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Sushi Siam has been in Brickell for years, no? In the 4 amassadors, next to Porcao. Either way, good for foot traffic…and probably a big step up for Sushi Siam…great location.
Oh yeah. Good point! 🙂
Go Brickell !!!!
i think brickell is being hitted very hard with a lot of negativism by many people and media. Yes, it is true that there was a lot of overbuilt, but it is also true that is one of the top areas in all South Florida with quality business and residential life. People is aware of this, and is becoming more aware of the brickell name and the quality of the neighberhood.
Every time i mention someone in broward county that i am moving to brickell soon, they are like “ohh, wow, to brickell?? that is niceee!!”
good luck !! and see you soon eating sushi !!!
Yes. Go Brickell !
The media always focus on negative aspects…It is truee that Brickell was overbuilt but it is moving up to the hotest city in the entire south of U.S.
well…let me be the negative poster. we’re getting excited about one restaurant opening up in brickell…a mediocre one at that? come on. i ain’t gonna by a condo in brickell cuz now i can buy overpriced drinks for secretaries at blue martini and then fill their stomachs with mediocre sushi on the back end at siam. or wait a second, is it the other way around. who cares.
well plaza on brickell is a nice building with a great location. yes there are many buildings in brickell overbuilt but if you are honest those locations sucks. thats why those condos are not selling.
plaza on brickell is a prime location in brickell and will always do well. i am not sure about axis, 500 brickell avenue and other crap next to metromover. it is just a fact.
It’s good that the thought of expanding to Brickell exists at all in the minds of the execs, but what the area needs are some real restaurants and entertainment venues, not more mediocre chain establishments. Quality eats and real, live music would make people feel better about moving over the bridge. It seems like they’re trying to get the right companies to open up shop, but they’re getting the second tier options.. Blue Martini? Terrible. Sipping over priced, weak drinks with fake people… sounds like the beach.
Filling these buildings with buyers is just like trying to market a new product. Determine your audience and create a connection with them by appealing to some emotion. The beach has determined their audience and the businesses and buildings are geared toward it. If Brickell and the whole downtown area is going to be successful, it’s going to need to figure out its own audience and not try to be another version of the beach but without the sand.
I suppose it needs to start somewhere though, so anything is a good step at this point.
JOE, i agree with you that plaza at brickell is in a PRIME LOCATION and will alwasys do well, and that other condos like neo vertika, axis, etc are not the same… (they are good, but prices and demand for brickell avenue will always be higher).
But i dont agree on including 500 brickell building. That is not right now a hot spot in brickell… but wait until the icon brickell across gets done, with the viseroy hotel, wait until brickell financial centre in 700 brickell get done… that part of brickell will in the next 1 or 2 years get well connected to the far south of brickell avenue.
Also, they are close to met 1, met 2, met 3, and the hotel that now i forgot the name, but it is looking amazing, right on the corner before crossing to brickell…..
i cant leave much, everything is going under a good timming. and i am not saying this just because this post a restaurant open, but there are definitelly many signs that the area is growing huge. and blue martini is packed with people and good music !! the village is rocking brickell already and it is not fully done yet, publix and much more restaurants will finish giving the light of life in brickell.
again, go brickell !!!
Joe: In response to your comment “plaza on brickell is a prime location in brickell and will always do well. i am not sure about axis, 500 brickell avenue and other crap next to metromover. it is just a fact.”
“Crap” & “Just a fact”; where are you getting your empirical evidence to arrive at this “FACT”
The two buildings you mention all have a Brickell Avenue address to them; and the metrover only adds value to these buildings; residents in both 500 Brickell & Axis can roam around all of Brickell and Dowtown without having to pay the outrageously high amounts of parking in the City.
These buildings are NOT “crap” by any means of the imagination !!!
Plaza on Brickell in a PRIME LOCATION?????? It’s a good location at best. It’s in the business district (N of 15th) of Brickell as opposed to the residential district (S of 15th). Most importantly, it is not waterfront. I have to make this point. Everyone keeps throwing around the term “prime location” to the point that it has lost any weight that it may have otherwise carried. Pay attention. A building is not in a prime location just because it is on Brickell, near Brickell, or in downtown. Prime should refer to Brickell waterfront or downtown completely unobstructed water views and (for past Marina Blue references and those yet to come) no bums hanging out on the property. Then you can say PRIME LOCATION.
yes, sushi siam has been in brickell for years. they just sold their own commercial condo space in four ambassador.(they are still open there as tenant) i was wondering why they sold it…
now it’s all clear! they must also purchase the unit at the plaza.
they know how to do the business, restaurant and real estate.
GT3,
When it comes to commercial space I have to disagree. All that matters is how much foot traffic there is and how accessible it is to motorists. Would you say that Lincoln Road is not a PRIME LOCATION for a restaurant to be just because it is not waterfront?
“Lime Fresh Mexican Grill ” Consistently mediocre but cheap and fast with late hours. You know you have a real sustainable neighborhood with foot traffic when one of these opens up, cause ain’t nobody going to be driving to one.
heard sushi samba goes in Midtown…
Epicure considered to come as well…
lucas
using your criteria, than you would consider plaza on brickell to be a prime location for a restaurant? you might have a good lunch crowd, but i’m not too sure about dinner and weekends…especially if you’re using a lincoln road address as a basis for “prime location.”
let’s not get overworked about this. it’s not like another restaurant is coming to brickell. rather, a restaurant (a mediocre one) is moving addresses.
Quoting Joe:
” i am not sure about axis, 500 brickell avenue and other crap next to metromover. it is just a fact.”
That is the understatement of the thread. These two buildings, among others, were nothing more than afterthoughts during the heyday. I would not be the least bit surprised if the walkaway rates in these two, and neighboring projects, exceed 50%.
The only thing standing in the way of these two projects being “bank-operated” in the near future is the perceived financial strength of the developers of these two “orphan” projects!
Well I think this is gettin too negative, while I dont think sushi siam is comparable to Nobu, Bond St or Shoji its by no means bad and this is a much better location for them than the four ambassadors. I also think it is a positive thng If i had a place at the Plaza having the option to go downstairs for sushi.
Not having to do with Brickell but Il Gabbiano and Prime Blue are pretty upscale restaurants and in my opinion it has had a very positive effect in One Miami
“Blue Martini? Terrible. Sipping over priced, weak drinks with fake people… sounds like the beach. ”
haha great comment but seriously you just described 90% of Miami. as a good friend of mine says ” Miami, sunny place filled with shady people.” most people in Miami don’t know crap about good food or drinks, so businesses cater to them. as long as the idiots spend money and brag about how good the food is they will keep opening up expensive restaurants with mediocre food. Don’t get me wrong guys I love this city, but some more cultured people like those in this blog are much needed.
Lucas, I know that the original post was about a restaurant, and a mediocre restaurant at best. However, my comment was in response to this: “JOE, i agree with you that plaza at brickell is in a PRIME LOCATION and will always do well, and that other condos like neo vertika, axis, etc are not the same… (they are good, but prices and demand for brickell avenue will always be higher).” So did you think he was writing about Plaza on Brickell always doing well in the restaurant business, and that it will always do well because of this. Did you think the comparison with neo vertika and axis was in reference to their restaurants (which they don’t have)? I didn’t. I think you’re a smart guy. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt. You should do the same. C’mon, I wasn’t talking about the restaurant biz. If you would have carefully read the comment you would have noticed that I even separated residential zoning area from mixed use. Now how the heck are you gonna put a restaurant in Bristol Tower?And even if I was, Plaza on Brickell is not a prime location for a restaurant. It’s a good location. Stop throwing around this term like its Happy Days and your the Fonz. I’ll give you a few restaurants with PRIME LOCATION: Smith & Wol., Prime Blue. For future reference… “Prime” is an adjective which is defined as “best” or “first in importance.”
Raffi
you’re right – when houston’s hit #5 on miami zagats a few years back…you know something is amiss.
Are you being sarcastic?
no. i love houston’s (thursday tortilla soup day is top notch) but it should not be #5 on any self respecting city’s top restaurant list.
ok just making sure, cause seriously houstons is so overpriced for what they give you.
…as for “prime location” in brickell…i would say bristol tower/santa maria would be ‘prime’. as for the new condos…we won’t know what really is ‘prime’ until the entire area is developed, moved into, and starts bustling (this may be 10 yrs from now?…and IF it doesn’t massively bust which may take longer than 10 yrs).
BUT…if it ever does get there – and they clean up all the garbage and derelicts, etc…put in proper street signs, better lighting, etc…then if there’s a real good pricing correction to the point where it makes sense to own something there…it could make for a real nice area to live – more a pedstrian area w/nice shops, etc. again, i think it will take a long time for this to happen. in the meantime, it’s a work in progress. if/when there’s a nice price break…real buyers come in to buy and live there…it could be really nice (esp after crackheads, etc are gone).
The Plaza is a good location, but I don’t know about calling it “prime”… One thing that hurts Brickell is that places are still somewhat spread out. Other than Brickell Village (which is still somewhat empty), you have to walk pretty far to go from one good place to another.
Downtown Miami still has a long way to go, but I believe it will always offer higher density and variety of good places within a smaller area. This will make it much more pedestrian friendly.
I consider a building like One Miami to be in a “prime” location. It’s waterfront, has two high-end restaurants at ground level, is linked to the Miami Intercontinental Hotel & Spa, close to the metro mover, and will soon benefit from the completion of the Met and Epic projects.
Well guys calm down: 500 brickell is just off the highway and philip starck building across the street is on the highway. it is just dirty to walk there.
just my 2 cents. Well maybe plaza on brickell is not waterfront but my friend is just right there and if you are on higher floor you have bay view. and it is just beautiful location. Next to Jade, water, brickell village and brickell key.
Do not get mad if i say my opinion. 500 brickell and philip starck buildings are not bad just i would not live there cause it is just highway behind them.
If you walk there at night you will see what i am talking about
I’d be happier if they were putting a Fuddruckers or Anthony’s Coal Fired Pizza there instead. I am “culturally sophisticated” when it comes to hamburgers and pizza.
Siam lease was most likely signed a year ago with out any prior knowledge of a declining real estate market.
I will be opening up a burger joint on Brickell. My best selling burger will be called the Manhattan South. Includes half pound spam, sprinkled with a touch of mortgage fraud spice, topped off with a fresh foreclosure bun. My restaurant will not have a cover charge, but will have a prepayment penalty. Foreigners welcome.
hahahahahahahahhahahaha the Manhattan South although this makes no sense it was pretty funny
Manhattan South….so true. It shoule be a double burger as things are double bad!
i really do not know guys what are u talking about?
things so bad? well brickell is one of the most beautiful area in the USA to live and if you have there home long term u will be fine.
the richest people in south Florida live in brickell or around the brickell area. i think u should move those burger joints downtown miami or park west.
Brickell was always Brickell and will always stay Brickell.
Like Park Avenue in New York, never goes down.
Sounds like a winner, Bill.
There’s lots of “smart money” hungrily sitting on the sidelines waiting to eat those burgers.
Joe,
It is called reality! Can’t believe you compared Brickell to Park Avenue.
No comparison, but Brickell is a very nice area, yes a little over built and some what dead of Commerce for tourist or locals. But there are a couple of places to go in the area.. One of them that just opened 2 months ago, and is a complete hit with locals os medium to high status is Segafredo Brickell in 14 and Miami AVe. Its a similar version of that in the more famous area of Lincoln Rd. But its more night club appearance is defenitely a people magnet, as there are no good places to hang out in Brickell. Blue Martini is horrible… Try Segafredo, and Spazio Nero its Disco, in the back, youll enjoy it.. Wether to talk business during the day or relax and have drinks with friends and collegues at night.. Thurs, Fri is really full so try to get there early. BUt sat. its just perfect
A Whole Foods Market would be nice near Brickell. Their website says:
Miami
Whole Foods Market
2nd Ave & 2nd Street
Miami, FL
44,871 sq. ft.
Opening date to be announced.
Chris,
the whole foods market is expected to open in the ground floor of MET 3 building…. is it really going to get built ??? i am starting to think it might not….
i really want a Wholefoods in brickell too.
i heard that the publix in mary brickell village, will be an all Greenwise publix, like a gourmet organic market…. Can someone confirm me this ???
if you’re thinking that brickell is a nice area and comparable to other top neighborhoods in other big cities…sorry, but you’re just wrong.
brickell doesn’t hold a candle to certain stretches of manhattan, the gold coast/old town in chicago, north end in boston, san fran or any other top city in the us. i usually avoid ad hominem attackes, but really, to suggest otherwise is to admit that you’re full of bs or deluded. either way, you’re an idiot.
don’t expect that whole foods/movie theatre at the met project any time soon.
btw, can someone explain to me how any residenc at 500 with a unit that has an interior window will not lose their sanity? the light from the damn halo in the center of the building is blinding from afar. i can only imagine what it’s like up close. then again, considering how cliche the project is, there probably won’t be a lot of people living there any time soon.
i did not say that Park Avenue is exact as Brickell.
All I am saying that what is Park Avenue in New York, that is Brickell in Miami or maybe there is a better one?
Miami has no better Avenue than Brickell and compared to other cities is not bad. It is not always the worst in Miami.
Yes it is overbuilt but Lucas is showing here that good building are doing just fine.
I like Miami a lot – but mostly for the beach areas. Downtown may provide some nice views from some of its highrises, but other than that, it’s not a place I have any interest in living in the near future.
If Miami is going to get into the same league as other big cities (New York, Chicago, etc.) as far as the downtown areas go, it’s going to have to make some big changes. It can be done – New York City was bum city the first time I visited it. Now, it’s virtually bum-free, much cleaner, and much safer.
But downtown Miami still has a “no-man’s land” feel to it late at night. If there is anything that could be called the “Manhattan” of Miami, it would have to be South Beach. That’s the only place where you could live and have tons of stuff within walking distance and not be the only person walking the streets at night.
Brickell is much nicer than downtown proper, but it still has a ways to go before it will be comparable to the higher-end residential areas in other big cities. I’m not saying I’d rather live in these other cities – just that downtown Miami is lacking a lot of things that make those other places desirable. It will eventually get there – I just don’t think it’s going to be very soon.
THE best way to fill up the brickell area is to give enough quality incentives for large corporate businesses to bring a chunk of work to miami’s brickell area. right now its all latin american banking – if they can diversify and bring in “smart” jobs from the biotech/pharma/more domestic banking/trading/etc jobs. maybe provide tiered tax breaks or something along those lines.
every major city has an true industry (seattle/cali/n. VA has tech, ny has everything, tx has oil)…miami has tourism which is garbage jobs that pay close to zero. they bring in big money jobs through larger incentives…bring some scientists, etc to the area.
right now on brickell, 1 mil gets you ALOT of condo. in NY, cali, seattle even austin now…you don’t get this much for the money. the problem w/the whole area is not necessarily the condos…it’s the way the city is being run…compared to most big cities, it’s run like crap! how do you have juvenile detention centers/homeless/crackhead houses RIGHT smack dap in your tourist areas (bayside, etc)? if you clean it up and bring in the jobs, the problems w/the overdevelopment can dissipate sooner than it’s present way – which is praying some dumb foreigners pay up for it. it could be a 5 yr project instead of a 15 yr deal
I think this string of posts gets the award for the worst grammar/spelling/usage/punctuation. Its hard to take someon’e argument seriously when they can’t even put together a coherant sentence.
Lucas, I think you should hire an editor to review all posts.
i can only speak for myself…but i just punch away and move on. i don’t triple check and ask others read my post before i submit it.
funny a clown would make a comment like this and then type: “take someon’e argument “. please go and buy a life, hemmingway.
Dr. Drew,
What is “someon’e” ??? I never heard of that word.
It is hard to take your argument seriously when you do not know how to write.
Thank you.
True story: While in Brickell, I took a dump on the street corner last night (I looked around and saw a bunch of other dudes doing it so I figured it was cool.) When I came back this morning, there was a tiny white condo building growing out of it. I shall call it the Plaza on Brickell.
News flash: Downtown and Brickell have nothing to offer any self respecting human being that enjoys getting out for a stroll in their neighborhood to take in the sights, grab a bite, or otherwise enjoy life. The whole area has a terrible layout, a pathetic list of ‘things to do,’ and unless you prefer to be confined to your car to get around (walking may or may not be equal to certain death) and the hassles that come with parking, you’re better off staying in your super luxe newly constructed highrise condo and thinking of new ways to waste time… such as counting how many crackheads take a dump on your sidewalk in a given timeframe.
I was specifically referring to “Joe”, “Mike” and “Damian”. I can’t even understand what they are trying to convey.
When I first heard a sushi restaurant was moving to Brickell I quickly typed a response. My hands were still shaking from the excitement I could not type correctly. I’m sure others were so excited they could not spell or put together proper sentences. Please forgive everyone.
Steve – did you eat at PF Changs before taking that dump? You really should submit that to the European Fecal Standards and Measurement. I don’t know how many Kurics that is, but sounds like a world record to me.
That was a pretty funny South Park episode
I see so many mixed opinions here, why is there so much negativity against Brickell? And then why are we talking about and comparing Brickell to NYC where there is an economy and a demand for human capital that pays high salaries that are in accordance with the cost of living in NYC? Price per SqFt they are not similar and I don’t think they should be compared.
The Miami Real Estate market will pick up, I dont care what argument you make I think everyone here is clear that there is value, this is a beautiful city and there is demand for real estate in Miami. However while overdevelopment have spurred so much growth (look at Miami 10 years ago) we are stuck with 6-7 years worth of inventory. We should be focusing more on what are the good buildings to buy in when the market picks up again and the differences of areas.
We all talk about the cost of renting vs. Owning, but seriously we should have a poll to see how many people here actually believe we are going to get to a point where owning is going to be cheaper than renting? Seriously how many people think that we are going to get to the levels that a one bedroom apartment that rents for 1200-1400 (Nice one bedroom Apt in Brickell) is going to sell for $120,000-$140,000?
The 2 bedrooms at Plaza are selling for around 380,000-460,000 and a lot of people are closing and anyone who has visited the building recently can see the traffic we see during the day. I assume they should rent for somewhere in the 2000-2400 a month range, do people here think that they will drop to $190,000 so after your mortgage its going to be cheaper to own than rent?
Alejandro Diaz-Bazan —
Sure renting can become more expensive than buying. It happens when people dont price in future appreciation and expect to be conpensated for the “work” of having a rental.
alejandro
i think the problem is that when they were touting the brickell condos during the presale age, the aim was “young professionals.” problem is, there aren’t (1) many young professionals in miami (club promoters are not professionals); and (2) many jobs that pay the scratch necessary to afford a 300k one bedroom in brickell. with that being the case…why would someone ever buy a second home in brickell?
Exactly. The pre-construction craze created a shadow/fictional market. Now there is way too much inventory for (a) end users, (b) renters, and (c) 2nd home owners, and it will take years to correct. And yes, the term “Young Professional” is a worn-out marketing cliche, especially in Miami. A city only can attract the “young professionals” if it has the applicable job market–and we don’t have much of it down here right now.
People should look at the current facts and not fall into the flowery, la-la land viewpoint of “Go Brickell!” and “Miami is a beautiful city!” and “We live in paradise!” and “Manhattan South! Yipee!” What insightful analysis…instead, look at the data and you’ll see the terrible state of the real estate market down here.
Drew – exactly.
I just got back from Westside Los Angeles. The limited foreclosures in prime spots in West Hollywood, Miracle Mile, Beverly Grove etc are around $380 a sq ft for a decent town house that needs a lick of paint and a general bit of upkeep. Prime pitches are around $700.
Given the salaries and industry of individuals working/living in these areas, it makes me very bearish on Miami and Miami Beach prices.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/03/05/its-all-about-the-glass-jaw/
Relevance?
i think tomlinson posted this in the wrong blog? either way…i’ll take the bait and it’s simple:
this is under the “about” tab on the site:
“Welcome to the world’s first full-service conservative Internet broadcast network!”
and they rip on obama in the article … what a surprise.
Drew is correct.
The job market in Miami does not support enough people to fill thousands of $300,000 1 bedrooms all over the CBD.
Miami is a small job/office market compared to the New Yorks, Chicagos, LA’s, and Atlanta’s of the world.
yes but in NYC 1 bdr (same quality like in Miami) without garage would cost you 1 mil plus 500$ per month for garage space.
yes you have better job in NYC that pays more but your costs of living are higher.
Nowhere is a paradise. For sure Miami is not one. But if you earn for example 65k per year it is more affordable for you to buy 300k 1 bder condo in miami than 1 mil $ 1 bdr condo in NYC.
I guess the point is Joe that in New York (and London, HK to an extent, West L.A. etc) there is just a quantum difference in earnings power and it is by a lot of people, not just a small group. As one example, you have an entire Wall Street cadre where anyone from VP level and above in a front or middle office function is making $250k and upwards total comp per year.
Am sure you can add law etc into the mix there.
And I don’t think it’s fair to include a garage cost, not at all comparable cities or requirements for getting around.
What do you think a fair price for rent is for a 1b/1b rental in the Plaza on Brickell?
Miguel,
What type of view? What size one bedroom?
Prices are going to crash even in the cities with a great job base. Los Angeles experienced one of the worst price declines back in the early 90’s, and this time around, it will be worse. Almost all the bubble area prices (Vegas, LA, San Diego, Boston, etc) are out of line with their fundamentals by a similar proportion.
The reason Miami will be worse than most of those areas, as far as prices declining, is because of the huge growing oversupply. I don’t think any other city has the oversupply that Miami has. That is by far the biggest issue.
Julian,
i agree w/you 100%. there’s no comparison in earnings power – even middleman/sales/etc jobs can give you 150-250k…and these are not quite skilled positions. nowhere is the job market like nyc – having said this, when lived there (95-99), things still seemed overpriced and you could get a 2 bd apt in grammercy park for 500-600k. and that was absurd then. what COULD happen right now is a big spike in unemployment which could quickly send someone’s income from 200-300k to zero…in a market which is not producing jobs unless you’re a top notch specialist in something. banks are all laying off and going to lay off…the nyc landscape in changing somewhat quickly. some hedge funds are also closing shop due to poor performance.
the only thing i can say about the miami and/or other real estate mkts…is some unforseen bailout. something that’s not being contemplated mixed w/a massive amount of negativity in regards to real estate. if there is a big level drop in prices this yr…it will create for some nice opportunities, IF you can still borrow. it will be nothing like it was past few yrs though. this is not likely the way the gvmt is run (a bunch of jawboning monkeys driving the bus off the cliff)
Some WCI news:
WCI Communities Inc, which builds high-end homes, on Tuesday said it expected to record a pre-tax, fourth-quarter loss in the range of $410 million to $460 million partly due to the hard-hit Florida housing market:
http://tinyurl.com/ynrc8g
Also:
Home buyer successfully sues builder WCI over poor work
Cyrus
You’re right about NYC. The real estate drama will hit NYC when the banks REALLY start laying off people (which is already happening, BTW).
Fortunately, for Miami, we are 3 years into our downturn. First in, first out, no?
“If I am always comparing myself with others, I will either suffer from ego or jealousy.” – ancient wise man
What’s the point of comparing NYC real estate trends/prices with Miami? They’re two completely different cities that are years apart from ever being “similar”, so any comparisons are pointless. We would have a much more useful discussion if comparing Miami to Monte Carlo (stunning, luxurious residential condos that are empty nearly year-round, except when the wealthy absentee owners decide to holiday for a month or two).
Drew
Help me out here…so you say it is “pointless” to compare Miami to NYC…”you say.”
So because “you say,” …therefore Miami cannot be compared to NYC?
Interesting.
I’ve been selling real estate for 15 years on Miami Beach tell me exactly how you know that “…Miami condos that are empty nearly year-round…).
Please let me know where you gleaned that info/report from.
Drew -“The Oceans” in Sunny Isles. 25th December to 1st January. 40% of units never had a light on.
I think that’s what you mean, eh….! Just the facts.
BFG – LA, yes. The Valley, yes. But not prime Westside. Same today. Falls in prices yes, but not of the 20-40% seen in the Valley/Inland Empire (even worse).
But again, no point comparing this to Miami Beach – because there’s real income generated and principal homes in West L.A. and 1% real estate taxes.
Again the realtors will not respond to the challenge – if Miami Beach is so different – why is there EIGHT FLIPPING YEARS (no pun intended) of inventory at key price points. Nor will they provide info as to transaction levels historically compared to today.
Until some facts like these are presented, we can all shout about NYC, LA, London, Miami Beach, Monaco, Geneva until we are blue in the face.
One thing I will agree with Kevin on is first in first out. But I think that could still mean many years of stagnation in prices and volumes. And I don’t believe the first in status has finished yet.
oh and CYRUS – I agree. There’s something coming. Moral or not. Moral hazard or not. But the death spiral is going to be end. I just don’t believe the US will end up like Japan. I watched the Japanese real estate market crash and I don’t see the same thing. It won’t be pretty but my hunch is that if Price/Income has been 2.6x in the last 30 years and it peaked (from memory at 4x), it ends up at 3x (another 10%) and sits there.
drew,
someone had mentioned nyc vs miami so i elaborated on it.
you may not fully agree w/a miami vs nyc comparison (and i will say that in almost every way they do NOT compare)…but your comparison of miami w/monte carlo … c’mon …
i’m not sure if i you can compare anywhere in the world w/monte carlo … monte carlo/monaco doesn’t even compare w/anywhere in the cote d’azur.
JULIAN,
i still believe that miami needs to bring in REAL industry in order to fill up the condos. again, the condos are very nice but not at the existing income levels – they’re catering to foreigners right now which is a band aid. if they can offer incentives to bring in real jobs (higher paying jobs)…
Cyrus, I was being facetious with my comparison to Monte Carlo. My point is, given the way things are headed, the city is going to look more like Monte Carlo (physically, demographically) than other cities, particularly NYC.
Kevin, you are free to make your comparisons all you want. Its just my opinion, or, more appropriately, my prediction, that the majority of buildings will have significant occupancy problems for a long time. Read The Herald today about the foreign buyers…that’s great for developers and the lenders of those condos, but what real benefit does the community get out of a German citizen buying a $1M condo downtown that he visits for a month in January? I’d much rather see REAL, ACTUAL RESIDENTS occupying these buildings downtown. Filling the units up with people who live in them full-time will spark the area much more than by selling off a bunch of units to foreign “2nd home buyers” who are merely providing piecemeal relief to Jorge Perez, his investors and his construction lender. And to attain the real, actual residents, prices need to drop considerably, since almost everyone is still priced out at this point.
You may have been selling real estate for 15 yrs here, but I guarantee you’ve never witnessed what is about to take place in the condo market (esp downtown, Brickell) within the next 2 yrs, i.e. Julian’s reference to “lights off” in Sunny Isles. Re unoccupied buildings, its bad enough now…I can’t wait to see what it wll look like when all the projects are finally completed. Sure, I agree that your territory Miami Beach is different, but please look at it from a broad, general persepective.
I still think it is delusional to think, in any real estate market, that foreigners especially temporary vacation residents, will have any meaningful impact. It’s absolutely foolish analysis. London’s ‘foreigners’ are either working here (main homes) or so rich it doesn’t matter (insurance homes). I assure you, those people are not thinking about buying condos in Brickell (I am actually laughing at the fact that anyone would think otherwise)
Remember when the US started to slow, the word “decoupling” was used to describe it as a US problem. My friends there is no decoupling, Europe and Asia are slowing rapidly/facing liquidity issues/inflation issues of their own.
If you really want to play games rather than think this through, go buy HK real estate instead, the HKD is still pegged to the USD and low interest rates in the US, low loans to deposit ratios at domestic HK banks and lots of liquidty will make that happen over there. I’d get out quick at the end though…
Drew – Miami Beach IS NOT different. The numbers simply do not show that. Any difference is merely presentation.
And of course in that article
The parts from OBSTACLES onwards tells you the reality for the vast majority of purchasers anyway. I know I am not alone in incorporating tax costs into my analysis of whether to buy a condo. It’s all about cash and cashflow. It makes an enormous difference to the value proposition
julian’s right. no wealthy foreign purchaser is going to look at brickell as a desireable location to purchase a second home.
i love how realtors are overplaying the foreign purchase angle. come on…there’s several years supply in all parts of miami and the maintenance costs are absurd. add to that the facts that the recent wealth acquired in south america is attributable to the commodities boom (another bubble that’s about to go kaboom) and europe and asia’s linkage to the us economy, i think it’s safe to say that the foreign purchaser will at the end of the day make a negligible impact on the massive overhang of inventory.
I was just yesterday looking at a studio at 1060 brickell avenue for myself. I will be moving from venezuela to miami and going to UM to do an MBA. This building and the plaza at brickell both look really nice. I dont know why this forum is giving so much negative talks about brickell. I think is the best area to live and i will buy there soon. Any recommendation on which of the 2 will be a better buy, which will hold better value for the future?
thank you very much, this forum is very educative.
Carlos – I think you hit the nail on the head. You are coming to work/study. Presumably you will be busy. I quite like the stretch around the four seasons away from downtown. Sterile and boring is a view many share but for an urban-ish area it’s not bad.
The point people are making is that you aren’t coming here as a foreigner looking for a bolt hole, vacation home, part-time residence.
Brickell has little appeal for that category compared to the beach etc (or even appeal on its own merits for that type of purchaser)
More Realtor® speak I am afraid: “first in, first out”? I disagree. All indication are “first in” cause the longest run up of the bubble and the largest inventory. The reality is “first in, last out” for miami. The more I study the housing issue (speculation/fraud in FL, CA, NV, AZ and rust belt MI, IN, OH) the more I am concerned….the speculation fraud is the most dangerous.
Also, I heard the interview and the statement about the “currency arbitrage play” to buy now. Smarter money would be to just arbitrage the currency now and wait to make the purchase. Why couple those two things together? (1) Convert currency then (2) Buy at the bottom.
….i think the sooner the gvmt lets the r/e mkt deflate, the sooner it will be a better situation for a real buyer to step in. i think the gvmt is TOTALLY screwing up the free markets. they are only free when they go up?!?! bunch of morons are making it worse! if they stop screwing w/the mkts, by now, we would’ve deflated (YES, there would be some serious pain….as there eventually WILL be)…but it will be shorter lived and by now we’d be buying condos at prices that make sense!
they’re forcing a slow leak. if someone removes 100k from your bank over night, you would freak…so they’re taking out the 100k over a 5 yr span so you don’t freak. this is destroying things in the country (destroying our currency, causing almost hyperflation in every single commodity, etc). leave it to us to F everyone up…once again.
JULIAN,
one thing you forgot to mention about hong kong: MASSIVE surplus!
Buyer Tom: That is an excellent point.
No need for a foreign buyer to jump into a purchase just because of the weak dollar. The best play would be just as you said: get into dollars now to lock in the favorable exchange, then into real estate when prices drop further (which they certainly will).
Although many are saying the dollar may drop even further (which is certainly possible), I think it is oversold in relation to the Euro. I’m not buying into the decoupling theory – at least as it pertains to Europe and Latin America. They will have their own economic problems soon enough (and some countries already do). I have a friend from Ireland who is in real estate development (in both Ireland and other European countries). The stories he is telling me sound just like the U.S. when this downturn started.
Buyer Tom
Realtor speak? Believe me, I don’t need to “speak” –I speak the truth.
Buy Tom-
When do YOU think the bottom of the market will occur?
BTW–Exactly what makes you so qualified to “predict?”
I didn’t predict anything as noted from the “?” after my comment.
You can disagree, but that doesn’t make what you OR I say “right.”
I bet you hate when I level the playing field like that….Infuriating, huh?
These Realtors, besides being unrealistically rosy about the South Fla real estate market, sure can be nasty when someone else offers a counter-assessment of the market.
Take it easy Mr. Tomlinson…just because your commissions have surely taken a nose-dive recently, you don’t need to be so aggressive in your replies. Jesus.
Drew,
Kevin and I are good friends and I can definitely say that his commissions haven’t taken a nose-dive recently. In fact, this is going to be by far his best year ever. His January income in 2008 already surpassed his income for all of 2007.
Drew
“Surely?”
“Nose-dive?”
Sorry, Drew.
Infuriating, huh?
🙂
Hi Kevin – Didn’t mean to offend a Realtor®, but I do think the logic of first-in, first-out is more optimistic than warranted. Based on the huge inventory surpluses in Miami, it would seem that Miami had been overbuilding for a longer time so it had a bigger run up. I am just astounded at the level of inventory available, in fact I find it fascinating how it occurred. I think we are around the half way point in this down cycle. 2008 and 2009 will continue in nominal dollar price declines. After that, I’d hazard a guess that nominal prices will be flat for a good while resulting in real price declines. Smart money is to wait unless it is a trophy property that you must have and you have so much money it doesn’t matter. I do believe later this year we will see a big drop in prices as the those struggling to keep their head above water just give up…they’ve fought the good fight but it’ll be time to just let go and accept their fate…….. It is good to know that you’ve been selling home for 15 years so that is better than most Realtors® with probably 50% of the residential real estate people having to go back to dog grooming, hair dressing, or whatever profession there were in previously. There really aren’t a lot of great Realtors® out there so congrats on making it a long term profession. I’m sure your knowledge is pretty darn good about the local markets…as long as you didn’t getting caught in the flipping game that flopped I’m sure you’ll be fine with the others dropping out. I have visited your website too and I like it. Anyway I’m in the market to buy, but can’t put a value on things in this market. Good luck.
Tom
I’d have to agree with almost everything that you have said. But, the difference, as we go forward, is that some markets will appreciate, while others continue to tank.
Kevin – I just read your website regarding luxury properties on South Beach not declining. I personally don’t think those will be spared, they may not go down as much percentage wise, but I’m sure they will go down. Maybe someone out their has examples of such declines?
“…some markets will appreciate…”
In South Florida in 2008? In real dollar terms? Really? Are you talking about a market of just a few square blocks or something? I do think the ultra high end markets are getting dinged now too. They were late to the wake, but they’re there now.
Tom
In prime properties like Continuum, Murano at Portofino, and Il Villaggio there have been no declines.
Interesting fact: Continuum I increased an average of $75 psf from 2006 to 2007.
I think things will be disastrous in downtown Miami, Biscayne corridor, and Brickell — disastrous–but those buildings will not just go away…what’s the worst thing that can happen?
Values drop? Ok. Then they drop until buyers re-enter the market, whenever that is.
This will not, I repeat, will not be the end of the world.
The Brickell market went through the same drama in 1983 and re-bounded–and it will again.
If my prediction that the market will eventually heal is considered by some to be “Realtor speak,” than SoBe it. 😉
FYI: Google: “Miami Condo Auctions” and read the article from the NY Times from 1983. That will give you some perspective on what downtown Miami, Biscayne Corridor, and Brickell will go through as a part of the “healing process” from overbuilding.
Fair?
Sorry Tom
I just sold a $6M unit (not penthouse) at Apogee that the original buyer paid $5M for. Sorry.
The thing that I find irritating and disconcerting is that no-one denies transactions are taking place, and the agents with good market share will still do well.
Kevin – so I will ask again the question I have posed to the realtor community. How do you explain the 8 years of inventory at various key price points in Miami Beach, as shown by Lucas.
It’s all very well to congratulate yourself on your success (I shorted UBS at EUR70) so whoopy-doo for us, but what we’re all trying to understand is the broader picture, and naming 3 buildings in the most super-prime area of Miami Beach where there are a few hundred units total doesn’t do that for us.
Incidentally on Continuum I, care to provide the details of each transaction so that we can see that the increase was like-for-like and not skewed. What is it so far in Q1 2008 vs Q1 2007, like for like.
Julian–
Interesting point.
Have you taken Lucas’ “8 years of inventory” statement for fact?
I’ll make a fair deal with you: Let’s vet Lucas’ Miami Beach inventory number here first, then I will do what you ask.
We have to make sure everything is kosher from the starting point.
Also, is the fact that Lucas’ information is NEGATIVE make it more believable as fact?
Could you have made assumptions on INCORRECT information regardless of whether positive or negative?
Kevin – I’d also like to congratulate you on your outstanding website. One of the best real estate site’s I’ve ever seen in terms of design, useability, and comprehensiveness.
Obviously, I disagree with your assessment of Miami Beach’s shorter-term health. I think prices will decline quite a bit over the next several years, even as nice as Miami Beach is. I know anecdotal evidence (your Apogee story) suggests otherwise, but the inventory data looks bleak. I just don’t see anyway for prices to go anywhere but down when you’ve got such a massive supply of condos (sales vs inventory).
Again – superb job with your site. I can see why guys like you and Lucas are doing well while others are quitting the industry altogether.
I’m not congratualating myself on anything a previous commenter was incorrectly assuming that my income has gone down.
I won’t go with popular opinion. The fact is my income is greater than ever, because I work harder and am simply better than most agents.
If you consider that statement as “congratulating” myself…than have at it.
Kevin
I am relying on those with direct access to the MLS providing accurate information, just like I am making an assumption that the price of a stock on my Bloomberg screen is the price of the stock on the particular exchange.
The point as to whether analysis of these numbers is positive or negative in conclusion is moot.
If there is evidence that the information provided by Lucas is wrong (and I have asked many times on this blog about it), then good, I can make a new analysis of the data.
To date though I have no evidence to suggest the data is wrong.
If you can provide me with the raw data from the MLS or a declaration that Lucas’s numbers are incorrect to the point of serious error, then I, for one, would be delighted!
BFG –
It is not my intention to hi-jack this post. Thank you for your compliment.
It’s ok to disagree but contrary to your opinion of my andecdotal info, six LARGE sales have happened in the last two weeks at Apogee.
BFG, the numbers, as a whole, do look bleak.
My point is that you cannot, anymore, make Miami ONE real estate market. It is not.
Interestingly, do you know that the ultra-high end condos are faring beautifully as opposed to the ultra-high end homes in Miami Beach?
Some facts are bad (and I’m willing to spout them) and some are not so bad.
Julain
That’s not fair to me to make me have to go back and check those numbers that YOU deemed factual/accurate.
My offer still stands.
Kevin – when did those Apogee condos go under contract? Just recently, or were these buyers who already had large deposits down on them (other than the flip you mentioned)?
I think it is important to emphasize the difference between a recent new sale and the closing of an old, boom-era sale. Clearly not the same thing.
These are flips. I am talking about NEW buyers coming in and purchasing from the original owners.
To all the commenters here:
Why is it that shitty facts are allowed to stand as “fact” and ones that may not be “so shitty” need to be vetted and challenged and debated?
There is no one that knows MORE about Miami Beach condo stats than me.
Kind of a double standard, here.
Off to appointments, imagine that!
kevin
the difference lies, and i don’t think this is anything revolutionary, in the extremely high end of listings versus the rest of the listings. sales are happening in the former (or at least the perception of it) while the latter is just getting worse. i don’t think geography has much to do with it (e.g., on the beach, we’ll see high end condos going, while in the gables we’ll see high end houses moving). if it’s in rarefied air, there is still a market to be had.
Well Kevin since I don’t have access to the raw data, it’s deadlock. The readers of the blog will have to rely on the data presented by Lucas.
If no-one can refute that, this means there are 8 years of inventory at certain price points in Miami Beach.
I appreciate you are busy and not able or willing to provide these answers, but I am probably not the only who would like the following questions answered.
1. What was the annual run rate of Miami Beach sales per year in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 etc
2. The Continuum question as above
3. The raw MLS data. I would get someone to re-run the numbers.
J–
You don’t think geography has ANYTHING to do with it.
In the new real estate market, we are getting back to basics:
Number one rule of real estate: Location, Location, Location
Number two rule: Supply/demand.
If you think that location hasn’t “much to do with” the real estate market –this is a debate that truly is futile, at least for me.
An extraordinary commentary, extraordinary.
Reminds me of some posts made in your name which were apparently not so made. Kevin – we’re all having a serious and sensible debate here.
All we are trying to do is establish facts and analyse them. If you have all the stats, why not publish them. And if they were to show “only” 4 years inventory and not 8, why on earth wouldn’t you state that fact.
———-
Why is it that shitty facts are allowed to stand as “fact” and ones that may not be “so shitty” need to be vetted and challenged and debated?
There is no one that knows MORE about Miami Beach condo stats than me.
Kind of a double standard, here.
—————
Julian
> “or willing to”
That’s not fair.
I’m not willing to go back and verify all Lucas’ info and then do ANOTHER analysis off of that.
Like I said….a few blocks still doing well at most. I would hazard to guess not all units did as well in those buildings and would bet that big one is a trophy property. You have been able to cherry pick some nice transactions, I’m sure through hard work. But the fundamentals remain, price-to-incomes, price-to-rents, etc. A few uber wealthy …probably not native to the Miami market… is not a comprehensive gauge of what is doing on. I have been looking at some properties and can point out $100K, $200K, etc. price drops just on the few I have been watching….and they are nice, most brand new, right on the beach units. I looked online at the Il Villaggio and know it has strategic location for the long term, but at those prices I don’t know when you look at the real rate of return on a non-liquid asset, unless you get that much enjoyment out of the shelter part of it, which is subjective. I for one am going to stay on the buyer’s sidelines and wait for the right time, in the meantime I am going to rent….and am waiting on the reply from the Realtor® regarding the lease terms.
We’ll do the analysis. I think there are enough qualified people on this blog to do it.
We just need the data, which only someone with direct access to the MLS can provide.
An Excel spreadsheet on the download section of here or your website is all we would need!
Pretty please.
Tom
I think staying on the sidelines is a great approach.
With regard to your other comments, it’s not fair that I offer you the info you request and then I get a comment of “cherry picking.”
One other last comment: “few uber wealthy.”
FEW? FEW?
Buyer Tom
How do you get that registered “R” in the circle.
I’ve always wanted to know how to do that in the comments.
Kevin – I didn’t mean “cherry picking” in a bad way, if you can select high end clients, then that really is great to be in such a position. But I’m sure you know of other transactions that didn’t get that 20% flip profit. By uber wealth, I consider that the $100M+ investment net worth crowd. I’m still in the upper single digit M’s so I’m not gonna throw down $1M and watch it go down 20%. The Uber Wealthy are different….some friends of mine have their own $10M jet etc. which is nice, and they can throw down $1M if they want, but not me…. Glad you got some sales in this market. I have spoken to a few Realtors® regarding leasing and they sound pretty darn desperate for the commission on a lease! Maybe the dog grooming business it bad now too?
Here is the sales data so far for Apogee. Of course, there are surely unrecorded deeds that haven’t shown up yet. But just for posterity, I’m putting these numbers up. These come from the public records.
I will publicly declare that there will be lower-priced sales than these in the coming years. This is a top-notch building in a top-notch location. But I don’t believe any building is immune from the downturn.
Apogee – Closed Sales
Unit Date Sales Price
—————————————
503 1/16/08 2,025,000
701 1/18/08 3,494,000
704 1/17/08 4,028,571
502 1/18/08 2,400,000
501 1/24/08 4,115,000
504 1/24/08 4,715,000
603 1/25/08 1,953,857
703 1/25/08 2,100,000
801 1/28/08 3,500,000
802 1/29/08 2,185,714
804 2/1/08 3,942,857
602 1/30/08 2,014,286
601 1/29/08 3,814,286
901 1/31/08 3,771,429
1003 2/1/08 2,357,143
803 2/8/08 2,185,714
1102 2/13/08 2,442,857
1401 2/15/08 4,285,714
1204 2/14/08 4,914,714
1402 2/19/08 2,914,286
902 2/20/08 2,185,714
702 1/30/08 2,100,000
1202 2/25/08 2,528,571
1004 2/25/08 5,228,571
1201 2/26/08 3,772,143
1404 2/25/08 5,056,143
On a Mac, you hold the “alt/option” key and type “R”….. Yes, Realtor® was being used to make fun of all those nuts that jumped into real estate business over the last 5 years who thought they could put a sign in the ground and make money.
That didn’t post as clearly as I wanted. Let’s try again:
Unit – Date – Sales Price
503 – 1/16/08 – 2,025,000
701 – 1/18/08 – 3,494,000
704 – 1/17/08 – 4,028,571
502 – 1/18/08 – 2,400,000
501 – 1/24/08 – 4,115,000
504 – 1/24/08 – 4,715,000
603 – 1/25/08 – 1,953,857
703 – 1/25/08 – 2,100,000
801 – 1/28/08 – 3,500,000
802 – 1/29/08 – 2,185,714
804 – 2/1/08 – 3,942,857
602 – 1/30/08 – 2,014,286
601 – 1/29/08 – 3,814,286
901 – 1/31/08 – 3,771,429
1003 – 2/1/08 – 2,357,143
803 – 2/8/08 – 2,185,714
1102 – 2/13/08 – 2,442,857
1401 – 2/15/08 – 4,285,714
1204 – 2/14/08 – 4,914,714
1402 – 2/19/08 – 2,914,286
902 – 2/20/08 – 2,185,714
702 – 1/30/08 – 2,100,000
1202 – 2/25/08 – 2,528,571
1004 – 2/25/08 – 5,228,571
1201 – 2/26/08 – 3,772,143
1404 – 2/25/08 – 5,056,143
I’m not being arrogant but that is who I sell to; the uber-wealthy.
My point is that now the market is bifurcating.
It is not one real estate market anymore.
If you were to ask: “Kevin, where can I get the BEST deal in Miami Beach?” I would respond: “in the $750K to $1.5M price range, condos AND homes!” That price range is in the total crapper.
BFG
Interesting. Cool. Let’s see what happens.
I’m no cheerleader and no one, neither you or I, have a crystal ball.
Kevin – Hey, I have no problem with pointing out your accomplishments. If you recall that lady realtor from NYC on the NY roundtable discussion, she was claiming that prices were doing just fine in that Uber market. That was in January. Well, that’s not the case now……. even Uber properties are getting dinged….not in the crapper, but dinged. The Uber wealthy market can prop up all the Uber markets in the world. Rents are interesting…..I can’t believe some of the rent deals that are out there right now. It’s silly. I’d pay for the full year all up front but am afraid the owner will go under, so will just pay each month.
I don’t need a crystal ball to state that home prices in Florida will drop in nominal terms in 2008, probably by double digits.
Meant….”The Uber wealthy market can’t prop up….”
Hey Kevin – that made me laugh.
Good for you, so anecdotally (or perhaps empirically too) the data which suggests the price points of $500-$1m having 8 years of inventory fits well with your assessment on this end of the market.
I think that’s what everyone wanted to know! I.e. mainstream Miami Beach is, in your language, in the “total crapper” (and by mainstream I make an ASSUMPTION that this price range covers mostly a lot of on the beach 1-3 bedrooms).
Thanks for the info – very helpful, honestly.
Aren’t properties transferred/subject to the lease even in foreclosure?
I don’t know as this isn’t my “niche.”
Julian
Again, not a cheerleader here.
I gotcha Julian! That was anecdotal and you ACCEPTED it because it was negative.
; )
See what I mean?
Er, no Kevin, I merely matched the data as presented by Lucas with your anecdotes (you’ll notice I did refer to that in my post).
Since “There is no one that knows MORE about Miami Beach condo stats than me.”, I could take the data (which we haven’t had refuted) and your anecdotes and make an analysis.
In my world they call it mosaic theory.
Make all the analysis you like
Mosaic theory? Too deep for me!
You win!
Infuriating aren’t I?
This was fun.
Not really infuriating!
It’s like playing with my 6 year old nephew!
What about the sushi?
You know a lot of commentors come to blogs and try to “match wits” with each other.
It’s kind of funny watching “the gang” lob barbs trying to “out debate” each other.
This was fun for an afternoon. Thankfully, I’ll get back to my career now.
Buyer Tom – it’s just raw fish. Phrases framed in ” ” is so much more manly.
Amen.
Oh, great, a sushi-hater too?
” “
Can someone explain to me the difference between Realtor-Associates and the business owners?
I get that most realtors are self-employed but given most listings are on the MLS, why would, for a example, a buyer’s agent, not just set up on their own?
Is this a NAR thing?
I think it is important to remember that home purchases are financed purchases. Very few people can just pay cash without financing, esp. in the $500K+ market. Kevin is dealing in the non-finance-dependent market.
The financial market is a mess w.r.t. mortgages. Without financing, 95%+ couldn’t buy a home. Just look at foreign countries where mortgage aren’t really available….people take years to build a home. Banks are now more conservative than before….and I can’t blame them. This will affect the entire market whether one finances their purchase or not. Add to that the huge over supply, and the effects will be huge. We’re only about half-way through…..
Buyer Tom – It’s a fair point. I had a meeting with one of the UK’s top 10 commercial property investors (own money, not a fund) this week. Apart from general bearishness, his overriding point was that the ability to transact in the property market is driven by financing – even he couldn’t do multi hundred million pound deals without financing. Property has always required leverage, and always will. The point driven home was that 75c in the dollar isn’t any good if you can’t finance it!
kevin
you’re an idiot. i never said location has nothing to do with it. if it’s high end in miami, 99.95% chance that the location is phenomenal to begin with. my point is that it’s not limited to the beach, e.g., gables estates.
Lucas,
Bayview and higher floor.
c’mon guys, lets not get personal. everyone has a certain way they look at things…and this is what makes a market. JULIAN, you’re a trader (as i am)…not everyone thinks of real estate (or other markets) the way you and i may. again, this is what makes a market. i was off by 2 yrs in the real estate market (as far as the selloff)…and i would say though things have certainly slowed down, pricing hasn’t adjusted to the current environment because of the cognitive dissonance associated w/markets. once acceptance hits, then there can be a price correction in which some buyers will start stepping in, and so on and so on…..and some (in this case buildings/property) will never come back. so we wait for the pricing correction which will come with lots of pain.
the difference between equities/futures/debt (or whatever you trade) is that you can open a newspaper and see a bid and ask. real estate is not transparent which makes loss acceptance much more difficult for the human mind to accept. this is the stage we are at (again, some will be able to hold up better than most).
….i will say this. whatever your take is…at least there’s some intelligent conversation on the blog …which is what brings most of us back daily – good job LUCAS…
Cyrus
You’re pretty spot on.
Real estate is emotional. Further the reason why prices haven’t yet adjusted to where they need to be is that the sellers, in reality, have had the ability to hold on (for what I don’t know).
I have, in fact, replied to many of my seller-clients that their property may be worth less and less as time goes by.
Lucas,
Did you know I was an idiot? I’d rather be called an idiot than ugly.
I’m deep.
Hey Kevin – I read some more of your blog. Nicely done. I did see under listings quite a few with 10% discounts for Miami Beach condos. Didn’t check them all nor the few new hot buildings, but the declines are there for Miami Beach. Also, you may be doing well right now, and I’m sure hard work is involved, but you should probably make less confrontation posts since other people do read these things and it seems sorta unprofessional. That’s just my 2 cents for whatever that’s worth….esp. if its in U.S. Dollars! Best wishes.
P.S. If you have any good South Beach rentals on the beach with great views, let me know. I would prefer 2 br around $3K, would like to stay under $4K.
Buyer Tom-
I appreciate your interest, sincerely.
Since I’ve been doing this for so long, I have a reputation for “saying it like it is.” Some people may be taken back, but ALL of my clients appreciate my candor.
Whether what I say is popular or not, negative or positive, my clients can always COUNT on hearing it straight. I don’t wrap what I say in a lot of PC jargon– don’t have time for that.
Anyways, thanks
K
Buyer Tom
You don’t need to fact check because I have never said “there have been NO price adjustments on the beach.”
You know, after taking a closer look at the Apogee sale prices, all but a few are under $1000 sq ft with several in the $600-700 range (the units are huge).
Comparing to asking prices in other South Pointe condos, the Apogee sale prices are well below the asking price/sq ft in those buildings. Seems to me that the Apogee’s sale prices are not helping the South Beach condo market out. I’m not going to say that these are “good deals”, but comparatively, Apogee makes other buildings look overpriced.
I realize these are the pre-construction prices (not sure what year they started selling them), but most of these sales are at the very bottom of the price range that the Apogee advertised.
I have been travelling for a week and have not been able to check this blog. Lots of good info and discussions in this thread.
Sales of a few high end condos does not constitute a trend. IT is like basing the health of the auto industry by sales of just Ferrari and Lamborghini. Also, I suspect that some of the high end sales may be by insiders or friends of builders who are buying a condo as part of a bigger business deal. You never know how much money is being handed back to the buyers under the table. I am not suggesting fraud or illegal activity…what i am suggesting is that the sale of a high end condo may be part of a bigger deal or an understanding between the parties.
About foreigners bailing out the real estate market, that is just plain BS. That assumes that foreign buyers are a bunch of dummies who dont know what real estate is worth. From my experience, foreign buyers are much more savvy than the local buyers.
I am keeping my eyes on sobe condos. Prices are still super high (double the 2003 prices). I think you will see prices being to come down in the near future if the job market turns ugly. Until now, the job market was pretty stable, but now we are seeing some ugliless (63K jobs lost in Feb). A lot of big profitable multi national corps have stopped hiring and are relying on attritution to thin the ranks. Nothing is more destabilizing than the prospect of losign ones job. When people feel the heat, the condo prices will drop…there will be lots of fire sales.
I am predicting that the job loss is going to impact the condo prices more than the credit crunch and over supply. When you dont have a job, the question of buying a condo does not even come up. If you are afraid of losing your job, you may try to get rid of your condo or continue renting.
anyways, I am watching the first housing bubble of my adult life with great interest. I own a house
Hi, I really enjoy reading this blog. Good information.
Can anybody tell me what where the pre-construction prices for a one bedroom Penthouse (41st. floor) apartment at The Plaza on Brickell?
Thanks!
I love the Brickell Vibe, but I think it’s still somewhat an investment gamble. The public goes where there are shops and movement and certainly MBV has accomplished that. It is the restaurants that have blown up the area to a destination place. PF Chang, Blu Martini and Grimpas are great places to add to the already great restaurants there. However the condos themselves are not so successful. Now there is a glut of empty high priced condos. Many of the, with the exception of the MET where offering world class dinning experiences. Most of these can’t get a small cafe to commit to a space, let alone a world class restaurant. The MET has done some great marketing by getting not just one but two restaurants in DB Moderne and Manny’s Steakhouse. These will rock.
These buildings need to have a built in ambient to sell. They need to have great spas, great clubs, maybe a movie theater, but most of all great dinning facilities. It is the compliment of all these things that will make a 5ooK condo sell. Smart developers should be meeting with top restaurant owners, both local and national, and offering them deals. But most sre too greedy to lower their SQ. FT. cost to hook a restaurant name. So as you see the posted paper signs that say “Restaurant Retail Space Available” you will understand that you can’t fish without bait.
I have found for the most part the comments on the Plaza and Brickell in generally to be very interesting and valid. Miami will never be a NY or London or Hong Kong but it will always be a destination for Latin America and as their economies grow so will Brickell, in fact Brickell is the De Facto downtown of Miami. Now for values, no one knows where the bottom is, it could be now or it could be at sometime in the future, it is like trying to time the stock market, do that and you will lose. There is too much money on the sidelines to let Miami fail, if one big building goes back to the bank there is enough money up north to purchase the whole building, turn it into a REIT, rent out all the units and then when the time is right do a condo conversion. What is certain is that many developments were shelved because of the market change, that in itself will create a shortage at some point in the future when? I suspect around 2011/2012. Once the permits have expired it will take a long time to pull the permits again and get started, and that means delivey some two years from that point. Values? I can remember in the eighties when you could buy a beach front condo on Collins for just over twenty grand, how much today? What we have today are buildings with spectacular views,and if you are on Brickell you have the amenities as well. Pick the best value for money and that would be at the Plaza, it was built to a price point.
“Now for values, no one knows where the bottom is, it could be now or it could be at sometime in the future, it is like trying to time the stock market, do that and you will lose.”
Sorry APOINTOFVIEW but you are simply wrong. The real estate market is nothing like the stock market where stocks are actively traded and are liquid. The bottom is not here and when it does get here it will be around for a very long time and will not “bounce back”. We are in for a decade of malaise if not longer.
It finally opened!
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