Marina Blue Penthouse

June 6, 2009

by: Lucas Lechuga

Just wanted to share some great pictures that I shot earlier today of a 2,703 square foot penthouse at Marina Blue.  All penthouse condos at Marina Blue have 20-foot ceilings.

Marina Blue penthouse kitchen

Marina Blue penthouse luxury condo

Marina Blue penthouse bedroom

Marina Blue penthouse bedroom

Marina Blue penthouse master bedroom view

Marina Blue penthouse master bedroom

Marina Blue penthouse view

Marina Blue penthouse second story

Marina Blue penthouse southern view

Marina Blue penthouse southeastern view

Marina Blue penthouse eastern view

Marina Blue penthouse floor plan

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81 responses to “Marina Blue Penthouse”

  1. Publix says:

    Looks very walkable

  2. Hugo P says:

    Lucas, can you also post the floorplan? Not sure what line it is.

    I bet you can get it anywhere and it probably helps to understand the layout better.

    Thanks

  3. Thanks Hugo! Just added it at the end.

  4. Drew says:

    Is the master shower/bath in the middle of the bedroom? No door? How is a man supposed to masturbate without his wife knowing?

  5. fred says:

    Is this a joke? The views are great but those finishes are ridiculously cheap. Only in miami…

  6. Yes, the shower/bath in the master bedroom is in the bedroom but there isn’t a glass wall to view into the bedroom from the shower or vice-versa. However, I have seen owners replace the wall with glass in order to have a view of Biscayne Bay while you’re showering.

  7. Stairs says:

    The stairs look terrible

  8. Renter Tom says:

    I like that unit…..don’t know about living in that location, but like the layout and love the views…. How much?

    Also, any word on Jade Ocean????

  9. Renter Tom,

    What do you think it’s worth in this market? Keep in mind that it’s a penthouse on the 57th floor with 2,703 square feet. I’ll then tell you the price at which it’s being offered.

    I haven’t heard anything new lately regarding Jade Ocean.

  10. elvis in miami says:

    What is the asking price?

    reminds me a lot of the units in 900 Biscayne. We looked at units there and found the finishes and overall interior materials to be average run of the mill. These pictures appear to have the same effect…a white wash look, really small kitchen (900 biscayne has a larger kitchen ++).

    I do like the loft style. This wouldn’t be desirable for my family, but I can see the layout working for many.

    We ended up renting a PH in Met1. Found the highest quality unit (2300 sq/ft+, 3bd/3bath+) out of everything we looked at (<$7500/mo). I was disgusted at the trashy units I saw in Brickell (1 nice one in 1060 Brickell, but redone by owner). I am always amazed at these $1M+ units with hollow core doors, small kitchens, and horrible closets (both space and organizer systems).

  11. elvis in miami says:

    I would bet they are asking about $1.4M. Without walking through it or knowing much about Marina Blue and also taking into account that you need to finish it (put hardwoods or tile, real paint) I would say it should be worth about $900K. The views are great, but there are better balcony choices out there. Being a PH doesn’t really mean much of anything other than you have less people on your floor and people give you the dirty/jealous eye in the elevator.

  12. Renter Tom says:

    $200/s.f. so $540,600. That’s given that it is “decorator ready”…..if $300/s.f. or above, I’d say pass….. $300/s.f. for direct ocean front, $200/s.f. for downtown, so maybe this is in between…. haven’t explored the area so that is the best I can do.

  13. Renter Tom says:

    Also, I wonder if Jade Ocean is out of $$$$$$$. The Solis has been a zombie for about a year now and is sitting there rusting on floor 11. Trump Towers look nice, but usually maybe 12 lights on in two towers (out of about 540+ units). Seriously, there is probably over $1B in units for sale here…..and they aren’t selling.

  14. Renter Tom says:

    Should clarify…..Trump Towers 540+ units is just out of towers 1 and 2, wasn’t counting tower 3 since it is finished but 100% empty….. Total of around 810+ units in all three towers.

  15. Kramer says:

    Not a corner unit and the view is more a south view than the preferable direct east view. Im guessing asking price $1.2 million. Yet probably worth more like $795,000.

  16. Kramer says:

    Because there is a chance you might lose your view when the lot one block south gets built out. I think the proposed building next door Paramount was it?- was proposed at 60 stories.

  17. Joe says:

    Man, I hate to be a negative jerk, and there’s a big difference between “designer-ready” and “done,” but the interior of that unit looks like just about any unit in a decent apartment building these days. I can’t believe those are penthouse finishes for a bathroom and kitchen.

  18. Wild Bill says:

    I would prefer a lower floor. I could stare at the 3400 square foot electronic billboard from the American Airlines Arena. Mesmerizing.
    http://digitalsignagetoday.com/slideshow.php?p=3&slideshow_id=185#imgtop

  19. Renter Tom says:

    I just don’t get it…..if you’re not working downtown, why live there? It has a great view (assuming not blocked later), but the whole urban thing isn’t appealing if you don’t work there….. By the way, watching the storms over the ocean these last few days has been cool. Seriously, the changes in weather, clouds, sky colors, lightening, has been some of the coolest in the last year….. Feek bad about the flooding in SoBe but hey why haven’t they fixed the drainage when there is the ocean on one side and the bay on the other….not like they have to build a bunch of retention ponds, just make sure the pipes go to the ocean or bay, duh.

  20. Where's the publix? says:

    No publix, no park. I wouldn’t pay a dime without a beautiful park with basketball hoops. I love hoopin’ it up!

  21. Drew says:

    Are asking prices of “decorator-ready” units substantially less than similar units that are actually “done”? They should be. “Decorator-ready” is a bunch of marketing crap. In other words, the developer is squeezing more money out of the project but telling the buyer that they’re so goddamn special and privileged to be buying a unit and that PERSONALLY CUSTOMIZING their unit is the ONLY way to go. Go ahead, lay the Brazilian hardwoods instead of the wall-to-wall berber carpet. You deserve it. Why be like everyone else?

  22. AJ says:

    Kramer,
    It is Paramount Park. It should obstruct the views of PH 1 and Line 1 but not this. But as you said, it is not a corner unit. The best PH in MB is the one directly above line 8 which is PH5.
    Yeah, not crazy bout the kitchen finishes, railings etc as others said. Looks like any other cheap building in Brickell or buildings such as Latidude on the River.

    For the price range , I am still waiting to see any other building outdoing the 900. Sure enough, Marquis, Paramount, Asia, Apogee etc have nice kitchen finishes, but they cost much more than 900.

    I love the location of MB, but more and more, I am convinced that MB is not a first class building, notwithstanding the nice industrial lobby, the sky deck and the location. After all, it all comes down to the units themselves and they are not up to par except line 8 and they are asking stupid shit amount of money for line 8 and it is not worth it.

  23. AJ says:

    …and line 8’s are asking between $480 (lowest) to $600(highest)/sf. That is crazy bull shit. In this market, even for a housing bull like me, that looks obscene and ridiculous.
    MB prices should not be more than $300/sf for all lines and maybe $350/sf for line 8 ($50 premium for being a corner with 270 degree views).
    I do not support the crazy asking prices of the units right now. They need to get corrected either by design or engineered.
    When a while ago , I predicted that the bulk sale will actually firm up the prices as the last remaining developer units are being taken off the market, people ridiculed me and they said that the bulk sale set the new price floor of $200. Now that MB is considered 94% sold, my prediction about price hardening is coming true and I am not happy about it at all. I wish the asking prices fall to reflect the reality. But looks like a lot of owners in MB have the holding capacity to create an artificial price hardening.

  24. Angel says:

    I took a long look at MB before deciding on 900 Biscayne. The only thing MB has going for it is a nice lobby and location as AJ mentioned above. I was impressed until I got to the units. Floor plans are horrible with some of the units i saw having huge hallways and tiny bedrooms, quality was severely lacking and the overall feel of MB was not that of a class A building. I then walked over to 900 and that sealed the deal for me. In my opinion there is no other building in downtown Miami or Brickell that can even be compared to 900.

  25. elvis in miami says:

    Angel, I think Epic is a runner up for 900 Biscayne. It really depends on what you are looking for. There are a lot of 2 story PH units that are decent, but not what you would expect in a PH. And who wants to climb up and down stairs!

    We were a little disappointed in the location of 900. Bad neighborhood just 1 block to the west, not really any stores/restaurants in walking distance. I did like the fact there is a people mover stop right next door.

  26. Angel,

    I agree with your assessment of 900 Biscayne Bay. It’s on such another level when compared to any other new condo building in Miami. Everything else looks second rate after viewing it. Later today, I’ll try to upload pictures of a gorgeous unit I viewed yesterday at 900 Biscayne Bay.

  27. Hobo Bobo says:

    Does anyone rent out their designer ready, unfurnished condos on a short term basis?

    As long as they have appliances, water and electricity, they would be an interesting alternative to hotels.

  28. Angel says:

    Elvis,
    I have yet to get inside Epic but have heard only good things about it. The neighborhood where 900 is located is a bit sketchy but as long as you don’t venture too far off in the wrong direction you should be fine.

    Lucas,
    Looking forward to see the pics of the 900 unit. Thanks in advance!

  29. Renter Tom says:

    AJ said: “But looks like a lot of owners in MB have the holding capacity to create an artificial price hardening.”

    – The real estate fantasy game is up….there aren’t people lined up to get one of those precious units that in in short supply, the velvet rope show is over. Long gone are the days when people were desperate to buy a unit so no matter the owners “holding capacity” it is a shitty investment, let them bleed.

  30. Angel says:

    Re: Lucas #27.

    Lucas,
    It’s funny how every realtor i spoke to when inquiring about 900 all said the same thing you mention in post #27 almost verbatim “900 is quite simply on a whole different level”. At first I thought they were all feeding me a line especially after seeing units at Axis, MB, TMP, 1800, One Miami, 50 Biscayne.., then i saw it for myself. They (including Lucas) were right. It is on a whole different level.

  31. kevin says:

    900 and Epic there very nice.

    Have you any of you guys seen the inside of Marquis? The PH in this building really defines what a PH is other than just calling it a PH because its on the top floor. Also the four lines on floors 63-65 which are double volume also have a private spa for each and roof top terrace. Then the single PH at Marquis is on floors 65-67.

    Also the kitchens and baths are very nice in Marquis.

    After closing starts how long do you guys think it will take before we’ll see lights on? Meaning people living there.

  32. kevin says:

    900 and Epic there very nice.

    Have any of you guys seen the inside of Marquis? The PH in this building really defines what a PH is other than just calling it a PH because its on the top floor. Also the four lines on floors 63-65 which are double volume also have a private spa for each and roof top terrace. Then the single PH at Marquis is on floors 65-67.

    Also the kitchens and baths are very nice in Marquis.

    After closing starts how long do you guys think it will take before we’ll see lights on? Meaning people living there.

  33. elvis in miami says:

    I haven’t seen the Marquis yet, but it sounds like it is inline with 900. What about Icon? Are there any decent units there and is the finishing apartment or livable quality?

    In regards to the 90% of other condos available in the greater Miami area, I still can’t figure out why somebody would spend hundreds of millions to create a beautiful high rise and let the finishing be so cheap. It is also very unfortunate that people actually buy this stuff, especially at such high prices.

  34. Criterion says:

    AJ,

    “Looks like any other cheap building in Brickell or buildings such as Latidude on the River. ”

    Iagree kitchen and appliances are too cheap, like 1800 ghetto!

  35. AJ says:

    I was very bullish about 900 from get go (one of the first ones). But I am really surprised at the low closing rate. I wish that building all success.

    But other than RT, no one seems to chip in on the comment I made about the stratospheric asking prices of MB units. No opinion at all?

  36. Renter Tom says:

    I have been watching activity….I just don’t see the demand even with low interest rates. I have been amazed at how slow some of these units have been moving….watching several buildings and units and as they roll over 300 days on the market and reduced prices, still nothing. If anything, there are people waiting to sell…..not buy. Makes me concerned to buy at this time.

  37. Kramer says:

    Lucas – AJ – RT

    RT mentions closing rates and notice its been over four months since Lucas has posted a New Miami Condo Closing Rates post as a lot of us are curious about closing rates for the last of the new projects especially 900 Biscayne,Met One, Infinity, Axis, Everglades, Epic and Icon. AJ you have to admit that this MB units asking price coming in at $400. per sq feet is trending down. But the spread between the bid and ask will tell us more or as RT suggests there may be no offers as price discovery is non -existent. Lets watch this unit closely. Lucas wondering if this unit is owned by the bulk buyer at MB from a few months back?

  38. Kramer says:

    Is it possible that these bulk buyers are starting to bleed a little bit?

  39. Renter Tom says:

    Kramer – Just think for a minute what has happened to Trump Towers in SIB….finished tower 3 and it is a zombie. No closing, in limbo, nada, nothing. I heard it was going to be turned into rentals, perhaps timeshares, who knows……… but to hold a tower of 270+ units ON THE BEACH tells you something, or at least tells me something. Same with Solis….looks like something that stopped in Havana 50 years ago…rusting in place.

  40. southbeachsand says:

    In this PH unit, how are they calculating the square footage of 2,703 sf? Are they using the open space of the second floor as another floor?

    Just doesn’t seem like 2,703 square feet of hard floor space.

  41. Renter Tom says:

    For example, there are 536 listings for $990K and up on realtor.com for ZIP Code 33160…..and that doesn’t include the vast majority of new construction condos…… Where are the buyers for these things???

  42. elvis in miami says:

    southbeachsand:

    good point. I looked that the attached floorplan, and doing basic math:

    bottom floor:
    40 (living+family) x 38.6 (stairs + living + bedroom) = 1544

    top floor:
    1544 – 572 (22×26) = 972

    total under AC: 2516 (still need to remove half the stairs)

    This is doing a lot of rough math in favor of the unit, not in my favor to get a lower number.

    Then again, find me a home in Miami that lives up to the advertised square footage! I looked at buying a home that was listed at 4050 sq ft, and in reality it was 3100 after measuring and confirming with the plans. Even after pointing that out to the owner, he still upheld the 4050 square footage. Come to find out in South Florida (have yet to find another market like this) you can include a portion of your garage, patios, port-de-cochere, etc.. in your square footage as there is a roof over it.

    I suspect this unit includes a portion of the open area on the second floor since you are technically paying for windows and a roof, although I don’t think there is anywhere in Florida/Miami/Miami-Dade code that allows for that.

  43. elvis in miami says:

    Renter Tom:

    Who can afford a 990K house? With banks being so restrictive on lending especially for loans that leverage the buyers income more than acceptable. Obama indicates that 2% of the wealthiest income earners in this country make >250K. Is it true that 2% of our homes in this country can be purchased by those same people? Looking on zillow.com for the top 2%, you would need to pay >1.7M. You do the math on how much you would need to afford a 1.7M house without leveraging yourself to be a major risk.

    So yeah, I don’t know who is able to afford these properties. I was under the impression South Florida has dropped 40%+ in price with no real sign of slow down. Still with the large number of ~$1M+ homes/condos one would think it hasn’t fallen enough or the homes have not adjusted their list price in line with what is selling.

  44. Renter Tom says:

    elvis – Don’t know who is gonna buy these things….there are sooo many of them and sellers have wishing prices while rentals remain half price of owning….. There is a short sale that I am looking at and will call on tomorrow I think…..I’m probably being stupid since why do I want to be stuck with a $1M property…..even if it is a “good deal”. Perhaps I should just a buy one small place in SoBe for the hell of it……

  45. Joe says:

    As RT has said, I think there are more people waiting to *sell* than waiting to buy. Some of these buildings have 50% to 75% (or more!) of the units listed for sale and/or rent, and then you go into the Miami-Dade property database and find that another 20% or more of the units are held by the developer and aren’t in the MLS.

    I think there’s a massive game of “chicken” going on right now, with no one wanting to be the first owner to blink and take a big hit. Time will tell, I guess.

  46. elvis in miami says:

    Tom, My biggest issue with buying a condo is the HOA and dues. Already the dues are high (as they include insurance), but getting stuck with a large assessment when only half the building is paying dues or insurance prices increase, is not something to look forward to.

    For example, the unit I live in in Met1 was purchased for 970K in July 2008. The owner pays about $1100/mo in HOA dues and I assume about $1600/mo in property taxes. To me, that would be a lot of money to have to shell out every month after dropping ~$1M to purchase the place.

    Oddly enough, if the market has dropped ~15-20% since then, wouldn’t the same unit be worth <$800K? I can tell you the two other same PH units are not listed for <$800K.

  47. Renter Tom says:

    I looked at one line of units in one building (the best line) and only ONE had a homestead exemption and it too was for sale for 100k’s less than what they bought if for…..they will lose a minimum of $250K and could get worse. The rest were probably investor units as half had LLC names…..and the LLC will probably just cut their losses as some only “own” that piece of real estate…such as Building X 123, LLC.

  48. Joey Myers says:

    Can ANYBODY Please tell me the TRUTH about whats going on???Are properties finally going UP?? Or are they still going DOWN???Theres a lot of Jibber Jabber going on here and I don’t know how to read it.I guess as long as RENTER TOM is still renting…………………it’s NOT TIME TO BUY YET!!!!!LOL Anybody have any thoughts on that one????

  49. elvis in miami says:

    Joey,

    Look at the case shiller reports, housing inventories, lending availability, number of foreclosures and general feel for can people afford these houses and are there enough people to afford the volume of homes (as pointed out by Renter Tom).

    I don’t see much evidence pointing towards prices going up. Personally I think we are looking at 6-9 more months of a decline (assuming a 2.5-3.5% drop/month) in overall prices (using averages, not specific properties). I base this estimate on historical averages and general affordability.

    Another indicator that I have heard from a very wealthy friend (who owns a lot of real estate in Miami) and has done so for many decades is when there are no more construction cranes, wait 6 months and then start buying. Jack Welch has also mentioned this same indicator. In downtown Miami, there are 6 construction cranes standing (I believe they are all commercial) and 5 of them are on projects that are well underway or almost done.

  50. drew299 says:

    just wait be patient relax tranqulio bide your time,

    let them pretend that the market is stabilizing……….

    just like they created the demand in the first place years ago celebs models

    ny restaurants sexy latinas for all the north east schlubs…………it was all a mirage that
    many are still stuck in…………..no one is moving to miami /dade

    the gig is up, if people could sell at cost sould anyone still be left, think tom hanks in castaway…………….

    if you dont get a steal you dont lose anything……………..just chill

  51. southbeachsand says:

    I would demand and prices ever go up?

    There has NEVER been demand for $500/sf condos downtown.

    The boom period was a complete fraud of speculators and over extenders.

    Miami does have not have a big job market to support such crazy condo prices.

    All of the 2nd home buyers from up north overseas do not buy downtown, they buy on the beach.

  52. Joey Myers says:

    Thank You BOYS….looks like there is NO RUSH to run out and BUY!!!!!

  53. Drew says:

    Southbeachsand- So are you saying that 2nd home buyers don’t want to buy in downtown Miami where they can sit on their spacious balcony and watch body parts float across Biscayne Bay?

  54. AJ says:

    Kramer,
    Large apts like these have a lower cost per sf. Thats why $400/sf may really not be a down trend.
    But the 2/2’s are asking over $400/sf and some like line 8 even over $500/sf. These are the prices from probably 2015 or 2016. These are not appropriate for the times we are living in. I am sure some of these owners asking $550/sf for line 8 did not pay even $400/sf pre-construction. So obviously these guys are still stuck in a 2005 mind frame. If I can pay 550/sf , I will go that extra step, add a little more and buy in continuum II. Why settle for MB? MB becomes attractive at a price range of $300/sf and $350 for the premium line 8. Anything over it makes no sense to me.

    Does anyone know the pre-con price per sf for a line 8 in MB? I am guessing it to be between $350-$400.

  55. Wild Bill says:

    Local governments are threatening to raise property taxes. Delinquent property owners have two years to pay. I would wait two years as a minimum to see how bad it gets. Then after those two years wait another two years for the adjustable resets. After that all is cool.

  56. Renter Tom says:

    After a long walk…….looking at new buildings (empty) older buildings from the 1990’s and a bunch of silly condo-motels (that’s right motel dump that were condo-ized and beach clubbed) I really have to ask: WHAT WERE THEY THINKING!!!!!!!

    Selling a “lifestyle” with pictures of beautiful people on speed boats when the building doesn’t even have docks! LOL People were delusional.

  57. Renter Tom says:

    Moreover, job losses will continue beyond 2009…. People need incomes to make mortgage payments. Maybe I am just being pessimistic but when I see all these beach front condos empty, I know there are problems. Cut the price in half and they will sell.

  58. Joe says:

    Forget job losses, even in the midst of Miami’s (alleged) “boom” times it didn’t have sufficient local demand for anywhere near the number of new condo units being built. Miami is a service town, not a professional town. Most of the people I know who work in Miami are living down in Kendall or somewhere like that, because they can’t afford to live right in Miami. Maybe declining r.e. prices will bring some of those folks back into the city, but I doubt it. From what I can tell, there aren’t all that many people who’ve kept their powder dry over the past few years. People either are stuck in homes they can’t sell and/or their credit is too shot to buy a new place. It’s a vicious cycle right now, I guess.

  59. Deckard says:

    I think the real concern nobody on this blog has addressed is the fact that most of the 2 and 3 bedroom units at these so-called “luxury” condos only have one parking spot. A lot of buyers are in for a very rude awakening when they find out that they and their significant other will have to share one parking spot or valet for the rest of their lives. That, or rent an unused spot from another unit owner on an ongoing basis. This seems to be an issue not given nearly enough consideration. If you live by yourself this is not an issue but if you live with someone else (and I imagine a good percentage of people living in 2 or 3 bedrooms have a roommate or significant other) this becomes an issue. Incidentally Jorge Perez is notoriously cheap and practically all his condos (500 Brickell, Icon, Plaza 1 and 2, etc) have one parking spot per unit irrespective of whether it is a 1, 2 or 3 bedroom unit. This allowed him to save mega millions on construction costs. Ask yourself how appealing this is to people?

  60. Renter Tom says:

    Deckard – Sooooooo true about the parking. I saw in the Sayan that a 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath unit had ONE parking space….ONE! But then I saw some spots with car lifts to fit two in I suppose….unless the lifts included the already allocated spots of one per unit. Then I saw Sole on the Ocean from the street……empty building but the entire parking garage, every space…has a car lift from what I could see. What a gimmick. Just imagine when the buildings are full (if ever).

  61. Renter Tom says:

    Robert Shiller’s recent article is quoted below….it is a good observation. I like how he focuses his research on they psychology behind the economics, why people make the decisions, since ultimately economics is about human behavior. So, I’m a “fan”. It took a major event for the paradigm shift from all real estate goes up so buy as big a house(s) you can and borrow as much as you can mentality…..can it shift back? Nope, not anytime soon at the very least. Heck even AJ has shut up about it. There still remains a few people in denial (can you blame them, to think otherwise would probably send them to the mental ward once they realize the financial devastation…..the real estate cult is dead). The self-reinforcing riches in real estate is over….it had a nice 5 year or so run, but it’s over. Now with all the condos that take 5 years to propose and complete are on line, the party is over and prices will have to come down to move these units. We’ve just gone through the “abandon your deposit” phase, now we need the “creditors need to realize the loss” phase so that these things can be priced to sell…

    “June 7, 2009
    ECONOMIC VIEW
    Why Home Prices May Keep Falling

    By ROBERT J. SHILLER
    HOME prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time.

    Even the federal government has projected price decreases through 2010. As a baseline, the stress tests recently performed on big banks included a total fall in housing prices of 41 percent from 2006 through 2010. Their “more adverse” forecast projected a drop of 48 percent — suggesting that important housing ratios, like price to rent, and price to construction cost — would fall to their lowest levels in 20 years.

    Such long, steady housing price declines seem to defy both common sense and the traditional laws of economics, which assume that people act rationally and that markets are efficient. Why would a sensible person watch the value of his home fall for years, only to sell for a big loss? Why not sell early in the cycle? If people acted as the efficient-market theory says they should, prices would come down right away, not gradually over years, and these cycles would be much shorter.

    But something is definitely different about real estate. Long declines do happen with some regularity. And despite the uptick last week in pending home sales and recent improvement in consumer confidence, we still appear to be in a continuing price decline.

    There are many historical examples. After the bursting of the Japanese housing bubble in 1991, land prices in Japan’s major cities fell every single year for 15 consecutive years.

    Why does this happen? One could easily believe that people are a little slower to sell their homes than, say, their stocks. But years slower?

    Several factors can explain the snail-like behavior of the real estate market. An important one is that sales of existing homes are mainly by people who are planning to buy other homes. So even if sellers think that home prices are in decline, most have no reason to hurry because they are not really leaving the market.

    Furthermore, few homeowners consider exiting the housing market for purely speculative reasons. First, many owners don’t have a speculator’s sense of urgency. And they don’t like shifting from being owners to renters, a process entailing lifestyle changes that can take years to effect.

    Among couples sharing a house, for example, any decision to sell and switch to a rental requires the assent of both partners. Even growing children, who may resent being shifted to another school district and placed in a rental apartment, are likely to have some veto power.

    In fact, most decisions to exit the market in favor of renting are not market-timing moves. Instead, they reflect the growing pressures of economic necessity. This may involve foreclosure or just difficulty paying bills, or gradual changes in opinion about how to live in an economic downturn.

    This dynamic helps to explain why, at a time of high unemployment, declines in home prices may be long-lasting and predictable.

    Imagine a young couple now renting an apartment. A few years ago, they were toying with the idea of buying a house, but seeing unemployment all around them and the turmoil in the housing market, they have changed their thinking: they have decided to remain renters. They may not revisit that decision for some years. It is settled in their minds for now.

    On the other hand, an elderly couple who during the boom were holding out against selling their home and moving to a continuing-care retirement community have decided that it’s finally the time to do so. It may take them a year or two to sort through a lifetime of belongings and prepare for the move, but they may never revisit their decision again.

    As a result, we will have a seller and no buyer, and there will be that much less demand relative to supply — and one more reason that prices may continue to fall, or stagnate, in 2010 or 2011.

    All of these people could be made to change their plans if a sharp improvement in the economy got their attention. The young couple could change their minds and decide to buy next year, and the elderly couple could decide to further postpone their selling. That would leave us with a buyer and no seller, providing an upward kick to the market price.

    For this reason, not all economists agree that home price declines are really predictable. Ray Fair, my colleague at Yale, for one, warns that any trend up or down may suddenly be reversed if there is an economic “regime change” — a shift big enough to make people change their thinking.

    But market changes that big don’t occur every day. And when they do, there is a coordination problem: people won’t all change their views about homeownership at once. Some will focus on recent price declines, which may seem to belie any improvement in the economy, reinforcing negative attitudes about the housing market.

    Even if there is a quick end to the recession, the housing market’s poor performance may linger. After the last home price boom, which ended about the time of the 1990-91 recession, home prices did not start moving upward, even incrementally, until 1997.

    Robert J. Shiller is professor of economics and finance at Yale and co-founder and chief economist of MacroMarkets LLC.”

  62. drew299 says:

    joey whats your motivation to purchase / if its for investment forget about it……if its a place to live for 20 or more years and u love the place think about it but its not stocks you may never be able to sell your unit and u have to keep on paying and paying and paying

  63. Kramer says:

    Renter Tom

    I dont understand your infatuation with Sunny Isles where u currently rent and looking to buy. Aside from the corny name the only appeal there is that it is oceanfront. Their oversupply is worse than downtown Miami’s but at least Downtown has relatively more reasonable prices. You cant sit on the beach for the rest of your life. There is absolutely nothing to do there and you are so far away from the airport and expressways. And as you keep repeating here nobody is moving into these zombies. So if you have to be on the beach why dont you move a mile south down to Bal Harbour. Bal Harbor buildings are probably the most stable HOA wise than all of Miami-Dade County. Probably get a nice re-finish older building for reasonable. A more gentrified group of owners there. Last I heard Bob and Elizabeth Dole still have a place in Bal Harbour. Plus you can walk to Bal Harbor shops and all of the retail stores and restaurants on Harding Av just south of that. Sunny Isles just turns my stomach every time I have to drive through there. That place will be a high rise ghetto in twenty years.

  64. gables says:

    Deckard,
    I agree about the parking and have griped about it for a couple of years, but there is not much to be done about lack of parking once a building is completed. But I do know that I cannot and will not buy into a place where 2 parking spaces cannot be obtained reasonably and with long term stability.

  65. Renter Tom says:

    Kramer – I’ve never been a cheerleader for SIB. It is decent, more development to come. It isn’t SoBe, it isn’t downtown, etc. The oceanfront is pretty nice. Bal Harbor is too old….way to old. You have to admit though, some pretty amazing high rise buildings though….

  66. AJ says:

    gables, one of these days, these parking spots will be worth more than the flat itself. This is horrific. Both husband and wife need to buy 2 smart cars and park them back to back if they need 2 vehicles.
    Compounding the matter is the fact that unlike in the big New York City where parking meters take a break from 7 pm to 7 am, and only charge $1/hour during the working hours, this fucking pip squeak Miami charges $1.25/hour and the meters are in effect till 2 am most places and all night in some. There is no respite. And on Miami Beach, they have this residents only rule. Public garages have raised overnight parking from $8 to $15.
    They want Miami to become like Singapore where owning a car becomes prohibitive.

    As you cannot fight the system , buy an additional spot in a building before it becomes too late. I will tell this to everyone who cares to listen. That $25,000 you will spend will be the best 25 grand you will ever spend. Buy another spot (provided of course, the developer has still some left to sell. for eg. the 1800 developer has just a mere 11 left to sell). Once they are all gone, they will be worth 30 or 40 or even more. It is sick but that will be the reality in a few years when these buildings are fully occupied.

    and Deckerd, don’t count on the free valet parking for your second car or your significant other. All free valet parking is going to be canned in a year or two. The economies just would not allow it. So either you have to rent a spot or buy one as free valet will be history soon in all buildings that are still offering it. Even in those that have free valet as of now, by 7 pm all the free valet spots are filled and a no parking/lot full sign goes up very quickly. And you cant even park on the streets at night as this Miami Mafia (city hall) will fleece you even at night by charging for parking on the street!

  67. Renter Tom says:

    I like the ZIP car concept……and now they have an app on the iPhone. Cool. Would like to try is someday if I ever find myself without a car….

  68. DJ says:

    I hear what you guys are saying about parking spots. Not all buildings are so chintzy though. In the building I’m under contract for, all units come with two assigned spots, even the 1 bedroom + den units. They also come with 6’x6′ storage spaces in the garage. The two parking spots definately went into my decision to pick this building.

    I remember a few years ago when I had my first job out of law school, the firm I was working for was doing the conversion of the Flamingo. The developer there was generous enough to sell spots to buyers at $15k each since none of the overpriced condos came with them. LOL, what a joke.

  69. Joey Myers says:

    RENTER TOM ………… ZIP car dosen’t rent BENTLEY’S or ROLLERS

  70. Richard says:

    A developer on the ocean in central Florida does all his buildings with open parking so you don’t get a designated space but those prime spots don’t sit empty for months either. It works in resort areas where owners are part timers

  71. MiamiBlue says:

    $1.1M is a steal for that property. Did I read that right?

    Sometimes when I read the posts on this blog I think the Miami locals don’t get it.

    The design ready photos are irrelevant. $100k makes it whatever you want ($1.2M total).

    I wish I could afford another one. Time will show the doubters on this one, location is absolutely critical on this property.

  72. Joe says:

    I’m not a “Miami local” in the strict sense, but what are we missing? Claiming this condo is “a steal” when there are ~30,000 other condos for sale in the market right now seems more like delusion than reality.

    And even if this particular unit is so great, valuing a condo goes far beyond the pros and cons of the particular unit in question. If a huge % of the building is rented vs. owner-occupied, which seems to be the case in every downtown condo discussed on this board, then I’d have a hard time plunking down $1 million-plus for a unit. What are the carrying costs on this place (HOA + taxes)? $50,000 per year? No, thanks.

  73. Deckard says:

    The parking issue stems more from cheapness on the part of the developers than anything else. Some buildings, like the Lexi in North Bay Village, are uncharacteristically generous and offer 2 parking spots per unit (including the 1 bedrooms) but this is the exception rather than the rule. In general, the expensive and well-located buildings on Brickell Avenue, Brickell Key and South Biscayne Boulevard feature a minimum of parking spots. 1 parking spot per unit is the norm in these buildings. For example, the Carbonell, Jade, ALL of The Related’s projects (including the over-priced Brickell Icon, etc), plus all the buildings we are discussing on this board. In the 80’s most of the condominium units on Brickell Avenue were purchased by wealthy Latin Americans who lived in Miami seasonally and having one parking spot per unit was not an issue but in today’s environment where young couples, retired couples and others are moving back to the urban core this is no longer an acceptable model. You would think the developers would wake up to this fact but the sad fact is that they were trying to save money (it increases their construction costs significantly to have to add whole floors to produce a reasonable number of parking spots) and on top of that most speculators bought condo units sight unseen. I spoke with an individual who bought a 2-bedroom unit at The Courts on Brickell Key during the frothy frenzy of 2005 and only realized it had one parking spot after he bought it. What a joke! On top of that, if you looked at the literature the developers put out describing their projects parking spots were never discussed so speculators/investors (who probably comrised 70%-80% of buyers) simply didnt care about parking spots. They put down a deposit with the intent to flip. The problem is that now when almost all sales are going either to end users or bulk buyers these issues matter more, especially to end users. How would you like to plunk down $700k on a great apartment and find out that there isnt enough parking for both you and your significant other? I think it is pathetic and makes downtown Miami a mirage where it looks like a living breathing city from the outside but the majority of the buildings have insufficient parking to support a true community. I have friends who moved into the Plaza on Brickell and they have to rent parking spots from nearby buildings to get by. This involves walking down the block, sometimes in the rain, carrying groceries, etc. and it is a huge pain. The units at the Plaza arent on the level of the other buildings I’ve mentioned, but they’re not cheap either. The Miami Commission needs to pass a law requiring developers to build 2 parkings spots per 1 bedroom, 3 parking spots per 2 bedroom, etc. This seems like a radical idea but would make downtown Miami a more viable place to live. Right now it is a place for singles and couples with one car to live.

  74. Laurent says:

    For all who want to come live at the marina blue,

    I’ve been renting my apartment there since last september and i can’t wait to leave this piece o crap building.

    The elevator are always out, when they work some workers or person of the cleaning staff block them.
    The air conditionning is always out, right now, my AC is not working for 3 days and of course it’s my fault. they made some work on it 3 days ago and since them, nothing is working, but just for the appartments, the management and common parts have their AC. so they don’t care at all.

    People from the security talk to you with no respect, if you forgot your keys, be ready to spend the night out because some of them don’t want to open to you if you have no key.

    A friend of mine whose living in the same building wanted to enjoy the non heated pool with 4 friends of his, they made him deposit 500 dollars just in case. can you imagine having to pay to have some friends visiting you?!

    the pool, the gym and all the stuff that could be fun close at 10pm. cool for a saturday night if you wanna enjoy the swimming pool.

    The trash chute is out for a month now, nobody’s doing anything.

    So i give you my advise, avoid this building, there’s so many buildings new around, you don’t need this one.

  75. JFK says:

    Hi Guys,

    Does anyone know anaything about Infinity at Brickell?? Prices, Quality of building, Etc.

    Thanks.

  76. jore noperez says:

    SOLID GOLD!!! Kramer have you heard?

  77. JFK says:

    Thanks,

    Does anyone know the latest closing prices at Infinity?

  78. aga says:

    hi guys…

    do you think that a lower unit at marina blue priced at low $200 psqf it would be a good investment in a 3 to 5 year period???, taking into account that the building is 90somthing% sold, that the people how bought the apartments close mid-2008 knowing that they are in the middle of a recession and they are closing at +- $400 psqf, so I assume that they have enough money to hold the properties, and that a bulk buyer bought 60 units at $200psft and they have to sell it at +- $250 just to break-even in 3 years, and last but not list, that 98% of the units available for sale are around $300 psqf.
    OR
    do you think that the real state market is going to fall for +5 years like the last time in 1991 that fall for 7 years????

  79. Joe says:

    aga — The general rule of thumb is that real estate recoveries take 5-7 years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is even worse. I’d be shocked if the last U.S. r.e. downturns have had anywhere near the percentage of unsold inventory that this one has, or that the Miami market, in particular, currently has.

    This thread is just about dead — people seem to only follow the last 2-3 posts/threads on this site — so if you want more feedback, I’d re-post in the Mary Brickell thread (the most recent post on the site). Good luck.

  80. […] opportunity to purchase condos at Marina Blue for as low $156 per square foot.  Additionally, the asking price for penthouse condos at Marina Blue started as low as $307 per square foot.  These bulk prices were offered to those who were able to […]

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