if I was someone that owned a 1 millon unit there during 4th of July.
Why did you prefer Infinity over Akoya when you made your purchase?
—> PRICE – it would of cost me double to buy the same size unit in Akoya as the unit I bought at Infinity
—> my Infinity condo is my perm home, however it I had to rent it, I could rent it for the same as what I am paying per month to own it (P&I, Taxes and Maint fee). If I bought a simlar size unit at Akoya, I would have a $1000 loss per month it I had to rent it
—> I have noticed that renting a condo on the beach that you own you take a big loss while if you rent a condo in downtown/brickell (and get a good deal) you break even – So there is not enough value to buy on the beach right now
—> I would be pissed if I bought a condo in akoya and some low life is renting the same size condo next door to me for $1000 less then I am paying to own my unit and they are having nosily parties etc.
—> I liked living right on the beach, however the value I rec’d by buying my condo in infinity is more important then living on the beach – plus I am a big bike rider so it only takes me around 30mins to get to the beach from brickell
—> I think my infinity building is as well or better built then Akoya is, plus Infiniy was a large roof top deck on the 52nd floor with amazing east and west view that Akoya doesn’t have. Plus Infinity has better better lobby and common areas then Akoya
—> all my friends (including peolpe lived at Akoya) think that Infinity is a better building and think that the only thing better about Akoya is the fact that it is on the actually beach.
—> Infinity is a MUCH MUCH more professionaly ran building then Akoya with a better staff. Infinity treats me like a king in Infinity, but I never felt that way in Akoya (maybe I was not a owner)
—> I am saving $700 per month owning at Infinity then renting at Akoya
—> My phone (with unlimitted local and long US distance calls), high speed internet, and cable (with a local HD channels) are including in my maintenance – Only basic cable is included in Aokya
—> Infinity is closer to jobs, since it on the mainland
—> Akoya is a bit far from south beach and to nicer resterents and shopping
—-> please let me know if you have any other questions
Gixxer 1000,
Between your gutt and your research what to think will happen to all the condo units/buildings in the following three miami areas assuming that the encomey get better and there is not a really large condo building build out again in the next “5 years” AND the next “15 years”.
1) North Brickell on or near the bay (from river south to 25th street)
2) Downtown on or near the bay (from river north to 395 highway)
3) Midtown/park pace/edgewater near the bay (395 highway to 195 highway)
owneratinfinity #169 – A fantastic, insightful, experienced post! Excellent and thank you! I wish more posts were like that! 🙂
US Census Bureau says that within a year from July1, 2008 to July 1, 2009, Miami -Ft.Lauderdale metropolitan area population had increased by 45229 people. It will surely increased by similar amount by this coming July. It balooned by a whopping 539 059 since April 2000 to July 1, 2009, and will likely get close to 600 000 increase within 4 months from now.
How could Miami residential market avoid becoming MUCH tighter when new construction all but evaporated?
Anyone?
http://www.census.gov/popest/metro/tables/2009/CBSA-EST2009-05.csv
http://www.census.gov/popest/metro/tables/2009/CBSA-EST2009-07.csv
Gixxer,
so Moody’s / Fiserv are now predicting 4-month 8% Miami RE price surge starting Sept 30.2009?
What a stunning turnaround!!!!
OK, OK, maybe not. I guess these jokesters are simply shifting goalposts, knowing full well that their 30% drop prediction is becoming a reputational noose.
I hope that Renter Tom isn’t the last man holding this bag of horse manure.
Euroman — Quite an argument you’ve crafted there: You don’t need to live in Greece to know that it’s troubled, and apparently you don’t need to live in Miami to know things are far, far BETTER than the locals* seem to think.
(* Um, you know, the people who actually know other people in Miami, and look for good jobs in Miami, and try to find non-deadbeat renters in Miami who can afford $2,000/mo. for more than the first 3 months, etc., etc., etc.)
Please excuse me now. I need to find a web site about Detroit at which I can tell the locals how “they’re just not seeing things clearly” and how everything is much rosier than it seems.
Thank you DJ,
I don’t know what kind of lawyer scriv is but he sure doesn’t seem to be a RE lawyer with the advice he has given on this blog. He may be a very good ambulance chaser but I definately wouldn’t hire him for anything related to RE.
just saying!
can i take back that ambulance chaser line?
That was a personal attack and not a nice thing to say.
I beg your pardon.
DJ:
You want a break? One break, coming up.
——————BREAK ————————–
Oh, and to answer your other question: no I was not saying that disconnecting the fobs was necessarily constructive eviction. I believe I said that it could lead to disputes regarding contractual obligations. Constructive eviction is an entirely different issue.
scriv
scriv,
How about the fact that the deadbeats have already broken the terms of their contract with HOA by not paying dues and racking up a $20k balance? Once a contract has been breached by one party, the other party doesn’t have an obligation to hold up to their end.
For example, I enter into a contract to sell you my condo, and at closing you fail to pay me, you’ve breaching the contract. Am I still obligated to deliver you the condo? Of course not. You can’t sue me for breach because you’ve already breached the contract.
There’s the text book example, in the real world, no judge is going to entertain a case where an HOA turned off someones fob so they couldn’t use the pool anymore in response to their owing $20k in back dues.
DJ:
Great question!
But your example here concerns apples and oranges. I am going to skip your condo sale hypothetical – – no offense but it is just not that interesting.
When you are dealing with deadbeats, the issue is choice of remedy. I believe – – someone chime in if I am mistaken here – – that the HOA’s choice of remedies for a “deadbeat breach” such as the one you proposed is limited to lien and foreclosure. “Self-help” remedies like baring access to amenities are not allowed (this includes, but is not limited to, dragging the deadbeat into the parking lot and flogging them with the HOA rules, etc.) – – although I will give you that they probably make the HOA and owners in good standing feel better.
Again, this is an issue of remedies, not who is right and who is wrong.
I will also grant you that when you are talking about Florida equity, courts can be and are quite creative in their awards.
But you also have to recognize that an HOA taking affirmative and independent action such as prohibiting a deadbeat – – or quite possibly their tenant, who has legal rights of use and access similar to those of the owner/”deadbeat” – – from using the pool in the absence of a court order permitting such action, could get the HOA into legal trouble – – coyote-ugly trouble. The HOA would be interfering with the tenant’s use and enjoyment of the property, the lease agreement between the owner and the tenant, the owner’s rightful use. etc. – – – ugly, ugly, ugly.
scriv
Joe,
One persons experience is not necessarily the average persons experience. If you know so much more about Miami than Euroman then simply tell him where he’s wrong, instead of telling him he’s wrong just because he doesn’t live there.
I understand that people who live or have lived in Miami know things about Miami that I don’t. But you’re not an expert on a place just because you lived there. I think a lot of people that live in Miami (or any place) assume a lot of things and because they see it day to day they never go check it. They see a lot of poor people, a lot of uneducated people, etc. so they come to some arbitrary conclusion without checking. People here have told me that the percentage of people with a degree is lower than 20% but census says 21% (which I agree is low). Who should I believe. The random internet poster who couldn’t have counted all the people or the census who has a study and says they are statistically accurate within less than 1%. No one makes any good money but tax records AND bureau of labor statistics from 2008 says that while the median household income is $35k, 15% are making $75k or more. So I conclude that there is a small middle class and a large workforce of uneducated workers. With 80% of the people without a degree (more if we use estimates from people on here living in Miami) what type of job and pay do you expect these people to have?
No real critiques to my argument, but simply I don’t live here so I don’t understand.
gables wrote this:
“Remember most of your rentals in Miami have been via small investors. We have very few commercial apartment complexes in the areas under discussion. The recent bulk buyers may change that landscape, but it has not been the landscape over the past few years. You really need to be on the ground in Miami to understand this.”
I can respect that. At least gables is writing exactly why he thinks I’m wrong. The problem with the argument is that I’m talking about going forward and gables is talking about the past few years. But gables acknowledges that the recent bulk buyers are changing the landscape.
Euroman is simply pointing out that while we have excess inventory now we are still growing at a fast rate and because new construction is more expensive than distress properties we are not starting inventory now that we’ll eventually need in the future. Drew asks where he is getting his numbers and he post the links to census information and you say he’s wrong because he doesn’t live in Miami. How would you or anyone else know more about the population growth than the census?
We can be wrong that the market is currently stabilizing. But that doesn’t mean the facts that we are presenting are wrong. Euroman and my U.S. Census information is wrong because we don’t live there, CondoVultures public record transactions are wrong because they want to pump up the market. Why do you care more about the messenger than the message. Tell us why the U.S. Census is wrong or why the Miami Dade clerk of courts information is wrong. Or simply acknowledge that its right and provide an alternate theory for how it helps to lead to your conclusion.
I’m sure with enough research you could know more about Detroit than the average out of work factory worker.
Total population is not the right metric when estimating the time it will take to work off the excess housing stock. Household formation is far more relevant.
http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com/Perspective/PerspectiveDetail18023.htm
“number of households increased by 398,000 between March 2008 and March 2009. This was the smallest increase since 1983, and the second-smallest increase in the history of this statistic, which dates back to 1947. ”
Doubtful that March 2009-March 2010 will look any better given the continued deterioartion in employment throughout that period.
Taking today’s new home sales release of 315k annualized rate, we are only working off 100k of housing stock per year at the current rates. Without meaningful job creation, the household formation rate is not going to return to a more normalized level.
scriv,
You’re probably right about choice of remedies. However, I’m going to assume the condo docs contain provisions for restiricting amenities, etc. in the case of deadbeat homeowner.
Even if they don’t, I believe the law will soon be changing to allow what we’re talking about now. Check out Florida H.B. 329, which proposes an amendment to Fla. Stat. 718.106. The amendment would include the right to restrict access to common areas, such as the pool, etc., as well as various other sanctions, on a owner who is 90+ days delinquent on dues.
I realize this isn’t the law of land yet, but hopefully it will be soon. In the mean time, you’re probably right that foreclosure or filing a lien would be the correct remedy under the law, supposing the condo docs don’t contain a provision to restrict access, etc.
Euroman: What the heck are you talking about? I have concluded you are just a blog troll, adding nothing to the discussion whatsoever. He just tries to bait people with stupid and knowingly false post. Yes, South Florida DID have a net influx of population, but that has since changed so what you propose is currently false. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
DJ – Some creative solutions would be nice in dealing with this deadbeat. However, doesn’t the “contract” specify the remedies upon breach? The cold shoulder approach, with letters to the owner, then real legal action is probably the safer approach as you want to be the good guy in a court of equity. You could also pass rules or amendments. Cutting off FOBs would be serious. It is fun to fantasize though! 🙂 I suppose you could always issue them a 1099 for forgiveness of debt if they end up going belly up and stiffing the HOA….oh, the IRS will collect. Sweet.
Owneratinfinity thank you for that informative review of the Akoya. This was exactly what I was looking for. We certainly need more posts like this!
(Btw, i did leave a comment previously but seems to have never made it on here.)
South Florida home, condo sales edge upward
Home and condo sales in South Florida were up modestly — even as national sales registered their third consecutive decline.
BY JIM WYSS
“Miami-Dade’s performance was weaker, as the number of single-family homes sold from January to February was up just 2 percent and median prices rose 4 percent to $191,100. Condo sales were virtually flat, up just 1 percent versus the previous month, as prices slid 11 percent to $126,100.”
“Compared to last February’s anemic levels, home sales were up modestly, but prices slid 2 percent in Miami-Dade and 13 percent in Broward. Condominium sales, however, spiked 35 percent in Miami-Dade and 41 percent in Broward on price declines of 14 percent and 17 percent respectively, showing that real estate will sell for the right price.”
Condos: Month to month prices down 11%. Month to month sales up 1%. Year over year prices down 15%. Year over year sales up 35%.
Houses: Month to month prices up 2%. Month to month sales up 4%. Year over year prices down 2%. Year over year sales up 9%.
” Driving the dynamic in the condo segment were investors and speculators buying units in bulk. That gooses sales but depresses prices, said Jack Winston, an analyst with Goodkin Consulting in Coral Gables.”
“There’s been some news that condo buyers who were buying in bulk were flipping again and making some profits,” he said. “All the buyers are feeling a little more comfortable and confident.”
Someone other than CondoVultures admitting that the recent bulk purchasers are making a profit.
“At the current rate of sales, there were enough homes on the market in Miami-Dade and Broward to last 14 months and 10 months, respectively, according to data provided by EWM Realtors. For condominiums, there is enough inventory to last about 21 months in Miami-Dade and 11 months for Broward.”
I had condo supply at 17 months and they have 21 months. Which is weird because I used info from EWM as well. The database is down right now so I can’t double check.
Renter Tom,
you siad,
owneratinfinity #169 – A fantastic, insightful, experienced post! Excellent and thank you! I wish more posts were like that!
—> thanks for the kind words and sorry for all my typos, but I write ALOT of emails as part of my job where I must proof read and not have any typos, so I hate proof reading and typing emails, so that is why I don’t proof read my comments on this blog.
—->Being an end-user and through all my research, I know ALOT about all the middle of the road condo buildings on or near the bay in Miami Brickell – Downtown – Midtown and I would be happy to share what I have learned on any of these buildings, if so asked.
—-> My opinions are from the point of an end user, so the many investors on this blog may not be concerned with the pros/cons that I see in these buildings, since they are not going to live there.
Again from realtors themselves:
“Miami-Dade’s performance was weaker, as the number of single-family homes sold from January to February was up just 2 percent and median prices rose 4 percent to $191,100. Condo sales were virtually flat, up just 1 percent versus the previous month, as prices slid 11 percent to $126,100.
The news — along with data showing the region is chipping away at the number of unsold homes — suggests South Florida is slowly crawling out of the real estate crisis that appears to have reached its low point in April of 2009.
Compared to last February’s anemic levels, home sales were up modestly, but prices slid 2 percent in Miami-Dade and 13 percent in Broward. Condominium sales, however, spiked 35 percent in Miami-Dade and 41 percent in Broward on price declines of 14 percent and 17 percent respectively, showing that real estate will sell for the right price.”
With 11% price drop Jan to Feb, 30% drop prediction by Sep is not that far off…..
“I realize this isn’t the law of land yet, but hopefully it will be soon. “- – DJ
Amen brother!
I have no sympathy for these bottom feeding deadbeats. If the Florida legislature can do something to help, play on. A legal solution is far superior to a case-by-case judge-made equitable solution in my mind.
scriv
Miami2009,
you said,
Owneratinfinity thank you for that informative review of the Akoya. This was exactly what I was looking for. We certainly need more posts like this!
—> happy to help, one thing more i forget to say is that i have a much better view in infinity since my infinity condo is on the 50 and 51 floors facing directly east while my condo at akoya was on the 29th floor facing south.
http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/100325/story1.shtml
Supprised no one posted this article on the new Publix store coming to the Edgewater/Pace Park area.
That’s great news about the Publix. Thanks for sharing Dave.
Miami Today article: 51% of Miami-Dade’s unsold condos are in Brickell…
http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/100325/story7.shtml
computer consultant,
“With 11% price drop Jan to Feb, 30% drop prediction by Sep is not that far off…..”
Two points about the 30% prediction.
1) That prediction was for the median price of all housing. Single family homes rose 2% this month. The median price for all housing in Jan was $200k and again $200k in Feb. So we still need a 30% drop in the next 6 months.
2) The median sales prices for condos and single family homes fluctuates on average about 7% each month. It seems pretty silly to argue that the market is actually changing this amount each and every month. Which is why most people look at quarterly averages and trends. Here are the month percent changes over the past year.
Jan – Feb: -3%
Feb – Mar: 5%
Mar – Apr: -18%
Apr – May: 7%
May – Jun: 1%
Jun – Jul: -4%
Jul – Aug: 7%
Aug – Sep: -12%
Sep – Oct: 6%
Oct – Nov: 11%
Nov – Dec: -1
Dec – Jan: -7%
Jan – Feb: -15%
In the same time frame here are the monthly changes to single family homes:
Sorry I accidently hit the submit button here is the rest;
In the same time frame here are the monthly changes to single family homes:
Jan – Feb: -13%
Feb – Mar: 10%
Mar – Apr: -28%
Apr – May: 17%
May – Jun: 17%
Jun – Jul: -19%
Jul – Aug: 2%
Aug – Sep: -4%
Sep – Oct: -12%
Oct – Nov: 6%
Nov – Dec: 20%
Dec – Jan: -21%
Jan – Feb: 2%
As you can see the median sales prices varies every single month. Arguing the actual market dropped 11% using month over month sales is a little premature. I doubt very seriously the market for single family homes jumped 26% between Oct – Dec and then fell 21% through Jan and then back up 2% in Feb. If the condo prices move up in the next month or two I’m sure you’re not going to argue that they are actually going up in value.
This just reflects what is selling that particular month. $125k condos and $190k houses. Units that would really benefit from the tax credit. As gables mentioned before the expiration of the tax credit is affecting sales. Sales of low end units are up. By the end of Sep the tax credit will have been expired for a while so I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
Petronius,
You seem to be missing the forest from the trees. The article that you posted is saying the exact same thing that Euroman is saying.
“The recession is behind the slowdown in household formation. Hard times have forced many of those who have lost their jobs, their homes, or both to move in with family or friends. In addition to this, immigration is down. As a result, the number of persons per household, which had been dropping in recent decades, increased in both 2007 and 2008”
Because of the economy people are forced to move in with family members thereby reducing the need for housing. But even though we have been decreasing our need for housing we still have been adding millions of people every single year. Therefore the demand for housing is building. When times get better these people are not going to want to continue to live in their mothers basement and commenting on this blog. So when the economy gets better things are going to turn around fast.
“The decline in household formation suggests that once the economy gets back on track, and job growth resumes, housing markets could tighten QUICKLY as the formation rate increases, and housing starts could take off. This might happen as soon as next year.”
It seems like you only read the first paragraph. Usually the conclusion comes at the end. This is the type of stuff that I’m talking about. People are so blinded by their desire to see the market continue to fall that they completely overlook anything to the contrary. Why would you post an article that predicts that the housing market will turn quickly as soon as next year to refute someones claim that the housing market will turn quickly next year?????
Guys,
From DJs link concerning Brickell condos:
“Of those, 66%, or 6,856 units, have closed, leaving 3,546 completed but unsold new units”
—-> of the 3,546 completed but unsold new units, around 1600 (almost 1/2 of them are in Icon) so if you don’t count icon their is around 1600 -1700 new units in brickell left to sale – So in my eyes that is not that bad.
NEW PUBLIX:
—> new publix in Midtown is worderful news!! It’s about time and it will make end users like myself more interested in buying a condo that area.
Gixxer 1000 — I admire your willingness to spend a lot of time running numbers, but I don’t have time to get bogged down with all of that nor do I trust much of the data.
For one thing, a lot of these surveys and “data” on which you keep basing your commentary are self-reported. Just as the average (straight) man lies about how many women he’s bedded, the average So. Fla. resident tends to overstate (if not dramatically overstate) his or her financial position in life.
For another, I’m a big believer in simple “eyeball” tests. If Miami had even half as many well-paid young professionals as you and Euroman claim, and if Miami was so severely underbuilt on higher-end r.e. until the recent boom, why is there still a 2-year backlog of unsold new condos, despite the fact that prices have dropped by 50% or so, despite the massive government guarantees and subsidies, and despite the $8,000 r.e. buyer tax credit, etc., etc.? You’ve repeatedly and stridently claimed that 1 in 5 (or more) jobs in Miami are classified as “professional,” yet you keep failing to explain how it’s possible that, out of 500,000 or 1,000,000 “professionals,” a measly 30,000 buyers — a number representing just 3% of the so-called “professionals” in Miami — still haven’t stepped forward and sold out the new-construction market.
As for Euroman’s “45,000 new people in Miami this year” claim, even if that number is true, statistics tell us that over 40,000 of them will have no better than a high school degree, with a large number (if not a majority) not even having that. How many of these folks are potential condo buyers? Maybe 3% of them? The idea that Miami is already falling behind on planning and developing even MORE new r.e. inventory is so laughably absurd it’s a new high (or low) for this blog — and that’s saying something.
DJ,
Again another news source uses a catchy title that’s misleading. I’m sure a few people won’t even read it and simply quote the headline but actually this article has a very bullish position. Everything in that article was a repeat of the information in the MiamiDDA study from Dec. The 3,546 number is directly from the study and only counts sales up to Dec so the number is probably less. But here is some key information specifically to Brickell that I didn’t have access to before.
“The pace of Brickell condo sales in the over $500,000 market — about 20 a month — represents a 16-month supply,but the absorption rate for resale units in the under $500,000 category, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the inventory, is about 70 per month.That’s only about 9.5 months of inventory,” Mr. Kawas said. “At eight to nine months, we call it a seller’s market. So we’ve come a long way in the past 18 months.”
I wouldn’t go as far to say it will be a sellers market in 9 months but what do I know, I don’t live in Miami.
But when looking specifically at Brickell:
Condo Supply
Under $500k: 9.5 months
Over $500k: 16 months
Seems like Brickell is making out pretty well, especially considering the bulk of the remaining units are mostly at Icon, Mynt, and Infinity. Icon will seems like they’re going to hold out sell a little at a time and Owneratinfinity seems to think Infinity is at a decent value for owners.
Other quotes that stood out:
“In the under $300,000 category, he said, very little inventory remains. We’ve had buyers from Tokyo and Israel who don’t even see the property before closing.”
“Buyers are still all-cash, Mr. Zalewski said, but are paying an increasingly higher price per square foot. Dwindling inventory is one thing forcing them to pay more than they may have thought they would,” he said. “Also, there’s anxious money out there that needs to be spent.”
“Across the tricounty area, Mr. Zalewski said, more than 20,000 pending sales were recorded in February 2010, a height that has not been approached since November 2008.”
“The condo inventory is slowly being depleted,” he said. “If it’s not at the bottom, it’s pretty close.”
Good news on the Publix on Biscayne near Pace Park. Any word on the Bayview Market or does Publix kill it?
Infinity,
i’ll take you up on your offer for building info. Know anything about either Solaris or Brickell on the River North? Two buildings I have been considering but lack internal details. Any info would help.
This is fantastic news. One more publix for downtown. Even though it is in Pace Park area, it is good for Park West residents also. 17th street is not far from TMP, Marquis.
Publix to build block-square Omni-area store
By Yudislaidy Fernandez
Publix is coming to the Omni neighborhood.
The multi-billion-dollar company filed design plans with the City of Miami this month to build a 48,000-square-foot supermarket at 1776 Biscayne Blvd., which would be the first major grocery store for this booming neighborhood, home to a growing number of condo residents.
The project, costing $7.5 million to build, is to encompass a 48,200-square-foot Publix supermarket, 251-space garage and two adjacent retail spaces, 3,250 and 2,025 square feet respectively, design plans show.
The one-square-block supermarket is to face Biscayne Boulevard, bordered by Northeast 17th Terrace, Northeast 18th Street and Northeast Second Court, according to filed plans.
The closest Publix serving this neighborhood now is at 4870 Biscayne Blvd.
Even through the economic downturn, the Publix brand has remained strong, with the company recording $6.1 billion in sales in the fourth quarter of last year, up 1% from 2008. The chain has 1,012 locations nationwide, including 727 in Florida, more than two-thirds of all Publix stores.
The fast-growing chain has also assumed an anchor tenant role in several new shopping centers in Miami-Dade, including the recently-opened Fifth & Alton in Miami Beach.
Boris Kozolchyk, senior vice president of retail services at Grubb & Ellis, describes Publix as a “sophisticated and savvy retailer that knows its market,” which means it has established that there’s a market to be served at the new location.
The Omni area is flourishing with new condominiums, entertainment venues like the performing arts center and new restaurants.
Mr. Kozolchyk pointed to Publix’s expansion in the bustling Brickell area, where today it operates three supermarkets within blocks of one another.
Publix’s entrance into the Omni area could open doors for other retailers.
“Other tenants are looking for the ability to benefit from traffic generated by an anchor tenant like Publix,” Mr. Kozolchyk said.
Plus, the big-box retailer could attract other service-oriented businesses, “which is what the area needs to establish itself as a leading neighborhood,” he added. “Publix is a great first step in that direction.”
Publix did not return calls.
Miami Commissioner Marc Sarnoff, whose district includes the site, sees expansion of Publix into Omni as a big investment in a thriving community.
“Publix will be a great amenity for the new residents filling up these condo towers,” he said.
He also foresees the supermarket over time drawing such other establishments as bakeries, drugstores and mom-and-pops.
Once Publix goes through permitting and construction begins, Mr. Sarnoff estimates it could open in 18 months.
He says he was approached by Publix about three months ago with a request for $1.7 million in Omni Community Redevelopment Agency funding to build the store but he wouldn’t support funding the project at a time the city faces a serious budget crisis.
“I was criticized for taking the risk of a Publix not coming,” he said. “But I didn’t think a multi-billion-dollar company needed $1.7 million.”
Looks like publix will beat bayview market to come to the town quicker. Bayview market needs to look for another co anchor along with Lowes. It was widely believed that Publix would co anchor bayview market along with Lowes.
Actually publix made a very smart move by going it alone. The lot 1750 biscaynme blvd is a much nicer and desirable location than ne 2nd ave, the bayview markets original location.
Guys,
Of the three buildings in (Icon, Mint and Infinity), Infinity will sell out first for the following reasons
—-> It has 370 units left to sell, Icon has 1600 left, and Mint has 600 units and has not even started selling yet.
—-> Only Infinity is Fannie mae approved which will help in folks like me to obtain financing.
—-> Infiniity is selling at around $200 per foot for new (non – pre-sales) buyers, so nearly all the remaining units in Infinity will sell for 350K or less and most of them will be less then 250K, Icon and Mint will be selling for more per sf and there will cost more. Since the lower priced condos are selling faster and Infinity has more of them then Mint and Icon, then Infinity will sell out first.
“In the under $300,000 category, he said, very little inventory remains. We’ve had buyers from Tokyo and Israel who don’t even see the property before closing.”
gables,
you said,
Infinity,
i’ll take you up on your offer for building info. Know anything about either Solaris or Brickell on the River North? Two buildings I have been considering but lack internal details. Any info would help.
SOLARIS
—> it’s a smaller building, only 141 units and in a good location, however I little far to walk to supermarket and mary brickell village
—> it’s blocked by buildings to it’s north and south, however it was direct views to the east to teh bay. But the empty lot directly east of them is prime since it’s right on the bay and there will be a new building built on that prime lot for sure, once the market gets better. So the building is will have much of a view
—-> they are selling alot of them under $200 per sqaure foot on short sales, and they are many shot sales and repo I am sure in the building since it was orig sold at the top of the market in 2006
—-> maint fee is very high – 600 -700 for a small 1 bed 1bath due to the short sales and the small unit of units in the building
—-> very nice kictens and baths
—-> not a good place if you want a view and low maint fees
—-> I think an empty new buiilding like Infiity will have a much stronger HOA then this building will have down the road
Brickell on the River North:
—> in Brickell on Miami River, I don’t the miami river area that much, too close to downtown for me
—> Was not fammie approved when I brought mine – it may be now due to teh special exceptions that fammie mae is doing now
—-> A little far to walk to supermarkets and Mary Brickell
—-> better views to the east
—-> Looks like the developer sold most of it, not many units left from the developer for sale
—-> will be ALOT of short sales and repos in the future since many folks bought their units in 2006 when prices were at top of market.
—-> I would think it’s HOA is in the same condition as the Sorias is, however their HOA maint fees are less due to the fact their are more then twice the number of units in Brickell on the River North compared to Sorias
WHICH Building would I buy a condo in as an end user? Neither cause I don’t like all the short sales and the future short sales in the buildings and how their HOA fees will be effected, however if I had to buy a condo in one of them, then I would buy in Brickell on the River North since it will have better views then Sorias wil have in the future
“Even if they don’t, I believe the law will soon be changing to allow what we’re talking about now. Check out Florida H.B. 329, which proposes an amendment to Fla. Stat. 718.106. The amendment would include the right to restrict access to common areas, such as the pool, etc., as well as various other sanctions, on a owner who is 90+ days delinquent on dues.” – – – DJ
Great find. But I am concerned by the language and scope of the law concerning the ability of associations to go after tenants when owners are not paying their association fees, and it appears lawmakers are too given that they have suspended debate.
As I have said in the past, I have no sympathy for deadbeat owners and welcome all means of legal redress permitting battered/financially strapped associations to recoup and recover the revenue they are due. Despite their obvious problems and defects, the value of the newly built condos must be protected.
At the same time, I am hesitant to trample the legal rights of others, particularly innocent third parties such as tenants, be they guaranteed by statute or created by contract. If one looks at the express language of FLA.Stat.718.106(3), the owner is entitled to exclusive possession of his or her unit and to “…use the common elements in accordance with the purposes for which they are intended, but no use may hinder or encroach upon the lawful rights of other unit owners.”
Like it or not, this is the problem because a tenant, by operation of law, steps into the shoes of the owner, deadbeat or not, and enjoys the exclusive right to use and possession (not title) of the unit rented and enjoys all the benefits of the common elements including the right to access, use and enjoy. Any interference with a tenant’s use or enjoyment is a legally actionable violation of the tenant’s rights. And such a violation only leads, as I said early, to coyote ugly disputes.
Moreover, I have heard from colleagues of mine that several associations (the names will be excluded to protect the foolish) have attempted to get around this by circulating to tenants what I will call a “supplemental contract” purporting to state that if, during the course of the tenant’s rental agreement, the owner becomes delinquent on their association or other fees, the tenant shall remit to the association all rental payments otherwise due to their landlord. Two points here:
1. If you or anyone here encounters such an agreement after execution of their lease, do not sign it. After a lease agreement between an owner and a tenant is executed, these “supplemental agreements” are not legally enforceable because, as the association was not a party to the original lease it has no authority, legal or equitable, to modify the original lease agreement.
2. If an association approaches anyone here under the guise of “you have to sign this and act accordingly” or “this is the new building policy” – – WALK AWAY. As I said above, post execution, such agreements are not enforceable but, more importantly, signing such an agreement and, heaven forbid, complying with such an agreement constitutes a breach of the contract between the owner and the tenant. Again, walk away.
There was an interesting article in the Sun Sentinel on this law as well as a posting on a condo HOA law blog.
Here are the links, for those that are interested:
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2010-02-09/business/fl-delinquents-condocol-0210-20100209_1_delinquent-owners-unit-owner-condo-associations
http://www.floridacondohoalawblog.com/tags/329/
scriv
Veronica,
What building do you live in ?
How far away is the new Publix site from TMP ?
Joe
Agreed. What’s funny about Euroman’s 45,000+ population influx # is that that # represents the ENTIRE TRI-COUNTY AREA, not just Miami. Dade/Broward/Palm Beach Cty has over 5.5M people. A 45,000 increase represents less than 0.9% population increase. Trying to correlate that 45,000 # to the Miami condo market is very misleading….Skewed statistics to prove a point- a favorite tactic of some people on this site.
I posted an earlier comment regarding this but of course it was “awaiting moderation” forever even though it was not offensive. Lucas you need to change these settings. Why not let comments post immediately and then conduct a review after the fact whereby comments could then be removed.
owneratinfinity, gixxer,
Regarding the article I posted, I realize I didn’t include any commentary, which I hate doing, but I was busy at work and didn’t have the time to include my thoughts.
I agree, while the title of the article may seem negative, it’s actually quite positive for not just brickell, but overall miami-dade. The fact that half of the unsold condos in all of miami-dade are concerntrated in brickell, basically confined to three buildings, Icon, Mynt and Ivy, means the other buildings in Brickell are probably doing just fine. Moreover, if the other half of unsold units are spread out across the vast area that is Miami-Dade, that leads me to believe for the most part, that condo sales throughout the county are doing good as well. The only conclusions I can reach is that obviously some buildings are performing well to great, while others are performing poorly. For those in latter category, they’ll need to do something different if they want to succeed. Aside from being a monster, Icon actually has potential, it’s just way over-priced. Mynt and Ivy are cheap buildings in bad locations, so I think those two projects don’t really stand a chance.
Overall, the predictions of doom and gloom don’t seem to be panning out, and the new condos are being absorbed faster than I think anyone anticipated. In my building alone, I’ve seen sales pick up significantly, with prices rising considerably over what I paid a little over 6 months ago. The issues of shaddow inventory with the foreclosures I see as sort of a non-issue. It may put slight downward pressure on prices, but with the increased sales activity over the past 6 months, the effective market rate has been established, and when banks do unload these properties, they will be looking to let them go at similar prices.
Obviously there are buyers out there, many of the them cash like I was, but owneratinfinity shows that financing is also available to qualified individuals. I think people that are in the market as end users or investors are starting to see the current going rates as being solid deals, so after all this time of waiting, they’re ready to jump in.
My only concern with brickell, and no offense owneratinfinity, is when these 3,XXX condos are sold, how is that going to affect the already bad traffic problem in that area. Since the city planners here have the foresight of a goldfish, I don’t see how the infrastructure in that area can be upgraded to support so many new residents. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
scriv,
An association would likely be foolish to try and get a tenant to sign such an addendum during an already established tenancy, but my building requires such an addendum be added to any lease agreement between a unit owner and prospective tenant. This way, we don’t have the problem that the guy who asked the initial question has.
I guess my advice to “condo dues help” would be immediately initiate a similar practice as is in place in my building. Amend the condo docs to add a provision whereby any new lease agreement would need to be approved by the board and contain an addendum so the board could be paid dues directly by the tenant if the owner going into default. That might not help with mercedes driving deadbead and his louis vuitton clad wife, but at least your future interest will be protected. As for the deadbeat and his fashionable wife, initiate foreclusre proceedings. It won’t accomplish much in the short term, but at least it will get the ball rolling.
hey Euroman and Gixxer- See article re construction costs that contradicts your prior assertions. Nowhere does it remotely suggest that assets are available to purchase at prices less than the cost of construction.
I’m sorry, but I’ll take the word of local GC’s and developers over 2 unsubstantiated claims by a stat-loving kid in DC who doesn’t live here and from a guy who mysteriously calls himself Euroman.
http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/100325/story4.shtml
Posted on Miami Herald today.
If you are in the game, you know this romantic idea that he market is recovering is just bs. Truth is just being covered up by measures which are delayed the worst to come.
get a grip with reality. It is definetely not the time to buy.
Wait until all these stimulus packages come to an end and you will see the ugly truth come out!
MORTGAGES
Foreclosure rescue plan may not help
BY DAWN KOPECKI
Bloomberg News
The Obama administration’s main foreclosure-prevention program risks helping few borrowers and may do more harm than good by “merely spreading out the foreclosure crisis” over several years, federal investigators said.
“A year into the program, although more than a million trial modifications have been initiated, the number of permanent modifications thus far, 168,708, has been, even according to Treasury, disappointing,”’ according to a report by a government watchdog obtained by Bloomberg News.
“The program will not be a long-term success if large amounts of borrowers simply re-default and end up facing foreclosure anyway.”
While Treasury officials still publicly proclaim the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, will help 3 million to 4 million borrowers, internally they project that about half that number will receive permanent alterations to their loan terms, the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program wrote in the report. The findings are scheduled to be released at a March 25 hearing before the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
HAMP was designed last year to curb record foreclosures after housing markets began to collapse in 2007. About 2.82 million U.S. homeowners lost their properties to foreclosure in 2009 and 4.5 million filings are expected in 2010, according to RealtyTrac, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data.
The report echoes criticisms in a March 16 letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner from Republican U.S. Reps. Darrell Issa of California and Jim Jordan of Ohio. They said the administration was “glossing over disappointing results” by counting temporary changes toward the goal of permanent relief.
ok
Comment has just reappeared, but still waiting for approval. Must be a glitch in the system.
Thanks.
Drew,
Prior to a few weeks ago, comments had always posted immediately. However, I had to change the settings because a few were leaving childish and/or nonsensical comments. Unfortunately, a few of you ruined it for the rest.
Unbelievable story about Miami Beach Police corruption:
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/2010-03-25/news/miami-beach-cops-are-paid-up-to-225k-and-face-lawsuits-galore/
Lucas, sorry to hear about your lawsuit and EWM shakeout.
Elvis,
That happened about 2 years ago. For some reason, the blogosphere is talking about it again like it happened last week.
DL,
You said,
“My only concern with brickell, and no offense owneratinfinity, is when these 3,XXX condos are sold, how is that going to affect the already bad traffic problem in that area. Since the city planners here have the foresight of a goldfish, I don’t see how the infrastructure in that area can be upgraded to support so many new residents. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.”
—-> I do agree with you about the traffic will get worst once the 3500 condos in Brickell get sold and folks move into them’
—-> However even when all them are sold they will not always to filled with someone. cause they will be between renters or the 2nd home condos that are only be used during the winter
—–> Plus I know I will have less of a problem with traffice in where I live in infinity cause where infinity is location is at the west end of the new condo buildings at s miami and 13 th street,
—-> I drive on 13th st west to 2nd ave north then go west on 7th st to get to the 95 highway . it takes only 5 mins when I get grreen lights and 7-10 with red lights.
—-> I don’t have to drive on s miami or brickell ave like ICON and alot of other large condo building that are on the bay or on brickell ave.
—-> when ICON sells there 1600 unit, that area around n 4th st and brickell ave will be a major mess with traffic – the rush hour traffic is really bad in front of icon now due to the bidge over miami river and due to all the folks leaving downtown at 5pm – this traffic issue is another reason I did not want to buy/live in icon
—-> So since my building is last big condo building built west from the bay in brickell it will always be fastest to get to and fastest to leave, so I think the bad traffic will not effect me as much
—-> I agree with the Ivy and Mint building locations that they are a bad location, to me they are too close to the 95 and way to close to the bad and uly areas in downtowm – as you go south into Brickell like from 7 st on the area gets better then where these two buildings are located. I think due to their bad location these 2 builings and maybe wind too, will remain large renter buildings longer then infinity, 1060,axis buildings will be once the market picks up (someday) and prices start to riase,
Lucas, I disagree with drew. I for one appreciate that you are sorting out bad comments before they appear. Taking them out after the fact is a bad idea. People like me would have already read them and it leaves a bad taste in the mouth. Regarding your comment “Unfortunately, a few of you ruined it for the rest”, I do not agree. It actually made this blog better.
visionary, TMP is on the 11/12th street . If you walk 5 blocks up north on the biscayne to 17th st, it is publix. But I will be driving and not walking. you guys living around pace park hit a goldmine. you can walk one block from quantum, 1800 club, opera as it is just one block west of your buildings. in fact publix not hitching on the bayview market is god sent for all of you living around pace park as bayview market would have been 3 or 4 blocks to the west of your buildings and you would have needed a car to get there.
Paramount condo faces $216M foreclosure
South Florida Business Journal – by Brian Bandell
The Paramount on the Bay Condominium could be seized by its lender in a $216 million foreclosure that would rank as one of the most massive in South Florida.
The 346-unit, 47-story tower at 2066 N. Bayshore Drive in Miami is nearly completed. With the developer planning to turn the project over to the lender by not opposing the lawsuit, Paramount’s future will rest in the hands of New York-based iStar Financial (NYSE: SFI).
The lender’s affiliate, iStar Tara, filed a foreclosure lawsuit on March 19 against Paramount developer Royal Palm Miami Holding and Daniel Kodsi, the principal and CEO of Boca Raton-based RPC Holdings, according to Miami-Dade County Circuit Court records.
“We are working in an effort t turn it over to them,” Kodsi said. “Our goal is to protect the integrity of the building and work with our lender.”
Kodsi’s company is in the process of giving back several other development properties in Miami amid foreclosure complaints.
Miami attorney Jose Casal, who represents iStar Tara in the lawsuit, didn’t immediately return a call seeking comment.
RPC broke ground on Paramount in April 2006. Later that year, it secured a $216 million mortgage from co-lenders Corus Bank and iStar plus a $30 million mezzanine loan from Babcock & Brown. Corus Bank failed last year and its share of the loan was assigned to a joint venture between the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Starwood Capital. On March 3, the joint venture assigned the full interest of the loan to iStar.
The condo site had the house used in the move “Something About Mary.” The house was damaged in a 2008 crane collapse that killed two and insured five Paramount construction workers. The incident caused major construction delays.
Condo Vultures LLC principal Peter Zalewski said Paramount has an attractive design and quality construction. However, its units are too big to price competitively and it’s in a Biscayne Boulevard submarket that isn’t as desirable as Brickell Avenue or downtown Miami, he said. Many of the units were pre-sold for more than $1 million and exceed 2,000 square feet.
“It’s a nice product and decent location but the wrong time,” Zalewski said. “The units are way to large for this market, especially at a time when people are trying to contract.”
Zalewski said the lender should try converting Paramount into high-end rental project the real estate market improves. But it must also front money to finish construction.
“Condo Vultures LLC principal Peter Zalewski said Paramount has an attractive design and quality construction. However, its units are too big to price competitively and it’s in a Biscayne Boulevard submarket that isn’t as desirable as Brickell Avenue or downtown Miami, he said. Many of the units were pre-sold for more than $1 million and exceed 2,000 square feet”
—> this is what I said before, to me Paramount is too upscale for the area it is located in. By far it’s nicest building in midtown(from the 395 to 195). I am suprised that anyone would pay that much money during pre-contruction to buy in that area, reguardless of how upscale the building is.
More analysis of the current situation. Note, this is the value of the home to catch up only with mortgage amounts outstanding (not the peak bubble home price). In other words, the mortgage amount gets paid down over the years as the home value rises to intersect. I guess in 30 years homes won’t be underwater since the mortgage would be paid off! LOL But of course, in real dollar terms will the homes might just need to be paid off!
“Get ready for at least 5 more years of underwater mortgages
> Posted by Paul Owers on March 25, 2010 04:20 PM
Wondering how long it’ll be before your home’s value exceeds what you owe?
The typical “underwater” borrower in the U.S. is looking at late 2015 or early 2016 before the home’s value catches up to the mortgage debt, according to a report Thursday from First American CoreLogic, a California research firm. In certain markets, it will take another five to 10 years, CoreLogic says.
Metro Atlanta and Dallas won’t get right until 2016. The Cape Coral-Fort Myers area will need until 2020. And Detroit may still be hurting after 2020.
A spokesman for CoreLogic said he didn’t yet have data for the South Florida market. But this region’s recovery probably will be later rather than sooner.
In its report, CoreLogic said house-price appreciation eventually will offset so-called negative equity. But the paying down of loan balances will “in most cases be a more significant remedy.”
What do you think?”
“Prior to a few weeks ago, comments had always posted immediately. However, I had to change the settings because a few were leaving childish and/or nonsensical comments. Unfortunately, a few of you ruined it for the rest.” Lucas
Thanks for the explanation and your actions are reasonable (although I would direct your attention, respectfully of course, to 47 U.S.C. §230 – – just trying to be helpful)
Best regards.
scriv
MORE GREAT NEWS FROM OUR SUNNY FLORIDA..TALK ABOUT RECOVERY…
From CNN Money
FHA’s Florida fiasco
Nearly 18% of all FHA loans in Miami are delinquent, making it one of the most troubled locales in the nation.By Tami Luhby, senior writer
March 26, 2010: 4:41 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — What the hell happened to the FHA’s loans in Florida?
The state dominates the list of troubled metro areas for Federal Housing Administration-insured mortgages. In fact, 16 of the top 25 locales with the highest default rates are in Florida, as of December, with tiny Punta Gorda on the Gulf Coast leading at 22.7%.
The poor performance of Florida’s FHA loans has helped drag the agency down to its lowest point in decades, raising concerns that taxpayers will have to bail it out. The agency is in the midst of overhauling its operations to shore up reserves, which have fallen well below the level required by Congress.
Much of the blame lies in Florida’s famous condo market, which collapsed during the housing bust. The controversial practice of seller-assisted downpayments is also contributing, as is the scarcity of jobs and the severe decline in home values.
Florida homebuyers have long gravitated to FHA loans, which are aimed at first-time and low- to moderate-income purchasers. The state’s relatively cheap home prices fueled the market for these government-backed mortgages.
“The FHA got sucked into Florida because they loan in the price range where a lot of the vulnerability was,” said Wayne Archer, executive director of the Kelley A. Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Florida.
Condo crash
FHA loans have been particularly popular among Florida’s condo buyers. The agency has backed more of these mortgages in the Sunshine State than anywhere else in the country, insuring more than 11,000 loans valued at nearly $1.7 billion over the past five years.
“Florida is ground zero for condos and for losses for condos,” said Guy Cecela, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication. “South Florida condos are the worst of the worst.”
Until the recent downturn, condos generally performed better than the housing market as a whole, agency officials said. Now, however, 28% of the FHA condo loans in Florida are seriously delinquent. In Broward County alone, four in 10 condo owners are behind in their payments.
One reason was the condo building boom earlier in the past decade. Speculators joined homeowners in snapping up luxury apartments in new developments, driving prices sky-high. But when the market collapsed, these investors were among the first to bail out, dragging the entire development down with them.
“We definitely see, from an FHA perspective, more entire or large portions of condos going into foreclosure than we do in other states,” said Vicki Bott, a deputy assistant secretary at the agency.
Recipe for disaster
Another category of loans — where the seller gives the buyer money for the downpayment — has also blown up in the Sunshine State. Some 37% of these types of mortgages in Florida are delinquent, compared to 21% nationally.
One reason why this loan segment has been hit so hard is because Florida’s prices rose so quickly and then experienced steep declines, particularly along the coasts, Bott said.
Florida ranks third in the nation, behind Hawaii and California, for home price appreciation between 2000 and September 2006, gaining 154.9% before hitting its peak, according to First American CoreLogic. Since then, it has fallen 45.7%, the third-worst performance in the nation, behind Nevada and Arizona.
Many homes involved in seller-assisted downpayments had their values inflated, making their owners even more likely to default once the price collapsed, experts said.
The state’s weak economy is also contributing to FHA’s Florida quagmire. At 11.9%, Florida has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, and most of the big default cities, including Ocala, Fort Meyers, Sarasota and Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, have even higher levels of joblessness.
Many borrowers with FHA-backed loans don’t have the savings or resources to weather the Great Recession, said Elizabeth Boyle, managing attorney at St. Petersburg-based Gulf Coast Legal Services, which has seen more FHA borrowers walk through its doors in recent years.
“The FHA loan failures we’re seeing today are loans that failed because the real estate bubble burst,” said Boyle, noting that the Florida economy is heavily dependent on construction. Borrowers “lost their jobs and are facing an extended period of unemployment.”
Darryl Gary is one of those unemployed delinquent borrowers. After losing his trucking job in October 2008, Gary struggled to keep up with the $1,400 monthly payment on his Sarasota home. Though he soon landed a post as a termite technician, it paid him $5.50 less an hour and only lasted for a year.
Though his wife continues to work, the couple ran through their savings and then fell behind on their mortgage in the middle of 2009. He’s trying to negotiate a loan modification with his servicer to help him get back on his financial feet, but he’s finding that the job market is pretty weak right now.
“If I hadn’t lost my job, none of this would be happening,” Gary said. “I was more than able to afford the mortgage. Once you fall behind, if you are making less than you were before, it makes it hard to catch up.”
FHA fixes
FHA’s skyrocketing default rates nationwide have forced the agency to change its guidelines. It has tightened its underwriting standards and, in January, unveiled a plan to increase premiums. Also, it will require borrowers to have a credit score of at least 580 to qualify for the agency’s 3.5% downpayment program; those with lower scores will pay at least 10%.
The agency has also taken steps to address the problems that are particularly plaguing the Florida market. It prohibited seller-assisted downpayments in 2008, after seeing they are three times more likely to go into default.
Last year, the FHA overhauled the rules for condos, adding special restrictions for Florida transactions.
Nationwide, at least half of a condo project’s units now must be sold before the agency will back a loan, and no more than 30% of the units can have FHA-insured mortgages. There were no such limitations in the past. Also, the entire project must obtain FHA approval before it will insure a unit. Before, spot approvals were allowed.
And in Florida, the agency is the only one allowed to bless a project. Elsewhere, lenders can do so in certain circumstances.
“We want to know before we approve a condo project that it’s a stable project that we’d want to lend in today,” Bott said.
Even with these new measures, however, the agency’s default rates — both in Florida and nationwide — are likely to remain high for the next year or so, FHA officials and experts say. And the agency doesn’t have much hope of recovering its losses in Florida because of the state’s decimated property values.
“There’s a likelihood you’ll see serious losses from defaults there,” Cecela said. To top of page
owneratinfinity, thanks for the comments on S0laris and Brickell on the River North. I considered Solaris an option if the price is low enough. It seems an average building with central location, but as you said, because of the potential for large new developments surrounding it, you should not pay for any premium views. but it could be a nice place for a local to live affordably. I live Brickell on the River due to the river views-and it seemed like the units were slightly more polished. But the prices have not dropped to the level i am looking for. Both buildings concern me over HOA, was hoping to get an insiders account of this from the blog. Anybody?
Drew,
Once again you fail to comprehend the actual point. I’m arguing that some home builders SHOULD be building homes but because EXISTING HOMES are cheaper right now they are holding off and waiting. How does an article that says now is a good time to build refute that???? The article only talks about current cost relative to past cost. If now was such a great time to build then builders would be building. But builders don’t care about the long term sustainable growth of the market (or they wouldn’t have over built), they care about immediate profits. And if they build now they won’t make money.
“If a home isn’t sold before it’s finished, an average sale takes 14.4 months to complete, the government reported. That’s also a new record.”
We’re talking about builders building and selling houses. If houses in a given area sold for about $200k and a home builder could build a similar house in the same area and sell it for $150k and make a profit then they would. Home builders do NOT care about existing inventory. They would build until we had 20 million empty houses if people kept purchasing the new ones. But the problem right now is they cant. If they build a house right now the existing house will be cheaper. So their house will sit empty, and every month is sits empty they lose money. Since you think my claims are unsubstantiated here:
http://www.nahb.com/reference_list.aspx?sectionID=132
It’s a link to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS. Who better to ask about building homes then them. Go down to the fourth link and click on: New and Existing Single Family Home Prices, US. Here is the information for people too lazy to look (which I’m sure Joe will say is false).
This information is for Feb 2010:
Median New Home Sales Price: $220k (up 5.2%)
Median Ext Homes Sales Price: $164k (down 2.1%)
From a recent article on MarketWatch.com:
“New-home sales slipped 2.2% to an annual pace of 308,000, seasonally adjusted, which is the lowest rate since the government began tracking the data in 1963, according to the Commerce Department. The rate of sales is down 13% compared to February 2009.”
Obviously this cant last forever. No one is saying they are going to start to build luxury condos because of this. But as the overall market supply begins to tighten we’ll have no choice but increase housing starts. That in return will send millions of people back to work building, which will also help the market. So in a year or so you will have a slightly better economy, lower inventory, the need for more housing, therefore more housing starts, therefore even less unemployment, which leads to a better economy, which leads to more need for housing, etc. We’ve seen this after almost every recession. Housing starts always make a quick turn and start heading in the opposite direction.
Carlos,
How does that article show the market is NOT recovering. It details how the FHA in Florida got into trouble, and how now implemented changes going forward. Nothing in that article talks about what is happening NOW and going FORWARD. It just chronicles the PAST.
After the entire long story it ends on this note:
“There’s a likelihood you’ll see serious losses from defaults there,” Cecela said.
I think everyone already knows and has built future defaults into the picture.
Again most people seem to focus on the past which is why they usually get left behind. During the condo boom all signs were indicated prices would have to head down. But people kept reading articles say were up 50% over last year. So now were in the opposite position and articles are going to keep coming out detailing how were down. This is how our news works. We wait until a year after the recession ended to say it ended a year ago.
Here are the housing starts over the last recessions.
1961
Housing starts before 1.4 million
Housing starts during 1.2 million
Housing starts after 1.7 million
1971
Housing starts before 1.7 million
Housing starts during 1.3 million
Housing starts after 2.4 million
1975
Housing starts before 2.4 million
Housing starts during 1 million
Housing starts after 2.1 million
1980
Housing starts before 1.5 million
Housing starts during 1 million
Housing starts after 1.5 million
1983
Housing starts before 1.5 million
Housing starts during .8 million
Housing starts after 1.8 million
1991
Housing starts before 1.5 million
Housing starts during .8 million
Housing starts after 1.3 million
2001
Housing starts before 1.6 million
Housing starts during 1.5 million
Housing starts after 1.7 million
This recession 2009
Housing starts were over 2 million in 2006. They dropped sharply to 1.5 million before the recession started in 2007. Housing starts are now at a low of about 500k.
Another note, in every recession housing starts fell sharply before the recession began and increased sharply after the recession ended. My guess would be that laying off millions of construction workers when housing starts dramatically decrease is a major factor that leads to the recession and hiring millions of workers as housing starts dramatically increase after a recession is a major factor in the recovery.
Here is a graph that shows historical housing starts:
http://www.forecast-chart.com/graph-housing-starts.html
Every sharp “V-shaped” dip in that graph is a recession except for the one in the mid 60’s.
Unless there is some vast paradigm shift where people are going to continue living with family members even when the economy gets better these numbers have no where to go but up. Building only 500k new houses a year just isn’t sustainable for a country that is growing by about 3 million people per year.
gixxer 1000, your #225 is brilliant. thanks for such insightful analysis.
on another note, publix coming up on the biscayne between 17th and 18 st will have an electrifying effect on the entire area. From Epic to midtown 2&4, people will use this publix. I am very sure that by the time publix will be up and running in 2012, every empty plot of land (there are many of them in that location) will be dusting off the blue prints or breaking ground. What else can a developer dream of, having a publix within 2 blocks of his building will be the biggest selling point of all. One project that comes to mind is Portico and the Melo developers project next to Opera. If they start in 2012, they willl come on line by 2015 or 2016, just in time to ride the next demand in housing assuming gixxers analysis holds true that there will be pent up demand but almost zero construction from now until another 5-6 years.
This was a CREDIT bubble bust people so not the same as a cyclical recession. The fact that new home sales are the worst ever compared to population ratio just shows you how over built and serious the housing crisis is…and yes, this is also helpful to absord supply and to shift it into end users hands. A “U” shaped recovery is more like the Verizon symbol. Anyone that thinks this is just a typical but severe recession fails to understand that credit will not be returning to the previous levels which is precisely why companies are hoarding cash and the Fed is flooding the market with liquidity… Homes are mostly bought with credit and the lending will simply not return to the housing bubble standards. Don’t believe the hype…or the shills.
Carlos:
Wow! Great find!
It should be interesting to see what happens to the value of the condo units. I have not heard who the new operator will be – – should be interesting.
I noticed that, over the past few years, the Four Seasons sold several of its “glitz and glamor” properties: Miami, Great Exuma, etc.
scriv
More great news from the fantastic real estate market nowadays
Four Seasons hotel in Miami sold for $30M
BY DOUGLAS HANKS
[email protected]
Downtown Miami’s Four Seasons hotel has sold for $30 million, according to a new report.
Condo Vultures, a brokerage that focuses on distressed sales, reports that a New York group bought the hotel component of the 70-story high-rise on Brickell Avenue, which also includes condominiums, office space and a spa. The deal apparently was for the hotel portion alone.
The 221-unit hotel portion was valued at $85 million in tax records, Condo Vultures said.
ade Ocean buyers sue developer of Miami Beach condo
By ELAINE WALKER
[email protected]
The buyers of seven condominiums at Jade Ocean in Miami Beach are suing developer Fortune Ocean for breach of contract and theft.
The suit filed earlier this month in Miami-Dade Circuit Court focuses on the developer’s refusal to refund a portion of the buyers’ deposits after they canceled the purchase contract in May 2009.
The buyers are seeking a return of their “excess deposit,” which is anything above the 15 percent the developer is entitled to keep. The buyers involved in the suit put 20 percent down.
The suit accuses the developer of engaging in a practice that “strong-arms the theft of a portion of the escrow deposit,” and “forces preconstruction contract holders to file lawsuits to secure the return of monies that unconditionally belong to them.”
mishka:
you said:
What else can a developer dream of, having a publix within 2 blocks of his building will be the biggest selling point of all.
—> I 100% agree, as an end user having a publix directly behind my building was a one of the big reasons for me to pick the infinity building
—> Why live in a city when you still have to drive your car to the supermarket. I think it’s great that I can walk or ride my bike everywhere I go. – the only time I drive my car is go to work.
—-> I take the Metrorail train which is very near the rear of my building to the South Miami Movie house or I take the Metromover which is again very near my building from brickell to downtown and midtown.
—-> Met1/Met2 developer in downtown across the street from the miami river is still going to build the new movie house next to Met1 condo building. I talked to construction office a few months ago and that is what they told me, if it happens that would be great, having a movie house that close to Brickell is the last major thing it needs to be a walkable city – Once it’s opens I can walk or bike there or take the metromover. So I hope they built it.
OK, mishka. Calm down. Its a just a grocery store, not the Taj Mahal. And don’t hold your breath waiting for the next condo boom in 5 yrs.
Gixxer, since you’ve seem to established a cult-like following on this blog. you should start including a forward-looking statement disclosure to protect you from liability should any of your MCI disciples make real estate investment decisions based on your word.
wow, a cine multiplex on a prime downtown land! or will be part of a larger commercial building? this is the first time i am hearing about it. keep us posted of any more news on this subject please.
with respect to paramount…i’m curious how much the starwood venture got bought out at. they already came in at a discount.
mishka,
You said,
wow, a cine multiplex on a prime downtown land! or will be part of a larger commercial building? this is the first time i am hearing about it. keep us posted of any more news on this subject please.
—-> It’s part of the met1, met2 and met3 buildings (I think met3 will be a condo building if and when they build it) Met2 is office building that is almost completed
—-> when they complete met2 they told they will start building MET square which will include a movie house and shopping etc.
—-> I hope they build it, however I think that area where they will build it, is too busy already with too much traffic for a movie house, they instead should build the movie house on 8th and s miami ave near mary brickell on those empty lots instead of more condo buildings.
—->This link explains what they plan to do, however we will see if they will or not. http://www.metropolitanmiami.com/home.html
Gixxer 1000,
Thanks again for all your research, its great that you do so much for the rest of us….
What about the following—-
Between what your gutt is telling and your research what to think will happen to all the condo units/buildings in the following three miami areas assuming that the encomey get better and there is not a really large condo building build out again in the next “5 years” AND the next “15 years”.
1) North Brickell on or near the bay (from river south to 15th street)
2) Downtown on or near the bay (from river north to 395 highway)
3) Midtown/park pace/edgewater near the bay (395 highway north to 195 highway) with the new publix in midtown
drew, wrong on that. If they are building a Taj mahal, I would not give 2 hoots. a taj mahal 2 blocks away will do zilch nothing for me. A publix would. I never need to stock up. eat fresh everyday. do not have to jump into a car everytime to buy food, drink, a bottle of wine or toilet paper. If hungry and dont want to cook, i do not have to load up on junk food but instead get some freshly made wholesome food from the deli/salad bar in pyblix. if I have a macy’s or nordstorm or homedepot 2 blocks from where i live, it will absolutely do nothing to change or affect my life. but a top notch food supermarket like publix would.
I am not saying there will be a another condo boom in 5 years. but gixxer brought up some very interesting and valid arguments that cannot be dismissed lightly. The exact same subject was being discussed on bloomberg channel this afternoon. the expert was extremely bullish on homebuilding companies stocks. he said they are a great buy as sky will be the limit for these companies in the coming months/years.
Gixxer 1000 — Why do you keep assuming that this current “Great Recession” is like most prior recessions, or that the recovery will even remotely look like prior recoveries?
Have you seen the long-term unemployment numbers? Have you seen the estimates of the number of well-paying U.S. jobs that have been lost and will *not* come back during the recovery? Are you aware that roughly 45-50% of the people in the U.S. now pay no state and/or federal income taxes, which basically means that for every tax *payer,* there’s a tax *receiver*? Are you aware that the U.S. national debt is projected to reach an astonishing 90% of GDP — 90% !! — within a decade? Are you aware that Social Security is under water *this year,* six whole years ahead of schedule?
For someone who loves statistics so much, I can’t believe you keep coming here and claiming that housing starts are below where they should be right now. I don’t remember there being millions and millions of empty, unsold condos and houses during the early-’90s recession. Housing aside, the U.S. economy is a mess, and the metrics point to it remaining a mess for a long time.
Regarding the MET 1-2-3 projects and also Epic Hotel/Condo – rumor has it that the land beneath most of that area is filled with the remains of numerous Tequesta Indians who inhabited that area for approx. 1000 years and was used as burial grounds. The old Royal Palm Hotel built in I think 1896 was in this area and the project manager later told stories that when digging the foundation that mounds of bones were found there and re-buried close by. ” 50 to 60 sleletons were removed and then reburied in the area to make way for the Royal Palm Hotel”. Gives a whole new meaning to the term Buyer Beware. Spooky.
Grix,
good find on that chart but I think you are not considering something very important.
“This time it’s different”, I guess you haven’t been reading this blog. Many of our resident experts will tell you that this time it’s different and we are heading for a complete economic meltdown that we will never recover from. I don’t know why you keep posting these silly statistics that prove nothing. We all know Miami is a cesspool and household formation is never going to increase thereby rendering your silly charts and data completely irrelevant. Prices will never get back to what there were prior to the crash. NEVER! I bet you they didn’t have high unemployment during those recessions. Let’s see how many condos are sold when the US $ becomes equivalent to a Zimbabwe $, silly boy.
mishka, did you wet your underwear on the Publix news?
you know, I have 2 publix within walking distance from my home. want to come by to check them out.
Guys, please don’t take me serious. I’m just having fun on a Friday night with a bit of sarcasm and humor. I have never heard someone get so excited about a Publix….well not quite, There was another guy on this blog that got quite excited about anything opening in that area.
Ah, see my point. Just like clockwork, here comes Joe to save the day. “This time it’s different”!
This sh*t is becoming too predictabile!
I asked about my offer i made at Met 1 last month…kind of lost track of the blog because i was sent out of town for work for a month. So the offer was $273k and i asked that they pay the closing costs (the 20% down is a real bummer when buying a Florida condo), storage and an extra parking space. The counter was $389k. Total sf is 1120 sf, mid 20s floor with a bay/river/brickell key view. I did the math on the rule of thumb that your monthly outlays (mortgage, taxes, tax break,insurance, mtnce fee) should not be more than 20% than what you can rent it for. (This rule of thumb doesn’t account for equity growth benefits..which is probably right on for the next decade). Taking out the extras I asked for ($12k for closing, $30k for parking, $5k for storage) I calculated the “fair” price was $255k. Which is interestingly (and obvious) what the recent bulk buyer paid for at the Met for about 20 units (in December 09) for the two bedroom (bay-view) apartments that they purchased. So, i thought my $273k offer was fair. The counter was really high. The building is about half sold (from the research i’ve done).
Anyways, any ideas what the developer is thinking? They did sell a similar apt. this month on the 34th floor for $384k and i have no idea what extras they gave them. They have only sold 2 apts this year, 1 1br and that 2br.
Someone asked if i liked the furnishings. I have looked at most of the apts in Brickell. In my price range and Met 1 was my favorite ( i like view on the bay side).
So i think next week i will make an offer for $310k and if they don’t like it, i’ll rent again for a year.
Joe,
“I admire your willingness to spend a lot of time running numbers, but I don’t have time to get bogged down with all of that nor do I trust much of the data.”
I was going to let this go but wow. You don’t have time to get “bogged down” with actual sales data, wage statistics, occupancy trends, etc. but your opinion is much better than mine simply because you’ve lived in Miami. I’ve never see someone actually be proud of having an uniformed opinion while they bash someone who is at least trying to be informed. And you don’t trust MLS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Miami DDA, etc. Then who provides information that is trustworthy.
“For one thing, a lot of these surveys and “data” on which you keep basing your commentary are self-reported. Just as the average (straight) man lies about how many women he’s bedded, the average So. Fla. resident tends to overstate (if not dramatically overstate) his or her financial position in life.”
Once again you show your ignorance. The salary information I provided was from two sources. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IRS income tax returns. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides surveys to establishments, not individual workers. They survey business about their payrolls. There is nothing to overstate. They don’t even survey people who are self-employed. Someone in the HR departments simply tells how many people are working there, what their positions are and their pay and benefits. And the other information was from filled tax returns. I really doubt people are overstating how much they make on their tax returns. If anything the gross adjusted income is lower as people try to reduce the amount they owe.
“You’ve repeatedly and stridently claimed that 1 in 5 (or more) jobs in Miami are classified as “professional,” yet you keep failing to explain how it’s possible that, out of 500,000 or 1,000,000 “professionals,” a measly 30,000 buyers — a number representing just 3% of the so-called “professionals” in Miami — still haven’t stepped forward and sold out the new-construction market.”
Again you are either over exaggerating what I said or you simply can’t comprehend. I said there were 500,000 professionals in the Miami MSA (includes Broward and Palm Beach). So I never said 1,000,000. I then said if you were looking at just the Miami area then 225,000 would be considered professionals. Here is my quote:
“This was actually for the entire Miami statistical area. It encompasses all three counties and workers working in between counties. If you want just Miami-Dade area the number would be roughly 225,000. But the total number of workers is only 1,027,920.
So roughly a 1/4 a million “professionals” in Miami and another 1/4 of million in the neighboring counties.”
Yes 22% of the jobs are considered professional. When you factor in the number or people unemployed or simply not counted as working that is a low number. There are 2.4 million people in Miami and yet only about 1 million workers. I’d guess there are a lot of people working low paying jobs off the books. But of the 1 million recorded jobs 22% of them are considered professional. But when you extrapolate that out to the total number of people you have 225,000 professionals in a city of 2.4 million. That roughly 10%. So 1 in 10 of the people have a professional jobs, while 1 in 5 of actual workers have a professional job.
I really don’t understand why this bothers you. If you feel there are no professionals and I’m wrong then just let me be wrong. So enough Armageddon will come and in the last days I’ll be sure to tell you that you were right all along. Until then I’ll continue to try and get information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census, IRS, MLS, etc. and you keep “eyeballing” it.
Joe,
“Why do you keep assuming that this current “Great Recession” is like most prior recessions, or that the recovery will even remotely look like prior recoveries?”
Please stop with this “Great Recession” nonsense. A recession is a recession. If it was so severe we would be calling it a depression, but its not.
National unemployment is 9.7%. During the 1983 recession national unemployment reached 10.8%. There are people like you in every recession who always think “this time is different then the last time”.
“Have you seen the long-term unemployment numbers? Have you seen the estimates of the number of well-paying U.S. jobs that have been lost and will *not* come back during the recovery? Are you aware that roughly 45-50% of the people in the U.S. now pay no state and/or federal income taxes, which basically means that for every tax *payer,* there’s a tax *receiver*? Are you aware that the U.S. national debt is projected to reach an astonishing 90% of GDP — 90% !! — within a decade? Are you aware that Social Security is under water *this year,* six whole years ahead of schedule?”
Wow I thought you didn’t have time to get “bogged down” with data. You seem to like statistics just fine when there just random estimates created as talking points for Fox News. I see a lot of words like “estimated” and “projected”. Why not sprinkle some current data in there.
Well here are some real actual numbers. Are you aware that job losses have stopped. In February jobs losses were down to only 36,000, mainly due to construction. If you take out the construction losses (snowstorms kept construction sites closed) then we would have added jobs. I’d venture to guess that when the next jobs report comes out we will have started adding jobs. Sorry you didn’t get the memo but we are in recovery mode.
“Housing aside, the U.S. economy is a mess, and the metrics point to it remaining a mess for a long time.”
What metrics are you using?
GDP..up, consumer prices…up, disposable income…up, consumer confidence…up, home sales…up. We’ve got a long way to go but that is pretty much the nature of recovery. I’d guess that the rest of 2010 will be flat as we stabilize and things will start picking up in 2011. By this time next year housing starts should be at least close to 1 million, up from 550 where there at now.
“For someone who loves statistics so much, I can’t believe you keep coming here and claiming that housing starts are below where they should be right now. I don’t remember there being millions and millions of empty, unsold condos and houses during the early-’90s recession.”
That because you don’t understand whats going on now and probably didn’t know what was going on then. It requires an understanding of things that you don’t have time to get bogged down with.
Bill,
Your 310K offer at met1 is way too high.
Here is the linlkto what they have sold for recently for that size on that floor
http://www.condoreports.com./real-estate-reports/met-1_miami_condo_recent_9012
Show the develoloper these other similar units in their building and offer them $250K to $265 for the the unit. $310 is way too high for 1120 sf.
makes me think, only south beach has 2 publix in walking distance. One at sunset harbor and the other at 5th st. but we are not talking about south beach. It is fully developed and nothing more to add. I think mostly people on this blog are talking about downtown condos. so when a restaurant opens up in 900, it is a major news. no one gives a crap when some fancy restaurant or a club opens in sobe. but it makes news and gets people buzzed when it happens in downtown.
Bill – They are not going to budge very much off of their counter offer @ $389,000. My guess is maybe $375,000. or at best around $360,000 if you are lucky. Prices have bottomed and stabilized. They developer is thinking long term and has deep enough pockets to wait. The bulk sale bought him some time. He has two other parcels nearby MET 3 and MET Square which will add a lot of synergy to that part of town. Met Square with a movie complex, book store and other similar retail will energize this area and in my opinion end up as the epi-center for urban living. Three 4-5 star hotels ( Epic-JW Marriot Marquis and Hotel Intercontinental), Brand new 40 story state of the art office building and then MET 3 is a 76 story condo eventually on that parcel. Train one block away – Bay views and Bayfront Park and the Miami Arena all within a 5-6 block radius. Remember also that your rental for one year is going to be approx $20,000. down the drain. Prices are’t coming down. And no I am not a realtor or Met One owner but have studied the entire Brickell/Downtown/Park West Area exstensively. Good Luck.
Bill, that response from Met1 is why so many of these buildings are empty. Perhaps the developers have the financial backing to ride out the downturn. You only need to sell a couple of those units at inflated prices to keep salary on the sales staff covered for a couple of years. But i tend to reach a similar assessment of 2B units in the Brickell/Downtown area-$250k for a nice building seems economically feasible. But $390k counter offer from the developer? No way i will even consider spending that type of cash in Miami today. Which unfortunately may force me to eventually leave this city.
Bill – Btw – Your rule of thumb @ 20% of what could rent it for – is not valid here. First because the rents in this area are synthetically low because of the overbuilding. That will change in the next year or so. And secondly Miami has never historically abided by that measure. Never. For a variety of reasons.
“I admire your willingness to spend a lot of time running numbers, but I don’t have time to get bogged down with all of that nor do I trust much of the data.”
Ah, spoken like a true conservative!
Why bother with facts when it is so much easier to ignore the facts, besides the conservative media has already decided what this week’s talking points will be.
Facts has no relevance in this conservation!
From MSNBC
Latest housing plan likely to help just a few
White House expands efforts to halt foreclosures after seeing little progress
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36053545/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/
From The Wahington Post
New round of foreclosures threatens housing market
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/11/AR2010031104866.html
Hey Scrivener,
See below the info on the new owners of the Four seasons hotel – published in Miami Herald today
REAL ESTATE
Four Seasons Miami gets new owners
The Four Seasons Miami has new owners. A deal involving the hotel’s embattled New York owners, who also own a Four Seasons in Boston and San Francisco, was announced earlier this month in which a new group, Westbrook Partners, would buy majority stakes in the properties.
Condovultures.com, an arm of a condo brokerage that tracks distressed real estate, reported Friday that a Westbrook affiliate purchased a portion of the Miami Four Seasons for $29.5 million. The deal does not include the office or retail portions of the tower, or unsold condominium units there, Condo Vultures said.
Millennium Partners, which opened the Four Seasons Miami in 2003, was fending off lenders for its San Francisco Four Seasons when it announced the deal with Westbrook. The agreement gave Westbrook majority stakes in the San Francisco, Miami and Boston properties, according to media reports.
I just read Dave’s post (#189) about Publix’s request to build a 48,000 sf supermarket at 1776 Biscayne Blvd. I am stunned! This is probably the most positive news that I’ve seen since our recession started more than two years ago. This is especially good news for the property valuations in the area around this proposed new store location. I am surprised that there are not that many comments about this news and the impact on condo values in that area. Publix, the company, probably has some of the best market research people around. They obviously have reason to believe that this will be profitable for their company. I can only imagine what this going to do to help with property market valuations over the next 12 to 24 months.
Are many of us missing something that Publix knows?
DML,
No one is missing anything. from politicians to ordinary citizens to business owners have been saying this for the past 3 years. downtown is booming and unfortunately there are no stores or supermarkets in this area to service them. There is a severe need of not one but two good supermarkets for downtown. Bayview is trying to build, secured some concessions from the city but they are just a 2 bit player and do not have the financial muscle to move forward. walmart wanted to build a mega mart but that fell through not because of lack of money but the sale of land by Miami Herald for that purpose fell through. and then publix quietly steps in and when they bought that piece of land is unlnown but looks like they hit gold with that location. everybuilding from north of miami river to midtown will shop there. the alternate publix are in brickell (traffic hassles) and 49st (ghetto). From day one this publix will be a money maker. Whole foods and other major players missed the bus. they will be kicking themselves in the ass why they did not see the potential or even if they did why they did not act on it. with regard to p[roperty values, it will definitely affect positively the buildings within walking distance from the store. But for all others in downtown, it will be just a matter of convenience and will not affect the property values.
I tend to agree with you Kramer regarding your analysis of the area…but i also think that it is 10 years off. I only make $110k a year and have $70k in cash and so there are limitations in what i can afford/do.
I also tend to think that $310k is too high but there’s a balance between what is the exact smart financial path and what you actually do…good god life would be really boring if we always followed the exact smart financial path.
So i made my offer of $310k. I will let you know what they say. Probably headed toward living in a 1 br (and renting) for another year…ggggrrrrrr..
From the condo reports i built a diagram of the face of the bay face and have tracked the sales. Here it is.
37 $428,000
36 $440,500 $461,000
35 $457,000
34 $384,000
33 $416,000 $394,000
32 $460,000
31 $458,000
30 $259,000 $480,000
29 $460,500 $454,000
28
27 $505,500
26 $259,000 $448,000
25 $389,000 $558,500
24 $412,500
23
22 $443,500 $372,000
21 $254,000 $235,000 $305,000
20 $390,500 $436,000
19 $437,500 $445,000
18 $377,500 $410,000
17
16 $250,000
15 $240,000 $380,500 $426,500
14 $417,000 $378,000
T-xx02 T-xx04 T-xx06 T-xx08
Gixxer 1000 — You should be a politician. I’ve never seen someone say so little with so many words.
You just posted two huge rebuttals but never actually replied to the crux of my earlier comment. Whether there are 1,000,000 or 500,000 or 225,000 “professionals” in Miami, how do you respond to the following:
If Miami had even half as many well-paid young professionals as you and Euroman claim, and if Miami was so severely underbuilt on higher-end r.e. until the recent boom, why is there still a 2-year backlog of unsold new condos, despite the fact that prices have dropped by 50% or so, despite the massive government guarantees and subsidies, and despite the $8,000 r.e. buyer tax credit, etc., etc.? You’ve repeatedly and stridently claimed that 1 in 5 (or more) jobs in Miami are classified as “professional,” yet you keep failing to explain how it’s possible that, out of anywhere from 225,000 to 1,000,000 “professionals” in So. Fla., a measly 30,000 buyers — a number representing just 3% to 12% of the so-called “professionals” in Miami — still haven’t stepped forward and sold out the new-construction market.
How do you explain this, given all of your incredibly rosy and allegedly rock-solid data on Miami’s job market and household finances? What say you?
owneratinfinity
i would like to take you up on your offer about giving me some info regarding two buildings in the art district area….. i have been really interested in 2 midtown and blue. Can you please let me know you input?
Carlos:
Thanks for the article and the great link!
You da man!
What I find particularly interesting is that sale was limited to the hotel portion, excluding the office, retail or unsold condos. The “embattled owners” parted with the hotel expenses. It should be interesting to see what happens to the hotel. “Four Seasons” is a brand – – and new owners means new views on business operations and standards. Again, it should be interesting to see what impact, if any, the new owners and operators of the hotel portion of the business will have on future sale of the condos.
Thanks again.
scriv
Carlton.
You said, owneratinfinity
i would like to take you up on your offer about giving me some info regarding two buildings in the art district area….. i have been really interested in 2 midtown and blue. Can you please let me know you input?
—-> 2 MIDTOWN – I never did any research on this building because it was not in the area I was interested in and it was too far from the bay to have a water view, however It looks nice they are selling them pretty cheap – look in condoreports . com to find more info on this condo and what they selling for – I would think it has many short sales and repod since It was sold during the peak of the market. Not sure of the condition of the HOA
—-> BLUE – I researched this building, cause my buddy was looking at this building before he bought his place at Q on the Bay in midtown. There are my thoughts:
-> it has great north/east views of the park and the bay.
-> it has many short sales and repos since It was sold during the peak of the market. Not sure of the condition of the HOA
–>the condo themselves are ok , just a middle of the road for a new building
–>Major problem, 195 freeway is directly under the building – you can never sit on your patio or open you windows – this is unacceptable , so I taked my buddy out of buying there. However if you are deaf or if you never open your windows I guess it’s Ok.
–> the best thing about the building is the great views with no buildings sblocking.
–> if I were you I would look at other buildings – goto condoreports .com and use that site or this MCI site to research other buildings in the area. I am sure you can find something better then blue for the money or at least quieter.
Hey guys,
You seem pretty experienced with the different units in Brickell. I’m having a tough time finding anything that meets my requirements for my price range. There are probably no options, but it’s worth asking.
I’m looking for a 1bedroom for rent, no more than $1500 a month (must include cable and internet for that price). The criteria I have is that it’s in brickell or brickell key, has a bay view or an amazing city view (aka don’t want two towers right next to it so the only thing you can see is the 1 tower across the way). the kitchen doesn’t matter much to me, all of them seem fine. No carpet and preferrably would like a bathtub with jets. Also any windows should be floor to ceiling. Also good construction where you won’t hear the people above you or the neighbors (heard many buildings have this problem)
Is there any possible match at all? The emerald seemed pretty nice inside and met the criteria except it has no view. Isola looks like it has good views, but I haven’t been able to see the inside of any of the places.
Anyways any suggestions would be awesome. Thanks!