Contact Us
Call Us At: 305-428-3860
Hablamos Español
MESSAGE US
OR EMAIL US
"*" indicates required fields
Global Settings
language
currency
units of measurement
Does Jade 3509 has either a direct or partial bay view?
Direct view. Take a look at the pictures by clicking on its link.
compared to a year ago, these are great prices. but today, look for 1B at $100k and 2B at $150k on the low end. $200k for a 2B is history. and rentals are also dropping like bricks as well. lucas, could you give us any info on the number of units sold over the past month or so? my best guess is next to nothing, but curious.
gables,
I’m going to try to post a new Brickell Condo Index this upcoming week. That will show the number of closed sales within the past month for each building in Brickell.
Lucas,
Any news on what’s happening with Everglades on the Bay? I hear that closings have started.
I agree with gables. What looks good today won’t seem like a good deal in 6 moths.
We are too far from the bottom to be jumping in. The buildings have HOA collection problems, so the risk it’s still high even if prices are lower. Good post otherwise Lucas.
I think we will start seeing a lot more of the “intentional foreclosures” in the near future. They have been going strong now in California so I anticipate a lot more to come in Florida… Just what we need, people with the ability to honor their mortgage commitments deciding not to and sticking there mistakes onto others…..where or where has the moral hazard gone? Oh I know, it died about 2 weeks ago…..
i dont think the foreclosures have even come close the the numbers we will see in the future. banks are deliberately delaying foreclosures. my guess is to hold off on paying tax and HOA fees, and to see what if any bailout comes along which may benefit them in the long run.
some trends i have started to see in the past year. typically you will have common units listed for both rent and sale. these are not foreclosures, but they will be soon. these units are at the low end of the rental scale, and also typically offer cheap and/or short sale as well. these units will all become foreclosures in the next year. add those to the number of units in a building already in foreclosure to see how bad the building will get. and more units on the dual rental/sale list enter the market every month. i have also seen a number of rental units on the market for an extended period of time-over 120 days. any rental on the market that long is most likely headed to foreclosure as well.
The deals with Jade look good however…..
-still would be hesitant to buy in the buidling due to its reputation for mortgage fraud
-last I heard (August 08), banks had blacklisted the building and no mortgages were being written there (all cash deals only)
-threat of looming assessments (any idea on how big they could be? insiders know anything about this?)
Just saw on another website, closing data for some Sunny Isles Beach condos:
Trump Tower I: started closings on 1/8/2008 has had 53.1% close.
Trump Tower II: started closings on 7/30/2008 has had 5.9% close.
These numbers are as of 9/28/2008.
TTI actually had more closings than I expected. But since there are three towers the closing rate on the project so far, even though closings haven’t started on TTIII yet, are at less than 20%. This will be an interesting project to watch for sure. TTI never seems to have even 5% of the lights on and some very very bored valets.
Looks like a lot for sale and for rent. This project, Trump Towers SIB, is going to dump a ton on the market……a ton! Heck, looks like some good rental deals, maybe I’ll move…..oh, the true luxury and carefree lifestyle of a renter….sample buildings at will at bargain prices! 🙂 LOL Seriously, never would have even thought about being a renter a year ago……..it sure beats owning in this market! I keep thinking, if things get really ugly they will have a 2 for 1 sale soon……….
Good price of $400/sf for a direct bayview in Jade.
BUT……
Taxes per month $2523 (At an assessed value of 1.37 Million Dollars)
Killer HOA fees of $1405
ie. $3928/month of taxes and HOA over and above the Mortgage.
I know the crazy HOA’s are the own fault of Jade. But these obscene taxes must go too. Does any elected official has any shame left what so ever to justify 30,281/year taxes for just a flat?
Renter Tom,
Read the SIB article in today’s Miami Herald.
#12 – If you want more govt, vote in big govt, don’t complain about the high taxes AJ. This is just the start, just the start indeed. Most people become republicans when they start really paying taxes…we should tax the college kids instead of giving them low cost loans so they will stop voting for big govt! LOL
Visionary – A big thanks for the heads up on that article. It is pretty much on target (except maybe the 64 y.o. with a 3 y.o. son (should be grandson?) and most are condos, not condo-hotels, and the completed Jade BEACH, not Ocean from what I understand). I have found SIB to be civil, mixed ages with a lot of families, people from all over not just NY and NJ. It doesn’t really have any club scene. The area has a lot of potential to mow down old retail and put up new retail buildings like at the St. Tropez that is being built but it will take time and is going from a more lazy vacation town to a more upscale destination. So far so good. But there sure is a lot of inventory…
I was told that when a financial institution takes title to a condo they are responsible for only one months condo fees. Can someone confirm this?
[email protected],
6 months
Realtor AJ, do you have any other real estate tips for us? I’m sure that from your experience as a Realtor you’ve learned a lot….
What’s the latest on Onyx on the Bay guys? Is it facing special assessments? Anyone renting there? I need some scoop.
Bently by the Bay South has a 1/1 for $284,900. Doesn’t that look cheap to these downtown units in general?
Great article on the Fontainebleau in Time magazine. Will have to go take a look and maybe stay there for the fun of it. This will probably be a terrible investment for whoever owns it so we should all say thanks to them. Bubbles always produce some amazing things and investing $1B into an existing structure is impressive (assuming that really is what they spent….probably less but makes for a good headline splash). I enjoy good architecture so look forward to seeing this in person. But $1B….they overpaid….
The Fontainebleau is nice & not badly price compared to South Beach but if you’re a vacationer in Miami the location can be tough. There is nothing to walk to & after a week of taking cabs down to South Beach restaurants etc it gets old.
Miami, and Florida in general, is getting some competition in this global economy….
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20081117/ARTICLE/311179998/2055/NEWS?Title=Costa_Rica_lures_new_wave_of_retirees
What do you think about lower end condos in Sunny Isles like 2bd in $150-200k range? Are there a lot of foreclosures there? How much do you think prices will come down in that area?
All these buildings have been blacklisted by bank, mortgage companies and mortgage insurance companies. They aren’t a bargain at these prices. Even if you happen to be an all cash buyer the risks of living in any of these buildings is simply too high. I would ask the condo board president to attend the next meeting, and get minutes from the past board meeting before even considering one of these buildings.
Yikes! Help!
A few weeks back after touring my building at Everglades I posted here that although there were a few minor issues with my aprt interior that I was pleased overall with the building especially awesome gym pool amenities area. People asked me to post any progress reports. I recently received a closing package from the developer and a scheduled closing date of Dec. 30th. My problem is and my question to any others who may have run into this problem that the apart size was always advertised in their literature as 2 bdrm 1200 sq. feet. In none of the condo docs I received was the sq. feet listed anywhere. I thought that the apart looked a little small when I toured, but now for the first time in amended condo docs that came just recently with my closing date they for the first time list the sq. feet for each unit in the building with the standard caveat that if I believe I am harmed or believe any new amended changes are material that I have a 15 day rescision right. Now -the difference in the sq. ft as originally listed at 1200 Sq .feet and the new one is 1062 sq. feet. However they claim on that same page that interior columns or load bearing columns were subtracted from the unit area. My problem is that even though I knew there were two load bearing columns in one room they were hidden in the closet or behind the drywall unexposed. But I cant imagine these columns account for 140 missing Sq feet. Am I wrong? What am I missing here. Any Opinions or advice is appreciated.
Also on my apart tour I was terribly disappointed to find in the living room area on the left side wall from the ceiling down about one foot and out another one foot is what i believe is called a soffet where the hardware for the sprinklers in that area are hidden as opposed to the sprinkler hardware hidden in either the ceiling or behind a wall. Was this their way of doing on the cheap or what explanation could they have for this unsightly design
RT
I can confirm FB spent over a billion.
Clark,
This happened to a friend of mine at Quantum. She raised a STINK before she closed and was able to negoitate the price down. She even got her realtor to reduce his commission to cover some of the price reduction. She also has successfully got it rented even though the view sucks and the square footage is like a hotel room.
Quick put on Channel 7 WSVN. They are about to tour Icon. This should be amusing.
Thanks lala
Keith, I closed on a unit at Onyx on the Bay and haven’t heard anything about any special assessments. There’s still some work being done on the roof terrace but generally it’s done. The hallways are finally being refinished and the views are awesome. Best of all I paid the right price. Are you looking to rent or buy? If it’s to buy then stick to the 02, 03, or 04 lines. There are two high floor units (03 line) for rent that just got finished by a couple of my buddies. Good luck!
You’re welcome, what does your realtor say? That’s who I would speak to first…I would also try somehow to find out if anyone else is cognizant of this, there’s power in numbers, especially people who have purchased within your line.
Sorry for the multiple posts, figure out what you paid per square foot, then deduct the difference in psf for the difference in square footage. So say if you paid 300psf x 140 sf difference=price you want off.
Grant, do you have any info on units for sale at Onyx? Thanks.
Alex – I don’t know since I haven’t been in those buildings but from what I have heard the Plaza of the Americas has one bedrooms under $100K. Granted I drove by them once so can’t speak to them at all but understand that they were built in the 70’s and at peak the one bedrooms were selling for over $200K. Also, probably a lot of rentals there too. I was in the all rental (claim 5 stars) Intercostal Yacht Club or whatever it is called to vote and it looked decent (5 star may be debatable though). A one bedroom on the beach for $200K probably is not going to happen in SIB that I am aware of. Sorry that I couldn’t be more helpful.
Clark, you actually should ask for more than the purchase price per sq ft times the reduced living area. in my opion, there is a big difference between a 1050 sq ft condo and a 1200 sq ft condo. I will not buy a 2B at under 1100 sq ft-just too small. you essentially bought one less small room (den perhaps) than you bargained for. i dont mind when renting, but if you buy for long term living you will want all the space you can get. these back door moves by developers is really unethical. room sizes are known well before the first shovel digs into the ground.
Gables,
Doesn’t hurt to try, but what I quoted will be more realistic…I know my friend tried to remove herself from the contract period based on that discrepancy and was unsuccessful. Go for the sun I guess and settle for the moon.
Clark
If I were you I would cancel, then come back in six months and buy at a 20-30% discount. Fur Real
la la,
i understand what you are saying. still it is bad when deep pockets can do wrong, deliberately, and get away with scamming and fraud. funny how that is illegal yet you will be unable to get a court of law to uphold decency.
Lucas,
any chance you could add a couple of buildings to your listings. 55 merrick in coral gables is new and of interest. also appears that mark on brickell is now missing? can it be returned? thanks for all the hard work. your site is great!
A good article about foreclosures from CA:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20081116-9999-1n16littlelake.html
Somehow, I feel no pity. When one guy extracts $380K over three years “for his jewelry and getaways to Acapulco and the Philippines.” Or “Like Alvarez, several people who pulled equity out of their Little Lake properties say they spent it on business expenses or mortgage payments. Only when prodded, and in one case reminded, did they acknowledge using the money to buy a timeshare, new cars and jewelry. The most common response to the question of how the money was spent was: “To pay bills.” Many could not remember what those bills were for.” Let them fail, let the foreclosures come. All involved were greedy and knew at some level it was too good to be true…no go out and actually help create value in our economy.
I realize that more govt oversight would have helped, but ultimately, a con man is a con man, a cheat is a cheat, and fraud is a fraud. We can’t have the police looking over our shoulders all the time in order to do the right thing. Democracy depends on a moral populace…without it we are doomed to live in a police state. It is just so sad the harm and pain this mess has and will cause over the next few years especially to those that weren’t involved in real estate at all.
I spoke to a guy in the mortgage and real estate investment business today. Nice guy, was fairly up front about things, he predicts a ton more foreclosures are on the way in the Miami condo market. He seemed to have a good grasp of the area and what has been happening. I was waiting for some BS type of stuff but didn’t get too much of that, when I countered him on a few major market matters, he seemed to open up and tell me a lot more about what really has been going on and became a lot more candid. We’re not even half way through yet. It is going to be a tough 2009 for many…and that is really very unfortunate.
RT
Yeap.
Shame, I really want to buy too.
But I can wait.
Is it just me, or do other people remember that pre 1997 you could actually buy a property and make money on it as a rental?
You know, like you really did not have to sell it, you were not buying to sell.
Thanks
DJ, Approximately 75 units have been sold out of 118. The 75 units support the fees, etc (including reserve) for the whole building but it’s meant a slower rollout of the building finishes. I recommend that you see it as the views from the units are spectacular. The o4 line is my favorite but the 03 and 02 lines are excellent as well. For whatever reason some of the sales have not been reported properly. Example: I know the owner of penthouse 2701 (beautiful place) moved in months ago. I think there’s an issue with the unit # as the developer calls it LPH1 and 2701.
Anyway, I feel that it’s a bargain offering that’s been derisked considerably from 6 months ago. For example the halls were always intended to be redone following 70 units being moved into, so this is now happening floor by floor all the way up. The garden terrace should have been done months ago and is only now being started; but I spoke to the builder and he’s received and cleared his advance check. Things are moving along and the building is stable, just very much behind schedule. The valet parking is no longer though.
There are some higher units available for rent which are not presently for sale, but were purchased by investors who I am sure would entertain an offer. I suggest that you speak to Lucas. Good luck!
FYI – nterview in Forbes, Steve Forbes interviews Don Peebles, the successful real estate entrepreneur:
“Forbes: Do you see big differences in regions of the country where you think some are harder hit than others, or some may come back quicker than others in this thing?
Peebles: Yeah, I do. I see we’re actually in two markets that I think are probably the worst two markets for residential, for sure, and that is Las Vegas and South Florida. South Florida was overbuilt. And you take Miami, for example, on the condo side: In downtown Miami alone, almost 50,000 new units were built during this market cycle. And that’s not a center of employment. I think it’s their values have plummeted, 60%, 70%.
Forbes: Wow.
Peebles: And then they have a bigger problem: that many of these condo buildings, the owners who are in foreclosure, or the banks who have them, are not paying condo fees. And so you have this small number of people in the buildings that are having to carry the operation of the whole building. And so the building’s getting a little bit more run-down and has greater financial problems. So buyers are even more reluctant to buy, so that pushes value down.
I think that market doesn’t recover for five to seven years, maybe even a bit longer. Las Vegas: good, strong fundamentals–still 8,000 people a month moving there. It’s producing thousands of new jobs. Clark County is expected to have an increase in population of 1.25 million new residents by the year 2025.
So I see that coming back sooner because they’ve got a very strong, diverse economic base. I see Washington, D.C., is down. The government never gets smaller, so I think Washington’s safe. And I think New York’s safe. New York’s the greatest city in the world. It’s the epicenter of capitalism. And it’ll rebound. And I think New York real estate’s probably the safest real estate in the country.”
DJ,
You are getting advice from Grant!!!. This is the same person who said a year ago,that the best advice is to buy on Onyx on the bay because of the view!!!. This is the same person who said that a group from England is baying 40 units???. Forget about Onyx on the Bay,the building is not finish. A friend of mine is reting for $1250 a month(8th floor),and eventhoug is the cheepest new building in the area,he is looking forward to December 31,2008 (end of contract)since nathing is working properly in the building.
The developers are having problems with the land on Onyx02(two blocks north) because a hard lending copany(Kennedy Funding) is suing them .
Realtor AJ,
Can you give me some stock picks?
I want to buy the opposite position in whatever you suggest so lay it on me.
Now, now, Christopher, you know AJ only “invests” in real estate…. And these things, unlike a dividend paying stock need to be fed each month. But don’t worry, the price appreciation will more than make up for the negative monthly dividend, after all, Suzanne research this and she assured him that he can do this….or was that NAR commercial just marketing? I don’t know, get so confused sometimes on whether I should rent or buy before I’m priced out of the market…..Maybe I should call Suzanne and haver research if for me…
Sounds to me like Mo is back.
Lucas: Thanks for the post and these are definitely showing where the market is going.
A small analysis:
There are 47 listings in MLS for Skyline and the units have been in the market for a long time. I have a tough time believing that with all this new construction being completed, that prices there will hold at $240/sf. That building doesn’t have the best finishes/amenities (I believe it was built as a rental) and it cannot compete with other buildings.
Same thing with Curvoisier Courts… 45 listings with plenty of units having cut their listing prices over 40% with long stays in the market.
Got to see prices get to $200psf here (at least)
Grant/Guillero,
I’m really just doing my research at the moment, but looking to buy sooner rather than later. Mt current lease is up in April, so I would ideally like to find a place by then, but if not, I don’t mind going month-to-month until I find the right place. So far the building I liked the most was The Lexi in North Bay Village, but closing/occupancy rates there have made me take pause. I haven’t heard too much about Onyx, but I figure it’s at least worth looking into. I’m aware that prices will probably fall more in the next 6 months to 1 year, but I’m looking for a premium unit with great views, and I think these units will hold their value and not drop as substantially as the majority of units on the market.
DJ, the problem is that there are literally thousands of these “premium unit with great views”… they are not running out anytime soon.
JL, I agree. My point may be moot when considering that fact. BTW, I just looked up Onyx on the Bay, and the asking prices for 2/2’s are absurd. People are smoking crack these days.
DJ, Do your homework and check out as much as you can. I’m sure that you can make up your mind based on fact and speaking to people in the building. guillermo is a bit too emotional for my tastes and has some issues with Onyx. But fair enough he’s entitled to whatever opinion he can formulate and rashly type out. I’ve always said that I love the view there and I stick by it. And there was a group looking to buy 40 units at $200/ sq ft but the bank rejected that offer and permitted 8 units at a higher price level. That deal happened and I purchased then. I like my unit and I like the building. I do believe that the developer (seperate LLC entity) is having issues with the Onyx 2 land site, so I’m sure that they’re keen to still strike some bargains. Good luck
Grant, thanks buddy, I will look into it. I imagine the views are great! I emailed the developer today, so I’m waiting to hear back. I’m assuming that if they are looking to sell units, their deals will be better than ~$500/sq. foot people are advertising their resales at.
JL,
you said “there are literally thousands of these “premium unit with great views”
What views are you talking about? Sunsets?
Your posts are usually measured. Don’t go about making silly statements dropping numbers that you just pulled out of your hat.
What DJ meant by premium units with great views is he is talking about unobstructed water views. Out of 22,000 new flats built in the greater Downtown area, at the most 5%-10% are the premium units with unobstructed water views. If your idea of a premium unit with view is like the one Lucas featured in the photos of Icon, where you have to come outside the flat, stand on the balcony and turn your head hard left or right to see water or sliver of water, OK then you may be right. There are thousands such.
But my idea of a premium unit with views is a flat, where you have unobstructed water views from every room in the house. If others have lesser standards to define what is a premium unit with view, I will just leave them to fantasize in their own World.
Now is the time to buy. The government is going to bail out the auto companies. Thousands of jobs are going to be created. Miami is going to boom again. I’ve already loaned money from all my relatives and my bookie. I’m going to buy one unit in each of this buildings in this post. This downturn will only last 30 days maximum. Then it’s back to more cranes and more building.
AJ – Someone posted that you are a realtor. Just wondering are you? Or are involved in real estate or a real estate professional other than owning the four homes (2 Miami 2 NYC)? Thanks…
Clark I too purchased at Everglades on the Bay and have a similar situation as you. I bought precon. in ’04 . Square footage was 1186 for my unit. Now the new condo doc. lists it at 1006 sq. ft.! Why should I pay the same price for 180 sq. ft. less? lala & gables They will not lower the price…I tried.
For all that is Everglades supposed to be, The flats looks small (from outside). The balconies are really tiny compared to 50, MB, 900, 1800, Q etc. Has anyone looked at the actual flats? How is the lay out and spaciousness? If 1186sf is truncated to 1006 sf, it will be really tiny. I hope it is a 1 BR and not a 2 BR. You know what happens when you try to make 2 BR’s in 1000 sf, the best example is Opera Tower 2 BR’s with pocket doors and bedspaces – not bedrooms.
AJ It is a 1 BR and den (an encosed small room without windows) with 2 full bathrooms.
Wouldn’t everyone here consider this a “material” adverse change?
Clark/Alan,
Sounds like a pretty good basis to rescind the contract if you ask me.
Alan (#61),
Yes.
Alan,
sorry you could not get the developer to budge. that type of misrepresentation is really bad. 150 to 200 sq ft difference starts to push a 15% change in floor space. i my opinion this is a significant material change to a product. imagine the reaction one of those porn stars in south beach would have if she found out the boobs she paid top dollar for were 15% smaller than she dreamed of!
DJ
I think that Grant and you are rigth,you should consider Onyx on the Bay!!!!!!!!.
Wouldn’t everyone here consider this a “material” adverse change?
–
Yeap.
I’d be running to the lawyers’.
Muir, Naturally I agree with you. The problem is this…If the developer decides not to hand over the deposits & elects to let the lawyers fight it out, then I lose big time. I will lose tens of thousands of dollars because the attorneys work on 33-40% commision. That’s the rub. Even though I did nothing wrong I may end up paying (literally) for the ‘unfairness ‘(I’m being kind) of the developer.
Alan – That is a material change for sure. I would file in court….just pay the hourly fee instead of the % to the lawyer. I would even go so far as saying 5% is a material change. Good luck.
Alan, not necessarily true. A lawyer would ultimately fight to have your contract voided and your deposit returned + punitive damages that would put you in the same position had you never entered into the contract in the first place. If I was taking on the case I would also argue that you would be entitled to the reasonable lost revenue, plus interest on your deposit. I assume you put down at least $50k in 2004 right? Whatever the amount was, it could have been earning money this entire time had you not handed it over to the developer. A court would have to determine what that “reasonable amount” is, but If you won your total damages would hopedully cover at least enough to pay for your attorneys fees and return you to your original status quo.
i’m close to pulling the trigger on a 1042 sq ft rental at 900 biscayne for $2000 month – 7 month lease. i’ve shopped around and think it’s a decent deal – any opinions would be welcome. the thing is that the owners are in venezuela and i’d like to know if there are any liens against the property – how does one check the tax record on the les pendens miami-dade county site? newer buildings are slightly difficult. also, the place comes without built-out closets or window treatments. is it kosher to deduct that from one month’s rent? any advice would be welcome as always. thanks!
AJ – Are you a realtor or real estate professional? Inquiring minds would like to know.
DJ
sorry, that doesn’t fly at all. first, you’re suing in contract so punitives (a tort concept) are out of the question. your attorney’s fees could be fair game depending on the contractual provisions re: fees. as for your reasonable revenue argument…no. assuming there’s a breach of contract, the winning party get the benefit of his expected bargain. the expected bargain flows from the contract. for example, if i agree to paint your house for $100 and then don’t perform requiring you to hire someone else at $110, your expectation damages are $10. here, the contract usually details (in writing)that your expectation was to get your deposit back with no interest or perhaps, minimal interest.
AJ
to answer your question, i haven’t seen the inside of the building yet, but others who i know have, indicated to me that it is similar to met1. to translate, what they mean by that is “not nearly what i expected.”
Gables
even at those reduced rates, the ladies still have some relatively imposing superstructures sitting on their chests.
Jcrimes, you’re right…I wasn’t clear. Punitive damages wouldn’t apply to the breach of contract, but if there was an independent tort as well, then they’d be fair game, ie. fraudulent inducement. Also, my argument about lost revenue may be a shot in the dark, I don’t know. I’d have to look into it more to see if it would be possible. Your analysis of expectation damages sounds right from what I remember though. I suppose it would come down to proving actual fruad in the inducement, which would obviously be more difficult, but would entitle him to greater recovery.
Thats pretty wild that Everglades misleads people for 4 years. Sounds like perfect exit with full refund of deposit, and probably leaves developer on hook to the Realtors for the commissions.
AJ,
This isn’t a trick question. How many Premium units with unobstructed water views do you see in this picture?
http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Biscayne_Wall_20080517.jpg
And how about this one?
http://www.museumparkrealty.net/megatemplate/uploads/photogallery_images/Img4162007_15012.jpg
DJ mentioned looking at Onyx and Lexi, so if you were to look for premium condos (As defined by Onyx/Lexi on up) with prime unobstructed water views going from North Bay Village to Downtown Miami on the Bay and on the Ocean… Oh we are probably talking about at least 10,000 condo units… maybe ALOT more.
I don’t know why, but you seem to want to limit the choices to only the new downtown Miami condos hugging the west side of the Bay with unobstructed water views. They don’t have the nicest views or have the most prestige, but Fine, let’s only count them. Even there if you only take the 4 condos in the Biscayne Wall + 50 Biscayne, and only count the condos with unbostructed water views above floor 10… you are at around 1,000 units right there.
AJ you make up some weird criteria in your head that you give extra value that nobody else will. When you say “But my idea of a premium unit with views is a flat, where you have unobstructed water views from every room in the house.”
This is ridiculous and contradictory to previous statements. Do you realize the 01 line in the Waverly that you love so much overlooking the Bay does not fulfill this odd requirement? Heck, do you realize none of the mansions on Star Island fulfill this requirement either?
An unobstructed view of the wide water in a premium condo building is a dime a dozen down in Miami. Sorry, actually, it’s more like a nickel a dozen now going to pennies on the dozen in the near future.
IT IS HILARIOUS HOW AJ RESPONDS TO EVERY QUESTION EXCEPT THE ONE ABOUT HIM BEING A REALTOR.
ISN’T THAT HILARIOUS GUYS, AMIRITE?
REALTOR AJ IN THREE YEARS WHEN HE BECOMES INSOLVENT:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM
shwin /Nov 18, 2008 at 10:32 pm Vote:
i’m close to pulling the trigger on a 1042 sq ft rental at 900 biscayne for $2000 month – 7 month lease. i’ve shopped around and think it’s a decent deal – any opinions would be welcome. the thing is that the owners are in venezuela and i’d like to know if there are any liens against the property – how does one check the tax record on the les pendens miami-dade county site?
–
shwin,
Go to property appraiser’s office http://www.miamidade.gov/PA/ to get all parties listed as owners.
Then go to records search
Cross check names against NODs Notice of Defaults
–
I’ve done this for every rental I’ve lived in, in every county.
Good luck.
With continue asset deflation in real dollars terms and debt priced in nominal dollars, those that were leveraged in almost any asset class are going to continue to take a severe beating and many will be pushed over edge. Even those that took what looked like modest debt positions are getting burned. Only prudent, frugal people are safe. The continued asset deflation is going to be brutal and housing is just one area of the carnage.
Muir – What do you think of silver? At least it is also consumed unlike gold.
Schwin, I’m renewing my lease in July 09 and I’ll get your unit for $1400 or less.
Hey guys, why don’t you go down to the auto shop and ask the mechanic if your car needs a new air filter or tires. I wonder what he’ll say….business sure is slow for mechanics right now….of course I doubt profit would motivate a mechanic. They usually look out for your best interest…
RT,
Well, you nailed it. It’s bulky.
Whatever you buy take physical delivery, no ETFs or foreign bullion vault.
I do not consider PMs as “investments” it’s sort of an insurance policy for an ultimate SHTF scenario.
With that said, it’s interesting to think in terms of other than dollars.
Questions like, what’s the DOW average cost measured in gold ounces? That type of thinking leads to some unexpected realizations, e.g. gold has hit new highs when measured in foreign currencies.
Gold actually does have industrial uses.
–
I’ve thought a lot about this stuff.
If you come to the conclusion that this will end up with strong inflation, buy TIPs.
If you come to the conclusion that hyper-inflation is around the corner, buy debt.
(You will be paying a future obligation with very cheap dollars. Some who lived through it have told me that in Argentina, debt was the way to go, a great scam was to delay payment of any debt that had a fixed price, even restaurant bills.)
–
For me, the PMs are like my passport (also kept in a safety deposit box)
–
RT,
There’s really no precedent for the times we live in, it really could go so many different ways, a lot of them not good.
It goes almost goes without saying, but of course, a condo is not a hedge against anything.
However, a house with a fixed rate in a hyper-inflationary scenario may work out, I mean may work out. Who knows. But it does play, fixed future payments payed with an ever increasing worthless currency.
–
I read your first paragraph very carefully twice and then a third time.
You are correct, just realize that this too could change.
If the ITulip guy is right, then you have a window of 6-18 months before SHTF time.
Then again, hyperinflation may not materialize.
Still trying to get a feel for guys thoughts on the 1/1 for $284,900 at Bently Bay on South Beach.
Muir – Was typing fast, yes gold is consumed in industrial uses but not nearly to the extent that silver is put to uses other than as a paper weight. PM’s aren’t income producing but may be better than US $ sometime in the future. Inflation will be a risk, just not now, and hyper inflation probably not. I was against PM’s because of general commodity speculation and gold because of the fear…silver doesn’t attract the wackos and may be priced more reasonably…that is, not subject to a huge speculative tumble. I agree, take physical PM’s, just don’t tell anyone! 🙂 I always look at what the downside risk is to make sure I have an exit strategy, hence silver looked to be more favorable than gold. I personally believe there isn’t enough fear out there…there should be more, or people are just in denial? That will change as unemployment rises.
900 guy – I agree for July 09, but I’d like to sign the lease this month. what’s ure e-mail address? i’d like to ask you a few questions about the place. thanks – mine’s [email protected]
McDollar Value Menu:
Stocks:
Ford
Gm
Fannie
Freddie
Citi (getting there)
Homes:
Cleveland
Detroit
–
(not mine, I copied it)
“There is no wonder the dollar will weaken,” said Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan’s former top currency official and now a professor at Waseda University. “The dollar now looks strong for a technical reason. The money the US financial firms had invested in the world is being repatriated into the homeland, causing dollar-buying. But once this conversion into the dollars is done, the currency will head south,” Sakakibara said at a forum in Tokyo on Sunday.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JK19Dh01.html
JL,
I took the Biscayne wall in to consideration. That is why I am saying most desired units could be as high as 10% of the total flats built which works out to about 2000 units. If not for the 4 Biscayne wall buildings, 50 Biscayne and 1800 I would have said no more than 5% are such units with views. All other buildings have either none or 1 or 2 lines max with such unobstructed water views.
But then to each his own. If you are ecstatic to look at the vast wasteland to the West or even look into another person bedroom and pat yourself in the back for having bought at $250/sf from an original $600 in 2006 or a reduced $400 in 2008 and feel great that you have a premium unit with a “View”, who is there to question that? Enjoy.
Alan,
Of all the silly excuses people are quoting to get out of their contracts, this is the most solid reason I have seen so far. I don’t see why a court will not be sympathetic to this very valid reason.
swhin,
I cannot predict where the market will be headed in July 09. But from every buzz big and small around the World, the common conclusion is that the 14 month recession (the 3rd longest since the 16 month recessions of 70’s and the 80’s) that started here in April 08 will come to an end in June ’09.
But then the jobs and the economy are usually 6 months behind and they will be in full bloom not until the end of the year.
So by mid next year, while the recession has ended, and jobs will start being created slowly, Consumer confidence will begin to develop once again. I would have no idea what it will do to rents but the 1 BR/2 bath that you are planning to rent is definitely not going to be for $1400 as that guy suggested.
Alternately, you can wait until Christmas is over and then sign a lease for somewhat less than $2000. I expect the Jan/Feb/Mar to be somewhat the worst recession months of all. But if you need a place to live now, you need a place to live.
AJ – You are being too optimistic. Recession through 2009, perhaps…just perhaps….jobs start a modest uptick in the 2Q of 2010, but I doubt it. 8% unemployment is certain, 10% probable except perhaps for fed govt deficit spending created jobs. A Dow of 5,000 is not out of the question, 7,500 is around the corner and a probable low to test….will it hold? Asset deflation in real dollar terms will continue and those with nominal dollar debt will continue to get burned. Money funds won’t even cover inflation and expenses let alone taxes. We are about to enter into a dreaded liquidity trap. These continued downturns in asset prices will cause retail sales to continue to plummet as consumers are shopped out and don’t really need new things and definitely can drive their existing cars another year or two. The Big Three auto makers will be lucky to be the Big Two….they had decades to turn things around but continued to be years behind the curve and this time it is too little too late. Home prices will continue to decline by near double digits on national average for two more years despite low mortgage rates. Liquidity trap….
By the way AJ, are you a realtor…come on. I think we need to know if you are a real estate professional or not.
Shwin,
You have to do a 7 month lease only? That makes things difficult. Otherwise, I’d advise you to offer $1,700 to all the 900 listings asking $2,300 or less. You’d get somebody to deal if it’s on a a 1 yr. lease and you’re ready to move soon.
Also, as you noted, a lot of new condo units just have flooring but no closets or window treatments.
If you’re only going to be in it for 7 months, you’re better off renting something else that has those issues taken care of.
If you can wait, when Everglades start closing, that’s going to flood the rental market and really depress rental prices further in that area imo.
I believe all the units are carpeted so anybody who closes can take it straight to rental without having to install flooring and also, my guess is that they are going to do a 50 Biscayne thing where they turn the building into a quasi-rental.
Renter Tom or anyone else…
I have been looking on MLS at beachfront properties from North Miami Beach to Sunny Isles as I have a friend who is interested in buying a unit in that area for himself to hold for 5-7 years.
I have been focusing my attention on MEI, BATH CLUB, TRUMP TOWERS, and TURNBERRY OCEAN COLONY.
Here is my short analysis:
MEI – 16 Listings (12% of bldg)- AVG PRICE – $835/SF
BATH CLUB – 23 listings (22%) -$807/SF
TURNBERRY – 53 listings (21%) -$769/SF (Large units, cheapest is $1.4 M)
TRUMP TOWERS – 52 listings (10%) -$571/SF (I don’t think #3 has started closings and I bet #2 is not done)
Now… the question… do we really think these prices will hold up?
I can’t see all these units selling in this market! What is the bottom? $300psf for TRUMP and $500 for others?
JL…….After what they did (I’m losing at least 180 sq. ft. from what my original brochure stated) what percent will actually close? If not a large percent close then there will be no flood of rentals (unless the developer rents units out). Bear in mind I am not alone in having been shorted of sq. footage at Everglades. Also we were given a choice of whether to take the carpeting or not; if not, a credit was issued. I was told that many did not elect carpeting.
AJ,
After your rosy predictions for an 18 month recession, which defies all logic, as a depression is not out of the question, I can only conclude that yes, you are a Realtor.
shwin /Nov 18, 2008 at 10:32 pm Vote:
i’m close to pulling the trigger on a 1042 sq ft rental at 900 biscayne for $2000 month – 7 month lease. i’ve shopped around and think it’s a decent deal – any opinions would be welcome. the thing is that the owners are in venezuela and i’d like to know if there are any liens against the property – how does one check the tax record on the les pendens miami-dade county site?
–
shwin,
Go to property appraiser’s office miamidade.gov/PA/ to get all parties listed as owners.
Then go to records search miami-dadeclerk.com/PUBLIC-RECORDS/default.asp
Cross check names against NODs Notice of Defaults
–
I’ve done this for every rental I’ve lived in, in every county.
Good luck.
Took out the www to see if we could get around “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”
Alan, it doesn’t seem to me that Evergaldes will do well closing-wise. Not that anything is doing well closing-wise. However, I think Everglades is particularly vulnerable in that the building was not sized/priced for the high end. Everglades units are not spacious (even before the developer shortchanging the square footage).
So basically, the market this buiding is targeted for is a 2nd home for the near-rich and that probably is the class of people that are gettingspanked the most in this economy… People that are not rich, but rich enough to get a tax hike form “Yes We Can” and could see their job get cut in a flash in this economy.
The consumer debtor lifestyle, that is living based on an accumulation of debt and paying it off later from projected future income is coming to an end rather abruptly. It has been interesting and surprising to watch. When 19 year olds – with essentially zero income and assets – are handed tens of thousands of dollars in student loans and thousands in credit card limits things really get crazy. This thing should have ended when there were not enough credit worthy borrowers out there but we went past the limits in many areas by pushing debt into subprime territory on a very large scale. The easy credit led to asset appreciation beyond the norm which led to an even greater need for credit which was funded through complex securities that did not reduce the risk one bit…they erroneously applied the concept of diversification.
Asset prices will return to the historic norms, after a brief over correction on the downside, and credit standards will return to that set for normal economic times and not set at business mania times. You should always run your finances like it is almost the worst of times so that you can benefit the most during the good times and make it through the bad.
I would be surprised if retail sales this holiday season are not off by at least 5%.
Cash only buyers may be all that are left for these Miami condos sometime in the first half of 2009. It is getting uglier all the time.
AJ – ARE YOU A REALTOR? ARE YOU A REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONAL? WHAT IS IT THAT YOU ACTUALLY DO FOR A LIVING???
RT,
I think you are optimistic on the holiday retail sales. I think they will be way down-over 10%. Many people have told me they will not buy nearly what they have in the past. Most of my family have decided to buy very little for the holidays. we will donate to others, drink, eat and be merry-but we are avoiding wasteful spending this time around. and i do not think we will be alone on this.
5% down is a conservative number but it is instead of an increase. I do agree, the anecdote stuff I have heard too is that there really isn’t any reason to spend money on more stuff and people re-thought what they really need. It could be brutal, very brutal but too early to tell. The post holidays sales will be going out of business for many retailers.
I just had someone offer to sell me one of their units at $400/s.f. – luxury building, best floor plan, on the beach with direct ocean view, with huge balcony, private elevator entrance, etc. Unit is decorator ready. He’d be taking a loss on it ($200K)…he was an early pre-construction buyer and he paid on the lower end since he bought more than one. At $300 I don’t think I could pass it up since it really is a great floorplan, high end appliances, etc. it is just a bit large though…
Listen here…to those from Everglades…I walked away from my condo deposit @ MB.
Bottom line the unit was smaller than I expected. It actually was so small It was more like a 1 Bd w/ Den vs a 2/2 I thought I was getting. Sure i could have sued an all but litigation woul dhave taken forever no gurantees and then you land up paying atootrny’s fees. So if you want to drag the pain go ahead or just be a man a cut your losses. Move on live and learn. Best bet if you dn’t want to cut your losses then negotiate the price downward. For me I didn’t even want it even at a cheaper price cause if it’ s to me to live in why would i what somehting that was so small. I rather then move onto something I woul dwant. LEsson here is never buy pre-constuction nless you are sure you’ll get what you saw in the plan. I will never buy pre-const again because of this unless they say its 3000sq ft so then when they give me 2500sq ft I would atleas think it still is big enough to justify to close.
Short changing the square footage like that is so darn lame. I hope this goes back and bites the developers in the Butt forever. It’s hard to shake a reputation of being lame nowadays with the Internet and archiving.
Let it be noted that in 2008, CABI developers short-changed Sq. Footage from their Pre-Construction advertising on Everglades on The Bay condominium in Miami.
This will be archived forever. Shape up developers or you won’t have much of a business to come back to after the Crash.
“Investors have lost billions of dollars on Wall Street in the last two months,” said Peter Zalewski, a principal with Condo Vultures® LLC. “These losses are having a dramatic impact on real estate owners – whether they are individuals, investors, developers or lenders – who apparently cannot or will not continue to hold out for higher prices. We are increasingly hearing the word capitulation used in the South Florida lexicon.”
— Gee, I think someone, could it have been me? why yes it was, kept posting that the 4th quarter would be the time of capitulation….just thought I’d point it out.
Just saw on the news a survey that people in Florida were reporting that their holiday spending would be down 38% compared to last year. Wow. That about mirrors home price declines too…. This could get really really ugly.
JL……..Your indignance is much appreciated. If everyone spoke up regarding the unfairness of short changing sq. footage perhaps the developers would conduct themselves differently. Maybe it should be a law that if a developer’s final product is smaller than he advertised then he should be required to deliver the condo unit at the same price per sq. foot that the buyer originally purchased at. Doesn’t everyone think this would be reasonable? Makes me think-what if the condo unit is larger than advertised? I’m half kidding though, becauase how frequently does that truly happen?
Got off the phone with the parents….they are retired, not in Florida. Anyway, they got 100% out of stocks earlier this year and boy are they happy they did. They golf with a bunch of different people and many had too much in the market for their age and it is all the old people talk about…the loss of 40%…this is brutal and has the old people very worried, scared even. This psychology is not going to be helpful to get to a recovery. No way are they going to put money into stock now….and a third home, forget about it. These old people are scared. Thankfully my parents weren’t exposed and are pretty prudent people. The rest of the old people … ouch. Brutal. The real pain is coming….
Renter Tom
I would like your opinion on my post #93 as you seem to be the SIB expert
JL, dont worry bout CABI short changing many people in the future. the building boom is over for decades to came and the owner died i think early this year.
Raffi………Actually Cabi has another large project they are marketing called Capital on Brickell. Additionally, there are 3 brothers; one of them did indeed die.
Hugo P – The bottom in pricing for those buildings is lower than it is now….could end up being much much lower. As this thing unfolds, it would appear that deeper price declines are in the cards. There are literally no signs of a bottom given the fact that many condo buildings are cash only…..who will give a mortgage? I undertand that you can get a mortgage for a single family home, but condos are another story….difficult. I also have heard, can’t confirm, that Trump Tower III will be all rentals or a hotel and the developer will concentrate on closing out I and II. How much is your friend looking to spend and is he a cash buyer? There is no rush to buy but kicking the tires now will make him a more informed buyer later. If he thinks he can just fly down one day and pick one out and that it’ll be a good investment, he probably won’t be putting his money to good use.
You know it is bad when you go to the Dollar Store and they’re selling shares of GM, Ford, and Chrysler in aisle 3.
i love when zalewski uses big words. almost gives the appearance that he knows what he’s talking about. wonder how his supposed representation of all these supposed vulture funds is playing out…
RT,
The deal your friend offered you: are you willing to share details (bldg, line)? I have a friend (all cash) who has been seriously looking at ocean-front (mostly S. of Haulover), so OBH down to about Akoya, but is not in a rush; any empirical data on true asking prices is welcome, as the MLS/FSBO prices are still elevated (as you have eloquently pointed out over the past few months). Thanks.
FK
FK – The unit is not listed on the mls or with any realtor. I may be interested in it, I would give him cash today at $300/s.f. but at $400/s.f. I don’t know yet, esp since it is still decorator ready and is over 2,500 s.f. 3 BR with 3.5 bath…. a tad large for me, although I love the floorplan. There are a number of them in the building listed and something like 40% of the building is for sale…maybe some will go into foreclosure. Since I am still chewing on it I won’t say yet which unit or building. But is is new in the last 2 years. Taxes and dues are probably $4K/month. If the asset was appreciating, I’d buy it at $400/s.f., but they are not and 2009 will be ugly as I hear more people giving up and willing to take a loss…..I hear now that many just want their mortgage paid off….no more appreciation, bye bye deposit, just pay off my mortgage……
If Fed Funds rate goes to -0- next year, then more will get caught in the liquidity trap.
Anyone have an idea how much 24″x24″ mid grade marble tile costs installed with sound underlayment, etc? I’m sure prices have really come down but since I have never done that I have no clue what to expect for pricing to finishing out a unit (always costs more than one expects I’m sure….just like all development and construction projects do).
RT
although you won’t divulge, i’m guessing ocean 4 (or is it oceania IV)?
jcrimes…..nope. It is directly on the beach. Great unit, just too large to pull the trigger, price per s.f. still needs to come down I think in this market. I could rent a similar unit for 1/3-1/2 depending on the different owners. I could rent one today for 1/3. That’s the killer really, I could rent…..the deals are just too good.
Alan, as far as i know Capital is on hold for the moment.
Renter Tom,
Tile Installed… about $10-$15/psf.
$400/sqft is great for the type of unit you are describing. I have yet to see prices at this level for similar unit in a new building as you described.
Alan,
Capital on Brickell is on hold.
AJ, Muir, JL –
Thanks for the advice. I’ll be sure to enlist your guidance in the future. Hopefully I’ll be ready to buy a place soon. They keep telling me i’m going to bank some serious $$$ after all this training. I guess we’ll see.
boatdrinks,
shwin
“Anyone have an idea how much 24″x24″ mid grade marble tile costs installed with sound underlayment, etc? I’m sure prices have really come down but since I have never done that I have no clue what to expect for pricing to finishing out a unit (always costs more than one expects I’m sure….just like all development and construction projects do).’
For my 900 unit, soundproofing was $3.35 per foot (material and labor), labor for installing 24 x 24 stone is $5.50 per ft. Stone ranges from about $8.00 on up (24 x 24) and expect to pay about $3.50 per foot for balcony waterproofing . When getting a quote, they will need add about 7% more (stone) for watse.
I have found no indication that prices are heading south. Be careful on the grade of marble you choose…you can end up paying more for a lower grade. It pays to shop.
RT,
I have a great tile company you could use that has great prices and quality stuff. They’re pretty big and have their own factories in Middle East. (Allowing them to have better prices) If you’re interested just ask Lucas for my email
Thanks for the info on marble tile. I haven’t bought anything yet…and probably will wait….but needed an idea on what flooring would cost for these designer ready units.
JoelL – The problem with $400/s.f. is the unit needs to be finished…and the condo fees could go up at lot more. At $2k/month for condo fees that adds up esp. they increase. At a 6% cost of capital these units are running $12K/month with condo fees and taxes. I can rent for $4K. At $300/s.f. it would be worth the risk….at $400/s.f. with all the other things I could do with the money….I don’t think I would get that much enjoyment out of the place. The condo fees are about $9.50/s.f. per year….I guess you gotta pay for the 24 hour valets…..
Renter Tom,
There is no question that for these luxury buildings renting is the way to go for now.
FYI… back in 1998-99 when one of the first Luxury High-rise oceanfront buildings in Sunny Isles was being sold Direct-oceanfront units were sold for around $300/sqft and non-oceanfront units sold for around $200/sqft. This is, of course, for the prime units, at least 3 bedrooms and 3 baths with a great floorplan, which is what you had mentioned. It would be interesting to see what happens if we return to these levels. What do you think?
I’m not Tom but SP just closed 1998 so why not?
Now that the DOW is well into the 7000’s I think the 6’a aren’t that far away. I have also been looking at Ft. Lauderdale as a possibility and it doesn’t appear to be much better off than Miami. Now if only South Padre would drop 40-50% like S. Florida it would make my search much easier.
AJ please tell us………..are you a realtor????? I think you owe it to us …to tell everybody the TRUTH!!!!!
JoeL – Not sure where this stuff is going to land, but people are losing a lot of wealth. My guess would be that a lot of people just stop treading water and drown. They just want off this crazy train steaming downhill. I certainly do now want to be a knife catcher and I shouldn’t jump in just because a few knife catchers have already….
Anyone know if there are banks writing mortgages for beach front condos in this area and if so what % down is needed? I am trying to gage the level of able buyers out there. If were at 50% down scenarios, that is near cash buyers only time.
RT
anything new for waterfront in sunny isles (i presume that’s where you’re angling) and you’re realistically looking at 30/35% down. it’s partly a function of the underlying collateral risk; partly a function of the underlying financial health of the lending institution. for some more established buildings south on collins, i’ve seen as low as 20% but i think that’s an outlier.
Thanks jcrimes….30-35% down isn’t bad…..the higher it gets the lower prices will be. The wealth destruction that is going on is shocking. I expected things to get bad, but not this bad so quickly.
We’re not even in the 7th inning of a double header.
Mucho pain.
RT:
My friend had a potential buyer for one of her two (PH) at Canyon Ranch just last week; fell through b/c: 1) the owner was foreign; 2) only was going to put 50% down. FWIW: CR had a Lehman Bros Mezz. or construction (not sure which — Jcrimes, help me out here?) financing, so perhaps that was the bigger factor.
The other friend I mentioned (who was looking for beachfront) inquired about financing, but the restrictions were so tight — essentially he was told, “it depends on which building, and unit” that he is pretty much shopping with cash in hand. If you do give up on your option, I’d love to pass the information to him (fairkim@gmail). Thanks.
Renter Tom,
In a solid building, with solvent Assocation and low percentage of foreclosures and renters you can get the deal done with 20% down, if it’s your primary residence. This will more than likely be a building that has been around for at least 2-3 years. A quick call to the Association and they should be able to answer these questions.
The deal at the onyx for bulk has fallen thru, it was not from England, price was $220 a sq.ft. and would ned another $13 per sq.ft. to finish so $232 final price, not such a great deal for a building not finished and not in a great area. The arti8cle from Forbes, where are the tens of thousands of units this guy is talking about, 21 to 22 thousand units and not all of them in the best of areas. I was in 1800 Biscayne, come out of the front dorr and tens yards the wrong way you are in a real bad area.
Does anybody have any idea of what the status is of Trump Tower III in SIB? Would appreciate any updates. Are people closing on the property? Are deposits being refunded? Thanks.
Does anybody know the status of Trump Tower III in SIB? Are people closing? Are they refunding any of the deposits? Tower II only had a 5.9% closing rate.
Cindy – I had heard that TTIII would be all rentals/hotel like until the market turns…so I suppose that means it will be a hotel for at least 5 years! They are moving fairly quickly finishing up the building. Just looked, from the outside, it today when on the beach. The common areas facing the beach are being completed and I’d guess in 1 month those areas will be done…maybe even in 2 weeks. The Trump Towers really are a massive project when you think about it….around $1B in condo retail prices. I am pretty sure there are no closings yet in TTIII.
Thanks Renter Tom. What would that mean though to buyers whose deposits are still with the developer? Would they return if they decided to convert TTIII into purely rental building? Thanks!
Cindy – I would think the developer would have to return deposits if they change the building going forward….so don’t abandon your deposit just yet! Good luck.