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Interesting WSJ quote about the new Fannie Mae condo lending standards….purgatory sounds about right…
“These buildings are just in purgatory. This new requirement is the straw that’s going to break the back of a lot of projects,” said Norman Radow, an Atlanta real-estate investor who works with lenders to rescue distressed condo complexes. … It’s a weight being tied to a drowning industry.”
In terms of common areas, this is one of the less-attractive new buildings I’ve seen. The “1800 Club” logo combined with the 80’s checkerboard lobby isn’t working batman.
My prediction for this thread is 5+ posts from AJ showering praise on 1800 club.
That checkerboard pattern is hideous.
Lucas,
Great to see some of 1800 club. certainly a place i would consider living in over the long term. just not quite the neighborhood i am looking at, nothing wrong with the area just not my preferred zip code.
took a look see at some building list prices, and starting to see big and small cracks developing. solaris has really plummeted in list value-not sure if they are short sales or legitimate, but you are looking at nearly 50% haircut to a year ago. even plaza is starting to crack a little bit with 2B creeping under $300k-again not sure how valid the list price is there either. just an observation for now.
One comment: CHEAP
The long hallways made me think rental.
Kramer said “why would I buy there knowing that I cant re-sell to a prospective buyer who needs a mortgage. You need an exit strategy of some sort unless u plan on dying there”
So Kramer, tell me where are you going to buy? Where are you going to park your money? Each and every 50 odd new buildings are blacklisted by the banks and do not meet the Fannie Freddie guidelines. Even most of the old and established buildings in Miami and SOBE do not confirm to the new guidelines. SFH is your only option left for you.
I challenge anyone to show me one new building among the 50+ new buildings in the greater downtown that confirms to the new F & F guidelines.
……none? Yeah I thought so.
Even with US economy in the toilet, the World still wants to buy our T bills. It is because there is no other better alternative.
Same goes here. If you don’t want to buy in these buildings because aunt Fannie has a hissy fit, then don’t. Where else are you going to go?
All these guidelines are temporary or knee jerk reactions. They will all be eased out in the next two years. Even with the economy getting out of the hole in the next two years, these restrictions will also become meaningless.
So cash buyers chickening out and using Fannie as an excuse and comforting themselves for not taking that final step, don’t. You will only be doing a disservice to yourself.
None of these guys criticizing the decor do not have enough money to move into 1800 in the first place. Read #7. Where are the hall ways? Just goes to show the bullshit posters.
Anyway, I am not impressed with the quality of pictures. May be Lucas reduced the quality to reduce the KB size of the file for easy download. Pics don’t tell anything here. If you are serious about buying, go there and take a look.
The stars of 1800 Club are the views, the gym, pool, location and the Pace Park. If you want to excuse yourself because you don’t like a checker board decor we do not want you in our building in the first place. Prissy bitches like you cause all kinds of problems for our tightly controlled budget and our association. Both Jan and Feb numbers are out and we are spending less than we are earning leaving us in surplus. And we want to keep it that way.
Get lost to any building where you like the decor and pay up to 75 cents/sf or more in maintenance. We are very happy with our decor and the 42 cent maintenance.
AJ, when a decorator like your takes chances with an 80’s “Don’t Come Around Here No More” music video motif, he/she is asking to be judged. So we obliged. We judged. Verdict: It’s ugly. Deal.
OK, sorry I called you Prissy Bitches. But most of you are the first ones to scream murder if your maintenance goes up because of unnecessary upkeep needed for a lot of pretentious decor.
I will agree. 1800 lobby is not as spectacular compared to some of the new buildings made during the same period. I have seen all of them before zeroing on 1800. Ask Samir, he will tell you. I made him go with me to every building old and new in SOBE and Miami before deciding on 1800. If I am shallow like some people here and fell for the decor of a building or how many cute chicks I come across in the lobby, I would have been somewhere else and kicking myself now. Thank god I saw future and the future is the brightest for 1800.
As I said before, we spent less than we charged by maintenance in Jan and Feb. At this rate, next year either our maintenance will fall under 40 cents (unheard of) or we will have some rainy day fund for unforeseen circumstances.
We have a board and enthusiastic residents who thinks all the time how to control costs and run an efficient building. I could have posted a link with so much inside info regarding the same but it also has some proprietary information which I cannot share. But I thank god that I am in 1800 and not some other building. I saw this before hand by going beyond the razzle dazzle and I got rewarded for that. I am sharing that experience with those on this blog. If you want to benefit from it, go for it. If you want to ridicule it, suit yourself.
Time to call for a band of AJ. He is abusive and offensive.
Moreover, lending standards will get tougher for buildings where more defaults occur and short sales….such as the buildings already on the blacklists. Better to not play in this game AJ then have to choose among 50 losers at these prices.
RT,
It is called tough love. Sometimes brats like you need it.
And for the second part of your response, we all know that you belong to the NATO (No Action, Talk Only). So you will never buy anything ever neither in these “50 losers” nor even in “5 winners”. Why are you even on this blog?
Just live off the interest on your CD’s and enjoy your early bird specials.
LOL #14 AJ. No action? Too funny. I have bought and/or sold more real estate in one year then you have your entire life! I have been watching one line of units in one building compete for the low price….it has taken off in the last 45 days….interesting, but none have sold. I would buy one of their decorator ready units for $300/s.f. too only because of the private elevator lobby.
I’ll believe it when I get the invite for the house warming party.
“Even with US economy in the toilet, the World still wants to buy our T bills. It is because there is no other better alternative.
Same goes here. If you don’t want to buy in these buildings because aunt Fannie has a hissy fit, then don’t. Where else are you going to go?
So cash buyers chickening out and using Fannie as an excuse and comforting themselves for not taking that final step, don’t. You will only be doing a disservice to yourself.”
__
You are right AJ.
They lack the courage of their convictions, because they have no convictions.
The “I’ll wait until $300 psqf” becomes $200 becomes “I’ll wait until they are giving them away like in the 80s” becomes “It has a negative net worth, so they have to pay ME to buy that liability.”
Or could it be simpler as you ask, are they just chicken?
“None of these guys criticizing the decor do not have enough money to move into 1800 in the first place… Just goes to show the bullshit posters.
Prissy bitches like you cause all kinds of problems for our tightly controlled budget and our association.
Get lost ”
__
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
A condominium is a business relationship with all your neighbors. Those that cannot pay or don’t adhere to the rules will make your investment drop in value. Simply no way to educate or control 400 other people in your business relationship.
AJ
“we all know that you belong to the NATO (No Action, Talk Only). So you will never buy anything ever neither in these “50 losers” nor even in “5 winners”. Why are you even on this blog?
Just live off the interest on your CD’s and enjoy your early bird specials.”
___
Well that WAS uncalled for.
I think you really should apologize.
And I even agreed with you today, in an earlier post I wrote:
“Face it you are a bitter renter.
AJ is right, you’ll be kicking yourself for not buying when you had a great opportunity. Alas, life is short, and you are wasting it by waiting for this imaginary condo give-away. You ask about wasted opportunities.
Now I ask you, how many opportunities will past you by while you engage in this, and I quote, “hobby?” AJ has more than a point here.”
So, it’s not as if I do not see your point AJ, but attacking someone’s Early bird special is wrong, just plain wrong.
Lucas thank you for all the valuable info. you have been posting.I enjoy this blog very much. The best thing lately is that ACE has left the building.I hated the childish nonsense that was going on.Most of the Bloggers on here are knowledgable people and are amazing contributors.I like Renter Toms comments .He seems like a very informed contributor.Thank you again and keep the GOOD WORK up.
Will somebody please tell Muir the whole pro-AJ thing is not funny or amusing. It’s painful.
Why the heck is 1800 club so nasty?
I agree, muir, have you gone mad?
It’s not a horrible building but nothing special either.
No thanks,
No, it’s my way of protesting ACEs’ expulsion.
The best thing going for this forum.
(by the way all my links were real, and not from the Onion either. Though neither RT nor the Gables thought much of it, today was a game changer. And, as predicted, hardly a whisper outside of Financial publications. The FED is monetizing the debt (or Quantitative easement if you prefer sophistication,) and what is the lead in all newscasts except PBS? AIG.
Something even I knew months ago (no, not the details, I’m just a regular schmuck, it was just obvious and was predicted just about everywhere I went on-line.)
As I said yesterday elsewhere, the news is more like the Onion every day, except they couldn’t make this stuff up.
Lastly, RT cries about Obama this and that, on a day he should have been screaming at the top of his mind, he pretends wisdom by being nonchalant, but in reality just communicates his ignorance.
And you ask about madness, ha!)
but anyways, it was kind of you to ask.
Thank you.
I was at 1800 yesterday and I didn’t really like it. The 2br unit that has the direct bay view is really cookie cutter. I will admit though that the view was amazing. Also the decor is pretty bad and so are the hallways. I don’t get why AJ is always going apeshit over this building. How can you say that it’s stupid off someone to take the decor of a building into consideration when buying a unit? That’s not being shallow, that’s buying something you like.
I admire AJ,
despite all the evidence around him, he is resolute in his positive outlook. Some of you gloom and doom guys could learn a lot from AJ. It doesn’t matter what the na-sayers or statistics have to say about the economy or miami condo market, AJ’s faith in his investments are unshakeable. You got to give it to the guy, he believes his BS soo much it makes you want to believe for him. We need more of this kind of spirit in America today.
Keep on fighting the good fight AJ. Bagdad Bob has nothing on you.
here’s a hint, don’t be so quick to loose your temper and call people names, it makes you look desperate.
makes me think,
I too like and admire AJ.
And here’s 2 things that AJ has been talking about.
1. U.S. Economy: Housing Starts Unexpectedly Jumpedhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agLqzpq2jKIM&refer=home
2. March 18, SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The U.S. dollar plunged against major rivals Wednesday afternoon —-> AJ’s = FOREIGN BUYERS!!
All I can say is that thank God we have someone of AJs integrity and wisdom and I too give my heartfelt “Keep on fighting the good fight AJ!”
Muir – I understand what the Fed is doing….large scale. Monetizing the debt in an indirect way….will evaluate. Obviously the goal is NOT to actually monetize the debt per se but to bring down long term rates esp w.r.t. mortgages. The first phase was “we’ll keep interest rates low as long as necessary which may be for a long while” which helped, but the fear of the second half of the hurricane made him do the not only are we keeping rates low but we’re going to keep long term rates low too….. It is a concern. Will evaluate. Miami Condos aren’t the answer though….
Juan,
OK, I trust that you saw the building. I will also respect that you did not like the decor. That is your personal choice. At least you are not one of the armchair commentators like the others who just spit crap with out knowing, learning or refusing to even know about a building.
Many are making amateur home buying mistakes. If you are guilty of signing a contract mesmerized by a buxom blonde sales girl, you are equally dumb to buy a condo looking at the lobby.
I did not buy 1800 pre con. You could have then accused me of “you did not know what you were buying and now you are stuck with it”. I bought it after I saw all the lobbies of all the buildings including 1800 and comparing. But I also saw what is behind the thin veneer of a glitzy lobby in many a building.
What exactly do you need a lobby for everyday living? 95% of the time you don’t even walk through it to get to your flat. You park in the garage and take an elevator up. Unless you want to impress your date, there is no need to even take them through the lobby.
I asked these basic questions about all the lobbies I saw. Is it comfortable, beautiful, functional, non wasteful and easy to maintain. 1800 I checked yes to all. Glitzy, it is not. The problem with glitzy and expansive lobbies is that it takes more janitorial and maintenance crews to keep it up in top shape. Every additional employee you have will cost you between a penny or 2 cents extra on your maintenance bill depending on the salary, insurance, health care and other benefits. Because we are such a tight ship, we could cut up to 6 employees since last year with absolutely no difference in the services provided. The resultant savings – almost no increase in maintenance.
Once you look past the lobby, ask yourself is this flat good for everyday living.
lets talk about a few things you look for in a good building and a good flat:
1. Layout, Balconies and Views. I gave top marks to the split floor plan, generous 6′ wide balconies and stupendous views.
2. Appliances. They are GE profile and de la casa kitchens. Higher end than average but not really flashy like the 900 biscayne appliances. But that is just fine for my purpose.
3. Pool. Unlike many useless pools in many buildings which are nothing more than decorations, this pool is extremely functional, delightful and always maintained at a balmy 87 degrees so that you can even swim in Jan when the air temp is 65.
4. Gym. Gym is the best I have seen in all buildings. Equipment wise, some gyms have more stuff than this one. But nothing matches its all glass windows overlooking Pace Park and its myriad activities and the incredible bay view.
5. Steam room, sauna and whirl pool. Nothing special but the building has all 3 of them and they are all functional and easily maintainable.
6. Common rooms and party room. I just want one and this has a nice enough party room attached to an out door veranda where you can have a party from 100 peeps indoor to 400 peeps including veranda. Simple and functional the way I like it. Some buildings have multiple common rooms. All lying unused but costing a ton in maintenance and electric bills.
7. Movie Theater. Does not have one. I never wanted a movie theater in a building. It is a gimmick and total waste and adds cents per sf to maintenance. My home theater system is as good if not better and I can watch a movie naked if I want to in my own flat.
8. Garage. Ahh, my favourite subject. You can have an early heart attack being in a boxed car. Have you heard the horror stories of the garages of Plaza at Brickell and One Miami?
The 1800 garage is the best laid out in any building that I know. Wide, easy to get in and out spaces. Wide roads or ramps to avoid collisions. Well ventilated and lit. Easy to get in and out with a total of 3 gates – 2 gates of two way traffic and 1 exclusive exit gate. This is unlike a single gate in many buildings causing multiple headaches. Never a line to get in and out. And also the garage exit is onto a non busy 18th street giving another big plus.
9. A very active intelligent and responsible board and owners who are proud of their building and work hard to keep it in top form at a very reasonable cost. You cant even pay for such services.
10. And the best part, the location and the Pace Park. I will not even go there as I have written volumes on these two subjects. Let us just leave it at that.
And those who are wondering why I am so passionate about my building, ask that question to yourself. Why are you not passionate about your building? May be you hate it and it is time to move. Give 1800 a try and You will fall in love not just with the building or the neighborhood but with life itself.
Wild Bill – I prefer the condo as a lifeboat analogy where everyone needs to row in the same direction but because of competing goals they don’t and in some with the new Fannie Mae lending restrictions they will revert to cannibalism.
AJ – If you love Pace Park then get off the darn computer and go jogging or something!
– On a macro level, credit is continuing to be pulled from the system on a massive scale….this will continue throughout 2009. Deflation will fight the fed at every turn as the fed and govt try to create at least a minimal inflation rate to no avail, meanwhile Florida unemployment rate will hit 12%.
I should clarify, the fed and govt will not be successful at creating core inflation of even 2% this year.
I looked at units in 1800 several months ago. I was pretty indifferent towards the lobby, didn’t love it or hate it. But I’m like AJ, and having a grand lobby isn’t that high on my priority list. I’ll be spending the vast majority of time in my actual unit, so the the highest items on my list are: 1) 2 bedroom, 2) direct unobstructed bay views, 3) spacious floorplan and nice finishes.
Taking my first two items into consideration, 1800 really offers only one 2/2 floorplan that faces directly east. After viewing several of those units, they defintately did not meet criteria #3. The units were very small (around 1200 sq. feet)…I didn’t even think there would be enough room for dining room table in the living/dining area, and the finishes were pretty cheap. Overall, not too impressive, IMO. No offense, AJ, just my thoughts on it.
I wouldn’t buy in 1800 Club for one simple reason – AJ owns there. Can you imagine living in the same building! Worse, being stuck on an elevator and having to hear about how glamorous 1800 Club is and that Pace Park is such a great park….argh!
DJ,
The 2/2’s on lines 3 and 9 are 100 sf smaller than the 1222 sf lines 5 and 7. lines 3 and 9 really have a problem as you mentioned regarding small LR and Bedrooms. But 1222 is just enough for my requirements. But I completely understand that you would prefer a 1400 or 1500 sf 2/2. Then you are looking at line 1 with 3 BR and it gets very expensive. A large sq. footage is a double edged sword. gables liked the 1715 unit but utterly dislikes the extra HOA required every month due to the extra 500 sf than the normal 2/2. He would have to pay 500 x 42.47 cents (about $250) extra every month compared to me.
But you like more space and don’t care about the additional HOA. Similarly I also recognize that there are people who just want a pompous lobby and common rooms and to hell with the associated cost. But I am not rich and I do care about the associated costs. In fact I was impressed by the common rooms and party rooms of Quantum before I bought in 1800. But I shudder at the thought of lighting, chilling these gigantic rooms with A/C, TVs, gadgets and maintenance costs in terms of personnel required for the 4 (Yes four!) party rooms, one theater, multi level gym and many mini lobbies in Quantum. I do not need all that. I need just enough and nothing excess which will put a big drain on my monthly carrying costs for the rest of my life.
So to each his own. If one can afford the 900 Biscayne or Icon Brickell style of HOA, I say go for it, who am I to argue about that.
RT,
1800 is too hip for you. Stay with the hip replacement crowd at the Sunny Isles.
RT, you better start spending that money.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. inflation rose in February on higher gasoline and apparel prices, government data showed on Wednesday, indicating some pricing power in the recession-hit economy and easing fears of deflation for now.
But it was the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index that attracted the most attention. Analysts said that while the CPI data showed the risk of a persistent, broad decline in prices was fading, it did not indicate a resurgence of inflation, given the deep slump the economy is in.
In February, the overall CPI rose 0.4 percent, the biggest monthly gain since last July, and above January’s gain of 0.3 percent.
“Kiss the idea of deflation goodbye. The brief foray into declining consumer prices over the winter seems to be over and done with,” said Howard Simons, strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago.
The Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would buy up to $300 billion worth of long-term U.S. Treasuries to keep interest rates low and help revive an economy now in its 15th month of recession ignited a brisk rally in U.S. stocks and the prices of government bonds. Major U.S. stock indexes ended the session with gains of about 1 percent to 2 percent.
This will be the first time since the period from 1961 to 1965 that the Fed has bought longer-term U.S. Treasury securities.
But the U.S. dollar sank to a two-year low versus the euro.
Analysts said the Fed’s latest move effectively left real interest rates negative across the board. The Fed kept the target for its benchmark overnight fed funds rate unchanged in a zero to 0.25 percent range.
APPAREL AND NEW VEHICLE PRICES JUMP
The February CPI data showed apparel prices up 1.3 percent, the biggest rise since a 1.5 percent gain in March 1990. Also contributing to the increase in the core inflation rate were new vehicle prices, up 0.8 percent, the largest advance since November 2004.
Compared with a year ago, core CPI rose 1.8 percent, creeping up from 1.7 percent in January, but still below the Fed’s comfort zone of 2 percent.
But some economists argue that the Fed’s liquidity injections are expanding the money supply base and may ignite inflation going forward if the central bank does not deploy adequate measures to withdraw that money from the system once the economy recovers.
“The shoveling of money into the system eventually can start to push prices higher,” said Bianco Research’s Simons.
“Once the economy recovers, we will have some real problems because at that point, the banking system will start to turn this monetary base into credit and will lead to an explosion of money supply.”
MORTGAGE RATES FALL
Earlier on Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that U.S. mortgage applications surged in the latest week, driven by a spike in demand for refinancing as the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate home loan fell to 4.89 percent, matching a record low.
(Additional reporting by Doug Palmer in Washington and Lynn Adler in New York; Editing by Jan Paschal
After lots of research got to say I think miami is to expensive, those hoa are the deal braker. For that kind of cash I’d rather put more in the pot and buy a house in austin or califonia. With these places coming so cheap miami will struggle to attract foreign buyers like me.
AJ,
dont let the inflation/deflation press give you the wrong signals. we may have some core inflation (very slight) as raw material costs recover some of their price contraction from the past year, but prices overall are lower now than in the past and will not exceed those values in the near term. but of bigger concern, and not a part of the cpi and ppi indexes, are the declines in large asset classes-equities and RE. these are, without a doubt, down and will stay on the lower end for a while. the current rally in equities is more likely a suckers rally since we have had very little positive change in economic conditions. these large asset declines clearly offset any benefit against deflation being reported by the cpi. the most recent moves by the fed MAY help slow down the decline, but dont count on a direct recovery from these events.
finally i am hearing more on this blog indicate the waste of money associated with all the extra amenities in these buildings. i have made this argument in the past as well. these are sales gimmicks which cost the end user over time. developers who use over designed lobbies, theater rooms, party rooms, etc are not your friend and are going to cost you money. i live in a building with adequate, although not expansive amenities, and the HOA price is bad enough. cant imagine the cost with a more extensive arrangement.
as for floorplans, most of the newer construction fails in that 2B units are typically under 1200 sf. again another poor decision by the developer indicating lack of concern for the long term user. this floorplan is fine for a renter, but an owner really desires about 1400 sf-you need storage space in your own home.
gables
that’s why i say buy in a boutique building on the beach (e.g., montclair or harriet). these new buildings are absurd with the amenities and hoa.
Can’t Be Serious #42 – I think that Lucas is doing a great job even with the childlike behaviour of many of the contributers to this blog.
Credit to you for not crawling into the muck. Calling him a coward because he’s using a standard or referencing HOA on a sq ft basis seems extreme though. It’s quite simply a question of using your calculator to determine a monthly cost. I’d expect that any potential buyer of a unit would consider both the actual monthly cost as well as the sq ft cost. Only Lucas can answer, but maybe there was another reason why the post was erased. Lucas?
The one good thing Miami Condo’s have going for them is most people would like to have one.
Lets be serious here folks, having a luxurious high rise to escape too in a sub tropical and exciting city is what most people dream of.
The killer though is the taxes and maintence fee’s.
Most hardworking people who are responsible with money and invest wisely can come up with 200 or 300k for a vacation condo. I know someday (I am still young) I will come up with this kind of money for a second place.
The problem is I will never have the kind of money to plop down 200-300k and be able to afford an additional 24K a year in taxes and insurance.
Now snobs like AJ may say I am too poor to deserve a miami condo because I can’t afford the 24K in taxes and insurance alone on a second home but that is just being disingenuous.
There are so many Miami condo’s that got built that there are not enough “rich” people to fill them all. The only way to get these condo’s to end users is to reduce the association fee’s and taxes so hardworking, middle class people who are good with money can afford one also.
If you can’t get the affordability down to the level where a middle class person who is good with money can afford it (IE. lives on less then they make an invest the rest as opposed to media’s version of middle class which is debt strapped) then there is no hope for Miami condo market.
Can’t Be Serious,
I think you owe Lucas an apology, your post was not deleted.
Can’t Be Serious /Mar 17, 2009 at 3:16 pm Vote:
The $0.42/sf maintenance on that 1,700 sq. foot unit is $721.99/month!!!
I suppose that is why you refer to it in square feet (like it is some kind of friggin’ commercial property) instead of the total amount. At some level even you realize what a lousy investment it is.
Miami is the 4th worst city for new jobs this spring….that can’t help home prices if Forbes is right.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/09/cities-jobs-spring-leadership-careers-worst_slide_2.html?partner=yahoo
Lucas is posting the maintenance fees in cents/sq. foot because that’s how the individual buildings do it. Just go to the sales center of any new building and ask them what the maineance fees are, and their response will be “$.xx/sq. foot.” Obviously with the varying sizes of units in most buildings, they don’t charge a flat fee for all units, but do it based on square footage. Lucas isn’t being disingenuous by simply restating what an individual building charges.
Christopher,
You said:
“Now snobs like AJ may say I am too poor to deserve a Miami condo because I can’t afford the 24K in taxes and insurance alone on a second home but that is just being disingenuous.
There are so many Miami condo’s that got built that there are not enough “rich” people to fill them all. The only way to get these condo’s to end users is to reduce the association fee’s and taxes so hardworking, middle class people who are good with money can afford one also.”
How utterly, ridiculously wrong you are!?
Me, a snob? while I am fighting every penny increase per sf on the maintenance, rejecting pomp for functionality and proud to shout about it? Get real.
The prices of these flats is an issue market will take care of and I am all for lower prices.
But the methods employed by some on this blog to achieve this end is very troublesome.
If you and others channeled even a fraction of that energy to fight the taxes and out of control HOA, I will be your best friend! We will all have a common goal.
I have always said, whether it is an expensive car or flat, it is not the initial expense that is of concern. The loan can be paid off. My only concern is the recurring expenditure. For that we have to have a massive nest egg for the rest of our lives or keep working till we die. Unacceptable. If you buy in Mexico or Carib or Asian beach resorts, there is no killer taxes or HOA’s. Just the maintenance for the gardeners and sundry. No insurance rip off or nothing. If Americans continue to let the powers be screw them, they will continue to get screwed.
So if You, Mark, Mo, Ace and their aliases use their time and the power of their key strokes to make a difference regarding taxes and HOA, count me in.
On the MLS it’s not listed per sq. foot. It’s the total amount. Am I correct?
Christopher said
“If you can’t get the affordability down to the level where a middle class person who is good with money can afford it (IE. lives on less then they make an invest the rest as opposed to media’s version of middle class which is debt strapped) then there is no hope for Miami condo market.”
There is no hope until AJ capitulates. My guess in mid 2011 because AJ is stubbborn.
Can’t be serious,
When I first came to this country, I saw a poster ad on a fast food joint that said
“One for $2 and 2 for $4”
I was totally aghast and asked an American friend, why does it state something that is so obvious? He told me most Americans don’t know how to add or multiply. They are making it easy for them so they do not have to whack their brains as to how much 2 hamburgers would cost!
I thought it was an extreme explanation. Even later when my supermarket bill comes out to $6.63 and I give the girl $7.13 and expect to get $0.50 back all hell breaks lose.
So I am believing more and more what my American friend told me so long ago. There are indeed some stupid people in this country who cannot add or multiply. You are not buying a dozen eggs. You are buying a house. If you cannot determine the HOA based on sf, then you do not deserve to buy a home.
So I guess Lucas has to do the multiplication and addition for these kind of poor souls or he will be called names.
Some mothers do have ’em.
Wild Bill (#49)
It’s listed in dollars/month on the MLS, but the MLS (unfortunately) is often completely wrong.
AJ said: “There are indeed some stupid people in this country who cannot add or multiply.”
Welcome to Miami. BTW, that’ll be $50 to park your Ferrari up front.
JL,
can I finance that?
Dj,
You are absolutely correct. That MLS hoa is so wrong most of the time, I am better off knowing a solid per/sf number for a building and just multiply that with the actual sq. footage.
gables you said:
“most of the newer construction fails in that 2B units are typically under 1200 sf. again another poor decision by the developer indicating lack of concern for the long term user. this floorplan is fine for a renter, but an owner really desires about 1400 sf-you need storage space in your own home.”
Read this that I coined
One Bed Room is Tight
Two Bed rooms is Right
Three Bed rooms is Wiste (you gotta say say ‘waste’ with an Australian twist to make it rhyme)
Ok coming to your 1200 SF 2 BR being inadequate for storing your things, I agree. But why in the World would you pay $200 or $300/sf for precious livable sq. footage and store things in them? And pay HOA and taxes on that dead space too!!!
The beauty of all these new buildings is that they come with storage rooms and cages valued between $75 to $100/sf. Just buy 100-200 sf. It is a one time charge in your life and store all your things in it. You can pile things one on top of the other till the ceiling! You cant do that in your own flat, it will look hideous.
And how sweet is the fact that there are no recurring monthly taxes or HOA on your storage space!! So buy a 1200 sf 2 BR and compliment it with some extra storage. It will save you lots of money up front and also every month for the rest of your life.
I hope this helps.
AJ, for me, it isn’t about extra storage, but more so comfort level. A 1200 sq. foot 2/2 is very tight and cramped. Usually the bedrooms are so small that you can fit maybe a queen sized bed and a dresser in and that’s it. Forget a kig size, even in the master.
As for the living/dining room, if you try to put a normal sized dining room table in, a nice sectional sofa, end tables, cofee table, media cabinet, etc, there’s usually no room to even move in the place. Unless you’re some sort of minimalist, I don’t see how you can live with the normal essentials in a 1200 sq. foot condo and not feel cramped.
I do think it’s pretty ridiculous that these places were designed so small and carry $500k+ price tags. I also think it’s ridiculous that if you spend a half million on a place, that you then have to buy a seperate storage unit just to keep your crap in.
For me, I need about 1,500 sq. feet minimum not to feel like I’m living in a shoe box.
I hear Panama is half the price of Miami and more first world. Any truth to that?
I’ll add too, that these small units were obviously not designed with end-users in mind. I’m looking for a condo to live in for the next 5-10 years, so I have to think about how I’ll feel about the place several years down the road. There is absolutely no way I wouldn’t quickly grow out of a 1200 sq. foot condo. These units were clearly the result of the housing bubble and designed for speculators and flippers with no actual interest in making a home out of these units.
DJ,
I understand. You like a more expansive rooms. But I come from NYC where they make 1 BR’s out of 400 Sf and 2 BR’s out of 650 sf. and charge you up the arse for the same. So my sense of space and luxury could be a little warped.
AJ, you should have mentioned that earlier. Your 2/2 at 1800 must feel like a palace if you’re used to living in NYC!
AJ said: “So my sense of space and luxury could be a little warped.”
– A LITTLE warped. Come on now, be honest! (I couldn’t resist…..been cloudy most of the day).
Jorge Perez was on CNBC today…. not surprising he wants lenders to lend to buyers….but what he REALLY wants is lenders to lend at the HIGH PRICES. There is a difference. Cut the prices in half and you won’t need landers to lend to buyers. Perhaps the Related Group will offer financing (with an agreement with their current lenders)???? Even if they do people would be stupid to buy at inflated prices. Another top rule in real estate is to have an exit strategy…..
AJ tells RT
“RT, 1800 is too hip for you. Stay with the hip replacement crowd at the Sunny Isles.”
“RT, you better start spending that money.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. inflation rose in February”
__
Pearls before swine AJ, pearls before swine.
AJ said:
“So I am believing more and more what my American friend told me so long ago. There are indeed some stupid people in this country…”
I agree…56% of the US voting population.
I would have to agree with DJ that most units that I have viewed in Miami were built with second home or vacation home buyers in mind. Small spaces and layouts that are not very practical. Of course living in a 600 sqft 2 bedroom NYC apartment, as I did a while back, puts it all in perspective. This is why most NY’ers, myself included, would love to have a condo in a brand new modern Miami building to spend their free time. It’s the closest thing to NYC by the Beach!
By the way, 1800 seems like a cool place.
It says “You’ve made it, matey!”
There is tremendous pent up demand that is about to explode.
Witness:
Miami2009 “This is why most NY’ers, myself included, would love to have a condo in a brand new modern Miami building to spend their free time.”
and even [email protected] states:
“The one good thing Miami Condo’s have going for them is most people would like to have one.”
Let’s see if I can find some premium units at a discount this weekend.
It’s dumb to insist on being right at the expense of one’s wallet.
Muir, you are probably correct. In my defense, however, I have been on the sidelines since ’06. That’s when I was told that if I didn’t buy immediately all the good units would be sold and I would have to settle or pay a premium. The guy is now a waiter…not that being a waiter is a bad thing.
In all seriousness AJ, 1800 seems like a pretty cool place. Sounds like the HOA fees are reasonable and won’t get the dreaded ‘special addessment’ anytime soon. It’s nice to see a building that is ‘living within it’s means’. That means a lot.
However, I’m not completely sold on the area. I’ve spent some time in Quantum and the areas seemed to take a turn for the worse when the sun goes down. It’s not rough and tough like Overtown, but it’s no Brickell either. You can cross your fingers for gentrification over time, but that is hard to come by in a slumping economy. As predicted, I think the values will fall slowly over the next two/three years. But, if I could get a good deal on a 2/2 somewhere down the line, I’d be very tempted to jump on it.
The interiors look cheap. People with money will hold out for better prices in buildings with better locations and superior finishes.
DJ,
Yes, the 1800 is like a palacio for many of my compatriots from NYC. But unless you have two kids to raise, I don’t understand why a 1200 sf flat cannot be your long term living unit (excepting people like you who like an expansive space).
RT, I knew you would take a dig at that. I can read you like a book. Ok at least I bought some sunshine to your cloudy day!
Re: Panama, been there. It is not as wretched as nicaragua, honduras, guatemala or honduras. It is slightly better than Costa Rica. But First World? First world is in my definition, a country with a per capita income of 20,000 or above. Panama does not even count among some middle income countries such as Mexico, Malaysia etc with a $3000-5000 per capita income. It is a low income country with as much poverty as you can find in Bogota or Lima. It does have some glittering sky scrapers in the capital Panama City. But it is not first world by any means. Until yesterday it was a banana republic drug laundering capital of the World. It only changed a little bit since then.
Jane Q,
Please come and join us. We love to have grounded people living with us. I do wish you get a fantastic deal on your 2/2. Regarding your sceptisism about how long it will take for the area to get gentrified, I say less than 2-3 years, economy is not an issue. This is why. Between the unoccupied flats in Opera, 18, Q and Paramount, there might be a total of 1000-1200 units in Pace Park. Once they get filled, irrespective of the economy the area will boom as these people need to live and require support services and conveniences.
From the CIA factbook
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/my.html
Malasia
GDP – per capita (PPP):
$15,700 (2008 est.)
Panama
GDP – per capita (PPP):
$11,900 (2008 est.)
I did not know that Malasia had a higher GDP than Panama.
Who’d a thunk it eh?
Meanwhile, the dollar continues to crash and I can only remember AJs words.
“None of these guys criticizing the decor do not have enough money to move into 1800 in the first place… Just goes to show the bullshit posters.
Prissy bitches like you cause all kinds of problems for our tightly controlled budget and our association.
Get lost ”
and…
“we all know that you belong to the NATO (No Action, Talk Only). So you will never buy anything ever neither in these “50 losers” nor even in “5 winners”. Why are you even on this blog?
Just live off the interest on your CD’s and enjoy your early bird specials.”
AJ – I don’t understand how you tout 1800 like it is some paradise you live in??? As I understand it, you DON’T LIVE THERE! You own a unit in 1800 that you lease out….. Please explain since I don’t get it.
Interesting posts for the most part. I agree with AJ in that the peripherals in the common areas are not that important, but the views, hoa, useable amenities, etc. are.
But is it pet friendly????
#60 DJ
#69 Jane
For MUCH larger than the miami norm for interior living space check out the Grand at 1717 No Bayshore on the water and down the rud -that’s New England talk-from the saintly:) 1800.
Saw some interesting prices in multiples and lucas can check em out for you
4 lines are Direct EAST FACING water view 2/2 s w/approximately the following AC living spice-thats aussie for space mites -mates
S +E views – corner 31 line 1700 s f
Direct east 32 line 1400
Direct east 32 line 1400
N+E corner 34 line 1600
Then some North facing with quite good water views
35 + 36 lines 1500 sf
48+50 lines’ water views decent but not as good as 35+36 as you move west across the E-W axis
RT, Cause I plan to really spend 5-6 months a year very very soon in 1800 (May be starting as early as next year) as soon as I tie up some loose ends up here in this Ice Box. And eventually move there full time for good in a few years. I really want to drop everything and come over there right away but I can’t.
It hurts especially that I have to rent a room in 50 Biscayne for 6 weeks in April and May, where I really wanted to live in 1800 as I love the neighborhood and Omni is the only place you can have a public transport connection to SOBE. From 50 Biscayne, first I have to take the Metro Mover to OMNI/Pace and then catch a public transport. I tried my best to rent at 18 or Q for short term but to no avail.
Lee, It was pet friendly for everyone until March 1st. Now only the exalted owners can have 2 pets. New Renters can’t. Sorry. This has nothing to do with me.
To start, let me say I am a dog lover (don’t like cats) but I don’t understand why someone would buy a dog or two and live in a high rise building. Seems unfair to the dog unless it was a very small dog. Most dogs need to a place to run to be active and healthy. Moreover, dogs are not people so the attention some people give their dogs seems outright dysfunctional.
With that said, maybe someone well versed in Florida condo law can chime in. My impression would be that a condo board can not make one rule for owner-residents and another for tenant-residents such as a no dog rule for tenants but still allow dogs for owners. My understanding of condo laws in another state suggests that that would not be legal….under Florida condo law I don’t know. In landlord-tenant law, the landlord gives the rights of possession and other ownership rights for a term instead of a deed. Why would a tenant in possession not have a right to keep a dog if owners can?
On an economic note, say a newscast about the Broward pet shelters beyond capacity with dogs….sad. Are their no Korean restaurants willing to take them???
The three buildings where I own all have pet restrictions for renters (no dogs or cats) but allowed for owners. It is written into the documents.
RT,
I can’t believe you said what you said! – “On an economic note, say a newscast about the Broward pet shelters beyond capacity with dogs….sad. Are their no Korean restaurants willing to take them???”
That is a very tasteless and cruel joke, if it is indeed a joke. Or did you really mean it? Are you the male version of Cruella De Ville?
Muir,
The point I was trying to make was that the reason the Miami Condo Market has dried up is not because the condo’s are undersirable, in fact I would love to own a Miami condo.
The problem is the price, not only the purchase price of the unit, but the additional carrying costs. For example the association fee’s alone on some of these units cost more then what I pay for Mortgage, Taxes, Insurance and association fee’s combined for my condo here in Michigan.
Would you rather pay 800 a month for an association fee on a real estate investment in Miami or pay 800 a month for mortgage,taxes,insurance, and association fee on a real estate investment in Michigan.
Of course Michigan is not as desirable as Miami, but when you are talking simply real estate investing for wealth building purchases you can see the flaw with Miami Condo’s.
To respond to your example about pent up demand I have a pretty good analogy.
There is a huge pent up demand to own a new Porche, if you offered most people in america the chance to get a new Porche for the price of a regular sedan most would jump at that oppertunity if they were looking to buy a car.
However the price point of the Porche is such that the demand does not become liquid. People dream of owning one, but can never afford too.
Miami condo’s have kind of become like a Porche, a luxuary purchase that people dream of owning but can never afford. The problem is back in 2001 with lower taxes, insurance, and price of the unit itself they were affordable.
Unless they become more affordable the true demand will not materialize.
Renter Tom,
From my condo bible—-
Once a lease or rental has been permitted, restrictions creating different standards for owner-residents and rental-residents would be discriminatory. Restrictions attempting to make such distinctions are improper and are unenforceable. When a unit is leased, the tenant receives all of the use rights in the association property and common elements otherwise available to unit owners unless the right of use are waived in writing by the tenant. The owner of the unit retains access rights to the unit as the landlord, but shall not have rights to use the common elements or association property except as a quest (718.106(4). FS).
I’ve got an off-topic question for you experts out there. I found a short-sale listed on the MLS that I’m extremely interested in. I just stumbled upon it last night so I haven’t had an opportunity to look into it further, but I did call my realtor immediately. The listing states that it’s “subject to lender approval.” Now the price is certainly lower than all of the other listings for that building, but it’s the only short sale listing, and IMO it is actually the only listing that reflects the true market value, rather than left-over inflated “bubbly” prices.
My realtor did not sound very confident about it, and said that people will often list short sales which are “subject to lender approval” just to get the listing out there, but that the lender ends up saying they will not allow the unit to be sold at that price.
First off, is this situation pretty common? Second, what can I do if the lender rejects the price they’re listing it at? Is there anyway to pressure the lender to reconsider? I’ve got cash for the unit and will be able to close immediately, and I figure this is a distressed property otherwise it wouldn’t be listed as a short sale, so I’d like to know what can be done to get the lender to acquiesce. Thanks.
this issues about pets and owners vs renters is quite interesting, and i certainly do not have any true legal expertise on this matter. but i do have some life experience, particularly from big cities like miami. in that sense, a rule will be made to the satisfaction of the person most pissed off. in this case owners who are upset with renters not caring properly for the property. this rule may not be legal, but nobody making the rule cares. they get to enforce their point of view. the rule is only rescinded if somebody challenges it, and in particular in court, to reinforce its illegality-if that is indeed even the case. nobody in miami is concerned about the legality when they make their rules-they will address that if somebody challenges it down the road. and who would really challenge in a court system this pet issue? costs too much-easier to just find a different building. this just seems to be the approach i most often see in south florida.
Wild Bill – If that is the Florida condo code, then that is what I expected. All you have to do is cite that code in a letter and the condo assoc should back down.
AJ – Only the spotted ones make good coats.
DJ – Been there, tried that…..the short sale price can be a scam even if the realtor says lender approved that price. Don’t get your hopes up.
March 20 (Bloomberg) — The dollar rose from almost a two- month low versus the euro as some traders bet the greenback’s record plunge on the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy Treasuries was too big to sustain.
I’m pretty sure the cure to the economic ills is to go on Leno and make fun of handicapped kids.
RT,
Do you know of anything that can be done in these situations? Is there anyway to negotiate with the lender and see what price they’d be willing to accept?
DJ – From my LIMITED experience….it is a game. I have seen it where a short sale price was “approved” as listed, then the price went up two weeks later, then the price went up a few weeks after that. Sorta like an auction thing….even though they said the first lowest price would be accepted…..but I forgot I was dealing with Realtards® who can’t tell the truth. You have to remain detached and patient.
It looks as if the developer and the owners don’t have a clue about basic condominium law.
It’s highly suspicious that in a 400 unit building only one lien has been placed on a unit for this year. These numbers just don’t add up.
I just don’t see the appeal of running a “one unit hotel” being desperate to get a renter for 3-5 days at a time hoping they don’t break or steal things. What a hassle and then you have to visit the property, clean it….etc. And not even cover your costs!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/greathomesanddestinations/20Rent.html?_r=1
I like the 101 Dalmatian’s room….wait until the little kiddies find the Dalmatian coat in the closet! heheheheheheeee
RT, You are wierd. But I will concur with you on “If that is the Florida condo code, then that is what I expected. All you have to do is cite that code in a letter and the condo assoc should back down.”
gables,
you consistently seem to come up with the most head firmly screwed on shoulders explanations. I couldn’t agree more – “this issues about pets and owners vs renters is quite interesting, and i certainly do not have any true legal expertise on this matter. but i do have some life experience, particularly from big cities like miami. in that sense, a rule will be made to the satisfaction of the person most pissed off. in this case owners who are upset with renters not caring properly for the property. this rule may not be legal, but nobody making the rule cares. they get to enforce their point of view. the rule is only rescinded if somebody challenges it, and in particular in court, to reinforce its illegality-if that is indeed even the case. nobody in miami is concerned about the legality when they make their rules-they will address that if somebody challenges it down the road. and who would really challenge in a court system this pet issue? costs too much-easier to just find a different building. this just seems to be the approach i most often see in south florida.”
AJ,
You’re da man!
Don’t justify to these clowns your lifestyle.
You do what you do because you decided to do it.
End of story.
They can continue to stay with the “hip replacement crowd” instead of your hip digs.
You said it best last thread, “my place says you made it matey!”
They are prissy bitches that could never afford to live there.
Let them wait for this imaginary condo giveaway. In the end when prices spiral ever upwards to the +$1000 psqf (as any decent comparable unit would cost in NY and Paris and just about anywhere) who’ll be laughing then, eh?
RT
“My impression would be that a condo board can not make one rule for owner-residents and another for tenant-residents such as a no dog rule for tenants but still allow dogs for owners. ”
Your impression is wrong.
Christopher,
I am shocked that someone of your obvious intelligence (recommending oil ETFs for the next cycle) should be so lacking in imagination that he would utter “5+ posts….”
(your #3 post)
For your information young man, the stats are as follows: 18.
My prediction for both threads +45.
I did not have the scrotums necessary for the short term buy of SKF at 105.
I’m a chicken.
I wish I were more like AJ.
Thank GOd he’s here as an example of courage.
Muir – Well maybe I should have said a LEGAL rule. Condo assoc do stupid things all the time.
And now onto the yacht market which is “flooded” with repo yachts (too many “luxury” condos, yachts, jets, retail stores, autos, etc.)…….No end in sight, no end in sight….
“US foreclosure crisis sinks luxury yacht market”
RT,
We all know the economy is in the shitter. You’re not proving anything to anyone, but why do you have to constantly come with only negative news in every single one of your posts?
It’s annoying and it takes away from the enjoyment of the site to see you posting your apocalyptic predictions everytime I read the comment section. Don’t you think the media does this enough for us?
I know most condo prices are coming down. I know people are losing their cars and yachts. I know the unemployment rate is sky rocketing. Do you some how get off on the worlds misery? Lighten up man! Try focusing on the positive for once.
RT and AJ provide a perfect balance to this blog. One that the fairness Doctrine would be proud of. That is what makes this blog so interesting. Although RT should focus on the positive every once in a while. Look Muir did and he is a better man for it!
Thank you Miami2009.
I try.
Lucas,
When do we get to see the list of available condos and their prices in 1800 and 500 Brickell?
Muir,
Day trading is a sure way to lose money in my investing experience, however, the only way to play those short ETF’s is to daytrade them.
I was reading an article in Smart Money about it last night and evidently if you hold the short ETF for a week and the stock market drops 900 points, you can potentially lose money due to market swings and the ETF closing positive on some days.
I am going to be honest with you and admit I don’t really understand how those work other then to say don’t buy the Ultra short Etf’s unless you will be in and out in a day.
I still think USO especially and GLD will be very volitile for next year but see them making a lot of money.
If you like Mutual funds I think the best energy fund is ICENX.
I would not be surprised if all of these drop before they rise again though so timing is key.
My Dearest Juan – I’m not negative….at least those that saved and didn’t borrow so much see cheaper condos, cheaper yachts, cheaper jets, and cheaper luxury cars as a GOOD thing. It isn’t doom and gloom for the prudent savers…..the silent majority. The minority … the debt accumulators / consumption pigs are the cause of these financial problems. In fact, I spent more in 2008 then in any other year! 2009 will set another spending record for me too! I’m hoping to find a good condo bargain to help bailout all of these bankrupt failure losers. One thing I do know, it is going to get much much worse….it is what it is. I’m a realist and when you have a president that spent an unreal $190M on his inauguration, goes to NBA games, jokes on Leno…..and projected $1.85 Trillion deficit under his watch…he just doesn’t get it! Meanwhile more troops in Afghanistan. My oh my….a collapse is not out of the question….
Anybody want to go on a helicopter tour of SE Florida with me? For $600 get a 1 hour tour with up to 3 people….not bad at all. Helicopters are fun!
OK, different tone (this is a Smart Money® post)
There was talk of rules for owner-residents and different for tenant-residents.
The example given was a no dog rule for tenant-residents but another rule in the same association that allowed dogs for owners.
I’ve been a board member in an associations.
I’ve spent quite some time at the attorneys.
As a member in an association, but not on the board, I’ve threatened to take the board to mediation and had the entire board collapse in multiple resignations.
I’ve read Chapter 718 and 720 multiple times, multiple times.
I know the order of precedent for the governing docs and the subtleties of “notwithstanding the governing rules” versus “unless otherwise stated.”
And I can say that you guys have no idea what a can of worms you opened up here.
As a matter of fact associations do in fact regularly pass non-enforceable rules.
Usually they have the mistaken belief that through changes in the by-laws, they can by-pass and make null the Covenants.
AJ mention stability in the Board.
He offhandedly mentioned “prissy” members giving problems.
RT mentioned Board rulings etc.
This really is an unexplored subject in this blog.
The Minorca in the Gables does have a policy for owners (2 max 40lbs) and one for tenants (none)
55 Merrick has something similar or there was talk of this.
But the problem that this points to is much bigger than the pet thing.
Muir (for this post only Smart Money® member)
Christopher,
Yes SKF is a day trade (unless you have trailing stops or all sorts of goodies on your phones etc)
And I’ll be honest, I now have no idea what will happen next week, much less in 3 months time.
I’ve done good and since 2000 have about 4x net worth (I’m very conservative)
I’m physical gold and mostly cash.
I have been betting on a massive disinflation and a deflation.
RT,
Count me in.
Is that $200 then?
Muir (confused about just about everything except condos)
Once again, RT has his political facts all wrong…
The New York Times published an article one week before the controversy erupted over the cost of Obama’s inauguration reporting that in 2005, “the federal government and the District of Columbia spent a combined $115.5 million, most of it for security, the swearing-in ceremony, and cleanup for the Bush ingauguration.”
You read that correctly. The federal government spent $115 million dollars for the 2005 inauguration. Keep in mind, that $115 million price tag was separate from the money Bush backers bundled to put on the inauguration festivities. For that, they raised $42 million. So the bottom line for Bush’s 2005 inauguration, including the cost of security? That’s right, $157 million.
Unless the Obama inauguration tab (including security) ends up costing $630 million, we can safely say it certainly won’t cost four times what the Bush bash did in 2005. And unless the Obama inauguration tab (including security) runs to $257 million, we can safely say the event won’t cost $100 million more than Bush’s, as Fox & Friends claimed.
So, can the right-wing press and partisans posters please stop peddling this malignant myth?
I can tell you the majority of condo owners don’t have a clue about anything building related. Even when I bring up state laws and building codes which have no gray areas people will attempt to deny everything. I usually like going to meetings to see how much bullshit my neighbors can spew.
It basically goes like this in this order:
– God
– Natural Law
– Federal Law
– State Law
– Declaration
– By-Laws
– Rules & Regulations
A rule & reg that runs afoul of State Law is void.
P.S. For Oracle (get your eyes checked):
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/news/economy/cbo_obama_budget_deficit/index.htm?postversion=2009032016
RT is on some other type of mission here. I thought he was taking his money and moving out of the country after President Obama won the election? Now he is talking about taking helicopter tours and buying a condo in miami this year. By the way if he believes all the shit he writes on this blog why is he considering spend that kind of money (cash none the less ) on a condo in Miami? Can someone answer that question for me please? Does he think the Goones in miami can’t find him in those high rise condos when this shit hit the fan? Miami will probably the worst place to be if his predictions of our economy comes true. He save that money, buy a one way flight out of the country and find someplace peaceful to live life. he should at least consider buying a few thousand acres in Montana, loading up on the shotguns and AKs and starting a homestead.
RT, you must not believe your own predictions because your actions say otherwise.
Maybe you are one of those folks AJ writes about, you know, the “Smart Money” guys.
Why else whould you write everyday about the pending collapse of the US economy and still look to invest large amount of cash in a miami condo?
Here is my prediction, the economy will be just fine and Renter Tom will never own a luxury highrise condo in Miami, not even if they gave it away.
RT…remember Obama is the Messiah and can do no wrong! Several people, even some on this very blog, have told me so.
Oh and if you mention anything negative about this administration you will be personally attacked.
Back to condos…
Anyone here purchased or negotiated a foreclosure? I am currently looking into a REO and was wondering what I can expect if I make an offer 20 – 30% less than asking price? The listed price is at or below current market conditions. HOA fees are quite high, which I believe makes this building less attractive to buyers. Definitely not an investment property, just something that my family and I can share for pleasure. I actually don’t see how any single condo unit can be considered an investment, but that’s just my opinion.
Miami2009
I’ve offered 50% off the REO price.
Unsuccessful bid.
I say politely, that I think you are making the same mistake as others here have by thinking in terms of a discount.
Think years and you should be more successful.
What year do you expect prices to return to?
Offer then that year as your bid e.g. 1997, 1999 or 2000. (minus negotiation room or greed)
Muir (The original $85 psqf Smart Money® member)
So RT,
Precedence.
Articles of Incorporation, Covenants, Original By-Laws.
Quick!
Too simple eh, ok.
Board changes By-laws properly and records changes and FL Statutes says “notwithstanding governing documents”
Same scenario but now it says “unless otherwise stated.”
Still too simple.
OK.
Here’s one: you have a “prissy” homeowner (as AJ reminded us) like yourself (or me)
and one of the above scenarios plays out and he sends a letter to DBPR asking for mediation, he is not using a lawyer.
Condo lawyer says it’s murky.
answer:
??
(If you were as intelligent as AJ you would know)
Muir
Muir, excellent advise. Thanks.
Does the bank usually counter offer?
miami2009,
they almost always counter unless you are close to the BPO (Brokers Price Opinion).
Excellent. Thanks makes me think!
“I am a cash buyer in the $1M+ range (I actually have millions just sitting in cash waiting to put some into a home and waiting to see how the stock market plays out the financial crisis before putting $2.5M more into the market)” –RenterTom, May 2008
10 Months later he is still on the sideline and the 1M+ is down to 300K. That is why I think RT will never buy a lux condo in mia. Some people do and others talk about doing. RT is all talk and no action.
Miami2009
What makes me think said is correct.
makes me think,
REALLY??!!!
That means AJs correct! (“prissy bitches… that could never afford to live here.”)
AJ, your da man!
makes me think – I’m renting at HALF price on the beach…..why would I give that up when it looks like condo values are going to practically collapse with all of the financing restrictions and wealth (demand) destruction??? Patience will be rewarded….yes, we can! I like helicopters….so what…..Google Earth just ain’t the same experience! Maybe there should be a combined yacht, luxury car, and condo tour set up?????
I for one am utterly amazed and now shocked over the fed govt’s absurd attempts to reinflate the credit bubble. Stability yes, $1.85 Trillion federal deficits no. This has consequences….and the uncertainty that it creates causes further hesitation to make long term commitments. Heck there was even a “financial expert” on “On the Money” yesterday that was advising someone NOT to convert a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA during these few years of conversion opportunity…..that is crazy….he was suggesting the fed govt will have to renege on the tax free growth and withdrawal of funds from Roth’s down the road since they will need tax revenues to pay for the deficits! We are entering bizarro world where all of the consequences (intended and unintended) are not reliably predictable. This is serious. The markets need a calm stability, not a major program of the day that is a roller coaster of uncertainty…everybody waits and waits…..will the condo flipper or developer get bailed out or will they collapse? Too many uncertainties to buy right now….just too many…..unless the price is silly cheap.
Meanwhile, the fed govt is looking for ways to increase our energy costs by at least 50%……great.
The macro factors seem to be pointing to a condo death spiral…..so I will wait a bit more. Seems logical to me. For single family homes, the picture is not nearly as bleak.
RT says:
“In fact, I spent more in 2008 then in any other year! 2009 will set another spending record for me too!”
OK, in 2008 you started added a topping to your plain cheese pizza dinners. In 2009 you are going to make it 2 toppings. RT, you are living da Life dude! I’m jealous.
BTW I love helicopters. I fly a lot in my travel destinations in para sails, gliders etc. I would love to take that ride with you to see the Keys from up. Hopefully we don’t try to strangle each other and push one out the copter during our arguments.
AJ – As long as we get to fly over the Everglades, you’re more than welcome to have the seat by the door…..you know the one with the faulty seatbelt.
miami 2009,
I was neither for O nor for Mcpain. I was not fired up by either. But after this weeks fiasco, I am having second thoughts and actually waiting for 2012.
For 8 years we had to put up with a clown and a moron and now we have a kid in a candy shop who giggles talking about flying in Air Force 1, goes on a vereity show, giving stump speeches on roadshows, lapping up the adulation from the faithful, it is becoming very unpresidential.
I almost fell out of my chair when I heard the grovelling TV message to Iran. Neville Chamberlain all over again? The Iranians are laughing at us now.
Unlike some on this blog who have a visceral hatred to anything Democratic, I do not have any such predisposed alignments. I am more independent. But after this week , to say I am disappointed with this guy is an understatement. As long as the Huckster and the Moose Barbie are not running against this guy, I will vote for anyone put up by the Repubs.
RT you sound like an alarmist on this blog because you are constantly yealling the sky is falling, eveyday you get on this blog and post about the most dire circumstances . We all know there are consequences to all this spending but you seems to concentrate on the most dire, you seem to revel in other peoples missery in the hopes that you can snag a cheap condo. I might understand if you were one of the poor bastards that can’t afford a condo. According to you, you have a boatload of cash and clearly can afford a condo. Does saving money on a condo you can already afford mean that much to you that you would get on this blog (and others I’m sure) to constantly berate your president and wish for the demise of your community and country? That makes you no different than those gready bastards on wall street who brought this plague on our country. They had plenty, more that enough but they wanted more regardless of how many people got destroyed. We have a name for people like that, they are called sociopath. http://www.mcafee.cc/Bin/sb.html
Some of us care about our neighbors, community and country. So it bothers us when you get on here day after day to gloat and rejoice in, according to you, the pending demise of those that we care about. Have you nothing better to do that listen to those fools on CNBC and FOX then come here to regurgate that nonsense? Maybe you should get out of your Condo once in a while and visit some real americans to see how this economy is affecting them maybe then you might be a bit understanding.
It is just amazing to me that some people would rather see everyone and everything around them destroyed in order to get what they want. Miami is not going to be a nice place to live if unemployment goes to too high and flolks can’t afford to feed their families. I don’t care if you are in the hood or on the beach. So be careful what you put out there.
makes me think – Take a deep breath….I neither want nor take joy out of the financial pain coming down this pain train. If you are so good about looking up past posts maybe you will recall my grave concern over putting in a political newbie in the oval office and the real consequences of the financial hardships where thousands, probably millions abroad will die. But why should I step in an throw money into a condo that may collapse? By the way, I do volunteer time to serve the “homeless” so I do have a pretty direct understanding on the effects including helping one person who was just evicted. That still doesn’t mean I should buy an overpriced condo now….it will be cheaper later. Will the Related Group go under and have half priced condos????
AJ – Obama is now the new Osama…or at least he is with respect to the Iranian people. Sorta like releasing one of the goofy Osama video messages to the US but now we’re doing it to Iran….. too funny, I think.
OK, I will chill. I’m sure people don’t want to read about my rants anyway.
I though lucas promised a new topic?
Palm Beach Post yesterday (Lucas nailed this when it happened Fannie Mae rules change)
“The Daily Business Review. “Many high-end South Florida communities — especially in Boca Raton, Delray Beach and Boynton Beach — have imposed mandatory club fees in recent years. The cost can range from a few thousand dollars to more than $20,000 per year. Buyers also face a one-time fee of up to $50,000 to join. They help pay for maintenance and activities at the clubs. Several lawsuits were filed by homeowners who thought the requirement was unfair and some of these legal battles have lingered for years.”
makes me think,
“OK, I will chill. I’m sure people don’t want to read about my rants anyway.”
Oh, no, please, by all means rant away!!
It beats RTs infantile, asinine statements any day of the week.
rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover
Best article on this mess I’ve read yet (and I’ve read hundreds)
AJ,
I don’t have the prices for all of the remaining inventory. Both developers are releasing units in batches. They will only provide pricing for certain floors if a client requests that specific floor and it hasn’t been released yet. I’ll try to post the pictures I have of the other units I saw last Sunday within the next couple of days.
solaris prices have collapsed with 2B offered at $180k. i know these are short sells, but guess it is an indicator of the next building to suffer. if they actually could sell for around $180k, i might actually buy. but my guess is the banks will wait unitl further collapse, when $125k will be the going rate and $180k will be a distant memory. these guys are supposed to be smart, but actions are quite silly. prime the pump now because you will lose more the longer the delay in deals occurs. these units may be falling more than $5k a month over the next year.
i see several units at the Mark listed as sold as is, and specifically note that code violations may exist and are the responsibility of the buyer. this seems an odd note i dont see in many of the other buildings. is there something amiss at the Mark?
gables,
Noticed that the 200K for a 2/2 was breached in the Gables?
Many said that at $200K they’d be interested.
Ace’s and my predictions will come to pass.
Of course, my predictions were better than the ACEs.
But he had more style and was more clever.
Muir,
in the gables really only minorca and aragon have dropped and made me begin to take notice. other buildings either have not dropped or have poor location. still looking, and at under $200k units become affordable. At $150k they are a bargain. question becomes how much risk do you take over the $50k differential?
AJ. I agree 100%, well put.
just a thought on inflation issue and the recent push to buy RE before the inflation kicks in. the kicker will be how quickly the Fed pulls its money out of the market after the flood. if they do not withdraw, it will keep interest rates low while inflation kicks in. this will be a bad deal for fiscally responsible people because you will be forced to put money into assets you would rather not. but this is seen as the easiest way to inflate our way out of debt. but if the Fed does pull out money as it should, this will increase interest rates even if inflation is still occurring. in this case, cash in hand will be great, because at some point you will be able to lock in long term cash tools (CD, bond, etc) at these high interest rates long after inflation is tamed. this occurred for many folks during the high inflation days of the late 70’s and early 80’s. i know folks who had 10+ year items which paid over 10% from that era. just another idea to factor into the waiting game. 10% return on safe investments is not such a bad investment compared to the past couple of years.
Gables, Solaris seems like a nice boutique building. I never went inside but did consider a unit there a while back. However, Villa Magna was supposed to be built directly in front. Well, that’s not going to happen anytime soon if ever. I heard the developer leased the land to the city and it will be a park for several years, which will provide nice bay views for Solaris for quite some time. The Mark is one building that I have been into recently. Older building and I would assume some units may have been neglected over time. Units I toured had nice views but poor layouts and definitely needed updating.
Gables,
“At $150k they are a bargain. ”
My easiest prediction in this blog:
When they get to $150 you will not buy.
gables – Right now I would suspect that the govt will be a tad late on pulling the “liquidity” out of the system (but that is just a guesstimate based on the reality of how these things work). I agree that with low inflation 10% is a good return…..as long as the one having to pay the 10% survives. Keeping rates low solves several problems right now….allows refi of mortgages at low rates and discourages hoarding cash since the return is poor. Basically the govt has pulled out its credit cards to get us through this…..not much different than what debtor lifestyle people did. It is a worry and a concern going forward. It could get amazingly ugly….or just a burden we live with. If it gets ugly then the US could go the way of the USSR…..doubtful but not out of the realm of possibilities. CNN is now saying “Fed want some inflation”….gee I’ve said that for months. Across the board deflation would create a depression and defaults of sovereign debt.
RT,
I say this in all sincerity, you have no idea what you are talking about.
Muir,
By your logic, i should have bought a unit at $300k because that was a significant discount to the $500k units when i first looked at the buildings a couple of years ago. Simply put, no need to buy a significantly declining asset. I have no issue buying at $150k if there is limited downside. But by the time prices drop to that level, the downside could be at $100k or less. saying i wont buy at $150k is stupid. i will if the downside is limited. i wont if it is not, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that decision. it is the correct one. you can throw your money away if you want, i am a bit more careful with mine.
gables,
You seem confused by the two Muirs.
The last Muir post was a Smart Money® Muir
When it gets to 150K you will not buy because you will realize that you may still OVERPAY at 150K by anywheres from 33%-50%.
But you will not know that until prices get there.
Gables, you gotta be swift with my posts. But I’d think you would remember that I’ve posted graphs from the FED, studies from Case-Schiller, numerous PE analysis of condos etc. all pointing to only one possible answer for prices.
I get bored so then I counter post my own posts.
Muir, original $85 psqf member of the Smart Money®
somebody has a multiple personality disorder on this blog
gables, Only because so few are members of the Smart Money® club
I mean, how simple could this be?
Do you really need this blog to tell you that prices are coming down?
Schizophrenia!
We concur.
But I DONT!
Dammit!
Well get over it!
We’re da men!
NO!!
AJ’s da man!!!
RT, stop watching CNN. The Fed has no clue want they want or what is needed.
MUIR and ACE are the same and posibly many more Alias’s.
It’s over for the condo market in Miami
Lucas,
you may want to either stop comments or review them over the next couple of weeks. you have a great blog, with interesting discussions, even if they do drift off topic at times. unfortunately the comments section is becoming a joke, and i am sure are not a very good representation of your work to irregular viewers of the site. this is harmful to your business. freedom to express ones point of view is good, but there is no need to protect silly and unconstructive comments. i enjoy contributing to the blog every once in a while, because i feel others value my opinion, even if they disagree. but it seems as though the blog is evolving into a romper room-this is a very bad sign for the future of this site. just my thoughts for your consideration, since i enjoy your work and hope to do business with you in the future.
Gables, I had the pleasure of touring some properties with Lucas on my last visit to Miami. Lucas is as down to earth and real as they come. As you can see from this blog, he doesn’t sugar coat anything. I give my highest recommendation. I will certainly use his services when I purchase a unit in Miami.
gables,
“When it gets to 150K you will not buy because you will realize that you may still OVERPAY at 150K by anywheres from 33%-50%.
But you will not know that until prices get there.”
That stung?
Jeez, that’s some mighty thin skin gables.
Just so you know, nobody here has posted more links to hard numbers than me.
But I guess you want to feel assured and safe and superior.
muir, those comments dont bother me in the least-my skin is fine. but i am accustomed, whenever possible, to converse with others in a grown up manner. and lately this blog feels more like a bunch of hormonally charged teenagers than grownups. the forum is missing its potential by a wide margin lately.
miami2009, i could not agree with you more about Lucas. which is why it is disheartening to see his fine work being a bit abused by others. ultimately this is how a blog becomes irrelevant-when individual posters overtake the original blogger of the site.
gables,
I fully concur with you !!
ABOUT TIME!!! Go to jail, go directly to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $200….
“Bank sues appraisers and attorneys, alleging fraud in flipping condos”
“Bank sues appraisers and attorneys, alleging they helped straw buyers and a flipping operation that cost it millions”
Though not a big fan of McPain, I was completely bowled over by the phrase coined by him(?) “Generational Theft”!!
Indeed. We are totally robbing the next gen and may be even the one after that so that we can continue to have a good life right now! All these Trillions of Dollars we are spending will have to be paid back by our children and grandchildren.
I don’t have any children and this may not affect me directly though I have tons of nieces and nephews and cousins and they do have a lot of children whose future is iffy at best with reduced wages, lower standard of living, totally indebted to the rest of the World.
But for a minute, If I close my eyes and forget the wave of shit that is about to descend upon the future generations, My life seems pretty secure, at least for the foreseeable future. That is why I am not so sure if the doomsday prediction by all these people will happen. The powers be (baby boomers are gables suggested) will steal enough from the future to keep us afloat now. Any effects of these Trillions of Dollars of borrowing and printing will start showing only in 10-20 years from now.
I say if you can’t win ’em, join them. I can do precious nothing about this, so I will just selfishly enjoy the effects of the (multi) Trillion dollar robbery of our kids by our government.
And from what I gather by the talk, actions and the body language of the big O, looks like he already started running for 2012. I will be 100% certain, he (and his admin) will print and borrow ourselves out of this mess and let the next admin and the future gen’s deal with the consequences.
Even if the economic chickens come home to roost in his second term (if he gets re elected) that would be least of his concern as he wont be running in 2016.
Sorry, O fans, these are the only logical ideas coming to my mind as, all I read day after day is the throwing of a Trillion here and Trillion there as if it is some kind of Confetti. No one even talks in terms of Billions or Millions anymore. How did we get here!?
Today my favourite park, South Pointe Park is reopening after spending $20Mil on a major facelift. Can’t wait to bike and walk there when I get to Miami.
If you haven’t done so yet, try this walk. Start from Icon/Murano Grande Marina, walk along the promenade all the way to Apogee. The bastards at Apogee broke the walk by denying access to the public (I hope we get to connect that little stretch soon). Then walk in front of Apogee and enter the SP park from Washington st next to Apogee. Then all the way to the end of Government cut, then along the two Continuums, Nikki beach to Lummus Park and all the way upto 21st street. It is absolutely fantastic. As good if not better than sex. Worth living this life for!
I think the South Pointe Park, Lummus Park, Pace Park and Bayfront Park are the best things that happened to Miami. There are no such places next to the blue water in such a nice weather in any other city. I’m so wistful.
AJ,
Scary isn’t it? we have lost all sense of scale in the current crises. we howl about $180 MILLION paid out to AIG in bonus, but not a peep about the BILLIONS which passed through AIG to Goldman, etc.
the increase in federal debt has me more concerned about RE over the long term. while there exists a valid argument stating RE is good during inflation, will the benefit be overcome by taxes? particularly florida, where the property tax will increase, perhaps to a rate many have not fully appreciated. under relatively stagnant wages, can RE truly be held and not become a liability through taxes, even if some appreciation returns? remember cash may also reap the rewards of high interest during inflation, and the taxes there are not a liability because you do generate monthly returns. you can only cash in on RE profit when you cash out-but will taxes do you in before? i am afraid the FED approach to reinflating the economy out of this mess may have serious unintended consequences for the average joe.
There’s never been a better time to buy in my opinion.
gables,
What topics would you suggest.
Though I do not think it has been brought up, beach erosion would be an important subject.
How about the cycles of boom-bust in Miami/Miami beach, I personally knew a fireman that bought a beach hotel which was boarded up for back taxes in the late 70s.
When some here started to speak about noises in different buildings, thickness of walls etc., that seemed to me a subject of interest to end-users.
How about the Biscayne corridor, I remember when the Omni was built. What are it’s long term prospects (10+ years out?) Will it bust also as it did in the past?
Any of these interest you, or is the same endless talk about prices?
Just a comment. I know several people that own more than one condo unit. Sure they can afford them, they don’t like it but it won’t BK them. Basically they are now inclined to take a haircut and move on. However, they seem to be thinking they can just list their unit and it will sell…..at prices about what others are listed at that haven’t sold in a year. And they think that is about they price they will get in a relatively short timeframe. My opinion is they were late to get these things listed in the first place and will be chasing prices down. Sure they can afford to hold them, but they will be bleeding money every month just to sell for an even lower price…
“Sure they can afford to hold them”
Doesn’t matter, at some point they’ll dump them.
They held unto their pets.com stock until they didn’t.
AJ said:
“I think the South Pointe Park, Lummus Park, Pace Park and Bayfront Park are the best things that happened to Miami. There are no such places next to the blue water in such a nice weather in any other city. I’m so wistful.”
Some of the most beautiful place s in the world. Absolutely agree!
any news on what, if any, improvements will be made to the temporary park across from solaris that hollo leased to the city? will it remain a “field” or is the city planning on making positive use of it over the next few years?
This is the lamest interview 60 minutes has ever done.
I’m sure RT will have some choice words.
Miami2009,
I wholeheartedly agree too and so easy to get to the beach on a bus, as AJ pointed out.
Yet, I’d be careful in that neighborhood, you’re likely to be robed and raped if you stray too far West.
Muir – Sounds like he is the “decider”….how many times did he say decisions??? Nice digs eh? Decisions between bad and worse…..hmmmmm guess it isn’t as easy as he thought. Just can’t wait for the same critique of him that he did Bush. I know, let’s plant a vegetable garden! LOL Oh, and he has repeatedly gotten lost…what a dumbo. Can you imagine if Bush said some of these dumb things? I predict the dems will do anything to hold onto power in 2010 and 2012 including mortgaging the future of the next three generations. The tax and spend liberal characterization is being blown out of the water by this guy and as a result we will have a poorer nation. In a global economy with fluid investments, why would you want to invest heavily in country burdened with this kind of debt? I can’t believe I actually am giving Canada great consideration for investment mainly because it is more conservative than the US!!! With regard to large condo purchases, real estate property taxes are not going to go down in Florida……the only question will be how much do they go up??? Just another reason to make sure you are prudent on the purchase price.
– Interesting comment from someone recently about units on higher floors…. they said something to the effect that the price goes up the higher the floor…. I didn’t have time to explain that was mostly a marketing gimmick as more floors generally lower over all costs for all units when land prices are high since the land price is divided among more units. Moreover, in the buildings I have looked at, not only is (asking) price no longer higher for upper floors but rents have been floor agnostic. Once again….marketing during the bubble to make one think that higher floors should command such a large price premium.
RT,
Personally, I’d pay extra for a higher floor, less noise from traffic and nicer views.
That’s just me though, but if not for the views on the higher floors, why not buy a house?
gables,
I think Hollo gave it to the city for 3 years. So by the time Miami decides to put a park in that space, their time will be up. I can write it in stone, watch the construction crew digging the foundation for Villa Magna by 2014 or 2015 along with the other Hollo’s magnum opus One Bayfron Plaza. Both also should be ready by 2017.
The city is also planning to join Pace and Bayfront park into one continuous entity by the way of Herald waterfront and under the MacArthur Causeway. Let us see what happens after the Museum park comes into fruition.
I am going to get hammered for this. But how come Miami never was in the running for the Olympics? Did it ever compete and lost out to other cities or did it not? I cannot think of a better place in the whole wide world to organize the olympics. If we ever have the Olympics here, the whole World would want to come to Miami! Tickets will get sold out in no time.
Proposed new Marlins stadium can double as opening and closing stadium. We already have the olympic Village ready (Icon Brickell + Mint + Ivy + Wind + Latitude + Midtown etc). Has the bus left for 2016 already? Well then how about 2020?
Muir is reflecting my thoughts –
“Personally, I’d pay extra for a higher floor, less noise from traffic and nicer views. That’s just me though, but if not for the views on the higher floors, why not buy a house?”
– and it’s actually getting me concerned!
Muir – The question isn’t that you’d pay extra, it is HOW much extra……
By the way…Dateline NBC had a good show on the credit crisis starting with mortgages…next Friday will be on credit cards….the third part of this three part series hasn’t been announced yet but I hope they look at fed debt! I’m glad they are focusing on credit and not just housing.
Also, one of the short sales I was following went back down in price after 4 other units clustered their prices around it……chasing the price down it looks like. I’d pay $300/s.f. for it decorator ready…
Also, someone in the financing business told me there were already foreclosures in Jade Beach (or was it Jade Ocean???). Something must be really fishy with that! Any way to verify?
At the new W residences here in Boston, the premium is $50,000 per floor.
Renter Tom said: “Also, one of the short sales I was following went back down in price after 4 other units clustered their prices around it……chasing the price down it looks like. I’d pay $300/s.f. for it decorator ready…”
RT……. Where was it that you would pay $300 sq.ft., the Continuum? If so, I would go $310! LOL
RT,
“The question isn’t that you’d pay extra, it is HOW much extra……”
Oh, hmmmm, well, ahhhh……
Numbers are out
“The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million million units, up 5.1% from a rate of 4.49 million in January. February sales were down nearly 5% from year ago levels.”
Case-Schiller should be out this week (I think)
For comparison sake, anybody know what the Feb annual rate was during the years 2000-2006? curious how the 5% change compares to recent historical norms. 4.5 million annual sales seems still very low.
Monthly changes are mostly meaningless as monthly sales are volatile. The more important thing to watch is INCREASING supply on the market that outpaces sales. That is the trend to really watch. Moreover, despite any pent up demand (at low prices) the pent up supply / shadow supply is probably large to say the least….those owners that are “waiting” and of course the foreclosures or otherwise bank controlled homes that haven’t hit the mls….foreclosures take months (maybe even years for some) to actually being REO and put on the market. Odd how even as new home construction remains very very low, inventories continue to rise. It is all about supply and demand and as long as the supply far outpaces demand, prices will come down (at least in real terms).
gables,
“For comparison sake, anybody know what the Feb annual rate was during the years 2000-2006? curious how the 5% change compares to recent historical norms. 4.5 million annual sales seems still very low.”
______
link coming up (up to spam software if it goes through)
It’s page 71 (table 7) of HUD PDF(96 pages)
Existing home sales without inventory levels are deceptive.
Also into consideration is if the sales are second homes or primary.
Nevertheless, I’ll post link
first attempt failed
add the 3W’s + “.” + huduser.org/periodicals/ushmc/summer06/USHMC_Q206 + a period +the “pdf” with at the end.
maybe it goes through
For a more realistic apples to apples
calculatedriskblog.com/2006/11/historical-existing-home-sales-and_30.html
40 apple sales with an inventory of 800 is not the same as 40 apple sales with an inventory of 50 and all the customers ate the apples at the counter
gables
i think some dog owners might not pick up after their dogs. that’s the only improvements i think would take place in the next three years.
Increase in existing sales. All across the bottom. Nothing to do with insane asking prices predominating the MLS. Speculator and investor purchases and of course new fraud. The held back and slowed down foreclosures would flood the market immeasurably. There is no way on earth to properly price or appraise a residential property in Miami-Dade County right now unless you took the lowest and most recent sales price and slashed 50% off for risk, trend, supply, shadow supply, absorption rate and the next Katrina. Go back to basics. Multiples of rent adjusted downward for skyrocketing insurance/HOA rates and lagging drop in property taxes. It is the same bad news, but only getting worse.
Come back, of course.
gables,
So… you ask for info I post and …..
As I suspected, AJ was right, prissy bitches.
On #159
I posted:
“What topics would you suggest.
Though I do not think it has been brought up, beach erosion would be an important subject.
How about the cycles of boom-bust in Miami/Miami beach, I personally knew a fireman that bought a beach hotel which was boarded up for back taxes in the late 70s.
When some here started to speak about noises in different buildings, thickness of walls etc., that seemed to me a subject of interest to end-users.
How about the Biscayne corridor, I remember when the Omni was built. What are it’s long term prospects (10+ years out?) Will it bust also as it did in the past?”
See?
See? No interest.
I wonder how many people know how many boom-bust cycles I’ve seen here in Miami or have talked to a real old-timer, say they were born here some 60-70 years ago.
Different perspective.
But as you see, NOBODY is interested.
Now it’s boring.
Guess that makes it nice and unthreatening for you gables.
(AJ was right)
COME BACK (AKA “ACE”) its ok we don’t need ACE back or you with your CHILDISH comments!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yoo-whoo . The Florida Marlins baseball team just officially became the “Miami Marlins” and will have a new stadium to play ball in Little Havana. Bad deal for the county and a second rate location with no access to public transportation but I believe is better than nothing.
Muir,
“Prissy Bitches” is my patented holy grail of insults, directed towards divas, both male and female. You cannot invoke it so indiscriminately. It has to be launched only under special circumstances!
How will the high end condo market fare? Well, if you look at recent retail numbers from high end retailers, it doesn’t look good….. not only are people skipping the extra $1M condo, luxury jewelry retailer Tiffany & Co. said Monday that its fourth-quarter profit plunged 76% (Hurt by cutbacks by luxury shoppers, sales at stores open at least a year plunged 23%. Demand across the board was down — particularly for pieces over $50,000), Tiffany’s rival Fortunoff filed for bankruptcy protection in February, and Mark Shale, a purveyor of high-end suits and sportswear for men and women files for Chapter 11. More to come…
Now AJ, it is time you admit that you were wrong about the wealthy not being affected by this recession since they are clearly cutting back……esp since they are being cut out, that is, there are 1/3 fewer wealthy people.
By the way, what is with the Puma and Ferrari stores in South Florida. Is it a European thing or a South American thing, or both?
Lastly, was talking with someone this last week and the topic of real estate came up. I mentioned that I was “renting” a condo on the ocean. The response that I got from that was something like “Oh, I’d rather own since I wouldn’t want to be paying someone else’s mortgage.” I replied, with a chuckle, oh, I’m not, you see my rent only covers about half the owners out of pocket expenses each month. So, it is almost like the owner is paying me to live there. Meanwhile, the other person’s mouth dropped open with disbelief. I guess the old real estate indoctrination runs deep…
Red Shorts with green Pumas and yellow socks pulled up to the knees is a French thing fwiw.
More trouble for Related…
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/tourism/article985704.ece
“A cardiologist and wealthy philanthropist, Patel asked the city in November for more time to get his $250 million Clearwater Beach Resort & Hotel on track. His partner, developer Related Group of Miami, hasn’t been able to find a lender, he told the City Council.”
Speaking of Related, I took a look at a few developer units in 500 Brickell last weekend and was seriouslyunimpressed. I will say the common areas, pools, spa, etc. were all very nice, but the minute I stepped into a unit it was all over. I looked at a 2/2, 41st floor, “waterview” unit in the more expensive east tower. I put waterview in parentheses because you could basically see a little sliver of water that wasn’t obstructed by other buildings. The unit was ~1200 sq. feet (small) with substandard finishes, and ugly carpet throughout. The appliances were admittedly pretty nice, however. And the asking price, close to $600k. What a joke.
Biggest upward move in housing prices in the last 10 years. S&P case schiller goes from
-2% to +1.7 MoM.
http://www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/03/2009-03-24-house-price-index-mom.gif
Not saying that this applies to south florida. But the housing market is starting to heat up nationally.
DJ
Ditto on 500 Brickell. I got a tour a few months ago when they first started closing. The security guard there was soo bored he gave me a 30 minute tour. Your being kind when you say the common area’s – pool etc are “very nice”. The units were as you described. I dont know how they have managed a 30% closing rate. Its a third rate building in a poor Brickell location with views that cannot ever ever being described as “water views as you are so far inland and the have Icon blocking any meaningful views. Not to mentioned being a prisoner of the constant opening and closing of Brickell Av. Bridge and a far distance to any recreational park within easy walking distance. Btw- Plaza on Brickell should not be classified as waterfront either as is is so far inland that any water views are second rate.
AJ,
I apologize.
Thoughtless of me.
http://www.reuters.com/article/dealAtoms/idUSCH115024921820090323
“In the financial world’s version of night of the living dead, Corus Bankshares Inc. zombie-walks near the front of the pack. It’s so bad that in January the Treasury Department rejected the bank’s application for bailout money. Last month, Corus agreed to a consent order with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which is demanding the Chicago bank improve its minimum capital levels, cap deposit rates, and, most vexing, figure out what to do about the bank’s self-admitted “growing portfolio of foreclosed real estate assets.”
According to the bank’s 2008 results, Corus has over $400 million in foreclosed property, most of which occurred in the fourth quarter of last year. An additional $1.5 billion of loans, or some 36% of its loan portfolio, is non-accrual, with little chance of performing again.
So, while Corus continues to operate, only the terminally optimistic believe it can survive. “The consent order is a death order,” says a workout specialist with detailed knowledge of Corus. “It’s a precursor to the inevitable.”
Corus built its $4 billion loan book on the back of condominium construction.”
____
I like this part “Corus built its $4 billion loan book on the back of condominium construction.”
It’s up for the day 20% great shorting opportunity!
Oh wait, it’s up from .30 to .36.
Still it was trading in the 20 cent range.
At 30 cents though, a .16 profit on the downside x 10,000 shares, ahh, better to just watch tv.
DJ and Kramer,
You guys are a couple or “Monday morning quarterbacks”. If you had read my kind posts regarding the effing dump (500-B). If you had read my comments, you could have saved the gas it took to drive there. I lost money there but had the opportunity to ream out the Project Manager and the Closing-Queen from RCRS. “Effing dump” was one of the kindest descriptions I offered and, in the spirit of being diplomatic, I offered 50 Cents on the dollar to close on the purchase……….
DJ’s: “but the minute I stepped into a unit it was all over. I looked at a 2/2, 41st floor, “waterview” unit in the more expensive east tower. I put waterview in parentheses because you could basically see a little sliver of water that wasn’t obstructed by other buildings.”
DJ, The “waterview” cost and additional $75,000……When the s-bags built the ICON, that $75,000 turned into $0.75.
Kramer’s: “I dont know how they have managed a 30% closing rate. Its a third rate building in a poor Brickell location with views that cannot ever ever being described as “water views as you are so far inland and the have Icon blocking any meaningful views.”
Kramer, It is a third-rate building that belongs in Mumbai, Havana, or Caracas. No wonder the ICON wasn’t announced until the second half of the deposits were paid to those frauds!
“I offered 50 Cents on the dollar to close on the purchase…”
Well, at least they turned you down, otherwise, you’d be really scr*wed.
Muir said:
“I offered 50 Cents on the dollar to close on the purchase…”
Well, at least they turned you down, otherwise, you’d be really scr*wed.
************************
Always the optimist!!! LOL
Un-Related,
Actually, I think there will be tremendous buy opportunities.
But very few will take advantage of them because they will run out of bullets.
This is much worse than most realize.
UN-Related
I actually liked Havana when I visited. Would consider purchasing a condo there when the bourgeoisie are allowed back in.
Does anyone have any information on Uptown Marina Lofts in Aventura.There seems to be a lot of units for sale in that building.Any inside info. would be greatly appreciated. Thank you
There is good news all around
Existing home sales up
New Home sales up
Housing starts up
Durable goods orders up
No major layoffs in the news
DOW, S & P are doing good
of course, one swallow doesn’t make a Summer but we are heading in the right direction. Our resident doomsayers are completely silent to the positive news. Cheer Up gloomers.
Where is everybody……….out celebrating?? Is the recession over?? Is everybody looking for a new condo tonight?
I put in an offer yesterday.
DJPoop (under $125 a sq. ft. ) ???
Not quite, but I think it’s a great deal. It’s a short sale and I love the unit and building, so I offered two grand above the asking price (cash). Now it’s just a waiting game while the bank reviews it all.
LOL….didn’t realize I typed DJPoop in!
Miami or Bust: #209: I am busy refinancing my house at 4.x % rate. 🙂 Times are great for people with equity and good credit. I am amazed at how low the rates are. Biggest problem is how long it is taking to go thru process with countrywide….they are swamped right now.
AJ #202: You can’t be serious can you? Are you looking at PERCENTAGE changes? Those are off incredibly low numbers so the percentages have no real meaning. The simple fact is inventories of homes/condos for sale are increasing at a pace that exceeds sales. Supply and demand…..supply and demand. That means prices will continue to decline while this imbalance persists. Moreover, the shadow inventory is increasing too……. Lastly, the sales were across the bottom of the price range…. I recently saw one city sales stat with HALF the homes that sold had a price that was UNDER $50K!
A bottom won’t be reached until supply and demand come into a stable balance of around 6-8 months supply.
What about Japan exports down 49%! Wow! We are going to see more homebuilders go under …and even more developers. The risk in single family homes is in development….the high fixed cost of holding the land along with the infrastructure will kill you if you don’t have the sales velocity…which is why developments are done in phases, even many small ones. A home builders risk is just whatever spec home they build, not the whole development if they buy one lot at a time…. Now with condos, the developer not only has the land development risk but also a home builder risk where they have to build the WHOLE structure in order to even sell ONE unit….or in the ICON’s case, to sell even the 17 they sold. The risk for high rise condo developers is enormous which is why loans aren’t given until contracts for enough to cover the loans are pre-signed…however, that is no guarantee that the loan will get paid off as we have seen!
AJ – Analyze a stat such as durable goods. Durable goods ORDERS jump 3.4% in Feb. BUT wait a minute, they we down 7.3 in Jan. So that means they are down even more than 3.9% from Dec (why more than 3.9% and not just 7.3-3.4=3.9? simple, what is 3.4% of 100-7.3 = So the increase comparatively is really 3.15%, not 3.4% when you compare both Jan and Feb numbers to the base of Dec so they are really still down 4.15% from Dec for Feb. Cherry picking some stats doesn’t show the true picture. Oh, and HURRAY, stocks are down only 45% instead of 55%….everything is fine now, go back out and buy that yacht, get that horse’s back from the dog food factory, un-repo that Porsche, and buy a few million dollar condos….all is fine, come back into the water! LOL
On a true positive note, interest rates are silly great, so refi if you can…..you won’t regret refi-ing into a fixed rate under 5%….that is crazy crazy crazy and a deal of a lifetime! It isn’t an excuse to over pay on an asset though…
Oh, and AJ, with regard to “No major layoffs in the news”, um, you’re wrong (again):
“IBM set for more job cuts in U.S. – Big Blue could soon have large job cuts in the global-business services group, report says”
– 3/25 Headline
Yeah, The percentage is low. But the fact is it is a tiny positive after months of negative. So I am bullish that the dreaded D word is a non starter. I did not say that recession has ended. At least there is light at the end of the tunnel. Looks like recovery will begin anywhere between July to December.
Hello Everyone, I am new in this site, I am planning to buy a 1/1 condo on the 1800 Club, and I would appreciate any comments about the building, the HOA and the area.
I also have a question, being fairly new on the Florida market, I am finding the closing costs associated to buy a new condo directly from the developer to be ver very high, the price tag of the property is about 187K, I am putting 30% down and still the closing costs rae around 11K, which includes a very big developer fee (1.75%) and an extremey costly ware hookup reimbursment (1,400). Could any of you help me understand if all this numbers are just normal and I am just new in the market?
Thanks
CJ,
I love 1800 club. Views there are magnificent and the building has everything that one needs. I never lived in the building but I visited it and liked it. HOA fees are great so far comparing to other buildings/ In re to closing fees: I think that developer’s fee is a negotiable item. 1.75 % is normal for Miami but as everything else is quite negotiable.
Hey Dude,
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