Only 40 Developer Units Remain at 900 Biscayne Bay

New condo inventory in Downtown Miami will be gone by the end of this year, and prices will probably snap back quite violently in 2012 in absense of any meaningful supply. South Florida is unsustainably cheap for such a magical place.

Poor, thanks for all the care, but 9 pages is an extravagance I cannot afford these days. Sorry, but you’ll have to rehash this thing in your own words, if you want to make your point about real estate in Miami declining forever.
And no, I am not Irish.

Papercut

This is especially for you! Are you one of the Irish from Dublin?

Papercut,

Very interesting article and certainly worth reading. Nevertheless, there’s one fundamental difference between Miami and Dublin, or Tokyo after the real estate crash. Aside from the Irish, very few people are interested in buying property in Dublin. Aside from Japanese, very few people want to buy property in Tokyo.

However, just about EVERYONE wants to own property in Miami. It’s all supply and demand and even though there is a lot of supply, there’s also a lot of demand (for the right areas).

Comments were to Poor and Unemployed, actually.

You are so right about that. Who would want to buy real estate in places like London, Dublin, Tokyo, …….

I just heard from a developer friend that about 100 apartments on Brickell were sold to some Egyptian buyers who came on chartered jets. There was this long line of Brink’s vans. I guess they must have paid cash.

Well 100 less apartments on the market with another 50,000 to go!

Poor, anyone who sees viable parallels between prices in London, Tokyo and Miami clearly needs some professional help. For the price of 3-bedroom Brickell condo in a prime building you’d be lucky to get a studio in decent area in London. Recent Irish and Spanish building boom would make Miami look stagnant in comparison. On top of the boom these two were constructing more than 500 000 houses in Spain(40 million population)per annum, vs 2 million in USA (300 million residents). Irish (4,5 million people) were building 75 000 houses a year. That’s three (Ireland) or two (Spain) times the… Read more »

Papercut, I think you are one of those 5,000 Irish who are expating themselves (not illegally immigrating – I say!) every month.

Didn’t the Irish say the same things about their own real estate market? Spanish – they say they do not have a problem! Unfortunately, burying head in the sands of south beach is not the wise thing to do. Sand gets in the eyes and things look very blurry. But who am I to say! I sold what I had back in 2006 and have nothing to sell. I am ready to buy at right price.

Poor, again, you are stuck in the wonderland of your own making. You are not looking at stats, but merely defending some preconcieved notions, which by themselves are nothing but wishful thinking. Spanish and Irish bubbles were as easy to see back then as it is to see that Miami is cheap today. As usual, you will only discover how wrong you are after prices are 50% higher. But until then, sure, have fun.

So – I invest $40 K to buy a $200K property. Pay $20K a year in carrying cost. Collect $24k in rent. Then after 12 months I sell it for $300K. Book capital gains of 250%.
WoW! You are a genius. Can we work together? Your brains and my money – we will be billionaires in no time.

Carrying costs for 200k should be around 10k, or 8k if you are in a high tax brasket, or zero dollars zero cents if you LLC it and expense everything. So 24k would be a cool 12% tax-free return on a property that has a good chance to appreciate in value. Add maybe 3% per annum in price rise…so 15% a year. What would be your return on gold (which everyone wants to buy today) if you bought it on margin, and it collapsed 75% (as it did from 1981 to 2001)? How much rent would you get on your… Read more »

Papercut — Stats? You’re telling *us* to look at stats? Here are a few for you:

– 11 percent of all homes in the U.S. are VACANT.
– U.S. unemployment = 10 percent and is forecast to remain steady until well into 2012.
– real U.S. unemployment is estimated at 12-plus percent.
– U.S. underemployment = 24 percent.
– unemployment in Miami is worse than the national average.
– job creation in Miami is worse than the national average.

But, yeah, keep telling yourself that Miami r.e. prices will “snap back violently in 2012.”

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha …

In reference to the post about 900: It is a sad day in Miami real estate when a luxury high rise in a prime location is referred to as healthy when it has turned into a building full of renters. The developer only has 40 units to sell because they have rented the rest of them. I initially rented in 900 because I wanted to buy until I learned that the building has serious elevator issues and that I can happily rent a unit for 50% of the holding costs. In a building with 516 total number of units with… Read more »

Papercut:

Carrying cost of ZERO? Cost of carrying a asset on you books – HOA, Taxes, maintenance (interior), capital cost …..

Of course! I forgot. Large number of “owners” are not paying mortgages, HOA, taxes etc in MIAMI so they do not have a carrying cost.

PS – You would not know much about portfolio manangement or hedging etc! Would you? I was about to go into business with you but now you have disappointed me.

900 Club said: “It is a sad day in Miami real estate when a luxury high rise in a prime location is referred to as healthy when it has turned into a building full of renters.”

— No, no, haven’t you heard? There’s no difference between a building being owner-occupied and being full of renters! Just ask Gixxer 1000 and Papercut and the other “experts” around here.

Downtown Miami went almost 50 years without a signifigant number of residential building. Why all the demand all of sudden? Not like retirees want to live in a downtown area for relaxation. It was all credit based. Sold to the masses as an up and coming area. It was all based on speculation and quick financing.
Look at this failed fraud vision that was used to sell these condos.
http://www.doverkohl.com/files/pdf/Miami%20CRA_low%20res.pdf

All building developers rent units. They either do it through their own office or allocate units to specific agents.

—-> WHEN the developer rents units in his building directly that is the KISS of death for a building. Cause the developers offers cheap move in specials, with low deposits etc, that general brings in a lower income and a lower class of renters into the building —-> that is what happened at AXIS, thank god that my building is well funded from the investors that own it now so the infinity developer have not rented any of the units directly. —-> when the units are rented by the individual investors that own them, it better for the building cause… Read more »

Wild Bill Says: All building developers rent units. They either do it through their own office or allocate units to specific agents. —-> not in my building, and that is for sure. Being a full owner in my building I know what is going on with it. Papercut says, Of course! I forgot. Large number of “owners” are not paying mortgages, HOA, taxes etc in MIAMI so they do not have a carrying cost. —-> just FYI infinity has sold over 50% of the building (240 units) and not one is past due on their HOA Fees and that is… Read more »

Interesting piece on the wall st journal about cash buyers helping the RE Market. Says “downtown Miami prices rose 15% in 2010 from a year earlier, according to the Miami Downtown Development Authority”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704570104576124502975117950.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLETopStories

Owneratinfinity, I know you love your building and I usually agree with you but I think you’re letting your personal preference for your building cloud your judgment. I looked at renting at Axis directly from the developer and they indeed required first, last and security deposit. The main thing that turned me off about Axis was that there was carpet. There was no building that I looked at that didn’t require first, last and security deposit. And you sound like Joe with this whole “class of renter” thing. If someone can afford $1500 rent a month does it really make… Read more »

Anyone else read the article posted above in the WSJ about the couple who is buying 3 condos in the Canyon Ranch for the dogs? LOL… Is it me or does it sound like possibly the beginins of another speculative bubble forming. Look at the stock market today, Dow is above 12000 when just a few months ago people were calling for double dip and back down to sub 6000. I can see the same thing hapening in SOME RE markets but it will take years not months and it won’t be as bad as it was before. As I… Read more »

Market normalcy will return when actual owners occupy these units. Condominiums were never a good investment throughout history. These people are still trying to convince themselves it will work.

What is market normalcy? I don’t know if that exists in certain markets. I think we are going from boom to bust cycles.

Gixxer1000, you will understand better on what I am saying when you get older, become an owner and when your taste changes. It may be getting old, however I will continue to correct any too general info until someone else on this blog tells us their exp and what they have learned by actually buying and living as perm resident in a condo in miami. Also like I tell other, if you dont like my comments it’s simple just don’t read them. As far as I can tell none of the major players on this blog have actually bought a… Read more »

Oh my God, who would have ever thought that Gixxer 1000 and owneratinfinity would have broken up like this? Truly heart-wrenching. I wonder if owneratinfinity will retract all his flattering remarks he made about Gixxer many months ago…

owneratinfinity you seem to easily fall victim to the hasty generalization syndrome with all this Gen Y and Gen X crap. There are criteria other than age that make up one’s disposition/personality.

owneratinfinity what will you do when you’re in a nursing home in a few years? Technically, it’s full of renters.

We’ve had this dicussion here before. Owners do not like renters living amongst them. Renters will never understand that because they are not owners and they all think they are great tennants. It is the same reason why Americans don’t want Illegal Immigrants coming to this country.

owneratinfinity, First off I’m not 25 anymore either. I don’t know where you got that from. The only reason I’m renting is because I just moved here and wanted to get more comfortable with the area. When I did my cost vs buy analysis it was so close that I figured I’d rent first. If I knew exactly where I’d end up working then I probably would have simply bought but I obviously had no way of knowing that. I don’t care if you belittle renters. I’m just pointing out what is and isn’t true. You said Axis doesn’t require… Read more »

It is the same reason why Americans don’t want Illegal Immigrants coming to this country
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Unless they are Europeans? Like Irish or British or Italians, Germans, Norwegians……….. So far they are whiter shade of white?

You make me sick!

sorry, you are right. I should have said darker skined Illegal Immigrants.
Never thought of those groups as being considered of the illegal community, thought they were given residency status upon request. My bad!

Only 37? If I weren’t so turned off by living near an arena and a parking lot I would call struggling landlord and make them an offer they couldn’t refuse. Using real estate brokers is so 2006.

Update…there are now only 37 units available. While all of you are bickering over which of you could possibly know less about the market, 3 more units sold.

Gixxer 1000 — You’re dreaming if you think renters treat condo common areas with as much respect as owners. There are reports all over this site and other Miami sites regarding people urinating in elevators, vandalizing hallways, robbing equipment from fitness centers, stealing remote controls from common areas, etc., etc.

People treat rental cars worse than their own car, hotel rooms worse than their own homes, etc. This is just human nature, and it’s hardly a news flash. So why do you insist on arguing otherwise?

Gixxer you said “What does girls going topless and people playing loud music at the pool have to do with the health of building. It might be annoying to people like you or it might not, but it isn’t hurting the building.” That is a silly statement for a condo building. For a rental building, perhaps. But for prospective buyers, it is a major turnoff. Losing supply of buyers will drop the demand, and price point of your building. So the value of the units decreases. It hurts a building. A major difference between condos and professional apartment buildings (both… Read more »

Joe, agree renters do not care for a property the way an owner does. But you use over the top examples which are not commonplace anywhere I have rented an apartment. I have never lived anywhere that somebody urinated in the elevator!

Gables, that wasn’t a silly statement. It was an stupid statement. Low-class, obnoxious behavior does indeed “hurt the building.” Image is everything, and as long as a condo’s image is based on sluts and electronic music freaks running around the property, then the condo itself will gradually decline. The condo’s culture will be shaped by its residents, and no one will want to buy, respectable owners/tenants will move out, and it turns into a giant frat house. See Grand Flamingo on South Beach as a case study.

Wild Bill Says:
Only 37? If I weren’t so turned off by living near an arena and a parking lot I would call struggling landlord and make them an offer they couldn’t refuse. Using real estate brokers is so 2006.

—-> 100% agree – I dont use brokers or buyer agents. I liked the buildings themselves, but I didn’t want the noise and traffic issues from the arena. Plus the area west of those buildings are pretty rough. That is why I didnt buy in that area.

Joe, you said
People treat rental cars worse than their own car, hotel rooms worse than their own homes, etc. This is just human nature, and it’s hardly a news flash. So why do you insist on arguing otherwise?

—> 100% agree,it’s not just the renters that mess things up, it is also the friends of the renters that do it. They have less respect for the building then the renters since they dont live in the building

I’m curious as to how many people actually spend time in these condos. Because most of these arguments are completely ridiculous. People here talk with such hyperbole. The worst thing I have ever seen in the majority of these buildings is the occasional new dog pissing in the hallway or elevator on the way out and the embarrassed owner not cleaning it up. Would some people choose not to buy at a place because of renters…yes. But I also know some people who wont but at a place because black people live there. And it’s all pointless because almost all… Read more »

Gixxer, the example previously cited about Flamingo in South Beach is a perfect example of renter created chaos. This building is on the beach! Had a friend move out of it a couple of years ago, broke his lease at 6 months, because it was so bad. And he was part of the under 30 crowd. Renters can have an impact. Actually, comparing cars to condos is not as silly as it sounds. You may be a great driver, but your auto insurance in Miami will be higher than just about anyplace else in the country. That has less to… Read more »

It’s really funny reading through the comments, having 10 people all agree, and then have Gixxer 1000 come in and post a 2,000-word rebuttal that says everyone else is wrong.

What can we argue about tomorrow? Maybe Gixxer 1000 can edify us on how the whole “Earth is round” thing is a fallacy.

Joe, Don’t try to pit me against everyone just because you disagree. I agreed that renters have an effect I just disagree that it’s to the extent that people here make it out to be. But to you as usual everything is black or white. gables, Again I’m not saying that renters CAN’T have an impact, I’m talking about whether they ARE. I specifically asked for downtown examples and you give me a South Beach example. People move to South Beach for different reasons. The vast majority of the people I run into who live downtown are mainly young professionals.… Read more »

Gixxer 1000 — I never said people were urinating in the elevators every day or anything like that, or that renters were coming in and destroying buildings in a matter of days or weeks. The effect is more gradual over time, just like with hotel rooms and rental cars. No matter how much you might protest, people simply don’t respect rented property (or property they’re visiting) as much as they respect their own property. This is just basic human nature. Also, what is your definition of a “young professional”? Why could these young professionals not afford to live downtown until… Read more »

yes, I already said that that there will be lots and lots of renters in Infinity, just like all the other new large condo buildings in Brickell and I have excepted it, but I just don’t like, And like I already said .. The Big difference between Axis and Infinity is that the Axis developer is renting directly to renters with very low move in specials, while the Infinity developer is selling the units to investors first who then are renting them, however these investors are not giving low move in specials like axis does. They require first, last, and… Read more »

Story from WPLG about renters in downtown
http://www.justnews.com/money/26792085/detail.html

owneratinfinity, Its like you’re trying to ignore anything that goes against Infinty. Years ago when these buildings first started offering rentals they offered deals and reduced rents to help spur demand. This IS not the case and has not been the case for some time now. When I went to Axis in the summertime not only were they not offering deals but they also didn’t have anything available when I wanted to move in. They ended up calling me back weeks later after I had already decided on another place. The property is well maintained and the pool is nothing… Read more »

if Axis developer is now requiring first, last and security then of course the class of renters will be the same in both buildings. This was not the case with my friends who got very low move in specials back in 2008. I am glad that Axis is requiring more money at move in. That should help stop peolpe posting bad reviews on the building like I remember reading back in 2008 and 2009. I am on one of the top floors of the infinity building where there are many more larger units with the best views then the lower… Read more »

Contrary to popular belief, the world does not revolve around the sun. The world actually revolves around Infinity!

BTW, that was just a joke owneratinfiniy. Please don’t take offense.

Lucas, I am not in contact with a predatory lender. I just live in the building and know for a fact that the developer has directly rented many units in the building. I do retract my 50% comment, however. Using my situation as an example – I am in a 1/2 07 line 40+ floor. The lowest listed for 07 line is $450,000 – let’s say I’m a shrewd negotiator and get down to $375,000 and put $100,000 down. At 4.75% 30 yr fixed – monthly mortgage is $1,434 with ~ $500 HOA fee and $634 in taxes – total… Read more »