419 responses so far ↓

• 1 interested /Aug 28, 2008 at 8:23 pm  Vote:    

  L@@K at this “investors”…..

  7700 COLLINS AV # 1, Miami Beach, FL 33141**

  Price Reduced: 06/30/08 — $500,000 to $480,000
  Price Reduced: 07/07/08 — $480,000 to $460,000
  Price Reduced: 07/15/08 — $460,000 to $440,000
  Price Reduced: 07/24/08 — $440,000 to $400,000
  Price Reduced: 08/04/08 — $400,000 to $380,000
  Price Reduced: 08/07/08 — $380,000 to $360,000
  Price Reduced: 08/11/08 — $360,000 to $340,000
  Price Reduced: 08/18/08 — $340,000 to $320,000
  Price Reduced: 08/28/08 — $320,000 to $300,000

  You know what that is? That is the sight of your investment turning into a nightmare. It’s eating your lunch. You see, if you have a millions of milkshakes(or money which can buy milkshakes), and I have a condo….and you give me your milkshakes (or enough to buy millions of milkshakes) for that condo….well, you overpaid for your condo….and I….DRINK…..YOUR…..MILKSHAKE. I DRINK IT UP! SLURP!

  I love that movie. And the message rings true. You are losing money, you’ll continue to lose it. FOR YEARS. I take pleasure in that fact. I love to see the fool separated from their money. I will be buying your “luxury” condo at no more than $150/sq foot. Maybe less….

• 2 Michael Phelps /Aug 28, 2008 at 8:37 pm  Vote:    

  Yo, I heard a rumor that Michael Phelps was buying a condo at 900 biscayne. If so, that could buoy….keep them above $400/sf at 900 Biscayne. So you’re wrong interested. You don’t know what you’re talking about bro.

• 3 AJ /Aug 28, 2008 at 8:42 pm  Vote:    

  Phelps and Daddy Yankee too.
  If I had a cool 2 Mil, I’d buy that pad.

• 4 Jerry Harper /Aug 28, 2008 at 9:10 pm  Vote:    

  Interested… milk shakes…. geez the guy problem scoops ice cream for a living. Your financials would be best suited for purchasing condoms, not condos. JH

• 5 JR /Aug 28, 2008 at 9:24 pm  Vote:    

  You could use better pictures. That condo is gorgeous.

• 6 Renter Tom /Aug 28, 2008 at 9:59 pm  Vote:    

  There is one thing I like about the condo I am in, the views are great but with the layout of the building and angle of the coastline, I have complete privacy and never have to close my master bedroom blinds but can still look down the beach for miles…. With this unit, looks like there is a building next door that can peak in, I guess it depends on which rooms.

• 7 900 or bust /Aug 28, 2008 at 11:37 pm  Vote:    

  So… in another post, I read about how 900 Biscayne is the first of the ULTRA Luxury buildings to open, with the following building following in late ‘08 and ‘09.
  1. Icon Brickell
  2. Epic
  3. Infinity
  4. Everglades
  5. Marquis &
  6. Paramount Bay

  What are the boards thoughts on the following:
  - Will being an early entry Ultra Luxury brand vote well for 900 Biscayne?
  - Is there room today, even a possibility of success for Ultra Luxury in Miami’s condo economy?
  - How will the later entries into this category of product quality affect 900 Biscayne?
  - In your opinion, do you think that 900 has a better chance of being “successful” in todays landscape? On this front, define what you would view as successful… high closing rate, low default rate, healthy HOA… etc.
  - And finally, do you think this project justifies $400psf today? How about 3, 6, and 9 months from now… where will they be at $psf?

  -

• 8 Michael Phelps /Aug 29, 2008 at 12:51 am  Vote:    

  Jerry Harper….you’re a tool. He’s talking about “There Will Be Blood”.

• 9 JL /Aug 29, 2008 at 1:49 am  Vote:    

  $1.9 million for $3,493 comes out to $543 / ft. asking for a true Penthouse unit right now in what is thought to be an Ultra-Lux building in Park West.

  My guess -if it does not sell- it’ll be asking high $400’s sq foot in 6 months.

  Relatively priced, that would put the regular units at 900 in the $300-$400 sq/foot range which would put Marina Blue in the $250-$350 sq/foot range.

  Write it down, my Crystal Ball prediction for the area 6 months out… Assuming of course Doc loans can be had with 10-20% down.

• 10 JL /Aug 29, 2008 at 1:55 am  Vote:    

  Renter Tom,

  I hear ya. Some of the Related Condos are ridiculous that way. Right up against each other with half the condo facing each other.

• 11 Tatiana /Aug 29, 2008 at 2:05 am  Vote:    

  This penthouse is saddled with an awkward floor plan and a very jarring linear spaces . I am disappointed with the bowling alley confined potentially Irish pub kitchen layout .The bathrooms are “okay” at best .Where is the Wow factor in this penthouse , There should be a seamless expanse of glass with a 180 deg. view .Thanks to the obtrusive badly though out floor plan the living room leaves much to be seen.Why do all these condosreplicate the monotonous designs from the floor plans and the decor .How is this different from every other “luxury condo ” that I have seen besides the cubic floor plan .

  Phelps just started to taste what money is and I don’t think this is or would be his first impulsive investment especially in Miami . Why would anyone one want daddy Yankee as a neighbor , do you know what kind of scum would follow .

• 12 JL /Aug 29, 2008 at 2:15 am  Vote:    

  “Why would anyone one want daddy Yankee as a neighbor”

  This is Miami, if he brings the Ho’s, then he’s welcome with open arms. Would sure beat a Capponi lounge.

• 13 AJ /Aug 29, 2008 at 4:21 am  Vote:    

  Have a happy Labor Day Weekend everyone!

• 14 Jane Q. Renter /Aug 29, 2008 at 8:56 am  Vote:    

  I’ve been reading this blog for a while and thought of a question that I think hasn’t been brought up before. I see that there are TONS of new luxury condos for sale and many more to hit the market soon in downtown and brickell. How will this affect real estate in other parts of the city. If all the young professionals and wealthy folks who traditionally bought condos or homes in coconut grove and coral gables are going to flock to downtown and brickell. Is real estate going to be hit the hardest in places like coconut grove.
  I’m a young, single gal who banks a little over 100k a year and an looking to buy a 1/1 next year (I rent now in North Beach). I don’t think the downtown luxury market is really my scene, but would love to buy a condo in coconut grove. I’m very bearish on real estate as a whole in Miami, so if downtown and brickell really take off (which i think it might), how will this affect property values in other nice parts of the city. Thx.

• 15 Cylindrical Columns /Aug 29, 2008 at 9:04 am  Vote:    

  What is up with Miami and the tacky cylindrical columns in every building. They should just stick a huge sphere right next to it and then we could listen to Duran Duran and just pretend we’re in the 1980s. Are they hoping for a 1980s fugly architecture revival? Lord almighty. The design language is terrible in all these crappy “luxury” condos. Just because something is made of gold or Italian marble doesn’t mean it its classy. Its like those tacky ladies that wear Louis Vuitton print track suits with Louis Vuitton print shoes and a Louis Vuitton print handbag with fake nails and fake eyelashes and extensions. Sure it costed a lot… but money can’t buy you class.

  In case you need an education in class, look at Manhattan, or Paris, or London. Even the over-the top sheiks in Dubai don’t demand this gaudy crap.

• 16 Probably too cynical /Aug 29, 2008 at 9:26 am  Vote:    

  Jane Q.,

  I seriously doubt Brickell is going to attract many residents from Coral Gables or Coconut Grove, unless it is a young professional moving from apartment rental to apartment rental. Those communities are established and well-planned. And the commute from either of these to Brickell is not particularly bad.

  Brickell is not being built as a community. there are no parks, few shops, few groceries, few dining options outside MB Village. Brickell Key is nice, but other than that quality of life is relatively low. Brickell is being built entirely for naive speculators who at one time has too easy access to too much credit. If only a few buildings had gone up, then it might have been quite nice. but the overbuilding is such that, should these buildings ever reach even 50% occupancy, then living here will be quite miserable.

• 17 Plaza parking rip off /Aug 29, 2008 at 9:34 am  Vote:    

  So Plaza on Brickell is going to start charging residents $200/month to park their second cars. This is outrageous, as there are literally floors of available parking on the higher floors of the parking garage. (building is, what, 25% occupied at most.)

  what a way to screw the few residents this building has. Won’t be long before they start charging gym memberships and pool memberships for the use of those ammenities.

  but this is also no doubt a sign of things to come with Brickell condo living…..

• 18 la la /Aug 29, 2008 at 9:59 am  Vote:    

  Wooowwwww, Plaza is charging now too. What c**p. Good to know, thanks!

• 19 Wild Bill /Aug 29, 2008 at 11:16 am  Vote:    

  900 Biscayne will do fine. Downtown has a better living standard than other areas mentioned. It is like living in a resort style community. You have excellent schools and a highly regarded neighborhood. Crime is nonexistent. You can walk to your CEO job in shorts and a tank top and not sweat to death. Even if your making mega bucks you can ditch your high end car and ride the Metromover. I would definitely recommend anybody with a half a million to consider one of the 1 bedrooms at 900 Biscayne. It truly is a value building in a great neighborhood.

• 20 Lucas Lechuga /Aug 29, 2008 at 11:29 am  Vote:    

  JL,

  A penthouse unit at Ten Museum Park resold for $622 per square foot in June 2008. I’d much rather be at 900 Biscayne Bay or Marina Blue than Ten Museum Park. How are you coming up with your numbers?

• 21 JL /Aug 29, 2008 at 12:10 pm  Vote:    

  Lucas,

  From my post:

  “$1.9 million for 3,493 comes out to $543 / ft. asking for a true Penthouse unit right now in what is thought to be an Ultra-Lux building in Park West.

  My guess -if it does not sell- it’ll be asking high $400’s sq foot in 6 months.”

  Relatively priced, that would put the regular units at 900 in the $300-$400 sq/foot range which would put Marina Blue in the $250-$350 sq/foot range.

  Write it down, my Crystal Ball prediction for the area 6 months out”

  ——-
  I’m assuming the listed price is an asking price so the $ sq/ft was just a calculation. The high $400’s per sq foot asking price estimation if it doesn’t find a buyer in 6 months is a 10% reduction in asking price essentially in 6 months.

  I do think the penthouse units are substantially nicer than normal units so it should carry a $ sq. foot premium as most penthouse units do.

  In 6 months, IF this particular unit is asking in the high $400’s per sq. foot, then the “regular” units should be asking $300-$400 on a relative basis.

  Just a guess for 6 months out if the market stays on it’s downward course. With the extra supply of high end, ie. Icon and Epic around the corner, that’s what I predict in $sq foot asking prices half a year out.

• 22 JL /Aug 29, 2008 at 12:23 pm  Vote:    

  The post was basically about relative values. If a penthouse unit in 900 now is asking $543/ sq ft. I think the normal units need to be asking $450/ sq ft. and under right now (few are BTW).

  Regardless, it doesn’t seem like many people are in a condo buying mood now so lets see what happens with the actual sales prices.

• 23 interested /Aug 29, 2008 at 12:36 pm  Vote:    

  Lucas, before you get too smug consider that 40% of the NATION’s fraud is occuring in Florida. That sale was fraud or stupidity. Either way the resale will be lower.

• 24 jcrimes /Aug 29, 2008 at 1:24 pm  Vote:    

  can we stop calling these buildings luxury? really, so you have a nice business center and a ping pong table…so what. the balls will be lost within the month, the paddles stripped and the computers will be down with a virus.

  that said….jane q., no rush to move into the grove. depending on what you’re looking for (i’d go townhome in the grove and avoid the condo buildings imho), there will be deals for the foreseeable future. hell, today’s foreclosures alone are going to take a year to clear out of the system. and there are more to come.

• 25 Wild Bill /Aug 29, 2008 at 1:39 pm  Vote:    

  I would pay a $100 per square foot premium to be closer to Bayside Market Place. Just like paying more to live near Lincoln Road. It’s worth it.

• 26 interested /Aug 29, 2008 at 2:24 pm  Vote:    

  Is that the real wild bill? You sound more like wild bull today. Very bullish indeed.

• 27 AJ /Aug 29, 2008 at 2:49 pm  Vote:    

  Jane Q,
  I agree with cynical. It is not as much as the grove and gables people are moving downtown. It is those from Kendal and Doral and the likes. So if anything, these new condos will affect, those outlying areas of Miami.

  900 or Bust,
  I was the one who posted that post you mentioned. This is my take on the subject.

  Luxury buildings such as 18, Q, 50 Biscayne, Plaza etc will survive because, the prices the owners paid are reasonable to start with. They can rent out these flats by only subsidising 15 to 20% of the carrying costs. At that level, there are plenty of renters who can fill these flats. These owners can ride out the storm.

  But in the Ultra Luxury segment such as 900, Icon, Epic etc the pre-con prices itself is very high. People paid exhorbitant price per sf for these in the year 2005. So when a 2/2 in 1800 or Quantum owners can rent them for $2000-$2500 and survive, the same cannot be said of these Ultra Lux buildings. A 2/2 in these would have to rent for $4000/month to even make any sense to carry them by the owners.

  Unfortunate truth is that as there are many middle income people who can afford a $2250/month on housing, there are almost none who can afford $4000/month.

  You have to understand one thing, people are only willing to pay so much for the bells and whistles. Just because 900 or Icon may have a Miele refrigirator and 1800 has a GE profile, does not make a difference to the renter. They both do a great job in keeping your food cold. It basically comes down to affordability.

  Even if the Ultra Lux owners want to deeply subsidise the renters to a tune of 40% and ask only $3000 for a 2/2, they still cannot attract the young professionals that the Lux buildings are able to attract. That is because, at $2200-$2500, the young professionals are tapped out. Every $100 extra over that will be a strech for them.

  So the owners who paid $400K for a 2/2 in Lux segment have these renters as saviors. But the owners who paid $600k or over for a 2/2 in these Ultra lux segement will have a tough time carrying them unless they are very rich.

  So I see trouble for this Ultra- Lux segment.
  The second tier buildings may just do fine.

• 28 Wild Bill /Aug 29, 2008 at 3:14 pm  Vote:    

  People from Kendall and Doral should sell their 2/2 units and buy 1/1’s downtown. Downtown is more family friendly. Natural progression for families is to move to downtown areas with lower crime and better schools. Downtown is the place. Trust me.

• 29 Wild Bill /Aug 29, 2008 at 3:31 pm  Vote:    

  In Doral you can spend $358,900 for a 3/2.5 townhouse with a one car garage with 1600 sq. ft..
  900 Biscayne 1/2 with 1,050 sq/ft can run $465,000.

• 30 JL /Aug 29, 2008 at 3:50 pm  Vote:    

  What to ask before buying condo

  http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-condo-buying_chomes_0829aug29,0,4725826.story

  Article was unexceptional except for this gem.

  “One gimmick to watch out for is when developers advertise a building as 80 percent or 90 percent sold.

  That sounds good, but sometimes what developers are really saying is they’ve sold most of the units they’ve put on the market, rather than most of the units in the building.”

  LOL, I’m not surprised but man, that is pathetic.

• 31 JD /Aug 29, 2008 at 5:19 pm  Vote:    

  Jane Q., what do you do for a living if you dont mind me asking?

• 32 RCR /Aug 29, 2008 at 5:37 pm  Vote:    

  Everyone seems to be real sure of these young professionals moving downtown. Hopefully they are not about 50-75K upside down on their Kendall/doral homes. Hopefully they never plan to get married or have children or overnight platonic visitors for that matter. Hopefully their degrees did not include economics, finance and common sense. Get real the condo/home recession for south Florida is only beginning and there are no plausible reasons why the prices should then return to the unsupported previous prices. What kind of investment is it that you can maintain with only a 15-20% negative subsidy for as long as you care to so you can then take the big loss.

  Things went wrong. This is a correction, not a dip, temporarily or otherwise. It is a correction that has only begun.

• 33 Jane Q. Renter /Aug 29, 2008 at 5:40 pm  Vote:    

  JD, not one bit. I’m a project manager for a large cell phone company. I have an BSEE degree from a top 10 school and experience working for a federal law enforcement agency. I moved down here from Washington DC 2 years ago and love the area, but still getting use to not having a change of season.

  AJ, would the downtown market attract people from the ‘burbs? I’m a pretty ‘with it’ person, but I don’t think I could really feel comfortable living downtown. Maybe a little too smug for my liking, kind of reminds me of living in Boston or DC. I could be wrong though, I don’t go there too often. Still, seems like everything is pretty expensive.

• 34 JL /Aug 29, 2008 at 5:54 pm  Vote:    

  “Maybe a little too smug for my liking, kind of reminds me of living in Boston or DC. ”

  I never heard of downtowm Miami described as smug… what would you mean by that.

  Anyway, alot of the interesting areas in Boston and DC cater to the heavily educated grad student/YUP crowd. There really is nothing like that in Miami and certainly not downtown.

• 35 george /Aug 29, 2008 at 6:14 pm  Vote:    

  ..think your chances of finding the cambridge/boston ambiance and intellectual brio-if that survives in this climate -might be the grove..but not in downtown..

  way back when in the BC days-Before Condos- the Grove had an artsy fartsy sense with neat small cafes galleries sorta like cambridge in the 1970s, the west village nyc before it was overrun with drugs. and georgetown area of dc…

  now grove seems less artsy and more Big Name chain stores-don’t know if the old time grove characters just gave up and left after these changes.

• 36 bc /Aug 29, 2008 at 7:25 pm  Vote:    

  Lucas -
  As much as I think 10 Museum is a horrible building throughout the entire design, didn’t the penthouses have private pools up top? I know 2 did. That probably drove that high price.

• 37 dlr /Aug 29, 2008 at 7:46 pm  Vote:    

  Have you actually been in 900? I have, and so has Lucas….don’t you remember his blog saying it was the finest of all the new developments he’s seen in several years???Living at 900 with a future Museum Park, a future Miami World Center, a future Island Gardens Megayacht marina, walking distance to all concerts/ Heat games/ Performing Arts center….Who wouldn’t pay extra for this? I like to live in an area with a future….the city of Miami will not let this area go to waste…they won’t make themselves look bad and let the Arsht Center die…they have a MAJOR investment in the arts center and will MAKE IT HAPPEN for development in the surrounding area.
  All the doom and gloom you guys love to post is getting old…fact is, there is always a demand for a high end condo with water views you can’t find in other cities. Men have egos, they will always want to take their woman into their fabulous condo to impress them.
  Real men will not nickel and dime and wait their entire youth for the market to turn.

• 38 dlr /Aug 29, 2008 at 7:48 pm  Vote:    

  By the way, Lucas, I agree with a previous poster that these pics don’t do 900 justice….wish you could comment about your current thoughts regarding the building.

• 39 teepee /Aug 29, 2008 at 8:06 pm  Vote:    

  Re: the parking at the Plaza. The $200 per month is for VALET of a second car - you can’t even rent a second spot that you can park yourself. Otherwise, you have to park in a different building, or on the street. They are also charging for valet now too, for guests.

• 40 The Ace /Aug 29, 2008 at 8:09 pm  Vote:    

  Hang tough or hand fire the smart money don’t need no aggravation, hang tough at $125.00, hang tough at $125.00 or hang fire.

  The smart money.

• 41 Richard /Aug 29, 2008 at 8:58 pm  Vote:    

  I can remember when THE penthouse was the whole top floor not the top 5 floors with 3 or 4 “penthouses” per floor. I also remember when a new building didn’t necessarily mean luxury building. That said, the 900 penthouse floor plan and views are fantastic in my mind–except for part looking in windows next door

• 42 la la /Aug 30, 2008 at 5:27 am  Vote:    

  bc,

  The self-coined “rock-star architect” that designed 10 Museum Park is going to be very hurt that you don’t like his design.

• 43 Kramer /Aug 30, 2008 at 10:04 am  Vote:    

  Jane Q Renter

  Jane unless you want to go into the residential north grove or south grove stay away from Coconut Grove- The Grove curled up and died about 10-12 yrs ago or more. The center Grove from thursday thru sunday becomes at night a drunken frat boy party from UMiami guys. From soeone whose been there and done that. If you dontwant something too edgy try either downtown brickell or a great alternative is the Roads Area close in but not in the middle with a great location and great value. Good Luc.

• 44 Kramer /Aug 30, 2008 at 10:20 am  Vote:    

  Had a nice chuckle with the brain renter tom who rents in Sunny Isles- the $600-$700 per sq foot - the ambiance is about as attractive as visiting a hog farm strip malls no sidewalks you are on the beach bu theres no reason aside from the beach that that makes you want to leave your apartment- not to mention the age requirements for Sunny Isles. Hilarious.

• 45 HSM /Aug 30, 2008 at 11:14 am  Vote:    

  Lucas,
  Have been reading your blog for about one year. Moved here from NYC. Your site greatly helped me with my finding the right condo in Miami. Thank you.
  I bought in Ten Museum Park. I LOVE IT. Amazing architecture, stunning water views and deluxe finishes. A pool deck that could rival any other in Miami, SOBE, wherever.
  Valet Parking: Love it!!!! Just call down. When I arrive, the car is waiting for me. Who wouldn’t like that? When entering the building, I just walk away from the car. DOWNTOWN: Anyone who thinks downtown will not be the place to be within the next several years, is a FOOL.
  Coming from NYC, I believe I got my place for a very good price. Now listen to this folks……………. I bought my condo for my HOME. Sure, it’s an investment, but it’s where I live, a HOME. I’m not going anywhere soon, so I’m in it for the long haul. I think a lot of people do buy for the long haul.
  All of you BITTER blogers need to realize this. IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT MAKING A BUCK! It’s about the quality of life and what one likes and wants.
  A lot of us buy into a building to enjoy it!
  I think it’s sad that so many of you sit around and complain and criticize others for the decisions they make.
  YOU are the ones who will never buy and will watch the pleasures of life pass you by, hating others who do. Once again, how sad.

  Lucas, keep up the good work.
  Most sincerely,
  HSM

• 46 JL /Aug 30, 2008 at 3:25 pm  Vote:    

  If you have to buy now then you have to buy now. If you don’t have to buy now then it’s prudent to wait because:

  1) It looks like condo prices are still falling with a tremendous amount of inventory finally coming online in the next 6 months
  2) It appears lending has gotten distinctly tougher over the past 6 months ago so people trying to close in the near future or even wanting to buy a distressed resale might have a much tougher time.
  3) Most of the people who bought downtown condos pre-construction were flippers and most of the people who buy now will be flippers and most of the people who buy distressed resales later will be flippers. People might not be professional flippers, but very few will buy a downtown condo with a serious intention to live there 5+ years.

  Miami condos are about transient living. There are tons of units available to buy now, there will be a ton in 6 months and there will be a ton in 6 years. It’s not about being unable to find a unit you want, you will always find several for sale that would fit any criteria. It’s about how much do you think you will have to pay now versus later.

  Things might be different if Downtown Miami were fully developed out like people are hoping it will be in 5 years… then it would be about buying to live in the NOW. However, what if development in the city grinds to a halt?

  Who knows how much of an impact declining property taxes will have on city/state budgets. Would you really be surprised to see a headline in a year saying Museum Park and just about every major public works project gets shelved for the time being?

• 47 Visionary /Aug 30, 2008 at 3:51 pm  Vote:    

  Kramer,

  My e-mail address is hardym@directbox.com

• 48 dlr /Aug 30, 2008 at 3:52 pm  Vote:    

  Question for HSM…
  Congrats on your unit at 10 Museum….any news on the Clinique Spa???? And how did your gym turn out??? Are they finished????

• 49 jcrimes /Aug 30, 2008 at 4:04 pm  Vote:    

  HSM
  quality of life? in downtown miami? you friend, are quite witty.

• 50 Julian /Aug 30, 2008 at 4:28 pm  Vote:    

  Not my cup of tea as an area - and the price seems a litle overegged But, the prospect of $50-60k a year in property tax/HOA just makes it laughable

• 51 lara /Aug 30, 2008 at 5:13 pm  Vote:    

  HSM,

  I agree with you. It is always a gamble and yet you have to like the area. I also strongly believe that the area is going to be great. We constantly watch different areas in big cities. those who bought earlier win. Look what happened to Soho, Meat Packing District and later to Williamsburg and etc in NY. Prices go up much faster than the area changes. Every City is different and has its own charecteristics. I believe that Downtown, Design District… Wynwood have all ingredients to become great areas of Miami. They are not may be perfect now but changes will come.

• 52 JL /Aug 30, 2008 at 5:46 pm  Vote:    

  New York is New York and Miami is Miami and they are worlds apart except for the velvet rope.

• 53 JL /Aug 30, 2008 at 5:46 pm  Vote:    

  What is the HOA for this 900 condo unit anyway?

• 54 AJ /Aug 30, 2008 at 7:40 pm  Vote:    

  JL,
  I dont agree with you on two counts. Why are you assuming everyone to be a flipper? There are quite a few people who bought to live.

  In 1800 I met 31 different owners who came to the association meeting. Almost all of them bought to live for good. Even young couples who are planning either one or two children down the road said that they would not trade this for a single family home in a million years.
  It is possible that such a resolve might change down the road, but they are extremely bullish that they can raise a family in a 2/2 in downtown area. Among those home owners, I have also met Young couples with out children, Empty nesters, Retirees, Gays and lesbians who are both single and couples, all gung-ho about living here and never leaving. Most of these owners bought the flats pre-con.
  Maybe you know something that I dont know? If so please let me know, how come your views are different from my experiences?

  Secondly,
  You said, “people are expecting downtown to be fully developed in 5 years”. Maybe so. In 5 years, I will have a choice of 100 restaurants instead of 20. In 5 years, I will have 10 spermarkets instead of 1 at present. In 5 years I will have a choice of 20 lounges/clubs instead of 2 as of now. In 5 years there may be 5bums in the area instead of 50. But who cares? Really!
  I have lived in downtown in the present “wretched” “underdeveloped” state as according to you for 3 months from April to June. I have had a better time, more conveniences at my beck and call, more facilities and more of everything than I have ever experienced in my life either in New York or any other city I have lived before.
  So I just don’t understand what you are saying or why you are saying these things.

• 55 RCR /Aug 30, 2008 at 8:01 pm  Vote:    

  When I make downer comments they have nothing to do with the advantages of downtown and near downtown living for saving time and gas, plus the views, possible excitement and other interesting and positive aspects. I only feel value wise there is trouble ahead, but granted many buyers who got in at pre-construction prices a few years back, not to mention their deposits long ago paid are not in the same position as would be purchasers at the insane and unsupportable prices recently asked and which will continue to be asked even though that day is over.

  The areas benefits are real and future benefits are exciting and likely to materialize but in no time frame that a buyer should factor in.

  If I was the first to plunk down my deposit for a nice unit at Quantum (for examle) way back when, I wouldn’t be sweating it. I’d say so what!

  Its the current market that’s drastically out of whack and there is the major diffrence between a home and an intelligent investment.

• 56 interested /Aug 30, 2008 at 8:22 pm  Vote:    

  Either as an investment or as a home, prices are too high. Lets consider that condos are 100% (150K-200K) over priced at least. You can sure buy a lot of gas and take a lot of hours off work (driving) for that money. How much do you ballers earn an hour? Probably not more than $20-30 dollars/hr after tax. Do the math. location isn’t worth the 100% premium.

  You people denied there was a bubble, then you denied prices would decrease (the would just appreciate slower) , now you deny prices will drop drastically. You were wrong before and you’ll be wrong again.

• 57 RCR /Aug 30, 2008 at 9:11 pm  Vote:    

  Has anyone ever compared the NAR ongoing analysis and explanations as to why all of the crazy price increases made sense while they were going up at insane rates with other analysis over the same time frame from other analysts wh’s bent was the stock market. It is sickening how you can not believe anyone or anything but reality is here and is beyond obvious. $150/sq. ft. for “luxury condos with decent views’ Let’s see.

• 58 JL /Aug 30, 2008 at 9:21 pm  Vote:    

  AJ,

  “People might not be professional flippers, but very few will buy a downtown condo with a serious intention to live there 5+ years.”

  I bet more than 50% of the resales for these downtown condos will come within 5 years of the first closing… and further, I bet more than 50% of the 2nd resales will come within 5 years of the first resale.

  People might not be professional flippers, but there is no industry in Miami to support this type of growth. Unless Miami goes from a travel destination to a living and working destination, there will be a revolving door with these condos. Miami will always be the city to go to when you’re not ready to grow up. When you grow up, you flip the condo and go to Lauderdale, a house in Coral Gables, or back to the NE. It would be different if Miami had a large educated working class in the Urban Core ie. high paying technical jobs, but right now that’s a fantasy.

  “if Downtown Miami were fully developed out like people are hoping it will be in 5 years…”

  AJ, you might be the exception, but few people would be content if Miami’s public works projects stopped now. A lot of the marketing with these building is not about the “NOW”, it’s about … well when Park West develops out there’s going to be.,.. or when Biscayne and the Performing Arts center gets cleaned up it’s going to be…

  Have you ever thought what if it never comes to be? Watson Island may stay a dump. Museum Park may stay a dump and Biscayne may stay a dump. Sure, you’ll be OK with it, but I doubt most condo owners will be. A lot of people buying these condos aren’t from Miami and therefore are not used to how inept and untrustworthy public officials are down here.

  The city made all these plans for public improvement when Real Estate Prices and RE value projections were maybe 50% higher than they currently are. During the RE boom, was the city and state running a surplus? Did the Performing Arts Center get built on time and on budget? Because if they weren’t running a surplus when tax money was raining down, how are they going to manage over the next 5 years when tax appraisers get to reality and adjust the appraisals to true market value?

  When all these condos are finally built out, the city will still be livable and enjoyable, but it just might be blander than people are counting on right now.

• 59 Renter Tom /Aug 30, 2008 at 9:33 pm  Vote:    

  This downturn and the credit crisis are going global. The U.S. lead into and will lead out of it with the others tethered on various length strings behind. The U.S. is like the big speed boat and the others are tire tubes being pulled behind is with different length ropes and different weight people on them…all the tubes will follow the down turn but will enter the turn at different times and will follow a similar, but not exact, path with the BRIC countries swinging the most wildly.

  It ain’t gonna be pretty and with home prices going to be set by incomes (instead of the asset appreciation of the very same levered asset — that is what makes it a bubble) and an actual substantial down payment required we are in for substantial price declines. As I previously posted, the return to the long term trend line will be overshot to the downside. There is little doubt with dual housing asset declines and stock market declines. Earned income has returned as an important factor.

  Until after the end of the year, some people will still be in denial. I keep hearing now from people that in 5 years these places will be worth twice as much….that’s around a 14% pre year increase….yeah right.

  Until then, be sure to have your cash covered by FDIC.

• 60 Wild Bill /Aug 30, 2008 at 10:12 pm  Vote:    

  If your going to raise a family in this area you should look at the district 2 or 3 schools. I’m not a real estate agent so I could be wrong about this. The proper district and public schools should be posted by the many real estate professionals who visit this website.
  I looked up two middle schools and one elementary school within this area. It looks to me as if these new condominiums are still in the poorest zip codes for the area.

  These buildings are going to be filled with a bunch of single divorced men. Not a prime target audience for many business either. With the tight credit market I suspect many small business in the area will be gone in a few years. Maybe a Chinese takeout will survive.

  South Pointe Elementary in Miami Beach is rated A+. That’s were your ex-wife and child will most likely reside when they ditch you because you refuse to move out of a crappy neighborhood.

• 61 Jane Q. Renter /Aug 30, 2008 at 10:52 pm  Vote:    

  WildBill.. zing!

  I find that whole ‘Biscayne Wall’ area pretty fascinating. The area is full of extremely impressive and expensive condos. Some of the nicest buildings in Miami are there (TMP, MB, 900, Marquis, etc.) Yet, the entire area around it is dead. Most of the land to the west is vacant and the area isn’t pedestrian friendly one bit. I would really like to see that area come along nicely, but i’m not sure what can be done. Maybe someone in urban planning can chime in here.

  Tell me your thoughts on this. During the whole construction boom over the past few years, it seems that Miami and San Diego probably had the most new condo buildings out of any city I have been too. Miami seemed to go the tall skyscraper approach, while SD had more mid-rise building (10-15 floors). SD seems much more pedestrian friendly and downtown has more of a ‘flow’ too it. Like Miami, I have a feeling that SD will be hurting pretty soon as well. Thoughts on the 2 cities?