Miami & Miami Beach Condo Trends – October 2008
October 22, 2008
by: Lucas Lechuga
Below, you will find the Miami-Dade County condo inventory and months of supply figures for October 2008. The first box to the left reveals the total number of condos that are currently available for sale on the MLS throughout Miami-Dade County. The second box discloses the total number of closed sales that occurred in the month of September 2008. The third and fourth boxes show the months and years of condo supply in Miami-Dade County. As you can see, the figures are also subdivided into various price ranges to reveal which part of the condo market has been most affected. The % change box will show you how the inventory levels have changed since my last update in May 2008.
The overall supply of condos listed in the MLS in Miami-Dade County has dropped from 25,461 to 24,788 since May 2008. On the flip side, the number of closed sales in the previous month has gone up from 474 to 527 creating a 12.51 percent drop in the years of inventory in Miami-Dade County since the last update. It’s once again surprising that inventory levels have dropped despite the thousands of new condos that have been completed and delivered in 2008.
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami (not other areas of Dade County such as Miami Beach, Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach, etc.):
The supply of condos in the MLS in Miami has dropped from 10,281 to 9,903 since May 2008. The number of closed sales in the previous month has gone up from 161 to 192 creating a 19.21 percent drop in years of inventory in Miami since the last update. As you can see, a large portion of these closed sales occurred in the $0-$249,999 price range. The inventory levels of the $500,000+ categories, however, have increased.
The following statistics encompass only those condos located throughout Miami Beach:
The supply of condos in the MLS in Miami Beach has dropped from 4,109 to 3,949 since May 2008. However, the number of closed sales in the previous month has also dropped from 113 to 98 creating a 10.82 percent increase in years of inventory for condos in Miami Beach since the last update. In fact, with the exception of the $500,000-$999,999 price range, the years of inventory has risen for each category.
SO you use one month’s worth of statistics (very volatile) to extrapolate the months of supply. Even a novice statistician can tell you that you should use the last 3, 6, or even 9 months averaged out at the very least to normalize the number.
this is good and interesting!
“It’s once again surprising that inventory levels have dropped despite the thousands of new condos that have been completed and delivered in 2008.”
I believe the term is “ghost inventory”. ALL those UNITS sitting in the shadows that have not closed.
Regarding the inventory lowering.. Some of the 4000 to 5000 units being foreclosed monthly in Dade county possibly were listed for sale prior to those foreclosure judgements.
“It’s once again surprising that inventory levels have dropped despite the thousands of new condos that have been completed and delivered in 2008.”
It’s due to people taking condos off the sales market or not putting them on the sales market and rather shifting the units over to the rental market hoping to ride it out.
I’m sure a lot of people want to sell but are too far under water to afford to sell. The only option for them is to rent it and hope for a miracle soon or just let it foreclose when they run out of time.
If you could get data on condos entering the rental market, I get a feeling that’s where you’re going to find most of the missing inventory parked.
A certain bearish blogger has posted a very interesting case shiller graph which shows how far Miami has to crash before this thing is over.
Am I correct in assuming that pre-construction unit sales are not included in the MLS numbers? That is, the inventory for sale by developers is not or not fully listed on the MLS? I agree with Mr. Waverly’s post that there is a shadow inventory out there so these numbers are “conservative”.
I’d be curious to know where that graph is Mark Not Z…could you post the link? Thanks.
Linking to that site is banned. You have commented on the site before.
I can’t believe that in this day and age that anyone would rely on the realtor controlled MLS numbers, the shadow inventory alone doubles the number of vacant Condo’s for sale in Miami.
The Smart Money just purchased 176 Condo’s in Tampa at an average price of $125.00 per square foot and we predict that this magic number will become common place in Miami by early 2009.
The Smart Money
Lucas, thanks for cranking the numbers. I think we were getting a little spoiled with your previous posting that provided more number crunching. Of course, I think we would all love to see the numbers for a longer period of time if/when you get a chance.
As for “how low will it go” link, I am not sure which web site was banned from this site, but MSNBC had an article that touches on this: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/nearly-1-in-6-homeowners-underwater.aspx. According to that article prices need to fall about 40% from their current levels. Of course, with the all the inventory (MLS plus shadow inventory) I would think that prices might dip further than 40%?
As for the shadow invetory, I also remember seeing an article on MSNBC (couldn’t find the link at this moment) that said in Miami there is just as many homes in foreclosure (and not listed on MLS) as there are on MLS. I am not sure how the people who have taken their home off the market and are renting it out affects that number?
Jason Nadrowski – If that is the case, then there are 8-10 years of supply and counting….
Mark (Not Zilbert) /Oct 22, 2008 at 11:23 pm Vote:
A certain bearish blogger has posted a very interesting case shiller graph which shows how far Miami has to crash before this thing is over.
–
http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=1940
the site I speak of has a much more detailed graph
mark, Why do you keep hinting at this graph and how great it is and then you cant tell us how to look at it?
WHen you leave a comment mark you can copy the url and paste it onto the part where it says website, that way you can click on your name when you post and it would take you to that link….
The site has the words miami then condo and then forum. It’s a dot com. Mentioning the blog seems to be banned as I have tried it before. This post will probably be deleted by the censors.
I am starting a new tracking.
I picked one representative building each in Pace Park/OMNI, Park West and Downtown.
I ignored the 1 BR (entry level), 3 BR (established level) and only tracked the asking prices of all the 2/2’s with direct and unobstructed bayviews. I also ignored the extreme high and low asking prices and rounded off to the nearest round figure.
This is what I found:
1.
Location: Pace Park/OMNI
Building: 1800 Club
2/2 Bayview Lines: 03, 05, 07, 09
Lowest-Highest asking prices/SF: $415-$460
Average asking price/SF: $440
2.
Location: Park West
Building: Marina Blue
2/2 Bayview Lines: 04, 05, 08, 09
Lowest-Highest asking prices/SF: $400-$590
Average asking price/SF: $495
3.
Location: Downtown
Building: 50 Biscayne
2/2 Bayview Lines: 04, 06, 08
Lowest-Highest asking prices/SF: $445-$550
Average asking price/SF: $500
I believe the above 3 are very representative of the new construction and the areas they are located in and the level of ‘Luxury’. I also strongly believe that no matter what happens in the housing market or the economy in general, these flats in these buildings and similar product in other buildings will hold their value. All kinds of numbers are being thrown regarding the eventual bottoming of per SF price of Miami Condos to as low as $150/sf. Maybe true with some buildings and locations and lines but not with these. I also would like to know the objective opinion of the readers as to the eventual bottoming price of the above discussed lines per SF. I am trying to find what you think it will settle down to, NOT what you wish it will settle down to. Also remember that only one in 15 or 20 new flats are with unobstructed direct bayviews. So do not generalise or consider that all flats are created equal.
I will track these periodically. Meanwhile could any realtor or anyone with access to records post the final closing sale price of any of these flats in the past couple of months or the last recorded sale please? Final closing price is the only real indicator and not the asking price.
Once again, here is the list of the lines to look up:
1. 1800 Club: Lines 03,05,07,09
2. Marina Blue: Lines 04,05,08,09
3. 50 Biscayne: Lines 04,06,08
hells yeah! AJ bought in Plaza at 410/sf. I looked up the records and the only person with those initials bought at that price. What do those units run for now? 400? 380? I’m buying at 125 just like the ACE. The man knows what he’s talking about.
Direct bay views —-> AJ’s ORGASM
Interested = Mark = Mark (Not Zilbert) = Mark to Market = Ace = Mo…………
This guy is such a dead give away. The juvenile language is the same in all posts no matter what handle this guy is using today. Why don’t you go and wallow among the filth in the other blog that you mentioned. You belong there.
The way you constantly monitor this site and respond, I strongly believe you may have some self serving interest in that blog that you always want to mention. I do not want to believe you own that site as you see too stupid to own anything.
Mark /Oct 23, 2008 at 11:17 am
The site has the words miami then condo and then forum. It’s a dot com….
–
Looked at the site.
Nothing there that hasn’t been posted here.
Granted that graph is better.
–
AJ
“Interested = Mark = Mark (Not Zilbert) = ….”
Does that include “Muir?”
If so, I’ve got a “Sybil” problem and have to check myself in. 🙂
Truly AJ, a lot of people see $125 /sq feet easily. (with no GD2)
–
I am Mark not Zilbert (Isn’t that obvious?). I’m not trying to hide my identity. The site I mention, I found because it has a link at eyeonmiami.com. I have no idea who interested or the ace are. I do like the ace though. Hey AJ, is it true you bought at $410/sf? Thats expensive. Hope you have a direct bay view.
Another interesting find.
The average prices in the above 3 buildings and the sampled lines are approximately 20-22 times the annual rent. It is ofcourse high. The average in the past 20 years was 15 times the annual rent. If we use the the past 20 years average as the comps, and assume that prices will eventually settle from 22 times to 15 times the annual rent, I calculated that the above lines in the buildings I mentioned may bottom out at $325/sf, if a prolonged recession continues until end of 09. If the economy picks up before that (eg. economic recovery resumes in Spring 09 instead of Winter 09), it will not reach that level. JL, Jcrimes, thoughts?
Muir,
You have posted some intelligent and educated posts. I never compared you to to those names. You have posted a lot of bearish posts like those other names I mentioned but you never insulted anyone, called them names, used filthy language to describe others etc. So do not degrade yourself. You are not in the same level as those unless you want to be. I have not mentioned Renter Tom’s name even though he is the biggest housing bear here because he has not personally attacked anyone or called them names or abuses. So you do not get on the list of names just for being a housing bear, you get on the nasty list for being a deranged, delusional, foul mouth.
AJ said: “I also strongly believe that no matter what happens in the housing market or the economy in general, these flats in these buildings and similar product in other buildings will hold their value.”
Come on. AJ, what is your basis to “strongly believe” and “will hold their value”? That is a fantasy post with no basis in reality even if you cherry pick units to watch. The Wall Street Journal just had an article where it shows a table with Miami having a 26.9% price drop since peak, with 44.6% of purchasers in the last 5 years now underwater on what they owe on their purchase, and a 37.7% FURTHER price DROP needed to restore to historical affordability (to return to average ratio of home price to average income for 1985-2000). So, according to the WSJ, a $100,000 bought at the peak is NOW $73,100 (26.9% drop from peak) and will be $45,541 (an additional 37.7% drop from today). That means we are ALMOST midway through the price drops (so far a drop of $26,900 and $27.589 more to drop for a total of 54.46% drop from peak). Do the math, (100)x(1.0-0.269)x(1.0-37.7).
The WSJ may be a bit optimistic since incomes may be falling……..
If you do not know what I am talking about or if you have a very short memory, go back, way back and read the posts of some of the handles I mentioned. They have talked abusively to people invoking, excreta, genetalia and all kinds of filth. Because of them, many ladies have left the blog including but not limited to Lala, Lara, Candela etc.
That guy (or guys) is the real bastard trying to harm this blog.
Whew. I’m not on the “naughty list”…. now I can sleep better in my rented beachfront condo for half price…. LOL 🙂
Tom,
See my post #23. I did say that they will decline in the event of a severe recession. From a high $500 (asking), I said it can go to as low as $325 (my floor). So I am not being unnessessarily being optimistic. That is why I asked others what they will think of the floor for these “Cherry Picked” premium units.
AJ – They will decline in a mild recession and 20%+ decline in a severe recession. Sell your Florida properties and hold onto the NY ones. Take the meager gain or loss and get out of these condos in Miami they will bled you like leaches on a quadriplegic. The WSJ has NY metro area down 8.2% from peak, with 14.% in last 5 years underwater, and 18.2% more of a drop to get to the historic affordability number. Incomes are going to rise to bump this up anytime soon, so the NY properties I’d probably take the gain and get out if you don’t live in them and only maybe keep just 1 NY property out of the 4. Don’t be delusional and don’t be a pig on gains… Just my wisedom from how I see this market going. I watch a bit of the Chicago market and even the prime areas are showing some distress. It will hit everything….
The macro economic factors that drive housing prices, housing purchases, housing construction, housing loans, etc. almost without exception point to lower prices over the next 12 months. There are no numbers or trends out there that would convince me otherwise. If I lived in a place that I like, didn’t buy in the last 5 years, have a low fixed rate mortgage (if at all) and plan to live in the house for at least 3, preferably 5 years, just stay where you are and don’t worry….if you are planning to sell or is an “investment” with negative returns, get out while you can….if you’re planning on buying wait some more and see how this unfolds a bit more…….it is ugly ugly ugly and I am very happy that I didn’t buy yet. Rent, rent, rent…
Click on my name.
AJ,
Thank you for your kind remarks, and yes, I believe personal insults are unwarranted and cross the line.
I cannot help the schadenfreude I feel sometimes, but I have not had that emotion with regards to you.
–
AJ, Here’s the thing, after posting I looked over the following (just headlines in most cases)
IHT
BBC news
Asia Times
FT
The Economist
–
These are not fringe blogs about Miami condos.
Case Shiller isn’t a nut job.
–
In all sincerity, it could get really REALLY ugly, a lot worse than what you hint at.
–
Worldwide, nobody believes that things could not spiral out of total control very quickly in a matter of days if not hours. We are not talking about a “US recession” in this case.
Against this backdrop, some of the things you say sound like hubris; if you get really hurt I will not gleefully rejoice, on the other hand, if Jorge Perez goes bankrupt I will buy a bottle of clicquot and laugh myself silly.
I’m sorry for offending your delicate sensibilities. The reason there are few women on this blog is because fewer women are in the upscale Miami condo market. Why change identities anyways…. I am all marks but no one else.
What effect will police layoffs and higher crime have on brickell condos? Miami Beach will fare better because it literally has a moat surrounding it.
The premium view and location units will hold up well even in a bad recession, compared to the remaining units. But this number of premium units is small compared to the total number. A building with 400 units may only have 40 of what i would consider premium units. Wealthy people who own those will not sell at a loss, and will end up keeping them and enjoying the units for years to come. The remaining units in the building will get slaughtered if the economy continues down. Many of these units are held by the not wealthy population who tried to make their retirement fund in a two year flipping deal. It is this type of owner and these units that are now underwater (way underwater) which are creating the problem.
I began looking for 2B units at $400k a year ago, recently considered purchases at $300k, and now believe that $200k will be what it takes to make me do a deal. The risk/reward issues dictate this. Otherwise, you become a slave to an illiquid asset which drains your cash and eliminates mobility for better job prospects in the future.
I’m with Gables. I will pull the trigger and buy at a price point between 200k-275k at Marina Blue or 900 Biscayne.
What are 2B units?
2B units= 2 Bedroom Units
Can anyone tell me why the developer of Epic chose to put up an ugly neon sign on the parking garage? And when do closings start?
And to help the lovefest here, AJ (and the other optimists, including lala), I respect you…although I disagree with 98.2% of what you say. Kramer on the otherhand (query: where did he go?) is horrible and threatens us all.
I think it’s funny that according to the WSJ article Jorge Perez was educated as an urban planner…talk about doing a lot with your education, sheesh…
gables,
I think your assessment is so far the most accurate regarding the premium units in a building. For those who missed, this is what gables said and it confirms my belief that all flats are not created equal:
“The premium view and location units will hold up well even in a bad recession, compared to the remaining units. But this number of premium units is small compared to the total number. A building with 400 units may only have 40 of what i would consider premium units. Wealthy people who own those will not sell at a loss, and will end up keeping them and enjoying the units for years to come. The remaining units in the building will get slaughtered if the economy continues down. Many of these units are held by the not wealthy population who tried to make their retirement fund in a two year flipping deal.”
Very well said. Let us see what will happen in 6 months to a year from now. As before, I will be periodically track these premium units and see how they fare compared to the rest of the condo inventory. They should hold their own. That is why I keep telling people, there is no better time to buy a premium unit with a view. Wealthy people who bought the 5%-10% premium flats in a building usually do not get affected that much by a downturn. They will ride it out or just enjoy their flats until time is right. I have personally spoken to a few owners of these premium flats and they are fiercely possessive about their premium water view units. They said they will continue to keep them under any circumstance no matter what and they have the wherewithal to do so.
Of course, there are always some unqualified poor souls who booked a premium flat hoping to flip it and got stuck. You might see a deal here or deal there and grab it when it comes along. Remember my floor $325/sf (it is equivalent to the floor price of $125 set by some for non premium- non view units). I think the price of the premium units cannot go below that. So if any of these premium units currently averaging $500/sf should go below $350/sf for any reason due to distress, foreclosure etc, and you are the end user looking for a premium flat with water views, buy without hesitation. You wont regret it. Sorry Tom.
I do not have any arguments with those predicting $150/sf or even $125/sf. If you are in the market to buy those kind of flats in a non waterfront building with city view or partial water view, no contest here.
Angel,
Can you be more specific? 200-275K for 1 BR or 2 BR? At what price per SF will you jump in?
Muir,
Do you know that Jorge Perez, Pedro Martin, Jack McCabe, Peter Zalewski et all read this blog regularly? You are making them very uncomfortable. They are all closet readers of MCI.
I think every RE guy reads this blog because it is the only blog with a point and counter point, both bulls and bears. Makes it kind of Balanced unlike the much maligned blog of that SOBE guy with nothing but positive spin on everything and also unlike some of bubble blogs where it is nothing but negative spin on everything.
Jcrimes,
How much $ per SF presently for the Epic river loft that you are eying? At what price per SF do you think you will be justified to jump in? (I did not get your love fest comment. Anyway I would not ask you to elaborate either)
Lala, You are a city planner too. Did you know that they had a meeting with citizens and city officials last week with regards to the complete makeover of the NE 2nd avenue? They are changing the face of that road completely. It will drive any last remnants of undesirables out of that area completely. There was a big opposition from the local residents to the plan of removing all street parking on 2nd ave and making them wide pedestrian side walks.
Anyway, I am glad the city is still undertaking public works projects such as Biscayne Blvd and 2nd Avenue redevelopment in spite of the downturn. I hope the work starts and finishes before they run out of money!
AJ – You are simply wrong. Even “premium view” units will take a hit. You seem to be saying that the wealthy people that can hold onto their units and not sell, you said they are “fiercely possessive about their premium water view units” as if there aren’t a lot of them when you add up all the buildings BUT then you say “of course, there are always some unqualified poor souls who booked a premium flat hoping to flip it and got stuck” who will presumably sell their unit or get foreclosed upon. Your post made little sense, you basically said that those that do sell will lose (they got stuck) and the those that don’t sell (presumably because they are wealthy) won’t have the value of their unit go down. It makes no sense. They are all going down, the only way to gage prices absent a sale is to take a comparative unit that sold…which you will then said it doesn’t apply because the poor soul had to sell, it was a foreclosure unit, it was under distress, or whatever.
There is no basis for $325/s.f. for being the pricing floor for even good views (or I suppose you will then say premium views, not your average direct water view, and must be the penthouse, etc. etc. etc.) expect for misplaced optimism and desperate hope rooted in denial.
Yes, we all agree premium locations (which include premium views) in stable buildings with well run HOA’s will do better than the other buildings and units. That is always true in real estate. But these will be affected quite a bit too since those “premium” units were premiumly bubble priced more than the others…that is, people had already factored that in during the bubble. The argument could be that the premium units got the worst of feeding frenzy and are the most overpriced… Just a thought.
Remember 4th Q ’08 is gonna be ugly….
Renter Tom,
You always back up your arguments with figures and well-reasoned argument; thus, somewhat perplexed why you posted a link to the Business Week article (“The Worst Condo Markets”) where this drivel passes for analysis:
“Santa Ana is home to major subprime lenders such as New Century Financial. As a result, many such mortgages were written in the market during the housing bubble. Now, there are “lots of subprime mortgages going under,” says Appleton-Young of the California Association of Realtors.”
Completely agree with your reasoning, overall however; just disagree on the actual percentages that the market will suffer as well as duration.
rantings
“I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!”
AJ
275-300 sq ft and i’m seriously considering it…250 sq ft, it’s a no brainer. will units go to that price? maybe. right now, i’ve been quoted with prices in the high 400sq/ft low 500 sq/ft. i’d like to think that will trend downward with icon and the rest of the buildings saturating the market. remember, loft units appeal to a certain person (not couples, not seniors, and not families). i don’t see myself getting married down here anytime soon (god bless the awfulness of miami girls) nor do i fall in the latter groups. couple that with the fact that a building like epic simply doesn’t work as a rental and i’m wishfully hoping there is some price softness.
way i look at it, for me to make a move to brickell, an equivalent sized unit has to be lower priced than what i can get in mid beach (think vilazul/vilamur) or interior in south beach. moreover, since i’m not big into amenities, the price has to be lower to compensate for the much higher HOA that i would pay at a building at epic compared to the smaller buildings i prefer on the beach.
fairkim – I think I posted the wrong link…there were three articles I was reading. Will try to find the better one since the Business Week article was pretty cursory like you said….. The WSJ article is better and I think the other one was from Forbes. However, the WSJ analysis that we are only HALF way through the price declines from the peak is scary……. I wasn’t prepared to go that far yet I would have thought we were past the midway point as far as drops from the peak in NOMINAL dollars. The more stories I hear of how utterly irresponsible people were living lies on credit and sucking out home equity….it truly was refi madness. Now that the bill is due people are doing things, including unethical and criminal, to get out of their obligations…it is truly sad.
We have the highest number of formerly occupied but now vacant homes ever. So many people bought more than one or the real kicker is to graduate from college with student loan debt then buy a home or condo when you’ll probably move in the next few years anyway…..all those young college grad singles living in their own condos are in for a long road of hurt….their debt burden, higher taxes, stagnant incomes, higher unemployment, etc. won’t be good for them as they try to pay off their debt. Colleges and universities should be ashamed at the debt burden they have placed on students….so much was at schools to provide an “experience” with little added value to their education….that will change in 10 years.
Its amazing the amount of people on here who are still quoting what the asking prices are or what the average asking prices are. These numbers are meaningless, what counts is the average selling price which is tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars below the asking price. This number too is meaningless because The Smart Money has been telling you for nigh on two years what the selling price is going to be and that price is:
$125.00 per square foot pay and not a penny more or you’ll be catching a falling knife.
The Smart Money
AJ:
Allow me to clarify. I will jump in at 275k for a 2 Bed / 200k for a 1Bed. The reason I stated Marina Blue or 900 Biscayne is because all of the units in those buildings have direct water views if I am not mistaken. TMP is a no go because there is no way in hell I am letting the valet boys drive my car every day multiple times.
I have 7 units I am unloading at Epic at cost, and 12 units at Icon. I will sell in bulk at loss. Any takers?
Angel,
That would make it $200/sf. Wow! That is $300 less than the $500/sf in Marina Blue and $400 less than the $600/sf in 900 currently. That means you will jump in only if the current prices in MB and 900 fall a further 60%-66%. If you can find a unit at that price in MB and 900, please let me know. I will buy one too.
Tom,
What is so tough to understand? I pay no more than 20K for car. But there are People that pay 80K or more for a car for status and acceleration. So why can’t you accept that there are enough people who would pass up a $150/sf (bottom price) for a plain Jane flat and will pay $325 (again bottom price for a premium unit) for the sake of Status and Views?
Secondly, let us assume that due to a long drawn recession, prices do bottom out to these levels. But with the first sign of recovery, consumer confidence and liquidity ease the luxury or premium water view units will rebound first and erase their losses. The rest will be another story.
Thirdly, there are not tonnes of premium units out there. They are very limited. I can single handedly count them in the 50 odd new buildings. How many buildings from Julia Tuttle to Rickenbacker have direct unobstructed water views? Not many. Especially not in Brickell unless you are in Jade or Santa Maria and the likes. Gables generously quoted 10% units are classified such. I think it is more like 6%. Other than MB and 900 where almost all units have some water view, 50 Biscayne and 1800 has about a 3rd with water views, Quantum south tower has only two lines (01,02) with full water views. Same with One Miami. Only Icon’s East tower has very limited units.
So there may be 20,000 new flats coming up but only 1200-1500 are the premium units with complete water views in a waterfront building. Miami being the glitz and glamour capital of the World, these units will recover much much quicker when recovery begins than the rest of the units due to their sheer desirability.
Just an Example, Check the prices of line 01 and 02 in Waverly. Then check the prices of lines 03 to 14. See how much premium, people would pay for premium water view units. Same goes with Floridian lines 01 and 11 corners. The rest do not even match up. I will just leave it there for you to think it over.
I am willing to bet on this Tom. So let us start tracking. Put the closing sales numbers of the sample premium units I mentioned previously. Let us see if any of these sell below the floor price of $325 I came up with.
Jcrimes,
I think $300 in Epic might be a bit low. Being Santa Maria’s sister building and high cieling loft with River views? But I wish you the best, people like you should move to downtown from SOBE. That will be good for the area.
How bad of a hit do you guys think Everglades on the Bay is gonna take? $200 sf maybee?
AJ – Yep, those wealthy people sure are lining up to buy these “trophy” properties… The fact is the luxury market is starting to get hit hard. One point which you haven’t addressed is that perhaps the prices for these “premium views” condos had already factored in the “premium views” during the bubble years. My guess is that the “premium views” condos are just as overpriced as the rest of the units with perhaps more pre-construction buyer activity and contract flipping than the other units. It isn’t like people just figured out now that these units would have some of the best views in the building. The value of a view is very subjective…even speculative, so there is little there to support it when things get bad. I just don’t agree with your assumption that there are all these wealthy people out there to overpay for the view….I don’t see them moving the upper priced market. Maybe they had their money in IndyMac or something…. Russia is getting slammed.
Nope. The wealthy people are not lining up to buy. They already bought them! 4 years ago. The only catch is that they cannot sell them for a profit or break even at this time. But they know what they have on hand – a winner. A supermajority of them will just enjoy these units as they can afford to carry them until time is right to sell. For a small minority, it will be a struggle.
But why do we have to beat ourselfs over this. Just wait until Spring – Summer 09 and the picture will be clear. You and me ain’t going nowhere.
Just a couple of predictions.
The G20 meeting in DC on Nov 15th is a precursor for a Worldwide co-ordinated effort to tackle this issue. It will be a multi pronged attack from all angles by all countries. It will definitely cut short the pain.
Contrary to all the fearmongers, the Barack Obama Presidency with the Dem Congress will actually put the country back on a responsible fiscal road to recovery and control spending which the Republicans completely failed to do. Even the notion that Clinton era surplus or budget balancing will come back to this country will instill superb confidence among US institutions.
The war will either end or scaled down dramatically putting aplug in the $10 billion leak a month.
There will be job losses through larger part of 09 but economy will recover in the same year.
The excesses of the 2000’s will be a thing of the past and the country will be more fiscally conservative.
The housing recovery will start sometime next year, dont know when. When it does, the price rise will only keep up with the inflation.
OK OK Ok, don’t you all go crazy. Dont bother to contradict everything with pie charts and graphs. I am just having sum fun!
Man AJ that last post sounds uber optimistic. From your mouth to God’s ears brother!
AJ #57: hahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahahahaha…..I couldn’t stop laughing! Great post, you should be a fiction writer! Boy are you going to be disappointed. Unlike Clinton that took over an economy already in sharp recovery (was too late for the election) if elected Odumbo will take over on the decline and the spending will make our current deficit look like pocket change. My prediction, the yearly budget deficits will be double under Odumbo and we’ll still be in Iraq when he leaves office (we’ll have a major base in northern Iraq for 50 years like S. Korea) and Odumbo will just come up with some excuse or explanation….Odumbo needs some experience first before promising anything to get elected and he paints a Disney World fantasy land of false promises, boy are people going to be disappointed and sadly the worst hit will be those that have put the most (false) hope in the guy…he just won’t be able to deliver what he’s promising…and HE KNOWS IT! We will be in a world of hurt. I am seriously reviewing wealth preservation plans and will implement some if this guy gets elected.
Obamapalooza – the $2M+ (plus local govt costs and overtime) cost gathering in Grant Park that Obama campaign is planning. Let the silly spending begin! Why wait until the election! Somehow I suspect there will be trouble being that far south of the river… Let’s all celebrate more govt programs, welfare, etc…. I just have little sympathy for people that complain and complaining but don’t bother to get a GED, sorry but you have to help yourself a bit too….like the very fat “poor” lady in Chicago getting FEMA aid on the news who complained and complained about the “flood” as if the government was to blame for the record rainfall a few weeks back and then complained about having to stand in line to only have to come back the next day since here debit welfare card was already maxed out to the limit of how much money the govt could put on it….I guess she had to go spend some and come back the next day to get $450….. Sorry for the rant guys, but the optimistic post just has me thinking how out of tune people are….
fairkim – here is the Forbes post….click my name.
Meanwhile…as the possible Odumbo election comes nearly, stock markets around the world are in meltdown. People with wealth are concerned and will put their money elsewhere instead of getting taxed ever higher amounts. For some reason, the foreign buyers won’t be flocking to Miami condos this winter….. It is getting ugly and I am concerned regarding a worldwide wealth and income meltdown. A global recession is pretty darn certain now.
Global troubles, see BBC article by clicking my name….
Question (Sorry if off topic):
I recently put in an offer: $355K for a unit with ocean view at Vilazul in north beach. Was listed at $399K. Could not get the price I wanted so I decided to holdoff and look for a unit in either Vilazul/Vilasol/Vilazul when better deals become available.
Anyone have any idea / predictions for $/sq ft for these buildings in 2009. Would it be unrealistic to see these at $200/ft or below in the future ?
RT, you make me laugh so hard every time you claim McCan’t is the answer to our prayers. He’s is going senile! He wants to go ahead with the $10Billion a month leak to the invasion in Iraq that had nothing to do with 911. He has chosen a woman dumber than Bush to be the VP and parading her unmarried prego daughter in front of the so called moral conservatives. He has looked so confused when the word economy comes in front of him.
He looks like he’s jacked up on a gallon on Red Bull. Obama’s tax plan is going to help 95% of people of US making less than $250,000 and dumb McCan’t tells these people how he’s going to help rich people get richer. He’s gonna bleed this economy worse than a guy shot with a bazooka.
Obama’s spending is a foundation we need to removes decades of 19th century thinking. We still are using oil to power almost everything when cheaper alternatives like solar, thermal, wind etc are available. Senile grandfather here still wants to drill when the oil wont reach us for another 10 years and we don’t have the refining capacity for it….
The only thing he has done so far is being negative. We can’t afford another senile Bush for next 4 years!!
Roger, I want some of that stuff you’re smoking…lol
I just looked at Jade’s recent sales and saw this:
Unit 211 sold $190,000 asking $194,900 psf $146.95 sf 1,293
1bed/2bath sold 08-12-2008 days on mls 6
WOW, I didn’t even see it on MLS. Does anyone know if this unt has views? Seems big for a 1 bed? Could this be a real(legit) sale?
Miami2009: Or you could stop smoking whatever you are smoking and see the reality.
Don’t call this a recession, call it a normalization to where the world should be without excess credit. Way too many condos were built that few people can truly afford, too many Bentley’s were made to lease to people who didn’t have the cash to buy them, an oversupply of Rolex Daytonas for the wrists that can comfortably afford them, not enough walls for all the plasmas bought on pay later plans, and way too many kids in credit card debt sporting iphones and $100 sneakers.
This is the globe getting off credit. It’s happening sooner rather than later but it had to happen.
Home sales gain biggest since July 2003
1 hr 36 mins ago Reuters – A house for sale in California in a file photo. (Erin Siegal/Reuters)
– Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose 5.5 percent last month, the biggest gain since July 2003, and the inventory of unsold homes fell, a hopeful sign for a housing market mired in a long slump.
The National Association of Realtors said on Friday that sales of existing homes rose to a 5.18 million-unit annual rate from the 4.91 million unit pace set in August. Economists had expected sales to rise to only a 4.93 million unit rate.
It was the first time the sales pace had risen above its year ago level in three years, a sign the market could be stabilizing.
The surprisingly large jump in sales pushed the inventory of unsold homes down by 1.6 percent to 4.27 million, or a 9.9 months’ supply at the current pace. While the inventory is still uncomfortably high, the decline is welcome news for a housing market mired in a deep slump.
Home prices, however, showed no signs of escaping their long, deep slide. The median national home price declined 9 percent from a year ago to $191,600, the lowest level since April 2004, the industry trade group said.
The increase in sales was spurred by a rise in foreclosure and other ‘distress sales’ in regions of the country hard-hit by the ongoing housing downturn, said the Realtors’ chief economist, Lawrence Yun.
“In some regions, the lower prices are seeing buyers return to the marketplace,” he said. “This was a nice jump and hopefully this trend can continue because the first step to stabilizing the market is an increase in home sales.”
Sales rose in three regions, with the West recording a 16.8 percent jump. The Midwest saw an increase of 4.4 percent and the South saw a 2.2 percent rise. In the Northeast, sales fell 1.2 percent.
#57 The next stimulus package will be between 100 and 200 billion. There goes the cost savings of stopping the war in Iraq for 1-2 years.
Tom, You seem to have something against poor people. Not everyone is poor because they are lazy.
I would rather let the Dems give some (a pittance) chump change to welfare programs than the Reps give Billions in welfare to their cronies and no bid contracts to Halliburton.
Just a thought, just the money looted by Halliburton is enough to fund every social program the Dems propose. It is disgusting to see the investment bank CEO’s walking away with billions after running it to the ground. 90% of those scumbags are either Republicans or their cronies.
Honestly, Tom, do you thing that bastard Richard Fuld can manage Lehman better than you? If a true conservative like you is at the helm at one of these whore houses, we would not have gotten in to this mess.
It is unfortunate that educated people like you got convinced by the Republicans that they are fiscal conservatives.
Your case is exactly similar to the American Taliban who got convinced by the Republicans that they are the keepers of God and Values and Patriotism.
I can understand when a boorish redneck from the West Virginia believes this Republican spin. How foolish is that educated people like you and those in the Bible Belt are convinced that Republicans stand for Fiscal Conservatism and “Family Values” etc.
Wake Up!!
I agree with your points about the Military Industrial Complex AJ. You fail to realize you are part of the Real Estate Industrial Complex.
Click on name. Like I previously posted:
THOMAS KOSTIGEN’S ETHICS MONITOR
Harsh reality
Commentary: The real tragedy of this financial crisis is that people will die
By Thomas Kostigen, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:25 p.m. EDT Oct. 23, 2008Comments: 511
SANTA MONICA, Calif. (MarketWatch) — The harsh reality of the economic fallout isn’t that Joe the plumber can’t buy his business or that people’s retirement funds are being lost or that unemployment is rising; the harsh reality is that people will die.
Oh AJ, why do you always put words in my mouth? Hate poor people, oh please…as I have posted I make donating to true charities a priority. My point is able bodied people that don’t take charge of and responsibility for their lives are simply not a charity. The federal govt by taking over what should be local charity between persons has enabled people to become essentially wards of the state and sucked out the human potential. Come on, H.S. education is free for the taking….foreigners come in and grab that opportunity but some Americans don’t, it is truly a bizarro world that the fed govt has enabled….we’re the only country where poor people are obese, don’t have to work or beg, have a car and a single family place to live (rent or otherwise), cell phone and cable TV. It is an absurdity when so much opportunity is around them. As far as war spending goes, it is unfortunate that it is as high as it is, but the alternative could have been far far worse and only in 20-40 years will we really know.
I will agree with JL that there simply was an over abundance of goods produced and the only way to get them in the hands of others was to provide credit….unfortunately we hit a point where credit was extended beyond incomes for some people ….. sorta just like Miami condos I suppose…..
AJ – the other thing is weird is when the Chicago TV camera goes to film the lines a bunch of people cover their faces…..they are able bodied enough to stand in line for 6-8 hours for $450 in govt money, but won’t do the same standing behind a cash register or whatever job there is that doesn’t require a H.S. education? I just don’t see able bodied people as so helpless they can’t help themselves let alone contribute to society.
Gold is getting dumped….
Meanwhile, Tom you did not answer the crucial question. How come educated people like you got wool pulled over their eyes by the Republicans? What makes those SOB’s better than the Loser Dems? Just because they say so? The Republicans are worse than the Dems when it comes to spending. Dems spend on the poor (at least they say so) and the Reps give dole to the rich and super rich. No difference. The Reps absolutely did not patent God. And definitely not family values – Every 9 out 10 sleaze bags that get caught with their pants down is a Republican.
Re #75,
A lady who I knew from NY moved an hour North of Tampa. She tried to commit suicide twice already, as since the past 2-3 years, she cannot even get a $7/hr job anywhere. When she went to an advertised job to pick up trash on the beach advertising $10/hr, she got passed over for being a Yankee and the job given to a toothless local redneck. She cannot sell her house in Hernando County and move back to NY as no one will buy it.
The last I heard she got a job cleaning bedpans of invalids in a nursing home for $7.50/ hr and no additional overtime pay. All this for someone who was a successful administrative assistant in a LI firm until making the fatal move to Spring Hill – Weeki Watchie.
Don’t give me that BS saying there is work for everyone who wants to work. In some parts of the country, officially there is 9% unemployment but unofficially it is like 15% or more as people have simply stopped looking for work.
Just get off that high pedestal you are standing on.
AJ – Democrats have been in charge of Congress for the last 2 years……yep, let’s give the W.H. and veto proof Senate, that’ll solve things, esp. with all the promised new govt spending and taxing….. LOL Sure that’ll work…… LOL
What is a LI firm? I’m sure it will get a lot better for that lady if Obama gets elected…yeah right. Why do people look to the federal govt? Take responsibility for your own life people.
BTW – where do you see gold plummeting????
RenterTom
“I am seriously reviewing wealth preservation plans and will implement some if this guy gets elected.”
I’m calling a foul ball on this statement (which was a reply to AJs)
–
You can buy a 1000 shares strike price for around 13
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
—
You gotta hold yourself up to the same standards you do AJ.
If you feel there’s a lot of doubt on the election go for it.
A bet that nets you 750% return in 2 weeks!
By comparison AJs bet is sensible.
Muir – I don’t gamble, I invest.
Gambling is for those you are delusional and have “magical thinking” that they “feel” lucky or “special” and that that will change the odds. It doesn’t. Same goes for gambling on Miami condos. A risk in gambling is not the same as a risk in investments.
should be “who are” not “you are”
But did you look?!
Or just answer.
Give it a peek.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
A good example is to watch Deal or No Deal and the thinking that goes on in the decision making. Wed. there was an episode where an obviously emotionally maladjusted and needy morbidly obese man made delusional thinking decisions and ended up with $1 instead of 1/2 Million. It came down to two cases, one with $1 and one with $1 Million. He choose “no deal” since case 11 or 15 whichever it had always been a bad number for him so it had to have the $1 in it. I could not believe the poor decisions this guy was making. Same goes for condos….don’t come crying to me about the bad gamble.
Muir – I did click on the link. Isn’t Internet gambling illiegal? 🙂
By the way Tom, if you are talking about entitlements, may I point out some you did not mention, like the ultra-rich where I live who have never contributed to society a days work and yet have a total sense of entitlement to a live of conspicuous consumption.
As someone who had relatives on the board of Enron , Coca Cola, etc… I know about entitlement.
Muir – Somewhere the ultra rich worked for it…. what is it first generation makes it, 2nd tries to preserve it, 3rd spends it. I never said I opposed inheritance taxes….
Renter Tom /Oct 24, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Muir – I did click on the link. Isn’t Internet gambling illiegal? 🙂
–
Muir /Oct 23, 2008 at 9:10 pm
“I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!”
–
Of course, it was a reference to Allen Greenspan’s “shocked” statement.
And a nod to the many here who gamble, err, I mean speculate on condos.
Renter Tom /Oct 24, 2008 at 12:47 pm Vote:
Muir – Somewhere the ultra rich worked for it…. what is it first generation makes it, 2nd tries to preserve it, 3rd spends it. I never said I opposed inheritance taxes….
–
No Tom, somewhere the ultra rich stole it.
Yes, let’s tax Hollywood at 70%.
Muir – Did Steve Job steal for his wealth? What about Meg Whitman? Joe the plumber? Bob the farmer? Yes, some people have been unethical. But I believe in creating wealth through added value. Also, I want all Americans to succeed but success comes through personal effort and responsibility. Look at Suze Orman…..see was living out of her car but kept working and working….from a waitress at the Buttercup Cafe to an uber wealthy women…..only in America… Foreigners seize the opportunities but so many Americans do not….it really is such a waste of human potential.
So you get your mental stimulation from Deal Or No Deal!
RT lets not have this argument.
Lets look at AJ’s intellectual dishonesty in post #69. A certain bearish blogger has a link from TODAY’s Miami Herald that directly (like a direct view) contradicts him about condos!!!!
AJ – yes, I do like Deal Or No Deal…. great show in that you can see how people make decisions and how emotions can get in the way. Why anyone would gamble 1/2 Million Dollars for a double or nothing bet when that amount of money is 10x’s+ your annual income is beyond a rational decision and was based on hocus pocus. I guess playing with the “house’s money” is easy…..JUST LIKE condo investing with no money down, neg. amort loans, cash back at closing, etc……but that was playing with the bank’s money and now we’re all the bank! Ouch. So yes, Deal Or No Deal is relevant to Miami Condo Investments. There isn’t any more of the house’s money for people to gamble with now.
That article is:
Here is another good, but short article to consider before you pop the champaign AJ:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27362198
You can ignore all the stories and data. The best way to gauge what’s going on in the Miami condo market is by tracking Marina Blue and 900 Biscayne.
Closings coming to a halt and resales piling up and prices getting dropped with no sales… That’s all you need to know.
AJ, RT When we speak about politics and election passions jump very high. I agree with AJ about premium units that are going to be hit much less and recover more quickly. Would I invest right now. Probably not but myself like AJ are already in it . As long as we are not desperate we are not going to sell because we understand the value.
On political spectrum I agree with RT because I am against Obama’s economic plan. I agree that certain changes have to take place like regulations, health care system is really bad (not affordable to a lot of people but to change it is a very complicated process). I think that higher education and art have to get sponsorship from the goverment. I do not think that Obama would be able to implement it. What turned me off him completely is his affiliation with Wright. It was a long and very affectionate affiliation. I do not agree with a lot of things in Republican Party but I admire McCain ‘s integrity and his expertise on security issues which not if not more important than Economy. These are my 2 pennies.
Lara, who owns the high cieling park front/bayview loft in Quantum, is that you or Lala?
Disheartening story. I had met someone who is from a S. American country and is in the U.S. working at a good stable job that is part of our local/state government. It pays well with great benefits, etc. being a govt job and all. Why an American doesn’t have this good job instead I don’t know cuz the guy doesn’t plan on being in the U.S. forever. We were talking and of course real estate came up…..he wanted to know if the govt was going to help pay off people’s mortgages cuz he had heard that they were. When I said I hadn’t heard that the govt was going to pay off people’s principal he said he didn’t see why he should have to pay $X each month if he wasn’t make any money off owning the condo (he lives in it himself, he doesn’t rent it out). He thinks his condo is worth 1/2 what he paid and yes he has a low fixed interest rate. I said well if he was going to live there for more years why worry about it now? Well, he said if the govt won’t write down his mortgage (note, he can afford to pay the mortgage) he’d just stop paying and live for free for 1-1.5 years, bank the cash and move back to his country…. Wow, the mentality of people. I was disappointed to hear that someone from another country would come to the U.S., take a good paying govt job, get a loan to buy a condo, and they be so quick to screw over the U.S. and leave. The result will be banks simply won’t give out loans to people with similar situations. People really need to take responsibility for themselves….
One of my first predictions was that the 4th Q 2008 would be the quarter of capitulation where we see people just throw in the towel and give up as hopeless. My last prediction was that home prices will over correct on the downside of the historical norm. Now, I am predicting that home prices will NOT bottom in 2009 even in NOMINAL dollar terms. Keep this post and read it in 2010….tape it to your bathroom mirror if you want.
Another Friday…..another bank failure. Alpha Bank & Trust in Georgia
AJ, yes one of my investments in Miami is a loft in Quantum
Oh, healthcare isn’t affordable at 300/mo? But condos with their 700/mo HOA are? get real!!!
Oh, and one more prediction…put this one on the frig…U.S. unemployment will NOT reach its peak in 2009.
By the by, while all this talk is going on…
a 2/2 hit Vue at $121.75 /sq foot
–
1149 sq ft unit
lists for 139K
–
Spread the word…. I need knife catchers
–
–
12 months from today
$75 sq ft
Heard it here first
–
The REAL smart money (sorry ACE)
Unit 1814
Previous sale: Sale Amount: $725,000
—
BWAAAHAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
–
More condo debtors….
Country singer Lorrie Morgan has filed for bankruptcy for primarily business related debts, according to a court filing.
“It’s very important to me that my fans and business associates understand that I’m OK,” Lorrie Morgan said.
Morgan filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in federal court, listing her estimated liabilities between $1 million to $10 million. The bankruptcy filing showed her with assets of $500,000 to $1 million. She also owns investment 3 Miami condos in “Plaza on Brickell”.
The 49-year-old singer, who lives in the Nashville, Tennessee suburb of Lebanon, released a statement calling the bankruptcy “an unfortunate yet necessary part of the restructuring of my business.”
“It’s very important to me that my fans and business associates understand that I’m OK,” she said. “Today’s economic times have affected many American families and businesses. I, along with many of you, am not immune to this fact. I would appreciate the courtesy of my friends and fans respecting my privacy regarding this matter. I am confident that I can still emerge from this eventually as my Miami condos have direct bay views and will therefore be very valuable at a future date.”
Morgan lists her creditors as the Internal Revenue Service, banks, lawyers and others. Phone calls made by The Associated Press on Friday to Morgan’s bankruptcy trustee and attorney weren’t immediately returned.
Damn!!! This is the right story
Country singer Lorrie Morgan has filed for bankruptcy for primarily business related debts, according to a court filing.
“It’s very important to me that my fans and business associates understand that I’m OK,” Lorrie Morgan said.
Morgan filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in federal court, listing her estimated liabilities between $1 million to $10 million. The bankruptcy filing showed her with assets of $500,000 to $1 million. She also owns 3 Miami investment condos in “Plaza on Brickell”.
The 49-year-old singer, who lives in the Nashville, Tennessee suburb of Lebanon, released a statement calling the bankruptcy “an unfortunate yet necessary part of the restructuring of my business.”
“It’s very important to me that my fans and business associates understand that I’m OK,” she said. “Today’s economic times have affected many American families and businesses. I, along with many of you, am not immune to this fact. I would appreciate the courtesy of my friends and fans respecting my privacy regarding this matter. I am confident that I can still emerge from this eventually as my Miami condos have direct bay views and will therefore be very valuable at a future date.”
Morgan lists her creditors as the Internal Revenue Service, banks, lawyers and others. Phone calls made by The Associated Press on Friday to Morgan’s bankruptcy trustee and attorney weren’t immediately returned.
AJ – You up for helping out a little ole country singer? Maybe she can write one of those said country songs about Miami condos….it will sure be a hit, although few who can relate will be able to actually buy it though….perhaps you would be able to hear the song on the speakers in all the amenity areas in those condos, assuming the HOA paid the electric bill.
“I am confident that I can still emerge from this eventually as my Miami condos have direct bay views and will therefore be very valuable at a future date.”
–
Ok, funny but not true.
Inflation anybody?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/20081023/usfd.pdf
–
So, you mean that you guys at the FED in Minneapolis are telling me that the 700B bailout was a hoax?
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/WP/WP666.pdf
–
Warning, PDFs.
While “comment is awaiting moderation” click my name for FED money supply nightmare.
Well Lot of people strongly believe that their direct bayview flats will hold their value or will rebound much quicker than the rest. Perception is everything. Confidence is everything. In fact, I am so surprised that she mentioned the 3 Miami condos with direct bayviews specifically in her statement. That shows how strongly she believes in the product. So all of you can wait till the cows come home, But no one holding the premium flats and lofts are going to give it away unless they are forced to due to other factors. You are more than welcome to buy the rest of the non water view, non water front building flats for $150 or $125 or $75 or $0. You ain’t getting My flat or Lara’s bayfront loft and so many other premium flats for a discount. If you want views, luxury and location, you got to pay for it. But If you are just looking for a roof over your head, luck is in your favor now.
Lara, you will be happy to know that Miami city will be starting the redevelopment of Biscayne boulevard and NE 2nd avenue from 15th st to 30th st soon. That would benefit Quantum and the Pace Park area seriously.
Jcrimes thinks Epic will be a success among the super six. I am beginning to feel very positive about Paramount Bay and its prospects. It, along with Everglades on The Bay might do well. That leaves Icon, Infinity and Marquis in an iffy position.
Can someone, anyone with info on Paramount bay come forward please?
Going off to BB Kings in Times Square. Tom, refrain from any wise cracks as I would not be at hand to refute them until tomorrow. Happy Weekend!
RT says he doesn’t gamble. You know what’s worse than gambling? Investing in a known loser such as McCain the ramblin’ gambler and Palin, his hand-picked bimbo-in-arms.
Obama is clearly smarter and better educated than RT and his chosen candidate so calling him dumb says much about the roots of RT’s preferences and biases.
You can’t argue with the religious conversions of either Tom or AJ
A Friend of mine reserved an apartment at Paramount Bay for $1.2 mil. Obviously she put down more than $200,000. The walls of the building are erected but they still have to do all interior works. I think that people who decided to invest in Paramount Bay are very well to do but they are worried too. This friend of mine is not in a happy camp now. Can she afford it? Yes. Would she rather not be there? Yes.
To Mark (Not Zilbert): Why do you mix up condo owners and healthcare system? Healthcare system is not affordable to a lot of people in this country. IT must be some sort of social defense system placed here. Everyone should have access to medical help. It is a basic thing like food and water. Unfortunately medicaid system that exists here and sponsored by the Federal Government is being abused in more ways than one can imagine. It means that it is not managed properly. It tells you that healthcare reform will be a very difficult process.
On the other hand it is not an absolute necessity for people to own a condo with $700 of maintenance fees. There are other much more affordable alternatives. So do not mix one with another.
AJ, great news about transformation of NE 2nd Ave. Despite all bad trends with real estate in Miami I like the area very much and see a great future for it. Though it will take some time.
AJ said: “But no one holding the premium flats and lofts are going to give it away unless they are forced to due to other factors.”
AJ – It’s that true regardless of whether the flat or condo is premium or not??? Come on. You need to get off the fence about these so called “premium” units. Either they are immune from price declines (say more than 10% to be generous) or they are not. I say they are not. Per lara’s honest quote, a lot of people even if they can afford it really wish they hadn’t bought that extra condo. People thought it would appreciate at least above the rate of inflation and they aren’t. As I’ve posted, you’d be wise to have gotten out or get out now of the two Miami condos that you own. But hey, if you wanna keep smoking whatever it is that you are smoking and go to BB King concert so be it. I just don’t want others to make the same mistake now that you made then. We’re in two different situations, I’d like to buy but won’t because the prices by and large are over priced and there is uncertainty regarding stability of condo HOA’s (and the headaches and expense caused by such problems) and you’ve made condo investing (one a house right?) into pretty much your sole major investment category so you have to have hope. Anyway, good luck and best wishes with it but do try to be realistic, the writing isn’t just on the wall, it’s on the floor, ceiling and smack dab in your water view too.
By the way Inside Bob – I’d go toe to toe with Odumbo any day. There are very few people in this world whom I have been truly impressed with, he ain’t one of them…..nor is he that smart. He sounds like a kid in high school with plans that are not well thought through mixed with some sort of southern preacher. He’s the one who claims to be the “hope”, unfortunately those that put their hope in him will be hurt the most…..
I bet most people who felt rich 3 years ago feel far from it now. Leveraged in the stock market, leveraged in the RE market, 4 credit cards with large balances, all cars leased, little equity in the primary home and an unstable non-traditional income source is kind of the norm for a “wealthy” Miami resident.
re: Obama. He’s definitely sharper than McCain but experience trumps brains in life.
“In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they’re different.”
Renter Tom /Oct 24, 2008 at 9:56 pm Vote:
“By the way Inside Bob – I’d go toe to toe with Odumbo any day. There are very few people in this world whom I have been truly impressed with, he ain’t one of them…..nor is he that smart. He sounds like a kid in high school with plans that are not well thought through mixed with some sort of southern preacher. He’s the one who claims to be the “hope”, unfortunately those that put their hope in him will be hurt the most…”
–
You are more delusional than AJ
–
The delusion was the last 8 years son.
Or simpler Tom,
Praise be to Jesus!
synopsis of last 8 years.
Just sitting here watching her, going on and on. Can’t wait to see Mrs. Barack Obama in the White House. Won’t that be nice? What about you?
samson – Mrs. Barack Obama a.k.a. Amarosa from The Apprentice?
Hey AJ, that quote was a joke. You’re pretty insane to think that someone would mention direct bay views. I’m pleased with my joke. I laughed quite a bit.
1. Denial:
* Example – “There is no Miami Condo bubble. Prices will just stabilize and increase at the rate on inflation”
2. Anger:
* Example – “Why are the newspapers reporting nothing but bad news! This wouldn’t happen if that jerk renter tom wasn’t talking down the market!!
3. Bargaining:
* Example – “Okay, so maybe other units will drop in price but direct bay views won’t fall further than 5-10%. Right God?”<—-AJ is here.
4. Depression:
* Example – “Why did I buy this overpriced condo? I’m ruined. I have no options…boo hooo hooo”
5. Acceptance:
* Example – “It’s going to be OK.”; “I can’t fight this tide, I’ll just do a short sale or walk away.”
Mark NZ – The only problem with step 5 is that AJ has significant equity in his condos and as such a short sale wouldn’t work….all the loss would go directly onto him (unless he can HELOC to the max now). He poured all of his investment money into those condos and each month he has to supplement his tenant’s the lease payments with his own money. If only he could bailout everyone, we wouldn’t be in this mess! So, when he hits step 4 he’ll be stuck in a hopeless depression with little retirement savings…. Maybe he’ll stop the bleeding and sell the two Miami condos?
P.S. I was responsible for bringing down oil prices too….where’s the love people? LOL 🙂
Isn’t it funny that people talk about the mess this country is in, forget to mention People like Chris Dodd and Barney Frank…
Renter Tom: # 101.
I see a lot of recent immigrants leaving the country due to housing bubble and economic issues. Loans were easy to get and people who didnt have a green card got a loan. Many people who were here on H1B visa also were able to get loans for houses/condos. The dream of home ownership turned into a nightmare when the housing market crashed.
I dont think less of these immigrants who have decided to leave. They dont have family and other support system in the US to help them. If something bad happens, they are on their own. Also, the current political climate (republican) in this country seems to have decided to crack down on illegal immigrants….but that scares legal immigrants as well. They made a mistake by getting caught up in the housing bubble and now have to give up their dream of making it in the US and go back to their home country.
About the economy, the stock market is going lower and lower. AIG and banks are requiring more and more capital. The only positive thing is that rest of the world is more messed up then the US. 🙂 Roubini (respected economist who prediced this mess) said on CNBC that he expects the stock marke to crash and force the authorities to shut down the market for a few weeks.
carbonblackcab – You mean stock market in U.S.??? That won’t happen…well, unless it looks like the ZERObama is going to get elected (just had to throw that in didn’t I?). That would be a gravely serious matter. We just need to avoid a cascade of forced selling as this thing unwinds. Regarding immigrants up and leaving….I of thinking that one should honor one’s contracts and if the main reason to up and leave is because your house isn’t making you money anymore that seems silly since the payment is the same (in my earlier post) but if you were going to move back anyway, then it is understandable for a short sale maybe. However, people are LYING to get out and not paying even though they can….amazing when you have little skin in the game financially and also can leave the country…that will be something banks will factor in to the future for loans which could hurt sales of Miami condos to foreigners (which in some people’s mind was still a housing hope).
If the fed govt takes things over, including suspending the stock market, it may be time not only for gold, but for buying a gun…
Lucas
Lucas, if you have a chance Everglades On The Bay just recently received their Co and are now allowing buyers and I think other brokers a chance to view the complex. My closing is scheduled for the last week in November and they recently allowed me a sneak peak at my apartment and about 2-3 weeks ago with all the news about prices declining and all the bad news in the economy and stock market I asked someone in here (I forget who ) about advice on cancelling my contract and trying to salvage the 25% return my contract entitled me to on my original deposit. Also someone in here a week or so ago mentioned something about the difference in apartments with direct water view unobstructed 2 bedrms and those on lower floors with no or partial views. Anyway after my sneak peek and viewing my apartment and the recreation facilities I have completely changed my mind . All I can say is WOW! I have traveled extensively around the world and I can say without hesitation that their pool deck and clubhouse rivals anything I have ever seen. I would even dare say that there is no other amenities deck and pool area anywhere in Miami that comes close including Loews on the beach or Fountainbleu, except for maybe the Biltmore in Coral Gables. They showed me the clubhouse and pool area first. The pool deck is almost one block long and one block wide with two huge pools and then a full length lap pool. It has a huge round canopied bar/drink/casual food portion. Then -as it is on the eighth floor it unlike the other buildings on BIscayne Blvd faces direct east with stunning views of Bayfront Park-Bayside Marketplace and the Cruise Ships. The clubhouse directly behind it has four levels of seperate gym with machines-seperate weight room-seperate yoga room-seperate media room-seperate business center-room with pool tables and seperate womens and mens locker rooms with showers steam and sauna. In addition there is a huge party room large enough for a sitdown table party room and bar big enough for more than 100 people. Then when they showed me my apartment-2brm high floor direct east water and park view overlooking the pool deck -some minor issues here and there but the most incredible view I have seen anywhere. Anyway right then and there I changed my mind on the cancellation-as This is not an investment but my primary home-the train is about 50 feet from the front door-I can be in my office near the courthouse in five minutes. Anyway Lucas if you can get an appointment to get in and post some pictures here I would be curious as to your opinion and my assesment. Thanks.
BTW
My aprraisal came back last week and was fine so they have comps. Its 20% down locked in at 5.62% for 15 yrs fixed. Price is now appraised at about 40% below peak prices in August 06 but still slightly above what I paid pre-construction. Im closing!
I think the Everglades should be slotted below Marina Blue in pecking order since it’s not an all glass building but the amenities sound like they are supersized. However, doesn’t that just go to a higher HOA cost so there’s no free lunch with amenities?
What is the HOA in Everglades like say versus marina blue?
Clark,
Everglades location is really sweet. One of the best like the 50 Biscayne and One Miami. As I said before to others , if you are buying to live in your condo, there should be no hesitation especially for a high end flat like yours with such views.
The bleeding hearts cautioning others not to buy for the next 3 to 4 years have only one ulterior motive. Eliminate competition, drive down demand so that they can buy a superb flat for themselves for pennies on the Dollar. They are not here to buy a flat in Vue or Wind or Cynergi or something like that. They are looking to buy a flat like yours for the price of a flat in some low end building without views.
They have admitted it themselves. They are waiting for a kill. If they think that Miami Condo Market is so hopeless and bottom is years away, why are they even wasting their time here? They should revisit when the bottom hits in a few years from now and better spend their time elsewhere.
AJ – I’m just telling it like it is and don’t want to see people make huge financial mistakes which they then try to stiff the banks, govt, and taxpayers later. There are real human costs to making such a financial mistake, stress, health, marriage difficulties, etc. Stop playing the siren song and be objective. We’re not at the bottom. Proof of the ridiculous prices is that Clark’s unit is appraised at 40% BELOW peak prices but is still above his pre-con price! Wow….he must have gotten in early, others bought from contract flippers and aren’t in such a position. My only caution to Clark is a condo is like a life boat, you wanna make sure the other owners are stable and rowing in the same direction otherwise it will be headaches, chaos, and eventually cannibalism…
For a more sober outlook, click on my name to watch prophet Roubini (but please disregard his statement about the presidential candidates, obviously he has been too busy with this financial crisis to review who is the best candidate – LOL).
Tom,
BB King is a Show Place/ Lounge/Grill/Nightclub. Sometimes the man himself plays there but there are a lot of other famous acts too.
People with money like you should go out and spend it once in a while (not those who put it on credit cards) and I don’t mean on Walmart TV dinners. The Walmart can withstand this downturn but a restaurant may not. You may help save the waiters job.
Good, then we have a consensus here. All investors are not created equal, all sales are not at 2006 peak and all buyers today are not morons. So Clark might have gotten a super deal by booking his flat really early. I am against those who booked more than 2 or 3 flats for investment purposes. They should not close or they will get burned. All others who snagged a great deal early on in 2004 for a primary residence should be OK to close and live in their unit.
the wildcard in the luxury buildings will be the HOA. a perfect example is emerald in brickell. great building and wonderful rooftop pool with a view. wanted to rent there a year ago but crazy landlord would not accept my offer-unit now still for rent $500 less a month than what i was willing to pay. saw some recent listings in the building (granted not the premium units) which were extremely low priced-but the HOA is around $1/sf and that is killing sales for the building. i imagine any other building with similar HOA will have the same problem. when you move from a $600 to $1200 a month HOA, you reduce over in $100k mortgage value. these new nice buildings with great amenities are going to struggle with this issue. emerald will show you what everglades, marina blue etc will face in the coming year. their pool of buyers continues to diminish.
i am still intrigued by Met 1 but have not heard much about the building. Lucas do you have any links to the building for sales, rentals, etc? right now there is a nice river/bay view from the building. across the street adjacent to the river exists a small sliver of land with some structure on it. does anybody know if a tall structure could be built there and eliminate the Met 1 direct views?
AJ said: “All others who snagged a great deal early on in 2004 for a primary residence should be OK to close and live in their unit.”
– It won’t look good this time next year. The HOA is indeed the wild card…will have to herd cats (that is other condo owners). Clark has a unit to live in, “appraises” (whatever that means) for more than his purchase price, and he is face with losing 15% of his deposit so let’s just say the decision point is if price there went down 20% more then that would be the same as walking away now. But again, HOA is the wild card. Moreover, someone who is about to close is a cheerleader and any comment should take that into consideration (a world traveler considers this building having the best amenities, how convenient). With that said, best wishes Clark, glad you are happy with your purchase and glad you will actually be living there.
clark, continue to keep us posted on your impressions as you move in, adjust, etc. tell both the good and bad–
Yes, I too would like to know more as it progresses Clark. I might even go take a look at that building too. I haven’t been into the buildings on Brickell yet…since want an on the beach condo (yes AJ, on the beach condos will do better than inland ones….we already know that, but again they may also be the most overpriced in the bubble too).
Restaurants are going to get slammed. Same goes for retail space in all those strip malls. Look for more empty windows. I haven’t looked at the luxury boat business but would suspect there is a downturn…anyone with updates on that area? Certainly that would affect condo demand with boat slips….
AJ,
Did your hear something about yesterday’s decision of the Miami city commision of the future of Worldcenter project (as announced in Miami Today)?
hahahah. I come to this blog for pure shaudenfreud. That is the only reason.
There is no such thing as a free lunch – you pay for all amenities. My opinion is to get the nicest building with the fewest amenities possible because I hate communal crap. It gets old and nasty and why pay for stuff you won’t use. I won’t be doing laps in the lap pool so why pay for that crap? You are paying for it if it has it.
I heard a rumor that condo prices will double within a few weeks of groundbreaking at the world center!!!
Visionary,
Same info as the article. No news about the results of the decision.
Clark,
Can you tell us all what is the price per SF that you paid pre – con and what is it appraised for? Thanks
I agree with that guy who says look for minimal bells and whistles in a building. I will also add look for a building which is managed better.
MB and Everglades may not be that bad even with all those amenities as the sheer number of flats and lofts will spread the expenses thin. Problem would be for a smaller building with fewer units and lots of bells and whistles.
Again you guys are missing the wood for the trees. Insurance makes up 60%-80% of the HOA depending on the building and the amenities. Cutting down on the amenities may not reduce your HOA that much.
Here is my question, The banks insist on full coverage or close to 80% coverage of the replacement cost before they can lend in a building. If they do not insist on this scam (Home insurance is the biggest scam in this country), the buildings can either self insure/ insure for less or have other options and cut the HOA by half or more.
Believe me. When this HOA gets out of hand, there will be a revolt. The banks are not lending no matter what. So why not drop this stupid coverage and save some money. In any case when the storm hits, they do not even pay up. Don’t you remember the Katrina aftermath in Mississippi when home owners got jacked for flimsy excuses?
Hyperinflation is around the corner, I am now changing my position.
I believe RT is wrong; we should all buy 3 condos ASAP.
–
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/20081023/usfd.pdf
–
(hyperbolic graph of Money supply courtesy of the FED of St.Louis)
It’s the money supply stupid.
I think Everglades was also pitched heavily to Mexican buyers. Not sure how Mexico is doing relative to the US and the world right now.
AJ,
I recent that snide comment on the Vue.
RT and I want to buy 10 each and become condo slum Lords.
–
🙁
Vue will soon become a government subsidized housing project. We discussed this already. Better decide if you are a crip or a blood. You need to affiliated with a gang for protection….I like blue. I guess that makes me a crip.
Muir – Your hyperinflation argument may be applicable to certain assets, Miami condos with the high carrying costs aren’t the best one.
AJ – You obviously have no clue about insurance whatsoever. Insurance is a contract, read it. It only insures thing that are in the contract and not what your vague concept of what you think it should cover. If your condo buildings self-insure I will laugh myself silly.
Before the bottom in real estate will be reached, two things will need to happen:
(1) That it will become more expensive to rent than to own. Easy mortgages (you didn’t even need to fog a mirror) lowered that barrier to homeownership entry so low there was none, no need to save up for a down payment. Currently, I rent for 1/2 price so condo prices have a long way to go. Moreover, people STILL have the absurd mentality that it is an OK investment even if you have to supplement your renter to cover costs (must be because of the “certainty” that home prices appreciate hahahaha).
(2) That people stop buying homes for “lifestyle” reasons. Buy this condo with XYZ amenities, feel special “I’m Good Enough, I’m Smart Enough, and Doggone It, People Like Me!”, etc. It is like the jacuzzi tube in the master bath, or the professional grade appliances that almost never actually get used. So silly. Condos and homes (communities as the marketers call them) based on some fantasy lifestyle living on borrowed money is funny.
Renter Tom /Oct 25, 2008 at 4:24 pm
“Muir – Your hyperinflation argument may be applicable to certain assets, Miami condos with the high carrying costs aren’t the best one.”
–
Fine, if you want tot be that way about it, I’ll buy all 20 myself.
You’ll see, AJ and I will be very rich.
I still think the Vue will still get to $-75 sq.
And in 3 year EACH will be worth $10M!
Of course, a loaf of bread will cost $673 and HOAs fees, well…, never mind about those, heck, I’ll all work out.
Really.
It’s called commodity fetishism renter tom. It’s quite an interesting concept. The best example I know of is those De Beers diamond commercials with the old lady and the old man….they show you this “great love” and for the 50th anniversary he buys her a diamond. They are dressed very cute and walking in a beautiful park….They sell the 50 year love, they sell the high end lifestyle…they do this so people like AJ and lala will buy diamonds….
Mark NZ – What is even odder is w.r.t. commodity fetishism here is that the people who “possess” these objects don’t really own them…. it is a fraud, a lie. They are living a lifestyle on debt, usually massive debt. They lease the status car, no money down on the luxury condo with premium view, credit card debt for jewelry, etc…..
I am a renter in the Mark on Brickell and I should tell you that the building is in a pretty poor shape, I do not how the Vue or the Club are and why the Mark is so high in the Condo Ranking made by Lucas, but it has a big problem with a huge amount of foreclosures and a very high rate of delinquent amount which the Board just confirmed that they are going to be bad debt ($1.2MM), so they will have to cut in services and amenities.
I am just lucky because I am renting and my contract is almost finished, but I think that this building, jointly with the Club, Vue and Courvoisier of Brickell Key (where I have a friend and he confirmed that they cutting in some basic stuff like cleaning) are going to be rat holes in a few years and they will be demolished in 15 years to leave space for a much nicer building.
Right now, there is too much offer, but if you discard the low quality buildings (almost 90% are so) the offer is not so big as it seems, in the next few years the demand will go for these condos and they will leave the other condos to painfully die (like the Club, Mark, Plaza, etc.)
“RENTER TOM” sounds like “RACIST TOM” to me.
I could be wrong but you spend way too much time worring about welfare mom’s
why don’t you take your high powered rifel (I know you’ve got one stashed somewhere) find a grassy knoll and start picking them off one by one.
get some help tom!
makes me think – ummmmm, who’s racist? I never said the welfare mom’s weren’t white??? Also, I don’t own a rifle you silly liberal. ha ha
ohhh, and whoever said I was white? Talk about racist and stereo typing “makes me think”.
makes me think – YOU called ME racist, which really is the most ridiculous thing you could call me if you actually knew me. Having libertarian leanings does not make one a racist nor does not supporting this made up character/brand called “Obama” either. Give it up, you are just plain wrong …and ignorant, which is the root of racism right. How silly….hahahahhaha
RT
You’re losing it son.
You even missed replying to a great post by Mr. Pragmatic.
So what if Obama is the next President.
Breath, relax boy.
It’ll be ok.
Really.
Just concentrate on being a Bear.
Oh, and if AJ wants to buy 3 more Miami condos….
Breath in…. breath out.
Deep breath.
Muir – I have to say, I am the optimistic sort, but have recently grown concerned about the macroeconomic troubles we are in. This is serious stuff now and anyone that wants to bury their head in the sand will get their rear end kicked. Oh, and don’t call me boy.
RT – I don’t mean to denigrate anyone on this board. I get a little fustrated when it seems like the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket yet all you seem to care about is those dumb welfare mom taking advantage of the system for a few hundred dollars. Where is your outrage for the harvard educated crooks on wall st. that swindled billions of dollars from the working stiffs. You should ask yourself why such visceral reaction to a few welfare moms getting over on a few dollars a month but not even a word about those crooks that stole billions maybe trillions from the everyday worker.
Face it, everyone gets outraged when they see people taking advantage of the system. I own rental properties so I know first hand about these welfare moms taking advantage of the system. I can also tell you that most of these welfare mom’s are required to attend some form of training and many are working. Some are grandmothers taking care of their grand kids on $8.50/hour. As a landlord I can’t rent a house to someone making even $10/hour much less someone making $8.50/hour w/3 kids. The welfare system is there to help supplement those people income so we don’t have kids going hungry or sleeping under bridges and begging/robbing turists for money or food. The system is not perfect but we accept that there will be a certain amount of waste. The welare system was reformed back in the 90’s by the Newt Gingrich congress. It was reformed to address the rampant abuses that took place. The system today is much better than you remember it. I have been fortunate enough to have been on both sides of the economic spectrum(bottom 5% and top 5% of earners) so I know the value of working hard for the american dream and the satisfaction that comes when you work for what you get. I also know that many who finally make it to the top will tell you they did it by themself but the truth is there was alwasys someone along the way to offer a helping hand.
RT -“libertarian leanings ”
Yes, that’s what I thought at first but then I listened some more, wating to hear some more about your ” libertarian leanings” you know, with all that’s going on with the economy and the government spending money on everything in sight ( funding 3 wars, and bailing out every domestic and foreign in sight and sending everyone rebate check) .
It like the government hit some kind of unlimited lottery. So yes I was waiting to hear your libertarian outrage but all I seem to hear you go on and on about is second hand info about welfare moms. I’ve even heard you bash charities like the ones trying to find a cure for brest cancer. Maybe RT you are one of those new libertarian, you know , the type that used to call themselves Republican before it became such a dirty word. you espouse the virtues of doing for self without the relying on the government yet when people get together to raise money to find a cure for brest cancer(without government help) you bash them. What kind of libertarian is that?
Yeah I think i’ll call myself a Libertarian to0, don’t want to be called a racist/sexist.
if it walks like a duck and quacks then I don’t care what it calls itself.
makes me think is insane. How is RT racist or sexist? I can tell you that I’m a whole lot sexy and racy. Oui la la!
“makes me think”,
wow, what a poinant plea. enough to melt the stoniest of hearts. I’m wiping away a tear as I type this. But it doesn’t take away from the fact that turning just one brickell condo tower into public housing will bring with it an element that will turn all of Brickell into a hellhole.
“just a few welfare moms cheat the system.” wow, what a great attitude. sounds a lot like the “just a few mortgages are fradulent” attitude. how has that worked out?
this is a blog about condos. take your self-righteous blathering to an obama rally.
Probably too Cynical – Who’s advocating turning brickell condos into public housing?
That’s crazy! Will they eventually turn into public housing is another topic that some might argue successfully. 4 more years of Bush/McCain policy and you could be living in the housing projects of the future. This is just the first leg in a series of cascading price declines in miami condos.
RT
“I have to say, I am the optimistic sort, but have recently grown concerned about the macroeconomic troubles we are in. This is serious stuff now and anyone that wants to bury their head in the sand will get their rear end kicked. Oh, and don’t call me boy.”
–
Now your concerned???!!!
—
—
What?, You thought it was rhetoric when I posted this earlier:
“AJ, Here’s the thing, after posting I looked over the following (just headlines in most cases)
IHT
BBC news
Asia Times
FT
The Economist
–
These are not fringe blogs about Miami condos.
Case Shiller isn’t a nut job.
–
In all sincerity, it could get really REALLY ugly, a lot worse than what you hint at.
–
Worldwide, nobody believes that things could not spiral out of total control very quickly in a matter of days if not hours. We are not talking about a “US recession” in this case.
Against this backdrop, some of the things you say sound like hubris; if you get really hurt I will not gleefully rejoice, on the other hand, if Jorge Perez goes bankrupt I will buy a bottle of clicquot and laugh myself silly.”
–
Guess at that time you thought your BIC idea would pan out.
And poo-pooed when I mentioned Iceland and that BIC or BRIC would fall like a brick.
–
Rhetoric aside son, this is not a dress rehearsal, it’s the real thing.
Probably too Cynical
–
“makes me think,” says truths, actually, as I have said here before: the greatest sense of entitlement are from the very rich.
I have family that served on Enron’s board, I know these people.
–
RT’s Horatio Alger beliefs are not rooted in reality. He points out somebody like Steve Jobs. Ok, an excellent example. But he does not mention the myriad of examples of hedge fund/vulture funds parasites.
–
But lets not go to extremes of the very rich or very poor.
Who bought most of these condos that are going into foreclosure?
–
The entire system STINKS to high heavens.
It’s sophomoric to point out just one part of the rotten corpse.
That’s my one (and seems to be the only) disagreement with RT (I’m certainly as bearish as he is, if not more.)
Finally, why on earth has someone not replied Mr. Pragmatic?
He’s the only one on topic.
mark, not zilbert, you know NOTHING about me. Do not include me in your ridiculous rants. In fact, go f*** yourself. You have single handedly taken the pleasure out of reading this blog.
And so have all the spelling and grammatical errors, where were you people educated? When you can’t write or spell correctly, you lose all credibility.
LA LA is right……………Mark is an A** HOLE and should be BANNED from this BLOG.He has NOTHING will NEVER have ANYTHING and just wates EVERYBODYS time on here.HE is just a DREAMER that probably lives in the projects himself.
LQQKS LIKE MARK (NZ) finally got told .He is making this VERY UNENJOYABLE for ALL who read this blog.IF everyboby just ignored him and didn’t reply…….maybe he would go away and bother people on another blog.
Mr. Pragmatic had an interesting post. I have been curious about Mark on Brickell. It was not built to the luxury as many other buildings, and appears to be a little older (more worn) than the new construction. I have seen some units on sale at quite a discount. Being directly on the water one would think it would hold its value, nevertheless i have had questions about the building. thanks for shedding some light on the issue. are the issues currently more of a minor nuisance, such as less cleaning of commons etc. or is it affecting amenities such as pool closed down for extended time. do you know the magnitude of any special assessments which have (or will be) made to cover the shortfalls?
Lucas thank you very much for bringing us such an informative R.E. Information blog.Over the past few months I has noticed a lost of RIFF RAFF posters on here that have been distupting views of others.I will continue to use your site as a helpful information tool.I hope that somthing can be done with some of the abusive posters on here soon.I’m sure there are others that share my beliefs. Thank you and keep up the good work.
Gables,
I looked at some units at Emerald last year but the HOA fees were just too high. The building was great but I can see how the high HOA fees would keep people from purchasing. It’s like a mortgage payment in itself! There certainly are some bargains in the building these days. Anyone know how the HOA is doing ? Last year the building looked great, was well kept and very high-end.
And one for the politicians on the blog:
“Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people…”
Didn’t this start around 1999 or so? No wonder home ownership reached some all time high during that time.
Muir – My concern is about the global financial system. Condos, since I don’t own one here, aren’t a “concern” per se, more just waiting for this thing to unwind so I can buy…prefer to own, but when renting is 1/2 price and there are a lot of HOA uncertainties, why be stupid and buy now? I don’t like being called “boy” or “son” (nor racist, I’m, not racist at all, but if I was who cares really since this isn’t a blog about race nor would I care about the PC police chasing phantom racial remarks)…do you? I am now concerned about the global financial system, previously it was under a “watch” now it is moved up to a “concern”. Increasing the actual supply of money should alleviate most of the short term concerns but leaves up devaluation concerns if that money is not drawn back out of the system as appropriate later. As I have previously mentioned, rents are tightly tied to incomes while with creative mortgage house prices were not during the bubble but will snap back to incomes. With that said, there aren’t enough people with high enough incomes to afford these condos (mortgage, taxes, HOA) and hence the only thing that can really come down significantly is mortgage payments…..do they now come up with 50 year mortgages? no. so, prices will need to come down….taxes “may” come down a bit and so may HOA dues, but the only thing that can come down a lot is the price since interest rates are so darn low already. As I have also mentioned, 4th Q 2008 is the quarter of capitulation….it is unfolding right before our eyes…
I noticed that Michael Capponi’s party at the Gansevoort Hotel’s is a big hit these days. Isn’t he supposed to have something going on at Ten Museum? Has he been involved with that building in any way or was it a promotional stunt?
I too thought Mr. Pragmatic had an interesting post.
This is going to drag out for a while.
There are too many people that are going to be living in these units for many months to come that are not going to be paying their HOA fees or mortgage.
–
More each day, I believe we could get close to a negative value on some of these condos.
Not all, just those with these types of problems.
Someone posted a while ago and poo-pooed the condos for $0
I now go one further, could some condo units have a negative worth?
Of course not all, just the ones like in Mr. Pragmatic’s post.
–
Mark,
I have been reading your posts for a while and they are simply disgusting and childish. Even when you change your name, your posts look and sound the same. Once in a blue moon when you do post something that looks intelligent, I remember reading it already on some bubble blog. So it is a basic cut and paste job that you do with out ever having a single original idea. The other times you are rude, insulting and use filthy language and sexual innuendos to describe others. I am a guy and I cringe when I read your posts. What upsets me the most is those people that actually reply to you and give you the respect and legitimacy. I find them more reprehensible than you. There are a few people who give you the light of the day, I will not name them but they know who they are. If they ignore you, hopefully a pest like you will go away or may be we have to use a riddex on this blog to get rid of vermin like you. I am a housing bear but you are not helping us or our cause one bit by your rants. As you have been told by many decent people to mend your ways but you ignored all of them, there is no point in appealing to your senses anymore.
I am asking all right thinking people on this blog to ignore this virus and do not reply to his posts or even acknowledge him by addressing him or his post. Renter Tom, please take note. I had to mention your name as you legitimise this guy more than anyone else in this blog, there by reducing your own stock. Peace.
From what I understand the Mark is one of the first (if not first) project built by Related in Miami. It turned out to be an exercise on how not to do things- from design, to construction, and so on… ALLEDGEDLY (covering my ass) there have been construction issues including spalling and mold problems…again I say alledgedly. I heard this from someone who owned in the building. When we were purchasing, we looked there and were warned about special assessments being tapped to cover the HOA fees they were not able to collect on from foreclosed units. We turned our tail and ran.
djr – Oh, OK…thanks for the warning, I’ll sure take that to heart, not. Thanks, but we already have a Miami Police Department on patrol. I will legitimize who I want when I want. There are several Marks on this blog…which one are you talking about?
Suit yourself. Birds of the same intellectual level flock together.
hi does anyone have any info on what the met 1 prices were at pre-construction? im very interested in buying in the 8-10 line in the next year or two when the prices come down. any chance these units will sell in the mid $300s psf? has anyone heard of the quality of this building? there hasnt been much talk about it….
A quote from another really good blog in CA (glad to be a renter and in cash…):
“I was having a conversation about current events and the massive deleveraging we are witnessing globally and I realized something rather remarkable: most residents of California have seen their new worth decline 40% or more over the last 2 years. Think about that for a moment. The California median home price is down 40% according to the California Association of Realtors. Since houses are almost always hugely leveraged, many homeowners have lost all the net worth they once had as equity in their houses. The stock market is more than 40% down in the last year. Anyone invested in the market either directly or through their retirement plans is down 40%. Stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and currencies: nearly every asset class is down, and down big. The only group that has not seen a huge decline in their net worth has been renters who are mostly in cash.”
– Just be glad Miami is in CA….
la la
that all may be true…but, and i know you don’t care about this, the talent level in that building was amazing a few years back. every hot sales associate who was “selling” condos for brickell projects lived there.
okay, in all seriousness, the building and units are quite unimpressive and are aging fast. some of the older brickell buildings look considerably better compared to this building. and you can drop the “allegedly.” i know three folks that own in there and there’s nothing but trouble (mainly plumbing).
Credit is something you “earn”….. click my name for video. We’re going back to this. 🙂
Try this instead.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLoJzRl-p0M
Glad to see that others recognize RT for the person he is. Enough said.
And what is that Inside Bob? A smart money guy who doesn’t want people to make huge financial mistakes and is banking cash by renting at half the price of owning without the headaches? Heck, I even posted a video on credit that should harken back to your time Inside Bob.
The housing market is what it is, why shoot the messenger. Most people that contribute to the blog aren’t the 10 condo flippers who have flopped. Several bought into the mania and made purchases during the bubble, some did so imprudently while others just bought one for themselves. It is a terrible market that is for sure. Like advice I gave someone in late fall 2006 looking to buy in one of the bubble markets at a 20% off peak prices…the market should go flat for a number of years, afterall the worst thing that can really happen is that it goes down 50%, and if that happens then we’re all in trouble and that may be the least of your worries. Well, I was wrong, these things can go down by more than 50%. Fortunately my friend’s place hasn’t gotten hit too bad, maybe down 20% at the most since he bought it, but we’re still all in trouble…. Let’s all hope this stuff stabilizes soon to help minimize the pain for everyone involved.
“afterall the worst thing that can really happen is that it goes down 50%, and if that happens then we’re all in trouble and that may be the least of your worries.”
If housing goes down another 50% that would actually be a pretty good resolution to the RE market. The housing supply would get readily absorbed across the board then we can get back into the normal cycle of new home constructions with new common sense regulations in place.
The worst thing in the world wouldn’t be a 50% drop, the worst would be half-ass govt. bandaids thrown at the housing problem which draws out a 2 year crash to a 10 year slow death in housing where people are sitting on the sidelines forever while properties stagnate and get lost in the courts. The govt. won’t be able to subsidize housing in the longterm, so all they can do is temporarily flatten the crash curve and just draw out the process to nobody’s betterment.
The best cure for any bubble is to let the market crash and flush out the speculators. The more Govt. tries to “help” by artificially propping up assets are artificial levels, the worse everybody is off in the long run.
JL
spot on
Miami Herald
Posted on Fri, Oct. 24, 2008
Miami Worldcenter project moves ahead one step
Developers of Miami Worldcenter, the nine-block project proposed for downtown Miami, are one step closer to winning city approval.
Miami commissioners voted unanimously Thursday to approve a rezoning that establishes new design requirements for buildings, sidewalks and public places on the Park West land. The project — led by Art Falcone, Marc Roberts and Nitin Motwani — is slated to go before city commissioners Nov. 13 for a final vote on each item.
JL – My statement about 50% decline was in fall 2006, a bit before the substantial declines were on the radar of 99%+ of people. Also at the time I had not studies the bubble markets and since then I am astonished at what happened regarding lending and people’s willingness to just suck out all the equity….and of course the rampant fraud. Everything happens at the margin so a little fraud here (buyer, seller, mortgage broker), a little over HELOCing there, a little bit of foreigners stiffing the system and leaving the country, a little bit of over optimism among the ratings agencies, all combine to have big effects. There is a global recession afoot now. Major equipment purchases (and hence production) are falling off a cliff like MEW’s. Volvo just came out with numbers and in the last quarter they only booked 115 orders for heavy trucks, down from 41,970 trucks a year earlier. Basically, if you don’t need to buy something big, why do it now, just wait and see.
I am concerned and will have contingency plans in place. Federal government spending is going to go through the roof.
Visionary – I’m sure these guys want to lock in the most favorable zoning possible…doesn’t mean a darn thing will get built however. Get the rezoning locked in now while the city is desperate to give you what you want.
On another topic.
Would anyone here be interested in my observations of Coral Gables condos?
10 Aragon, Ponce Towers, Puerta de Palmas….?
Did not post as I was unsure whether anyone had any interest, but I did see these as they were being built and have been inside since and know the financial situation in some HOAs and ….
would you assholes stop bitching at each other you’re ruining the blog. i cant even come here to get information anymore, all i see is a few idiots unsuccessfully trying to convince a few other idiots that they are right. just drop it, you’re like little girls, nobody is going to say “oh well ‘don’t buy now guy’, you are absolutely right, i don’t know how i’ve been advocating buying”…some of us actually want to use this blog for information, not a pissing contest
Are you a HENRY…how many condos were to be bought by HENRYs but won’t if they get hit with higher taxes? On top of dramatic price declines, stock market declines, and the credit crunch for mortgages, now the HENRYs (the future “rich”) are going to have their wealth skimmed off the top making it even harder to get to that next level…at some point some people at the margin will just give up being superacheivers to have their money go to the govt to spend and borrow recklessly.
money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0810/gallery.tully_henrys.fortune/index.html
met man – simmer down….simmer down……your complaint is a tad late.
One problem is I don’t know which Mark people are complaining about…..like the SNL skit says….simmer down now, simmer down. 🙂
And now to completely kill the condo market….let’s just take their wealth…
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/27/radio-interview-obama-laments-lack-supreme-court-ruling-redistributing-wealth/
“The interview — conducted by Chicago Public Radio in 2001, while Obama was an Illinois state senator and a law professor at the University of Chicago — delves into whether the civil rights movement should have gone further than it did, so that when “dispossessed peoples” appealed to the high court on the right to sit at the lunch counter, they should have also appealed for the right to have someone else pay for the meal.”
– Don’t we already have food stamps and with a lot of obese people in “poverty”? I think we’ve paid for a heck of a lot of lunches already.
As some of you may know, CA is getting hammered on real estate probably worse than Florida and CA is a non-recourse purchase mortgage state. If you want to see a truly jaw dropping chart on CA foreclosures that will make you think… see:
http://
1.bp.blogspot.com/_QMoXJ8fOgo4/SQXII4YGaOI/AAAAAAAAD5s/C1RnW53YuMQ/s1600-h/foreclosure08q3.png
Or just click my name….
RT’s last post gives new meaning to “off the chart”.
Lucas
when are you getting a tour of Icon? I’ve spoken to a few folks who have been inside. mixed reviews. when I look at the building from far away, i’ll concede and admit it does look somehat nice. tet up close though, and those 500k one bedrooms don’t look very appealing (the corner units look like they might be cool). and how the hell will you ever park your car in a 1,600 unit building. this project is madness. it will either be a success or go down as the ultimate sign of the insanity of the boom time.
Muir,
I would like to know your thoughts about coral gables condos. i am familiar with some of them and from what i see they are nice. not extravagant like the new brickell highrises but classy and livable until recently (my understanding more young college kids are moving into many new buildings in brickell, coral gables and coconut grove thus changing the atmosphere). i have no idea about the HOA situation so if you have info please pass it along. i am interested in buying either brickell or coral gables in the coming year(s). several opened or are in the process right now-bad timing curious how the sales/resales are going.
Sure Gables!
Not all were bad!
–
10 Aragon:
Originally it was to be a rental apartment building.
And, the units sure look like it! Imagine the poorest off- the- shelf baths, rugs etc. from Lowes and you have it.
It wins the trophy for the sh*tiest balconies EVER. The divider between one unit and the adjoining balcony is some sort of flimsy aluminum/plastic. (I wish I were kidding, I’m not)
To believe that these units sold at hight for 725K id to understand just how much fraud there was.
The broker said some units were beautifully upgraded.
It would be hard to mask the original design of these units: rentals, yet even if you gutted the place, what do you end up with?
$700+ HOAs, balconies that you share with the neighbors next door as if you were living in a slum or Rio.
Abysmal.
–
Gables, I’ll do one or two at the time.
By far this was the biggest letdown of all I looked and I did have some interesting finds.
–
p.s. Would also love to hear from others on things I’ve never looked at (downtown)
Sound familiar…
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jc5Q3p7GaxwmA6-CxeHm-PzA13pQD9430HHO1
Puerta de Palmas. (888 Douglas)
–
First, I always try to deal with the broker that represents the owner.
I did so in this case.
I find I get the best deals that way, but I can see where an honest broker could be of help to others if they can find one.
Lucas seems to be one, as this blog demonstrates.
The building is not sold out and builder is willing to rent unsold units. In fact, all rental agreements have a 4 month window for the builder to sell the unit and then the lease agreement becomes null.
I looked at what I considered were the best: the corner 2/2s in the top floor which face outwards. These have a label with a “PH” prefix but are otherwise identical to lower units.
3 corners were 2/2s and you can see the Ocean from the 16th.
Their 16th floor is higher than the other 16 floor condo close by (902 Ponce, Gables Park Tower. I did own there at one time.) I have no idea how they did that.
Small balcony, very close to adjoining one and the one above, and the view somewhat limited. The finish was ok.
Summary: No luxury.
$800+ HOAs. I have the price sheet somewhere, I’d have to dig it up.
Verdict: Not an investment. And even though the trolly is close by, doesn’t seem to be worth the $300-400 price per sq asking if you intend to live there.
–
Gables and others,
It seems that older high-rises knew more about “luxury.”
Where I lived years ago, diagonally 100 meters away, there were 4 units per floor, all facing a different compass point, underground parking that was easily accessible, sometimes I would not see a neighbor for months. Where is the privacy which to me is a “luxury” item in this 888 Douglas monstrosity?
–
If I offend anyone that lives in that building, that is not my intention, rather I am just reviewing the building as a possible investment/ living quarters.
Muir,
Thanks for the info. I considered both of those buildings to be your average residential structures under normal circumstances. The HOA should limit large turnover in rentals so control of residents should be maintained. Not too much in luxury items so the HOA fees should be manageable. With the current financial crisis not sure if those assumptions still hold.
I have seen prices plummet in both Aragon and Puerta de Palmas over the past year. 2B units are now going for under $300k. Curious how far you think they will fall? I do not think they will fall below Brickell condos, but my thought is that somewhere in the neighborhood of under $250k will make the units move. Any other thoughts on how Coral Gables and Coconut Grove condos will fair in comparison to Brickell?
It isn’t just condo HOA’s that are taking a hit, so are golf communities. Looks like those expensive amenities do have their drawbacks especially if others (owners, banks, etc.) become unwilling to pay.
money.cnn.com/2008/10/24/news/economy/florida_golf_courses.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008102413
Gables,
You’re welcome.
–
I have 6+ other condos in the area to review if others express interest (including on condominium that works!)
–
But let’s answer your questions.
That is to say, I will endeavor to give my most honest opinions based on first hand observations.
–
You state:
“The HOA should limit large turnover in rentals so control of residents should be maintained. ”
If the building is still under the builder’s control he will not allow these changes to the by-laws. (Which usually requires a super-majority anyways, and even if the builder were out of the way, would not be easy to pass. Yes, a board could pass a resolution, but if I were an owner and it suited me, I would disregard it. Board actions do not supersede the governing docs or FL statutes; though many persons on boards believe that they do and may even challenge this post.)
The builder needs all the money he can get from those units he rents which he then uses to buy time to see if he can sell some other units.
Example: 3232 Coral Way (Gables Marquis) Some units are rented to a College student who then brings in 3 other friends. This was confirmed by the concierge there. This condo is running a monthly deficit into the 10s of thousands.
–
“Not too much in luxury items so the HOA fees should be manageable. With the current financial crisis not sure if those assumptions still hold.”
You would think so. But they charge 57 cents a square foot at 10 Aragon and 60 cents at 888 Douglas. HOAs at $720-$800.
Add taxes at 22 mills on units still assessed at 350-450K and an investor has a nut of $1300+ for taxes and HOAs without a mortgage!
Rentals are, as I am sure you know, dropping as fast as rents.
Currently I think I could get my pick for about $1800, but in 6 months I would expect it would be less.
–
“Curious how far you think they will fall? I do not think they will fall below Brickell condos, but my thought is that somewhere in the neighborhood of under $250k will make the units move.”
Let’s answer the easy part first. Yes, today condos under $250k will move. Although there are, I just checked before continuing to write, 4 condos under 300K that are 2/2s.
The question for me is not what moves these units today, but rather, what will prices end up at?
Fall below Brickell condos?
Let me be specific. Puerta de Palmas lower than the Vue? No.
As low? Probably not. But close. Let’s be real; this on the corner of 8th Street and Douglas. I tried to be fair when I wrote about it earlier; there just isn’t that much “luxury” there. Would someone buy at $250K in a heartbeat today? Absolutely!
But with the $1300 before a mortgage nut, are they making a wise decision?
As to your specific question, “how low can they go?” the general state of the World economy will answer that. If the FED can’t inflate the bubble one more time, honestly I do not see a floor; $125 / ft? Who knows. On the other hand if hyper-inflation rolls around, I have no idea. What happened to condo prices in Argentina during theire bouts with hyper-inflation? Anybody know?
–
Thoughts on how Gables condos will fare over Brickell?
–
I think I’ll surprise some with my answer.
Long term, 8-10 years out, some units in the Brickell / downtown area will do great, much better than the Gables, look at the guy that wrote that he is closing on the Everglades after looking at it. If we are talking about true luxury, I think they all missed the mark in the Gables. Could there be good buying opportunities in either location within a year? Yes, of course. That’s what I am preparing for.
Renter Tom,
Dont play the effing innocent game here. You know excatly which Mark I am talking about. It is the same weasel that changes names ever so often. Go back and see the past back and forth between you two dumbheads who formed some kind of a mutual admiration society here.
Sometime back someone suggested that you guys may be the paid pimps of some condo vulture firm. I didnt believe it and thought it was far fetched. But the more I think, the more I am being convinced that there is something not adding up with your story.
Can a single person in this blog believe the story of Renter Tom? If so can they come forward and vouch for this guy? A 35 year old retired multi millionnaire living in a rented hovel in Sunny Isles with no social life what so ever, spending 18 hours a day and 7 days a week (every waking minute) monitoring this blog and swiftly replying to every post that appears? Something is not right here. a) If this guys story is true, he is really a nut case. Some kind of a Frankenstein. b) Or the guy may be just a college kid being paid by some Condo Vulture firm to spread some misinformation and fear. I absolutely do not believe that unless someone is a mental case or being paid to do so, they will not be sitting and monitoring this blog, post a reply to each and every poster every waking minute of their life.
djr – Are you AJ? Wow, talk about mean spirited…and childish just like what you complained about with one of the Mark’s. Maybe you should get with the program and learn about new technology grumpy gramps…no social life, now that is funny… You must be losing your shirt in this market for having so much anger…I’m sorry to hear about your misfortune but don’t take it out on me. I just call it like I see it, nothing more, nothing less. And as far as paranoia about a vulture fund paying someone to post the reality of the market, I really don’t think that is necessary since the banks aren’t readily lending and if you had read my posts you’d know I have no interest in being a residential property landlord…buy a stock in a company that runs apartment complexes would be a much better deal since it is liquid and no management hassles. Until rents are more than the cost of owning, we haven’t hit bottom. So, if an area is 1/2 price to rent then prices will need to come down 50%. Peace, love and joy buddy…from your friend Frankenstein. hahahahaha
More bad news, not surprising, just bad.
The Case-Shiller Home Price 20-city index has a year over year decline of 16.6% with:
“The hardest hit of all 20 cities was Phoenix, where prices plummeted 30.7% during the past 12 months. Las Vegas prices plunged 30.6% and Miami sank 28.1%.”
With what is a 30% drop over the last year (not including the drops before the last year) how many people are now underwater in Miami, in Miami Condos? Nationally, 1/2 the homeowners own without a mortgage and the other half have a mortgage. I think it would be a fair guess to say 1/2 of the homeowners with a mortgage may be underwater which would mean 25% of homeowners overall…underwater, so what, if you’re not moving, already have a low fixed rate mortgage, weren’t depending on a HELOC in the next 2 years, why worry? If it was an “investment” property, not a shelter….there is cause for concern especially for investors dependent on flipping. 50% off from peak pricing is not unreasonable for a bottom.
Took a tour this past wknd just out of curiosity…….really all I can say is WOW…..over the top in every aspect…from the amenities to the size…massive (1,700 units)…got tired just walking around the place….feels like you’re in some kind of south beach surrealistic dream….you walk into the drop off area with different painted warriors (sculputre heads 12 feet high) so you know this isn’t your typical Miami condo project. Next you go into the lobby filled with yellow light (filtered from outside) with artistic Phillipe Starcke furniture strangely placed everywhere….looks cool, but functional? Probably not….Went up thru the common areas and to see a few units…finishes are some of the nicest I have ever seen…white marble everywhere in halls….french limestone for countertops, lots of floor to ceiling glass everywhere…stunning views….next checked out the amenities…huge infinity pool designed after Champs-Élysées in Paris…; spa is the nicest and largest I have seen anywhere, period…and everything done in the artsy white on white style. Pretty cool overall, but think will have trouble….I can see a small boutique building done in this style but 1,700 units? I think they’re really narrowing their market by this “over the top” style. Prices? Still ridiculous. 1 bedrooms in the 400,000s. Yeah, right..might buy a unit there for high two’s or low 300K.
Thank you for the tour. Nice.
Muir and Toured Icon great info! Keep up the good work. Thanks.
djr /Oct 28, 2008 at 1:44 am Vote: Add rating Subtract rating
“Renter Tom,
Dont play the effing innocent game here. You know excatly which Mark I am talking about. It is the same weasel that changes names ever so often. Go back and see the past back and forth between you two dumbheads who formed some kind of a mutual admiration society here.
Sometime back someone suggested that you guys may be the paid pimps of some condo vulture firm. I didnt believe it and thought it was far fetched. But the more I think, the more I am being convinced that there is something not adding up with your story.
Can a single person in this blog believe the story of Renter Tom? If so can they come forward and vouch for this guy? A 35 year old retired multi millionnaire living in a rented hovel in Sunny Isles with no social life what so ever, spending 18 hours a day and 7 days a week (every waking minute) monitoring this blog and swiftly replying to every post that appears? Something is not right here. a) If this guys story is true, he is really a nut case. Some kind of a Frankenstein. b) Or the guy may be just a college kid being paid by some Condo Vulture firm to spread some misinformation and fear. I absolutely do not believe that unless someone is a mental case or being paid to do so, they will not be sitting and monitoring this blog, post a reply to each and every poster every waking minute of their life.”
LOL
Nicely put, djr. I could not agree more.
I’d have to see it first but it sounds like found a new favorite building in Miami. Thanks for the tour info.
While Icon does sound impressive I cannot imagine living in an apartment building with 1600+ units. It sounds like a logistical nightmare to me. Thoughts?
Im back ! Have been watching the leaves change color in Vermont but this morning in Miami was sweeeeeet at 55 degrees F. Any good news around?
When do closings start @ Icon?
Wow, If you miss reading this blog for a couple of days, you have 100+ posts to catch up. I was in DC visiting my friend.
I will just reply to Renter Tom. Why do you call me mean when you have no clue about anything at all? It is like taking punches in the dark expecting to hit someone. We have a lot of disagreements and everyone knows that. I can call you names openly without having to hide. You should just get a clue that there are many people on this site who think very less of you while there are also many for whom you are a hero. Maybe the guy who is critical of you is a home owner or realtor or a developer or just someone who is tired of your posts. In any case, the guy has a valid point. Are you really 35 and retired with 5-6 million dollars in the bank and your entire life happens to be this blog? Do you have a girl friend? boyfriend? any friend at all? a pet? a family to visit or a visiting family member? I am actually feeling bad. I like to invite you to come and share the Thanksgiving Dinner with my family in New York. I don’t want you to be alone and eating a TV dinner on that day. Seriously.
Toured
thanks for the review of icon. i’m looking forward to seeing a few 2/2s there (won’t be buying but always like going along with my friends to see what mistake they’re about to make).
i was actually driving downtown at luncthime today. the bridge was up on brickell heading into downtown (always at 12…amazing), creating a massive backup. just imagine the traffic nightmare that will come about once, icon, 500, plaza, epic and the other nearby projects eventually fill up.
WHERE ARE YOU RENTER TOM???
Grand Opening of Icon Brickell is scheduled to be Nov 3rd and I assume closings will begin thereafter. Related also says there are no resales currently; only after the units close…
Jcrimes said “i was actually driving downtown at luncthime today. the bridge was up on brickell heading into downtown (always at 12…amazing), creating a massive backup. just imagine the traffic nightmare that will come about once, icon, 500, plaza, epic and the other nearby projects eventually fill up.”
I wrote about this impending scenario one year ago. No one paid much mind. Now a lot of people are seeing it for what it is.
A Japanese Corporation has purchased Miami Center, one of Miami’s most prominent buildings for $260MM. Will this have any effect on Condo prices in the area?
Zilbert is losing a lot of money on this studio he purchased at Setai for which he paid 700K. He tried before to sell it before for 650K then for 599K and now for 549K. I wonder if he would ever find a buyer even for 499K. So even a “smart” realtor got carried away and lost his shirt on the back. Or maybe not. The loss must be just one of the obscene commissions he made from one of the scores of SOFI deals he struck in 05 or 06. This is his offer-
“I have a personal unit in the ultra-luxurious Setai Hotel. This is an unprecedented deal. I paid almost $700,000 for it, but will sell it for $549,000 (I am basically giving up all my equity to make this deal happen). It generates about $36,000 a year in NET revenue. So, you have a stunning studio suite for personal use that generates revenue while you are away. It’s the best of both worlds. If you purchase this unit now, you will benefit from the winter’s high hotel rates, up to $1150 per night. Also, hotel occupancy is generally sold out for the Art Basel, New Year and other festivals. Why so cheap? Well, I am raising capital for a new venture, and I am selling-off certain assets. HOWEVER, I will only honor this price for CASH buyers who can close IMMEDIATELY (but no later than 30 days). Brokers welcome (M1211221).”
He gave the 30 day deadline threat twice before. Is he threatening to reduce the price further if someone does not pick up this condo in 30 days? LOL
All eye’s & ear’s – Why did you miss me? I just got in from the beach for a bit. Beautiful day albeit a tad cool. Heading back out in a few but was my turn for the condo beer run.
To all the haters, don’t hate me because I’m right, hate me because I rent and you own…
Soooo funny…..hahahahaha
funny how renter tom decides to throw in a nonchalant comment about drinking beer on the beach with his friends after everyone starts grilling him about being a huge tool.
tom, please do us a favor and stop posting before the board goes completely nuclear and i’m forced to gouge out my eyeballs with a chizzle.
back to my original question…does anyone have info on met 1?
AJ
don’t worry AJ, i’ll throw you some props for being omniscient!
in all seriousness, it is a complete nightmare. couple this with the fact that brickell ave is not a very pedestrian friendly street to begin with and you’re now staring at a massive condo canyon with a parking lot in the middle. i’m legitimately terrified about the massive congestion that’s facing me due to the ridiculous best buy project that’s going up on 5th street on the beach and the influx of traffic on biscayne/brickell. seriously, we’ll be ATL in no time. but, like i said before, give me a loft at epic on the cheap and all is forgiven.
met man – Please do me a favor and go nuclear. I was on the beach twice both before my post and just got back in again. Beautiful sun but the breeze made it a tad cool with few people on the beach. There were five of us, with two who left early. We drank both domestic and imported beers. I had three over a period of about five hours. I’m sorry you are a condo loser so why are you trying to impute your qualities to me? I pointed out what I was doing today since you and whatever other names you post under were dissing me without knowing anything at all. I normally wouldn’t bother with someone completely mischaracterizing me but hey, I figured you were at work so why not let you know I wasn’t.
Jcrimes,
Epic will not get affected that much by the impending traffic nightmare. If you are north of the bridge, you are pretty safe. 90% of what you need including south beach, downtown, shopping, airports, art, culture and entertainment is north of the bridge. So it is a major problem for 500, Icon, Plaza etc but Epic, Met, 50, Everglades, One Miami will be kind og OK, me thinks.
Muir,
Do you have any info on 55 Merrick? Its new and looks nice from the outside. wondered what the status of the building and units were? Thanks
The Miami Beach luxury condo market has held up quite well yet the tide is turning. The only reason it has done so well where the rest of Miami and FL has done so poorly is that it is a very unique location and waterfront condos are very desirable. Yet with the stronger dollar and the collapse of the stock market the luxury market has dried up. Prices are going drop big time you wait and see. Just look at this one data point. It has taken 16 days to add a 100 new condos listing in Miami over $500k yet it has taken 85 days to sell 100 condos in Miami over $500k. With an already high inventory what will that do to the market. Only one thing can happen. Prices will have to go through a major correction yet greedy sellers will hold their prices high as long as they can so this will take some time to play out.
I know this is not what sellers or real estate agents want to hear but you can’t dispute the facts.
[…] pretty meaningless to compare this month’s update to previous ones. However, here is the last update published in October 2008 if you’d like to compare the raw numbers. addthis_url = […]