Miami Condo Market Hot Again According to CNBC’s Diana Olick
March 16, 2011 by Lucas Lechuga
Yesterday afternoon, Diana Olick of CNBC discussed the Miami condo market on her segment "Spring Realty Check". The Miami condo market has made an amazing recovery over the past four years and is once again heating up. Miami condo sales are up 134 percent from a year ago and investors are rushing in to scoop up condos. As Diana says, "Investors should pay attention, or miss the boat".
Over 90% of Miami voters voted to boot Miami mayor Carlos Alvarez and commissioner Natalia Seijas from office yesterday in the biggest local recall in American history, and yet … crickets from Gixxer 1000 and the others who claim all is well in Miami government. Kind of odd.
Who ever said all is well with Miami Govt?
I think just about everyone has acknowledged that Miami is a cesspool of govt corruption, despite that fact it is still a very desireable place to live for many.
It was reported that Miami condo sales grew by 134%, the largest increase in sales in many months, and yet…crickets from Joe and others who claim Miami condo
sales are heading for double dip. Kind of odd.
MMT, not hard to get a 134% increase over the horrible numbers of the past few years. From what i understand, we still have years of inventory to get rid of. 3600 new condos downtown alone. And just the other day, Olick had the following post on Miami condos
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42071203
just keeping things in perspective.
Joe,
I actually have had discussions about the situation on another site. But seeing how this has a very low correlation to the price of Miami condos I see no need to have the conversation here. But as MMT points out the more stable these condos get the less you and other seem to post.
gables, These numbers aren’t just an increase over the horrible numbers of the past few years unless you’re going to tell me 2006 was a horrible year for condo sales. January Condo sales: 2006: 765 2007: 555 2008: 298 2009: 379 2010: 540 2011: 1,262 I’d also like to know what metric people are looking at then they say there are 3 to 4 years of supply. Current numbers from MLS at the end of February for Dade County: Condos Available: 13,111 Avg. # sold over last 6 months: 1291 Months of supply: 13,111/1291 = 10 months Even if you… Read more »
Gables, I read that report. I understand that 134% number in itself does not say much especially when we consider the level of sales to which this number is compared against, Nonetheless, if the numbers were in the negative direction you would have heard quite about it. Let’s face it, the discussion has changed from who would buy all those empty units in downtown Miami to questioning the significance of a 134% increase in sales. Prices have dropped and buyers have moved in the marketplace. What was once a 8 year inventory is now down to 3 years. Even I… Read more »
Well guys, you better buy your condo soon because there is only 10 months of supply left on the market, after they are gone there will be no more because we all know they are not building anymore at these prices, not with the price of commodities today and the expected rise of inflation in years to come. Speaking of infaltion where is Renter Tom? Someone needs to take at trip up the beach to check on him. Hope all the good news about the economy didn’t send him off the deep end.
gixxer, 2006 and 2007 were peak price years for condos in Miami-i would have to say they probably were not peak volume years. and the past couple years has probably not produced the peak in Miami distressed condos due to slow courts and screwed up foreclosure processes. all those short sales you see listed-they will most likely become REO units in the next couple of years. and remember, you have an increase in number of sales because you have a vast increase in the supply of units as well, over that multi year period. MMT, in the past couple of… Read more »
gables, Here is a chart showing Miami home sales back to 2000: http://www.dqnews.com/Images/Graphs/FLDA1210.JPG In 2010 there were 17,086 single family and condo sales. So that is pretty much more activity than any year back to 2000. And 2011 has already started off higher than 2010. And I’m not seeing this vast increase of supply that you are referring to. The number of condos available for sale in December 2009 was 16,169. The number of condos available for sale in February 2011 was 13,111. Also, its pretty obvious that MMT is being facetious. He’s not advocating that you actually go out… Read more »
Wher can I find list of 1200 condos being sold every month in Miami? How many were “purchased” by the banks and how many were under under $25000 and how many were sold by one financial institute to other?
Gixxer – your are the college boy! Any idea?
If the sales are so hot – then why do they have to spend on parties?
Only in Miami!
gixxer, according to your chart, 2010 equalled 2009 and exceeded 2007 and 2008-this seems reasonable. but 2010 does not come close to years 2000-2006. supply i am referring to is the total number of housing units-not just for sale units. the supply of units has increased tremendously since 2000 (somewhere in the neighborhood of 25,000 new condos in the downtown area itself). just based on simple percentage calcs, one should assume a resulting increase in the numberical number of units sold would also occur. but unless you assume a new supply of housing will result in a decrease in the… Read more »
gables, The red bar is for condos. The 2010 amount is higher than 2000 and 2001 activity. Now add in the fact that in 2011 were are starting out 134% higher than 2010 and you can see the the current level of activity is higher than any year on that chart. It’s funny how you round the 22,400 condos up to 25,000. First off, many of those 22,400 units weren’t new units and were simply old units being converted to new units. The total number of housing structures hasn’t increase that much. Also, about half of those units that were… Read more »
Gixxer 1000 — I can’t believe you’re still peddling this nonsense about people moving downtown because it’s such an exciting urban center, blah blah blah. People are still moving downtown because renting is still much cheaper than owning. Please stop with all the nonsense about grocery stores and Starbucks and all that attracting people to downtown. Without an increase in (good) jobs in the urban core, most of this is just a rearranging of the deck chairs — i.e., people who can’t afford to buy snapping up the cheapest possible rents, all while maintaining the classic Miami lifestyle (living beyond… Read more »
gixxer, the condo activity from 2000-2005 is basically the same as 2010. From 2006 through 2008 it collapsed. And rebounded in 09-10 to the same levels as the first half of the decade-and these were distressed sales. Now I have basically the same amount of condo activity in 2010 as 2000, with all the extra supply brought online during the past construction boom. And when you look at Dec 2009 to Dec 2010, there is definately not a 134% increase in activity year over year. you currently have 3,000+ new units waiting to get sold into the marketplace. That is… Read more »
gables, “the condo activity from 2000-2005 is basically the same as 2010.” Exactly. So if we are 134% higher than 2010, then we are 134% higher than the years 2000 – 20005. That contradicts your point that the increase is only because of previous low sales in 2006 and 2007. Current (2011) sales activity is not only higher than low volume year of 2006 – 2010 but is also higher than higher volume years of 2000 – 2005. “you currently have 3,000+ new units waiting to get sold into the marketplace. That is like having 3 new megatowers coming online… Read more »
gixxer, according to the graph you provided the change between Dec 2009 and Dec 2010 is not even close to 134%. There should be essentially no difference between year over year data from Dec 2010 and Feb 2011. So somebody has reported a 134% increase, but the data you presented is essentially for the same period and does not show that magnitude of change in any way, shape or form. So i have to question the validity of the 134% figure-on what basis? because it is not supported by the figures you have provided in the link. if the data… Read more »
Here a couple projects that I’ve heard about:
700 Biscayne – From what I’ve heard Terra Group (900 Biscayne) has found a shortage of 3 and 4 bedrooms in the market and will cater to this segment in this development.
1080 Brickell – The CEO of Rilea group has been in a couple recent articles talking about resurrecting this project soon
http://www.therealdeal.com/miami/art…-1080-brickell
gables, Wow. How you you get year over year info from December 2010 and February 2011?? That’s impossible. The chart that I provided shows the YEARLY number of sales. The 134% increase that is being reported is January’s MONTHLY year over year increase. There were 1,262 condos sold in January 2011. That is 134% higher than the 540 condos sold in January 2010. Also the chart I provided isn’t of the exact same numbers. I got it from DQnews. I don’t know the exact area or criteria they are using. I posted the chart just to show how I was… Read more »
gixxer, your chart is not clear, so i made a mistake in the monthly year over year comparison. But the trend still stands. Year 2010 is still exceeded by 2000-2005. there was more activity a decade ago than today, when total housing supply was much lower. you supplied the 1400 household formation number. if you don’t believe that to be the number, then don’t provide it. but don’t complain if somebody then uses that number in a discussion. people like the idea of living downtown-i don’t dispute that concept. but you continue to imply there is this great demand from… Read more »
“Year 2010 is still exceeded by 2000-2005.” No it’s not. Were talking about condos here. 2010 condo sales were at the same levels of 2000 – 2005 (red portion of the bar). I guess you still cant figure out the chart. “there was more activity a decade ago than today, when total housing supply was much lower.” Care to provide and links to anything corroborating this or is this just what you feel. And last time I checked 2000 was a decade ago. The number I supplied was an estimate simply to show that inventory is needed in the pipeline… Read more »
gixxer, you can’t really be serious. you even provided links to graphs showing the thousands of new condos which came onto the market since early in the decade. and now you question me when i say there is a greater housing stock today than in 2000? now lets just say on average condo sales activity is basically the same between 2000-2005 and 2010, based on the NUMBER of sales. as a PERCENTAGE of existing units the activity in 2010 will be less than what occurred in 2000 because of the increase in total units. sorry if you cannot figure this… Read more »
“you have been barking about urbanism, and how the suburbs are no longer desirable, since before you moved down here. don’t be ashamed of your endorsement of urban cores-be proud of your views.” What the hell are you talking about. Are you telling me that you don’t remember actual converstaions that we had about Aventura but you do remember conversations we never had about urbanism??? I never mentioned focusing on urbanism once before I started school. Let me refresh your memory: ” Gixxer 1000 says: February 24, 2010 at 12:38 pm gables, I’ve actually started to turn my attention toward… Read more »
gixxer, you have posted on here plenty about how urban areas are the new thing and nobody really wants to live in the suburbs anymore. whether this view is based on idealism or you are just pimping the idea for money is not really my concern. this has been the stance you have taken here-and more power to you for that. but you also are attending UM for a “Masters in Real Estate Development and Urbanism”. again, just pointing out a vested interest in urbanism ideas from your background-whether you realize it or not. our original case schiller argument revolved… Read more »
gables, “you have posted on here plenty about how urban areas are the new thing and nobody really wants to live in the suburbs anymore.” I agree and that was after I had already been here for months and was looking at market and demographic data. Again, how is it a vested interest if I’m just following the market? A vested interest would mean that I’m influenced to want to develop in urban areas. If the market was headed toward the suburbs then I would be on here saying how downtown sucks but the suburbs are still great. Because unlike… Read more »
“If I’m so wrong I find it odd that most developers and lenders here agree with me.” I am not saying you are wrong-(i tend to agree with you except you place much more emphasis on the potential demand and its impact on price). But basing yourself on being right because your view is in agreement with most developers and lenders is not so wise. How right have developers and lenders been over the past 5 years? Be careful of the company you keep.
Gixxer and Gables,
get a room already!
have about exchanging phone numbers and taking this discussion offline.
cheers
ps. and yes, hurry up and buy condos or you will be sorry you missed this once in a lifetime opportunity. rock bottom prices. investors coming from all over the place? Never heard that before!