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Down the hall unit 350?, a 2/2 was purchased for $494,000 on 1/08. $442,000 loan from CountryWide. Showing taxes of $7,900. Not showing a homestead exemption. Loan requires owner to move in within 60 days as primary residence, unless they have an exemption Yet they have another address listed on tax records.
Tax records show unit 3505 as 934 sq. feet.
Majority of people who bought as of last year are looking at an easy $100,000 loss.
Wild Bill,
Why do you care what went for how much. This is a great unit and the price for an end user or second home user is irresistible. The question is do you have the money to buy this or will you just keep talking.
Some lucky person is going to get this for 385K. After this unit is gone, the only remaining units are all owner/investor units listed for $485K to $550K. And they will all hold. The way things are going, I won’t be surprised if the recovery begins in July instead of December of this year. And the minute people realize that things might turn around, they are not going to reduce any prices.
These direct East units are worth a million dollars for the people who live in them. May be not for those who want to buy to rent it out. But those who bought to live laugh at talk such as yours. So why don’t you be objective and don’t let the sour grapes attitude take you over.
I think you are the nelly who said that in 1800 Club only 1 foreclosure exists and that there is something wrong about that number. No there is nothing wrong with that number. Yes, it is only one. That shows that the 1800 is a solid building with good stable residents.
You also cast aspersions in the past about the low maintenance and spinning some kind of a conspiracy theory. Again, there is nothing cooked up. Everything is real and above board. The 1800 Club is a smart building (energy saving wise) and also run very diligently by smart people.
And finally stop talking about some imaginary safety issue after all your other scare mongering has been disproved. Just shows desperation. Why don’t you just stop hating those who live in 1800. They worked hard and living a good life. Don’t berate all their achievement in a fit of jealousy. If you can buy something for less than what the others paid, good for you. Come join the party.
The Interior of this condo seriously looks like my 900 sq foot condo in Michigan I paid $89,000 for in 2005 and is now worth $65,000 if I am lucky.
Not sure why anyone would find this to be a deal unless you think a view is worth 300,000.
That’s why don’t believe everything the tax records or MLS says. There is so much bullshit it is not funny. It is a 1222 sf under A/C and 252 sf of balcony.
Christopher,
No offense. I am not trying to be condescending either. Miami is not for you. If the weather, the views and a picture post card paradise like setting is not worth it for you, stay in Michigan. Why pay even $65,000 for a house, there are homes being given away for $100 to $500 in public auctions there. And it is not bad either. Some artsy fartsy people with little money in pocket and big dreams are moving there and revitalizing some devastated Detroit nabes. You should join them.
Please, I am not making fun of you or any such thing. It takes certain people to do certain things.
I will never ever pay to travel business class in a plane. If I get upgraded, fine. If not I won’t pay. I am envious of those sitting in the front but even if I can afford it, I will never pay 4 times to sit up front. Let us say they offered the seat for 3 times or even just twice the coach fare, still it is a no go for me. That is not in my DNA.
But I know that there are tons of people who would travel business and happily pay a premium for it. It is in their DNA!
So when it comes to a Miami condo, you are like me with the plane seat analogy. You love Miami like I love a business class seat. But you will never pay for it. You and your mindset is not built for that. Even if someone offers you a flat in Miami for free, you will still bitch and will not accept the offer as you said before ” The HOA on a Miami condo itself will pay for the Mortgage + Taxes + Maintenance of my Michigan house”
So why bother. It is not in your DNA. It takes a certain individual to appreciate Miami, St Tropez or Monte Carlo and willing to pay a premium to be able to own a piece of it.
Oh and don’t forget the USPS having 150,000 early “retirement”……..
OK, These photos absolutely do not do justice to the flat or the building. Sorry Lucas, not a stellar work.
I posted these pics last year I took of 1800, Pace Park, Views and a Direct East 2/2 flat. For the sake of those who are new to this blog, I will post them again. Also any potential buyers in this building, this is a must see slide show.
Enjoy!
http://picasaweb.google.com/biscaynebay/1800MoonriseOverTheAtlantic#
AJ,
In my opinion it is highly unbelievable for a building with over 450 units that only one unlucky resident was 30 days delinquent on maintenance fees. I know foreclosures are a different story and are not being recorded or processed timely enough banks. The tax appraiser uses adjusted square footage which I did not correctly mention.
“Please take notice of the following before contacting our office; the square footage on the tax records is an adjusted area calculation and will likely differ from “footprint” calculations.”
Using the same adjusted value for this unit and it’s neighbors it could be possible that the developer dropped this unit over $100,000.
I am not jealous of people possibly loosing $100,000 and more. Regardless of the views in 1800 Club units in Miami Beach are seeing 40% losses. This unit is a bargain is it goes to just under $300,000.
Condo developers need to rid themselves of extra units. They under cut previous sales to get rid of units. This immediately devalues the other units which are on the same line and have the same floor plan.
Christopher,
No offense. I am not trying to be condescending either. Miami is not for you. If the weather, the views and a picture post card paradise like setting is not worth it for you, stay in Michigan. Why pay even $65,000 for a house, there are homes being given away for $100 to $500 in public auctions there. And it is not bad either. Some artsy fartsy people with little money in pocket and big dreams are moving there and revitalizing some devastated Detroit nabes. You should join them.
___________________________________________________________
Aj, Why does everyone not from the area assume that the entire state of Michigan is Detroit? Lmfao.
No I would never live in Detroit even if the house was free. I live in the affluent suburbs of Detroit.
Example: THIS IS DETROIT:
http://www.erasmuspc.com/documenten/citypoems/022._detroit_city_poem_1b_by_estimmel.jpg
Example: THIS IS THE SUBURBS OF DETROIT:
http://pimage6.homesandland.com/image/2220/6/41/2220013416.jpg
I go to Detroit once or twice a year to see a game, 99.9% of the time I live in the warm saftey of the self sufficient suburbs which operate independently of the city.
I understand your plane analogy, but trying to compare where I live to the slums of Detroit is just false. There are no 1,000 dollar houses here, trust me. The 1,000 dollar houses are crack houses in the worst slums where you would not drive through much less live.
I believe this building was originally planned as an apartment development and this unit looks like the apartments next door at Bay Park Plaza. If view was my primary consideration I might consider this unit or one at Marina Blue. Both buildings offer small units with bad layouts and great views. What gives with the long bitter comments above?
I’ll admit the views are great. I looked at several units in 1800 and probably would have bought there had the units themselves been nicer. They’re far too small, IMO.
Also, in my humble opinion, this particular unit is still far overpriced. It’s $385k, but since it’s decorator ready, you’re going to have to spend another $30-$40k just to get it ready to move into. Sure you can save some money by putting in cheap laminate and whatnot, but do you really wanna do that if you’re spending this much on a condo? Even if you spent on the low end of my estimate, $30k, that brings the price of the unit up to $415k, which works out to $342/sq. foot.
I think being decorator ready, about $200/sq. foot is about what it’s worth in today’s market.
I was looking at this building too – but I’m not so sure its a good deal – but I definitely love the view.
I bought a Condo report on 1800 Club from condoreports.com and saw that there was another unit in the same line 2305 that sold in early 2008 (must have been a pre construction contract) for $362K – same exact unit type and view just a few floors down. Granted its on the 23rd floor, but we all know what the markets done since early 2008!
I also saw that the developer is holding on to 7 other units in that line – so you’ll probably see pricing drop further – they have around 150 units left that they still own (also saw that on my condoreport).
And as for the market being at the bottom, the FAR stats of 20K units in inventory with 403 closings in February… I’m no genius, but to me that sounds like about 4 years of supply and it doesn’t even count those units developers are holding on to…
Thoughts??
I don’t know AJ personally but just based on his comments above he comes across as a truly elitist prick. Someone needs a little attitude adjustment, or at least to spend some time in poorer parts of the world so that they can lose the chip on their shoulder…
AJ has got his biased head so far up his biased butt it’s a wonder he can see the keyboard! Someone needs a serious reality check — attitude adjustment aside . . . that goes without saying. Good luck finding a good surgeon to help with that other problem. Stop drinking all that kool-aid & pull out for some air.
AJ, nice pictures. Thanks for posting.
mr a j please tell me where the paradise setting is ?? i saw it in the keys, i saw it on the w coast of fla, and maybe key bis cayne and a few other select spots in the 305 but is biscayne a paradise ?
downtown miami is a paradise ??? it reminds me of nyc, but of angry puerto ricans, we have angry cubanos
love mi hente/ bet aj are you from the bronx /?/ palm trees and nice weather alone dont make a paradise
its like this girl that paid 400$ for a coach bag, i had a 25 $ bag for her that was nicer but it wasn’t coach
she used her coach bag for 6 months then got tired of it……..the point is that real estate is like any other item, if you want to come up with many reasons why you are over paying to convince your seld and others its cool because it is your $$
but from an investment stand point or a living in the unit standpoint it may not be the smartest move
i have been seeing many places for 120 k by the beach or aventura or other areas
should i pay 350 because its a ‘COOLER ” BUILDING ” AND TIE MORE $ UP IN IT ??
HAVE U READ THE BOOK THE MILLIONAIRE NEXT DOOR ???
AJ, we continue to have this debate and I am starting to feel that you are getting paid by the developer or something. Are you serious???
Like DJ said, if you buy and spend $30K in getting this unit ready for occupancy, you will be all in for $415k or $340/sf. If you think that is a good price, maybe you will consider buying another unit in the building since you seem to get aroused by this building.
With the developer still holding 150 units or so, how can you not believe that prices will continue to go down?
And BTW, this was probably your best comment yet:
“I won’t be surprised if the recovery begins in July instead of December of this year. And the minute people realize that things might turn around, they are not going to reduce any prices”
GET REAL AND MAYBE READ ABOUT THE CURRENT CRISIS
Off-topic, but this looks cool. First-time home buyers are already eligible for an $8,000 CREDIT, not just a deduction. Basically free money.
GOP Plan Aims to Expand Home Buyer Tax Credits
By Renae Merle
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, March 25, 2009; Page D03
House Republican leaders plan to unveil a housing package today that would increase the tax credits available for home buyers and would direct law enforcement to crack down on mortgage fraud.
Under the proposal, borrowers refinancing their mortgage would be eligible for $5,000 to help cover closing costs or to reduce their principal balance. The plan also revives a $15,000 home buyer tax credit proposal that Republicans pushed last year. This time, the proposal would require the borrower to have at least a 5 percent down payment. Both programs would expire in July 2010.
“We want to make sure responsible homeowners are able to purchase homes and stay in their homes,” said House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who will introduce the legislation. “If you can get a $15,000 tax credit, that is a tremendous incentive to get qualified buyers back into the game.”
Brendan Daly, a spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), said he had not seen the proposal but that Democrats are committed to strengthening the housing market. “We have already seen a boost in home sales due to the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers in the economic recovery package signed into law last month by President Obama,” Daly said.
The Republican proposal also calls for providing additional resources to law enforcement agencies, including the FBI, to investigate and prosecute mortgage fraud. According to a recent study by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute, mortgage fraud jumped by 26 percent last year compared with 2007 even though fewer loans were issued nationally.
Republicans have not attached a price tag to their proposal and it is unclear whether they could gather enough support from Democrats to move the measure ahead.
The proposal also comes as lenders implement a two-part Obama administration plan to revive the housing market. It includes a program allowing borrowers with little home equity to refinance and a $75 billion program to give lenders incentives to lower payments for troubled homeowners.
HOUSING TURN AROUND /??? SUREEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!! U N E M P L O Y M E N T
MAYBE IN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY I THOUGHT THIS BLOG WAS ABOUT THE CITY OF MIAMI ??
THE AVERAGE SALARY IN MIA IS ??? THERE ARE NO MAJOR CORPORATIOS THAT ARE PLANNING TO MOVE TO MIA
UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO RISE TOURISM IS DOWN
WHO IS BUYING ALL THESE CONDOS IN AT BEST AVERAGE AREAS LIKE BRICK AND DOWNTOWN ???
NY ERS ??? FUH GHET ABOUT IT ??? S AMERICANS >>> MAYBE SOME/
MIAMIANS THAT MAKE 80-140 THOUSAND A YEAR ??? ARE THERE ANY ???
FORECLOSURES ARE MUCH HIGHER, BANKS HAVE KEPT THEM OFF THE BOOKS,
PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP, IF U DONT NEED THE BEST LINE IN A BUILDING OR EVEN THE “BEST BUILDING” WHICH IS ALL BS ANYWAY THEY ARE ALL BRICK AND GLASS
LOOK FOR ANOTHER 40-60 % LOWER PRICES IN 2010-2011 SO WHY WOULD U BUY NOW
WAS THAT THE SAME GUYS BUYING STOCKS ON THE WAY DOWN, ???? ITS NOT A V SHAPE RECOVERY
RELAX AND WAIT FOR THE BEST DEAL ITS A BUYERS MARKET AND WILL BE FOR THE NEXT 4 YEARS
Are the tax credits available for non-US buyers?
AJ, the pictures are superb. I think for the end buyer who is considering living in this area it is a good deal. In Miami prices probably countinue going down a bit but in Ft.Myers in good areas like Cape Coral foreclosure prices stopped going down and actually started going up a tiny bit. Investors and end buyers are buying houses in big numbers from all over the country and abroad. It is actually a bidding war. In Miami I see 2-3 deals/ day worth investing in great areas. They are mostly condo conversions on the beach and across from the beach but in Downtown area as well.
Financing is a huge problem that I see in today’s real estate market otherwise people would start buying in much bigger numbers.
Julian, below is an excerpt from this website: http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/home2.html
“I am not a U.S. citizen. Can I claim the tax credit?
Maybe. Anyone who is not a nonresident alien (as defined by the IRS), who has not owned a principal residence in the previous three years and who meets the income limits test may claim the tax credit for a qualified home purchase. The IRS provides a definition of “nonresident alien” in IRS Publication 519.”
What do you guys think of Artech and Aventura in general? Is the population young and hip?
DJ
Good luck on your purchase. Please keep us posted. It will be interesting to see how the banks are re-acting to short sales in a real time situation like yours. Can you give us a few more details without being exact about whether your offer was in one of the newer buildings or an established building and if so did you verify the delinquency ratio? Im guessing this is not an investment but as an end user. Thanks.
Artech
No it is not young and is not hip unless your talking about hip replacements.
Lucas why did you moderate my comment response to AJ?
Kramer,
Yeah I don’t wanna jinx myself by give up too many details, but the building is a new one. Hell, if you’ve read my posts here over the last few months you can probably figure out which one I’m talking about….same one I’ve loved since I first saw some units there about 6 months ago. I don’t know the exact delinquency ratio, but the association is still in the hands of the developer, and probably will be for some time.
Anyway, the current owner bought the place in 12/07 for $590k, and I put in an offer of $371k cash (asking price was $369k, but at that price, I was concerned there may be other offers). The unit is 1750 sq. feet, corner unit, best line in the building with direct unobstructed bay views. It’s also decked out with marble floors throughout, window treatments, lighting, etc. The listing agent is splitting his commission with a guy that has been negotiating short sales for 10 years, and they did their homework and are confident the bank will approve this price, based on comps, etc. I’ve got my fingers crossed, but I’m not gonna get too excited until I actually get an approval letter.
The best part is, last month I offered the developer $350k cash for similar unit, only decorator ready and three floors lower. Their asking price was $540k, and I stated with my offer than it was firm and I wasn’t going to be negotiating. They countered at $499k so I laughed and walked. I can tell you this, the developer is gonna be kicking himself for passing that up if this short sale goes through.
Christopher,
It went into “awaiting moderation” because there were too many links. I just approved it.
How long is a developer obligated to pay HOA on unsold units? For example, how long is Jorge Perez obligated to pay HOA on the unsold units (+/- 1,700 units) at Icon Brickell? If someone buys a unit at Icon Brickell, is there any assurance that elevators will continue running, pools will be cleaned, hallways lit, doormen/valets will be on duty, etc. for any particular length of time?
You mean the shower and tube aren’t separate??? YOU’VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME! I can’t even remember the last time I used a tube shower combine….except on the rare hotel where they aren’t separate. But in a home for $400K, you have got to be kidding me…… Oh but they have stainless steel appliances…. LOL
Even worse….the one AJ posted, has a “jacuzzi” tub with the tub/shower combo! Wow, that thing will never be used as a jacuzzi….what a useless feature gimmick! Most of these cheapo jacuzzis are worthless.
AJ – what kind of floor is that with grout lines? My preference is to not use a white grout, but one that matches the tile color would have been a good choice in the future.
AJ babbled: “But those who bought to live laugh at talk such as yours. So why don’t you be objective and don’t let the sour grapes attitude take you over.”
Why don’t you just “live the good life” and STFU?
Your ramblings are like fingernails scratching a chalkboard.
Lara,
I heard about Cape Coral that it is actually doing very good.
Tom,
I use the Jacuzzi. It works really fantastic. Pour yourself a glass of wine, put on some nice music and relax in your tub with some bath salts. It will do you some wonders. Candle lights optional.
The next time I will hire you to do my interiors. In any case, before I move in myself, I will be redoing the entire place. I will do the seamless grout free flooring the way you like.
Person said: “I don’t know AJ personally but just based on his comments above he comes across as a truly elitist prick. Someone needs a little attitude adjustment, or at least to spend some time in poorer parts of the world so that they can lose the chip on their shoulder…”
AJ is a card-carrying Obamunist who hails from one of the world’s great sewers!
The problem with AJ is that he definitely did not grow up in the US and so his perceptions always clash with the majority of this board. This live for the moment we can change the world blah blah works for Sardinia and other European areas that have 2-hour lunches, and also worked for the Obama campaign; but in reality it doesn’t fly in the U S of A
To the average male millionaire that grew up in USA Suburbia and went to college then got paid, this quote from AJ below would be as enjoyable as plucking out an eyeball and AJ wouldn’t understand why…
“I use the Jacuzzi. It works really fantastic. Pour yourself a glass of wine, put on some nice music and relax in your tub with some bath salts. It will do you some wonders. Candle lights optional.”
The problem with those tiny jacuzzi tubs that are dual showers/tubs is that you have to make sure the tub is perfectly clean before using. I certainly wouldn’t want to use one in most hotels….even 5 star if the jacuzzi wasn’t separate. Do you really want to bath where people stand and shower? Moreover, the jacuzzi lines need to purged and cleaned on a monthly basis (at least) to prevent buildup of bacteria etc. They are a sales gimmick, have very weak and misplaced jets, and most people will admit they rarely if ever use one. Better to just soap in the jacuzzi by the pool or in a high quality spa.
I wouldn’t spend good money on a condo with a master bath that didn’t have a separte tub and shower. It is VERY costly to change later (unless you just make it a shower and forgo the tub) if it is even feasible in these condos. The condo I am in has a separate large two person jacuzzi with decent jets so I use it. You might even be able to squeeze in 3 people for the more adventurist…..but then again, AJ jacuzzi’s alone so the little one is OK for him! LOL Just kidding.
I think people are being a little hard on AJ…..he loves 1800 and he sticks by his guns, nothing wrong with that. I don’t necessarily agree with a lot of his opinions, but it’s always nice to have those contrary views.
AJ – How can you use the Jacuzzi if you have the place rented out???
DJ
You got me goin now. So with all due respect – what is the maintenance fee and why arent u worried about the delinquency rate? Im guessing over $1000. I mean $200 per sq ft and direct unobstructed water view is a steal and would assauge any concern over the maintencance fee, but id still want to know how many arent paying and an answer to Samsons question post #27 about how long the developer is obligated to pay maint. on unsold units. Because as the case with “Wind” where the bank foreclosed on over 200 units I believe Florida law caps their maint responsiblity at only 6 months or 1%. This is the issue holding me back from making an offer on some of the newer buildings downtown/brickell/pace. Im guessing “One Miami” since i havent followed your posts.
I have a jacuzzi in my townhouse. I used it once in almost 5 years now. That one time was to make sure it works. lol I am not getting rid of it because it will hurt resale value according to my realtor.
The view from this condo is awesome.
Kramer, it’s definately not one miami….I didn’t even look at that place because I heard so many bad things about it. The maintenance fee is $580/month. The building is 60% closed at this point. Like I said, it’s still in the developer’s hands, so that will likely go up at some point, but I don’t think it will be switching to HOA anytime soon unless there’s a bulk sale. Even then, it likely won’t go up by more than $100-150/month (just my guess). From what I’ve heard too, this particular developer is in far better shape than a lot of other ones down here, so I’m not too worried.
RT, come on…! You have 2 bathrooms. Use one just for Jacuzzi and another one to shower. You turned out to be a real elitist. Where is it coming from? Midwest?
lara,
re: Cape Coral
I wasn’t going to post.
But these incredible deals in Cape Coral.
Just how many have YOU bought?
I guess you’ll sucker some Europeans… maybe.
(You and I know that there are entire subdivisions from the 50s that have been reclaimed to swamp, hundreds of square miles, not far from there.)
How can you live with yourself prostituting your integrity this way?
At least AJ believes his insanity.
lara – For those prices….$400-$500 s.f. in this OVERBUILT market, unbelievable that you don’t get a separate shower! Come on, you’d have to be an utter fool to buy one of these things or were just dazzled by the status of owning one of these condos with all the glitz of granite countertops! A good master bathroom should be included, but a tub/shower combo is ancient! They don’t even build those in the MB of new homes these days do they??? Only trailer trash buys a tub/shower combo!!! I guess these are just vertical trailer parks!!!!! About the same size as one too, same quality (although trailers come with flooring!). I think there are several trailer parks that have a nice pool, etc. so I think the trailer park analogy is appropriate. I know, what can I do to convince someone to pay me a half million but don’t even give them a separate shower in the MB! hehehehehehehe Funny thing is, people went from bragging about owning one of these things (usually more) at cocktail parties to being a social laughing stock except that now we can hate those people too for contributing to the housing bubble.
Wow…..someone pissed in renter tom’s diamond crusted frosted flakes this morning.
Christopher
don’t forget to include maserati rick in your detroit synopsis. he completes the circle
AJ
i’m not sure why you love this building so much. regardless of lucas’s pics, the unit is just not that spectacular. in the end, you’re paying for a view. i guess if that’s what you really want, sure, make the purchase.
DJ – Not pissed, just being facetious…..maybe even a tad funny. But it is true, some of these sub 1,000 s.f. condos are about the size of a trailer except with the higher end appliances. You have to admit it is sad to have a combo tub-shower for those price points….. Not only that, it appears that AJ was going to put in SHOWER CURTAINS! Wow, talk about low rent.
THIRSTY?
“Broward County cuts off water to townhouse community
$8,100 owed to Broward; 60 percent of owners delinquent on fees”
— Oh, and the comments section of the article in #47 is pretty entertaining….all it is missing is an AJ to tell those that own the townhomes how lucky they are to own there and how envious everyone is of them even without water! I’m sure these things will get snapped up….by July!
DJ,
My guess is you made an offer for a unit at the Lexi since you had expressed interest in that building before. Just had two further questions. Is the best line in the building the one that is on the SE corner? And what’s the current tax on that particular unit? Good luck with your offer.
Tom,
don’t talk about little ones. The one who talks the most (about lil ones) is the one who’s got it 🙂
Unrelated,
OK, You made some bad investment choices and lost some money. My heart goes out to you. That is why I have never criticized you on this blog. I even put up with your constant bitching about Jorge Perez. You want to make us believe as if he is your bosom buddy who personally fucked you over. Your rants are worse than those of a woman scorned.
You are the only person on this blog that I know personally. But I have never ever outed you or disrespected you. But if you keep attacking me unprovoked, I will not restrain myself on this blog any longer.
So I respectfully urge you to BACK OFF!!
Muir,
Do not use such profane language when you are addressing a lady. You can use the choicest nasty words when engaging me or other guys on this blog. But a line must be drawn when you are talking directly to a woman.
We have just one regular female contributor on this blog and we all should be grateful that she is even here. You must apologize to Lara and become relevant again.
Ohhhhh, AJ is making THREATS! #51
– Time for AJ to be removed permanently from this blog. It is unfortunate, AJ does the name calling, the swearing, the profanity, the belittling others…..but now he has crossed the line to making threats to out people, presumably to post someone’s name. That is it, time to go bye bye. Clearly, AJ wanted to meet me in person to somehow … he has asked me repeatedly … that he is some sort of psycho and for the health and well being of all who post here, he should go away at once.
Petronius,
Yep, you got it…..I guess the cat’s outta the bag. IMO, the SW corner is actually the best line. That’s what this particular unit is. The SE corner is also quite nice, and probably just a matter of preference as to which you’d think was better.
Property taxes should be arond $8,000/year with a homestead exemption….maybe even a little lower. The tax estimator on miamidade.gov put them at just under $7,000
AJ,
You should be very careful about making threats.
If you know Unrelated then he knows you too. What if we made a website solely devoted to you, examining all your past customers and transactions with a fine toothed comb. I’m sure we could find something interesting. Any drug use in your past? I could find it. Who do you associate with? Any known criminals? I would find them too. Your biased, profiteering, irrational exuberance presents a real, credible financial threat to your clients and perhaps they should be made aware of who they are dealing with.
Let me explain something to YOU AJ. This is the United States, this isn’t the banana republic cesspool you came from. We have rights here like the freedom of speech that we do not cede. The fact that someone else speaks to a woman with a directness and pointedness that you find uncomfortable is irrelevant. She is a big girl and she will get over it. The rest of us don’t need to tailor our speech to your liking.
DJ,
Thanks for the info. I can see how you might like the view from the SW corner more.
Still not sure whether it’s a very good deal at the price you offered but at least it is reasonable relative to some of the rents there and since you’re paying all cash it’s really just a matter of what kind of opportunity cost you’re willing to bear. I do like the building as well and can see why you are eager to get the unit that you want.
As Ari Gold says, can you guys just hug it out? I appreciate the back and forth between AJ and RT and others but only when it stays on topic of real estate. These personal attacks and threats are silly and have no place here.
AJ,
I think she’s been around the block a couple of times.
(p.s. I haven’t dished your digs, if you noticed. I always respect a dudes digs.)
DJ, what bad things did you hear about One Miami?
“I have never ever outed you ”
Un-releated is in the closet?
That explains alot, no wonder he has so much repressed anger.
It’s ok Un-releated, you can come out of your closet.
You should try geting some professional help to deal with your issues, it is not good for you walking around with all that hatered.
Petronius, IMO it’s a good deal…..but hey, no one can predict what tomorrow’s gonna bring.
I’m looking for a nice condo to live in for a number of years, as I have no plans to leave Miami at any point in the forseeable future. To that end, I looked at a TON of different units in a TON of different buildings, and found everything I wanted in this unit and building for about half the price of anything else I saw that was comparable. Maybe in that regard it has a certain intrinsic value beyond the cost (….I’m starting to sound like AJ here).
In terms of an investment pont of view, there will be a floor on prices at some point. I know a lot of people on here have been barking $125.00/ sq. foot over and over for months….even $85.00/sq. foot, and I think we probably will see those prices for some units here in MIA at some point. I don’t think that price point is realistic for premium, direct water view units like the one I’m under contract for now, however. $200.00/ sq. foot, yes, but $125.00/ sq. foot, I cannot see that. In my opinion, I think the price I’m getting this at represents the floor for this particular building. Sure, I could be totally wrong, but I’m willing to take that chance.
Hypothetically speaking, if after 5 years when I’m ready to sell, the price is exactly the same as I paid for it, or even less, I really don’t care, because that would mean prices had fallen across the board, and I’ll just buy something else at that point at those deflated prices. Sure I would have lost on this particular unit, but I won’t have to worry about being upside down. With no leverage, the only risk is losing a bit of money on the initial investment, and I’m willing to take that chance. Plus, I seriously doubt we will not have seen a recovery that far down the road. Even if I wanted to hold the unit after 5 years or so when I’m ready for a new place, I could rent it out, and it would be cash flow positive. I also want to hedge agaisnt inflation, which is another reason I want to buy a condo now.
Just my two cents.
One more thing, the cash in using to buy this place isn’t making shit on the money market right now, so I’d rather sink it into a nice place to live than keep getting a tiny fraction of a percentage on it.
Miami2009, I’ve never set foor in One Miami, so everything I’ve heard has been second hand, but from what I have been told….the walls are really thin, and you can hear everything, the valet is a complete mess, and there are tons of college kids renting there and the place seems like a frat house a lot of the time. I still party a lot but I’d rather not shit where I eat, if you get what I’m saying.
“But if you keep attacking me unprovoked, I will not restrain myself on this blog any longer.”
Since when are those statements considered threats?
I’ll admit AJ is Batshit Crazy about 1800 but that statement hardly constitute a threat.
– Tired of AJ
This is a silly blog about Miami Condos with a bunch of posters who have little else to occupy their time. There is no need to take anything written on this blog so seriously as to dedicate a website to AJ or anyone else on this blog. That would only serve the purpose of making you look like a certified nut job.
Muir,
I know that the language that you use is probably how you were brought up. Such an idiotic comment. The main thing that you throw it without any knowlendge like Hugo chavez. Are you his relative?
In fact almost all of my buyers were local from either Lee county or from Miami. HA-ha!
And you know what? They are very happy. Unlike you they enjoy their positive cash flows. And they know the area much better than you.
Lara,
you said positive cashflow? How much, Do you have any examples you can give of deals you have done that generates positive cashflow? I am asking because I am an investor and have been inqusitive about the deals in SW florida. What is the sweet spot of the market for investors interested in cashflow and what service do you provide, are you a realator secalizing in that area?
I am an investor like you. I am doing whole saling in this area. I use my resources, cash, teams of inspectors, appraisors, rehabbers, realtors. I buy houses somewhere in the area of $40,000-$65,000( depends on location, sq.ft. year bult and amount of repairs necessary) and then I reassign them to the end buyer whether for cash or they obtain financing. These are mainly REOs. Depends on how you buy but if you buy for cash positive cashflow(minus all expenses) can be around $250-$500. There are other factors that influence the cashflow. I do not want to go into details here because if you go deep into the subject the lecture can take about 2 hours to learn all little things that have a play here.
Also these houses are appraised at least 50% higher and they are about 50% below the replacement cost. There is a big potential for prices to go up in the next 2-5 years. IT looks like in Ft.Myers area (good places) prices have bottomed. Obviously it my evaluation of the situation but I follow it up every day very closely.
Lara,
You’re full of it.
You never answered the question: these great deals, how many have YOU bought?
Keep prostituting your integrity, it’s normal by now to you.
You are a salesperson, that’s all.
Cape Coral makes Brickell a VERY good long term investment by comparison.
Keep strutting your stuff honey.
AJ,
I changed my mind.
You digs suck.
Lara,
do you have a website for potiental investors and deals that you have available?
Muir,
why the hostility toward Lara, do you know something a potiental investor should be aware of about her?
OK RT, yeah right. The little dog is barking at the behest of his paymasters.
And you actually think that I am salivating to meet you? You poor bastard!
I am sure you are nothing but a paper tiger with not even 2 red cents to rub together.
Your statements are clearly indicative.
Firstly any reasonable person from Boston, New York, Chicago will never make stupid statements like “I never used a combination tub/shower”. Neither would anyone from London, Paris or Frankfurt. Separate tub and showers are an extreme rarity even in millionaires flats in these cities and around the World. But I am actually tired of your ignorance of the World around you. So no point in even trying to educate you. But at other times you might be acting with malice.
And when it comes to Unrelated, I know what I said. I said I will not be restraining myself anymore on this blog if he attacks me unprovoked. There was never a talk of giving out someones name. I think that is something you guys would do as time and again you and your coterie has proved that you will stoop to any low.
Guess what, I am on this blog especially because there are people like you here. There are many a times, I thought WTF, why should I care. But you guys give me the fuel necessary to keep going. You want to see me go away? Then stop talking bull shit.
Oh AJ, you really ought to improve your reading comprehension … or the meds have side effects or something. I said I wasn’t including some HOTELS, I was referring to tub/shower combos in my houses and condos. Seriously, to pay that much and get a combo is silly…..you’re a sucker, admit it! Even in some hotels now they have separate showers, not just combos……. Moreover, the jacuzzi thing for these is a gimmick…the jets do almost nothing except being a breading ground for disease.
You have posted at least a half dozen times about meeting me…..creepy and weird.
I’m from Boston and have a separate tub and shower. Homes with the combination are usually smaller, without the extra room for both, or older construction. In the newest construction, it isn’t unusual to see only a large shower and no tub.
Regarding Pace Park area, it seems that Paramount Bay will have the highest quality and best amenities. Seems worthwhile to me to wait for a great price on one of these units, assuming one chooses the neighborhood. Thoughts?
Are you guys seriously debating bathtub-shower combo on this blog? What guy gives a hoot about that debate? I’m sorry, call me homophobic but I usually raise an eyebrow when men conversate about baths. I fu*king hate taking baths. The only way you’ll catch me in a bathtube is with a chick and even then I’m trying to get out as fast as possible because the water is always way too f*@king hot. I just don’t like the feeling of basting in hot water. I just don’t get the fascination people have with bathrooms. I just don’t get why people put so much money and importance on a place where you spend all of 5 min a day to do some unmentionables.
I’m off to the gym!
AJ,
Thank you for posting those pictures. Very extensive and really shows off the views of your condo. The views are to die for and I love watching the cruise ships and the park lite up at night is an added treat! Which line of units do you recommend in this building? Which line did you buy and why? I really like expansive views and am looking to buy a condo as a second home. Will any future building block these views and will the condo fees be heading up anytime soon?
Thanks for posting!
Anna
makes me think,
you got me cracking up.
Anna,
1) Lines 5 and 7 are the best 2 BR flats. If you can afford it line 1 (3BR) is really really nice with a great layout and all around balconies.
2) No, the views are for ever. The park is leased to the city of Miami on a 99 year lease by the Margaret Pace foundation exclusively to be used as a park.
3) Your HOA fees are as good a guess as mine. But there is one thing going for 1800 compared to the others. They built it keeping in mind saving on everything on a day to day basis. There are no extras or unnecessary frills. Quite a few things have been done to keep the staff to a minimum. There are no gigantic Atrium lobbies or double and triple height party/common rooms. So we save on electric to light up and chill such huge areas and need minimum staff to up keep as well. The building also is installing smart lighting and energy efficient everything.
Will the HOA go up? Sure. But no where close to what will happen in the other buildings. The 2/2 maintenance is $519/month against $700 and up for similar in other buildings.
But the most important thing of all is the developer and the residents including the board all work towards running a tight ship with no wastage. That is the kind of building one should get into. The views are just a bonus.
“Separate tub and showers are an extreme rarity even in millionaires flats in these cities and around the World. ”
Hmmm, just visited an unit at Emerald that had separate shower/bathtub. Very common.
DJ, thanks for the response on One Miami.
Enzo, what did you think about Emerald? I know the HOA fees are very high.
Anyone know whats going on at Solaris in Brickell? Seems the prices are really taking a big hit all the sudden.
Some FL markets show slight rebound…not in price, but in activity and closings.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/106815/Some-Real-Estate-Markets-Warming-Up
AJ said: “But I have never ever outed you or disrespected you. But if you keep attacking me unprovoked, I will not restrain myself on this blog any longer.”
Watch out big boy or your name, address, address, and cell number will magically appear on this and a hundred other fine blogs. It was another greasy foreigner who bought condos in bulk to rent out, got foreclosed on by four banks owing $2 Million, and the blew town……while costing me $10K in lost deposits, rents and moving expenses that gave me this attitude.
My losses at Big Gorge’s casino pale in comparison to what you will lose in the next few years. Down the street at the other “to remain unnamed building”, I got back a NET of 88% ofm my deposits without filing a suit.
No, pal it’s the greasy half-legal illegal alien and his gun-and-run stunt that sticks in my craw. YOU remind me of this loser….the difference being you are from three countries east of him. I would strongly advise you to leave me alone and if you will cease with the endless dronings, I will do the same.
Don’t like it? Maybe I can get Immigration to check you out. They have a special on one-way” tickets…..
Have a nice evening.
Dudes, lay off the personal attacks and shit. This isn’t the place for it.
Thank you AJ for your honest response. I will have to check out this building for sure! I am looking for a 2 bedroom condo so there is room for friends and family to visit and I also believe that a 2 bedroom is a better investment than a 1 bedroom, no need for a 3 bedroom.
Your photographs are fantastic! Even the checkerboard wall that people didn’t like looks good in your photos! The views are amazing! How high up were these photos taken? They look maybe a bit higher than I would be comfortable since I don’t like being too high! What is the lowest floor that you would recommend for lines 5 and 7?
Just to chime in, I definitely like a shower that is separate from the tub so I’d probably just replace the tub in the master bedroom with a shower only and leave the tub and shower as is in the guest bedroom.
Unrelated,
If some “greasy” foreigner gave you “this attitude”, don’t show it on me.
Anyway after reading your mindless post and threats to report a US citizen to Immigration and give them a one way ticket, I am actually feeling even more sorry for you. I thought you were only off a bit. But this totally certifies you.
You want to give out my cell no. and address, go ahead. You think I even care? I gave my real name here and also the entire world knows where I bought and those who want to find out who I am can go to 1800 and ask for me.
Hate the foreigners all you want. They are here to stay. Join some white supremacist organization to vent your xenophobia. This blog has no place for you.
Anna,
Two things.
You are very right. Many people do not like to live totally up in the sky.
The activity in the Pace park is extremely entertaining. You can watch the joggers, ball players, the dog antics and their owners and a myriad of entertainment from your balcony. But as you keep going over the 30th floor, you see less and less detail of such everyday free entertainment.
So in my opinion, if endless Ocean view is not very important for you, You will be happy to pick any floor from 11 to 25. It will even cost you less than floors 26 to 42. At 11th floor and above, you clear the coconut trees and the views are equally great of the Biscayne Bay. But you will not see the Atlantic Ocean clearly up to the 25th floor as it will be obscured by South Beach, Miami Beach, Port, Sunny Isles and Hallandale. 25th floor and over, you will start seeing the Atlantic Ocean.
DJ
Not familiar with your building. Ill have to drive by to see where its at and check out the neighborhood. As I said earlier a couple of the issues holding me back right now are Maintenance fees and propert taxes. Yours at $580. for 1750 sq feet is very reasonable as i see most units with that sq footage at $1000. and over. As for your taxes I suspect it would pay, when the time comes to contest taxes at $8000. if you paid $370,000 because the assessed value will show up considerably higher. I hear the system is so stressed when contesting that its almost automatic for them to approve a reduction of some sort as I believe the new appraisers office now is allowing for short sales and some foreclosure adjustments into the latest valuations.
Kramer, definately check it out. I live across from AJ’s beloved Pace Park right now, and was looking at buildings that the downtown/midtown area. I hadn’t even considered North Bay Village until my realtor recomended we check out the Lexi, and I knew after seeing that building that is was just what I was looking for. The building has a sales center through the developer so just give them a call and they’ll give you a tour of the building and units. There are three floorplans, the smallest is 1450 sq. feet and there are two right around 1750 sq. feet. Maintenance for the smaller unit is about $100/month cheaper. If you have any specific questions, email me at djpoop @ aol . com….just take out the spaces. I’ve got some pictures I took of one of the developers units too that I can email.
Interesting story in the Miami Herald today about boat tours being offered by realtors
DJ, Kramer
You are right about Lexi. The main reason why the HOA’s are that low is that the building has just the right amount of ammenities: A small lobby, a decent sized pool, a club room and a decent sized gym. Corridors are simple and the units are very good size with great finishes and incredible views.
This is the building where you want to live and not get too concerned with owners flaking out. It’s not right on the water like others in NoBay Village but at your price is well worth it.
The corner units are amazing.
I was recently told by a manager that works for a condo management company that manages several Brickell condos that they are a financial disaster with many owners not paying dues, the assoc had no money to do anything, one building had to close their pool in December because they lack $$$, and repairs and maintenance are nonexistent. Crazy. Anyone know of any specific building…. Heard Jade over there was a NIGHTMARE!
The problem with pricing at Lexi and any other buildings in North Bay Village is the excess supply. There have been close to 1000 units of supply added in North Bay Village in the last 10 years. A couple of the older projects there have reached full occupancy but some of those finished toward the end of the cycle are far from it.
Lexi has only had a 50-60% closing rate. There are three new buildings that were just completed in the last couple of months that seem to have no closings at all (Cielo on the Bay, Eloquence on the Bay and Adagio). Blue Bay Tower which was completed a few years back has around 2/3 of the unit in foreclosure proceedings. All five of those buildings target the same luxury level of the market (large sq. ft. floorplans, above average finishes, etc…). In addition there is Space 01 (although its loft style apartments are for a different segment of the market) and the less luxury oriented buildings like 360 and Bridgewater. Those buildings have either unsold inventory or escalating foreclosures.
I don’t think one can look at North Bay Village as a separate part of the market of course but I’m not certain where the prices there will settle relative to other alternatives (Brickell, Biscayne Corridor, Aventura, North Beach, Sunny Isles etc…) But with all the excess supply in each of these neighborhoods there should be a relative equilibrium in clearing prices between them. The $200 DJ is paying may be fine to secure the specific unit that he wants but I imagine prices will dip below that throughout the buildings in N Bay Village in order to clear the inventory. There are already some listed units in other buildings below $200 and even those are not moving.
Glad to see we are back to real estate! North bay Village has got my attention now. Seems you can get more sqft and lower HOA than in Brickell or Miami Beach. Some units are well below 200sqft. I have never been through the 79th st causeway. Is there anything in the area, eg, restaurants, shopping, etc? Or is everything driving distance?
i can say with pretty good confidence that developer prices at lexi will probably be coming down further, which of course will put pressure on individual unit sales.
DJ, not saying you shouldn’t buy there…it’s a good building…has some of the better views in miami, but, there are potential storm clouds on the horizon (as is the case with most new construction).
Anyone been to the WMC and Ultra? How is it compared to last year?
Miami2009……there are lot of restuarants, shops, etc. in the N. Bay Village area. I hate to use the word, but it’s a really cute little area and has a nice community feel to it. Plus you’re only a few miles from Collins Ave., so just quick drive to Miami Beach/SoBe. You’re right though, overall you get more square footage and lower maintenace than other areas like brickell or downtown. I’m really not sure why that is, but I’m not complaining.
Here i was looking to rent in the brickell/downtown/arts district as my existing landlord was in , what else, foreclosure. So i did my own sorties into multiple bldgs.
First “deal” was this $1800/mo w/ full bay view in The club at brickell bay. But as soon as i entered the lobby, i sniffed something wrong…awful decor, had a musty smell and rather listless staff. Saw a few unkempt latinas sashaying around w/ few tattooed guys. It smelled funny. The elevator area seemed rather unremarkable. The agent took me to the unit. .
The wooden floor seemed ok but carried the scars of a foreclosure from perhaps some AJesque investor gone overboard. The view was fantastic and yet the balcony was ill-constructed w/ water collecting on the floor. Units were large perhaps 1600+ sq ft but the bldg ambiance seemed more as if it belonged to little havana. What a disgrace as the location of the bldg was simply awesome.
Disheartened, my agent said may be a good deal can be had not in snooty brickell but in up & coming arts district (i have heard that “up & coming” thing before, so i grimaced) but anyhoo , i ventured forward to go to 1800 club.
As much as The club at brickell was a disaster, the location was a gem. But here i was trudging northward and could see the degradation around farther north we drove. And there it was a rather sadate looking 1800 club.
As soon as i entered 1800 lobby, again i am surrounded by mediocrity. The decor was just awful. But that wasn’t my priority. Overall ambiance seemed a little better than the Club. Again rather unremarkable corridor area. And there was the unit.
The moment we entered the unit, the lack of space compared to the the unit i just saw was jarring. Appliances appear little better than Club but nothing to right home about. Boxy, suffocating units and city view that was plain atrocious filled me w/ angst as the building was located on the fringe of dingy squalor. While the Club at Brickell emanated seediness, this place oozed mediocrity. And $1850 for unit that is less than 1200 sqft, it seemed way overpriced. Not to give up so easily, the agent escorted me to a near by park that seemed nice from a distance. An inspection from up close, however, brought up few issues. A few muscular african american men were playing basketball and few others vollyball. It did not convey to me a settled family kinda milieu but rather of the brusque & unfamiliar. Some appeared out of place as i wondered aloud if they were residents or loiterers.
Dejected but not to give up, my agent had a brainwave. He already noticed my partiallity towards brickell, so he offered to show another unit in Axis, claiming it was built by the great arch firm of architectonica. He averred, its proximity to beautiful mary brickell village will simply clinch the deal for me. ” You can simply take free metromover to hop around the downtown area” he gushed. The idea appeared very intriguing.
So here i was in front of gigantic 2 towers w/ very appealing facade of metal lattice. Called Axis, the architecture is indeed marvelous. Rows of storefronts on the ground floor beckoning future retailers with eye catching advertising sit demurely waiting for their debuts. I wondered if would be few weeks or more likely few months.
As we are “valeted” in, the spartan ambiance was perhaps to the tune of the times. The elavator area was nice enough. Dark & striated carpets overlay corridor floors seem much older than they were but not shabby at all. And their was this unit.
As soon as we entered, a rather odd looking den confronted us first. “There goes my office area” , i murmured. However, at 1235 sq ft on an enticing rent of $1650, this unit got my attention. Kitchen & bathroom seemed fancy enough. The floors were carpetted even though i would have preferred wooden floors. Closets seemed big enough to address our sartorial requirements. The agent that proceeded to open the door to the balcony.
And there it was. A 45′ long balcony, that took my breadth away. Yes, it was not bayfront but a sizeable portion of bay body is there to see. My wife assures me that this afford far better protection during those pesky hurricanes. The balcony area itself was 250 sq ft making the entire unit about 1500 sq ft. This rental seemed like a deal.
Not to be so easy to be pleased, i inquired about the amenities and public areas. The agent took me to this beautiful deck w/ infinity pool that seemed similar to the one in Icon that i had gone for goerge perez event to impress investors a month or so ago. A nice jacuzzi and another pool seemed to complement the area rather well. A built up grassy area for kids lay ahead.
Gym,sauna, yoga rooms thrown in as additional benefits. A fabulous, large entertainment area for the guests was just icing on the cake that ended the tour of the building. I asked about the occupancy, and the agent quoted me a figure of 60%.
Out of the Axis, the agent took me to area around the building and that fabulous mary brickell village. He was right, this building is just beautifully located. Adjacent to mary brickell, rows of eateries with variety of cusine available and the fact that i did not even need to drive to get there really drove home the point. The area seemed more like coconot grove in that patch. Sweet.
To the west lay the Brickel metro station. And that free metromover.
Needless to say, i signed on the dotted lines. Axis , it is.
How cute that “andi” can inject some racism into the very poorly written post above.
“unkempt Latinas sashaying around”, “ambience…like Little Havana”, and “muscular African American men playing basketball.”
And you’re condo shopping in downtown Miami–what the hell do you expect, Jackass? Go to Naples, Fla if you can’t handle the diversity.
I hope you fall off your new 45′ balcony and get run over by a truck, preferably driven by a black or Hispanic.
Petronius, DJ, jcrimes:
I think you have to consider North Bay Village in the same market as Downtown, specially if you are looking for a building where you can live with a family and want/need more space.
Just consider this, if you are able to get a deal like DJ ($370k for 1,750 sf or $211/sf), do you think it is worth it to pay $385k for 1,222 sf here? Also, if developer prices drop a bit more like jcrimes is suggesting, the deal is a no brainer.
Also, the Lexi unit is a corner unit and has much better views than the ones shown here. And i’ll pass on the checkerboard.
Lucas, maybe you can do a post about Lexi? Seems like there is some interest
Hugo P, to be fair, I’ve still got to wait on the bank to approve the short sale before I get it, but I’ve got my fingers crossed. If they don’t approve it, it’ll be back to the drawing board for me.
I think it’s safe to say that the developer will drop prices though if he wants to sell anymore units. That’s a given. There was a recent short sale of one of the corner units for $380k, and if mine goes through, that will definately put pressure on him to lower his prices.
Here are some pics I took of one of the developer units I looked at on the 16th floor, a SW corner unit. It was finished with porcelain tile and carpet in the bedrooms. I was told that they were planning on renting this to one of the developers family members, but the person didn’t end up moving in. I believe all of the other developer units are decorator ready.
http://i42.tinypic.com/358yj2h.jpg
http://i44.tinypic.com/2mmxia.jpg
http://i41.tinypic.com/10wpu6b.jpg
http://i42.tinypic.com/295dc37.jpg
http://i44.tinypic.com/21lv95z.jpg
http://i41.tinypic.com/1dypoj.jpg
Master:
http://i40.tinypic.com/spbxjk.jpg
http://i39.tinypic.com/2w68fb5.jpg
http://i41.tinypic.com/2isfhbk.jpg
Guest bed/bath
http://i44.tinypic.com/2uel89s.jpg
http://i43.tinypic.com/aahurr.jpg
Half bath/storage closet
http://i39.tinypic.com/3166aol.jpg
View:
http://i42.tinypic.com/2z9el29.jpg
“andi”,
Come on dude, that was a gawd awful piece written by an amateur.
I will look past your latent racist and stereo typical views. I will forgive you for dissing my building, but if you really want to sell Axis to everybody out here (either because you are an owner or even a developer of Axis), you got to do better than that.
First thing, come out of the closet and declare proudly that you own a unit at Axis. Then convince us why your building is the best or why we all shoud consider Axis or take a second look at it.
Don’t use such surreptious methods to tout your building. If you are really proud of Axis like I am about 1800, you can start by arguing your case rather than dissing a couple of other buildings. Grow up!
When I first looked at different nabes in 2004 to buy, I looked at Hallandale-Hollywood, Aventura, North Bay Village, Miami Beach and finally SOBE.
By now everyone knows how I feel about Aventura. I rarely mentioned NBV. I saw a few units in N Bay Island and treasure Island. The views were great from most units. But every building I visited gave me that sinking feeling like as if I am in Boynton Beach or Port St. Lucie or something like that. The place feels more like middle of Florida than Miami. I will not elaborate on this further.
I could not wait to leave the island.
But in all honesty, I never stepped foot on that island since 2004. In case it changed or became more cosmopolitan since then, I would not know but I doubt it.
The reason why I prefer myself and would recommend to others to live in SOBE (upto 17th st) and Downtown Miami (On Biscayne blvd from Flagler to 20th street) is because Living here frees you from the shackles of a car. I want my freedom from the dependence on the car. I can walk, Bicycle, take bus, metro mover and such public transport if I need to. The abundance of cultural, eating options, public parks and nightlife is another attraction.
But I do acknowledge that there are people here with kids and need a large space to live. They may not find the list of things I mentioned necessarily important enough. I guess Aventura, NBV and similar areas might be attractive to them.
AJ,
“Anyone been to the WMC and Ultra? How is it compared to last year?”
This year I enjoyed Ultra 09 from the luxury of my balcony at 900 B. With much of the same lineup as years past and thinner crowds I couldn’t justify $130 for two days of largely repetetive Euro house and trance – I went to the Heat game instead and hosted a few friends in town for the concerts – they enjoyed my pad and it’s location very much. I took some pics of the madness below and will post them later.
The WMC caters largely to European patrons and I wish there were more west coast artists performing. I would have liked to see Cut/Copy, mstrkrft and simian mobile disco but couldn’t stomach moby, tiesto, pvd and armin van buuren for the 100th time… the “vip villas” were totally empty.
best,
shwin
Note to myself, when I go to miami, avoid Axis at all costs.
AJ,
I don’t think one can really be free of a car anywhere in Miami. Destinations are too scattered and there isn’t enough public transportation linking the various urban clusters together. You can choose to confine yourself to a particular neighborhood like SoBe or Downtown but you would be significantly restricting your options for the sake of not having to drive. Personally I agree with you that it would be preferable to be car-free at least some of the time (I lived in NYC for 20+ years so that level of urbanism is what I am most comfortable with) but I have come to accept that the reality in Miami is quite different.
Just to give an example, the issue of restaurants is a perfect example. There are only a handful of places that I like to eat at in SoBe and effectively none Downtown. The better restaurants (at least the ones that I like) are scattered in neighborhoods that can only be conveniently reached by car, such as the Design District, Coral Gables and some even further afield. In that regard, I don’t think one can really pick a single neighborhood in Miami that has everything.
Sure areas like Aventura, N. Bay Village and Sunny Isles may not be to everyone’s tastes for aesthetic reasons but I don’t find your argument that one can be car free in the neighborhoods that you prefer all that convincing.
shwin,
Thanks for the update. Appreciate it. I guess Tiesto is good when one is pretty stoned but it does get a bit tiring! One party I would have loved is the Hed Kandi party. I am envious of the 900 denizens. They have free front row seats to every entertainment in the bicentennial park. Please do post the pics. Thanks.
Petronius,
For starts I hate car. Since I moved to the suburbs from Manhattan, I put on 10-15 pounds. When ever I get to Miami for 4-6 weeks, I lose almost all of it! I have been conciously avoiding a car in Miami. The last time, I parked my car most of the time. This upcoming trip, I am not renting one. I will walk, bike, take a bus or metro mover. I will be staying in 50 Biscayne. So i can take the free metro mover to Omni/Pace Park bus terminal and take a ride to SOBE if necessary. When I was living in 1800, I just had to walk a couple of blocks to get to the OMNI terminus.
I don’t argue regarding the scattering of the best restaurants/attractions all over the place. Some of my fav joints are not even in Miami. I go to Las Olas often. But then these places I visit once or twice a week for which I will always have a car and so will I when I am visiting friends in gables, grove, shores, keys, Palm Beach etc. But for the most part of everyday living I want to be car free. It is good for the body, the soul and the World as a whole.
Good article from John Mauldin’s newsletter which I thought was important to share. Just as an important piece of information, seasonally adjusted home rates in January 2000 were close to 900,000 and they now stand at under 400,000.
Another argument for 1990’s pricing…
——-
Housing Sales Improve? Not Hardly
I opened the Wall Street Journal and read that new home sales were up in February. Bloomberg reported that sales were “unexpectedly” up by 4.7%. I was intrigued, so I went to the data. As it turns out, sales were down 41% year over year, but up slightly from January.
But if you look at the data series, there was nothing unexpected about it. For years on end, February sales are up over January. It seems we like to buy homes in the spring and summer and then sales fall off in the fall and winter. It is a very seasonal thing. If you use the seasonally adjusted numbers, you find sales were down 2.9% instead of up 4.7%. But the media reports the positive number. Interestingly, they report the seasonally adjusted numbers for initial claims, which have been a lot better than the actual numbers. Not that they are looking to just report positive news, you understand.
Plus, as my friend Barry Ritholtz points out, the 4.7% rise was “plus or minus 18.3%”. That means sales could have risen as much as 23% or dropped 13%. We won’t know for awhile until we get real numbers and not estimates. Hanging your outlook for the economy or the housing market on one-month estimates is an exercise in futility, and could come back to embarrass you.
But that brings up my final point tonight, and that is how data gets revised by the various government agencies. Typically with these government statistics, you get a preliminary number, which is a guess based on past trends, and then as time goes along that data is revised. In recessions like we are in now the revisions are almost always negative.
There is no conspiracy here. The people who work in the government offices have to create a model to make estimates. Each data series, whether new home sales, employment, or durable goods sales, etc., has its own unique sets of characteristics. The estimates are based on past historical performance. There is really no other way to do it.
So, past performance in a recession suggests higher estimates than what really happens. Then, the numbers in the following months are revised downward as actual numbers are obtained. But the estimates in the current months are still too high. That makes the comparisons generally favorable, at least for one month. And the media and the bulls leap all over the “data,” and some silly economist goes on TV or in the press and says something like, “This is a sign that things are stabilizing.” It drives me nuts.
Ignore month-to-month estimated data. The key thing to look for is the direction of the revisions. If they are down, as they have been for over a year, then that is a bad sign. Further, one month’s estimates are just noise. Look at the year-over-year numbers. When the direction of the revisions is positive and the year-over-year numbers are starting to stabilize, then we will know things are starting to turn around.
Looks like Andi really increased Thesaurus.com web traffic for today while he was writing that post. lolz
AJ,
Thank you for posting the photos of 1800, they really are nice. It looks like a wonderful building and we are considering 1800 as a choice once we move. One question, how is the noise between units? We are skeptical of moving into a building if there is alot of partying or noise between units.
Although we will be renters first, we are looking long term as we hope to stay in Miami longterm based on the convenience to getting back to see family in South America.
I appreciate this site, and of course, all of the information available from the people on this forum.
-Michael
Hi Michael,
I lived in 1800 for only a few weeks in 2008 until I rented it out. During my limited stay, I did not experience a squeak from my neighbors (Both sides were occupied). It is generally not a party building. One day my immediate neighbors who are a gay couple had a dinner party for 25 people in their home. I had the invitation to attend and as soon as I entered their flat, there was Celine Dion blaring from their TV’s Home Theater system, there was boisterous laughter and chatter. But I could not hear anything from my flat until I entered their unit. So I guess the division between our flats is pretty well made.
Hope that helps. Good luck.
The view is nice, the apartment itself looks fine, yet nothing extraordinary in my opinion.
I can’t find any reason for me to spend over $200-250 /sqf in this market. I’m not blown away by the style and actual location of the building, only the view is nice. I wouldn’t pay a California price for a Miami condo.
Maybe visiting it will change my mind. I may just do this. But in any case what the heck with posting a $385k decorator ready, unit and make it sound like an amazing deal in this market?
anyways, this was only my 2cts.
AJ, good luck protecting your investment – Apparently you’ve purchased a unit in this building and you’re defending it.
From CNN
Miami, FLRank: 1
Home price forecast: -27.8%
(one year, forecast through March 2010)
City stats
Population:
(2006) 2,402,208
Median family income:
(2008) $49,200
Home prices
Median home price:
(2008) $287,000
Affordability index:
(2008 median home price/family income) 5.8
Prices peaked in: 2007:Q1
Total climb during the boom:
(from peak to 2008) 205.9%
Total decline so far:
(Peak through 2008) -43.7%
One-year change:
(Q4 2007 to Q4 2008) -37.4%
Forecast
Price change :
(from peak to bottom) -69.7%
When they’ll hit bottom: 2011:Q2
At bottom, prices will drop to levels last seen in: 1998:Q2
AJ
You mention that your next stay in Miami will be at 50 Biscayne. Does this mean that 50 Biscayne has become a “Hotel”, where one can rent a studio or one bedroom by the night or the week? And the ones doing this are the bulk buyers from Related or individuals? Also curious about their rates. Thanks.
Interesting article today in the New York Times with the title of ” Banks Starting To Walk Away On Foreclosures” – declining to take possession of the properties at the end of the foreclosure process most often because of the cost of the ordeal from legal fees to maintenance exceeds the diminishing value of the real estate, leaving the mortgage holder holding the bag for property taxes and maintenance. A Ms. James is quoted as saying that the company that was servicing her loan has gone out of business and its parent company filed for bankruptcy and dissolved. And the original bank that sold her the loan said it cannot find a record of it. “It is what some of us think is the next wave of the crisis said Kermit Lind – Professor of Law and an expert on foreclosure at Cleveland Marshall College. “Nobody has any idea who owns what or who is responsible”.
Kramer, that’s crazy. It’s like these homes are now hot potatos!
I got a tour of epic on monday. If Icon is for the Jay Gatsby’s of the world, then Epic is for the Buchanans. It’s worth noting that Ugo has outdone Jorge here…the finishes are far nicer in Epic (e.g., the standard doors and frames used in the units and openings are higher end). the amenities are not as grand as Icon, but I just don’t think it’s that big of a deal. I mean, do you really need a large movie room in your building?
One thing is certain – pricing in Epic, regardless of the quality of the building, is extremely optimistic. the cheapest townhome facing the river had an asking price of $1M. size was app. 1550 sq ft (excluding balcony). condos were going for $650+ sq ft. mnt fee was around 65 cents a sq ft. the older saleswoman (query…whatever happened to the young hot sales girls?) told me they were a little less than 15% closed with another 10 units set to close this week
rolofer,
Thanks for your concern. Please don’t feel sorry for me LMFAO.
I am extremely happy with my purchase.
Kramer,
No. I put an ad on Craigs list and a young couple (husband and wife) responded. They are renting me their guest bedroom with its own bath for a few weeks. It is a 2/2 facing the bay. I am paying $1000/month. They are very nice people and I like to make new friends like this rather than staying in a hotel. And the price is right too. I have absolutely no qualms about sharing a 2/2 with someone (as I am definitely not a prissy b 🙂 ).
My first preference was MB, 900, 18 & Q. But no one from those buildings responded. But I am excited and looking forward to staying at 50 Biscayne. It will be a whole new experience. Maybe next time I will get a chance to stay in MB or 900 to complete the total experience of living in Pace Park(already done in 1800), Downtown(this time at 50 Biscayne) and Park West(hopefully in MB or 900).
I must also mention that for $1000/month, I could have gotten a studio somewhere or even 1BR. But they are unfurnished and not suitable for short stays. And I am not about to set up a kitchen, TV and internet for a few weeks. This works very well for me.
Per Kramer, banks are walking away from some properties:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/30/us/30walkaway.html?_r=1&ref=us
AJ – Obviously that couple you’re renting a bedroom from haven’t read your posts! LOL I wouldn’t want to live in a building where people were taking in strangers via Craigslist running a hostel, B&B, or whatever you call such an arrangement. No doubt, this would violate rental rules in most buildings….my building requires credit check, criminal background check, etc….. and I doubt this couple did any of that! When you let a place out for pay, there are rules and paying the Florida tax too. But I guess rules don’t apply to AJ since he is above it all if it suits him!
RT, you are a certified prissy bitch. Just admit it.
In any case, these people are not avoiding any rules. If they were handing me over the keys to the entire flat with out going through proper procedures, then that is violating the condo rules. Taking in a guest whether paying guest or a friend or visiting relative does nor require criminal background checks. Strangers make some of the best friends. You just need to know how to intelligently pick out decent people. Millions of people around the World are sharing their homes with total strangers and to the great benefit for both parties. You have no idea how many websites are dedicated for that.
Of Course I do not expect you to know any of these life’s simple pleasures as you rarely travel and when you do, you behave like such a brat wanting a separate bath and shower where ever you go.
In fact someone would not want to have you anywhere near them as you would criticize anything and everything. Probably that is why you are such a loner and live alone and your friends or love interests leave you in a hurry after putting up with you for just few minutes. Learn to chill.
Admit it AJ, you’re a hypocrite. On the one hand you want condos to enforce strict rental rules to ensure quality tenants to protect your investment that you are “extremely happy with”. On the other, you swoop in to violate the condo rules by renting a room. No doubt, renting the entire place or letting out a portion still requires you go through the procedures….and protections. I certainly wouldn’t want an AJ sneaking into my building! Admit it, you’re breaking the rules! Moreover, it is my understanding there are Florida sales tax laws regarding such short term rentals like a hotel AND are these people declaring this income on the Federal tax returns??? Are you going to send them a 1099??? I pay my taxes, report my income, so should you and so should they. Otherwise you are just a selfish cheat.
You are sounding more demented and deranged.
Why are you automatically assuming that they are not going to declare their income? You keep bringing up again and again as if you are the only one paying taxes here. USA is not just running on your dime only. In any case you ran from your home state to Florida so that you can avoid paying state or local income taxes which can range anywhere between 6%-9%. You are more disingenuous and selfish than anyone I know. Declare your residence in your home state and pay their taxes where you made your money in the first place, got your education and upbringing (not much to show in that respect).
Meanwhile spare us your temper tantrums. Your shenanigans are getting very tiresome.
Oh AJ, I guess I hit a nerve. Admit it that you aren’t going to send them a 1099 as required under federal tax law??? You know they aren’t declaring this as income, don’t be naive. Are they paying the FL hotel thingy tax??? You’re a cheat! No surprise that I bet $$$ you cheat all the time on your federal taxes regarding your condo rentals……just like tips and things for a DJ service. I know people like you … and it is really sad how they cheat the “common good” that others pay for through taxes. I bet you are paying them in cash too. By the way, I do pay state income taxes for income from out of state…..Florida has no state income tax…so what, some states do, some states don’t.
You have lost it. I will not prolong this conversation with you any further so as to spare the other people on this blog from a major migraine out of your stupidity. So long.
Time to call the IRS and run the rift raft out…..
I paid my fee, had a credit check done, criminal background check done, went through the hoops and procedures. I expect others to do the same. Fair is fair. In a condo, the owner agree to abide by the rules….condo assoc can’t become the “condo police”….owners need to voluntarily follow what they agreed to follow….that is what makes for a nice, peaceful and enjoyable condo ownership experience. People like you AJ, that don’t think rule and LAWS apply to them are the problem. I have read your dribble about how great you are as an owner/landlord etc….but you’re just a cheat.
Tom,
You are acting like you have a bug up your rear. You are taking an innocent issue and blowing it out of proportion just because you seem to hate AJ. This kind of thing is not going to win you any friends my dear.
I have to give AJ props. You are to be commended for being so upfront in this forum. I don’t agree with a lot of what you say but you are very open about your life and business dealings.
I am astounded to hear about the 50 Biscayne rental agreement. Call me naive but I’ve never heard of such an arrangement by adults. I hope it works for you. Not a slam on your culture or background but I think that most Americans desire more privacy and would not open their homes in this fashion, or want to stay in another’s home with this arrangement.
Oh Joy. Thanks for info, but not looking for any more friends here dear!!! LOL
Bobby,
I am surprised that you find it astounding. Last year I did the same with a single guy who gave me his 2nd bedroom in his 2/2 in SOBE. I stayed for 6 weeks, had a fantastic time. We are good friends now. I wanted a change of scene from SOBE otherwise I could have repeated with the same person again. There are many sites in which you can open your house or flat to a visiting guest. The home sharing sites are doing very well. Or just go to Craigslist and visit the temporary, shared, sublet or vacation section and you will be surprised to see the amount of activity and advertisements there.
I do acknowledge that generally Americans per se are very fiercely protective of their privacy. This kind of arrangement is not for everyone. The SOBE guy I stayed with is a Canadian and the couple I will be staying with are South American if that makes it any easier to understand. But I also received many offers from “Americans” too but I preferred the 50 Biscayne offer as it was the best suited for what I wanted.
Newbie Joy probably = AJ
That is alright Tom. I will not be slighted.
I am a New Yorker and I have never declared what I bought online and paid sales tax on them. Millions of New Yorkers never do. You want to call millions of good people cheats? That is far fetched logic. According to you everyone is a cheat as at least once every year, knowingly or unknowingly you pay cash to someone or someone pays you cash that you do not declare. You called everyone cheats. I take objection to that. The fact that you have an accountant itself means that you are not living strictly by the tax code. I know what accountants do and they fudge many facts to save you a buck or two. So get off that high horse will ya?
Joy,
Thanks for taking up on my behalf. I can only expect a fellow New Yorker to stick up for another. I am quite disgusted with many people on this blog. They are indebted to this jerk for reasons only god knows. Not one of them has the balls to stand up to this guy even when they do agree with me.
I don’t know if you are new to this site or you have always been here and changed your handle to to defend me, I admire you and I thank you.
AJ,
I have been standing up against RT ever since he had shown his support for McCant and supported Bush over Obama. He sometimes talks about things that surprise me given that he can’t figure out where our country would have been with McCant in charge. He can’t accept what a disaster Bush was. Anyway AJ… keep doing your thing…
Oh Joy…..I use an accountant to be accurate. No cheating now or ever! You sound like AJ and are as stupid as him too. If you knew anything about accountants, then you’d know that when they sign that tax return as the preparer, then they sign for what they do for all of their clients. In other words, if they cheat for one client, then all the clients they prepared returns for get the audit from the IRS. Hence it is important to deal only with a reputable accounting firm with a highly respected and accurate CPA. It’s clear that AJ cheats…..people with such metal disorders always justify why they can cheat and others can’t……or perhaps it is a democrat thing where they expand govt and taxes then turn around and shirk their civil duties to pay for the very govt they created! Oh well, AJ’s response is clear that he is cheating on this rental…..no taxes for FL or the Fed govt out of what is a taxable transaction. At least the people working at Wal-Mart pay their taxes AJ…. I respect them, not you.
Can someone give this guy some Oxygen please!
Tom, yes all Democrats are cut from the same cloth (whatever warped cloth that may be that you’ve woven). I wouldn’t paint with such a broad brush, my friend.
Seriously though, you’re starting to sound like the kid that everyone hated in school who threatens to tell the teacher that people are helping each other do homework problems.
DJ – I don’t like snotty little hypocrites that think they are above everything, then cheat. I may not be a fan of paying taxes and some condo rules are silly, but we have to pay taxes and if you buy a condo you agree to the rules. It also is a safety issue, if I have to jump through the hoops as a longer term renter, but some yahoo off craigslist can just come in without any qualifications …. what good is screening the longer term renters since they are the ones aren’t the transients. Tax cheats are simply burdening future generations. To knowingly cheat is a crime.
RT, have you ever driven above the speed limit? Geez lighten up guy! You are taking this way overboard. Some of your posts actually make sense. This string is not one of them.
AJ I also applaud you for beng so open and sharing your experiences here. Whether anyone agress with you or not it is informative.
AJ, you oppened a can of worms by being so open about your business.
Not all things are meant for a blog, tmi. you should have kept the details your transaction private. You know there are some certified nuts on this blog. I just hope the people at 500 don’t read this blog. I didn’t know that you are not obligated to pay taxes on that money you spend. Isn’t the couple that you are renting from obligated to report and pay the appropriate tax they collect?
RT
everything is not always about republican/democratic. I think if you open your eyes you will see that people cheat and it doesn’t matter what their political views are.
Tell me who is more likely to cheat on taxes , the tight wad who sits in is rental condo all day/everyday contemplating what country he is going to hide his money in or the guy who regularly travels the world and spend his money buying multiple condos even though most people call him a fool?
You are not fooling anyone. Anyone who has read even a few of you post on this blog know what type of person you are. We know you are the type to do your own taxes because you won’t pay a professional a few hundred $$ to do what you can do yourself.
You don’t Itemize and the money you get is all interest income therefore your taxes is easy. I wouldn’ be surprised if you have some LLC somewhare to generae some phantom losses in order to ofset your interest income. I bet you pay close $0 in taxes. Don’t come here with your holier than thou bull shit because we see right through it.
Ocean5 – Well, tell it to the IRS, I’m sure they will understand. I pay my taxes, it is my civic responsibility. I am tired of tax cheats many of whom are the same dishonest people that caused this financial mess. Meanwhile, those that support higher taxes, cheat. Then they want public transportation and resources to have a nice Pace Park. Get real, pay your taxes.
makes me think – Silly. My CPA costs me around $1900 to do my tax return….he does a good thorough job without cheating. I have been in three countries this year already. I personally don’t like writing out a $500K tax check and then see people who blatantly cheat. These transactions have two parties and AJ is one of those parties. There is no doubt in my mind that this will be unreported income. Meanwhile our Federal debt is increasing. We don’t need higher taxes, just more honest citizens. I can’t wait to hear all the whining from AJ about how run down Pace Park becomes with all the govt cutbacks to come….actually I ignore his posts most of the time as I’m sure he does mine.
RT – you are really beginning to sound like a nut. You don’t know who AJ is, you don’t know if what he said is true, you don’t know anything about the couple he possibly stayed with. You have no idea who is and who is not paying taxes! So get off your high horse!
And in case you are wondering, I pay my taxes!
If a guest stays over a certain amount of time the condo board needs to be notified. Usually guest needs to be out after a certain amount of time. Check individual condo docs.
I recommend owners or potential owners to check Craigslist for violators in your own building. The cities should be going after the daily rentals and charging them with running a hotel. Also check Craigslist for people renting out parking spots. This is also prohibited. Also parking passes and resident passes, pool passes and laundry room cards. Check that your storage areas aren’t be rented to homeless people. What that porn website too to see if your guest isn’t filming a movie when your out at dinner.
ocean5 – I have paid HUGE taxes over the last few years (seven figures)…..and am reviewing my returns this afternoon…..hence I’m grumpy and have no tolerance for tax cheats…esp those that think city amenities are free!
Highly doubt your federal taxes are 500k off interest income only. I’m not talking about the taxes you paid when you sold your business back then.
RT, I didn’t think it was possible but you sound like an even bigger ass hole ranting on this blog about a $1000 to a couple who may be doing all they can to live up to their opligation to pay a mortgage. Instead of being angry at the world you should thank God that you are one of the few people in this country who has been blessed enough to pay 500K taxes and don’t need to cheat or depend on welfare checks to feed your family.
I have never respected you but now I am convinced you are noting more than an ungreatful lunatic.
Guys, Thanks for the words of support. Appreciate it.
Yes I do disclose a lot of what I do. I think it may come from the fact that I have not done anything wrong. I also felt that my life experiences might help somebody. But I do appreciate the fact that there are some crazies out there and to watch out.
Wild Bill,
You cannot rent parking spaces, storage etc to non residents. This is why; You need a key fob to gain entry to a parking garage or storage space located in a building. I do not know about other buildings but in 1800, each fob you get is coded and as soon as you rent your unit, the owner fobs get deactivated. The non owner fobs when used leave a trail of usage log. There is a 4 fob limit. 2 owner and 2 renter. with such a limit on the fobs, you cannot give your fob away to some one renting a storage space or parking. And please stop obsessing with porn films.
A guest can stay in your house for many reasons. One can be for a payment, second could be for some services rendered like they can clean or paint your house or baby sit or cook for you, take care of you (or maybe even sleep with you). As per the tax law, even services rendered for room or board in lieu of cash has a value and you are supposed to declare it. But imagine, if you have to quantify the value of the services of your girl friend living with you rent free! That is why there are a few items that are best left untouched.
I’M SORRY………………..but I have to believe that “ACE” and some of his “OTHER” flunkys are still with us . (THE SMART MONEY GROUP) or whatever they call themselves…………Under ….FICTICIOUS…names.I can’t stand the attack that Renter Tom is under.I think he is one of the most Honest ,Informative , and sincere writers on this site..RT dosen’t deserve this.
Miami, I’m glad you think so highly of him, maybe that says more about you.
I personally don’t like the guy. He is the biggest complainers on this blog. He has a personality disorder in my opinion. A well adjusted person don’t get on a blog day after day to post the bullshit he post here. Today he is outraded about a couple paying taxes on a $1000 they collect from renting out a room. I can only imagine how desperate they must be to put up with AJ for a whole month. He doesn’t know their situation he shouldn’t comment on it. How dare he get on here and call people a tax cheat. I’m telling you there is something wrong with that guy.
Renter Tom,
I’m sorry but I’m gonna have to call you out. I think it goes without saying that everyone hates a tax cheat. That’s like saying you hate drunk drivers. It’s a given. That being the case, its quite obvious that your latest tirade has nothing to do with some poor schmos who may or may not be claiming AJ’s measly $1000/rent on their tax returns, but rather your personal hatred of AJ himself. You’re completely transparent, dude.
Also, I would love to see you post any proof that you’ve ever written a $500k income tax check, let alone paid 7 figures in any given year. If that were the case, you wouldn’t be renting a 2,000 sq. foot condo in sunny isles beach. I’ve followed your posts over the past 6 months or so and see you constantly slip in little references as to how rich you are. I remember a while ago you posting about how you were a ‘very high net worth individual’ or whatever you called it and bragging about how many millions you had in the bank. From my personal experience, people who need to constantly seek validation from others (especially random people on a message board), by talking about how rich they are, never have nearly as much money as they’re trying to portray.
DJ – I didn’t say I paid 7 figures in ONE year…over the last few years. Sorry if I wasn’t clear. And yes I have the checks to prove it. Moreover, have you never heard of an “installment sale”? I don’t hate AJ, I was just calling him out…..he goes on and on about how wonderful his condo is, etc. the park, etc. and that everyone is responsible etc. Then goes and does an end around condo rental rules…he knows better. He is a condo busy-body. If you are renting out a room, then you should follow the rules and pay the taxes too. Why is that so hard? Moreover, meeting someone on craigslist to share your condo with is crazy…a complete stranger! Wasn’t there some sort of craigslist killing on South Beach in the lat few weeks? We have all heard the ungodly stories of bad tenants….why welcome that risk into a building and esp your own condo! Common sense people, common sense.
makes me think – Or AJ as the case may be. Why should the Wal-Mart worker pay her taxes but the couple that bought a luxurious condo not? Come on. I’ve called AJ out in the past about taxes. I pay mine, he can pay his. I can tell you one thing, the US govt and hence all of the citizens are in the desperate situation as the country is being levered up in a vain attempt to re-inflate a credit bubble.
Hate all you want, but you know I am right… 🙂
Interesting figure. The most recent unemployment rate for the state of Florida came in at 9.4%. Yet Miami-Dade Countys unemployment rare came in allmost 2 percentage points lower at 7.5%.
Kramer – I saw that too…curious.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01boats.html?_r=1&hp
Not only are homes, condos, cars, cats, dogs, and horses being abandoned, but so are boats…….or sunk for the insurance sorta like in Iceland, the land of Land Rover bon fires:
Pleasure Boats Too Expensive to Keep Are Littering Coastlines
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01boats.html?_r=1&hp
Opppppps, I forget, there was no housing bubble.
Kramer – I saw that too…curious.
Not only are homes, condos, cars, cats, dogs, and horses being abandoned, but so are boats…….or sunk for the insurance sorta like in Iceland, the land of Land Rover bon fires:
Pleasure Boats Too Expensive to Keep Are Littering Coastlines
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01boats.html?_r=1&hp
Opppppps, I forget, there was no housing bubble.
“Marina and maritime officials around the country say they believe, however, that most of the abandoned vessels cluttering their waters are fully paid for. They are expensive-to-maintain toys that have lost their appeal.”
– Are Florida condos next???
Rent a Boat…….Renter Tom..that might be the next best business to get into.Instead of abandoning there boats….Renter Tom could pick them up for a fee and Rent.or sell them for a minimal profit and keep the sails a flowin…..
Actually, I need to rent a boat for bit but will be out of the country one a trip…..and I must admit, am flying first class…..they bumped me up, I wouldn’t spend that kind of money on myself!
FYI – On the walk back from a certain coffee place I observed three units with lights on in Jade Beach….two small units and one large one. Not very many, but there never is. Another odd building is Sole on the Ocean….a condo hotel that looks pretty dead all the time. Instead of seeing an opportunity to buy, it looks like a disaster if the building isn’t at least partially established since you don’t want to be one of the 20% actually paying dues for the rest (sorta like taxes!!!). The St. Tropez project is taking shape nicely but don’t know about any closing, who is gonna want to close, what retail will be there etc…..
This is some of the funniest stuff to read while high. I highly reccomend it for the first 10 minutes until you can’t take the ridiculousness anymore.
This guy thinks that everyone who doesn’t side with him or toe his line is actually me LOL.
Today I actually thought for a minute that no one in this blog cares. How ever anonymous this blog maybe, I felt that some kind of validation is needed even from those anonymous bloggers. I felt that my time here is a total waste and I might as well be communicating with pillars and walls.
But I was wrong.
Even those who normally would not agree with me, stood up to defend me. That is very generous of many of you. All I can say is thank you!
As a deep gratitude now you will be hearing more of me 😉 OK OK, just kidding.
I like to touch upon something Bobby J raised and I dwelt upon.
“Americans are very protective of their privacy”
I like to know if it is culture or economics that made them this way. America is the land of plenty with wide open spaces and the land of McMansions. Everyone had their own room growing up. This applied both to the baby boomer generation as well as the Gen X’ers. They had a good life and big houses to live in. But off late, everything is changing. The McMansions are gone, people are downsizing and buying only the amount of home they can actually afford. Some 30 something gen X’ers are moving in with their parents. Some baby boomers are moving in with their children, all due to some harsh economic realities. Average household is getting bigger in size in terms of the number of souls living under one roof. A recent NY times article talked in depth about how families are cramming two or three kids to a room with bunk beds as they can only afford a 2 bedroom house and most of them with a single bathroom. And we are not talking about the poor but the great American middle class with jobs. So things are changing in America. The gen X and the Baby Boomers had it good but the Gen Ys and the Millennials are learning to live for less.
One day will a mom yelling “go to your room” become extinct as there is no your room or my room to go to anymore? Will these kids when they grow up be more like the rest of the World citizens learning to live with less of everything? The average home in the World is less than 800 sf (From 100 sf in some African Countries, Haiti, Bangladesh etc to some 900 sf in Europe to 1500 sf in USA) . Are we eventually headed there? Will that make the present kids less fierce in protecting their privacy/space and will actually share a house or even a room with someone else? Will the 850 sf home become standard in America with 1200 sf reserved for the slightly well to do and the 1700 sf only for the rich?
I always wonder.
RE: “epic on monday”………GREAT BUILDING! Would love to have a 3BDRM there or even larger if things really go south with the US economy, but you are correct the building is still priced NOT to move..Ugo took great pride in this construction and it shows in the finishes (european doors, fixtures, etc) and the hotel already has the buzz as my pal who is the road mgr for the Gipsy Kings just recently booked the band there instead of the Raleigh….If we look at the current and projected losses for Miami RE you get to around 70% off bubble peak…..this means that an EPIC 3BDRM that was 2mil at the top might eventually hit $600K…..not easy to time the exact bottom so we would entertain the idea at $800-900K cash and view it as somewhere to live for a long time and not be too obsessed with it’s value year to year…But imagine the look you’d get if you told the salesperson you needed a $700-800K discount!!….These guys just are not at that point yet, but there is only so much time the banks can extend and the reality is that at the moment even a luxury 2,000 SQF unit simply isn’t worth anything close to 1.6 mil….This standoff/logjam no doubt gets broken within the next year as the FDIC probably shuts down CORS and then we might get full on building auctions here in Miami……..the resolution of the ICON situation will also help….Whoever has loans on the ICON should immediately agree to sell the note for 30-40% off (or finance purchases to individuals at that level) as it is going to get worse before it gets better….Ugo took great pride in this construction and it shows in the finishes (european doors, fixtures, etc) and the hotel already has the buzz as my pal who is the road mgr for the Gipsy Kings just recently booked the band there instead of the Raleigh. AJ, please let us know about your 50 experience and RT April 15th is indeed the worst day of the year for those of us who have to sit down and painfully write a check to the IRS.
Renter Tom, maybe I was a little harsh in my last post. If so, I appologize. The point I was trying to get across is that AJ is doing his thing, and whether you agree with it or not, why not just let the dude be. Personally, I think he’s nuts for renting a room in someone else’s condo, let alone for $1000/month, but hey, if that’s what floats his boat, so be it. Even though you and AJ are constantly bickering back and forth, it seems as though you’re usually the one instigating it, so I directed my last comment at you rather than him. Regarding my statements about your comments about your personal wealth, those still stand. You definately seem like a smart guy with a lot of knowledge on finance, but it detracts from whatever point you’re trying to make when your underlying theme seems more to boast about your personal financial situation rather than the topic at hand.
That said, maybe we can get back to talking about something else, like, oh I don’t know, real estate maybe. Maybe specifically Miami condo real estate. Just a thought.
“why not just let the dude (AJ) be”.
Because the truth matters. His cheating encourages others to do the same thereby reducing tax revenue even more. There is no one who supports legal immigration more than me but leave the third world behaviors behind . The USA doesn’t want to become like the banana republic you left.
Aj you make no sense. If everyone is going broke, who’s going to pay 1 million dollars for your tacky checkerboard condo!? Dj tiesto? Or one of your cousins from Mumbai?
Truth Matters,
If you wanna soapbox, fine. I made my point.
AJ, thank you for your posts and ideas, frank responses. I do not think it is productive to fight with all insane messages that we get here. They spoil this blog At the beginning it was interesting.
Hendrik is right in his post. Instead of speaking about Miami condo investments it became a transcript of mental disorders.
This blog has definitely turned the wrong way. No more real estate excepct for Lucas’ post and a few (very few) intelligent posts about the market.
I am out. Peace
Yes DJ – you made your point and apparently ignored mine (and RT’s).
That is why so many of the arguments on this blog go nowhere.
Aj, is it true that an American company gave you an j1 visa so the could outsource a Dutch dj job?
ADP: Private Sector Loses 742,000 Jobs … that’s Feb to March. OUCH!
Armin – If AJ is Dutch, he can’t be all bad!
Floridian 2/2 unit 2803 closed a month ago for almost $500/sf. That is a shocker. Such a high price in these times for a mediocre building. The unit is not even a corner unit. It was listed for 580K and sold for 530K. Some one is not reading this blog.
AJ – I think the bigger thing is the 20 somethings not going out and buying their own condo or house just for themselves before getting married. That was a trend….buy a place as soon as you can then when your plans or job changes a couple of years later, just sell it….now you can’t just sell it and you lose money. These people will go back to renting and/or having roommates like in the past. When you buy a home, that is where you put your roots. Moreover, kids were not only getting their own room but their own full bath! That was being reflected in new construction apartments around colleges to give them the amenities they are accustomed too. As I have said, the debtor lifestyle is dead.
$23 Million Paid For 6 Waterfront Miami Beach Area Condos
Tuesday, March 31, 2009 – 9:14:27 am EDT
Buyers paid a combined $23 million in March for six waterfront condominium units located on the Barrier Island just east of Downtown Miami, according to a new condo report from Condo Vultures® LLC.
There were four deals worth $13.2 million that occurred in Miami Beach, and two transactions worth $10 million that closed in Sunny Isles Beach, according to the condo report.
“Investors seem to be saying with these purchases that new waterfront housing on Miami’s Barrier Island is a great hedge against a volatile real estate market,” said Peter Zalewski, a principal with the Bal Harbour, Fla.-based real estate consultancy Condo Vultures®.
In trendy Miami Beach, Buyers closed on three transactions in the Capri South Beach for a combined $9.4 million, and one deal at the Apogee for $3.75 million.
Buyers in Sunny Isles Beach paid $5.25 million for a 5,030-square-foot penthouse at the Sayan, and $4.75 million for a two-story unit in the newly opened Jade Beach, according to the condo report.
Four of the transactions closed with cash but two involved financing.
A balloon mortgage for $4 million was provided on the $5.25 million unit at the Sayan, and an Adjustable Rate Mortgage in the amount of $500,000 was extended on a $2.36 million purchase at the Capri South Beach, according to the condo report.
GN – Interesting, very interesting. The Sayan sales had hit a wall with the developer owning about 25% of the value of the units (same developer for St. Tropez in SIB). Word from a realtor a while back was that the developer would take $3.5M for that highly decorated penthouse unit in the Sayan…..interesting that the “balloon mortgage” was then $4M!!! and the sale was $5.25M which is $1.75M more than what supposedly the developer would have sold it for and apparently realtors knew that. One wonders….one scratches one’s head, was there really $1.75M in cash that exchanged hands? A balloon mortgage with presumably low payments until the mortgage comes due seems odd…..if ya got $1.75M to plunk down why do you need the low payments via balloon loan???????????? Seems fishy to me………. Will that balloon loan ever get paid off??????? Stay tuned.
No Gnews is Good Gnews.
The Mole,
I agree, if you can afford to plunk down $1.75M why would you need a ballon mortgage..I guess only time will tell if the deal at the Sayan was legit or fishy
wow been a few days since i read the blog and i see i have missed nothing other than our usual RT – AJ fight. how about we get back to talking about “miami condo investments”
Did you guys read this post by Kristina? Sad indeed.
Please help me!! I purchased a unit in Axis about 3 years ago- we were approved for a loan but the bank needed 35% of the units closed which they have not met- so we lost that loan, now it’s next to impossible to get a loan, and my 150K is sitting with them and they keep telling us that if we don’t close they’ll just take our money- PLEASE HELP!!! We live in California, so I think they’re screwing with us because of that as well. Any info would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks-
Kristina
Admin van burren /Apr 1, 2009 at 8:25 am Vote:
Aj you make no sense. If everyone is going broke, who’s going to pay 1 million dollars for your tacky checkerboard condo!? Dj tiesto? Or one of your cousins from Mumbai?
..
Is AJ indian? I thought he was salsa loving latin.
AJ –
Where did you see that post from Kristina? Why not refer her to a good lawyer in Miami?
I’ll agree with RT on this. The whole idea of buying a condo as a mid to late twentysomething, pulling down 80k a year, type just doesn’t make sense in a normal real estate market. You perhaps come out even if you hold for three years or so but life and circumstances can easily change your hold period. It especially seems suspect in Miami where there are limited jobs paying the type of money that will put you in a Brickell condo (forget about the beach).
Kristina
I can give you a good referral however, in large part, any recovery really depends on the terms of your contract.
AJ is straight off the boat from Mumbai. He used to be the hottest DJ east of the Nile, but then he became addicted to purchasing property and he’s never been the same since. His shows used to be a mixed concept a lot like cirque de soleil, but these days he stops mid-show to lecture the audience on the merits or real estate investing. So sad. He was going to be the next Ferry Corsten, but now he’s just another Fedde le Grande.
In the next few days I will be selling cloned key fobs on Ebay. You’ll be able to use the pool and gym at the 1800 Club, other buildings will be available soon. Bidding starts at $50- no reserve.
SwissLuxury post #161
Your point about high prices at Epic are well taken as you say this “standoff” needs a resolution. Interesting to see the closing ratio over the next couple of months at Epic and see how many contract holders who came in at 600-700 per sq feet are either willing to close or cannot close due to either appraisals or obtaining a mortgage in the new Fannie Mae guidelines. This building is in the same boat as Icon/Axis/Infinity/Everglades/Marquis/900 Biscayne/Met One as buildings which received their CO late in the game. This is a massive game of “Chicken” between the Developer – Bank Lender – and Contract Holders on these buildings. These buildings will not begin start to see any substantial closings until, as you say, they come in with 30 to 40% haircuts from peak prices. The carrying charges and interest must be enormous. Who is going to say “Uncle” first?
Should read 60-70% haircuts from peak prices.
The best example of this is – 1800 Club – 2 Bedroom/2Bath With Direct Bayviews for $385,000. Great unit in a nice building and area but you need to be a cash buyer as mortgages for this unit is restricted. This severely limits the availability of buyers.
I just read a report about condo closings in Miami for March 2009 and was surprised that sale prices were higher than I expected them to be. the average discount from a listing price was a bit over 7%.
lara
As with your previous posts here you are always non-specific when you come on here. “In Miami I see 2/3 deals per day worth investing in good areas downtown”. -” I dont want to go into details in here because it would take two hours”. – “I just read a report about condo closings in Miami for march 2009 and surprised prices were higher” No more generalizations please. Be specific. For example where were the 2/3 deals downtown worth investing in? What was the name and date of that report you just read and an example or two to back up your claim. Unless of course your one of Relateds girls with a lot of down time since nobody is walking in your office door these days. This is pathetic.
Kramer, I am not one of the Related girls. If you want to ask me something then do so. I am a real person who is an investor and do deals. I was not specific about Downtown. For example today I saw that in 401 Blu (condo conversion finished in 2006) North Miami Beach (2 very short blocks to the beach) there is a 1bd,condo listed for sale $99,000(if I am not mistaken). You can rent it for $1,200. These were $200,000 pre construction prices in 2003 or $300,000 in 2005-2006. Periodically I see also condo conversions in Sunny Isles (like Ocean View across from the Beach) 1-2 bdr. condos with great sq.ft. from $99,000 to $145,000 and etc. Do research yourself. I spend some time doing my analysis of the buildings.
IT does take a couple of hours to explain how to analyze some of the deals and how to research the area, years of previous experience, traveling to Florida. So above I just gave you a quick example.
In re to March sales. I tried to post a link to February sales 1 month ago but it did not appear. So probably Lucas wants to do it himself. I fully undestand it and I am not going
against it.
So please do not fall into a category of another mental patient and call me pathetic.
IF you want an advice ask it politely and do not fall into accusation mode.
If someone on this blog is familiar with Tampa Bay area please respond. I am interested in Little Harbor Village. What do you know about it. If developer is in trouble? How’s maintenance there? Many foreclosures? I am specifically interested in condos there.
I would appreciate your response.
The whole idea of buying a condo as a mid to late twentysomething, pulling down 80k a year, type just doesn’t make sense in a normal real estate market. You perhaps come out even if you hold for three years or so but life and circumstances can easily change your hold period. When you buy a home, that is where you put your roots. Moreover, kids were not only getting their own room but their own full bath! That was being reflected in new construction apartments around colleges to give them the amenities they are accustomed too.
lara
the “related girls” are long gone. all that’s left is the middle aged women who actually are realtors.
Lender acquires 56 units in Marina Blue
South Florida Business Journal – by Brian Bandell
A company that gave a second mortgage to the developer of Marina Blue acquired 56 units in the downtown Miami condominium in a transaction valued at $15.7 million and declared that its mortgage was satisfied.
This is the second bulk deal at the 516-unit Marina Blue this year, and it closes out nearly all of its units.
Singer Island-based Welcome Bay bought 60 units in Marina Blue in December for $13 million.
However, it is unclear from court documents whether the latest bulk deal was a simple sale or a deal in which the lender released the developer from the mortgage. An official at Miami-based Hyperion Development declined to comment. West Palm Beach attorney Cynthia Spall, who handled the paperwork, did not return a call seeking comment.
Miami-Dade County court records show that, on March 19, Lendco Florida, a corporation registered in Las Vegas with an address in Menlo Park, Calif., acquired the 56 units in Marina Blue for an average of $281,118 a unit. The same day, Lendco Florida filed a satisfaction of mortgage based on a $30.5 million second mortgage it made the developer in February 2008.
Chicago-based Corus Bank issued a satisfaction of mortgage notice on its first mortgage to the developer of Marina Blue.
Miami Beach resident Thomas Jermoluk, who was listed as a manager of Lendco in mortgage documents, also gave the developer a $5 million personal mortgage. Jermoluk and his wife acquired a unit in Marina Blue for $200,000 on March 20.
Visionary,
Thanks for the scoop on MB. That will make MB 100% sold. The residents are very lucky indeed as now all units are in the hands of financially capable individuals or firms who can pay the maintenance and taxes. Good for them.
I heard a rumour (from a friend in Quantum) that the Quantum’s 100 unit bulk sale fell through. Can anyone confirm that?
Meanwhile Everglades, Infinity and to an extent Epic are completely below the radar. Any one with any further info on these buildings?
AJ,
You are right about Q. I was told so too.
Not sure what happened. Some say the buyer backed off and some say Terra was very firm on the price. This sale could have been very good for Q.
If I am not mistaken, of all the buildings that opened after 2005, only 4 buildings are fully closed or at least over 95% closed.
1) One Miami 2) 50 Biscayne 3) Apogee 4) (and now) Marina Blue
Am I missing any?
U.S. property bust threatens condo “death spiral”
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53200O20090403?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
AJ
not sure why you think this is a good thing for MB owners. you live in a fractured building. the bulk buyers will want to cut costs every way possible in the building. plus, the place is now effectively a rental building. what real homeowner wants that?
jcrimes,
1) There wont be maintenance dead beats that much. Bulk buyers are liquid.
2) The remaining units are taken off the market. The bulk buyer bought for $200/sf but is not going to sell it you for less than $300/sf. He will wait if he does not get his price. That means the individual owners who might have paid $400/sf will not get $400 right now, but he does not have to settle for selling at $200 either. If someone wants to buy in MB bad enough, he has to shell out at least $300/sf as there will be almost no or very few distress sales.
3) Remember, the number 2 rule in RE (no. 1 being location) is to get the similar inventory off the market for the remaining units to become valuable.
4) Nothing wrong with the bulk buyer wanting to cut costs in every way. That will tighten the belt, cut some flab and do away with some unnecessary trappings. It will keep a lid on the maintenance increases. What is wrong with that?
5) Once a building reaches 70% closings on its own, sell the remaining units 9.9% to 3 different bulk buyers to avoid the F-F regulations. That will complete the entire sale of the building, and no one entity will own more than 10%. Everyone is happy.
6) Pros and cons of a building turning mostly rental is debatable. It is not all that bad. Probably Floridian, Flamingo and the likes gave rentals bad name but all rentals are not created equal. When this thing blows over in a couple of years, there will be more end users and less renters. We can suck it up and live with it for a while. In any case you are a renter yourself. having you or shwin or similar people in my building will not be bad at all. In fact it would be great.
BTW, I have to amend my previous post. It should read:
“of all the buildings that opened after 2007, only 3 buildings are fully closed or at least over 95% closed.
1) 50 Biscayne 2) Apogee 3) (and now) Marina Blue. Am I missing any?”
A bulk buyer who owns 50 units has to pay over $30,000 a month in maintenance fees. Good luck if these investors have a problem with just one months payment.
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/2009-04-02/news/treasure-island-dr-charles-c-edwards-in-trouble-in-north-bay-village/1
This story has it all.
“They were two of three members on the board of directors, and in essence controlled the building’s finances and maintenance when condo owners began complaining of disrepair.”
“operating an insurance company in the State of Florida required specific licensing which the company did not have”
“The city’s chief building official, Paul Gioia, says he took control of the building in November 2005 until developers completed $2 million in repairs.”
“[This] sends a message to the rest of the country, saying, ‘If you want to commit fraud, come to Miami-Dade County. The worst that will happen is you have to pay back the money you stole.'”
Kramer post#152 “Interesting figure. The most recent unemployment rate for the state of Florida came in at 9.4%. Yet Miami-Dade Countys unemployment rare came in allmost 2 percentage points lower at 7.5%.”
I don’t think you can ever get a true unemployment idea in Miami with all the undocumented workers down here.
AJ post#200 “2) The remaining units are taken off the market. The bulk buyer bought for $200/sf but is not going to sell it you for less than $300/sf. He will wait if he does not get his price. That means the individual owners who might have paid $400/sf will not get $400 right now, but he does not have to settle for selling at $200 either. ”
AJ why are you so sure “RE smart money” is actually smart or deep pocketed enough to hold? Maybe the buyer will be able to sell them for $300/sf in the future and maybe he’ll have to liquidate at $100/sf and run back to Abu Dhabi?
It’s like saying every private placement of stock will make money because they bought below market and in bulk and can hold their shares until they are worth more… yeah OK.
Wild Bill,
Always negative as usual. An entity who paid millions of dollars for a cluster of units won’t have $30,000 to pay their maintenance!!? If you are correct, then they should not have been in this business in the first place and deserve to go under. In any case, before they plonked millions of dollars, you seem to suggest that they were in some kind of drug induced coma that they did not account for their monthly carrying costs!!
JL,
Why not? When the DOW was fluctuating between 8000 and 8500 for a month or more earlier this year, It was widely thought that 8000 is the bottom. So many people bought shares (including my brother). Then it went down to 6400. My brother and probably thousands of other people did not panic and sell. They held and as expected (at least for the optimists) it came back up. Now DOW 6400 seems like a distant memory and 80% chance, it will never go back there. Just because the job report may be bleak (jobs are always a lagging indicator, 6 months behind general economy), it does not tell the full story. All other economic indicators are doing better than expected and are in positive territory. it is now widely assumed that recession will end either in the third or fourth Q of this year.
When such optimism is in the air, how can you fault a bulk buyer for hoping to make a profit on his deal? Even if we assume (worst case scenario) Marina Blue dips to $150/sf (impossible I might say), do you think the bulk buyers are going to do a fire sale for a loss? No. When they got in, they were prepared to dig in for at least two years and calculated their holding costs. If things do not get better in 2 years, they will start hurting big time. But then if things do not get better in 2 years, everyone is equally fucked including you and me.
AJ,
comparing stocks to RE is shaky in this situation. stocks essentially have no carrying cost, while condos have a tax and HOA fee occurring each month. there is a definite cost to holding RE which does not exist in other investment classes. dow at 6500 and dow at 8000 does not change your holding cost. but a condo at $500k and now $250 has a significant difference in taxes, but you typically cannot take advantage of the differential due to bureaucracy. when you owe monthly fees and your asset is not climbing in value, your risk tends to exceed your reward.
I agree the bulk deals can/will have some positive outcomes. i much prefer to have a selection of buildings where maintenance is occurring. dilapidated condos will go into a death spiral in the current environment. that is why most rental conversions are an economic disaster-they were in disrepair before they even made it into the market. the key with bulk deals will be the rental rates. keep an eye on how much the rentals go for in these new bulk buildings. if rates can be sustained high enough to cover costs-bulk buyers will be in good shape. if rental rates continue to drop (they definitely have over the past two years) the bulk deals will result in firesales of the least desirable units and resulting negative impact on sale price over the next couple of years.
AJ asked “Why not?” so I’ll ask Why?
GM’s trading at 2 bucks and 1 billion market cap. If I can get a $200 million private placement at $1.50 a share, am I guaranteed to make money in 2 years, becasue if I don’t make money in 2 years we’re all screwed anyway? Is that how it works?
The fact of the matter is that Bulk buyers are taking a gamble here and they are no smarter nor resolute than any investment house or hedge fund from the past year.
When they want to unload their units, they may get more than $200/sf and they might get less. One things for certain. The fact that they got the units in bulk for $200/sf means no other RE fund or group of Yahoos were willing to pony up $200.01/sf
JL,
I agree. If the market turns up, they are in a position for a great profit. The data does not indicate a return to the go-go days of the past decade. If these guys sell immediately for $250, that is a 25% profit. In today’s world, any positive return is a plus. In 6 months would not surprise me to see them sell at $225 and take a 12% profit and run, keeping only the prime units from the bulk sale. They may even sell under $200k to eliminate carrying cost and place their bets on premium units-this would be my play. Demands on financial returns will probably keep these buyers from holding all units long enough to make a significant profit-investors want their cash profit today. difficult environment to invest in for long term.
Lucas,
I just figured out the new format and it is harder to read than the old. There is a lot of white space (wasted) on the right margin. All the blocks now at the very bottom of the page are hard to access and hard to read with the small type. JMHO.
What is the update on Paramount Bay?
Guys this MB sale is the insider deal. Tom Jarmoluk is a partner in Hiperion, developer of MB and he satisfied his own loan to the project by converting it to the ownership of actual units. Nothing changed, developer still owns the unsold inventory.
AJ,
Today real estate is a declining asset. The carrying costs of a bulk buy are tremendous. I don’t know anybody who would invest so heavily in one building and not spread their risk around. I am directly questioning the intellignece of these bulk buyers and am convinced they are fools until proven otherwise.
Big enterprises like Jungle Island and Bayside Market Place cannot pay their rent. This idea that big investors know what they are doing is complete junk. Miami Beach just had several major real estate investors get foreclosed on. Read the newspaper.
gables,
#205 and #207 are spot on.
JL,
I agree with you 100% on this “One things for certain. The fact that they got the units in bulk for $200/sf means no other RE fund or group of Yahoos were willing to pony up $200.01/sf”
That means $200 is the new Cieling for a bulk purchase. Every bulk buyer now wants to get something for that much or less. May be that’s why Quantum deal fell through as the bulk buyer might be wanting to one better than the MB deal and asking for sub $200/sf price and the talks broke down.
Wild Bill, I do read papers, at least the online editions.
But thanks anyway for the new times story on Grand View Palace of NBV. It sent a chill up my spine. I actually considered that building back in the days. But it would have been a no go if I had physically been inside for a look see. The online photos of the building and the views were superb while the core was rotting inside.
You see, I like that kind of objective negative news posted from you. It is very useful and very unlike your irrelevant stories of a man getting stabbed at a Park West night Club or a SOBE back alley. If you have scoops about bad news of a certain building, we all welcome it here. Nothing should be hidden. That is why we have this blog, for sharing info.
AJ post #200 “of all the buildings that opened after 2007, only 3 buildings are fully closed or at least over 95% closed.
1) 50 Biscayne 2) Apogee 3) (and now) Marina Blue. Am I missing any?”
AJ, the only building which closed is Apogee. The rest are insider deals within development entities to transfer the unsold inventory. Related brought in their buyout fund to buy the units at 50 Biscayne and Hyperion “bought” their own units.
The reason that there is no bulk activity, except MB purchase earlier, is because the rental market in Miami can not support a purchase price in excess of $125/ft. With huge inventory overhang no sane investor will be looking to brake even on the carry and hope for the appreciation in value. Any bulk purchase will be underwritten as a rental and would have to trade at 10% on the projected net cash flow.
Apogee is a very highend project which did not have speculative buying because of its very high unit pricing and small number of units.