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Some posts related to bulk buying of bank REO by hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds, along with surprising Section 8 rentals:
The Mortgage Crisis brings Unforeseen Neighbors
Big Time Buying in Foreclosed Single Family Homes
everything looks so cheap, not impressed at all. the view south is nice though.
I agree. Looks like an old retirement home on the Miami Beach. Like the bathroom though.
“The residents of the condominium buildings located within the gated riverfront communities such as The Ivy, Mint, Wind and Cima will be able to share the planned soccer field and tennis courts. ”
How many units total is this whole gated development? Is the Ivy the first to start closings?
FWIW, link to a map of the physical address. Click “Aerial” on the map and zoom in to get an idea of the location.
http://maps.live.com/?q=92+SW+3rd+St+Miami%2c+FL+33130&mkt=en-US&FORM=BYRE
92 SW 3rd St Miami, FL 33130
Unfortunately, it looks like it’s North of the River. South of the River would have put you 3 blocks from Mary Brickell Village.
North makes it 4 blocks + a bridge.
What are the units going for? And couldnt you just use the Metromover to get to Brickell?
Building actually looks nice….Lucas, what is your OVERALL impression? Good, bad, fair, high-end? cheap?
My thoughts are
1) location…not so good…as mentioned, long hike over bridge to anything worthwhile…metromover stops nearby though…
2)views….very impressive, BUT, Cima (when built) will eventually destroy most south facing
views
3)prices…what are they? will hold value or drop like a rock?
4)amenities…don’t look bad…like the pool tables and air hockey
Lucas, why do you have all those pics of amenities and then only 4 pictures of the actual units. Most people will be spending 95% of their lives IN the unit. I will be PAYING for the actual unit. More pics of the unit (inside the Unit) if you want to make a sale to me. Have I mentioned that the pictures should be inside the unit?
yet another miami condo designed more to look nice in a glossy brochure than to be a practical, functional living unit.
so I guess I won’t be letting guests (well, the ugly ones) use my shower. in a glossy brochure: 100 points. in practical, real world: 0. (not to mention shower greatly limiting pool to which unit could later be sold. Other than that, a great idea.)
pretty appliances, but where would one actually do the meal prep? in those 16 inches of countertop next to the sink?
location is awful. Putrid miami river directly to the south, i-95 off-ramp directly to the north. surrounded on either side by new buildings going up. Never go outside unless you are driving somewhere. Surrounding area is derelict central.
and since when is sharing ammenities with surrounding buildings a good thing?
do the floorplans at least include linen closets? (whoever designed Plaza on Brickell could have perhaps included these!)
as long as Miami continues to have no oversupply of condos, this should still do okay…
The loft (1030) at Met 1 for $229 seems like good value–location is better than Ivy
I completely agree “probably too cynical”. I stayed in a hotel in the Carribean with that see through restroom crap. It was disgusting. Who wants to look at the sillouette of someone taking a dump? That exact washing and drier is in my cheap $1000/month apartment. My landlord is known to cut corners. so I am certain that these are the cheapest available washer/drier combo on the planet.
washer*
Lucas,
Why didn’t you rank the miami river condos on your condo ranking page? If you sell them, you must rank them. I guess as per your ranking system criteria, all those buildings should rank between 4 to 5.5. What say.
the nicest area is the Roads section – its has a nice feel to it – it has some nice condos and many single family houses. very central location close to Brickell, Miami Beach, Key Biscayne, coconut Grove.
That washing machine is on sale at Best Buy for $351.49. Model # WBSR3140GWW.
That looks like a propane grill under one of the green covers on the roof deck. I’m sure that’s not allowed, but a least they put it next to the fire alarm box. They probably store extra propane in the electrical room.
JL, one building next to Ivy has started closings, “wind,” I believe. Closing rate appears to be somewhere between abysmal and cataclysmic. (same developer that “allegedly” grossly overpaid recently on four units in one of their other developments “purportedly” to boost sales comps, but I can’t prove any of this. mere heresay from previous pages in this blog.)
i dunno…air hockey makes this project pretty damn cool (no joke).
what it comes down to is what makes this project any different than all the other stuff that’s coming online. no joke…aside from the colors of the lobby and some cosmetic differences, how are any of these buildings different? lucas…i know you have a condo rankings page, but really, with these buildings, it’s like comparing the left side of the street to the right side.
as for the shower…itwould really force you to think hard about who you settled down with. maybe that’s not such a bad thing.
I kind of like the large open vibe of all the common spaces, it is different. Obviously land is cheap where they built.
White is cool until it gets dirty so it could look crappy pretty fast if it turns into a rental haven. A soccer field would be pretty funny… but I’d take a developer’s intent to deliver with a grain of salt… actually make it a few pounds.
Jcrimes, what if you have friends over and they use the toilet or the shower?
Wow, I was right about the washer and drier being cheap. At least they bought American. hehehe.
Interested
i have a penchant for scatological humor so frankly, the toilet “vue” would be a source for comedic relief in my household.
I wonder how fast they will shut off “The Ivy” waterfall to conserve on the HOA.
In a short sale when the underlying mortgage has been securitized who exactly takes the hit when it goes through?
seanjohn
depends on where you are in the trust. your typical rmbs deal has several tranches. lower tranched positions get greater returns but in exchange, move up the ladder in terms of losses. for example, the lowest tranche would have the greatest return but would also be sitting in pole position with respect to first losses. if this tranche goes out of the money, you move up the ladder to the next tranche…and repeat the process.
I think they had a bulk sale for half that amount. Maybe you can sue em?
I have been looking daily at the miamidade.gov website, where you can browse recorded sales. There is nothing past June. Does anyone know what is the typical delay between a sale and it showing up in the site?
the more I think about it, the more I hate the shower window-thingy.
great marketing ploy: every guy imagines a hot chic soaping herself in the shower while he watches from bed. but think about it: if she gets up in the middle of the night and turns on the bathroom light, the bedroom will flood with bright light. what every one needs at 3am. and whenever the bathroom light is on and bedroom has low light, person in bedroom will see EVERYTHING– yeah, that should kill the romance pretty quickly. “uhh, honey. could you run the water next time you spit in my sink? jeezus christ why do you need to use that much toilet paper? sure, help yourself to my deodorant…. yes, you have been putting on make-up this whole time, I can see you! don’t look in there! so why are you giggling?? no, I don’t know what I was thinking when I bought magnum-size…..”
Guys, have you seen the even newer and more modern bathroom concept? Studio bathroom. No rooms whatsoever. The bathroom area of the studio is right next to the kitchen. It’s the hot thing in Europe now.
bathrooms kinda remind me of Ten Museum Park.
Looks great in concept, maybe for a vacation hotel someplace, but horrible for every day use. They have no privacy and its like your bed is sitting inside the bathroom.
I have seen open bathroom concepts before and it is not practical. There should be one place in the whole wide world, where you can go in, shut the door and be able to shut off from the outside world. For those few minutes, it becomes your own sacred sanctum sanctorum. There are a few things, even your own wife/husband/boyfriend/girlfriend should not be privy of.
I love this building… The final finishes in the building are a lot more detailed than your other buildings in Brickell. The developers did not take any short cuts and delivered a good product. Prices are great, and they make it well worth it to live here.
The Kitchen cooking area is very large and workable if you can serve and eat off the floor.
Anybody know the price range on units in this building? I would rate it as average or above. Nice new building makes it attractive, but in the longer term does not offer anything to make it stand out beyond a nice place to live if HOA/management maintain the property well.
At the end of the day, building suffers the same issue most other new “luxury” buildings suffer-they are not truly “luxury”. Nice pool, parking (even if valet) and a few common areas are not luxury-they are expected. In most other cities, many people can rent or buy apartments, including nice new garden apartments, with same quality at significantly lower prices. Miami tends to warp the concept of luxury quite a bit.
“Guys, have you seen the even newer and more modern bathroom concept? Studio bathroom. No rooms whatsoever. The bathroom area of the studio is right next to the kitchen. It’s the hot thing in Europe now.”
Interested:
My apologies but I cannot allow you to credit the Europeans with the “newer and more modern studio bathroom concept” when it has been employed in rural areas of southeast asia for centuries.
shwin said: “My apologies but I cannot allow you to credit the Europeans with the “newer and more modern studio bathroom concept” when it has been employed in rural areas of southeast asia for centuries.”
You left the door open for this: It has also been employed for years by the bums on Biscayne between Marina Blue and Quantum!
wait a second, isn’t this building right next to the fpl station? uhh, i don’t think i saw that in the shiny brochure.
speaking of which…when latitude went up, was it ever revealed that 2/3’s of the southside of the building would be looking into an office building next door? one of the funnier things to see down here (although i’m sure the affected folks aren’t seeing it the same way).
jcrimes, that office building with latitude no doubt pleases much of NeoVertika, as well, due to the large number of units there whose views are blocked by it as well.
adding insult is the fact that that office building appears to be nearly empty. most lights are left on at night, but if you’re looking at it from anywhere but ground level you can see most floors are empty. (seriously, what company in their right mind would put their offices there. Unless, of course, the executive offices have glass walls looking into showers. hey, might be on to something here…..)
What use are the views from the shower that lucas mentions if there will be office workers watching you bathe? I predict in 20 years those glass walls will be real ones.
Imagine if a high-rise goes up next to the Ivy looking in at some of the units. You could be watching TV at night, look over at the IVY and see everybody showering.
That’s pretty cool.
“Honey, can you close the living room blinds… I’m getting ready to take a shower”
this blog is becoming pretty funny: lucas raves about and posts a bunch of pics of a new project and then the commentators spend the next 2 days ripping/mocking/criticizing said building. the developers’ initial joy for free publicity quickly turns to dread….
lucas the realtor is dooming projects (unintentionally, of course)
“imagine a high-rise goes up right next to Ivy looking in…”
One is called Wind and the other Mint.
Drew,
whatever government authority allowed so many condo towers to go up unchecked have done far more to doom projects than a bunch of wiseasses on some web site ever could.
Hasn’t anybody noticed that the body two-thirds of the glass is not see-through? You wouldn’t be able to see anything from the bedroom, much less from a building across the street.
Yeah, the frosted glass is a bummer. It should be a clear see-through all the way. Just topless view is not fun enough.
You can see the contours though!
so from your bed you’ll see just a sillouette of the girl sitting on your toilet inserting her diaphram?
LOL!!!! Or just the silhouette of you gf taking a dump. Oh Lucas, since you put it that way, it isn’t stupid at all!
okay, we’re getting out of hand here.
Lucas, you have a GREAT blog that provides a valuable service. we’ve had a little fun with it today and gotten carried away, but we do appreciate you and what you do enormously. 😉
OK, I was having a little fun with this topic too. All it takes is to hang a shower rod inside of the glass then problem solved. You can show off or shower in private.
It’s Miami so you can close it for your wife but open it up when your mistress stops by… LOL
Drew wrote, “whatever government authority allowed so many condo towers to go up unchecked have done far more to doom projects than a bunch of wiseasses on some web site ever could.”
What’s up with blaming local government for the oversupply of condos. We don’t have soviet style central planning here, we do have markets which allow developers to take risks.
Centrally located highrises are good. Urban sprawl is bad. I’d be much more concerned about the approval of some gated single family community near the everglades.
Lucas, maybe what you should do is create a general section of the page where people can write whatever they think about any topic, since this is what the recent posts have become.
When I started reading this blog a while ago, most of the comments were serious with lots of great information about the market, the buildingsm, etc for readers. Recently, it has become a place for people to discuss anything they feel about any topic.
Like “Probably too cynical” said, you have a great blog here and having to read 30 comments of people concerned with the glass wall in a unit they have no intention of buying and about people taking a crap is a complete waste of space of this great blog.
The idea of having an open blog is great, but unless the readers/writers or you start controlling what’s written here, this blog will become a joke like many others.
My two cents…
Hey Hugo, maybe we won’t be buying because a. the glass wall and b. the condo is overpriced. Ever thought of that?
Drew, you write, “lucas the realtor is dooming projects (unintentionally, of course)”
Fact is that Lucas get’s it right. He got it right about WCI. His expert opinion appeals to investors in real estate. His blog gets so many hits and it is one of the most talked about, and most visited real estate websites for real estate investors today. I might also add that ground breaking information is often sorted out here in a permanent fashion, instead of looking for bits and pieces of real estate information in different mediums, you have a one stop permanent record of the miami investment real estate world, hence the title, http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com
Hugo and Cynical,
Sorry Guys. Both of you are wrong. The reason why Lucas’s blog is successful is because he does not censor. I have skimmed through hundreds of blogs but none held my interest. The fact that I open the internet, get on Yahoo to see if the World is still alive and the next thing I do is get on Lucas’s blog! Yes, even before I check my e-mail. If this blog turns dry as you suggested, I’ll look elsewhere.
You said “People who are not serious in buying anything are having fun with the blog”. That is the USP of this blog. If all you find in the blog is dry shop talk by realtors and prospective clients, this blog will die in exactly two weeks. If you actually go back and read the past comments, the people who posted frivolous toilet humor posts are the same ones who posted incredibly useful facts and info, used and looked forward to by actual and potential customers. In my case, I already own two condos in Miami. I am not in the market for another one. As per you the likes of me should just lay off! Get real.
What’s wrong with a little humor once in a while? This blog has more useful information than just about any other blog or RE site out there.
Gimme a break “Lucas Gets It Right”. Lucas has a nice blog and all, and I appreciate it, but it isn’t like this is that ground breaking. The hobo living behind Marina Blue could tell you that Miami is experiencing an historic collapse in real estate – the likes of which exceeds even the Great Depression. Thank you for the blog though Lucas. Fun stuff!
Perez,
Good point and support of the ‘Eastward Ho’ movement which aims to fill in under utililized or vacant land to the east with urban infill projects before sprawling out further into the Everglades.
And good reminder also that we are a capitalist society. Although, they could have put a moratorium on any new building, I think Aventura did a few years back.
I have to agree with AJ that the first thing I do is check for more comments. I don’t find many things in life make me belly laugh from my gut anymore, but the comments on this blog do.
I read half of them across the room to my husband and we crack up. I appreciate the relevant information and dialect in this blog, but the humor is badly needed and appreciated too!
after the fun, trying again: anyone knows how much time between a sale and the appearance of such sale in the miamidade.gov records?
Still see absolutely nothing since June… surely SOMEONE bought a property in July?
I’m still renting…..and sorta looking too, but no rush. Was at a party the other night and was speaking to a realtor lady. Boy was she anxious to give me her card when I told I was renting for now and was waiting for this stuff to shake out and would eventually buy and probably would be an all cash buyer depending on interest rates (can’t deduct mortgage interest anyway). She proceeded to tell me about a “wonderful” new construction for almost twice what I just told her was about how much I wanted to spend and in an area that wasn’t really where I wanted to be. When I stated that I’d wait for a while longer since I thought prices were still on the decline, she said there are some really great deals out there now and practically all she has been selling to buyers she represents are foreclosures….ummmmm, shouldn’t that tell you that prices are going to continue to decline if foreclosures are the only thing that is selling right now???? Duh. Oh the misplaced silly optimism of what must be a jolly former hairstylist (my apologies to all the hairstylists out there for associating you with clueless realtors and potentially Kevin Thomlinson…we’d he go anyway his comments were more funny than bathroom humor). Shouldn’t there be some bold statement to notify buyers that realtors are there to get a commission from a transaction and are not there for your financial planning or really your overall best interests?
Having watched several units stay on the market for 6 months+ and not sell or are taken off the market to relist later and watching more units in those buildings come on the market….it looks like inventories are getting larger in the areas I am looking at and this 4th quarter will get interesting…………
Another big empty box brought to you by the REIC. Sports at 11.
Actually, realtors pledge a fiduciary duty to have your best interest at heart in any real estate transaction. It’s stressed a lot in that one week of real estate school required to get your license here. Too bad it doesn’t seem to be honored a lot of the time Sigh. Especially now that people are so hungry. Sad.
la la – Somehow I think realtors are only concerned if you have the cash or can qualify for the loan… Realtors disclose information to the other parties all the time that they should not……. Best to keep an arms length relationship and not use someone you personally know as a friend or who otherwise knows details about you.
so it’s settled. there is room on this blog for both intelligent, learned discourse on all topics Miami Condo, as well as the occasional wiseass snippet. (and come on, Lucas walked into this one with that bedroom shower window. That is just low-hanging fruit begging for verbal abuse.)
Renter Tom,
I recently had a similar experience. The RE people use selective hearing. For some unknown reason, the RE agent seems to think they can add $100k to your price range and it should not be questioned! There is a large difference in affordability between a $300k and $400k condo that the RE people simply disregard to your detriment. This is how people get in over their head in debt. Commission driven agents turn their noses at a $250k price range-but in reality this should be the most attractive price for most of the middle class in Miami-if any still exist. 2 bedroom condos in brickell are around $2200/month, a little bit high but in right ballpark. This corresponds to about a $250k condo, give or take a few bucks. Currently sellers want a $100k+ “premium” for “luxury” amenities which should be nearly standard!
gables – When I said a million she must have heard $1.8M….. Oh well. Fortunately I’m not stupid nor will I be talked into anything and won’t be making an “emotional buy”. I’d buy the place I’m living in for $300 psf but that is still more than renting it….. We are in for a steep drop before the end of the year. I have been watching units pile up. Looks like 2010 may be the year to buy…..
By the way, despite the frosted glass, you can still moon the neighbors if you press up against it…. LOL
gables, how much do you earn if you don’t mind my asking. At $250k I would peg you at earning $83K/year or more. Please keep in mind that this is well above the median income in Miami.
From wikipedia:
The median income for a household in the city was $23,483, and the median income for a family was $27,225. Males had a median income of $24,090 versus $20,115 for females. The per capita income for the city was $15,128. About 23.5% of families and 28.5% of the population were below the poverty line, including 38.2% of those under age 18 and 29.3% of those age 65 or over.
Perhaps low, but lets assume a young professional who would be moving into these units has a median income of $50K. That makes $250K too much. Should be more like $150K.
Also, look at foreclosure stats (from the Miami-Dade County Clerk):
2002: 14,567 (RECESSION)
2003: 11,605
2004: 9,606
2005: 7,829 (RE INSANITY PEAK)
2006: 9,814
2007: 26,391 (HUGE JUMP)
2008(Projected): 50,789 (EVEN BIGGER JUMP)
I was hoping this would end by July 09, but with the Depression and the Alt A implosion just beginning, I will most likely renew my lease another year. July 2010/2011 might be a good time (fingers crossed).
interested
if those income stats are right…then i’m way on the right side of the curve…yet i still feel poor (okay, maybe not poor, but not nearly as wealthy as i’d like to be)
someone with a stat background (lucas, if you can recall econ 173, which i presume you took), what’s it called when the normal distribution is peaked and has fat tails? i presume this would apply to miami incomes (notwithstanding the fact that there is a lot of fake money trolling around this city).
it’s going to take at least two more years to work all the crap from the system. all you have to do is open up the DBR and look at the new filed foreclosure listings. currently, it takes about nine months to work these cases through the system, which means these units won’t be coming online for at least 10 to 11 months from now. the pace of foreclosures has not slowed down to pre-boom levels.
I saw the Ivy. It’s ok but the sales guy was talking about 2/2 in the $400’s which I think was way out of line. Way overpriced for thsi project.
I’ll pass. should be more like $180k – $250k @ most for a 2/2.
interested,
your estimate of $83k corresponding to a $250k condo are roughly correct (not my income though). while $80k is way above median, apply a little common sense to this scenario. brickell and newly developed areas will target college educated people, and expect a range of income of $50k to $80k to cover most of those people. A typical 2b buyer will probably be a couple with a combined income of anywhere from $80k to $125k. This places the price range for 2b condo in “luxury” condos at $250k to $350k considering the college educated working class in miami. foreign buyers and others may skew the numbers, but the miami buyer market is in this range. bargains at $200k will be had, but this level will probably form a soft floor on prices, since at that price range single buyers will upgrade from 1b to 2b. the next year will be volatile with the foreclosures wreaking havoc, but i imagine prices will stabilize into the range above over the next couple of years. if large changes in taxes and HOA fees (ie insurance) occur, throw it all out the window!
Lucas, do you have unit prices and info for the most recent north river projects (ivy, met 1, wind, etc)? are they moving on the secondary market or from developers?
I went to Wind 2 weeks ago and saw a few units. The largest 2 bedroom units were the 02/03 line. The developer was offering units in these 25-30 floor range for ~380-395k this was a discount from the stated 450k-464k for the same units. The Wind had extremely nice amenities compared to several buildings i have seen personally (Plaza, Quantum, Brickell on the River, 1800 Club, Blue). I would say they had the nicest. As for the units, they are sort of awkwardly shaped at 45 degrees in the living rooms to maximize views. I was interested in the building but have some apprehension buying a unit that *could* be blocked by Cima and/or living with the construction noise for 2-3 years. I heard from the Wind developer that Ivy, Mint, and Cima would all be more expensive than Wind, so that should give you some idea of the pricing.
gables, you’re preaching tho the choir(and I totally agree) in any other scenario, but I am factoring in 1. the recession hurting jobs in the US and Europe (longer than anyone is anticipating) 2. the overcorrection that always occurs with RE crashes 3. Overbuilding (there aren’t 35,000-45,000 college educated buyers to absorb this supply quickly) 4. Higher interest rates(7% by next year and may be higher) 5. rent/buy ratio even at the 200-250K level is skewed by the HOA which you don’t pay if you are renting (this either has to come down – say goodbye to concierge, valet, etc OR the buy price must be reduced). 6. Stronger dollar vs. the euro and the pound sterling. 7. Prices being depressed due to poor maintenance secondary to HOA bankruptcy/partial payment (want to move into a building with only 40% occupied units? hope you’re good with a 12 gauge and the quickdraw). What do you think?
Watsup with 2010? I hear the magic number so many times here as well as elsewhere. Looks like the people have spoken. 2010 it is (for the turn around I mean).
It is inconcievable, how the condo buildings along the undesirable Miami Drainage Canal (aka Miami River) overlooking I 95 ramps and a ugly roof tops have the balls to ask for 400K + for a 2/2. Looks like the delusion is more pervasive than I thought.
Interested, we are obviously on the same page just slighlty different view on the numbers. To a great degree i am a bear on RE in south florida, but there will be floors which will not be significantly breached in the new condo buildings. Assuming you are looking at a 1. a newer building 2. in an area of similar condo construction (not an isolated building) 3. building not too expensive with HOA fees (Jade and Emerald come to mind), the floor for these units will probably stop near $250k for a 2b.
The problem for professionals living in Miami is there are no neighborhoods which one can buy a house and live safely without overpaying (Coral Gables, Coconut Grove) or living in the Everglades. Very few options exist near downtown which satisfy these criteria. Few new homes have been constructed near the US1 and brickell corridor. The new condos become a home of last resort, even for people who desire a house, because they are some of the few locations which provide perceived neighborhood safety. As the prices drop to $250k, these units will attract people from the new outskirts neighborhoods even as those home prices drop well below the $250k mark. At the end of the day, location near brickell or biscayne will trump purchases in the middle of the swamps. the upper middle class in miami actually have few alternatives in Miami-either new condos, new swamp construction, or cheap and unsafe housing. unfortunately not a whole lot of stock in between.
I have seen few listings for Plaza units, especially 2b. I am interested in the building. I assume the developer is controlling the sales in the building. anybody know the price range they are actively shopping the units for? i sent an email to them a while ago, but never heard back. pretty poor sales and marketing if they are struggling with closings…
I went to the plaza on monday to look at 2/2 units. They had midfloor units with partial bay views (obstructed) or west facing (brickell) for around 390k.
Accidental Residents:
There is an interesting side effect of the building boom, which no one else seems to be talking. Even though there is an universally agreed number of 22000 condos that will eventually come on line by 2009 in the Miami greater downtown area, all of them are not booked by investors. By a very very conservative estimates, 30% were booked by end users.
There is something else happening with the remaining 70% investors. Some of them are becoming accidental residents (I coined it from the popular phrase Accidental Tourist. Not sure how relevant it is).
For example, in 1800, I know of 3 different flat owners from Oklahoma City, Boston and Knoxville , who initially bought for a resale. These guys had no clue about Miami, no emotional attachment to it and one of them never even stepped foot in Miami until it was time to take pocession of the flat.
What is amazing about these 3 cases that I know is that, due to market conditions or what ever be the reason, 2 of these 3 have decided to keep the flat for themselves to enjoy it as a second home for the rest of their lives and one of them is actually relocating to Miami with his family as he loves the city and more importantly his flat.
I call them all accidental Residents as they never had intentions to live here in the first place. It is a nice side effect to this housing crisis. It is actually boosting Miami’s population at a time when migration to Florida is down to a trickle. And these are all well to do people with means, who will contribute a lot to the local economy. That is a good thing. There maybe hundreds of such cases.
So between the end users and the accidental residents, only 50% of the new flats should be actually for final sale in the open market which is not such a bad number after all.
Even out of those 50% inestors, the robust rental market is keeping them from dumping their flats in a fire sale.
That is also a reason why the MLS is not flooded with for sale’s as much as one would like to imagine.
AJ – Those are cases of people owning lemons and making lemonade out of the situation. Good for them. Hope they bought just one! LOL
gables– I would do a lot of homework before deciding on Plaza. I rent their now and though I do like the room and the location, I would think long and hard before buying there.
the pros: location is great. pool deck is nice when not crowded.
the cons: the garage is the classic case of “designed by an artist and not an engineer.” very sharp turn required to get into garage entrance (made much worse when there are other cars trying to get in / out.) you’ll have to open your car door and lean out to open the gate with your fob, while praying you don’t hit the corner of the garage. inside garage is very narrow and every blind curve will have a jackass flying at you in their car with their lights off. some real maintenance issues (all elevators were off for a while this past weekend, pipes have burst, etc.)
also, best to aalways pproach garage entrance from Brickell Bay drive (the back way) as the Brickell Avenue access alley is continually blocked by retards who don’t seem to realize the inconvenience they cause by their parking their car in a way that blocks the only access through the alley while they wait with their doors open for the valet to arrive. (why they didn’t just have the garage entrance enter/ empty directly onto Brickell Bay drive I just can’t figure out. would have been a hell of a lot more convenient.)
waiting on the elevators will be great practice in patience. I can’t crack the code just yet, but there is some program where all elevators wait on high floors and only one will go down if you push the call buttom frm the ground floor. and on it’s way down it will stop at half the floors, the other elevator cars will remain where they are. by the time it comes a crowd will have gathered and you’ll stop at half the garage floors on the way up to pick up anyone coming in from the garage. that one moving elevator car will carry a heavy load–
and a lot of the pavers out front are already cracked, chipped, and broken. some of them embarassingly so. (btw, what the heck is that little building between the tower and the next-door office building supposed to be?)
oh, and if you want to watch your guests shower, you’ll need to put a stool in the bathroom.
Interesting… not sure how this gets done in this market… I heard that they were looking for mezzanine financing
Condo Vultures® – Market Intelligence Report
Speculative Condo Project Begins Construction In Miami-Dade County
As the last three residential construction cranes move closer to being disassembled in the oversupplied Downtown Miami condo market, four additional cranes – against steep odds – have suddenly sprung up on a new speculative oceanfront condominium project proposed in the barrier island city of Bal Harbour in northeast Miami-Dade County.
The newly installed construction cranes have been erected to facilitate the building of the proposed St. Regis Bal Harbour Resort & Residences condominium and hotel on an 8.9-acre site where the Sheraton Bal Harbour Hotel once stood.
The planned three-tower St. Regis complex is proposed to have 268 condominium units, 36 condo-hotel units, and 24 fractional units for sale to the public plus 182 hotel rooms and a presidential suite that will be owned by the developer, 9701 Collins Avenue LLC.
Prices start at more than $1,000 per square foot. An unknown number of units are under contract.
The development schedule calls for topping off the trio of 27-story glass towers in autumn 2009, and delivery in late 2010.
“The development team appears to be so confident that this project – modeled after the ultra-luxury and pricey Apogee condominium in South Beach – will be a success that they are building on speculation that the units can be sold once delivered,” said Peter Zalewski, a principal with the Bal Harbour, Fla.-based consultancy Condo Vultures® LLC. “This goes to show how difficult it is right now to obtain financing for a new South Florida condominium project. When a development team with the background, experience, and war chest of 9701 Collins Avenue LLC opts to self finance a project of this magnitude, you have to conclude that construction financing is all but nonexistent today.”
The development entity – 9701 Collins Avenue LLC – building the St. Regis Bal Harbour is a partnership between Starwood Resorts & Hotels Worldwide Inc. – which besides St. Regis also owns the brands Westin, W Hotels, Sheraton, Le Meridien and Four Points – and the nation’s largest condominium developer The Related Group .
The project received a financial boost from Starwood Vacation Ownership Inc., which provided a $30 million loan to 9701 Collins Avenue LLC, according to public records.
The loan is secured by the waterfront land that had been long owned by the Sheraton Bal Harbour Joint Venture before the deed was transferred to 9701 Collins Avenue LLC in July 2007. Miami-Dade County’s Property Appraiser assessed the value of the land at $125.6 million, or $325 per square foot for the dirt, in 2007.
“Aside from the trophy location and international name brand recognition, the St. Regis Bal Harbour stands to benefit from what a growing number of industry professionals see as a leveling off – and in some cases strengthening – of prices in the condo market on the barrier island of Miami-Dade County,” Zalewski said. “The barrier island, which didn’t have the same extent of condo building as Miami’s mainland, is a popular destination for locals and second-home buyers alike who prefer the combination of sand, water, restaurants, and nightlife.
“Second-home buyers purchasing today tend to opt for the barrier island even though the bigger discounts are more prevalent on the mainland of Miami.”
Mainland Miami’s biggest challenge has been absorbing all of the 22,737 new condo units – 88 percent of which have already been delivered – that are completed or under construction in the Greater Downtown Miami area, which is comprised of the neighborhoods of Brickell Avenue, Downtown, and the Biscayne Boulevard Corridor, according to the Condo Vultures® Official Condo Buyers Guide To Miami™ .
On the barrier island, the amount of new condo construction is estimated to be less than half of the Greater Downtown Miami total.
Average discounts being tracked in the Vultures Database™ highlight the price differences by submarket.
On the barrier island from Miami Beach north to Surfside, Bal Harbour, and Sunny Isles Beach, the average price drop per condo unit in the Vultures Database™ is -25 percent. Average prices stand at $460 per square foot today compared to a historical high asking price of $618 per square foot.
In Bal Harbour, where the St. Regis is going up, the average price drop is -22 percent with an asking price today of $714 per square foot compared to the historical high average of $914 per square foot.
On the mainland in Greater Downtown Miami, the average price drop per condo unit in the Vultures Database™ is -32 percent. Prices are currently $314 per square foot compared to a historical high asking price of $463 per square foot.
The Vultures Database™ is comprised of nearly 5,000 condos, townhouses, and single-family houses east of Interstate 95 in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties that have been reduced in price by at least -10 percent and/or $100,000.
Excellent story. keep the supply coming boys…. we need more luxury condos. woo hoo
Probably too cynical,
thanks for the info. that is the type of talk i expect from this blog. the other chitchat is great and fun, but we really need local residents of the buildings to provide detailed input on the ins and outs of the buildings-info a RE or seller will not provide (sorry Lucas you seem to be the exception!)
there are plenty of buyers out there like myself, but we want to be educated buyers, and will not pull the trigger until we can assess a building thoroughly. providing HOA minutes the day before closing does not cut it-i want to know the financial status of a building before i invest time in looking at the units. car salesmen hate me, and i expect the same feeling from RE agents. but its my $300k at stake and i spend carefully! your type of info is very valuable to understanding the risk/reward of a particular building.
For those of you in Brickell area, what is the casual social scene like? not clubs and such, but passive and relaxing activities such as coffee shops and bookstores? any low key activities to enjoy a sunny friday afternoon away from work? The Grove and Gables are relaxing, what about Brickell?
“passive and relaxing activities such as coffee shops and bookstores,” you ask?
There are starbucks in both Mary Brickell Village and the JW Marriott. other than that you are pretty much SOL. Segafredo could technically count, if you like being treated condescendingly by waitstaff with 1/5 your salary (and 1/10 your education) looking at you like they are urinating on you from a great height. (“uhm, could you wipe that smirk off your face and bring me some more ketchup?”) Bookstores? LOL! they don’t exist. (an hour sitting at Blue Martini should pretty much explain why.) No diners, no theatres, no parks, nothing. walking circles around Brickell Key is enjoyable, and there is the Rickenbacher Causeway for biking, walking, running, beach, etc. There is a nice nature trail a few hundred yards up South Miami Avenue towards Coconut Grove. but outside of Mary Brickell V’s limited offerings, very little has been built or planned to service the residents of the condo towers. One Publix supermarket. an Irish Pub looks like it might soon be opening in One Broadway. (next to the AWESOME Pieduck’s Pizza.) There is Brickell Tennis Club, which looks fun (if I could afford it.) if you like being accosted by bums a walk up 8th street should be enjoyable.
Reality Check
No matter what is built, how fancy, if its built by a well know architect or if you have an strategic alliance with a celebrity, the negative real estate market will affect every project in Miami. First, you all know that Miami is the second worst real estate market in the entire U.S. – second only to Las Vegas. Second, the financial industry is heading for a crash landing due mainly to the excess issuing of ARM´s. Third, the unemployment rate has increased rose to 5.7 percent in august. Fourth, International markets like England, Spain, Italy, Japan are in worst shape than the U.S. Fifth, the international conflicts around the world such as South Ossetia will ultimately affect the market in an indirect way, how? By strengthening uncertainty and instability on every prospective buyer in the U.S.
OK. Today in THE WALL STREET JOURNAL an article – Bank Stocks Drop Amid Worries Over Home Prices – there is a quote in the article by writer David Enrich – “Corona, considered one of the most desirable places to live in Riverside County, east of Los Angeles, has begun working through a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, … A four bedroom, 3,213 square foot home at 1065 Trailview Lane was sold in June for $ 479,900 after fetching $685,000 in October 2005.” Let analyze this property, the sq ft is going for 149 per sq ft., there is no glut of properties in that particular area – like in Miami, and the school systems is much better than Miami. Not to mention that you also have a better change to get a better return on your property than any property in Miami, when the time comes when you have to move.
Feedback…(I needssss)
Taking into consideration everything that is happening in the real estate market I am coming with a general rule towards purchasing property in Miami.
If it’s a one bedroom apartment the value should be 100K and a negotiation range from 101K to 150K
If it’s a two bedroom apartment the value should be 200K and a negotiation range from 201K to 200K
If it´s a three bedroom apartment the value should be 300K and a negotiation range from 301K to 350K
If it´s a studio there is no way it should cost more than 100K – unless of course there is breakfast in bed everyday, and a complementary massage at 5 pm every day to reduce the stress that you will get by being by the swimming pool all day.
I think that 1800 has the best in and out access to the garage. The entrance and exit is on a very wide and divided 18th street. There are 3 separate entrance -exit gates. It is a pleasure. And Once you are in, the ramps are very wide, less steep, less curvy and the slots are wide and unobstructed for the most part. The garage is very airy, well ventilated with good safety features. Extremely well designed. I have been to many new buildings and if you consider all the aspects of a what a good garage should be, the 1800 garage will definitely be in the top ten if not top five.
Gables,
Casual scene in Brickell? You have a better chance of finding it in Overtown. I am not kidding. Brickell is the most dryest place I have seen for a casual life. I have been to Brickell extensively (my office is located in the colonial bank building). I will give it a big zero. The locals crow a lot about the wonder that is Mary Brickell Village. Just a few restaurants and a couple of high priced lounges does not maketh a nightlife rennaissance. In fact Brickell denizens do not realize how boxed in they are. Let me tell you why. I have looked at opening a branch of my Lounge/club in Brickell. The Mary Brickell village does not have any more space and it is prohibitively expensive to lease any new space. Rest of Brickell does not have any areas that can be developed geared towards socializing. They are just stuck with Blue Martini and Rosa Mexicana. Poor things.
The next location I searched is the downtown area and there is nothing promising there either.
Finally the only 2 places I have identified for a flourishing nightlife and socializing scene is 1. The Biscayne blvd Corridor from 15th st to 30 th st and 2. Midtown
These 2 areas have the space, the infrastructure, the demographics and most important, affordability. This is where I am concentrating my search. If I can sign a 10 year lease for a space, it can only be here. Not just me, any new business has to come here. Trust me on that as I have actually researched the whole subject. (I challenge any realtor, if they can find me a decent priced lease in Brickell for a lounge/club, show me. I’ll take it. There are none unless you have a million dollars to burn).
By the way, take a little walk along Biscayne from 15th street to 30th street. You will be pleasantly surprised by the abundance of casual life. From inexpensive restaurants and cafeterias to gourmet signature restaurants, you can find them all here. The Daily, Latin Cafe 2000, Starbucks, That fab French bakery near the 25th st whose name I forgot and quite a few others delightful places.
You mentioned that your budget is 300K, which might be enough for a 2/2 in Q or 18, for Non water view units ( Even the non waterview units in these buildings have better views than many buildings in Brickell). Why don’t you get into the Pace park area, which has the highest potential among the 4 greater downtown areas? Brickell is what you see now is what you will get 10 years from now. It has reached a saturation point and no further surprises are in store. If you buy there for some dubious short term benefit, you will watch with envy, the stratospheric development that is about to come to 1. Pace Park/OMNI 2. Midtown and 3. Downtown. Be smart and break away from the pack.
Hi renter Tom,
Yes they are all single unit owners. I am happy that they are making lemonade out of lemons. The loss of Bostons, Lexingtons, Clevelands etc. is Miami’s gain. Those guys are now spending their vacations and their monies in Miami instead of St. Barts or Maui. And when they retire, they most likely will settle down in Miami. No complaints there either.
Great 3 Lemonade fools out of 300-500 or so units. Yep they sure are sucking up that inventory.
Only reaosn they prob did stay was cause they were to stuborn to walk away from their deposit.
Once Again, NYET. I do not know about other new buildings in Miami but I can authoritatively say one thing about the Q and 18. Anyone who wants to sell in these 2 buildings can do so with their eyes closed as long it is at the precon prices. No one, I repeat no one lost their deposits here. Only those who tagged a big profit to their asking price are languishing in the MLS. If these 3 “lemons” want to walk away, they can do so without losing a single red cent of their deposit.
AJ, doubtful….
Reality Check,we need you commenting more often.
Mark,
It is possible that a couple of people might have resorted to a fire sale because they wanted to get out no matter what. They might have intentionally sold below the price for what they have bought. It is exception but not the rule.
Those who want to live in Brickell have a flood of choices. So does those who want to live in Downtown or Midtown.
Contrary to that, those who want to live in Pace Park have only the following choices:
1. Opera Tower – super dud
2. Paramount Bay – super expensive
and then
3. Q &
4. 1800
So the choices are pretty much down to 2 buildings, if you want to live in Pace Park. That gives them a slight edge by catering to a very niche crowd. If you want the convenience and the views of Park, Bay and the Arts district, you will not settle for any other location. The owners who do not want to make a profit and priced the units at pre-con levels have managed to get out pretty much intact.
AJ,
The Brickell condos aren’t 1 lump.
Proximity to Pace Park is a niche favoring 1800 and Q, but others could just as well say proximity to Mary Brickell is a niche that favors a couple Brickell Condos.
The Biscayne Wall condos will all have their own special niche when/if the Art Museum and Museum Park get developed.
Brickell is a pretty large area but if you chopped it down into sections as small as Pace Park, each section will be unique with it’s pros and cons.
Probably too cynical i thought your comments were very useful.
Anyone knows anyone who lives in any building in Bal Harbour? I’d really like to hear comments.
I live in the UK and from my perspective:
a) if I think the dollar will now strengthen, then that makes me much more likely to buy in Florida now. Some people posted a strong dollar as if it would kill demand by foreigners. Yeah, it might, AFTER the dollar gets strong. As long as it is in the process of strengthening, it makes the investment MORE compelling, as i would have an assets that appreciates when measured in pounds or euros, even if the dollar price is the same.
B) One point about LA versus Miami: I was in LA only once, didnt quite like it but again it was a very brief visit, i am sure the surrounding areas are a lot better. But here’s a point you people forget: NO STATE TAXES in Florida and very high taxes in California. Anyone with a high income ought to take this into consideration. For high earners this at least offsets some disadvantages such as higher property taxes (if indeed property taxes are higher in Florida than in the rest of the country, i have no clue, but since some of you were complaining about them, i thought they must be higher than the rest of america. But you have to consider that against a backdrop of lower state income taxes. Lower as in “ZERO”. I lived in NY temporarily for a few years before relocating to London. In NYC you pay State AND City income taxes on top of the federal income taxes. Florida doesnt have that source of revenues. How’s the state suppose to pay for services? Property taxes are one way. So yes if you make $50k/year then you’d be exempt of those taxes in other states, but then again you shouldn’t be even thinking about a ‘luxury condo’. It’s just not for you. I wish I had a yacht. It’s not for me, so i won’t be in a blog saying prices should go down because keeping a crew is expensive.
Personally i quite liked Bal Harbour for a vacation home. I won’t be working in Miami so i don’t care if it’s far from downtown. I am though very aware that i could be buying into a bankrupt building. So if anyone knows of any stories about the buildings, please post! I read some stuff about One Bal Harbour, all negative, but once you go there and see it, you fall in love. It’s beyond my price range. Next door is Harbour House, which is a lot cheaper and not too bad. I don’t believe in free lunches, so if it’s cheap, it’s because it’s loaded with risks. So pleeeeease post anything you know about the condition of the building, potential problems, HOA issues, etc etc etc…
leaner,
I couldn’t disagree with you more. If you want to profit from the depreciation of the pound sterling then you can just short the pound and buy other currencies. It is a widely accepted fact that prices will decline at least another 25%. On NPR yesterday they had a Realtor who said that there are 50,000 units for sale in Miami-Dade. 50,000!!!! You go ahead and buy your nice condo. I’ll wait and easily buy on my $50,000/year income.
I think it’s more like 25,000 units (that’s condo only maybe they included single family too and it still wouldn’t be that high, more like 40,000) in Miami-dade.
It’s still a lot though, don’t get me wrong. But apples should be compared to apples.
leaner,
make sure you think through the tax issue. i too thought living in florida with no income tax was a great benefit. problem is that owning a home in florida creates a larger tax burden than other states with income and property tax. we have a high property tax, and couple that with inflated property prices (at least until recently) and you typically pay more in taxes in florida than other states. and this occurs whether you live here year round or not! the high taxes will still be incurred during economic downturn when your income may drop or disappear-not a pleasant thought considering the downturn we are entering. florida is not a good economical choice for owning a second home from this point of view. if you have money to burn, great. but if you carefully saved and invested through the years to buy that 2nd home, the taxes could eat away much of your efforts.
leaner – Again, the currency play is a separate issue from the purchase of real estate, especially when the real estate is likely to decline in price further. The smart money would wait to buy unless there is some very important reason to buy now….the currency play is not one of them. If you’re buying clothing or some other immediate need it makes sense to buy now and take advantage of the dollar weakness but for real estate it doesn’t mke sense.
i think u missed the point. All other things eaqual, a perception that the dollar is going to go up would increase the propensity of foreign buyers to buy.
That assumes someone who’s already interested in buying. The dollar would be a little tailwind.
No one suggested buy ultra-illiquid assets to express a view on a currency. You made that up yourself.
I happen to work in the financial markets.
I like Miami. i want a home there. GIVEN THAT, if i think the dollar is going up, it HELPS on my decision. It’s that simple.
If i expect prices to drop a lot more or not, it’s a different issue altogether.
I do think they will go lower actually.
But against that i have to weigh the fact that while i wait, i dont have use of it. Staying in hotels will always be cheaper. Always. But doesnt fit what i want, which is a place i can invite friends over, go in and out anytime, stay as long as i want, etc.
If all in life had to be decided by the numbers, no one would buy anything. You wouldn’t even have a car, really.
So yes, i get the point, there is oversupply, financing is tough, prices will go lower. I thought all that before ever logging on to this blog for the first time.
I am trying to dig other types of information that’s not on the front page of every paper, but it has been tough here, very few real info and a lot of people repeating the same stuff over and over again.
Hope real information can be shared soon. Occasionally someone posts something.
gables and renter tom have better points, my other reply was meant to be to ‘interested’.
The point about property taxes is fair. IA big turn-off for someone who’s not looking to relocate but to own as a second home. It’s a big cost.
Maintenance fees are another problem.
I was close to making an offer for a unit about a month ago. i was put off by these two details!
marcio
marcio/leaner,
if you buy something at the proper price (rental income could cover carrying costs – taxes and insurance/condo fees), then find the right bldg and do it. yes, prices will probably come further down. i think it always depends on what your main purpose is. if you want a place that you will keep for over 10 years, then timing into it will be tough. that’s why you need to really need to buy it at the right price. buyers are in the driver’s seat so there’s no reason to pay up/make concessions.
i’m also in the financial markets and as you probably know, timing perfectly is a very difficult proposition. timing well is a bit easier based on conditions. best of luck..
leaner,
Maintenance fees aren’t just a small part of the decision to buy, they are a big part. Also, if you want to be in Miami while you wait out the crash, you can also consider this novel concept- renting. Finally, if you’re unhappy with our redundant dialog then please make a suggestion on what you’d like to hear. How about this- it isan excelent time to buy anything under 500/sq foot is an amazing deal. Also I heard the NPR interview- the number is 50,000.
to repeat a question, online records for property sales are still showing nothing past June, i was once told the delay was a couple weeks but looks like more than 2 months, is that the norm, or sales volumes dried up so much there isn’t anything to record?
One comment when i went to the area to visit about one month ago the site of the new st Regis was not just a couple of empty cranes rusting off there was feverish activity, trucks in and out, loads of workers about etc.
Seems like related really has the means to carry this out, or it would be a crazy gamble.
Foreign ‘investors’ would be majorly discouraged by taxes / fees, but there are many retirees in the UK who would love to move to florida permanently, especially because anything on this earth looks cheap compared to UK home prices.
Alan Greenspan had a good point, opening up to skilled foreign immigrants would be a huge help to clear out inventories.
Quite irrealistic at the moment though, so the outlook still pretty bleak.
Lastly, as for rental incomes to cover all costs including mortgages this is not normal. It may have happened for a while, but it’s an aberration.
It makes no economic sense that you could gain ownership of a property while getting paid over the years. Competition would quickly make sure this can’t be a stable state.
In most if not all countries cost of owning is higher than cost of renting. This is the way it’s supposed to be.
Given appreciation “trends” of the last few years, owners put up with bigger and bigger negative costs, pushing the balance way too far into irrationality, but the proper equilibrium is for some negative cost rather than a free lunch
If you could sustainably get paid to buy assets everyone in the world would accumulate billions of square feet and no one would rent. So
leaner,
your last statements show that you have very poor knowledge of real estate. It should be cheaper to own something than to rent it. It has always been this way. It wasn’t until the last easy money fiasco that this reversed.
Let me pose a simple question: If it is more expensive to own a home than to rent then why would I ever buy? Why would I take on all the added responsibilities of buying? Why don’t I just rent for the rest of my life, never worrying about maintenance fees, taxes, selling if I’d like to move? Why don’t I invest the millions I’d save in an asset that actually appreciates faster than the rate of inflation?
Also, what is so hard to understand about the housing sales not being updated yet? The Miami-Dade website is offline much of the time and slow. So to answer your question, yes at least a single property was sold last month (the current rate is in the low 100s) but it is not available on the site yet.
leaner said: “Seems like Related really has the means to carry this out, or it would be a crazy gamble.”
In 2005, developers used the theory: “One building is too many and 1000 buildings aren’t enough.”
Having “means” opens the door for potential acts of madness! The jury is still out as to whether a single project will be “the straw” that breaks Related’s back!
On another note, if you have an interest in Broward projects: CORNERSTONE handed its lender the keys to its “Hollywood Station – Lofts” development (which was in closings) the other day in what they described as a “voluntary foreclosure”. I am sure the lender is just thrilled!
Leaner,
I might be one of the few on this site who will agree with you 100%.
The reason why many people in this blog may still be renters and not home owners is the attitude towards life. You summed it up perfectly. You want your OWN place. You do not like hotels or someone elses homes. You like stability of your own home. In other words you are house proud. It takes a certain kind of individual to aquire properties and another kind to aquire shoes. I have been saying that on this blog for a while. But the majority do not subscribe to my view. I think only non-Americans can empathise with these views.
When you said that you are in an advanced stage of buying. I figure that you are about to make that purchase irrespective of the dollars fortunes. But the news of dollar strengthening makes your resolve to buy that much more, I fully understand.
I have also said this over and over again. You dont have to wait for a bottom to buy. And who knows when that is going to be. It is only after the fact, when you see in the rear view mirror, you realized that the bottom has come and gone and you missed it. The buyers have the upper hand. So identify the props now and offer what you think may be the bottom pricing in a year from now. That is the way to go. Many people in this blog are not realizing that just like them, 10,000 other people have clammed up since the past 2 years and refusing to even touch the water with their finger to see the comfort levels, let alone take a dive. With the first sign of good news or turn around, everyone will want to jump in the market at the same time. Lemming mentality. Smart people will never want to be caught in a trend as they know that they will get crushed. A smart person always bucks the trend.
And finally, When I made my purchase this year, I have factored in the expected slide and made my offers. One sellers took the bait and the rest is history. Since then the prices in the building I bought have not come down nowhere close to the price I paid. I don’t expect it to either in the next 1 to 1.5 years which is when the turnaround is expected. If the prices ever fall to below what I have paid, I will publicly shame myself in this blog for talking bullshit all these months. But I know it is not going to happen. By Christmas, we will know the trend.
Another reason I have bought now and not later is because of the fact that I can pick and choose now instead of competing with scores of others in future. I am also extremely glad I bought cause two weeks after my loan has been finalized and sanctioned, No-Doc loans were banned completely by almost all banks. Stated income is the only way I could have got a loan. If I listened to the wise counsel on this blog, I would have been without my dream flat now.
Coming to Bal Harbour, If you are willing to consider Sunny Isles, which is a stones throw away from BH, you can have thousands of newly constructed flats going abegging. Ask Renter Tom, he will tell you. He is an expert on Sunny Isles.
AJ said: “If the prices ever fall to below what I have paid, I will publicly shame myself in this blog for talking bullshit all these months.”
No risk in that statement. By that time, you will have preached your way off anybody’s “invite list”.
1. You bought a condo.
2. You are happy with it.
3. You don’t care about the market.
Good for you!
Not every one here is in the same boat so there is a certain “fingernails across the chalkboard effect” to the endless reminders.
@Un-Related
Are you familiar with any other Broward projects besides Hollywood Station? I’m looking at Ocean Marine Yacht Club and Duo in Hallandale.
Thoughts on those?
Lucas,
changing the topic. it will be great to have some articles on those blgs wchich closing began a year ago. For instance a topic like this “Building A a year after”, so those willing to buy may have an idea how the new blds are doing.
good luck, gustavo
No doc loan huh? Why would you take the higher interest rate of a no doc loan? Why don’t you provide your taxes to shave 0.5% of your rate? This is why 99% of no doc loans are defaulting. Anyone who uses them is bad with money. Even people with irregular pay can provide some form of earning evidence. Anyone who makes enough money(albeit irregularly) to afford a high end condo is smart enough to do the extra work, get the documentation and save thousands on interest….
AJ, if you didn’t put money down, just walk away, no sweat of your back. You don’t lose a thing. Actually, if FRE owns your loan, you can live in the condo for 300 days FOR FREE! You’ll be eligible for an FHA loan in 3-4 years, in some cases 2 years. Win win for you AJ. If that is your plan you are smarter than most.
Was out for a couple of hours. A few comments.
I have never in my life owned an apartment. I have always rented. I am happy to not have bought at the peak, but over the last 20 years it was a big mistake to never have owned. I am not proud of it. I never thought investing in real estate is a great thing. But owning for personal use, be it as a primary or vacation home makes sense to me and that’s coming from a renter, so i can say i am not biased.
Reason i never bought? Because professionally moved too often, even now in London i know I won’t be staying much longer so the convenience of renting is a major plus.
To clarify my point about cost of owning vs renting, there is a lot of confusion there. If you factor in costs for every convenience / inconvenience plus expectations of appreciation / depreciation the equilibrium level would be a tie, of course. The thing is it is completely unreasonable to expect you can borrow 100% of the cost of an investment and get paid to own it beyond risk-adjusted returns.
One risk that didnt seem to exist before was a nominal depreciation which now is obvious to everybody so the equation had to be adjusted. But a renter who is waiting for a point where the cost of mortgage+taxes+fees would be lower than the rental is dreaming. It will never happen outside of punctual opportunities like snapping up something really cheap at a foreclosure auction.
Such opportunities may abound in the next few months, but they are not normal, long term equilibrium situations.
Renting is not just convenience.
Markets go up a lot? A renter will have to pay a lot more or be forced thru the major hassle of moving out to a lower quality place. Renters are short that option, just like they are long the option on a market crash. Owners have the opposite both ways. Interested seems to see the option he is long and is blind to the one he is short.
As for me, the decision to buy or not is not an investment one. I live for investments, do it all day, and if i feel like gambling it wont be an a condo.
So what i am looking for in this blog is info on what developers are sound or wobbly, what buildings are good or what problems are apparent to people who live in them, which ones are selling well – not because I care too much on the investment side but because i dont want to buy into a building with no one else in it to share the costs. Being far away i can’t go check for myself.
Also been a good forum to learn about the full costs of owning, given i haven’t owned anything in Miami (or anywhere else) before.
leaner,
just buy into any building that has your level of luxury and voila equilibrium will take place. You are certain that the bottom will last a few months, so then it’s unlikely that many low class individuals will be able to snap up properties and depreciate (ruin) your building. What I’m saying is, just buy into a fancy building because there is no way prices can drop to the point that people will buy them outright (cash only) and turn them into rentals and earn the HOA plus maintenance plus taxes plus 7% on their investment by renting a property out at the prevailing rate. No one in their right mind would think that could happen. If it did, the opportunity wouldn’t last years and years, it would surely only last months. What was I thinking! I’m “long” housing now.
AJ, if you don’t mind me asking, where/what did you recently buy? Congrats on your purchase.
Isnt it possible that Relateds recent bulk sale of 121 units at 50 Biscayne for all practical matters has created the floor price per sq ft in the Brickell-Biscayne corridor at an average of 250 dollars per sq foot. Bearing in mind that the mix of these 121 apts probably had low floor- west views along with high floors direct east bay view. So the range per sq ft depends on the floor height and the view. The premium views should command higher of course. Im guessing 200 per sq foot for lower floors terrible view and 400 per sq foot higher floors with direct east views -cant ever be obstructed-water views. Just my opinion.
Two 2/2 units on the 400 block of Alton in Miami Beach just sold for 40% off their previous purchase prices. Losses of almost half a million. I’ve seen one older 1960’s 2/2 unit near Lincoln Rd. where the owner took a $161,000 loss. Anybody who touches Ivy will get a rash.
Leaner,
What was your original question about living in Bal Harbor? I own a condo in BH. If you’re wondering why the Harbor House is so much cheaper than One Bal Harbor, it is because it’s a gut job condo conversion, not a ground up new development.
Living in BH is wonderful. We’ve got a couple of excellent restaurants at the ‘mall’, a bunch on Harding in Surfside, and a bunch in Bay Harbor Islands. The area is wonderfully safe, the people are mainly older, well-to-do Jewish/ European/South American and some North American folks.
The shopping is obviously some of the best in the state with Shops of Bal Harbor, but we’re also a stone’s throw from the outlet shops on 163rd (Target, Old Navy, TJ Maxx, Marshalls etc) and of course Publix on 93rd is an exceptional grocery.
Re the St Regis project going up in Bal Harbor: Hugo P, thanks for posting that interesting article. The developers are building on spec because they know (or they’re taking a calculated risk) that by the time they have a product to deliver, the markets will have turned around and the upper-end of society will always want to be in an upscale exclusive area directly on the ocean.
If I can think of one drawback about Bal Harbor it’s that the highway (I-95) is pretty far away, and to get there you need to pay a toll and go through the ghetto, or drive north on Collins to the Lehman and go through the debacle that is driving on Ives Dairy. Other than that, it’s one of the best places in Miami-Dade to live.
Shelley,
No I don’t know anything more on Broward. Just wanted to give people a head’s-up on this because Cornerstone also developed LaPerla in Sunny Isles Beach.
Sorry.
Un-Related,
Do you know anything about Cornerstone and/or LaPerla building? I had heard there were some disagreements between the owner in LaPerla and the developer about finishing things in the building………..
Thank you to those who responded to the question of local activities in Brickel. And also to the comments on living in Plaza. These are the types of responses which certainly help buyers to developed educated decisions on condo purchases.
I for one have spent quite a bit of time in Coral Gables and Coconut Grove, and will say these are fantastic areas to live. I have been curious about other areas of Miami (Brickel, Pace, etc) but so far nobobdy has been able to convince me they offer superior housing or activities to the Gables and Grove. Can anybody provide simiar experiences? These are the types of discussions which make this such a great blog! Thanks Lucas.
hey AJ
just wanted to mention that having a few percent down on your property and paying interest to the bank does NOT constitute OWNING !! its the greatest scam!! even if you put 100% down you are still paying rent(property tax) to the government!! but atleast then you might be considered an owner!!
further to living at Plaza on Brickell: it appears that at least three big-screen plasma TV’s have been stolen from common areas. Also, artwork in common hallways also appears to have been stolen.
Though in fairness: the building does have uniformed security that always appears to be alert and responsive (do we need any other proof that they aren’t just sitting around watching the TV’s?) , and the building does have excellent, first-rate, and responsive management.
You pay “rent” to the condo you live in too, it’s called maintenance fees. Funny, I was just thinking that the other day.
I have an apartment in La Perla. It is a very beautiful building. I has style and elegance, views are stunning from every apartment, plans in my apartment are excellent. Some other plans are not as good. I noticed that it takes about 1 to 2 years for the management to establish procedures and finish all little detailes to improve the building. I am not aware of any diagreements between residents and developer. There were some issues with management but it has become better. Closings were at the end of 2006. We bought it pre construction in 2002. Obviously initial prices were great. BTW when we were placing out deposit all our friends told us that we were crazy and that prices are too high. Our only fear about this building was that it would not be built. There were some issues and construction was delayed for about 2 years.
As far as finishes is concerned they are not bad but they are not your very high end finishes. It is o’k with me
Some one asked about Duo. I visited it once when it was in preconstruction stage but almost built. I liked the building but it does not have water views.
I second the comments about the Plaza. The parking garage is a disaster. Getting in is a 45 degree incline followed by a 180 degree blind turn, followed by more blind 180 degree turns that people whip around at 40 mph. Kitchen cabinets are deceptively small. No linen closet. No utility closet. Gym is ridiculously small for the # of units in the bldg. (3 treadmills for 500+ people? really?). Ingenious knee-to-ceiling window in front of the shower. (??) Non-standard a/c filter size (minor, but annoying).
Kramer,
I agree with your assessment of 50 Biscayne. $400 for east facing higher floors is sounds reasonable. But $200 for low floor west facing units? That might be a bit low. It should be at least $250. After all 50 biscayne is a good building, famous developer, great location.
Interested,
I got a 30 year fixed for 6.1%. You can’t beat that. Interest rates are now inching towards 7%.
Vishnu,
Thanks. I bought a high floor East facing 2/2 with unobstructed water views in the 1800 Club.
Umer,
Most of my flats are already paid off. This latest purchase is the only one with a substantial mortgage. I will be making accelerated principal payments to retire this 30 yr debt in about 5 years, just like I did with my other purchases.
Cynical,
It is starnge that you say that. I have been to the Plaza a couple of times and I straight went up to the elevator banks and then to the flats unchallenged by the security desk. I found it really strange, for the fact that it is a prestigeous building with a lax security. In my building even your pet cat with tip toes cannot get past the concierge/security desk. I am not surprised at all that the Flat screen TV’s from the common areas got swiped in the Plaza.
Ugh, there are going to be 50,000 foreclosures in Miami Dade this year….
AJ
50 biscayne is in a great neighborhood? come on…you are talking loco.
Lar,
Here is what I know:
On Cornerstone; they did well with LaPerla but have serious problems with all three parts of that Hollywood Station project. As noted, the “gave” the Hollywood LOfts segemnt back to the lender in what they called a “voluntary” foreclosure. The main building, Hollywood Station was a flop in closings. Terrible location across from RR tracks.
LaPerla turned out well as it was finished in early 2006. I know some flippers that bought in late-2003 that made $150K to $200K on a couple of units. The pre-construction was “cheap” @$300 a ft. The building did great post closings and is now packed with Russians who didn’t want to pay Aqualina or Trump prices for Sunny Isles.
LaPerla is a decent building but by no means is it “luxury”. The carpets in the hallways are cheap, same with the light sconces. The hallways are very narrow. Sometimes long waits for valet parking….very long at times. The common areas are pretty inadequate…..if the building was half full there would be problems with the tiny tiny pool etc.. For about 350 units the amenities suck. The management does a good job keeping the place maintained and cleaned but seems to be more interested in serving the board instead of the owners. There are a lot of challenges with the building so hard to judge the management overall. A TON of renting in the building with 15%+ units for sale and a bunch for rent or rented. A bit crazy with the owners sneaking in short term “renters” as guests with weekend “leasing” like a hotel. Now we have cameras installed everywhere……..big brother is watching you including in the elevators now (the cameras were recently installed)! Most floorplans are decent. The major beach access adjacent on the south side can make for a bit of a hassle and with Newport Beach Resort next door on the north side there is a lot of traffic from strangers outside and sometimes noisy drunks. I think the prices should get to average $300 p.s.f. sometime in the future. If you are looking for a luxury, hassle-free, relaxing building, look elsewhere since LaPerla doesn’t quite fit the bill. A decent building but nothing to brag about. Some of the staff are not helpful at all. Other than increasingly feeling like I am living in a jail at times with all of the new surveillance instead of my home, it is OK. Oh did I mention that there has been a fair share of foreclosures too. I would rate the building a “6” maybe a “6.5” we’ll see….
By the way, I know people who sold at substantial losses if you consider $60K+ + closing costs substantial. There are some desperate sellers who are desperately trying to rent or sell.
The developer didn’t finish everything and as I understand it, still needs to do some work.
Certainly LaPerla is one of the cheaper buildings on the beach which explains why it did well and was one of the first too which really helped.
Kramer,
I made a little error regarding 50 Biscayne. I meant to say that high floor East facing ideally should be $350/sf and the West facing low floors should be bumped up to $250/sf. I cannot imagine a $200 premium per sf for East facing units as you suggested in comparison to the West. A $100 premium is more like it.
jcrimes,
50B’s location is good if not great. If not the Pace Park, My next best choices were One Miami and 50 Biscayne. One Miami is in a total mess right now as per so many stories I hear on this blog and I would not touch it, but at one point of time, I was dreaming of the 3 BR unit in the North tower (or East tower) facing the water.
At one point. I was considering 50 Biscayne, but the even numbered lines 02, 04, 06 and 08 were asking ridiculous prices. Even now they are extremely high. I like the location because
1. It is right in front of Bayside Marina and Bayside market place.
2. I like the corner location of Flagler and Biscayne. I love the stores and conveniences on Flagler.
3. Metro Mover near the building.
4. The views from 50B are not as pretty as the views from Pace Park buildings but they are better than the Views from Park west buildings, whose views are overwhelmed by the AAA and the port of Miami.
Agitprop thanks for the color.
Is there a consensus of the main areas of Miami which are the most upscale, is there a range per sq ft for each area, Sunny Isles, BH, Brickell, Aventura, Downtown, Key Biscaine, Coconut Grove, etc? anywhere i can find some sort of ranking?
AJ thanks for the suggestion.
I did not know Sunny Isles until a month ago.
In my last visit to Florida, i had a few things to do in Aventura and a friend to visit in Ft. Lauderdale so i chose a hotel in Sunny Isles thinking it would be a good compromise for location. I had only 3 days.
First thing the struck me: reading so much on the papers about the mega-crisis, i expected everything to be empty. All comments below are my impressions relative to the last time i’d been in town, one year before.
Landed in MIA the airport seemed unusually quiet. Then on to Hertz to get a car: there were so many people there it took over an hour just in the queue to get to the counter!
On the road traffic seemed easy too. We got to the hotel kinda late and surprise: overbooked.
How could it be overbooked! Isnt america at the bottom of Great Depression II?
After a major hassle we got a different room in another building.
The hotel was pretty cheap and i didnt quite like it.
I was struck by the immense number of near-completion-mega-towers. Some seemed pretty nice, some other not so much. Overall i didnt like the area too much.
Next on to Bal Harbour. As you said, just a stone’s throw away, but still it felt like another planet, much nicer, more exclusive, and the mall is really nice too. Being much smaller there is a certain neighborhood feel to it that Sunny Isles doesnt have.
Then southwards: going down Lincoln at night, the SOBE area seemed a lot worse than my year-before impressions. Place just seemed like it impoverished a lot., even saw a couple of bums sleeping on the sidewalks. Maybe they were always there but i didnt see them the year before.
Last day went for lunch at a nice restaurant in the Brickell area. If i lived and worked in Miami would probably choose that area, but for a vacation home it wouldnt fit me.
I know nothing about other areas such as Coconut Grove or Key Biscaine, dont even know where they are, hence my question earlier.
Amongst the areas i saw, BH would be my favorite, but once again very little time to do any proper research.
Hey AJ. What building did you buy in? What was your price per sq foot?
Shelley
I live in the DUO in Hallandale. What type of unit are you looking for? 1bed, 2bed, 3bed?
I like 50 Biscayne and Everglades On The Bay location because it represents true urban living. Within a 5-6 block walking distance is Post Office-Walgreens pharmacy-Gusman Theatre-American Airlines Arena- Future Museum Park with new Miami Art Museum and new Science Museum-Large Bayfront Park-Bayside-Macys-banks-liquor store-Starbucks-dentist office-hair salon- 3-4 nice white tablecloth fine wine restaurants-Metro-mover-3 large churches including a beautiful catholic church that was originally built about 100 yrs ago-a book store on SE first street and within the next year or so a 14 movie theatre and shops at Met project -Miami Dade College campus with a great annual book fair and numerous quality lecture series- a great urban location!
Jim Kramer, what an honor to have you here. Would you recommend I buy buy buy Lehman Bros before it shoots to the moon?
Ivy has that nice leasing sign hanging off the building. Sadly like all other new buildings it will be a developer run rental building with a few owners. Police shot and killed a homeless man near Camillus House in the Park West neighborhood this week. Good luck to those venturing into these rough unproven neighborhoods.
Just heard a retail analyst on Bloomberg radio state that the country has one billion sq. ft. of retail that is not needed.
Excessive retail expansion with massive store closing and the suckers on this board want retailers to build more space within walking distance to their condos.
The credit economy is over. No more retail for you guys.
Wild Bill – The “credit economy” is not only over, but the fabulous “debtor lifestyle” is also dead. How people went from prudent savers to running up debt carefree as a lifestyle will be written about for many years to come. The bill has now come due.
Mobi:
I would either want a west-west or east-east 1-bedroom, or an east-east C2 model (but probably too expensive).
How do you like living there? Is the building full enough where it’s not like living in a ghost town. Is it lots of noisy renters or mostly owners? Full enough where you don’t need to pay extra maintenance to make up for the shortfall?
Any info you can give me on your overall impression would be great. I’m seeing 1-bedroom prices for low 200s right now, but a friend told me there was a recent sale in there for $180,000. I’m not sure what a fair 1-bedroom price should be.
Leaner,
You have done a pretty good research on your short stay in Miami. You are spot on with your assessment of Sunny Isles, Bal Harbour etc. No, You are not imagining. Even I see markedly more homeless people this year in SOBE than before. I posted a comment a few months ago regarding the same.
In response to some bloggers continuously berating downtown-pace park locations for having too many bums, this is what I wrote about SOBE: “The bums used to be confined just to Washington avenue. Now they seem to be multiplying everywhere including Lincoln rd, Lummus Park, Flamingo Park, Alton rd, Collins, SOFI and so on. They are sleeping and publicly urinating where ever they choose. If the presence of sheer number of bums is the barometer of the desirability of a location, then SOBE should be the most undesirable location of all, not Downtown or Park West or Pace”
As with Sunny Isles, I am totally with you brother. I just don’t like the place. It just reminds me of the retirement ghetto called Aventura. I only recommended that you take a look at SI as it has a lot of newly constructed properties. BH is nice but there are not many new constructions there. You should also keep your eyes open for many fab buildings from 41st street all the way up to the Bal Harbour. Check out Akoya and such other properties.
I used to work on Lincoln Road, and the only Miami residents there were the bums. At least that kept the resident total in the low hundreds.
I think Sunny Isles will develop nicely…..might take 10-20 years but it will be nice.
South Beach residents like myself are so desensitized to the filth, bums, crime and cheesy tourists that we don’t care anymore. Most of us already doubled our money on our cubicle condos.
AJ said: ““The bums used to be confined just to Washington avenue. Now they seem to be multiplying everywhere including Lincoln rd, Lummus Park, Flamingo Park, Alton rd, Collins, SOFI and so on. They are sleeping and publicly urinating where ever they choose. If the presence of sheer number of bums is the barometer of the desirability of a location, then SOBE should be the most undesirable location of all”
The bums are in SoBe to panhandle from the tourists. If the Miami Beach police would man-up and crack down on them, the bums would find their way back across the 17th Street Causeway to……
I rent at Wind so I’ll chime in a bit about the area. I moved over from South Beach and there’s a huge difference between the neighborhoods, scenes, etc. It just depends what you’re looking for on whether it’s good/bad.
The area around Riverfront (where Wind, the Ivy and Mint are) is a little seedy. It’s not ghetto, it’s just abandoned at night (BIG DIFFERENCE, it’s no overtown like others have said, trust me). However, a quick walk over the bridge (2 mins unless you’re disabled – no offense) and you’ve got Tobacco Road, Indochine and the the River Oyster bar. There’s also Big Fish and Bricks (or whatever it’s called now) which is a nightclub that gets packed on the weekends. Another block away you have Transit Lounge which is a cool place with not yet SoBe prices. Another block and you’re at Mary Brickell Village. Blue Martini or Rosa Mexicana aren’t my scene (overpriced and full of cougars, but hey if that’s your thing…) but you’ve got Perricone’s, Starbucks (which closes insanely early), a really good Gelato place with coffee (luckily open late all week), and Lolita’s (which is very reasonable and very nice). There’s also red bar but i haven’t been to yet. A few further blocks (2 i think) and you have a lounge at the building on Coral Way, then you have Segafredo/Novecento/Pieducks 2 more blocks down. Midtown (whenever that’s done) is one Avenue over and then you have Biscayne two more avenues over. I like to walk so it’s great to have these options reasonably close. Coming from South Beach, I walked much more there than here. But SoBe has so many more options for everything (and better places to walk, more on that below). However on the beach you have to deal with the jetsetters, the glitterati, the posers, the tourists, the ghettos, wannabes, etc. Brickell, which has it’s annoyances, i find by and large is much more working professional with the scene. I find the people more interesting and friendly – but of course, there are lots of exceptions. On the beach West Ave was very friendly as well. Of course, you pay way more on the beach and the amenities aren’t as nice (but hey you’re on the beach).
As far as being active. I see many runners and bicyclists in the area which is great. The Grove and Key Biscayne are really close (couple miles) so you have lots of options and great scenery if you like to be active outdoors. Unfortunately though there’s no park like the beach has with Flamingo Park. This really, really sucks. I’d love the city to buy the area between Tobacco Road and MBV and turn it into a park with some cafes, but that would be smart and require someone with vision.
I think once Camillus House moves to Allapattah, the area north and west of Riverfront will begin to fill in. Right now you have homeless people up and down Miami Ave which is just annoying and nasty and prevents development and people from walking around there. Towards the east, don’t bother to walk along the river. There’s a tiny park (more like a bench area) that has become like a waterfront hotel for the homeless. And then you can’t reach Brickell ave from the riverwalk on the north bank, which is retarded. [One thing Miami desperately needs is cops walking the beat, or at least on bikes. This would really help to finally completely turn the city around. And tear down the barren Miami Arena which is just a haven for trouble.]
To the west, there’s nothing just buildings and the river. Right next door is the substation which sucks, and then parking lots. You have Garcia’s Fish which is awesome but that’s it and is a good trek (drive, don’t walk). The rest of the area is abandoned, marine industrial and close to overtown. Not good. Southwest you have Little Havana which is evolving ever so slowly. You have a lot of working class people there intertwined with some 20/30somethings at some new venues there and cheap good eats.
So this was a long rant, sorry about that. Anyway, the area has a lot of potential and I’d buy here if the prices came down to earth but for 250k for 1/1s it’s not worth it. If you’re long on the area though, it’ll be a good investment IMO at around 150k for a 1/1.
“A couple of weeks ago, a man was murdered right across the street from Steve Harrigan’s house in Miami Beach. ‘‘Unsettling,” the Fox News correspondent admits. So a chance to get out of town on
assignment sounded pretty good.”
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/changing_channels/2008/08/out-of-the-miam.html
I can’t even make this stuff up. It just flows.
AJ,
It’s very astute that you call Sunny Isles Beach a copy cat of Aventura. Back in the 90’s we did a streetscape Master Plan of all the streets in SIB, and the only thing we ever heard from the City Staff is we want it to look like Aventura.
They wanted the same landscaping, signage, street sections, even the same garbage cans and benches! Look how similar the city symbol is to Aventuras! It was ridiculous.
I lived in SIB for 3 years, it was fine for sprawl, getting to I95 was a PAIN. The people overall were nicer and friendlier than where I live on Brickell now. We were closer to the American border:P by 15 miles, it made a difference- in the driving as well.
I was frustrated that that was the best they aspired to, what is it they say? Every community gets what it deserves.
hey wild bill, was the shooting random or a robbery? That is scary. You think Miami has potential to turn into Detroit or Baltimore?
Oooh, but a HUGE difference between Brickell and SIB/Aventura area is that during the season you notice all the snow birds.
Traffic gets GOD awful- the stacking at lights is horrible, you sit through 2-3 lights. The shops and malls are over-crowded. Lots of oversized Caddies that look like no ones driving them going 10pmph in a 5omph zone. That I DON’T miss.
Kramer and Jose, nice infomation. I like knowing what’s in walking distance from developments and you guys paint a clear picture of the 2 areas.
Mark To Market,
I cannot find anything about a murder around 7oth and Collins. Perhaps it was a murder suicide. Some times those aren’t reported to respect the surviving families. The only recent murder I know of was the taxi driver who shot and killed the fellow taxi driver. This was behind the Bass Museum. Miami Beach has had murders all over, but only averages less than 10 a year. Which is not bad considering the hundreds of people that visit a year. The post office on Washington and and CVS on Alton are memorable shootings.
Wild Bill,
“hundreds of people that visit a year” Try a million.
The gang-bangers blowing away the two guys at the very end of the “hip hop” weekend in 2007.
Hip Hop weekend alone is enough reason not to live in South Beach. Hell on Earth.
Jose,
I know you had good intentions in describing the Miami Drainage Canal area (tempted to call it the Miami Sewer but I would hold off on that), but it reads like the description of a post apocalyptic Earth! MadMax anyone?
La La,
You are funny (#150)
It’s fine to me as long as it is thug on thug or drug lord on drug dealer violence. What I don’t like is random drug seeker on young professional violence. That is scary.
You all better change the topic or all the non-Miami readers are gonna think we’re crazy for living here!
All this dialect reminds me of the best bumper sticker I ever came across in Miami, “Come back to Miami, we weren’t shooting at you.”
For alla you out a towners reading some of this crap-Miami is not in a crime spree-Ive been here a while and you have peeps on here exaggerating crime that goes on in any relatively large metro area-Also hacing lived in New York City for four yrs or so you learn where to walk and you learn how to carry yourself and you know where to park your car or not. Some of these guys in here are doomsday -the world is coming to an end who belong holed up in a cabin some where in Montana. Id bet that if you checked the newspaper in Peoria Illinois for the last month you would be shocked at the crime there . Miami has gone through several what I would call ten to twenty year phases since its incorporation in 1896. Miami is a relatively young city where downtown Miami was the “Place to be” until about 1925-then from 1930 til about 1950 Miami Beach and the Art Deco era was the “Place To Be”. from the 1960’s til about 85 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove was the “Place To Be”. Then of course the rebirth of the Art Deco District-thanks to some people with foresight and vision-up until now-was-is?? “The Place To Be”. The next “Place To Be” is full circle back to Downtown Miami. Catch the wave or don’t. Its your nickel.
By The Way-The Developer For the huge downtown project at Biscayne and SE first street which includes a 70 story four or 5 star hotel and another office tower with about one milliom sq feet of office space and supposed to top off at over 1000 ft high is in the final design stages and in the permitting process-And dont forget about the parcel om Biscayne and Fourth Street has submitted plans and the city has now approved this project which calls for twin 95 story condo towers.
haha madmax. no it’s not that bad. i was just trying to paint a real picture for the out of towners, not a rosy or bleak one. Like Kramer said, Miami is a major city. You have to have your street smarts here like in any other place. As bad as I may have painted the picture here, I still walk around and exercise in the area (run/ride bike). I’ve also been straying into the areas on Miami Avenue but like I said before, it’s empty come nightfall/weekends. Which sucks because there are actually some good food options.
I’ve lived here all my life and trust me, Miami has improved by leaps and bounds in every capacity. The great thing is that the area still has so much potential to be so much more. I guess that’s what keeps me here. Anyways, that’s my $.02
kramer said: “For alla you out a towners reading some of this crap-Miami is not in a crime spree-Ive been here a while and you have peeps on here exaggerating crime that goes on in any relatively large metro area-Also hacing lived in New York City for four yrs or so you learn where to walk and you learn how to carry yourself and you know where to park your car or not.”
That is the “secret” to living in ANY large city, whether it be in the US or anywhere else. If you “look for trouble” in any city, large or small, you are sure to find it.
Miami is a lot less “dangerous” than it was when I moved to Florida in the early-1990’s. To some degree, the street crime, anywhere, is a result of the strength or weakness of law enforcement. It comes down to being able to crack down without being perceived as too heavy-handed.
There has been a Great improvement in safety in the Pace Park /Omni area in the last few years!
some used to find the area dangerous and threatening but even at its worst it was quite tame compared with the New York City where I lived in the 1960s and 1970s where one eye looked UP watchfully for muggers and the other eye DOWN for ubiquitous dog droppings on the sidewalk..
Enormous improvement in the nabe since I moved into the Grand in 1990 when venturing out in the evening 2 streets to the old 1800 Club for one of their incredibly good burgers was an experience…
had a neighbor who was licensed to carry a weapon which he did when walking in the area at night and he did brandish it once when some thugs approached him+his wife in a not friendly manner-
..but now thanks to the property developers we have thousands of new living spaces in the area ; more people strolling the streets and a sense of a growing community..
It will only get better as restaurants start to fill in the empty spaces along Biscayne Blvd : can’t wait for a first rate Thai place to open .
The building boom is over. Besides a few new projects downtown will be stuck in a uncompleted cycle for another ten to twenty years when another batch of developers has a go at it again. An mess like downtown Jacksonville, FL.
Wild Bill,
I think it will be in small increments, but the improvements and building will continue. Just not at a Renaissance level like we just had. It will develop at a more normal pace until the next boom.
On a Positive note,
I actually went this morning to La Provence bakery on Biscayne and Wow, what a great experience that was… I remember this bakery from Coral Gables ( a fixture there for 20 plus years…) and I have to say that it is more upscale and the patrons were a lot more hip and sophisticated than I could have ever hoped for. I drove around Biscayne and much to my amazement it was buzzing with joggers, pedestrian traffic and a general palpable sense of a total gentrification in progress. I have to say that I am feeling somewhat better about my investment in this area.
Also, I have to confess that I thought that this area might be somewhat deserted with all the new construction, but on the contrary I noticed that it was teeming with life. Granted, it could have been busier, but in sharp contrast to lets say 2 years ago, things are 80% better. There were even Italian tourists and New Yorkers in the mix… imagine that. I can only imagine what this area will be like in five more years…
There will always be Jeremiahs and other doomsday prophets about any city… but I think given the colossal nature of the banking and real estate debacle and the fact that we are all still here doing well, we will do just fine. Watch the strength of the dollar… I said it before and I will say it again… if you have foreign currency this is the time to change it back to dollars…
I had a quick bite over at Wendys on Biscayne today near Omni. It was funny watching the same homeless crack whore come in and out of the restaurant. She kept going to the restroom, then would walk out and approach all the strangers for money or “personal favors”.
Then there was the usual 4-5 homeless bums circling the cars parking for money.
Reminded me why I don’t live there!
Why does it make you crazy to think that crime could worsen? Detroit is dangerous, Baltimore is dangerous, is it crazy to think that this could happen to Miami? You guys are using a straw man argument. I am just saying crime is on the increase. Miami is MUCH more dangerous than New York. Per capita, murders in New York are quite low. Per capita in Miami they are quite high. I’m talking about NOW, not 1970. I am worried about being murdered in the present, not the past.
“For alla you out a towners reading some of this crap-Miami is not in a crime spree-Ive been here a while and you have peeps on here exaggerating crime that goes on in any relatively large metro area-Also hacing lived in New York City for four yrs or so you learn where to walk and you learn how to carry yourself and you know where to park your car or not.”
Nice way to make Miami look safe and sophisticated with that post Kramer, or should I say “thug life”
DLJ,
I have been urging all the bloggers to either bike or walk from 15th at to 30th st on Biscayne Blvd. It has been an amazing transformation. You really can’t experience it by zipping through the blvd in a car. And that French bakery is a fine one too. The chefs signature churrascaria is also a good place to eat. Very cheap and delectable eats at the Latin cafe 2000. I have not tried the Sushi restaurant or the Italian restaurant in the Biscayne Plaza Building. Any reviews? The Daily is a must visit for anyone. Has The Salad and Wrap store opened yet next to the daily and so did the Indian Restaurant named Bengal opposite to The Daily?
I am wondering what is that ginormous space in the fisrt floor of Opera Tower going to be. They have advertised it for lease for a high end restaurant. I wish I could open a Lounge/Restaurant there. It is the perfect place for that as the 5000 units in pace-OMNI do not have a single lounge/club to go to. But it is beyond my budget. I am also eagerly awaiting what stores, shops and restaurants are going to open in Paramount Bay and the Something about Mary’s House. These are very exciting times for Pace-Omni.
And by the way, One of the New York City’s famous Gay Lounge/club called Vlada in the Hells Kitchen area has signed a lease to open up a branch on NE 2nd ave at 31st st. It is more closer to Midtown than the Pace Park area. But one thing I can surely say is, When the Gays start arriving, the gentrification is not far behind. This maybe the beginning of the revitalization of the 2nd Avenue.
If there are any honchos here looking to start a business in a virgin territory, you may also consider the space that is available right now at the 1800 Club. It is a humongous space with a verandah on the Bayshore drive with views of the Park and the Bay. It would be terrific space for a lounge/club/restaurant. Unfortunately, it is not for lease but for an outright sale with a steep price tag of 4 Mil. Any takers.
I think the first person to open a nightlife scene in Pace – Omni will make tons of money as there is none right now. The reason why Blue Martini is minting money is because it is the only game in town (Brickell)
AJ,
LOL. The gays have arrived! That’s funny! I always say you will see gays and Iranians (I’m half) in all the most beautiful places in the world, so if they have arrived, you know it’s on its way! That’s a definite sign for sure! Awesome!
AJ,
That is great news… I am sure the area will do well. If I was looking for a place to live I would certainly consider it as I really like its vive. If someone is looking for a more sterile neighborhood than yes, look elsewhere(but just remember that sterile means boring)…I really liked what I saw and I think that most people would agree. We do need more restaurants and lounges in that area and I realize that it is just a matter of time. I wish you the best of luck in your future endeavor…Someone told me that there was a wine bar planned for the area… any news on that as that would be great.
Does anyone remember what MB was in the 90’s … That is what I am envisioning for this area… an eclectic mix of people working together to make this the most sought after neighborhood for the young and artistic crowd… Those were great times…
bc,
Yes, there is still a homeless problem especially from 30th street and beyond, but it was much worse… Not that I am comparing, but SOHO also once had a homeless problem and to some extent still does… So does metropolitan San Francisco…so what…
DLJ,
The wine bar is alive and kicking. It is right next to that Argentinian Sushi place ( both have a really nice decor and ambience) in the Biscayne Plaza building between the 18th and 19th street. Both places look really cool.
Been to the wine bar. Nice atmosphere, good live music (the night I went), and friendly service. 🙂 There’s also a great little place on Miami Avenue for breakfast and lunch. I forget the street and name but on the Miami ave side of the street with the Daily and the wine bar/bike shop. It’s right next to a gym.
Shelley:
I have a 3 bed west-west. I like both west-west and east-east because you are not facing the other tower. The building is quite full, many people living there from what I can see in the parking garage. Most of the people own their unit, only a small percentage of tenants. The building is very well maintained, we’ve been very pleased so far. Obviously, we love the location, being next to the plaza where we have access to many restaurants, supermarket, starbucks, panera bread, post office, bank, etc… Concerning the units, some of them have been upgraded with travertine or marble floors, this is a plus.
If you want to contact me, you can ask my email to Lucas.
Jose,
You may be talking about the 18th street cafe. It is right next to the Gym on the 18th street. Incidentally, some of my SOBE friends come to this Gym to work out!! I don’t know why they would leave the equinox, crunch or Gold to come to Overtown to workout. They know something that I don’t? I think the gym is called M power on the 18th street and 2nd avenue, two blocks west of Pace park/1800 & Quantum.
speaking of crime, what about the 6 murdered cab drivers? That can’t be a good sign…mark, Miami has the potential to turn into a Detroit if crimes against infrastructure (transport or otherwise) continues.
Here is the link to 18th st cafe site and another link to a review
http://www.18thstreetcafe.com/index.html
http://www.yelp.com/biz/18th-street-cafe-miami
Gables, please take note. Look at the Daily, 18th st cafe, Paisano, Latin Cafe 2000, Sushi, Wine bar, Churrascaria and many other delightful choices all in a 2-3 block radius from Pace. And the surface is barely scartched. In 2 short years, there will be a flood of eating/socializing places in this n’hood. All we need is a nice lounge/club to anchor the nightlife. I am 100% sure, it will come in the next 2 years and there will be no stopping after that. Mary Brickell Village, eat your heart out.
Here is another nice review of the place. Actually there are many more nice reviews I read on the net. I have never tried the place. I will be definitely visit the 18th st cafe on my comin trip to Miami in 3 weeks.
http://www.dailycandy.com/miami/article/31216/18th+and+Life
Does anybody have any information on Everglades on the Bay (870 units in 2 towers)? I was just browsing around and shocked to see how far along it is (mostly because I never hear their name mentioned). This should be a May ’08 picture:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Everglades_on_the_Bay_south_20080514.jpg
Down here in Miami Beach woth the family. A couple of observations:
1. Sobe looks run down more so then previous visits.
2. Downtown had more people walking around than las year.
3. Pace Park area is shaping up nicely. Saturday we noticed many people walking, running, biking, etc. Looking good.
4. Brickell had people out as well during the weekend.
5. Brickell Key was probably the nicest area of them all. Just felt upscale and safe.
At this point we all agreed that SOBE is no longer on our list of areas to live. Even sofi seemed to loose some of it’s appeal. Although sofi was always out of out price range.
“Best places to live today” area ranking:
1. Brickell Key
2. Brickell
3. Pace Park area
4. Downtown
Just my opinion of course.
Miami 2008,
I concur with your assessment as the key word is “today”.
There is one issue I have with Brickell Key. The place loks too sanitized and unreal. I never see any any people there except an occational nanny pushing a pram. What struck me is that teh nanny is dodging the cars on the street as there is not even a single green space to push the baby carriage (or walk a dog for that matter). In fact there are hardly any places to hang out. You got to leave the Island for everything. I do not understand why BK got 8.5 (the highest ranking) for location criteria in the condo rankings page.
And one most important thing post 9/11, How could the powers be let so many buildings and such concentration of flats come up in such a small area with just ONE exit?
The FAA can dictate how high a building can go. Just like they lopped off the top 10 loft-penthouses of the Marquis. Similarly, the DHS (Department of Homeland Security) should be able to say no to such unwise concentration of houses in a boxed area. What about the fire department? They make sure that a building has enough exits and escape routes before giving the occupancy permits. What about an entire neighborhood? God forbid, if a terrorist incident has to occur at the Port of Miami, The Brickell Key Denizens are the first to get fried as there will be no escape as the 2 lane bridge connecting it to the outside world will get jammed in exactly 30 seconds.
Even if we do not go that far, just wait 2-3 years until all the new flats in Brickell are occupied such as Icon and 500 etc. Getting out of the Island on an everyday basis will be a real pain. Tha jams will extend all the way till Asia on some occasions.
Wow – AJ – Dept. of Homeland Security has no authority over buildings. Get out and enjoy the nice weather…..too much time on your hands.
AJ: Your comments on Brickell Key simply are not grounded in any reality. Have you ever stopped your car and spent any time at the Island Marketplace or the Brasserie? How about the newly opened wine-bar or a Sunday morning brunch at the Mandarin?
All of these are nicely populated with Brickell Key residents on a regular basis and not just nannies. As for places to hang out, there is a beautifully landscaped greenbelt with walkways, benches, and public art encircling the entire island, plus a brand new public “green” square just in front of Asia that also contains a childrens playground.
I am not saying it will reach the level of variety and street life that eventually N. Biscayne Blvd/Pace will…it’s a totally different animal. But Brickell Key is absolutely not some lifeless, unconnected place like Grove Isle (for example). It is a very well executed and well located world class residential development that was spearheaded by the Swire Company (Cathay Pacific Airways, major real estate across Asia, etc.)
As for the “dangers” of evacuation, how about Miami Beach? At least 1000x the population of Brickell Key and basically three ways to exit inland: the McArthur, the Julia Tuttle, and the Venetian. Or Manhattan for that matter? Better move to that cabin in Montana if one is to live life with these kinds of “sky is falling” worries.
I own units on both Brickell Key and in the Pace area (Quantum)…each has their distinct strengths and an out-of-towner could do much, much worse than to buy on Brickell Key…so please don’t be so quick to trash it in such an unobjective way.
Isabel,
I am glad I prodded you into commenting (I have never seen your comments before). That is why we have this blog to see opinion and counter opinion.
I am glad you like Brickell Key. It indeed is a very nice looking place. It is a bit congested for my taste. Even if a doomsday scenario is far fetched, please believe the traffic chaos that will soon engulf the entire area. I was stuck for a while near the entrance to the bridge when the Alicia Keys Concert at the AAA and the Reggae Festival at the Centennial Park were held at the same time. That is at a time when thousands upon thousands of flats are still vacant in Brickell. Just worried what will happen when all these flats gets filled up eventually. Miamians are notoriously addicted to their cars. Unless it changes, there is not much hope.
AJ your cheer leading is on the level of propaganda. Get outside, there is a hurricane coming.
AJ, 18th street cafe is the place i was talking about. Nice owners, good eats. I have a couple of friends that work out at that gym, no idea why. My guess would be it’s for serious workouts, which is the opposite of equinox which has a vibe of a lounge with workout machines.
Had dinner at Cafe Sambal at Mandrian Brickell Key. Afterwards we walked around the island and saw several people walking, jogging and roller blading around the baywalk. I agree with AJ that there could be traffic concerns, but as for “today” it is by far the safest and most upscale area in the city. Years down the road I do see great potential for Pace Park and Downtown areas. I did see improvment in Park West and Pace Park area. Last year we parked behind Ten Museum during the day to look at some units. The homless people were looking at us like we were from Mars. Didn’t fell safe at all, and I am no stranger to homeless being from NY. It was nice to see more regular people walking around the city this year! Nice to see the improvements are coming. Can’t wait to live down here 🙂
BTW, I don’t really like the buildings on the river…Neo Vertika, Ivy, Wind, BOR, Lattitude, etc. That area just doesn’t do it for me at all.
HURRICANE ANDREW IS COMING!!!
what effect will TS Fay have on the condo market over the next month. My feeling has been that a hurricane to the region this fall would be devastating for the RE market. This storm wont have that effect, but i believe it will push alot of people away from the sidelines until at least november. why take the risk of a purchase which could take damage in your first few months of ownership.
on the flip side, a hit by a stronger storm will separate the good from the bad in building quality. the good will rise in price and the rest will fall. survival of the fittest.
I think this tropical storm coverage will take out a few buyers at the margin. It is just one more risk/cost that make other place more desirable. Won’t affect a lot, but in this market, every little bit hurts more than it would in a normal market.
I hope this hurricane destroys an unoccupied condo and as a result creates fears of condo safety and they ALL decline in price. WOOT!
JL-EvergladesOn The Bay expects their certificate of occupancy end of August as their contracts stipulate a September 08 closing. Great location directly across from Bayside Marketplace and just a 3-4 block walk to American Airlines Arena (Miami Heat games and large concerts) with the Metro-Mover only a half block up the street. The pool area deck which overlooks Bayside Marketplace is enormous on the eighth floor with two pools both at 100 ft by 35 ft and a large Lap pool with another pool located on the west side. Amenities include a five story spa with gym- men and women locker rooms and showers steam-sauna two business centers recreation and party room. South building has direct east forever unobstructed cruise ship -pool deck and bayviews and with Live Nation buying the rights to the Amphitheater directly across the street you could watch their concerts from your balcony. Developer is Cabi Developers who is also just finishing a large project in Sunny Isles in partner with Turnberry Associates. Cabi is also doing the Huge Capital On Brickell project and is the largest luxury developer in Mexico with numerous finished projects in Mexico City-Acapulco-Cabo San Lucas and Cancun Cuzumel. Everglades- Good Quality-Smart looking building in a great location.
BTW-For all you Cassandras out there- Immediately after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 real estate prices went up approximately 100% during the next 2 yrs.
Personally i think Key Biscayne is a great place to live. Not too far from anything Miami has to offer yet isolated from the craziness. Anyone have any thoughts on the condo prices on the Key?
To all the pollyannas that bought condos: you’re losing thousands! HAHAHA
bayside marketplace…yeah, that’s a real magnet attraction. and the AAA? what are you smoking?
kramer said: “BTW-For all you Cassandras out there- Immediately after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 real estate prices went up approximately 100% during the next 2 yrs.”
There was a good reason for this. “Andrew” flattened thousands of single family homes in South Dade. People had to find somewhere to move – like yesterday!
TS Fay in NO Andrew but a direct hit on Miami will certainly do one thing, make it even more expensive for HOAs to find and buy insurance.
Remember what the Conrad Hotel and Greenburg Traurig office buildings looked like after CAT 1 “Wilma” in 2005. This was before all the new glass and open-air amenities appeared at the new buildings.
Flattening a building it won’t, emptying the wallet of a HOA it might!
“Bayside marketplace”
OK, looking for some objective commentary on Bayside. Been there 3 or 4x in 5 years going by boat. It seems to do too well to be a tourist-only trap. What’s odd is, I don’t know anybody that ever goes there or admits to going there. If you can get past the obvious touristy feel of Bayside, anything worth noting inside? Also, for the historians out there, has Bayside been doing better or worse over the years or just going sideways?
Everglades on the Bay will probably be the best buildingin downtown. It is going to have a huge retail section on the ground level, the building is really nice, and the location is great (in my opinion). also someone mentioned capital on brickell, that wont be happening anytime soon.
Looks like FNM and FRE are going under soon. Say hello to 7 and 8%….This is great news for all cash buyers.
But the real deals will be at 9,10, 11, 12, 15, 20% when the US loses its AAA credit rating. WOOT!
kramer – I guess should all hope for hurricanes then??? Oh please #193 is one of the most nonsense posts ever on this blog. Keep up the good cheerleading work….I’m sure a lot of people are that stupid (sarcasm). Making homes more expensive is the OPPOSITE of what this market needs since there are not nearly enough buyers….duh.
Interested,
That is exactly what you will be for the rest of your life. Just “interested”, never able to take that last step. Just enjoy those new shooz you bought last week and the memories of the $15 Martinis you had over the weekend. You will never be a home owner. You are not made to own real property.
By the way Interested reeks of the stink of his previous names of Ace and Mo. His posts are a dead giveaway, no matter what he decides to call himself this week.
Check this guys IP address. It will be the same.
JL,
Bayside Market place is a delightful place to hang out. You got all your facts confused. It is not an exclusive tourist hangout. Just check the bayside parking garage when there is not even an event going on in AAA. It is parked full of local Miamians cars, who are there to enjoy the many restaurants, entertainment (most of it is free), shop or just to take a simple walk along the waterfront.
I have really enjoyed Bayside Marina many a times. I ate there and surprisingly, the food is very tasty and very inexpensive. I enjoyed the open air concerts there. It is the next best thing to being at the keys.
I have noticed one very annoying and stupid trait among some misguided local Miamians. They sneer and jeer at the traditional tourist hangouts such as Ocean Drive, Lincoln Rd etc. It is almost as if it is a crime to go and eat out at the Ocean drive. They feel very superior that they go to some obscure place and not where a tourist hangs out. Utter rubbish.
I have enjoyed a really juicy and tender steak which was 50% off of its price at the Ocean Drive, more than the the $50 steak at the Smith and Wollensky.
JL, do not fall into the same rut. Snobbery will get you nowhere.
AJ,
re: Bayside, I said “It seems to do too well to be a tourist-only trap. ”
My point is Bayside tends to be looked at as a tourist trap but it’s got too much traffic IMO to be that. In fact, I’d venture to say it’s traffic is much more consistent than touristy Lincoln Road. I’m curious which local demographics are attracted to Bayside. Anybody know if Bayside has grown over the years?
Sure takes a real man to be pressured into over extending yourself and buying up overpriced real estate. People that didn’t buy showed self restraint and will be rewarded significantly.
Aj, hear that sound? Thats the sound of you going BK. I don’t spend my money on $15 martinis so I can feel rich. I save and when I do spend its on durable goods. As a result I’ll be able to take one of your properties off your hands for $125-150/sq foot after it is foreclosed upon.
All cash baby.
Oh, I see. You have upped your offering price from $125/sf to $150/sf? What happened to all your predictions in your previous avatar as ‘Ace’? Getting frustrated that the market is not moving in your direction? Don’t worry, I will still give you first dibs on my dog house to you for $150/sf next year.
Anybody know anything about Southpointe, an older highrise condominium at the tip of SOBE that most websites (with a few exceptions including Lucas’) ignore?
AJ, you’ll be eating dog food before this is over….either that or ramen….hahaha. I have no commitments. I have no worries. If I’m wrong (which I’m not) prices will stabilize for years. If you’re wrong you lose thousands, your home(s), and your credit rating. Only you can lose. I can only win or be unaffected. Keep making those payments friend. I pay $1000/month in rent. HAHAHAHA.
Once again, after reading the various comments, I feel that I did the right thing to walk away from IVY. My intention had never been to live in it. I just trusted the Sales Rep. and “my” realtor assuring me that there would be no problem at all to flip it within one or two years. Their assurances proved to be totally misleading and I guess that they both knew better even then. At that time (2004) 1Br 1.5Ba 980sqft was selling for $340K to $460K depending on floor/view. Anyone has the current selling/reselling prices? Just curious and waiting to buy at the “right” price in Miami but, this time, only after a very careful due diligence.
Pelide, it takes no genius to answer that question. See what the rentals go for; when rental revenue can pay for the mortgage, taxes, HOA and maintenence, ie cash flow positive, then you are buying at a decent price. Otherwise you are overpaying. Patience friend.
Pelide, you did the right thing walking away. The cost of carrying this POS property if you have no intention of living in it would just be more money into the toilet.
The only consolation for you is that your sales rep and your realtor probably believed their own b.s. when they slathered the pig with lipstick. I’ve never dealt with a less knowledgeable group of people (even by the standards of Flori-duh!)
pelide,
Did you put up a 20% Deposit? If so, you should be entitled to a refund of 25% of your deposit. Call your escrow company, see if the second 10% (one-half of you original deposit) is still in the escrow account. Put a “hold” on the release of the escrown and ask the developer, in writing as specified in your purchase agreement, to return it to you.
Your loss should be legally capped at 75% of your original deposit. Good luck!
pelide
actually, i think your realtor didn’t know better. so many of these morons were acting as armchair economists back in 04/05.
Un-Related –
My point in mentioning Hurricane Andrew is because we have to be realistic in living here in that we are susceptible to category 3-4-5 hurricanes and Andrew is just the last example of what happens to older single family homes in Kendall-South Miami- North Miami etc. They blow away or lose their roofs creating demand for replacement homes-i.e. condos- Regarding the higher HOA fees you make it sound as if only the new condo buyers are affected by a big hurricane here. We are all affected. Even the moron Renter Tom- who somehow believes that his landlords windstorm wont go up with everyone elses and his rent to follow. Single family homes windstorm gets raised also. Lot of guys in here are trading their book. (The guys who bought are talking up the market and the people who are renting trying to talk the market down.) Either way , we will all know within the next 1-3 yrs how it plays outand I hope this forum is still here for all to be held accountable-haha-should be fun. One last thought. If new downtown condos go down to $150 per sq all that means is I can then buy a nice Coral Gables- Morningside- Roads area for an equivalent price. If prices indeed do crash to those ridiculous levels then two things must happen. 1. We are in an economic depression which considering the inept Bush administration wouldnt be out of the question and 2. the impression that only the new downtown condos will suffer this fate without Coral Gables- Kendall- Key Biscayne- older Brickell condos etc must follow. Because if you can get a 1500sq ft brand new condo for 150 per sq ft then a 25 year old condo on Brickell lets say must sell for approximately $100 per sq ft considering their age and necessary upgrades to compete. Ok then -have fun with this one guys and girls.
Un-Related –
My point in mentioning Hurricane Andrew is because we have to be realistic in living here in that we are susceptible to category 3-4-5 hurricanes and Andrew is just the last example of what happens to older single family homes in Kendall-South Miami- North Miami etc. They blow away or lose their roofs creating demand for replacement homes-i.e. condos- Regarding the higher HOA fees you make it sound as if only the new condo buyers are affected by a big hurricane here. We are all affected. Even the moron Renter Tom- who somehow believes that his landlords windstorm wont go up with everyone elses and his rent to follow. Single family homes windstorm gets raised also. Lot of guys in here are trading their book. (The guys who bought are talking up the market and the people who are renting trying to talk the market down.) Either way , we will all know within the next 1-3 yrs how it plays outand I hope this forum is still here for all to be held accountable-haha-should be fun. One last thought. If new downtown condos go down to $150 per sq all that means is I can then buy a nice Coral Gables- Morningside- Roads area for an equivalent price. If prices indeed do crash to those ridiculous levels then two things must happen. 1. We are in an economic depression which considering the inept Bush administration wouldnt be out of the question and 2. the impression that only the new downtown condos will suffer this fate without Coral Gables- Kendall- Key Biscayne- older Brickell condos etc must follow. Because if you can get a 1500sq ft brand new condo for 150 per sq ft then a 25 year old condo on Brickell lets say must sell for approximately $100 per sq ft considering their age and necessary upgrades to compete. Ok then -have fun with this one guys and girls. Peace
Kramer – Thanks for the shout out, not. My lease is locked in at the price and is renewable at that price with my own little cancellation clause built in in case I decide to buy something. So much for being a “moron” I guess! LOL Anyway, I am waiting on the sidelines to buy and that was the smart thing for sure. The rental cash outflow is half the cost of owning not including the declining real estate prices. And I have no worries. Brand new, professionally decorated that gives all visitors a “wow” when they first walk in. Who knows I might end up just buying it later next year…… Oh silly Kramer, don’t jealous.
How can anyone still be in denial about the real estate crash! It is of epic proportions. The level of optimism is astounding. FNM and FRE are caput. LEH, National City, AIG, WM, WB will soon follow. How can this be good for interest rates or home prices? Please address this point.
Mark,
Positive cashflow is impossible in Miami. It may happen in cities such as Austin or Raliegh or Topeka. Not in Miami. The reason being, there is a resort premium in Miami and people are happily paying that premium. If positive cashflow is the only consideration, developers would be building and people would be buying in Buffalo or BumFuk America. Not Miami.
You must remember one thing. Miami is the Americas Riviera. Southern California beaches are chilling cold and ugly (I am talking about the beach itself, not the general scenery). The rest of the Florida beaches are OK if you want to live among the hillbillies and rednecks.
People in this country just love Miami and so does everyone else around the World. When I was 10 years old , never had left my country, My dream was one day to live in Miami, Not New York! There are millions aroung the World who are fascinated by Miami. There is no such place in America or even the World. Where can you find a sophisticated Metropolis next to a hypnotic blue water, powder white sands in a great weather? Not Sydney, Not San Diego, Not Cape Town, Not Nice, Not Even Rio.
If you are waiting for a positive cashflow scenario or even a breakeven scenario in Miami, sorry my friend, you will be waiting all your life.
What are you talking about?! In that case then RENT would be higher too. YOU ARE BEYOND STUPID!!!!
THE RENT WOULD REFLECT THIS PREMIUM AS WELL YOU DIP SH*T
Nice meeting you too renter Tom. Ill apologize for being rude if you do-(sarcasm-duh. ) My previous comment about Hurricane Andrew was a fact not a wish it would happen or might happen. It happened. So considering we all live in hurricane alley tell me why it cant happen again.
Except for a few cases (Vue, Club) it is very difficult to develop positive cash flow on a new building unit. Construction costs will never allow this. New units purchased as investment will take 5 yo 10 years to produce positive cash flow. During this time period your only ability to make profit is through appreciation when you sell. Older buildings can produce positive cash flow from day one of purchase, but they tend to not be upscale in amenities. anybody who buys today as an investment expecting positive cash flow is nuts-this will not happen. but you can buy to live in, and the cost of owning will better the cost of renting sometime in the next couple of years.
There is a long term fundamental of prices versus rents. This got skewed during the bubble. You can come with creative financing to buy at something at a high price, but you can’t play that game with rents which don’t have such creative financing options and hence are truer indicator of the real value of housing……rents are directly tied to income whereas with creative financing housing prices ended up straying from its formr anchor with a 20% and 30 year fixed mortgage.
Either rents go up or prices come down. Well, rents aren’t going up since they are tied to income. So prices will come down. It really is that simple in the long term.
Housing won’t “bottom” until at least the second half of 2009 and won’t appreciate for years later (2-4). Hence, buying a house will lose in real dollar terms for years to come…… Hurricanes will be no help since any decline in the number of houses will be offset by higher insurance rates….
Mark,
Don’t show your frustration on me. Go and put on some makeup on those stress wrinkles.
AJ – Your analysis really are reasons why prices need to come down. Florida may be desirable, but both prices and rents would act in tandem if the prices were based on true demand instead of creative financing….
Renter-If my house after Hurricane Andrew as an example went from 200k before to 400k within a year or so after and my windstorm went from 5k per year to 10k per year it doesnt take a genius to see that if I sold after year two Im up 180k.
Renter Tom, these people are doomed.
One short term example doesn’t mean all housing went up. Plus the $416 extra in non-deductible insurance means that should take out about $80K of mortgage financing potential at 30 year 6% mortgage rates. Houses don’t double in one year, it was a glitch and unless you moving away, you’d buy a similar home in the same area at a high price too so unless you moved away were you really more wealthy?
But Mark, don’t realize Miami is special and its different this time! LOL
…and hurricanes are good for property values!!!
just think how rich we’d all be if Miami got a tsunami instead!!! Oh we’d all be lottery winners then.
…and why does California get all the earthquakes too! I bet it is those earthquakes that caused property values to rise in SoCal…..and now that they haven’t had any in a while prices are coming down!!! 🙂
But that was my original point in my original post about major hurricanes-Andrew created a glitch and demand surged and all Im saying is that another major one demand would again surge and you wouldnt be able to buy your rental for the prices your forecasting. You still havent answered as to why it can t happen here again as we live in hurricane alley.
Please, I beg you all, on my hands and knees with my keyboard on the floor and my head banging the floor, stop referring to Miami as a “sophisticated metropolis.” It is NEITHER!!
It is a regional city, at best. It is a suburb of Havana. It is the mortgage-fraud / medicare-fraud / whatever-fraud capital of the US. It is the most third-world city in the US. I have never seen any place with so much unjustified attitude as this city. oh, and it has an ever-growing supply of empty condo towers.
Even a Cat5 won’t get rid of all this excess supply……. Esp the newer construction oversupply since those darn things were built to a much higher code standard.
mark said: “Renter Tom, these people are doomed.”
Especially those people on Brickell Key who AJ claims are going to “fry first” in a second 9-11.
Not that it would matter if “they” nuked the Port but I think Star Island would get it first….
AJ,
Your post 222: It might be an exception, but I have a little postive cash flow on my condo in Q.
But You have to know, I didn’t do the financing in USA.
Let us take a survey.
How muchper square foot does anyone think Quantum with direct water view will sell for in 9 months. I notice a lot of units for sale with virtually no closings, poor indicator. How about the same with west or city views.
How about 50 Biscayne and how about Isola on brickell ket. Lets have opp and neg opinions. Tell the truth. Of course its speculation but that is what is all about isn’t it?
I didnt know cities could be sophisticated. Superficial ill grant you that. But dam after four years in NYC the weather In January orFebruary makes you want to cry for joy. Miami is colorful fun and the air is clean and if i want sophistication ill take a plane to NYC Paris or London for a few days
Quantum-Im guessing 350 per sq ft- w a direct water view
50 Biscayne- Im guessing 400 per sq ft with a direct water view
225 (and still sinking)
Damm both those price p/sq footage estimates are silly They have that pricing now and guess what I’ve monitored the current MLS listings at 50 biscyane and no suprise it hasn’t sold and nor will it sell.
Nice building but at the en dof the day you got to be either an idiot or moron to pay those prices. BTW take a look at the friends over @ MET 1…anyone even live in that.
I think Miami Dade just found their solution to for affortabe housing. Buy the project dirt cheap and then sell to our teachers and police and secretaries making an average Miami salary. Then dtown will become a more habitable place.
kramer
i’m not one to usually engage in ad hominem attacks on an anonymous board, and i apologize beforehand, but seriously, if you’re a MOT, then we need to put you on waivers. you are painfully dumb.
How can I get into Cynergi??!!! Wow, what an investment. If only I had bought pre-construction!!
Once Again said: “BTW take a look at the friends over @ MET 1…anyone even live in that”
No, and if you looked at their contract terms you would know why. No respectable flipper would get near that place. Damn contract was air tight. I guess Shaquille O’Neal will have to recoup his investment in MET 1,2,,3 by taking empty condos instead of cash!
Visionary,
I said that before. Many people who have negotiated a good bottom price and got favourable financing and bought in 2008 have done very well indeed. Most of them have realized at least 85% of their carrying costs per month via rentals. A few, just like you are breaking even or even making a tiny profit.
In a previous post on another thread a couple of months ago, I mentioned these people who are realizing anywhere between 80% to 85% of their carrying costs are being more than happy to pay a mere 15-20% out of pocket to own a piece of paradise. What is the reason behind this may be a big debate. Whether to resell in the future, use as a vacation home or retirement home, no one knows but the truth is that many home owners are quite comfortable with paying a small fee out of their own pocket.
Many people on this blog do not understand that reasoning or mindset. I used many analogies to explain it but I finally gave up.
Every time they bring up an old and beat up statistic (renting is half of owning), only applies to those flats bought in the inflated period of 05 and 06.
I have very clearly demonstrated that the rents that are being commanded in the 1800 cover 85% of the carrying costs. 15% is not a debilitating burden on the home owners. As long as the home owners are comfortable with this equation, the prices will never come come down. From every indication that I have seen, the majority home owners seem very content with this equation.
The ONE and ONLY way the prices will come down in these greater downtown buildings is if every renter decides to stay put in their rat holes in Kendall, Doral, westchester, davie, north miami etc and boycott these ultra luxury flats. But why would they? These such luxuries, which previously were the exclusive domains of the corporate types and the wealthy are now in the reach of start up young professionals. Who in their right sense of mind would reject living here even for a short duration of a few years, when they can take advantage of this opportunity during the downturn.
So all you renters, if you really want the prices to come down, do not crow in this blog. You are wasting your time. Go to some renters blogs, form a union and exhort them to stay put where they are and not to move to greater downtown luxury residences. That is the only way (owners not finding renters) will the owners drop their prices . If not you will still be miserable come 2009 or 2010 or when ever you realize your folly. You will realize that in 2010 you may have to pay the same price for a flat (if not more) as you would in 2008. You will realize then that you could have at least built some equity and save on some taxes for those 2 or 3 wasted years waiting in vain.
A pic is worth a thousand words…
http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketChartsAndMaps.htm?msa=Miami+Fort+Lauderdale+Miami+Beach+FL
AJ, your “logic” is making my brain hurt. As the old adage goes, “A fool and his money are soon parted…” Hope you are enjoying the ride – it’s going to be an expensive one.
Lucas,
I attended the auction in Miami Beach a month ago, and saw a 1/1 condo, 700sf, on a high floor with bay and downtown view in Isola – Brickle Key auction for $170k. Do you think this is a good price for the unit? What is your opinion on this building in terms of price/sf, and the health of the condo association?
Does anyone else have any opinion?
AJ, lets settle this debate. Tell us what building your purchased in. Tell us the price/sq foot. Then we will see who the idiot is. Just give us this information. If that is too much info, just tell us what price/sq foot you paid. That is all I ask. If you are a true man(and a genius as you claim), you will reveal this.
Mark,
Either you are ignorant or alseep. I just cannot believe you are still asking me this question. This entire blog knows where I bought my flat. I have mentioned that ad nauseum. Just shows that you are not even paying attention to what others have to say and just love to shoot your mouth off.
And what makes you believe that I want to engage in a conversation or settle a debate with you? I am more than willing to do so with someone civil. After you call me epithets, you do not have a right to ask me to engage in any conversation whatsoever. I had serious disgreements with so many others on this blog but no one ever called me stupid or dipshit. So go ahead and debate with someone else at your colorful language level.
And for everyone else who is wondering what I paid, I will reaveal it in this blog around Feb or March 09 (Nearly a year after my purchase). I will tell you all what I paid, I will give you the best and most comparable recent sale and let us see if I have to eat the humble pie or not.
Some of those who are very sharp can still remember what Visionary paid for his 1/1 in Quantum. I will not say it here but if you search this blog you will find the answer. He paid a very good price, Even the sellers have acknowledged in this blog that they did not lose money on this deal and also that Visionary is making positive cash flow on this flat. Everybody is a winner in this case!
Why won’t you tell us what you paid now? Because you are afraid prices will continue to fall and you’ll look like an idiot. If you were a man you would tell us the price/sq foot today.
Ron,
Is that the only good deal you saw in that auction? Are there any other notable sales other than the 1/1 at Isola?
AJ,
Can you provide me your email address via Samir?
I thought that as a rule of thumb, two bedroom condo purchases were preferred because they commanded higher rents and were easier to sell. During this downturn, the rental market in Downtown (and perhaps even Brickell) seems to favor 1/1s or studios. This may be because the demographic of renters (medical students and entry level professionals) has changed of late. According to Lucas’ info on this site, I see 2/2s in nice buildings on the rental market for 90+ days. Maybe this shift in the renter population explains why Visionary has done well with a 1/1.
AJ- #258
A friend lived in a 1 br in Isola back in its first life as a rental in the early 1990’s and I doubt it had a TRUE 700 sq ft of INTERIOR living space-
EXCLUDING the balcony my recall is maybe 625- was one of the smallest 1 brs had seen at the time in miami and there was little storage space or closets.
Thus even at a $170 th auction sales price IF I am correct on dimenions the price for LIVABLE interior sq ft was close to $250..
But don’t despair-it’s bargain city when you check out the new Toren condo in brooklyn ny with its even smaller 1 brs going for >$800 per ft.-there some of the bedrooms measure 9.0 x 9.8 .
Hey AJ,
I would’nt be so testy. That was a fair question that was asked. Stop talking out of your asshole, and fess up you overpayed. Recorded real estate transactions are all public knowledge and there are no secrets, unless you did a side deal ala tony montana? Guess you dont want to mention how much you payed because you overpayed at auction. But I bet you looked like a big man waving you paddle.
George, Thanks for the info.
Usually Perez is right there with info such as auctions etc. I am surprised that no one mentioned this particular auction last month.
Incidentally, where are all the Realtors such as Perez, Samir, Alejandro Diaz Bazan gone. Haven’t heard from them lately.
Visionary,
My e-mail is [email protected]
Shwin,
The 2/2’s languishing on the MLS are those asking for the moon. Either the owners are delusional or they paid such a high price that they cannot afford to rent for less. In either case it is a lose lose situation for them. Anyone who paid a reasonable pre-construction price in 2003 or 2004 and willing to subsidize the renters to the tune of 15 to 20% of the carrying costs and demand only a sustainable rent did not have to sit on the MLS for more than 2-3 weeks.
Dude AJ I couldnt give a #2 about you but man we know you love your beloved 1800 club yeah nice building but damm stop protecting or defending it. If I was losing 15 – 20% a month which is prob more for most owners that’s money that adds up p/year and in a declining market how does that make sense. So ok the market drops and then perhaps rebounds in 3-5 years to the same level as today that means I’ve lost 15-20% a year to sell at what I paid those many years ago makes no sence. If you’re on a 30yr fixed you’re not making a dent in your equity anyway maybee $700 to $1000 which you prob paid to a realtor to rent it out anyways.
YOU DONT MAKE SENSE!
Won’t comment anymore about this cause I think we need to move onto other discussions but man give it up already will you.
AJ said:
“Either the owners are delusional or they paid such a high price that they cannot afford to rent for less.”
I never understod that mentality with some putative landlords who price their rents so high that they just sit and sit. Swallow your pride and fatten your wallet and just rent the darn thing.
Renter Tom said:
“There is a long term fundamental of prices versus rents. This got skewed during the bubble. You can come with creative financing to buy at something at a high price, but you can’t play that game with rents which don’t have such creative financing options and hence are truer indicator of the real value of housing……rents are directly tied to income”
I was glad I caught that comment. It’s the missing piece in this picture that rarely gets mentioned and never as simply/succinctly as renter Tom just did.
It’s usually thought that investor demand skewed the market but, but that never told the whole picture. “Investor demand’ gives a false impression that there was a rational marketplace with just a lot more new buyers that resulted in prices outpacing rentals.
Instead, as renter Tom noted, the divergence between renting and owning occurred when financing options allowed people to ‘own” for next to nothing on a very large scale. If you had enforced rational historical banking guidelines on the demand, the bubble would never have developed. When you suddenly allow somebody to take possession with no money down and no questions asked, there is much less incentive to get a good price so it’s easy to see why housing prices shot to the moon while renting (which did not allow for financial engineering) did not. Why buy a $500,000 house when you could just the same “afford” a $1million house with the loose guidelines of yesterday?
People have always wanted to live in Miami from the early ‘80s to now. Miami’s always been cool but it certainly hasn’t gotten cooler lately. The strong outside demand for Miami housing has always been strong. What changed drastically during the bubble years was the creative financing options that allowed people to get something for nothing. This Miami bubble thing was never caused by a change in real market desire/demand, in fact, I bet more people desired living in Miami Beach then versus now. The easy financing options created this “phantom demand’ which resulted in the Bubble. The Bubble was about financial engineering and letting people use play money to own real houses… if only for a while.
Let’s take an example of a $450,000 1 bed/ 2bath condo purchased at 900 Biscayne….1042 sq. ft./ equals $433 per sq. foot….All direct bay views. Maintenance is $550, Taxes for the year will be approx 10,000….rental rate currently 2100. Mortgage payment is 2200 not including taxes or maintenance. I would like to ask everyone how much would I be losing??? Please take into consideration the fact that I am in highest tax bracket and can deduct 100% taxes/ interest….I would like to hear your thoughts.
How much are you putting down? About 20% and a mortgage at 6.5% would put you at 2200 a month for the mortgage.
dlr,
What floor & line at 900 did you buy at? I am in a simmilar situation and can share my analysis…
Please see below for a a small good summary on pricing from David Rosenberg’s “The Elusive Bottom”… interesting.
Chapter 1 was the end of the res construction bubble
When I look at where we are in this book, and we continue to write chapters in this book and it is a book; this is an epic period. We are living through history. People will be writing about this in the future, no different than they wrote about the 1920s and the 1930s. Chapter one of the book was the end of the residential construction bubble, which I would tag as the first quarter of 2006, when housing started to peak and began to roll over at 2.3 million units. I continue to look back at that, 2.3 million units.
The natural level of demographic demand for housing in this country is annual demand of 1.45 million units. From 2003 until 2007, builders added on average nearly 2 million residential units per year, or 30% more, than the natural demand could absorb, because, of course, we were in a new paradigm. So the builders were building homes and condos as if we had the same demographics as the 1970s when the Boomers were buying their first refrigerator. This is a case of Global Crossing meeting D.R. Horton, and we are paying the price for that, even today.
Chapter two was the end of the home price bubble
Chapter two of the book was the end of the home-price bubble, and I would date that to the first quarter of 2007 when the Case-Shiller Index began to deflate year over year. Now, I want to make this point, and I want to make this point emphatically. Home prices in this country on average rose 20% per year for six years. That has never happened before. When you take a look at home prices in real terms, they’re still more than 30% higher today than they were when this mania morphed into a bubble back in 2001. So to those people who are thinking that we’re only 5% away from the low, I’d say I don’t think so. Make no mistake that there is going to be more deflation in home prices ahead – I think significant deflation – just as Freddie Mac put us on notice yesterday.
is that the guy from Merrill Lynch?
If yes, I think his pieces are very compelling and well written, but be aware he is what is known in the industry as a “perma-bear”, basically been calling for a big recession forever, of course at one point he will be right, just like if i repeat all the time things will be great, there will be a moment where I’ll be spot on.
Things look very bleak at the moment but they change faster than anyone thinks.
Right now the overall sentiment is very similar to the prevailing wisdom of the early 80s right after the s&l crisis.
It looks to me we have some more work to do on the downside. Miami is also ill-positioned with a very large inventory. It has also shown a very large drop in prices, so the future is not so clear either way.
Let me clarify why i think there’s more downside, although to be honest you can’t say how much. Anyone who gives you a precise number is either lying or being dishonest.
The drop in prices we’ve already had would normally be enough to make this a safe bottom, except for ONE thing that’s very different this time, which is the near colapse of funding availability.
That worries me a lot.
FNM and FRE will end up belonging to Uncle Sam, but for sure at least initially they will be managed to reduce risk, reduce the size of their portfolios, be more conservative, since now the gamble is on the taxpayer’s dime. Surely whomever is chosen to manage / regulate the companies won’t pursue aggressive growth… not now when that strategy is exactly what brought them down… in the meantime normal banks who are still (barely) alive are sure to recoil too, they are trying to shrink their books, lend less, at higher spreads.
I am sure a solution will be found in due course. The entrerpreneurial spirit of America is not dead and business will resume, i just can’t see what could kick-start it now at this very moment. I, like Greenspan, tend to think a bottom will be reached within 6 months, perhaps end of 1st quarter of 09. Until then thre is little to be lost if you are an investor. If you want to own for personal use and see something you really like and is very unique, then i think it’s foolish to try to pick the absolute bottom, just go for it. This being a blog about condos, it’s hard – but not impossible – to think of anything that could qualify as ‘unique’ as all of those buildings have hundreds of identical units.
Okay, so you are in the 35% income bracket making your effective interest rate 4.2%.
Over 30 years you lose $153,707 vs renting. That is a loss of $426/month. This is with an appreciation of 3%/year in the price and a 3%/year increase in rents and a 3% inflation rate. This is a best case scenario as it is likely that inflation will be at least 5% this year and will be higher from here on out. It is also very unlikely that the property starts to appreciate at 3%/year.
If you hold for 10 years you lose $67,650. This is a loss of $564/month. This also uses the same assumptions. I think you are in for a much bigger loss.
#1.Rents are decreasing. Last week’s Miami Business Journal noted that rents are down 25% over the last year. Miami Condo Vultures claims rents are holding up, but they have vested interests, and they don’t use same location rents (uncontrolled study).
#2 It is likely that you will experience depreciation and not appreciation over the next few years, making your losses much worse.
The 30-yr and 10-yr figures are those the present values or a simple summation of today’s monthly losses?
Still think prices aren’t falling?
7700 COLLINS AV # 1, Miami Beach, FL 33141**
Price Reduced: 06/30/08 — $500,000 to $480,000
Price Reduced: 07/07/08 — $480,000 to $460,000
Price Reduced: 07/15/08 — $460,000 to $440,000
Price Reduced: 07/24/08 — $440,000 to $400,000
Price Reduced: 08/04/08 — $400,000 to $380,000
Price Reduced: 08/07/08 — $380,000 to $360,000
Price Reduced: 08/11/08 — $360,000 to $340,000
Price Reduced: 08/18/08 — $340,000 to $320,000
leaner, those numbers are calculated looking back after owning for 10 years and after owning for 30 years. Those amounts are in today’s dollars meaning that the nominal dollars (the number of dollars) will be higher depending on inflation.
leaner – I have concluded that housing prices will overcorrect on the downside. The main reason is “the near colapse of funding availability” as you stated. This will prevent simply returning to the long term fundamentals and will result in an overcorrection. The other factor that will help to drive this overcorrection was the truly lousy savings rate which is in the process of correcting….there simply are not enough people with an actual downpayment that would be required by a bank today to absorb anywhere near the oversupply and with the savings rate going up, there is less spending and more recession. The U.S. household balance sheet is shrinking and the asset appreciation paradigm is dead and causing distress to those that relied on that going forward. That is why there is so much worry today even though we aren’t in a defined GDP recession.
As such, Greenspan is simply wrong. The first quarter of 2009 will not be the bottom in even half of these excessive debt level problems.
The long term annual rent versus home price was 10-11 times. If you had a rent rate of $1,000/month ($12,000/year) the home price was $120,000-$132,000. Miami bubbled to somewhere around 31-32 and now is around 21-22. It has a way to go and could quite possibly dip below 10 on the way down.
The shadow housing supply is coming to light….including those empty homes that were second or third homes that people justified that they may retire to someday when they were just adding another justification to investing in housing. That and the huge “to be foreclosed” properties that banks simply can not handle at this point so are delaying foreclosing upon are also going to start being seen in larger numbers. The oversupply in housing will take years to absorb going forward.
Since most people rely on financing to buy a house, the financing has not only dried up significantly (bye bye creative financing), but even those that could get otherwise qualify for financing aren’t able to come up with the new required down payment amounts.
I simply am going to resist being a knife catcher at this point and will revisit the matter once a month (could be 24 more months!) which really isn’t fun since I’d like to buy now but the prospect of “losing” $100K-$200K+ is too unappealing for a reasonably frugal guy like me. There simply is no rush to buy in this market, period.
Mark – Your numbers are too optimistic. With AMT, most people, including myself, in this tax bracket can’t deduct the mortgage interest anyway…..
Tom, you’re 100% right, I was just trying to play devil’s advocate. You and I are one and the same in our views. Keep it up brother.
Hey Renter Tom, you’re right. The AMT is a bitch. I didn’t realize that. SO mortgage interest deductions are just another sham…wow.
I agree with almost everything. But it’s easy to get carried away. When pessimism is very high things have a way of bouncing that stuns most people.
You said:
” The long term annual rent versus home price was 10-11 times. If you had a rent rate of $1,000/month ($12,000/year) the home price was $120,000-$132,000. Miami bubbled to somewhere around 31-32 and now is around 21-22. It has a way to go and could quite possibly dip below 10 on the way down.”
I think you have to be careful when you look at ‘long term’ trends. Because things change so much that hardly anything that was common 30 years ago would make any sense today.
I dont know what peior you picked for the long term here, so i am just saying it MIGHT be bad sampling.
One example very often forgotten, interest payments were not tax deductible 30 years ago. That changes the level of rent-to-value permanently. AMT is a big problem but the AVERAGE national income and average property prices are rather low and AMT would not apply significantly to distort this statistic.
Another example also often overlooked, risk-free interest rates have been trending down for over 30 years. In the 70s you could easily get a treasury note for double digits. In the 80s anyone could buy one yielding say 7%. Now the 2yr note is at 2.25 and the 10 yr is at 3.80. That also changes the level of rent-to-value dramatically.
Bottom line: you may well be right we will undershoot. I tend to believe so myself. But ‘long term’ averages dont really mean much. Adjusted for those factors above plus a few more, we’d probably be a t the cheap end of the range already. So valuation-wise I personally dont think there would be a big gap between reality and good value IF FUNDING WAS STILL EASILY AVAILABLE. The problem is the funding.
Of course you can look at the same thing from a different angle and consider that funding costs and conditions are part of the valuation equation, which is the same thign as saying we must undershoot now. As I said I tend to agree.
One other caveat is, people often say “all things equal were going here to point X” but all things are never equal, policymakers react and change the conditions.
One scenario is things will get worse for a little longer than someone bigger initiative will be passed in congress, such as new tax breaks directly targeted at buyers of existing-but-unsold property (for example would not apply to new constructions, it would be something targeted directly at reducing inventory overhang).
The ‘unthinkable happens sometimes, in the s&l crisis in the end the federal government directly bought property! It can happen again.
These points are meant to say: no matter how bad the outlook is, stuff can happen that will turn it around quickly.
But all of the above plus an infinite number of alternatives the guys in washington are kicking about wont happen tonight while you are asleep. The proper strategy is to wait, if any new measure comes up that’s powerful enough to end this mess, then you go and make your move. So the important thing now is to have a target area, or target building, then you can move swiftly when the time comes.
Mark – is there a website that tracks the historical offered price declines? I’d like to see how desperate the sellers have become on properties I’m looking at.
But leaner, you talk about the AMT and then you talk about national home prices. We’re talking about miami specifically and anyone buying a 400K condo (that can afford it) will get nailed by the AMT. Also, the price of rents will adjust upwards for anything that legitimately alters the value of RE. That is why the ratio still holds true…its a ratio. Rents are higher here than in detroit for all the reasons we talk about, and as a result housing prices are inherently higher. But they are only higher to the extent that rents are higher. If you own (even if you paid off your house), you are just paying yourself the rent. Therefore using this metric to value a home is still and will always be valid. Some things are constant….people with more money are richer than people with less money. Being kicked in the nuts hurts. Politicians are corrupt. Communism won’t work in the real world. Humans can’t walk through walls. Need more examples?
With regard to investment rental properties, interest has always been deductible for tax purposes. It is the non-investment property where the AMT kicks in to make the interest essentially non-deductible (primary home, second home, etc.). Most buyers that can ACTUALLY afford an expensive second home would probably get biten by the AMT.
The annual rent to price ratio is pretty darn solid. I would bank on it. Miami was 12.4 in 2000. Couldn’t remember the exact number earlier. There is no reason the ratio wouldn’t go back under 15. Granted, some rents for high end units are pretty low since the owners are desperate so that could skew it a bit.
My point is, rents are a truer indicator of the value of homes since the monthly rental rate can not be manipulated with creative financing such as negative amortization loans, liar loans, reset, subprime, etc. etc. etc.
The Federal Govt will be stepping in to liquidate properties and take the substantial blows that the banks can’t handle. The question is, can the Fed Gov really take such a hit with little repercussion?
See:
money.cnn.com/2008/07/07/real_estate/price_to_rent.moneymag/index.htm
By the way, I was just in a national bank and spoke to one of the managers…. He just said no mortgages are being given for the second home condos and for owner-occupied primary residences they need 25% down and a lot of paperwork….wow. Plus, have a new friend who had a house that they paid $640K for and put a ton of money in it in a top school district with pool etc. Looked nice. Tried to sell for $600K and would lose their downpayment, now listed for $360K and no buyers……..they are desperately trying to get a short sale, any short sale through…….. It really is bad out their….but I’ll wait for it to get worse. Housing doesn’t turn on a dime….
How can I find out which bank owns a certain bank owned unit? In particular at Carbonell. Thx.
Renter Tom: you are right about things getting a lot worse before they get better. They were talking about the 5 year ALT-A loans will begin resetting and that will add to the housing misery.
Two of my friends are now leaving the state due to the housing crunch and the lack of good jobs in miami. One is relocating to San Jose, CA and other is moving in with his parents in MI. They are both in their thirties. 🙁
About AMT, I own one house and get hit by AMT. I pay about 30K in mortgae interest and property tax (combined). I get only a $4K tax benefit from it due to AMT. My brother is in the same situation. 🙁
carbonblackcab: Yep, the AMT bites on real estate property tax deductions too…..forgot to mention that too. Oh, and charitable contributions are reduced too.
TNT….I am a B3 on the 47th floor….I am interested to hear your analysis. Have you closed yet?? What are your thoughts on 900??? I have to say it’s very impressive….I only hope Museum Park, Island Gardens and Miami World Center aren’t just pipe dreams.
dlr,
B3 and B4 are great units with great views. Their balconies are better laid out than the C unit’s.
What do you know of Island Gardens and Miami World Center? This is the first time I am hearing about these projects. Where are they?
AJ, these units will be so luxurious that only those that soak themselves in the highest level of luxury will dare purchase these luxury condos. The level of luxury is unparalleled. Dare you ask for more details?
1. Each unit has its own man-servant
2. There is a golf cart that carries you to and from your unit from the valet.
3. The parking garage is carpeted.
4. The concierge has an assistant who acts as his own personal concierge
5. All security wears Ralph Lauren Purple Label label tuxedos courtesy of the HOA (Cutbacks are a bitch, they used to wear Gucci)
6. The pool has a “blazers required” policy for all men in the pool.
7. Common area toilets are encrusted with jewels and as a result are subject to regular theft. No proble, because the HOA covers it.
The HOA fee for this luxurious unit, just dripping in luxury is $10,000/month. Only a small fee for such style, elegance, and dare I say luxury?
Mark, again agree with most comments but ratios are not constant over time just because it’s a ratio.
Hypothetical example in hypothetical country. Imagine risk free rates are say, 10% for years, then suddenly some big changes take place and rates drop to say 2%.
The ratio of rent to value will change, period. It’s very simple. Doesn’t matter if incomes change at that point or not.
Over the last 30 years risk free rates have been dropping around the world dramatically, including in the US.
Real, inflation adjusted rates have ALSO dropped.
It’s a fact.
Hope you get the point.
leaner – The Robert Shiller study of home prices in Amsterdam over 400 years would argue that things remain pretty steady over time. I think ratios are a fair indicator of where things will end up. You can have creative financing, periods of low interest rates, etc. but in the end, home prices are tied to incomes just like rents are. We saw creative financing come into play which allowed two things (1) home prices rose beyond the fundamentals and (2) people were buying more home then they could afford. Both of these effects were the result of creative financing. Well, guess what, (1) home prices are returning to the mean and (2) people are buying homes based on their income and the long term fundamentals. Things got out of whack and now we are returning to the long term fundamentals…and we may over shoot on the way down. It has happened before just never to this magnitude.
Look at Detroit. Executive home prices have way over shot on the way down to substantially below construction costs. You can buy an all brick McMansion executive home that went for around $900K for $400K.
I just don’t think were are going to just reach equilibrium here. The non-bubble markets might, or dip slightly, but the bubble markets probably will dip below. We are going to see some substantial pain this last quarter of 2008.
The credit/debt deleveraging is spreading. Car loans are affected. We are just beginning to see the credit card problems with losses. Citibank is have trouble. Credit card debt is securitized and sold off but buyers are now demanding a better return because of the heightened risk. Living a more expansive lifestyle by borrowing instead of increasing one’s income is simply unsustainable and contrary to the commercials that debt is desirable….it isn’t PRICELESS. 🙂
“home prices are tied to incomes just like rents are”
Home prices were allowed to temporarily get out of whack because of creative financing and easy credit. It was a self-perpetuating bubble based asset appreciation supposedly reducing the loan risk. Pretty silly. It is the same house, nothing changed except perhaps the the counter tops and appliances…and even those items were probably financed via a HELOC.
Rents did not go out of whack as much as home prices. In some areas, rents did deviate some, but not a lot. Rents are much more tightly tied to incomes.
Now we are seeing home purchase mortgages returning to the income based standard.
Since home prices got way out of whack but rents did not, my money is based on the rent ratio determination for home prices.
“In fact, I’m inclined to think there’s a good chance that the return on real estate will be negative, substantially negative, over the next 10 years because all booms reverse in the end.”
– Robert Shiller (7/6/2007, before the prices declined)
Question: All right. We won’t call that a forecast either. So how should people think about their home as an asset?
Answer: Avoid concentration of risks. You need a house, but I would avoid a second one – or at least avoid an outsize house. Over-investing in real estate now would be a recipe for disaster.
– Robert Shiller (7/6/2007, before the prices declined)
dlr, et al
My unit at 900 Biscayne is a B4 in a mid-level floor above the “hole”/17th level. I close in two weeks… Yikes!!!!!
Here are the +’s and -‘s as I have gathered:
(this board has been a great companion through my misery in deciding to “close or walk” – plus many here are very funny! 🙂
PLUS:
1) I bought at $410/sq foot (maybe this is not a plus 😉
2) The building is definitely high end CAT 5 product. They delivered as promised… BUT, is luxury in today’s market a differentiator? Not sure…
MINUS:
1) Total inventory today is huge (22,000 units) bringing all prices (regardless of product quality) down.
2) Real comp inventory for 900 TODAY is limited (IMHO – 900 Biscayne is a step above Marina Blue, 50 Biscayne, TMP, and even stuff over at Pace Park like 1800, Opera, Q, etc.). I think the real comp/superior product will come later with ICON, Paramount, EPIC now).
3) Add to this all the stuff in REO/Foreclosure bringing the prices down… even stuff at the beach is listed/not moving at $400+/sq.ft.
4) The economy today + lending crisis/tight lending + election year + Miami’s current employment environment.
5) As borrowing money is now harder and will get even worse, the marketability of my little 1bd condo in paradise will be reduced to qualified buyers…. will those folk want to buy a 1000 sq foot unit??? I think the 1bd end-user will be buying at $200-300/sq ft in 900…
SO: The $1M dollar question is: DID I PAY TOO MUCH TO BEGIN WITH AT $410 / sq. foot at 900 Biscayne??? Is the superior product “worth” and extra $100-150 more per sq. foot.?
Your opinions would be awesome for me to know! Thanks in advance.
If we consider your down payment out the window are you not buying in at $320 psf? Figure it could go down to $200psf meaning you could lose another $120K……However should the USD crash (recent headfake not withstanding) you might be glad to have a hard asset and 900 is a beautiful building…..toured one of the lower penthouses a couple weeks ago and it was first class…….If you get a loan for 80% (is that still possible) then you really put the lender at further risk not yourself.
Swiss,
Thanks for your reply!
I guess, on the real cost of $320psf…. and maybe I am thinking about this the wrong way, so please correct me if I am wrong: It would be true and justify closing (sans all mentioned risk), as long as I can sell it within 28 months for $485psf (this being my cost of carrying it for 28 months to breakeven/”recover” the same amount out the window if I walk). Is this correct?
Also, can you elaborate on you comment that the lender is at risk and not me with a 80% loan? Is that assuming I can just walk away from loan and be foreclosed if I take a blood bath?
Thanks again… please, others, chime it!!!
TNT….Do you have an email where I can reach you? Would love to discuss further as I am nearing a closing date as well.
TNT – I’d walk away from the 15% deposit or see if the developer will negotiate a return of more (or a lower price?). There are sooo many uncertainties and none look positive at this point. What about the HOA, will it be well run, what about units not paying their dues? Condos are like boats, all the owners are in it together and you are dependent on them to row the boat with you and in the same direction. In this environment it is every man for himself. I have witnessed in a a recently established building the desperation to put even short term renters in units (such as for weekends) just to get some cash coming in. These short term rentals really cost the rest of the people in increased maintenance, less desirable building, and lower property values. YOU may be financially stable but are YOU will to risk tying up YOUR money with the OTHER people in your building? You are dependent on them and their goodwill and honestly. Condos work well when people voluntarily comply with the condo structure and rules….once it is every man for himself it becomes chaotic and more expensive for everyone and you’ll dread going there and having to face the hassles. Is that the kind of luxury you want? BTW, you could always just rent there instead of being tied up to an illiquid asset in one of the worst markets in history.
But then again, if you don’t care about the money, time, and hassle, go ahead and close.
Renter Tom,
Thank you Sir! I like the analogy of the boat… very true. Yep… I too have compared to the cost of renting. The P/R right now for my math is at 17 (based on $2k/month rent). But I think 1bd’s will drop to $1.5k/month soon after they stay un-rented for a long time making the P/R = 22 (as 900 joins the “reality check”).
DLR: my addy is [email protected]
shoot me an email, we can chat
Any PRO-CLOSING feedback for 900 out there?
TNT:
It’s not really a $1M question. Thanks to Swiss’ input, it’s a $320K question (although due to your personal guarantee on the note, you remain – together with the lender – at risk for the $320K). And have you taken into account the value (rental or personal use) of owning it for 28 months? By “personal use” I mean the pleasure of staying there…as opposed to a hotel room. Also, even if its value continues to slide for awhile, it will come back and greatly surpass $410K in value one day….
Leaners post #272 is the most rational comment I have seen in here recently. If you are looking to live here for 5 yrs plus and not an investor in my opinion we are scraping the bottom in prices and if you wait to catch that falling knife you will never get the ideal building with the ideal view. So you might end up finding a deal for 250 per sq ft but its in an inferior building with no view etc. As far as funding availability- I just received yesterday my commitment letter from my bank for a 15 yr fixed 20% down loan-stated income stated assets.
There simply is not one positive thing about residential real estate in the Miami area, period. There is simply no hope in sight. We have years of pain ahead and many foreclosures to go…. At $400 s.f. I’d rethink that.
Maybe buy at $200 s.f.
Anecdotal evidence today about the trying to catch the falling knife theory- with pessemism rampant in this blog especially reminds me that when it is extreme might be the best time to buy-Oil traders for the past month have crashed prices from 147 per barrel to about 112 per barrel yesterday with dire predictions for oil back to 60-80 per barrel. Oil looks like it bottomed yesterday with prices up 6$ per barrel today. did anyone in here catch that knife? lol
TNT-
Have you had an attorney review your contract? You may have a case to ask for the entire deposit back depending on how its written.
Regardless I think every developer is willing to negotiate at this point; discounts, a unit on a higher floor or upgrades are not out of the question. They NEED you to close.
Good luck
Stocks, commodities, etc. trade much different than real estate. We are in for years of real price declines in the bubble markets, period. The demand for housing continues to tank in these overbuilt markets. There simply is no analogy between oil trading and buying a piece of residential real estate.
Granted the liquidity is different but you cant argue that oil was-isnt a bubble. Homes have inherent value. Homes in Miami have more value than homes in Pittsburgh for example. And homes in Miami with what i consider spectacular water views have even more value. Downtown locations have value. Its location location location. Witness todays front page New York Times story about a new downtown LA condo that sold for $2800 per sq ft. London apartments fetch over 1500 per sq ft-NYcity new condos are selling for 1200 to 1500 per sq ft San Francisco is probably 800 per sq ft- Even Boston gets 600-700 per sq ft for older downtown condos- I think even Atlanta gets 500 per Sq ft. Seattle comes in around 400 per sq foot.Outside of an deep economic recession your never going to get a good building in downtown Miami with a direct water view for 250 per sq foot.
Renter Tom, always thinkin’ with your brain and not enough thinkin’ with yer gut. I’m so sick a yer numbers and statistics and facts and evidence. My Realtor tuld me that real estate wud never fall under $400/sq foot. I think he knows a thing or two more than you boy. He’s a perfessional.
Likes I always sez, listen to the experts. Jim Cramer is an expert in that there stock market and I always listen to him. So far I’ve lost more than half my money, but we’re obviously just scrapin’ the bottom. The stock market will shoot right up pretty soon.
But back to real estate, why would Realtors lie? Why? They are tryin’ to help us out. Just tryin’ to get us a good deal. My good buddy who’s a used car salesman just got me a great deal on a 1996 Ford Explorer with a new pair of 15″ Firestone ATX tires . It’s got so many safety features. He says my family includin’ my infant son Cletus Jr. would definitely be safe in there. He threw in a free car seat.
Likes I sez, takes the deals as they come. Renter Tom, you just don’t have what it takes to buy a condo in them there Miami, Floreeda. You need some Kahonays boy! Dad gummit!
Many of the higher priced areas don’t have glut of inventory and NYC has many constraints (artificial) that prevent higher density developments. The old analogy that they aren’t building any more beach front doesn’t hold too much value when you can mow something down and build a 500 unit building in its place…effectively creating more beach front in that sense. There is no shortage in Florida housing. Prices are coming down in many places around the world with the credit spigot being turned off…
On the upside, I would think that we’re past the halfway point of price declines.
Cletus – Very funny, LOL. I just heard your Realtard® went back to her old dog washing job… LOL
Chicago Market Conditions: New Downtown Condo Sales Sink 73%.
New-home sales plummeted 73% to a record-low 685 units during the first six months of this year, compared with 2,443 units in the first half of 2007, according to a report by Chicago-based residential consulting firm Appraisal Research Counselors. The dismal results would have been even worse without the proposed 150-story Chicago Spire, which accounted for more than half the total.
How about that for an understanding of where we are headed? Chicago was not a big bubble market….
Dad gummit! Always with the smart mouth remarks boy…
If I wasn’t incapacitated because of a rollover accident in my Ford Explorer (causing me to break 200 bones) I would come over there and kick yer yankee butt. Unfortunately Cletus Jr. didn’t make it. Apparently the treads on my tires separated…just bad luck I reckon. This is just what the lord wanted for me and Cletus Jr….
If it wasn’t for my bargain luxury condo property in Miami, Floreeda, I would have given up hope at this point…. but pretty soon she’ll be appreciatin’ at 20%/year because after all Miami, Floreeda is special.
LUCAS! I THINK WE NEED A NEW POST!!!
Lucas, where are you ?
Hugo,
I agree. The Brickell Condo Index is my next post. I hope to have it up later tonight.
Lucas,
I posted a comment , supposedly no 318 but the only message I get is this
“Duplicate comment detected; it looks as though you’ve already said that!”
What do you think about areas like exclusive Brickell Key and Aqua Island? Any thoughts on if values will hold on this type of private gated island communities?
Agreed, Lucas, we need more posts and more often!
Aj, with 323 posts in this line, someone has probably already said that.
Miami 2008 -Take a look at Isola on Brickell Key. Prices are crashing and burning.
RCR – That’s because Isola doesn’t have ping pong and air hockey tables. That really is the definition of luxury and will help to keep up property values. That’s the first thing I look for when I go condo shopping!
AJ asked: “What do you know of Island Gardens and Miami World Center? This is the first time I am hearing about these projects. Where are they?”
The PROPOSED “Miami World Center” is actually “Empire World Center” and there could be a slight glitch:
http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/08/25/story5.html?ana=e_ph
Unrelated,
Thanks for clearing that piece of news.
Unrelated,
You just lost alot of your credibility…..You are wrong, there IS a miami world center. Try Miamiworldcenter.com and then tell me what you think? Empire world towers are a seperate development.
As for Island Gardens, this is a super mega yacht harbor plus 2 hotels, public gardens, etc. proposed for the western half of Watson Island. These 2 developments in themselves make the Biscayne Wall a valuable piece of property IF they ever happen!
dlr says: “You just lost alot of your credibility…..You are wrong, there IS a miami world center. Try Miamiworldcenter.com and then tell me what you think? Empire world towers are a seperate development.”
It is the SAME DEVELOPER numbnutz….
dlr – READ THIS:
“Leon Cohen, the Miami Beach developer who proposed a 93-story skyscraper in downtown Miami, faces default judgment in New York State Supreme Court over financial fraud allegations related to a former hotel redevelopment project.”
dlr,
Did you decide to close or not at 900?
Un-Related….
Correct me if I’m wrong….I thought the developers of Miami World Center were Mark Roberts/ Art Falcone…..Is Cohen involved with Roberts/ Falcone??? The 93 story scraper is on Biscayne Blvd….Miami World Center is behind the Biscayne Wall
There is only ONE 93-story “project” to get preliminary approvals. I think it is on west side of Biscayne. They have a website I think. I have never looked at it. There is a lot of “ground” involved.
Nope, youre wrong….You need to go to skyscrapercity.com and get the 411 before you spew out information. Look up Empire World Towers…these are twin 93 story towers, and these are the article you are referring to. These are directly on Biscayne, south of the Biscayne Wall.
Miami World Center is a completely different development, the biggest amount of land EVER acquired by 1 developer in Miami. You can find info about it at Miamiworldcenter.com or skyscrapercity.com….look under “Billionaire’s Plan for Park West”
This development is STILL in the works and has nothing to do with your article reference about Cohen and fraud allegations.
No more “numbnuts” comments, please.
i can’t believe that is the same condo that i seen on the preconstruction picture. it seems so good on the websibe!
I moved into the Ivy 3 weeks ago and it has been a mess. I had no hot water for almost 2 weeks. It was impossible to get in touch with maintenance or the developer. When I did maintenance was very rude and could not fix the problem until they finally had an electrician look at it. The kitchen sink was also leaking water and the water connected to the refrigerator was leaking as well and has yet to be fixed. So I had to disconnect the hose from the frig and cannot use it. This place is a lot of money and very poor service. These are things that should have been checked prior to sale.
Rachel (#338!!) I have heard the same thing over and over abt the Ivy. I loved the pics on the webs, but when I went to look for rentals on craigslist, there was one poster annoyed enough – was that you? – to post never to rent or own there.
A few days later, I had lunch with a pal, a broker, who has rented an condo there. He says he got his client a cheap rent, but it was the kind of building that would drive me crazy – bad internet access, lousy maintenance, poor service, etc.
I moved in three weeks ago and it has been hell. Water lines make loud noises at all times. We have to keep screaming at people on the phone so that they can finish everything that was promised to be finished before our move in date and was not. They schedule appointments and never show up. It has been three weeks and we still have construction people walking through our place, sometimes with out notice and or supervision, just the contractor with a key to my place and all my belongings inside. Toilets not working, electrical outlets not capped, cracked glass doors that don’t even lock. Carpets are stained in the hallways and in the elevators smell like dog urine. STAY AWAY FROM THIS PLACE! This is the worst place I have ever lived in.
The Ivy–well here is the truth as I currently live there.
The location is an eyesore. Make no mistake, this is NOT Brickell area, this is north downtown where crime grid is higher. The Ivy , Wind and soon to open Mint are the only residential buildings there. FPL trucks and lot is to the west. Across the street is parking lot for contractors and it’s FILTHY. No one cleans up–not developer, not the city. Secondly, hordes of homeless people wander through the area. Until recently several slept on the sidewalks which blocked the right of way for pedestrians. Residents complained to management and nothing happened. Finally over drinks in nearby bar, a kind police sergeant took notes. The economy has hampered our investment, imagine how much more difficult it is to sell if potential buyers drive by on third street.
Also, you hear the metrorail constantly! No matter what floor you live on. The higher the floor the less noisy. But you still hear it.
The elevators break down regularly. With 45 floors and hundreds of units and only two or three elevators operating becomes a nightmare.
The condo is pet friendly BUT the developer has yet to complete a pet park as promised the last three months in the newsletter.
Many of the problems mentioned above by other residents are resolved for the most part. The developer was finishing units as people were ready to rent.
Many people overpaid. It amazes me how few people do their homework. Many pay $1,800 for a two bedroom on high floor and I only pay $1,600 with upgrades! Of course I went through private landlord. I refused to pay a penny more for a complex that was only half complete and in “bad part” of downtown. Inside the building–units, media room, spa, game room, gym are all nice and well maintained. It’s the exterior amenities that are still awaiting construction: tennis center, pet park, children’s park and River Club ( a manicured grassy area along the river with lounge chairs). This will take another year.
Parking has become a nightmare. Many unit owners bought extra parking spaces that valet has few spots. And there is no street or public parking. They place a red boot on your car if you park outside the building. So where is someone suppose to park?
Pool area is nice but the pool deck loses sun after 3pm when sun is behind the building. A big disappointment because the later afternoon is nicer in the summer.
On the plus side–you get free wife Internet access at decent speed 6 mgs in your unit and anywhere in the building. I enjoy uninterrupted service. Earlier problems were because the developer had not paid the bill. Apparently everything is back on track.
Another plus is that you’re close to metromover and government buildings. Actually on the main street (3rd Street, outside the complex property) is public parking with meters. Many visitors to those buildings will park there to avoid paying the $5.00 or $10.00 lot fees and walk 2-3 blocks.
This place has potential but the surrounding area needs attention. The condominium is developer association and not majority unit owners so I doubt anyone will care to clean up the neighborhood.
However, I love my unit–J unit and the spectacular city view northwest–It’s better than the south view.
Hope this helps.
Christine, I mentioned before about the awful grounds surrounding the building. As per you, it will take another year before that place gets cleaned up. Your lease will be up by then. Honestly I don’t know which fool would pay $1800/month to live in Mynt, Ivy and Wind.
does anyone have information on the mint
I heard 7 weeks ago from the Ivy sales/rental office that they were going to start sales at Mint this month. I’m interested in renting a place there when the building does open. They are part of the assets that Starwood Capital acquired from Corus. Infinity was also part of the deal and I hear they’re not budging on sales prices. If Starwood is holding out for a recovery it’ll be a long draw out affair.
Buildings sucks. management sucks. everything is cheap. from the paint on the walls to the faucets…….
Because they don’t have money for employees, they change all the rules, now everything close at 9pm but the gym (24hrs)…. so you can’t relax and use the pool, pool tables, tennis table, lounge, spa, jacuzzi, steam room, or anything else but the gym after 9pm…… absurd!!!!!!!!!
the bank took the buildings from the developer………. now they are not building anything……… no tennis court, soccer field, and no kids and dog park. The marina, they don’t know……….
wtf… that is why I bought at The ivy…….. and now I can’t even use the amenities!!!!!
For the same price to buy or rent, you can find so many better buildings in Brickell…. maybe they are not as new as The IVY but I am sure you will enjoy the price you are paying to leave around these areas.
Forget about Mint…. It was suppose to be open on 01/2010, It won’t be open soon
Mint was foreclosed by bank and left untouched for many months. Recently someone bought it and the workers are back finishing it up. Who knows when it will actually be open. But I can tell you traffic pulling into the front of Ivy is terrible right now; can’t imagine what it will be like if/when Mint does open. Not to mention the back up at the Guard Gate.
The grounds area is still unfinished. The area where the tennis courts and children playground had a big FOR AUCTION sign in it. So I’m guessing those amenities will never be built. Feel bad for owners who bought expecting them.
The soccer field has become the Dog Park since the actual Dog Park was never built. So if you want to play soccer enjoy all the dog crap that is left behind on a daily basis. Not to mention it is flooded most of the time so it’s hardly ever mowed.
The elevators take forever. Toilets constantly break. Water pressure is terrible. The air conditioning breaks down about every 3 months. Not to mention on the record cold days we had where iguanas were falling out of trees… the HEAT did not work from Saturday night until Monday afternoon. My apt got down to 64 degrees. Which is pretty freezing when you have a newborn baby.
So happy I just rent. This place seems like a buyers headache.
I Just rented a unit in the Mint condo. One Bedroom for $1450.
Any updates on the building? Think that i’ll like it?
Ha ha … A little late for that question, isn’t it?
I don’t know anything about the building. Hope you enjoy your new place. I’m not as bullish on downtown Miami as a lot of others, but I can think of a lot worse things than living in downtown Miami for 6 months or a year. Good luck.
Does anyone have any updates on the Ivy condominium now in 2014?? Are they any good? I heard management tends to like to show up unannounced for “security reasons”. Scary!!