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Wow, amazing job as always!
The video shot should use a wider angle lens and the panning shots should slow down a bit. Can the video shots make more sharp?
Lucas,
Great “Out of the Box” thinking. Pictures AND VIDEO. What’s next… buying real estate with the click of a mouse!? Keep up the great work!
David
I had never been inside Villa Regina, but this video makes it look really nice.
I would much rather buy/rent a new building. This one looks a little dilapidated.
Bubba, I would much rather be in a solid building with the quality and care that older construction entails, rather than the shoddy work of new construction where “what’s the cheapest way we can build it” is the bottomline-spoken with an insider’s voice. Plus the default rate and no condo association established yet…VR is a gem that is well maintained.
Yes, I’d rather be with an established building that has gone through its “hiccups” rather than a shoddy new construction that has yet to show it’s “hiccups.” Did that in Chicago with River East, it hurt. Never again.
LA LA,
Wait till you get blasted with assessments in these older buildings …………
i am being blasted actually, price per square foot, it evens out. i plan to get on the board in december and see what the real deal is and how my money is being spent. i’m still happier in an older, solid, spacious building.
La La, You dont have to get on board to see how your money is being spent. I go to my condo management office when ever I am in Miami and demand to see each and every bid, contract, expenditure sheet etc.
If anyone does not comply or co-operate, I take them to task, including the management and the board. I am a tough ass MOFO, so it comes easy to me. I dont know if you can push your board/management to reaveal all, if you are a softy and dont know what you are talking about.
Well put AJ, and that’s what I’m afraid of, I’m not a “tough ass MOFO” – wish I was! Any advice will be duly noted and appreciated. I’ve read with interest when you’ve wrote about this in the past- at least I think it was you. But yes, I do need to be educated first, maybe I’ll get that “education” by being on the board.
la la – I had looked in the Chicago area too. Which building did you say you had problems with? River East??? Couldn’t find that exact name right away. Also, just curious as to what the problems were. Thanks.
I’m with Bubba. I’d buy a smaller space in a newer building. This building looks old. The special assessment will be huge (I just paid $170,000 in my 40 year old building).
And from the “video directors’ peanut gallery”, as good as these videos are, many potential buyers won’t have the patience to sit through them- these last too long- and the soft porn audio should be updated.
JMHO
Bill – What about the sexy voice? LOL
Renter Tom! Where’ve you been? Haven’t heard from you in awhile! I own at River East on the corner of McClurg and Grand. It’s the same old sorry story, we were promised the moon and the stars and the sun too(!) including an indoor tennis court!
The realtor said anything to get us to sign on the line, lied through her teeth on quality of finishes, amenities, square footage, percentage sold- if we didn’t sign right that minute we would lose the deal of a lifetime! Turns out it was about 60% sold, not the 99% she said.
Once we moved in, there were just a myriad of little things, our punch list was 2 pages long…this was 8 years ago- the details fade. It was just so cheaply constructed. Shall I go on? Bottomline, I will never buy something without seeing it first again.
And I will tolerate the special assessments. I’ll bitch up a storm, but I’ll pay ’em.
Folks, we are probably looking at 6% headline inflation in a matter of months. What is that going to do to the miami real-estate market? Assuming mortgage rates hit 10% in this inflation cycle, what is going to happen to real estate values then my friends?
Actually, inflation is real estate best friend…Hard assets will rise in value as purchasing power decreases…Your fixed monthly payments will be effectively reduced..
folks. take it easy. You have the ring side view of the blood spewing out of south florida real estate and you have Lechuga religiously showing it to you…chill, have a martini. The bottom in miami is far far away.
I hear that Alt-A/Prime foreclosures are now spiking up…So far we have had US bust…But the water in Thames (UK) is churning fast…Spain/Ireland are rushing to catch up..and those emerging BRICs are metling up fast…
…. and also an asteroid is heading our way to obliterate every form of life on Earth too.
CA, that is exactly what I have been trying to tell everyone. When inflation makes your money worthless, your real estate becomes a valueble asset. Inflation is a bigger threat than recession.
I don’t think inflation is running even close to the rate of South Florida real estate price declines. There are other places to store wealth such as midwest farm land. Also, typically, with higher inflation comes higher interest rates (usually). Don’t put your money into a declining asset since that will just compound the effects of inflation since the sale price will be in dollars eroded by inflation too. So, AJ, you may want to revisit your analysis. Don’t want to pick on you about that post but the analysis is incorrect. Other than that, I do enjoy reading your posts.
You borrow in todays dollars and interest…if there is 20% inflation in 1 year you have just reduce 20% of your loan in a year (incrase your principal by 20%) and made 20% in interest each month (assuming interest rate spikes up 20%) on your fixed locked -in interest payments for whatever their term is (5, 10 years…). Does it make sense ?
CA – I understand. But inflation will most probably not be anywhere near 20%. Moreover, one of the top rules in financial well being is to not borrow money on a declining asset. You do so at your own peril. Moreover, why not buy a piece of land that isn’t declining in value versus a condo in South Florida that will. The bottom line is there are so many better places to put your money that a condo in South Florida isn’t one of them.
Renter Tom,
Where is a good place to buy a piece of land ?
This is a great article — I learned alot, and am interested in what the tech-experts (e.g., Lucas, Jcrimes, Renter Tom, BFG, CarbonBlackCab, AJ, et. al) think of the practice of direct buyers of mortgages on an institutional and individual level. Is this where the vultures have been moving on lately, while they let the bulk-condo market sit idle? Apologies to Samir in advance for being off-topic, but regardless of the byline, we end up talking about the same issues anyway…
Kim
You’ll see it happen at the instituional level . Lenders are packaging loan portfolios to aggressive investors who will then do the dirty work, i.e., foreclose.
However, on the residential side, banks’ policies are generally that they will not sell you a specific loan. They’ll give you the loan as part of a portfolio but never on its own.
after today’s crappy employment number (would’ve been much worse if the gvmt doesn’t massage the numbers by handing out the most jobs every month to offset job losses in almost every sector) and the past 2 days of incomprehensible oil spikes -($5/gallon gas for super is here), our country is now officially right in the dumpster!
can’t have 8 years of TOTAL mismanagement at almost every single level of the government/economy and think we were going to cheat the beating we are all about to feel.
…i guess we’ll go hat in hand again and kiss every other country’s butt to see if they can help us even more. this HAS to be the most pathetic state this country has been in for probably close to 30 years. such a shame….
Maybe the poor employment numbers is due to all the condo HOA’s laying off workers….I knew they were pretty bloated and wasteful but wow…. LOL 🙂
I think the key quote in the article Kim posted is this one:
“Just because somebody’s debt is selling at 60 or 70 cents on the dollar doesn’t necessarily make it a good deal,” Benaroya said. “For instance, if you had a $200,000 mortgage on a house that’s now worth $100,000 and you go buy that debt for 70 cents [on the dollar], you’ve just lost money.”
If it was such a good deal buying debt at a discount, foreclosing, and flipping the property, then why don’t the companies who currently own the debt do that very thing themselves rather than letting someone else profit from it?
I’m not saying there isn’t money to be made buying defaulted mortgages. Just that it is, as a potential investor, important to ask yourself that question. In this market, buying debt at 50% of face value when the underlying collateral may only be worth 50% of face value is a big money-loser. Especially considering that it will likely take you a year to get possession of the property. Meanwhile, you will be responsible for all the holding costs until then (HOA, taxes, legal fees, etc).
At an institutional level, this practice may make some sense, since they can absorb or offset some of the risk. At the individual level, it sounds too risky. And as the article stated, regulation may limit it to institutional investors, anyways.
Fidelity Investments is starting a new round of layoffs. This is a major employer in Massachusetts.
Cyrus…I think it’s more like 16 years of mismanagement.
I have been weaiting for 3+ years to buy a place in Miami and will definately purchase if the prices come down to reality. There are not enough wealthy people in the world to fill all those Condos. Prices need to reflect what most people can afford. I still see people holding on to these way over-inflated asking prices. Take for example, Ten Museum Park, someone is asking 560K for a 900sqft 1 bedroom with barely any view…
When will reality set in down there?
Kim: I agree with BFG about buying defaulting mortgages. You dont really know what the true worth of these mortgages really is. Besides, there is a carrying cost to this investment (HOA, taxes, etc) and the big unknown is the liability. As you know, a house that sits vacant for a few months with AC turned off will probably get mould build up quickly. One mould gets in, you have to strip the place and redo it from the concrete up.
There are better ways of making money with less risk than housing in miami.
People dont realize the magnitude of the overbuilding in miami until you drive in the areas where these buildings are. There are so many shiny new buildings and many that are still under construction. I cant imagine any scenario under which these buildings get occupied anytime soon.
If I had money to invest, I would put it in the bank and get 5.0+% interest. It may not be a great return, but key right now is to “not lose”. Check out this blog for good bank deals: http://bankdeals.blogspot.com/
On a slightly different note, I moved my 401K last week from various fidelity overseas funds to the fidelity money market fund. I am concerned that stock market is going to take a huge dive now that oil prices are out of control and all other signs of economic slowdown are becoming more obvious. I was heavily invested in funds that invest in india/china/latin america. It has been a good run….time to lock in the gains and not lose when markets go down.
IS THERE ANYBOBY OUT THERE???
Lucas we get it you’re a fan of Villa Regina.
hey “looking to buy”…there are other blogs to keep you occupied when no one is actively commenting here. 🙂 i recommend globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com or calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
Thank you carbonblackcab this site is usually very active….lately I’ve noticed it seem’s to be FADING a bit???
We are getting there folks. A great bellweather building is an old fav on this board, the Vue.
Every time I visit the listings there, a few more 2 bdrm units have fallen under the 200/sq ft barrier. Slowly, surely, we’re getting there.
In a year you’ll see 125-150 sq. foot in more than one new building. And that’s good news, for (just about) everyone.
Thank you MOORETROOPS for keeping updated.Price’s are dropping like a lead balloon.
Ya just about everybody……EXCEPT REALESTATE AGENT’S????
New term used on Saturday by Financial Times in London to describe what is happening in the US. Inflation happens first, then people stop buying cars, homes, stereos, etc. People stop going to restaurants, car washes, etc. Eventually as people stop buying, prices continue to go down but still no buyers. This is what is happening now and will continue for the next few years. Best situation is to rent and be in all cash until the inflationary depression is over in 3-5 years. Lot’s of people are going to be hurt and lose their jobs, not happy about this but it is a fact of life.
Autos are now being sold for 15 percent less than blue book, first time in history. SUV are even worse 22-28 percent off kelly blue book. Now you have upside down car loans, on top of upside down mortgages.
The middle class will be squeezed to death with these higher costs until they can no longer buy out of fear and needs.
No, looking to buy, it IS good for real estate agents. They make their living off of sales, and sales wont happen until prices come back down to earth.
The only people this correction directly hurts are (1) those who “invested” in overvalued real estate that has depreciated by as much as 40% in the past year or so; and (2) investors in mortgage-backed securities who were duped by the big investment banks and ratings agencies.
Lower housing prices are good for America.
uhh…isn’t that just stagflation you described?
What has happened here?Is everyone asleep? Let’s have some predictions – up, down or sideways. Everyone’s thoughtful views are interesting. Don’t quit now – we are only just getting started.
Welcome to the summer in Miami. Seriously, we have more down to go. Not sure why it has not happened faster!
RDR…i think we need new stories to get the comments going again. Besides, summer is starting…it is hot and humid…people have less energy in this type of weather. lol
I would like to make an observation. Today I was at the car wash on US1 & Bird Rd. Around 7 pm, it is usually packed. Today, there were about 6 cars. They hardly have any staff there and it took forever to get my car washed and cleaned from inside. I asked the car wash guy whats up and he told me that people are not getting their cars washed like before. He said thing stating slowign down a few months ago, but the slowness has become painful in the last few weeks. The car wash is up for sale and they are going to layoff a bunch of people. 🙁 I hope they dont go out of business…..it is the only touchless car wash around the grove. I would hate to drive to coral gables or some other area to get my car washed.
Generalmagis…you are right..there is a lot more downside to the RE market here. check out this story about the ARM resets coming in the next 2 years.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/06/option-arms-moving-from-negam-to-fully.html
Some banks will choose to not reset the loans as they know people cant pay…but how long can they do it before they themselves go bankrupt.
The effects of recession and high gas prices are just starting to be felt. Things are going to get a lot worse. Tourism is not as big a part of Miami’s economy today as it was many years ago, but drop in tourism will have a bad effect. High gas prices means, people wont be driving to miami or flying to miami. Vacations are “optional’ and not necessary. When the choice is food on the table or vacation, food always wins.
It is possible that oil is in a bubble and prices may come down in a few months, but I think the damage is already done.
Carbonblackcab, I would like to add another local change in business, not a slowdown but a gain. About two weeks ago I moved some excess “stuff” into Public Storage on Biscayn. When I got there the attendant looked overwhelmed. I asked if it was a busy day and she replied “it’s been busy day for the last three months, for three years we have operated at 72% occupancy but for the last three months occupancy is up over 90%.” Thinking everyone was like me I commented “O right, with all these new condo recently completed I bet a lot of people are storing the extra STUFF so they don’t clutter up their new condo.” She looked at me and said “Honey, people are having hard times, they are losing their jobs, their homes, moving in with roommates and they are moving out of state”. She went on further to say that they recently had a few incedents of people trying to sleep in their storge units. It’ good to know some bussiness are doing well in the downturn.
I just took at look at Public Storage stock (PSA), since early March the stack has been up.
I know where I am moving some money tomorrow.
Mr Waverly – I always enjoy your posts. The economic downturn is different in that it isn’t really yet a recession nor have that many people actually lost their jobs (except Realtors® and mortgage people), rather, the non-job/non-wage incomes have dried up. What am I talking about? Credit. It was the “Refi Madness” that is playing out where people can only use their actual income and can’t juggle things with credit so those that were living beyond their means now have to live within it. By the way, yes it is I that coined that term and wrote in many months ago to CNBC why that was a better term than “Subprime Tsunami” to explain what was going on and how we got here. Erin Burnett even read it on Street Signs with my real name and all…..later Jim Cramer picked up the term and got a Bob Marley theme going (Refi Madness is a play on Reefer Madness …since the mortgage and home equity loan business is coming off its “high” and now has to deal with the reality of the situation after hitting the bottom just like an addict and now many people and institutions need to refinance their debts to get out of the madness….).
The lack of easy credit not only exposed those that lived beyond their means, it also removed a safety net for those near the edge. No doubt, this has been a hard landing for some but it was inevitable for them. Just hope they don’t bring the rest of us down any further with them. Had people not tried to live beyond their means, we wouldn’t be in this predicament. America is not poor, it just has a spending problem…
America has more than a “spending problem” it has misplaced values on what’s important and brings happiness, or at least contentment, in life.
I blame the media for a lot of it, but it also starts in the home and what you are taught to value. We are in a sad state, but even with all the crap our economy is going through, I look for and I’m thankful for my blessings everyday. Everything is cyclical, and I look forward to better days.
We need a cultural backlash to our gluttony in all its forms.
La La, I am exposed to as much as the next guy. Core values kept me from living beyond my means. If there is blame here let’s put it on the Lenders with easy credit, who knowingly allowed FRAUD and Merchants pushing ZERO % & no payments for two years. Fill your house with furniture, buy all the electronics you want, remodel while your at it an you don’t have to even think about a payment for 2-3 years.
Just wait to see the defaults on those accounts offered by Home Depot, BrandsMart and Rooms To Go.
Not to inject too much politics into anything on this board but spending beyond one’s means was rampant….and today Obama made some silly statement about people not being able to afford health insurance especially among young people…doesn’t he know many (not all) have cell phone bills or cable TV bills that are EACH larger than the cost of a decent health insurance policy? Live large and push the costs onto the rest of us… The debt pushers have created quite the mess…
Mr Waverly
i don’t think blaming the lenders has much merit. at the end of the day, each person has to decide whether they’re capable of conducting themself like an adult and be responsible for their actions. a lot folks decided, i’ll take on the debt and buy myself god knows what because it makes total sense that my house doubled in “value” in the past two years. obviously, that turned out to be some flawed reasoning.
Bravo to a fellow owner at Quantum.
This morning when I went to my car there was an envelope on the windshield, in fact on all windshields.
Abelardo Dominguez has a few issues with the developer and wants all of the owners support. It seems that complaints have been made with zero results.
1. Failing to maintain a common element; The parking garage safety concern do to poor design.
2. Failing to maintain a common element; Elevators are constantly down and at certain times waiting can be up to 10-15 minutes.
3. Adopting reasonable rules regarding common elements; Assignment of parking spaces, giving out the worst possible spaces while there are better available from unit buyers that have defaulted.
Mr Dominguez has very strong points that need our support. In his letter to unit owners he also included and filled out the three page Condominium Complaint form.
He is asking that we fill in out unit owner information, sign and send to DBPR of Florida.
Quantum is a very nice property but these issues need to be addressed now.
Terra Group could be in deep doo doo depending on the defaults at 900 Biscayn. We need to get our issues addressed before they pack up and leave town.
OK, I wont blame the Lenders. They can do that to themselves as they write off BILLION$, lose their jobs and put some financial institutes at the brink of collapse. John and Mary Consumer are going take whatever is presented to them to improve their “lifestyle”. The Lenders have been in business for years and they should have known better. Ultimately John and Mary Consumer will lose their homes and the Lenders will write of the debt and We The People will pay for it. Hopefully lessons will be learned.
Values? … priorities? … who needs ’em… we have credit cards.
Check out this video on American values, gotta love blondes kissing, big ass hamburgers, beer bongs and big pickup trucks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ctm7_3_A4Sk
Before you go too far bashing americans on spendng binges, wait till you hear stories about people going nuts with loosining credit standards in India and China. People are financing stuff like crazy and many are living beyond their means.
Living beyond ones means is not restriced to american. This problem was not visible in other countries becaus they never had access to credit. Now that they do, they are falling in the same trap. 🙁
For those who are unclear on the concept, a useful instructional video…
http://consumerist.com/consumer/clips/snl-skit-dont-buy-stuff-you-cant-afford-252491.php
Our parents’ generation used to live with delayed gratification and save up for a luxury item or need, that does not exist anymore. I don’t blame the lenders, do you blame the bar for providing alchohol?
And everyone feels so entiltled, where did this attitude come from? It’s like keeping up with the Jones on steroids, but the truth is the Jones over-extended themselves to support their lifestyle.
I’m a democrat (and if I were still a Republican I certainly wouldn’t admit it these days)- go Obama- woo-ooo-oo-o….but people need to rethink their values, take responsibility for their actions and live on their JC Penny couches and look inside themselves to fill the emptiness they are trying to fill with material possessions and one-upping the Jones of the world.
And this is coming from someone who has not over-extended herself, thank GOD- or Buddha- or Allah-or Lord Xenu:p or whatever floats your boat.
The new “attitude” about money came to us from mass marketing, a new concept introduced only in the 60s. The singular goal of every single advertisement you see — every one — is to make you feel inadequate about what you have. Billions of dollars are spent by sophisticated professionals to make you feel like a loser. So you’ll buy.
That’s what happened. And it’s not unique to America.
So that goes back to my blame the media comment I said earlier, I was right!
Lucas, congratulations!! have been following your blog for a while now and I think it’s excellent. keep up the good work.
everyone, i have a different point of view. the monster we are facing was created by the banks and as we struggle to ride this one out, they are already working on the next one “reverse mortgage”. let’s be realistic not everybody was on the same boat, but everybody is being pulled by the same current.
The media — meaning advertising and mass marketing — shouuld take a lot of the blame. Hell, you study human psychology and demographics for long enough, with a healthy dose of trial and and error, and dash of unlimited funding — and you CAN manipulate the human mind. In the words of Ron Burgundy: “It’s science.”
That said, we are not automatons or animals. It’s up to us to realize what, say, McDonalds for Coca-Cola or the NAR is doing, and to consciously resist it.
It’s time to put an end to the pernicious mind-f*ck that is unfettered marketing. It’s not cool.
Mr. Waverly; I am also a quantum owner, but I don’t live in the property as my unit is rented. I would like to support Mr. Dominguez’s petition. where can I find a copy so that I can fill it out and send it?
DLJ
You sould call your tenant to see if he can send you the letter or maybe Lucas can send you my Email.
Anybody have any insight into CapriSobe next to the Flamingo in SoBe. When it laid it’s foundation like a billion years ago, brokers were heralding it as the first $1,000 sq/ft condo on the Bay side above 5th street.
The RE South Beach logic at the time was, “Well since that building is going to sell at $1,000 sq/ft. the Flamingo center tower is definitely going to get $800 sq/ft. when it converts into Condos”… Pretty funny now, but brokers had straight faces when they were busy doing this SoBe real estate math back in the day.
Anyway, CapriSoBe has been dragging out forever now. I’m thinking they are just hoping and praying that a hurricane can knock it down before they have to start closings or else they are screwed.
Anybody know if the building is all presold and at what prices roughly?
JL,
I heard CapriSobe is 1/3 sold near its completion. I think they are overbudget and at $1,000 sq/ft its laughable in my opinion. You have really no views. I think the developers have deep pockets.
I own a unit a Quantum too, it would be nice to have every Quantum owner’s email to exchange information on issues of concern like Mr. Abelardo Dominguez initiative mentioned above, or maintenance problems, or waste of electricity in public areas, etc. Why is it that a similar sized unit at 1800 pays much less in maintenance? Stuff like that. If Lucas will allow, send me an email and I will put together a list and email you and copy everybody on ongoing concers at Quantum: My email: [email protected] Thank you.
$1000 a foot for Capri Sobe is Outrageous, I wonder how many closings they will have
All of these Miami Condos are going to crash soon. This is just the beginning and some people need to wake up before buying and finding out they just overpaid by 200,000
I also am a Quantum (3 units) owner and would like to exchange emails with others. Lucas can you help set up a meeting or suggest a place we can organize, compare notes on what is happening over there? We really need to take on the developer. Any ideas Lucas on an attorney you can refer us to?
My email address is [email protected]
I also own 2 units at Quantum.
Pls include me in the organized gathering.
[email protected]
thank you
Quantum owners should set up a free blog like this one to vent all their problems.
If your asking a real estate agent to help you get organized chances are your problems are fifty times greater than you ever imagined.
Paging Mr Lucas it’s time to change the Villa Regina Headliner.
CRICKETS… ZZZZZZ
New post please !!!!
Tried to post this several times, maybe it will work this time. Good article.
money.cnn.com/2008/06/09/real_estate/worst_hit_markets_will_get_worse/index.htm?postversion=2008061215
A 50% drop from peak pricing in Miami area is probable in real dollar terms. California may be taking the largest hit in total dollar terms though. It ain’t over, the 4th Q of this year will see some real hurt.
What do you consider peaking pricing?
JGM – I’d have to look it up but I think it was 3rd Q 2006. We’re not even 2 years into a possible 7 year decline…
Curious whether others out there think $250-$300/sq ft pricing would be a safe range to buy a nice new brickell building? Not looking for bottom feeders, just looking for what will not be a loss in say 3 or 4 year time period-break even would be fine. any thoughts? For instance, what will Plaza or 500 sell for, on average, over the next 6 months?
Gables 2/2 1400 Sq Ft at Plaza with a good view and mid to high floor at about $320,000, so Like $230 a sq ft
Does anybody know how liquid this is or how you can track the trades? re: trading “S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index” from Renter Tom’s money.cnn link.
“…Nicholas Perna, of the economic consulting firm Perna Associates. He finds it especially significant that the smart money, investors in the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index, are still buying futures as if they expect prices to continue to plummet.
The index, which tracks the sale price of specific homes as they are sold and resold over the years, is considered to be one of the most accurate home price indicators.
“The people who are putting their money where their mouths are,” said Perna, “are betting on more losses.”
Specifically, Case/Shiller investors are betting that Las Vegas prices will fall an additional 22% by November 2009. Los Angeles futures predict a further loss of 24.2% through November 2009, while investors expect to see Miami down another 21.6% by then.”
We developers listened to Sam Zell in the early 90’s when he said “Stay alive till ’95”. The new mantra is “Begin again in 2010”.
Think Miami development will be screwed for a very long while. I don’t see construction costs coming down to the selling prices of current condos for a very very very long time.
Other areas of the country should come out OK though.
Don’t pay a penny over 175/sq foot. The fun is just beginning!
i doubt anybody really knows the bottom or where we will be in 5 years. but i think those prices sound pretty good
Did anyone see the ridiculous article in the Miami Herald today? Looks like paid advertising.
“Home prices will rise, economist predicts”
Saw that article….absurd. Home prices will not rise in the short or immediate term, that much is predictable. It is going to be an ugly long ride down as Option ARM’s reset through 2009. The foreclosures have JUST BEGUN as todays report shows. So many are on the verge of foreclosure but are holding on by paying minimum to delay the inevitable. I don’t feel too much sorrow for these folks since they took on that debt and have had the benefit of living in a more luxurious place then they could otherwise afford and will stay there as long as they can for little or nothing. Pay the minimum on the Option ARM until it resets, then stop paying and live there another year until you get kicked out … so they get to live relatively cheap and the rest of us have to pick up the pieces. Little sympathy here. I recently spoke to someone who has an Option Arm and second mortgage….owns a nice car, motorcycle, etc. and plans on letting the home go into foreclosure eventually. He had tried to get the bank to reduce the mortgage principle (gosh I wish someone would give me money too) meanwhile still spending money on other things. No sympathy. Even with a good job this guy is trying to game the system and get a “free lunch”. No sympathy to deadbeats.
That Realtor economist guy says the same thing every year. At least when he evenutally dies, they can just replay his old speaches telling everyone how this is the year to buy.
the media should quite giving air time to the NAR economist-he has no credibility left. He has been calling a “bottom” for something like 2 years now. if i keep saying it will rain today, eventually i will be right on that day, but compared to my record i will look like a fool-he is in the same position.
i have not seen much selling activity in a few buildings of interest: plaza, 500 and met 1. Does anybody know at what value transactions are occuring in these buildings? since i dont see much in the MLS, i assume its all developer sales, but have no info on these. not that interested in presales, but of offers being made by recent buyers.
Axis on Brickell
Anyone been in this building? Thoughts, amenities, floor plans, pros/cons?????
Just how much is the Trump name worth? The plaintiffs in a lawsuit by buyers of luxury condominiums say that condos in buildings that carry the Trump name are worth 36 percent more than units in similar building without the name. The lawsuit was brought by around 80 condo buyers who are suing the developers of the Trump Towers complex in Sunny Isles Beach, Fla. for using the Trump name to attract buyers. As Law.com reveals, the suit says that Trump’s name can only be used temporarily and could be changed once the buildings are completed. Based on this information and a fear that the condos will be worth less without the Trump brand, buyers are asking to cancel sales contracts worth over $100 million and to have around $20 million in deposits returned. The name Trump appeared on the promotional material but not on any of the condo documents or purchase contracts. Donald Trump, who is not named in the suit, has been quoted as saying that he was “honored” by the lawsuit doubtlessly because it backs up his own decades-long campaign to turn his last name into a valuable brand.
http://www.law.com/jsp/LawArticlePC.jsp?id=1202422190611
^^
Wow, I wonder how long they have rights to the name “Trump”. Whether you like or hate him, that name does add value, especially when trying to resell your condo in the future to offshore buyers.
Everything real estate is turning into a lawsuit.
No decline would be right without a round of lawsuits.
Trumps contractual agreements were posted in the papers several times. Are wealthy people down here dumber than the rest of the country?
wild bill – in a nutshell, your answer is “YES”.
I am glad this delinquent home owners not paying the maintenance is shaking things up a bit. I hate all the waste that the HOA’s and the management companies indulge in. If these lean times teach these extravagant assholes some lessons in being frugal and living within ones means, it is a welcome step. Yes bring it on, It is time the Home owners start painting their own hallways, clean own pools, trim their grass and so on. Pay only for things that require professionals like plumbing and electrical jobs. Small buildings with under 200 units should start self managing and throw the management companies out. Paying 50 or 60 K for a manager just to sit and play politics with the board should be history.
AJ.Life doesn’t work like that. If they start painting the halls cleaning pool and someone gets hurt.Can you say law suit.If you don’t want to pay maintenance good find a house.Cheap state is not the way to go.Find good maintenance .If it’s cheap good, if not so be it.
From Generalmagic’s link. I assume this is the situation that Un-Related ran into with his Related dealings.
“The lawsuit also alleges purchasers in Trump Tower II and III overpaid for their units because the developer “operated a fraudulent and misleading resale program by manipulating” asking prices in Trump Tower I to support vastly inflated prices of units in the second and third buildings.
“Let’s say someone bought a unit in Tower I for $700,000 and wanted to resell it for $900,000,” Cooper explained. “The person would sign an agreement with a minimum price of $900,000, but the [brokerage firm and the developers] would list it for $1.4 million. So when buyers looked at Tower II they said, ‘Wow, the prices for these units are going up fast.”
The alleged fraud not only hurt buyers in the Towers II and III — who overpaid based on the manipulated listing prices of units in Tower I — but also harmed owners of units in Tower I who couldn’t sell their units at the inflated asking prices and were prohibited from trying to sell their units through other venues, Cooper said.
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The other thread “New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for May 2008” shows some suspicious sales by the Neo Loft/Vertika developer who may be trying a similar thing of artificially inflating the prices on an early building to potentially lure buyers into the next building. Whether or not it’s illegal, I guess a judge will be deciding soon.
JL said: “I assume this is the situation that Un-Related ran into with his Related dealings.”
Close but thank goodness it was on a smaller scale.
It looks like :the fix was in” at all of Related’s projects when it came to “pump and dumps”, imposing and maintaining artificial valuations, and in-house “price controls”.
Gourge Perez, in more ways than one, seems to think he is the “Papa Joe” Stalin of the Miami condo market!
Would you believe that he has the 500 Brickell project manager (3rd one in three years) cold-calling investors who did not appear at their scheduled closings, ofeering 24/7 “personal tours” of the building? (I would not believe it either until the phone rings and it’s 305-460-9900 calling!)
AZ88 asked: “Axis on Brickell
Anyone been in this building? Thoughts, amenities, floor plans, pros/cons?????”
In and OUT!! Thank God!
FYI, the pretty picture book depicted something a lot more ascetically unique than the resulting slab of concrete with blue-glass windows!
So whats the verdict at 900 Biscyane. Looks preety empty still and that was way over priced to start. Any newes on this. Terra seems to be in a little mess over at Quantum so this one I gotta guess alot of people walked cause it wasnt worth it come closing
are we not getting anymore new posts? its been like 2 weeks. im not pushy or anything but i wanna know if i need to find a new blog…haha.
Any advice about how to actually have a shot at buying a South Beach forclosure? I’ve been trying. The realtors who represent the owners (banks) seem vague & disinterested. I made a cash offer on a South Beach 2/2 on Thursday with prroof of funds, the first day my realtor was allowed to view the unit. He was told that no contracts were being accecpted & to submit a Letter of Intent instead which we immediatly did on Thursday. Despite repeated attempts no written or verbal acknowledgement of receipt of the LOI was given. On Saturday the unit is listed as “pending sale” on MLS! We still have not heard from the listing realtor today (Sunday).
It smacks of fraud to me. I have observed the same in my market. It seems that insiders are scooping up the well priced units and closing outsiders from the process.
I’d go public with it, first to higher ups at the bank, then the media.
Funny, I was in that kind of same situation with a forclosure put an offer and showed all the requirments prof of funds contract etc.. and little to no interest from the listing realtors. In fact almost impossible to get a hold of. So they wonder why things never get sold cause these moron realtors don’t do their due dillegence so either something fishy or they dont want to split the commision with another realtor and they want to find their own buyer.
It’s a shame cause regardless of offer legally they have to atleast show it. i think some of these relators are takign the contracts and throwing them out wihout showing the banks Very shaddy to me.
Quantum Owners- This is a little late, but I just returned from being out of town over the weeeknd.
There’s a website that brings condo owners together in Miami for socializing and networking. I suggest it would be a good place for you all to meet online…
http://www.miamiurbanlife.com/group/quantumonthebay,
check it out, maybe that could be your forum for all your future communication concerning your concerns with Quantum…
That was wordy, sorry, too bad you can’t edit…doh!
Has Lucas been placed into the Real Estate Witness Protection Program?
LUCAS where are you????Are sale’s that GOOD that you have no time for us ANYMORE???
Full court press I heard, with Michael Jordon slam dunk while spinning in the air.
SeanJohn,
I have never heard of any REO Asset Manager asking for an LOI for a regular listing, and I deal with foreclosures on a daily basis. what was the property adress and Unit Number?
Sorry for the lack of updates. I’m going to try to get something up tomorrow.
Alejandro, I believe SeanJohn is talking about the 2/2 foreclosure at The Cosmopolitan for $350,000. I found it unusual as well that they were asking for a Letter of Intent.
Is it possible banks are playing a game to see better what discounts are needed to move property, without taking an unnecessary loss in the process?
They are filming pornos in one of the south facing units of The Cosmopolitan. One of the upper floor units. Make sure you bring a forensic lamp to the unit before bidding on it.
I had to watch three scenes of that horrible movie before I could figure it out. The nice balcony railings and small window in the corner gave it away.
I love the video – looks like a nice development. Wish I lived anywhere near Miami to go check it out in person!
Gables they are not playing a game because many bank owned foreclosure properties have moved in the past 3 months, I have seen many go for over asking price
Lucas
You are right & welcome back. My realtor saw the listing on the MLS last monday & was told he couldn’t see the unit before Thursday, the same day we made the offer. The listing never made it onto the selling realtors site either. The LOI was unusual especially since it was pending sale 24 hours later. Alejandro is right, foreclosures are moving but when a cash offers receipt isn’t even acknowledged one can’t help wondering if the deal was signed/sealed prior to one’s even getting the look at the condo.
Apt 1502 at the Cosmopolitan (2/2) was Bank Owned at $379,000 and it just went to Cancelled.
The last sale for a 2/2 was $380K 4/26/08
the 2/2 That SeanJohn put an offer on is on pending Sale, lets see if it closes for less than he offered….
SeanJohn keep us posted! I want to see what happened it is possible that the Asset manager accepted an offer before your offer was submitted or perhaps the other offer was Cash
Alejandro
I was told the 2/2 went for full offer, cash. So very possibly true. I also made a cash offer for 10% less than asking. I’ll let you know if I get confirmation.
Regarding unit 1502, what does “went to cancelled” mean?
Yah if you offered 10% less or 315K you definitely did not get it it was already offered so low compared to the rest of the market