Ten Museum Park Revisited
March 7, 2008
by: Lucas Lechuga
Ten Museum Park was one of the first major condo buildings in Miami to hit the market within the past year. Closings began at Ten Museum Park, almost nine months ago, on June 14, 2007. I thought this would be a great opportunity to revisit Ten Museum Park to see what type of activity its seen since then.
As of today, according to public records, Ten Museum Park has been able to close exactly 75 percent, or 150, of its 200 total units since closings began in June 2007. It’s been a long and winding road to reach 150 closed units. I wonder how long it will take to close out the last 50.
Let’s take a look at the active listings for sale at Ten Museum Park. There are currently 63 active listings in the building at this time.
- 1 Bedroom units (868 square feet)
- 05 line (9 listings) – $355,000-$475,000
- 08 line (10 listings) – $358,000-$560,000
- 2 Bedroom units (1,239 square feet)
- 06 line (9 listings) – $458,000-$680,000
- 07 line (6 listings) – $440,000-$690,000
- 2 Bedroom units (1,949 square feet)
- 02 line (8 listings) – $785,000-$1,495,000
- 03 line (7 listings) – $798,000-$995,000
- 2 Bedroom units (1,906 square feet)
- 01 line (6 listings) – $895,000-$1,350,000
- 04 line (6 listings) – $895,000-$1,385,000
- 4 Bedroom units (4,500 square feet)
- Penthouses (2 listings) – $3,200,000-$3,400,000
There hasn’t been much resale activity since Ten Museum Park began closings. There’s been a total of 3 closed sales in the MLS since that time.
- Unit 1105 sold for $295,000 on January 3, 2008
- Unit 3408 sold for $350,000 on January 25, 2008
- Penthouse 4203, with 4,000 square feet, sold for $2,200,000 on January 31, 2008
Activity seems to have picked up a little, however, as there are currently 4 pending sales at Ten Museum Park.
- Unit 1107 was listed for $455,000 and went pending on January 30, 2008
- Unit 3706 was listed for $475,000 and went pending on February 2, 2008
- Unit 2704 was listed for $748,900 and went pending on February 7, 2008
- Unit 1901 was listed for $975,000 and went pending on February 2, 2008
I haven’t been to Ten Museum Park within the past three weeks but I have heard that the fitness center is finally under way. I’ve also heard that work has begun on the Clinique La Prairie Spa and that it should be completed in about six months. I think everyone would agree that these amenities are long overdue. I know of 3 buyers who have been patiently waiting for this work to get done. I’m sure there are many other buyers patiently waiting as well.
Let’s play with these numbers: 150 units sold with 63 current active listings leaves us with 87 units currently owned and POSSIBLY OCCUPIED. If we assume every one of those 87units are occupied, we have a occupancy rate of 43.5 Percent.
Here is the most likely reality: Of those 87units currently owned, several are probably also listed “by owner” for private sale. Most are probably owned by wealthy foreigners and remain unoccupied most of the year. Driving by Ten Museum at night and you rarely see more than handful of lights on. I would assume the actual number of units where owners/renters occupy the building is somewhere in the range of 40-50 units.
50 Units out of 200 equals 25% Ten Museum has the advantage of being open first…and its still only 25% Full! This is the story with ALL new construction buildings in Brickell. Nobody wants to live in an empty building. I recently moved out of Brickell on the River (newer building) to Brickell Townhouse (older building) and I love it. I finally have neighbors and the feeling of community.
So, 113 (50 unsold + 63 resales) out of 200 of the units are for sale (57% of the building).
As far as prices holding steady in this building, that doesn’t look good.
$400/sq ft to live in a half-empty building in a declining market with 10 years of inventory in a city with declining wages, increasing unemployment, no amenities within walking distance, decreasing population and ridiculous insurance rates!!!!
Where do I sign !?!?
Looks really expensive – there’s got to be cheaper developments out there – if you are looking for biggest bang for the buck – check out this project by Red N Development Group
Tough sell…………
Personally unless its a steal I wouldn’t want to buy anywhere in Miami, but Looks like 10 Museum Park is the place to bet if Downtown Miami, . So — BFG — what do you think about Flamingo now that the North Tower is Canceled? Lucas perhaps we should write another post…so me and BFG could settle this once and for all! =)
the amazing thing is that none of the sellers are really serious about selling their units. the proof is in the pricing. when the market is currently down and will be going further south for the foreseeable future, i’d think a practical selling strategy would be to predict, in rough terms, what the sales price would be in six months. that’s the price that will draw interested buyers today. pricing near the competition for units that have no material difference other than floor level just won’t get it done in this market.
Mike-
The MLS had an addtional 20 or units for rent a few weeks ago. These were not double counted (for sale and rent). For rent only.
So you can add around 67 to the For Sale to get about 87 units empty.
Plus, some of those rented.
So in reality, only about 20-30 people actually bought and moved in out of 200 units.
To: Mr Flamingo – are you sure North is cancelled? The latest article I read only mentioned trouble with the stalled closing date
and is 2br really a deal for a 420K in a building which was built 1960’s? (They asked 540K for 2br where I live in North – I wouldn’t even pay 340 for it as you can rent for less than 2000 a month)
From the street.com today, Miami the worst condo market in 30 years…
Miami
Miami remains the weakest market, reporting a double-digit annual decline of 17.5%. “Miami-Dade is currently going through the worst condominium bust cycle that Florida has seen since 1975,” says economist Hank Fishkind of Fishkind & Associates.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10406744/2/how-home-prices-fared-in-20-markets-in-2007.html
Margus,
I am 99% sure they cancelled the north tower at The Flamingo!
MArgus and Generalmagic…
Yes they cancelled sales of the Flamingo North Tower last week, and do not plan on selling the Center tower either. I lieve there, and it is quite an interesting community with 1/3 being owned by latin families and the other 2/3 being young professionals who like to party.
“BFG — what do you think about Flamingo now that the North Tower is Canceled?”
What do you mean? How does that change anything for better or worse? The developer is essentially admitting that nobody wants those things, and they’re calling it quits.
I think exactly what I thought before: that those units were vastly overpriced and that most people that bought them are going to wish they hadn’t.
Party on!
Jeremy – great article, thnx – “Home prices fell 15% in San Diego between December 2006 and December 2007. Only 31% of San Diego households can afford to buy a home here” & “Only 20% of San Francisco residents can afford to buy a home here”
Makes you wonder what % people who live here can afford to buy a condo in Miami…
Flamingo…..big trouble. People in the south tower paid way to much for a building built in 1960.
I think it will eventually get converted once the market turns, its highly unlikely it will stay all rentals. Perhaps it will be another developer that might take over or they might just cut back on the fantasy courtyard they had in mind.
BFG(what’s with that name anyway): the developer like most sellers thought that their product is worth more than market value. That is the REAL reason why it didn’t sell… There is still lots of demand. I just sold the other one bedroom short sale, today.
Margus: of course but South Tower Rents are a lot higher than the North, wouldn’t you agree? You are a realtor you should know this, compare apples to apples. That 2 Bedroom foreclosure unit for 420K should lease for 2600- 2800 on year lease and if you are a smart owner you can lease it short term for 3500-4000 a month or 1500 a week…. Check your facts before you post. And yes I believe we can snag this one for less than the 420K listing price once I have the buyer ready I’ll let you know.
Mr. Flamingo,
Your dreaming! It wasn’t because of the fantasy courtyard the the Flamingo did not convert to a condo for all three towers. Come on now! That property will not be entirely converted. Just wait. Prices are going to plummet because people either overpaid or they thought they could flip. Just wait my friend.
They allow weekly rentals at the Flamingo? No wonder its like a Howard Johnson hotel on the weekends.
I see several south tower units listed below what they paid in Oct 2006. Even if they can get asking price (doubtful), some of those sellers are losing $60,000 to $70,000 after commissions after only 18 months.
Mr. Flamingo said: “BFG(what’s with that name anyway): the developer like most sellers thought that their product is worth more than market value. That is the REAL reason why it didn’t sell… There is still lots of demand.”
Aren’t you and I basically saying the same thing? When I said “nobody wanted them”, I obviously meant that nobody wanted to pay those prices for them – not that the condos had zero demand at any price. The conversion company couldn’t make the deal work at the true market value (a much lower price), and wisely abandoned the project.
My assertion is simply that the prices that the South Tower people paid were much higher than the true market value. The fact that the developer has given up trying to sell units at those prices backs up my assertion.
Flamingo has some of the ugliest units I’ve seen in such a prime location. Plus, it’s still essentially a giant apartment complex. Different kinds of neighbors from an upscale condo building.
As far as my “name” goes – it’s not a name at all. Just some arbitrary letters that came to mind. I guess I was probably thinking of the “BFG” weapon from old-school video games I used to play. Who cares? It is wise to remain anonymous on the Internet. Aside from avoiding exposure to trouble (e.g. Lucas’s frivolous Opera Tower lawsuit), it’s never a good idea to leave a written record if you don’t have to. I’m just here for the great info Lucas provides, and some discussions/debates with people interested in the Miami condo market.
I wonder if the BangBus.com guys are still filming pornos in the Flamingo…and I wonder if the Flamingo’s condo docs specifically forbid xxx business enterprises on condominium premises.
I know some people paid $250K+ for 680sf studios in that south tower. Now that’s a poor investment.
Drew,
You can’t isolate Flamingo because it isn’t the only building in which Bangbus is shooting. Google “Parc Lofts videos” and click on the second link. Parc Lofts is an industrial loft building in the Arts District of Miami.
I didn’t realize Miami was moving up in the porn industry.
Maybe that will be enough to get us through this recession. Ass Parade and the BangBus should provide a nice infusion of porn dollars into the economy, as well as provide jobs for these “young professionals” that these condos were supposed to be built for.
I heard rumors of porn being shot at Parc Lofts about a year ago from the concierge. Looks like he was right. At the time, I thought he was just being overly excited about a few good looking women venturing into the building from time to time. Guess that wasn’t the case.
I’ve also heard the same thing about the Floridian and the Waverly, but I haven’t been able to confirm anything.
BFG-
FYI in the blog-o-sphere the annon. commentors are the least respected. They are usually the “bubbleheads” that come in and predict the world IS GOING TO END because prices retreat 20 or 30%.
Who cares? Let em retreat. It’s where they should’ve been all along. Big deal. Why is everyone picking at a wound HOPING to make it worse and loving the blood that flows from it.
Lucas, I wonder what will happen with all your commentors in a few years?
Hey the Bangbus guy Christoper Hinson just bought the Bee Gee’s home on upper North Bay Road for like $16M.
His ex-wife is a realtor with a super-annoying voice.
1-800-lucaslechuga.com
I thought they shot porn in all the buildings. Lights, camera, actions. I was showing a unit at Icon a few months ago and knocked on the door because we heard someone inside. A head popped out of the door and told us we could not show. I had a pushy agent with me who demanded we see the unit. We were told “10 minutes please.” Upon entering we were told we could not go into “that bedroom.” There were lights and productions equipment set up in the living room and multiple voices behind that closed door. Not bad, the rent for the day probably covers more than having an irritating tenant for the month.
Kevin – “bubbleheads” seem a bit derogatory coming from a Realtor®. Just kidding. The housing bubble is obviously real and we are experiencing it. I have found the most people that post here are not overly pessimistic about the state of the real estate market…..it’s pretty darn bad and the excesses are being ringed out. I have no desire to make it worse and exercising caution in this environment is prudent given the amount of money it takes to buy a home. Financial ruin is a very bad thing for people to have to go through.
I just went to that website…..oh my gosh, I didn’t know they really had film in that camera!!!!!!!!
LOL
Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if a bunch of Realtors® aren’t in those films….business is pretty slow right now…..
Did anyone today read the front page of “USA Today” or the “Financial Times” today?
Kevin, Jenna called me tonight about some porn shoot tomorrow at Apogee South Beach. Is it true that there’s gonna be a porn shoot there tomorrow? If not, let me know, so I can call Ms. Jameson to let her know that her shoot is canceled so I can take her out on the town.
True story – was in a nude jacuzzi with Jenna in Jamica…. no joke.
Buyer Tom,
How long did it take her to realize that you weren’t part of the shoot?
Buyer Tom
Sorry, guy. The bubble burst in 4/2005. It blew open AND you missed it.
This is just the messy aftermath. All analysis goes back to 4/2005.
Can you believe you missed it? The thing that you live for the most and have look forward to with such great anticipation. IT ALREADY happened. We’ve been in the midst of the BURST bubble for almost THREE years. Where have you been? What are you gonna do?
You won’t risk financial ruin, Buyer Tom. You SAY you are going to rent. You will be the beneficiary of all this. Rent, rent, rent!
How will this mess ruin you?
P.S. I don’t “do” rentals. Can’t wait til all the people in the banking industry lose their jobs…then all of us Realtors ® will be enjoying that one.
Fair is fair!
No I wasn’t in a shoot in Jamaica. My earlier post about being on the web was a joke but the Jenna in Jamaica wasn’t a joke. It was at Hedonism III, no video cameras there at the time but she was teaching two other girls how to take in water and then expel the water, quite a talent I must say. Anyway she was nice. I didn’t know who she was but a buddy did who later got to have some private time with her. Was interesting, but being with a porn star isn’t really my thing. Another time, some of the playmates were doing photo shoots and got hang out with them…..nice girls and got to watch the shoots too. Then there was the co-ed nude volleyball game on the beach……. Was fun. But again, I’m not into the porn stars per se.
Kevin – a purchase wouldn’t ruin me, but there are a lot people out there that have been financially ruined, and that is unfortunate. I’m one of the financial freaks who spends maybe 10%-15% of my income…..I’m not much of a frivolous spender anyway….I’m not cheap or anything like that, I just have always been a saver and just buy cars, homes, without debt unless the money is cheap. Made my first million (net worth, AFTER taxes) at 25 while in graduate school, multimillionaire at 30, etc. sold another business in 2006. I’m sure if I was married, I’d would be spending a lot more!!! My analysis clearly says RENT for now until you know where you want to buy. If the market wasn’t going down I’d just buy something now and look for another place later. Oh well, haven’t rented since undergrad……
Kevin®, learn to type the ®…. LOL Hey, if you have any good deals in a fun area in South Beach, let me know I might be interested.
Buyer Tom
You know I don’t do rentals! I’d do porn first.
LMAO
Where are the auditions?
Are auditions in the center or south tower of Flamingo?
Poor Juan.
That Flamingo just sux.
Lucas,
I took a tour of Marina Blue again yesterday. I think it definitely has some advantages compared to other buildings in the area. Expect closings to be higher than you expect. 🙂
Oh Lucas is being challenged!
Getting popcorn and parked!
BLOG WAR!
That’s good news that they’ll be able to close 65% versus 60%.
just my opinion….don’t sue me over it
by the way….I haven’t been served yet
Lucas,
Why were you wrong. Are you admitting you were wrong?
This is SHOCKING.
Buyer Tom?
Julian?
Cyrus?
BFG?
Shocking.
If anyone cares, they have super-fresh raspberries that the old Publix on Dade Blvd.
Kevin,
Who cares about that when they have LA Fitness at Mary Brickell Village.
uR dRiNkIn’ THE Related’s kool aid
Are they really “super-fresh”?
amazing. I love framboise.
“The bubble burst in 4/2005”
Maybe air first started to come out in 2005, but I doubt we’ve seen a burst yet. My bet is that it’s going to be a 2-step process like the Nasdaq bubble. The Naz bubble was an unprecedented bubble and so is this RE bubble that is unwinding. If the RE bubble were historically “normal”, it could play out in 1 step, but I think you’d be wise to take your cue from the Naz 2 step bubble pop from it’s unprecedented bubble circa 2000.
You’re going to see some panic selling that will entice the so-called smart money to enter prematurely. Maybe Perez’s fund will come in here. This buying will make people feel like the recovery is in place. When this first wave of funds and buyers get wiped out, you’ll see a second leg of panic selling, and only when that second leg bottoms out will you get an idea of the real bottom.
Just an educated guess based on the Naz correction. Take it fwiw, but in my estimation, we haven’t even really seen the completion of the first leg down, let alone a bounce and a more drawn out second leg down.
If you want another clue telling us when the real leg down in the market has started, just see if Barbara Corcoran starts shutting her pie hole. When the Naz was in it’s second leg down, Goldman was smart enough to stick Abby Joseph in a closet for a couple years… as long as you see Corcoran yapping about finding values, you know RE is still far from any true bottom.
Quoting “Buyer Tom”:
“Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if a bunch of Realtors® aren’t in those films….business is pretty slow right now…..”
ROFLMAO…..Have you checked out: http://miami.eros-guide.com/
Last I looked, there were at least two on there AND two formed neighbors of mine from the Center Tower at the Flamingo!
Kevin said: “BFG-FYI in the blog-o-sphere the annon. commentors are the least respected. They are usually the “bubbleheads” that come in and predict the world IS GOING TO END because prices retreat 20 or 30%.”
Kevin, the vast majority of commenters here and on almost ANY blog, are anonymous. Anyone not using their full name is anonymous.
Whether or not I respect someone else’s analysis or opinion of the market has more to do with what they are saying and how they are supporting their arguments with evidence – not whether they are using their real name and giving their address and phone number away to the world.
Fact is, the “bubbleheads” were right, the cheerleading Realtors were wrong. Deal with it. Most of the intelligent posters in this forum never said anything about the “sky falling” or armageddon or anything like that — just that prices have to fall back to levels that are supported by fundamentals. In Miami’s case, that’s a pretty big drop. And that’s not even factoring in the huge oversupply of units, with more being added.
Most of the “bubbleheads” here have an un-emotional outlook on the market. We’re not getting worried or upset. Just trying to look at the big picture and take an honest assessment of where the Miami market is going.
I do agree with your assertion that the bubble “popped” in 2005. However, it didn’t “pop” in the sense that prices dropped significantly all at once. The 2005 “pop” was simply hitting the point where sales started slowing down and inventory started piling up. Sellers, mostly in denial, didn’t start lowering their prices until the reality started setting in later in 2006. In 2007, we finally saw some significant drops in prices in some cases.
However, the problem we have in Miami in the simplest terms is that there are too few buyers for too many condos. Prices are a function of supply and demand. When supply (number of condos on the market) goes up or stays the same, and demand (number of potential buyers) goes down, prices fall. Even as of 2008, the problem is actually getting worse. Supply is still increasing and number of sales each month is decreasing. We have a multi-year supply in most areas of Miami. During the boom years, we had a 3-4 month supply in most cases. And I won’t even get into the economic recession, global credit cruch, huge growing number of foreclosures in the pipeline, and a host of other problems that only compound the problem.
Bottom line is – you seem to ignore this. You call upon your own personal stories of people flipping units in Apogee (which I have not seen in the public records yet – I am watching closely), but fail to address the big picture.
YOU are the one who is losing respect here among the other posters – not the anonymous “bubbleheads”. You flip-flop back and forth from saying things like “I’m not a cheerleader” and “let’s wait and see what happens” to talking about how untouchable the Miami Beach market is (despite an overwhelming supply) and angrily critisizing people who have wisely chosen to rent instead of buying a depreciating asset during one of the worst real estate markets in history.
the bubble has certainly not burst yet. too many people in denial of what is to come. $400-$500k condos, of which we now have an enormous oversupply, will have to come down in price tremendously. Prices for 2b condos will need to reach $300k in good buildings for the local miami workers (and fairly well paid ones at that) to buy and live in.
the argument about foreign buyers saving the market is bogus. sure, they will buy, and maybe prolong the fall as they buy throughout the decline, but there are not nearly enough foreign buyers to alleviate the oversupply, and the market will revert to what the local economy can support. I do not believe the brickell area has enough to entice massive investment by foreigners as a vacation home-it is not a resort area.
current owners/speculators cannot and will not take the loss needed to sell the unit, so they will hang on through the coming year as best they can, but eventually unit will foreclose. the bank will eventually write off a significant loss and resell into the marketplace. i know the RE industry does not like/want to use these sales as comps, but that is the reality. foreclosure prices will set the true market value, and the sooner this is accepted the better.
all that said, there are still some great new properties in the brickell area. plaza on brickell appears to have alot going for it. while not on the bay, it does have a central location which will make it quite attractive to urbanites. as for the original topic of this post, TMP, i was once a big fan of the building, but my thoughts have moved south recently. especially if you are a local planning on living in the unit year round. as a vacation unit, the building looks great. as a local worker-not so sure.
Regarding Barbara Corcoran, I saw here last night on TV again on High Net Worth, or whatever it was called. She is an idiot as she idolized someone buyer she imaged who would buy a $60M+ trophy property in NYC who is on his third wife etc….and even commented that the townhome was probably cheaper than his second wife. Have we really fallen that far as a country that we worship such wealth to make such bizarre statements in such an admiring and bragging manner. She does need to get a clue and maybe her own falling portfolio of real estate will shut her up….. I lost all respect for that lady and her opinions.
Looks like Kevin could always join those films as a fall back profession…..or join the sequel for Zoolander……. (that was good natured joke).
Guys.. Please… you got to Respect Kevin, after all…. he is……. The MOST respected name in Real Estate…lol so you thought of that one all by yourself, K?
BFG: is Big Fraking Gun…. Doom..very scary game when it first came out… Oh and yes its all MCZ ‘s fault they just plain sux… but just admit it… people live here for just one thing… we have the largest concentration of the smoke shows anywhere in the planet…..
Mr. Flamingo,
That was funny!
Kevin,
If the bubble burst in 04/05 are you saying
that we are bottoming out here? Bankers ARE
losing their jobs on Wall St & Main St. Especially
ones tied to mortgage backed securities. Hedge
funds who bought mortgage sec’s are imploding.
The mortgage sec’s market is over 4 trillion in
size, the same size roughly as the US treasury
market. The extreme liquadations & contractions in play currently in this hugely
levered security market will continue, in my view, to seriously impact for one, the Miami
area market. So you are already getting your
wish, bankers are losing their jobs in droves &
credit is running for the hills with them. I’d rethink not doing rentals maybe.
It’s all funny until a girl your seeing is on bangbus.
Met her at skybar about 4 months back. Had a few rendezvouss. Nothing serious came of it.
Then friend emails me her site on milfhunter last week.
Ouch.
Gentleman, be careful in Miami.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87988925
So Tibor expects as many as 100 will walkaway from Opera?
Yes, gentlemen, the bubble did burst in 4/2005.
Messy aftermath. Pontificate ALL you’d like. Go round-n-round with each other.
Bubble burst already. Sorry.
Messy aftermath.
PL, that is great. I’m always on the lookout around town for those strumpets who are just trying to make some cash “to get through college.” Its like a pseudo-celebrity sighting when I see one of them. At least you didn’t get too involved with her. Finding out that she starred in captainstabbin.com after a year of dating would be harsh.
I am in awe that the co-founder Hinson bought a $16.5M mansion on North Bay Road. I guess I helped him out with all those $4.95 3-day trials I’ve bought over the years…
Kevin
“Messy aftermath”? What is your point?
Kevin – I would say the bubble peaked in ’05, then slowly came down, the burst is more recent and accelerated with the credit crunch. So, in a sense everyone is correct it is just a matter of what you call it. You had agreed we’re about halfway through this price decline so what do you tell your buyers? Buy now, but prices are going to go down 10%-20% over the next year or two?
Gentlemen
Sorry, No one here knows where we are at in the cycle.
Buyer Tom,
If someone loses their house because they made a bad decision……um who’s decision was it to sign the papers???? It was theirs.
So your probably one of the people who thinks some sort of bailout is needed, right?
Ahh, those mortgage backed securities that we sold off to all of those countries…
Little known fact—do you know why GWIII wants to “bailout” the mortgage mess?
A stipulation in countries like China buying those MBS is that if they find FRAUD in any of the loans bundled the US has to buy them back at full price.
Wouldn’t that be pretty. The US buying those loans back that are now worth 1/2 of what they were sold for.
32 % of the units at Bentley by the Bay North & South are currently listed. That’s 55 units from
a total of 170. A glance at the sales history is
jaring . A 1/1 closed in Mar 08′ for $390k.
Currently ecxept for a 1/1 listed at $450k (as
a foreclosure I’ve heard) with unfinished floors , all the other 1/1’s available are still at or above $500k. These beautiful towers have had one closing in 2008 so far for $390k. Why are the listings still so high in the face of this data & the
low turnover? Back in 05/06 when the market
was at its height , buyers still looked at comps & listings which were maybe typically 10% higher than those closing levels. Now we have nearly 5000 units listed for sale in MB & ~72 closings last month, yet, despite huge supply buyers have to contend for the most part with 05/06 pricings in building after building. This “mess” needs to be addressed primarily by the Realtors in helping themselves as well as sellers & buyers return to a real market.
Sorry Kevin – I’m not in favor of bailing out anybody here. One thing is certain, we aren’t at the bottom of this downturn. Most educated guesses place us at about midway. Not sure why you think I would want a bailout since my posts don’t indicate anything like that. As far as the “US” buying back stuff, that’s BS.
Kevin
The MBS fraud you’re talking about applies to the structural integrity of the securities. There
is no agreement between the U.S Gov & China or
anyone else to support the MBS market. That
responsibility would fall on the issuer of the MBS. Lehman or Merrill for example. Any token help the GOV is offering like freezing rates for 30 days is aimed at voters in an election year & is in truth meaningless, but funny you mentionned China, they along with some other countries are the ones bailing out our banking system currently in the form of sovereign Investment Funds. I can’t imagine where you’re getting your “little known facts”
Bentley Bay has been in disrepair for years. I wonder if the Association is broke? The balconies have been in bad shape since 2005 correct? They could have built an entire new tower in the time its taking them to repair the balconies.
Its also one of those “valet only” buildings that spells disaster.
Seanjohn
Come on, don’t you think that the Lehman or Merrill have GWIII’s /Bernanke’s ear.
I’m talking about language in those agreement if fraud is found in those loans.
Why do you think the gov’t doesn’t want the foreclosure situation to get worse. Those “fraud clauses” would kick it.
These clauses are really not widely-known, thus making them “little known BUT important facts.”
Buyer Tom,
“BS”—wow- that’s impressive and really backs-up your point.
😉
Brian
Thanks for the feedback. I wasn’t 100% on the valet only & I agree that hurts but I also think its something Condo Associations can change.
The disrepair spells of deeper trouble , the repairs do appear to be on a shoestring given the
everlasting plywood on the balconies.
These potential issues with buildings & finances need to come clean along with all the pain in the same way Wall St is trying to do on the securities end now. Otherwise we face 10 years of continued losses & inertia.
>>Most educated guesses place us at about midway.
Please refer to comment #65.
I owe you a million that’s my problem
I owe you a trillion that’s your problem.
Oh Kevin, I didn’t know you were so tight with #43 to know such secret business dealings…..BTW, I’ve traveled with him and so its news to me about the buy back provision (it doesn’t exist).
I can’t comment on the specific indentures/terms on Fannie and Freddie or other paper that is being discussed here, though I am going to get copies from my Bond team at work tomorrow for a few examples across the spectrum. I would however doubt there is anything either as explicit or as generalised as Kevin suggests. EVERY bond, wrapper, CDO etc will have different terms and “fraud” versus criminal or civil negligence are entirely different things
What I can tell you is that in the case of a certain Puerto Rican bank (which was the indicator in 2006 that all was not right in the mortgage market) that loans which were sold on/packaged and taken off balance sheet, sometimes do have triggers with respect to defaults/delinquencies etc which provide the purchaser with a put.
I would just repeat, in the theoretical world of some bonds/structures being able to be put back to the government of the regulator of the issuer, that when you sit on $1.5trn of US$ foreign currency reserves and you are fighting inflation running at over 7% in your domestic economy, it’s hardly in the Chinese interests to shoot themselves in the foot as is being suggested.
It’s way more complicated than that.
Buyer Tom
You know EVERYTHING about real estate, where we are in the cycle everything about the mortgage meltdown, values in every market in South Florida—
Hey maybe you should get into real estate since you know so much. 🙂
Hey Lucas, are you working on Buyer Tom’s $800/mo rental in Allapattah? BT—It’s a real estate meltdown you should offer $260/mo
Hey Buyer Tom–
You are gonna be soooooo annoyed with me next month.
Lots of BIG stuff going down that’s just going to p*ss u off.
You’ll have some excuses like “cherry-picked” or “anecdoctal”—–I’m calling it right here in comment #78
Kevin – Pretty juvenile. Anyway, yes I have made several million in real estate too. And it was in the midwest so no bubble buying or selling. The average Realtor® is hurting, if you’re doing well, more power to you, there are opportunities out there, but they are limited. Why would I be p*ssed off at your success or anyone else’s success? I have helped a lot of people make a lot of money simply by advising them without any expectation of receiving 1¢. I want people to do well and believe in win-win transactions. I could buy 90% of the places that are for sale in SoBe with cash, but why would I do that when I can pay 10%-20%+ less in a year or two? I haven’t been a renter since undergrad…I owned in grad school. But buying doesn’t make sense. I hope you do well since I wouldn’t want you to have do bang/bait or whatever bus is paying…. 🙂 LOL
Kevin
There are no “fraud clauses” . Most of the securitized loans that are having default issues are private label sub prime & ALT-a type loans. Loans that FNMA/FHLMC/GNMA never packaged, not that the Gov technically guarantees the “conforming non jumbo” loans that they do give an implied full faith & credit to. The bottom line is we are in uncharted territority with FNMA/FHLMC stuff especially & the market is as we speak reacting in kind. The sub prime & ALT-a A securities have long since fallen off a cliff . Mortgage fraud in the big picture of our MBS problems doesn’t register a blip on the screen. Right now distressed liquadations of all MBS are choking as a result of a credit crunch that is rendering Bernanke, the White House & Wall st bystanders like the rest of us ina way that they fear & I agree will continue to impact the real estate market ina way we have not seen before.
There will always be some big transactions in a handful of certain South Beach buildings especially in the mulit million dollar range. Its a unique place & credit, typically, for this type of buyer isn’t an issue. However Kevin, that is small club. Good for you if you’re plugged in frankly. This doesn’t change the fact that the vast majority of MB closings are in the sub 1 million range. Nearly half of all the closings on Buy The Beach Feb Condo sales data which covers South Beach to Sunny Isles in all the beachside communities are under $350k. As we all know the price & sales on the multi million dollar properties are down as well , the big difference is that these owners are more likely to be able to absorb the pain while not being as dependant on the credit markets as the majority of the buyers.
If anyone is really interested in what’s going on with CDO’s, proposed bailouts, and the economy as a whole, the best economics blog on the internet is:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Really good stuff. The guy who writes it is brilliant.
Lucas,
You wrote, “Kevin, Jenna called me tonight about some porn shoot tomorrow at Apogee South Beach. Is it true that there’s gonna be a porn shoot there tomorrow? If not, let me know, so I can call Ms. Jameson to let her know that her shoot is canceled so I can take her out on the town”
Seems like your up on the porno shoots down here with amazing contacts for the porno biz. How about posting a list of all of the buildings with porno shoots, instead of just a few.
Also if you could list date times of porno closings, and there affect on resale values.
BFG
Agree. Great Blog. If I read correcectly some of our Euro based buyers may be fading as well.
Responding to a post on your blog Lucas…….
“I thought they shot porn in all the buildings. Lights, camera, actions. I was showing a unit at Icon a few months ago and knocked on the door because we heard someone inside. A head popped out of the door and told us we could not show. I had a pushy agent with me who demanded we see the unit. We were told “10 minutes please.” Upon entering we were told we could not go into “that bedroom.” There were lights and productions equipment set up in the living room and multiple voices behind that closed door. Not bad, the rent for the day probably covers more than having an irritating tenant for the month.”
Any idea what the price difference is between renting to an adult film crews for weeks at a time, versus one month rental income? Do you think the Porno industry is targeting condo buildings with a large percentage of walkaway ie. lot’s of desperate rentals?
We are accepting auditions for the play “Death of a Condo Flipper”. If interested contact University of Miami Creative Writing Department. Playwright Dr.Waxkill can be reached at
[email protected]
Our first audition is March 29, 2008. The play has been accepted and nominated for the Spirit Award and will be playing off broadway later this year. Please send resume and clear photograph. We are primarily interested in extras at this time.
thank you.
Death of a Condo Flipper – I hope its not another porno…..I mean those floppers probably can’t even afford clothes now anyway….. Will Porn for Food.
I have to agree with comment #7. I believe that sellers in 10 Museum Park are being unrealistic. I’m currently home-shopping and I have visited units in the building – the 2 story 2 bedrooms are very nice units, BUT they are in downtown and priced very poorly…especially since the spa and gym are still in the works and the building is essentially unoccupied! I like the building and think it will be a great place to be…but that will be some years down the road. Right now, it’s still in an under-occupied, crime-riddled, overbuilt part of Miami.
I’m a cash buyer, which I know is valuable…personally, if the prices in buildings like 10 Museum don’t get real quickly enough, I’ll probably end up picking up a unit in Miami Beach instead…I’d rather have a slightly longer commute than sink money into an overpriced home.
I simply can’t fathom how the price/square foot in a building like 10 Museum is higher than in Aqua Allison Island or the Bath Club – that is beyond insane to me!
Will $/sqf ever drop below $3oo in buildings like Ten Museum or Marina Blue? Also, why do sellers list for unrealistic prices? Example unit 2808 @560K…
Any news on this building regarding fraud? Are most units being rented?
Just noticed unit 1505 dropped to 280K on MLS. When will we see price more drops in this building?
I am looking to buy in Ten Museum Park in the next 6 months, I was wondering if they have any lease to own programs??Amazing building!