Contact Us

Rentals Now Available at Icon Brickell II

Posted on

Icon Brickell II

I was notified yesterday that rentals are now available in tower 2 of Icon Brickell.  Tower 2 is the southeast tower of the Icon Brickell development.  The units are renting fast!  56 rentals were made available on Saturday and as of yesterday 15 had already been rented.

Below, you will find the floor plans that are available along with the starting prices.  The rent price includes 800 channels of cable, high-speed Internet, one parking space, water and a health club membership.  Pets are NOT allowed.

Call me at 305-350-9842 or email me at lucas@miamicondoinvestments.com if you would like to schedule a showing.

  • H floor plan – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 732 square feet – starting at $1690
  • G floor plan – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 984 square feet – starting at $2000
  • G-Rev floor plan – 1 bedroom/1 bath – 1035 square feet – starting at $2100
  • E floor plan – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1327 square feet – starting at $2750
  • C floor plan – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1500 square feet – starting at $2850
  • B floor plan – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1503 square feet – starting at $2950
  • D floor plan – 2 bedroom/2 bath – 1600 square feet – starting at $2500

There currently aren’t any studio or 3 bedroom rentals available.

Icon Brickell Tower 2 sitekey



121 thoughts on “Rentals Now Available at Icon Brickell II

  1. RENTER TOM….what do you think about those rental prices? I think there still at least 30% too high……anybody else??

  2. Joe, Lucas needs the site name to stay to keep his search engine prominence, even though the site name is quite dated and irrelevant in 2010. In order to keep the search engine hits, may I suggest a new name of this blog:
    “www.Miami Condos: Bad Investments.com”

  3. Rentals are quick money. In this case all you would have to do is take your client to Icon sign a sheet and collect a commission check. You essentially lose your soul being a real estate agent. You start grifting everybody. Which is how we got into this mess. Until the government stops subsidizing real estate this will never end.

  4. Hey WILD BILL thats exactly what I think.I’d like RENTER TOM’S perspective on this….He’s the Man in the KNOW.I’m surprised the Government dosen’t rent those EMPTY buildings for WELFARE HOUSING.At least you get them off the street and it helps the Developer stay above water

  5. My first impression was the rental prices seemed pretty high…..I personally pay a tad more than any of these but I am in a pretty fantastic condo on the beach with outstanding direct ocean views. I want to live in a great place so I am willing to pay the price which is still half the price of owning (HOA, taxes, mortgage/cost of money). I wouldn’t pay those prices to live downtown…..maybe on the beach if great views, but downtown???

    Remember, rents are driven by incomes since there aren’t any financing games that can be played such as pick a payment mortgages etc. These rental prices will need to come down quite a bit….20%? 30%? don’t know. I wonder what finishes they will use to complete the units???

    P.S. I am waiting to hear from AJ saying that all his friends from Bombay would jump at these low prices!!! ROFL

  6. Prices are obviously way too high…..kinda like the sales prices. I’m guessing they’ll get a few suckers to sign leases at these rates, then they’ll drop them significantly…..kinda like the sales prices.

    Anyway though, Jersey Shore is on now, WTF am I doing posting here…I’ve got way more important things to be doing right now!

  7. Hey Tom you say that rents are driven by income, how are those figures calculated? Are you using some indicators or indexes?

    I am wondering if that is really only part of how rents are determined. Wouldn’t real estate agents have a large factor setting the rate since their income is based commission on the rental price? (Isn’t it like a month or something?) All they simply have to do is just say that the rent price will not move and that is what we are stuck with, or am I missing something?

  8. LookingForDeal – Yes, you are missing something LOL…..if people aren’t earning the big money they can’t pay the big rents….As such, the units will either stay empty or they lower the rent prices……

  9. Why do people think that Tommy boy the renter is some sort of messiah about the market? Anyways I toured the Icon the other day and it is quite impressive. I would never ever buy or rent in there as I that is def. not my style but I can see how the Ed Hardy crowd would fall in love with this. I don’t think they will have much trouble renting at these prices. I have been sitting on the fence for the last 4 years and renting. Couple of months ago I decided to get off the fence and wanting to buy. Is it the bottom yet? who knows, I know all the statistics about shadow inventory etc. but for the right neighborhoods ie south pointe or sfh in shores area I think we are pretty close or there already. Supporting that assesment is that I have bid on 3 places so far and lost out on every one of them. I’m not getting desperate however and still waiting for the right deal. Not an investment deal but a place to live in for a couple of years at least. Best of luck to you all and keep on renting Tom. beach condos are never going to be the place to invest in – long or short term

  10. As always, bunch of losers – Joes, Renter Toms, Aces, etc. – with no money to buy but ultimately oh so badly wanting to own (otherwise why so much passion about real estate from a bunch of renters, trying to talk the market down?), will completely miss the bottom due to excessive belief in each other’s BS…
    Miami had already leveled off. Quantum’s developer inventory is gone, for example, and sales office has moved out. Rentals will soak up the remaining inventory across this city pretty quickly. Intake is pretty strong without any new supply.
    People with real money are decending on Miami in droves, scooping huge bargains and leaving bearish crowd in the dust, to sit and wait for another opportunity in 10 years. Which they’ll miss again, of course. Such is the destiny of a loser.

  11. I have a feeling the majority of people in Miami are still spending 60% of their income on housing. I don’t think people realize this is not the way they are supposed to live. It leaves no room for escorts and strip clubs.

  12. BottomFeederNumeroUno said: “trying to talk the market down?”

    - Oh please, give me a break. 2010 will have record high foreclosures in our area and with Prime Jumbo delinquencies hitting nearly 10% around here talk isn’t what is bringing the market down. Strategic defaults will be increasing too. Reality has sunk in and the pain train runs through all of 2010. Toward the end of 2008 I wrote you might as well skip over 2009…I think I was right. The funny thing is, I might buy a condo soon…..just to have one for fun AND I will be doing it with the money I saved by renting! It’s true, I calculated how much I’ve saved (renting at half the price of owning plus price declines round out to about $300K) and may just buy one if the right one comes along….I have two contracts on my desk now but it really is optional whether I want to pick up a condo for fun or pull the trigger on a larger one for a primary residence. Again, NO RUSH……

  13. Care to say, Renter Tom, what that “right condo for fun” looks like? A lot of people on this forum are following your every word with bated breath. Inform us, please, which condo deal would make you to sign at the dotted line?

  14. Its funny that some people are labeled losers because they have yet not bought in this market or choose to be (rightfully) skeptical. I’d rather be renting w/ little worries rather than to have bought in the past and be $100k+ underwater or to have purchased recently and be constantly worried that valuse will decline even more. Comments like #17 are made by idiotic realtors, unscrupulous mortgage brokers, desperate developers or simply fools that bought a unit at the wrong time and are now very bitter about it.

    #17 says: “Miami has already leveled off.” Sure buddy. I believe that. Moron.

  15. Drew:

    Brilliant!

    Anyone who asserts that Miami’s real estate values have “leveled off” is clearly “punch drunk,” deluded and otherwise using up valuable oxygen and natural resources. PUT THE CUP DOWN AND BACK AWAY FROM THE COOL-AID!!!!

    “Rentals will soak up the remaining inventory across this city pretty quickly.” – - BottomFeederNumeroUno

    PLEASE!?!?! Rentals do not “soak up” anything. Rather, they merely transfer possession from tenant to tenant. Rentals do not “soak up” deeds nor do they transfer title or decrease existing inventory. Tenants do not pay real estate taxes nor do they pay HOA fees.

    At best, rentals generate momentary “bubbles” of hype – - and if Miami has learned anything from the “pump and dump” that occurred over the past seven (7) years, it should be: Momentary hype builds little to no sustainable value. As I saw at the NeoVertika development after it opened: you can pack a development full of south beach wanna-be party flunkies and hold all the loud parties you want – - but the hype won’t build sustainable values if the development has no substantive value to begin with given the availability of suitable alternatives for tenants to chose from. Once again: PUT THE CUP DOWN AND BACK AWAY FROM THE COOL-AID!!!!

    A word of caution to anyone thinking about renting in ICON or any other financially distressed condo building: READ YOUR LEASE VERY, VERY, CAREFULLY. Real estate agents are not competent (no offense folks, but they just don’t have the skills – - ask the Florida Bar) to advise prospective tenants in this regard, but I imagine that new lease agreements will and do contain a whole host of clauses designed to benefit the distressed condo development at the expense of, or detrimental to, the tenant.

    scriv

  16. Certainly some opinion floating around out there… BottomFeeder you sure are making some accusations. But I will agree to an extent, there are a large mass of people out there that currently do not have the funds to buy, after all FL has one of the highest unemployment rate. But I don’t think your statement can be said for every person. As I can only speak for myself, I can say that I have looked how much it will cost to rent vs. buy. After calculating the associated unstable risks of owning a condo (i.e. HOA, taxes), my personal opinion is that at this point it’s not worth buying. We may be at the bottom of the market, we may not be? But I am taking a more conservative approach with my money and investments and would rather pay a bit more, when there is confidence of stabilization than gambling on trying to hit the absolute bottom of the market. I simply do not see the over-all benefit.

    As far as the comment “People with real money are decending on Miami in droves, scooping huge bargains” I would say this… is there anybody out there now, with OR without “real money” that has bought and does not feel like they got a “huge bargain”?

    Plus that seems to be the major marketing slogan right now, every realtor is saying how it is a great time to buy… come to think of it, I do not recall a realtor ever saying it wasn’t a good time to buy (nothing against realtors, my in-laws are realtors in Naple).

  17. BOTTOM FEEDER …….I would bet the FARM that you are KEVIN TOMLINSON…..in cognito…….. KEVIN TOMLINSON is a TRUE BOTTOM FEEDER and is only trying to get in LUCAS’S face. GOOD TRY KEVIN!!!!!!!!!

  18. Who cares who BottomFeederNumeroUno really is: wrong is wrong; stupid is as stupid does. Anyone who perpetuates ignorance is not worth their salt.

    scriv

  19. $1690 – $2100 for a one bedroom? Good luck with that.

    I have nothing against the Icon, but from the get-go the prices were always at a big premium over other properties with no real justification as to why.

    The average Miami club promoter / VIP host / waitress / bouncer type etc doesn’t have the income to support the rents listed.

    and just think of the raw numbers. They made 56 units available. So there are 1600+ units left to go! 1600! While I support their business decision to try to snag a few suckers with the high rents to start with, these rents have nowhere to go but down.

    I am glad to see the units going into the hands of end users.

  20. While we are on the topic of rent does anyone know when rentals will become available at Marquis downtown? I have toured the buildng and like what i have seen. That might be my next home as soon as my lease is up at 900.

  21. I think don’t mean to challenge anybody here but I think it is important to have people like making his comments and telling us his/hers point of views.

    In order to understand the market you need to have a complete holistic view, not just what you feel is right or wrong, what moves should or shouldn’t be made. I think you just try and learn from what is said and be asking why he/she feels that way and try to understand it. In gaining that knowledge it only provides you greater insight to what people are doing and feeling about how to approach the market place. Remember not every person is going to take the same approach and have the same views, if what BottomFeeder is saying is that there are people out there that feel this is the bottom of the market and not buying is now the time. So if I was selling a condo I would be looking for a person like BottomFeeder to be selling to and using that as a motivator.

    Just my thoughts…

  22. LookingForDeal

    The problem here is that most people talk in generalities and hyperbole. Take scriv for example. Even when typing scriv is always yelling and he doesn’t even know how to spell “Kool-aid”. It’s like watching Democrats and Republicans argue. Since their main point is to push their agenda and not look at facts, it turns into a group of people arguing about half-truths. Look at the banter here mostly childish name calling.

    Drew – I agree that Miami’s has not leveled off but Brickell doesn’t seem to be doing to bad.

    Month to Month Median Sales Price in Brickell

    August $207,800 (Down 5%)
    September $237,800 (up 14%)
    October $226,000 (down 5%)
    November $228,000 (up .8%)

    Average over 4 months 1.2%

    In comparison Miami as a whole seems to continually drop at about 5% per month. Since were on MiamiCondoInvestments.com I’m going to assume people are primarily concerned with condos in Brickell.

    In August ’09 Brickell median sales prices dropped below the Miami median before quickly correcting. If you think Brickell is going to drop below Miami as a whole then I strongly disagree.

    It appears as thought the biggest losses to come will be in the high end jumbo market. The bottom can’t go much lower.

    The biggest problem as everyone here can clearly see is the HOA and taxes. Brickell is a desirable area and as a result will always command a price above the Miami median. Sales prices are where they should in relation to the market but HOA and taxes still make the total cost too high. For prices to correct there are only three logical outcomes:

    1. Sales prices fall, HOA and Taxes hold
    2. Sales prices hold, HOA and Taxes fall
    3. Sales prices fall, HOA and Taxes fall

  23. Ok, Gixxer 1000:

    If I was being to subtle and too dry, so be it, it happens. If the difference between “kool” (which is not a word but a part of a brand name) and “cool” (meaning “socially adept”, “great; fine; excellent”) then fine: my bad.

    scriv

  24. “PUT THE CUP DOWN AND BACK AWAY FROM THE COOL-AID”

    This to me sounds like a reference to the phrase “drink the Kool-Aid” meaning to believe something blindy. A reference to the Jonestown massacre where they all blindly believed in Jim Jones and drank Kool-Aid with cyanide in it.

    How would changing it to “Cool” help to prove your point?? I could see if we were talking about somthing that was cool and it was some type of word play.

    You thought it was spelled “Cool-Aid”, no biggie.

  25. Gixxer 1000:

    “You thought it was spelled “Cool-Aid”, no biggie.”

    No, not really.

    But….I am calling it here and now….10 points for the Gixxer! You correctly picked up on the reference!

    Use of the word “Cool” in lieu of “kool” was intended to covey the idea that not only the blind belief in the person they followed (the developer), but also the mistaken belief that the drink itself somehow made what they were selling and saying “cool.” (Remeber the crack about the “south beach wanna-be party flunkies”?)

    The hyphen between “cool” and “aid” means that “cool” modifies “aid”: meaning that the contents of the cup somehow aids the drinker in being “cool” (“socially adept”, “great; fine; excellent”). The other, obviously too dry and subtle, was to “stop drinking the cool-aid” because: it ain’t workin’.

    Happy Friday.

    scriv

  26. bottomfeeder…

    who cares about catching the bottom ? you could miss it all you want and still not be harmed in any meaningful way. so maybe you pay five/ten pct more than the best deal possible. so what. better than paying twenty/thirty pct more than what you should have bought at.

    understand, the miami re market, even after a recovery, will be stagnant for years to come. let me repeat…YEARS TO COME (and this isn’t my layman, albeit, industry exposed, opinion. rather, i’ve sat in enough negotiations over the past year with commercial RE appraisers that all have the same prognosis…except for m.cannon).

  27. computer consultant

    “foreclsoures highest since april”

    What is the significance of this? From the article YOU posted about forclosures:

    “Banks repossessed more than 92,000 homes, up 19 percent from November. That increase was likely due to lenders working to clear their books at the end of the year, RealtyTrac said.”

    Its a little misleading to say “foreclosures highest since April” when the overall trend is that they have been falling since March, the YoY trend from last December is down and the spike in December appears to be Banks working to clear their books.

    I’m not arguing that the market isn’t falling. I’m just pointing out that many people are drawing arbitrary conclusions.

  28. Gixxer, you are a chump and come across as an extremely annoying individual on this blog. You speak as if you are some sort of all-knowing financial wizard and for some reason enjoy citing previous comments from others and applying your asinine analysis.

    Since you seem so concerned over homonyms and other grammatical matters, how about some of your previous comments from the past few weeks in which you consistently referred to condos as “Condos”? Why the capitalization, Gixxer? “Condos” is not a proper noun nor does it have any other characteristics that would necessitate capitalization.

    So please refrain from your trivial criticisms, as you are taking away from any meaningful discussion and, as I said, it comes across as very annoying and patronizing.

  29. “i’ve sat in enough negotiations over the past year with commercial RE appraisers that all have the same prognosis…except for m.cannon”

    Interestingly enough these are the same RE appraisers that were valuing property 40% higher two years ago than what it is selling for today.

    They overshoot on the way up…..and on the way down.

    We can all make educated guess, but last time I checked no one can predict the future.

    Could the market be stagnant for years to come..possibly. Is it a fact…of course not.

    Regardless, that is besides the point. Not every market within Miami is going to mirror the market. You don’t buy a property in Brickell, South Beach, etc. based on what Miami is doing, you buy it based on what that specific market is doing.

  30. Drew

    First off scriv seems to be fine with our discourse. I simply took a quick jab at scriv because I thought some of his comments were mainly hyperbole. While scriv’s humor is a bit dry (admittedly) there has been no indication that my comments were offensive, especially as other people (yourself included) are referring to people as “stupid” and “morons”. When have I called anyone anything remotely close???

    “So please refrain from your trivial criticisms, as you are taking away from any meaningful discussion and, as I said, it comes across as very annoying and patronizing.”

    Are you serious???

    You started this thread by saying “Let me know when it becomes Section 8.”

    Then you followed it up by saying that name of the site should be changed to “www.Miami Condos: Bad Investments.com”

    Where is there any meaningful discussion in anything you have recently wrote???

    You come to a guys blog called Miami Condo Investments and trash the entire market without any empirical data and say I come off like a chump?

    I’m sorry if you feel annoyed or patronized buddy but its the internet… get over it. I’d probably be annoyed too if I never took a college finance class and I thought the mention of the risk-free rate made someone come off as an “all-knowing financial wizard’.

    I personally would like to come here and get some good solid opinions from insightful individuals but the reality is a lot of people here are probably living at their mothers house praying that Brickell condos will one day sell for $20 sqft so they can finally afford to move out and any mention to the contrary and they immediately call you a moron.

  31. gixxer
    (1) they’re not the same folks (except for cannon)
    (2) perhaps one could suggest they’re pessimism is a tad overboard, but, i’d lean more on that view than the opposite view of expect growth (at a historical level?) within the next three years. sorry, just not happening. a significant amount of the condo market has not been absorbed. instead, it’s just been moved over temporarily into rental stock. the end question still remains – who the hell buys this stuff and at what price? no one knows. that type of unpredictability breeds caution in making a buy decision.

  32. Since this has gone completely off-topic, I’ll contribute one small correction on the above: It’s a common misconception that Kool-Aid was what was used at Jonestown…..it was actually Flavor-Aid.

    Carry on.

  33. You guys are all a bunch of losers. Get out of my basement, go get a job and go get an overpriced Miami condo. You’re 34 years old and still living at home. Please just go buy the fu*king condo and quit talking about it. I’m embarassed that you are my son. Thank you Lucas Lechuga for giving my a-hole son a forum to finally be heard in his pathetic life.

  34. BottomFeederNumeroUno — Just for the record, as I’ve mentioned repeatedly on this board, I lived in Miami for years but I don’t currently live in Miami because of a work assignment. Further, the idea a handful of people on a popular though relatively powerless blog could “talk the market down” is just silly. All the talk in the world can’t reverse the havoc the speculators, r.e. agents, and developers hath wrought on the Miami r.e. market. I’m sure there are some good deals here and there, but for the most part, all we can do is sit back and wait for the market to correct itself over time. (And with taxes and HOA fees ever on the rise, and with many HOAs already teetering on the brink of disaster, today’s “good deal” could still prove to be a bad deal.)

  35. DJ – Cherry Flavor-Aid to be exact….LOL

    Hey, there are some simple things. We just went through a credit bubble that popped. Things that need credit to buy were hit pretty hard as a result. The credit bubble will not be re-inflated anytime soon and so prices via a shift down in the demand curve will remain stagnant for quite a while. Combine the bursting of the credit bubble with the exodus of enthusiasm for real estate as an investment (esp residential) and you have an even lower demand. Think about it, the Federal Govt and ZERO interest rate policies aren’t enough to hold up home prices….even MASSIVE govt purchases of MDS too isn’t putting a floor on housing prices.

    Soooo, home prices will continue to slide (not by as much obviously, maybe lower by 5%, maybe 10% no one really knows EXACTLY) and in real dollar terms they are a loser for years to come, probably in real dollar terms for the next decade it is dead money.

    In real estate, your only real control over the investment is what price you pay at the time of purchase, the rest you are at the mercy of the market. Fact.

  36. So what happens this spring when the first time buyer deduction disappears, and the fed stops supporting the mortgages when it quits purchasing debt? do condo prices rise, hold, or fall?

  37. Scrivener and Joe Blow, sorry guys for not mentioning you by name when adressing all the losers… I just thought that “etc” would cover it, but no, you clearly deserve singling out. Apologies for the omission.
    jcrimes is almost a loser, but not quite there yet. Miami Sceptic “the busboys can’t afford waterfront luxury condo, so the market is doomed” is pretty close to idiotic camp too, but is still salvageable. Maybe. I’m not sure.
    Joe surprised me on the upside, incredible feat.
    Well, anyway, do you losers really think that Miami market simply MUST stay low, until you and your comrades from loserdom will make enough money to afford premier real estate? Ain’t gonna happen. With emerging markets going gangbusters, there is huge pipeline of successful people in front of you. Chinese, Russians, Brazilians, whatever, you name it. It sucks to be you right now. Even your Sun-God (Renter Tom) is starting to hedge a little.
    Sorry for being too tough on you. Maybe I should offer a little understanding, so here it goes. I know it’s painful to want to buy, but having no means and no access to credit. Fuming and wishful thinking are useful in a situation like that, I do get it. But maybe instead of waiting for Brickell condos to collapse to your level, you should become realistic and assess your station in life without illusions. Overtown is a great place to live for people with your income, so why don’t you try that?

  38. BottomFeederNumeroUno – You’re funny. Hey, there are some good deals out there, I’ve seen a few but not the right one for me yet. There will be more to come I’m sure. There was one that perhaps I should have bought but have no regrets since it was a HUGE place, too big for me but the price, location, and views were great. The bottom line is there is NO urgency no matter how much an RE agent tries to create one. Do you buy a condo that is off 45% from 2-3 years ago? Maybe, if it is what you want and can afford it and plan on living there for at least 5 years go for it. But keep in mind that we’re not at the bottom yet, we’re just not there yet. Once this RE market hits the bottom any price increases will be gradual and will most probably be under the rate of inflation so in real dollar terms will continue to drop in asset value. I am putting my money where my mouth is…..this is how I am proceeding. I am more inclined to buy today than at this time last year. Be prudent, be cautious and when it comes to condos….do your homework on the condo!

  39. Renter Tom, you should be really careful with phrases like “there are some good deals out there”, “there was one that perhaps I should have bought”, and “I am more inclined to buy today than at this time last year”.
    Even with qualifiers, these may send your devotees over the edge. You don’t want to be blamed for Joe Blow overdosing on generic sleeping pills, now do you?

  40. So bottom feeder, what happens when govt support through first time buyer deductions and govt purchase of mortgage debt ends this spring. RE prices automatically jump around $8k plus nearly 1% on mortgages to begin with. Mortgages will jump from about 5% to 6% or even greater-my guess is at least to 6.5% but that is speculation. Miami is undergoing another major fiscal crisis, again. you really think property taxes will not rise? With record foreclosures coming in 2010, you think HOA will be stable in these buildings? I am not claiming another large crash in RE, but if we can even hold steady for the next few years it will be a miracle. America is an anxious country and wants to roll through this financial disaster in a couple of months, but the reality is it will take YEARS for this episode to work out. plenty of time to buy the condo of your choice.

  41. You know ,I am 100% convinced that this guy(who probably dosen’t have 2 cents too rub together or a window to throw them out of…is that R.E. agent KEVIN TOMLINSON.Think about it?? He has a Hard on for a lot of bloggers on this site. GOOD LUCK KEVIN

  42. Bottomfeeder is almost certainly a real estate professional. (Btw, can commission hacks who never had to apprentice or go to school to learn their trade — and who’s only real skill is “networking” — really be considered “professionals”? I say no.). Anyway, here’s a handy rule: anytime someone talks to you about “missing the bottom” or the “once in a lifetime” deals in Miami, you can go dollars to doughnuts that they are a member of the real estate industrial complex.

    None of that is surprising. These folks work on commission. It’s their job to sell you the product regardless of its intrinsic worth. And for a whopping 6% commission. What a system. Amazing.

    What’s equally amazing to me is that these people still use the same tired snake oil tactics that they spouted back in 2005. Condos to them are still an “investment” that somehow reflects the buyer’s moral character and overall worth. Only “losers” rent. Man up! Buy a house!

    I’m one of those “loser” renters. By my estimation I’ve saved at least $100k in the past few years alone — not including the down payment I would have lost if I had bought into the insipid hype. What a loser.

  43. THANK GOD…..all the offers I had on CONDO’S got refused…….everyone of them is still for sale or sold 75K-125K cheaper today….HOA’s have Skyrocked Tax’s have gone UP!!! RENTER TOM …keep up the good work!!!!!!! GOOD LUCK KEVIN TOMLINSON AKA BOTTOM FEEDER NUMERO UNO!!!!!!!!

  44. BottomFeederNumeroUno – I am certainly less bearish in January 2010 then in January 2009. I am a bullish bear. The only thing is, it is very distorting to look at a condo and say it is a bargain at 40% off what the buyer paid in 2006…..or that it is beachfront and will hold up. First, I think you need to see what prices were in 2001 for a correct view of current pricing and second beach front skyrocketed the most because it is beachfront and will have to go down proportionately. There are still a ton of wishing prices listed waiting for suckers.

    Gables – Post #59 hit the nail on the head.

  45. All those shows on HGTV about first time buyers show young couples buying 3 and 4 bedroom starter houses with very little or no money down. I assume they are all getting federally backed loans. Our system is completely broken.

  46. bottomfeeder
    the flaw in your reasoning is that there is NOW a burgeoning middles class in the BRICs and other countries. before they buy a dream condo in miami, they first need to secure good housing in their home country, something which they didn’t have before. as for the elite in those countries, they’ve been around for awhile…and they’re not buying condos in the design district or brickell you f$%king tard.

    let’s face it – your beauty school education isn’t going to hide your idiocy. but, i admit, it’s borderline amusing reading your drivel. so post away sweetheart.

  47. Wild Bill – I think you need to watch more HGTV…….you left out all the single young ladies (some young single moms) nesting….er, buying….a large home for just themselves. They get sooo excited….can you say EMOTIONAL purchase?

  48. I’ve noticed we almost never discuss the Beach anymore on this site. My personal opinion is that while Miami in general might be much closer to the bottom than it was a year ago, the high-end market (SoBe, SoFi, etc.) still has a long, long way to go. I’m curious what people think of the Beach market. I know Beach prices haven’t dropped as much as they have downtown, but by the same token, it seems like there’s FAR more high-end inventory on the Beach than there is downtown.

    I assume deeper-pocketed investors and developers on the Beach have been able to hold out longer, but it seems like that market still has a long ways to go before the bottom is hit. (And before AJ or BottomFeeder chime in, I’m not talking about Apogee being available for $100/sf.) Thoughts?

  49. Losers (have to add Juan Carlo to the list as a card-carrying member), you got it all wrong by trying to sherlock holmes me. With your loser minds your power of deduction cannot possibly work as well as it does in the movies. Remember, since you are a consistently wrong about pretty much everything you are trying to guess about, you should stop guessing before you hurt yourself and your loved ones (if you have any, which I doubt). And never, ever act on your guesses. It’s a road to disaster. OK, too late for that, probably…
    Anyway, losers – wow, there is lots more of you than I thought, how cute – you seem to forget that Miami market is one of the hardest hit in America. Of course, morons like you won’t calm down until SoFi condos are changing hands at negative prices, but smart people know when to stop and change their stance. Kinda like me. I also said in 2006 that all of the markets are way overpriced, but unlike youI know that after 50% decline (60% for Euros and Canadians), it’s either over or close to being over.
    For you losers, however, it’s still 2007. It will always be 2007, as far as I am concerned. It was the only year when you somehow got it right (stopped clock syndrome?), so you are reluctant to abandon it. Your loser brains are stuck in a fear position, where intelligent and opportunistic people are gradually switching into the greed mode.
    Your little income and jobs analyses are useless. By looking at California prices going up, losers like you would deduct that California has an amazing economy with incomes rising at 30% annual rate, and budget surplus as far as the eye can see.
    Have to disappoint you. That’s not true.
    You see, real estate prices don’t have to track incomes of people like you, or they’d always hover around zero. You just don’t matter all that much. You are counted in McDonalds’ same-store sales, not in real-estae stats. It may be cruel, but someone just has to deliver it to you.
    Real estate prices track total amount of credit in the system, and as that amount keeps growing, combined with the decline in available stock of housing, it will underpin real estate prices, firts of all in devastated markets like Miami, Las Vegas, San Diego , and such.
    Weak US Dollar – bound for further declines – will prop up prices in cities favored by foreigners such as Miami. With your set of skills, you can get to shine their shoes, so it’s not necessarily all bad for you.

  50. I love this blog – so entertaining and so educational! Better than reading a noble. It is your real voice!! Love it!!

  51. Joe – #68 you’re spot on. From what I have observed, beach buyer’s have deeper pockets which means they are slower to take the hit. But the beach also rose in price the most aggressively soooo it should come down…it’s just a timing delay. The people that were not wise enough to walk away from their deposits before closing are some of them that are now going into default. Even nice buildings like Jade Ocean and Jade Beach are experiencing that. More strategic defaults are coming as indicated by the Prime Jumbo delinquencies…..where South Florida will lead the nation. And after trumpeting all those foreign buyers, they are the same ones that will simply walk away since they don’t care about their credit scores, etc. I know one high end beach front property where the owner not only walked away from the condo but also left the high end sports car in the parking garage for over a year….it still had its dealer temp paper plate on it!!! Needless to say, it was a very dirty car the last time I saw it.

    I remember one person say ‘buy on the beach and beat the bubble’…..well, the truth is ALL real estate is taking a hit. And you can include that in noble (sic)!

  52. generic question. looking to buy a newer condo, 2B2B, for around $200k with plans on living there at least 5 years. location is downtown, brickell, gables or grove. comments from the board on good/bad/neutral move? not interested in making money on the deal-break even compared to rent would be adequate. seems to me lower limit on these units will probably hit $150k to $200k.

    looking to buy with a mortgage and move cash into longer term instruments paying higher interest when inflation rears its head in a couple of years. does anybody have data on how much home prices dropped (if they did) during the high inflation of late 70′s and early 80′s?

  53. Global Bust is not over. Not by any means. Many simpleminded investors have no idea that global financial system is in uncharted waters. As far as US RE is concerned (sofla as well), the Natural price adjustments were interrupted by the FED by engaging in QE. US Fed has bought 1.5 T worth of MBS…(imagine a bubbly RE market in the process of crashing and suddenly a huge buyer emerges and buys tons of them, stalling the price drops..but the buying is temporary) and in time has to sell it back to zombie (going to be insolvent) banks…FED has not disclosed at what price they bought it..so the banks show the overpriced POS property on their books not much off from their bubble peak..
    This is against the backdrop that at least US RE prices have adjusted ~30% in the aggregate while many countries (UK,OZ,Chindia etc ) still sport outrageous prices..mind you this is when real rates are negative in many countries so asset price will take hit (irrespective of a bubble) when rates normalize…

    China RE prices are rivalling that of rich countries with price /income as much as 10 or so…The upper end malls in many indian cities show what happens when CRE bubble kicks in..The luxury malls are in a bad situation while street vendors outside doing brisk business selling same stuff at 1/10th of the price…Both along w/ many others show all symptoms of extreme excesses due to easy money..”free” market did intend to correct these, but CBs around the world intervened in the utopian dream of preventing ‘em. But all will pay the price inevitably few yrs down the road and with worse conseqences..It could by this yr end or more likely by 2011-2012..

    A global Bust is coming. It is only a matter of time.

  54. andi – I agree, we are in unchartered territory. The ramifications of buying a lot of MBS to prevent a very very hard crash and possibly a depression are unclear. My view is this was necessary to prevent a large over correction on the downside in RE and to prevent a huge negative feedback loop. How does the ZIRP and MBSs on the balance sheet get unwound? Are banks just pretending the value of the RE loans since the collateral is actually worth a lot less…underwater??? Combine that with huge uncertainty in fed govt policies (we need certainties for planning purposes) and vast vast vast inefficiencies and socialist policies there is a lot to be concerned about for sure. Where is Reagan when we need him?

  55. What happens to all the people that bought in new buildings in the last 4 years? If they put 20% down they are still upside down another 20%. The only way they can sell is by bringing that other 20% plus closing and concession fees to the table. I guess the cash buyer can sell low and buy a replacement low or cash out at maybe 60%. Is this like buying stocks on margin or what.

  56. Gables

    Not sure about the downturn here in Miami during the 80′s but in post bubble real estate in Japan starting in 1990 from peak to trough was about 65%.

    Andi

    Your scenario envisions a complete end of the world financial collapse. Doubtful , but it may happen in which case we are all SOL (s*#t outa luck).

  57. kramer, i’m interested in how much the high interest rates affected home prices. inflation tends to increase prices, but high interest rates depress principal amount. curious as to what dominated in the late 70′s and early 80′s. may give us a clue about what we will see in the future.

  58. Lucas, I surprised that there are NOT a lot more amazing deal’s on the CONDO DEAL’S section you have here?????Some of them seem pretty good …I just thought there would be more and better deals in todays market. Keep up the good work!!!!! I enjoy thi Blog

  59. MIAMI MARKET READJUSTS AS SURGE IN BUYING ENDS

    By DEE WEDEMEYER
    Published: March 7, 1982

    The luxury condominium market in the greater Miami area is wobbling in the aftermath of a speculative buying spree. Only two years ago, people were lining up to reserve apartments in high-rise waterfront buildings whose construction had not even started. At one development, Brickell Key, 275 persons each left $5,000 deposits on a building that had not yet announced prices.
    In many cases, the speculative ”buyer” hoped to sell his purchase contract at a profit when the building was ready, or even before. Some listed their unit for resale immediately and found themselves with a profit without even taking title.
    It worked for a while, but high interest rates persisted, the dollar strengthened and the pool of Latin-American buyers proved shallower than some developers had expected.
    Now, many of the speculators find they have no buyers and are unable, or unwilling, to go to closing. In some cases, the buyer is walking away from deposits of $50,000. Others are bringing lawsuits to free themselves of contractual obligation.
    ”I think there are more attorneys trying to get people out of closings than into closings,” said Irwin Adler of Adler-Ross Associates, the developer of L’Hermitage, a town-house project in the Coconut Grove area.
    According to Lewis Goodkin, a marketing research expert, there are about 12,000 luxury, waterview condominiums on the market or under construction in Dade County. He says it could take three to five years to absorb that number. He defines luxury condominiums as those priced over $100,000.
    Mr. Goodkin believes that 43 to 46 percent of the luxury apartments were bought by speculators and that the buyers today are 50 to 85 percent speculators and investors.
    He points out that the current recession differs from the one in 1973 and 1974. Then, unfinished construction projects and vacant buildings created a gaunt skyline of steel as an unwelcome reminder of overproduction.
    The overproduced units also were more in the middle-price range, not the luxury market, and they were in the hands of lenders who offered substantial reductions and financing to purchasers. The waterfront luxury condominiums are considered to be in strong hands financially.
    Some builders, nevertheless, are slowing their construction schedules or doing only preliminary land development until the market changes, selling off sites that they were planning to develop, or even selling off blocks of completed apartments at auction.
    A subsidiary of Cadillac-Fairview, in partnership with Southeastern Florida Properties Inc., a local group, postponed three developments, including La Excellence, where the foundations were already started. The Canadian company also allowed one parcel of land it owned in the same partnership to be foreclosed.
    The same developers also put 150 units in several south Florida projects up for auction last week. In three buildings, apartments sold for about 50 percent of list price.
    ”If the builders had not made substantial profits on the units they sold, it would have been an absolute disaster,” said Mr. Goodkin, speaking for the developers.
    To others long experienced with the cyclical nature of Florida residential sales, the current market is seen as just another cycle. To them, this is the ideal time to start building.
    ”Take it from one who has seen peaks and valleys,” said Lawrence J. Aberman, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Williams Island, which will deliver its first units in January 1984. ”The time to start a development of this nature is when we are in a valley, not when we are heading toward a peak.”
    After the recession of 1973-74, the Florida market gradually began to absorb a huge, unsold inventory of new housing. New construction for both the second-home and primary-home market started to gain momentum as early as 1978.
    Then on July 16, 1979, as many local people recall it, the sales force for Brickell Key came to work to find people standing in line to buy apartments.
    Brickell Key was not much more than a barren site on Claughton Island connected to a prime Miami area by a bridge. There were no model apartments, just floor plans. People had to be given numbers to buy apartments.
    In two days, the contracts on all 301 units were written at prices that averaged about $130 a square foot – from $60,000 to $650,000. In addition, there were the 275 persons who left $5,000 no-interest deposits for a second building that did not even have a construction starting date.
    The developers, Cheezem Development Corporation and Swire Properties, are closing the first building. Charles K. Cheezem says he does not expect buyers to forfeit their deposits, but many have asked for delays. He will accommodate them where he can, he said, but the interest on construction financing on the completed building costs $24,000 a day. So far, 40 units have been closed. By their own count, 69 buyers sold their contracts, including someone who purchased a unit for $108,000 and sold the contract for $172,500.
    The second building is under construction, but in a manner that may be as startling to some as the line of buyers was that day in July 1979. Construction has been slowed so that its completion will coincide with sales. The idea, Mr. Cheezem explained, was to delay the last six months of construction when the bulk of the construction financing is in place.
    Before the sales program for the second building can begin in full force, the apartments offered for resale have to be sold, Mr. Cheezem said. At latest count, 24 were listed in the local multiple service. A scrapbook of advertising that the company keeps shows an ad for a buyer offering a new Cadillac with an apartment.
    ”I hate to say it, but basically those people are our competition,” he said. The sales offices are a curious scene. Some are carpeted with stainless steel displays extolling the merits of Roman baths and gourmet sinks. There are bilingual sales personnel, but not many buyers to talk to. Other sales offices are a circus of activities – apartments being closed, decorated, listed for rent, titles transferred – all in a variety of languages. There is talk of mortgage applications from royal highnesses and tales of gold being smuggled out of France.
    In some areas of Miami, particularly along Brickell Avenue, it will be a long time before the construction dust settles and all the apartment units are sold and closed. At one corner is The Palace, the 41-story development of Harry B. Helmsley of New York. Next door, the Villa Regina is going up 27 stories. Next to that is the Imperial, 30 stories. Just down the way is the Atlantis, 21 stories, and La Santa Maria, an Olympia & York 200-unit project now in the foundation stage and expected to advance slowly.
    Another major area of construction is Turnberry Isle. It has two completed apartment condominium buildings, two golf courses, tennis facilities, a 120-room hotel, a spa and a yacht club. A shopping center is in construction, a third condominium building is opening and a fourth is in construction.
    George Berlin, the project director, said he expected to lose between $6 million and $9 million in sales, or between 10 and 15 percent of the buyers, in Turnberry Isle’s third condominium building. One, a man who deposited $50,000, already has walked away. Mr. Berlin said he let one man out of his contract because of a death in his family. He has given many buyers time to raise funds.
    ”If they breathe, we will finance them,” he said. He said he was telling speculators that they were in the same position as someone who had speculated in gold or stocks. ”He bought on margin,” Mr. Berlin said. ”He bought on 20 percent margin.” After raising prices 10 to 15 percent three times, he has come closer to the original prices and is requiring 30 percent deposits. Even with cancellations on the third building, the units sold will be enough to pay off the construction loan, Mr. Berlin said.
    Turnberry also sold off two building sites to other developers: one to a partnership of Larry A. Silverstein of New York with Shopco, a shopping center developer, and the second to Elliot and Gerald Monter, developers of the Hamlet, a single-family home development in Jericho, L.I.
    Just across Country Club Drive from these two sites EquiNational, a Scarsdale, N.Y., group, in partnership with Finagest, a Swiss group, have bought a site from Arlen for Plaza del Mar, a development with zoning for 1,625 units. There is no construction financing, but there is a sales office for the first 566 apartments and town houses. A Florida subsidiary of Costain Ltd., a Canadian company, has purchased a 176-acre site just north of Turnberry with zoning for 3,677 units.
    James MacKenzie, the president of Costain Florida, said the company would develop the land while they waited. ”We will go up to a certain point, and if the market doesn’t improve, we will stop.”
    Costain Florida will build The Waterways with six-story buildings of 83 units each. The apartments will sell at an average $100 a square foot, starting at $100,000, so they believe they have found a segment of the market that has not been overbuilt.
    Many developers are changing their strategies with the economy and the competition. The Towers of Quayside, another large and successful development, began a marketing program in the Far East and will soon open a sales pavilion in New York.
    Ronald K. Lavan, the executive director, said that the days when he handed out tickets to buy apartments might be gone but that he was still selling two to four units a week. He thinks some builders had unrealistic expectations.
    ”When you sell one building in one day,” he said, ”you think, ‘Oh, boy, this is going to be a cakewalk,’ but the fact is, no one has ever closed more than 150 to 250 units a year in a development.”
    The marketing program for the Terraces at Turnberry, the Silverstein-Shopco development, includes a videotape in five langages that sells Florida and the United States first and only in the last minutes extols the virtue of the apartments.
    Because the investment aspect of the purchase is stressed, the Securities and Exchange Commission forbids showing the tape to American citizens. While sun-tanned models fish and play golf and tennis, a narrator points out that the threat of Socialism and Communism in the United States ”is virtually nonexistent.”
    The first of three towers in the Terraces that will eventually contain 850 units is up two stories now, and 130 of the 285 units in the first tower have sold, Mr. Silverstein said. Buyers put down 10 percent when signing the contract, 5 percent when construction commenced, 5 percent in 90 days and 5 percent when construction reaches the floor on which their unit is situated.
    Average sales are about $300,000, he says, but that is still at an average of $160 a square foot, about half what it would be in some luxury Manhattan condominiums. He thinks it will take two years to sell out the building, and he is not worried about cancellations.
    ”Our feeling is, if someone has the capacity of putting down 25 percent, they have the capability of closing,” he said. Efforts to cancel contracts are becoming legend. According to Gerald Schlosser of Helmsley-Spear of Florida, the buyers of 24 units in the Palace have brought suit to rescind ther contracts. Of 254 units, 111 are closed and five have been foreclosed. Between 25 and 30 units are listed for resale. Mr. Schlosser says the company has not decided what to do with the apartments that will be foreclosed.
    ”People are getting default letters,” he said, ”and many are saying, ‘We really want to close. We don’t want to lose our deposits.’ I just don’t know who the hard core are who won’t close and will be defaulted.”
    Alicia Cervera, chairman of Condominium Marketing Consultants, which sold the Palace and the Atlantis a few doors down, said that 69 of the 254 buyers resold their apartments before the building was finished. From a list that shows how much they deposited, how much they sold for and their return on investment, she showed that the average return was 71 percent, that the apartments appreciated in price 14 percent before they were even completed. ”The usual thing is to make 100 percent,” she said.
    Mrs. Cervera said she had received calls from several of her clients looking for four or five persons who did not want to honor their contracts and were willing to take a 10 to 15 percent loss. So far, she had not been able to put such a package together.
    A Peruvian who identified himself only as Marco said he had bought six apartments, five in the Palace and one in the Atlantis. He backed out of the deal in the Atlantis, he said, then changed his mind, but it was too late. Someone had taken that unit. On four of the Palace apartments, he put $50,000 deposits and sold contracts for an additional $50,000, making 100 percent on his investment. On the fifth, he made $30,000.
    ”The brokers in Miami have a clientele,” he said. ”All Mrs. Cervera has to do is call, and they come like bees. Today they may not come because there is no honey.”

  60. As you can see from previous post, waterfront condos were selling for $130/sq ft in Miami in 1979. That’s 30 YEARS AGO! Anyone who thinks that today new waterfront apartments should be selling for anything less than double of that, should explain why, and perhaps visit a doctor.

  61. So an order of magnitude increase in supply of units on the waterfront will do nothing to control the rise in cost of these units? That kind of thinking is the same as “real estate has always risen and will never fall in a uniform and sustained fashion.”

  62. “Anyone who thinks that today new waterfront apartments should be selling for anything less than double of that, should explain why, and perhaps visit a doctor.”

    Why stop at double, why not triple or quadruple?!

  63. 401 OCEAN DR unit 422 sold for $38,500 in 1987. Adj Sq Footage: 655
    Not sure if oceanfront.

    401 OCEAN DR 223 4/1980 Sale Amount: $40,000 Adj Sq Footage: 655
    Not sure if oceanfront.

    401 OCEAN DR 6031/1997 Sale Amount: $84,500 Adj Sq Footage: 659
    Not sure if oceanfront.

    America has a fake bloated real estate market. Due to government support the market for real estate is vastly overpriced. Bubble of epic proportions.

  64. Wild Bill, post links, please, otherwise I have doubts. I posted huge article from 1982 that pretty much describes today’s situation, but Mr. Lechuga just keeps it hanging “awaiting moderation”, so you can’t read it.
    Do you really believe that today condos should be selling at 1979 prices in nominal dollars, even though you can’t buy a cup of coffee or a tank of gas for that money?
    After you adjust for inflation, RE prices in Miami today may well be cheapest in history.

  65. I agree with “We’ve seen this movie already”

    I have been trying to post similar information but for some reason it is not working.

    But put simply, the supply is not that big of an issue. When looking at the supply of property less than $500k it fluctuates between 4 and 6 month supply. This is the majority of the market.

    Constructions starts have come to a stop. As in most recessions we will over correct and not allow much new construction until after were in an upswing. By that time it will be too late because there will be nothing in the pipeline. Prices will jump due to short supply and then level out once the new supply comes online. Then a few decades later everyone will forget the results, speculate and build too much and the scenario repeats itself.

  66. We’ve seen this movie already,

    I do not believe that price should reflect 1979. Was posting the figures so people can put together the pieces of the puzzle. I won’t help with the rest of the puzzle.

    My figures are from the Miami Dade Tax Collectors Office.
    http://www.miamidade.gov/proptax/

  67. Gixxer 1000 — Once again, you’re having some trouble with basic facts:

    1. In the last 5 years, more condos were built in Miami than in the prior 20-30 years ADDED TOGETHER. To dismiss supply as “not a problem” absent a quantifiable increase in demand (i.e., a corresponding increase in well-paying jobs and/or an influx of money from outside Miami) is both silly and illogical.

    2. As of December 2009, there was almost a 3-year supply of condos available in the $500,000-and-under price range. Are you claiming that 2.5 years’ of inventory has been absorbed in the past month? If not, your claims are more than a little off.

  68. Joe, you are so stupid , it’s incredible. Population of Miami grew since 2000 to now by some 62000 people, whereas in previous 30 years (1970-2000) it increased by less than 28000. Why wouldn’t there be more condos built now ?
    Check it out here, bozo:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami

    Go to population, see it for yourself. Sometimes I wonder about clowns like you.

  69. “Scrivener and Joe Blow, sorry guys for not mentioning you by name when adressing all the losers…” – - BottomFeederNumeroUno:

    Sorry to hear that your self esteem is so fragile. It must be difficult for a person of limited intellect such as your self to navigate the challenges of every day life with such a chip on your shoulder.

    As for the rest of the economic drivel you seem compelled to spout and spew: do the math, chart the graphs – - lest ye gaff.

    scriv

  70. “do the math, chart the graphs – – lest ye gaff.”

    By far your best quote scriv. So I will do exactly that for Joe since he seems to just magically invent numbers.

    Here is a thread from July where Lucas posted housing supply:

    http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/2009/07/28/miami-miami-beach-condo-trends-july-2009/

    At that time if you look at all condos under $500k there was a 20 month supply.

    14,986 (condos under $500k)/754 (average monthly closings under $500k) = 20 months

    If you follow that trend for the second half of the year that would put us currently at:

    10,516 (condos under $500k)/ 745 (average monthly closings under $500k) = 14 month supply

    Please note that I’m not trying to state this as the exact inventory, I’m just trying illustrate that using Lucas’ information inventory has decreased and is lower than the 20 month supply in July. I’m sure some inventory has come on line in the last 6 months but it can’t be that significant. The largest amount of added inventory will probably come from foreclosures and its been posted and discussed many times that bulk of these units will be above $500k. And I think it is fairly obvious that more condos were purchased in the second half of the year so the absorption rate should be higher. I would love to see an actual update from Lucas (hint, hint).

    For reference most of the sites that let you look at active listings actually shows an inventory of about 7,775 condos available under $500k. Which is obviously low, which is why I used the information from this site. Even if that information is low there still is no where near a 36 month supply.

    In a healthy market housing supply is probably around 6 months so you also have to realize that there would be a good amount of constructions starts at the same time. But in this market housing starts have come to a standstill, especially for condos.

    So in normal condition you would have 6 months of supply and every month you would sell a months worth of supply, then new people would decide to sell and we would also complete construction on a considerable amount of supply to remain at 6 months. Instead if we had 20 months of supply and we were not creating a new month of supply, so the supply is decrease every month.

    What you also have to realize is that the housing supply is based off of average monthly sales. If the average sales increase and the number of condos doesn’t, the months of supply decreases even though the number of units doesn’t.

    Example:

    10,516/745 = 14 months. But if the average number of sales increases to 808 then the supply would be 10,516/808 = 13 month supply. So you can clearly see that it doesn’t have to take 20 months to absorb a 20 month supply, it’s not an actual time line it’s a gauge. Sort of like if you driving 600 miles at 60 mph it would take you 10 hours. But if you drive at 80 mph it will take you 7.5 hours. You’ve cut 2.5 hours off without even moving.

    And given the state of financing and our natural fears that usually compel us to over react no one is going to allow significant housing starts in Miami anytime soon.

    If the current absorption rate continues, a year from now were going to have less than 6 month supply of condos under $500k.

    Please post any credible information that indicates that there is an almost 36 month supply of condos under $500k in Miami.

  71. Gixxer 1000:

    Interesting math. Glad to see someone crunching the numbers!

    But underlying your calculations, as is always the case with statistical analysis, are a set of assumptions. Would you please define them?

    For example, to use your driving analogy, (… 600 miles at 60 mph it would take you 10 hours. But if you drive at 80 mph it will take you 7.5 hours. You’ve cut 2.5 hours off without even moving), aren’t you assuming a constant velocity? (Advanced apologies for those who hate physics.)

    I mean, theoretically there are two basic types of inventory out there: the active inventory (that currently available for sale in the market) and the “shadow” inventory that the media is just picking up on. (see: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/05/opinion/05tue1.html)

    Just curious.

    scriv

  72. Gixxer 1000 — For someone who’s kind of a Johnny Come Lately on this blog, you seem to always take a very strident tone.

    I’m not going back through 6 months of postings here, but I can tell you Lucas himself acknowledged there was well over two years of inventory in every market segment as of November or December 2009 — well after your odd July 2009 cutoff — and some segments (e.g., high-end) had something like a 5-year inventory at the absorption rates that were in effect at the time of that discussion.

    Further, your calculations oddly don’t seem to include any additional condos hitting the market via shadow inventory, resales, foreclosures, developer units, etc. Do you really believe the “x” units that were available in July 2009 represented every condo that would be offered for sale in Miami for the foreseeable future? Come on; get serious.

  73. F-35 — Where did you learn logic? Please explain how a net population increase in Miami of plus-30,000 translates into a demand for 30,000 new high-end condos? Do you have any clue about Miami’s demographics? As I’ve asked repeatedly, can you list 30,000 new well-paying jobs that have come to Miami over the past 10 years? I sure can’t.

    I’ll grant you that more people = more demand for housing, but it sure as hell DOESN’T automatically translate into more demand for HIGH-END housing. If that was the case, Miami wouldn’t have had any housing bubble at all. (“Real estate is local,” remember? LOL.)

  74. About Miami Real Estate Rental Market:
    Just recently moved to Miami and looking to rent an apartment on Brickell (close to my office).

    Apartment Rental prices are ridiculously high and unrealistic… very similar to NYC but unjustifiable. I have been looking to rent units at ICON and EPIC. Both sales office agents are like used car salesmen. I just can’t trust. Why can’t I go in and talk to an agent, pick a unit, negotiate, and sign the damn lease?

    These sales office agents are not showing their entire inventory. I have to work with multiple agents and independent brokers to fully view the inventory and make a decision.
    Any advice would be appreciated! Any tricks I should know?

    Thanks
    Gabi
    gabimia07@yahoo.com

  75. Gabi,
    Welcome to Miami :) we keep it complicated as a means to keepsoutsiders from overrunning our bannana republic paradise!

  76. Joe,

    I was going to make a smart @ss comment considering I personally wouldn’t care about the tone or how long someone has been on a blog, but instead about the actual facts behind their argument. But I don’t want to divert an actual meaningful debate, so I’ll try to refrain.

    From what I can see Lucas has NOT acknowledged over a two year supply in every market segment. Looking at the July ’09 if you focused on just the $250-$500 segment at the time there was over a 3 year supply. Now maybe this is what you’re referring to. But this is simply a numbers game because you could simply change the segment to $200 – $400 or $100- $300 which would all render a different (lower) number. But it’s clear there are two separate markets, above $500 and below $500. The NAR reported that for November ’09, 94.7% of the sales were $500k and below. But if this is not what you were thinking then please post something credible and not just what you think you remember. And again I’m not trying to be facetious. If you actually have information indicating that there is a an almost 36 month supply of condos under $500 then please show me, if not then simply say that you misunderstood. This isn’t about being right its about facts and I would like to know the facts.

    “Further, your calculations oddly don’t seem to include any additional condos hitting the market via shadow inventory, resales, foreclosures, developer units, etc. Do you really believe the “x” units that were available in July 2009 represented every condo that would be offered for sale in Miami for the foreseeable future? Come on; get serious.”

    I clearly stated that my numbers weren’t exact. It was simply to show that in July ’09 there was a 20 month supply and in optimal conditions there could be as low as a 14 month supply. I don’t disagree that foreclosures, etc. could add to the total. But the inventory is clearly decreasing which probably places the supply somewhere between. But regardless of whatever the exact number it is a far cry from 36 months which is what you asserted.

    But if you still think my numbers are so outrageous then lets go back another six months and look at what Lucas posted in January ’09:

    http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/2009/01/19/miami-miami-beach-condo-trends-january-2009/

    It appears that in January ’09 there were 22,609 condos available. Of those 17,992 were priced $500k and below. At that time an average of 511 condos below $500k were selling a month.

    17,992/511 = 35 months of supply. So in January ’09 there was a 35 month supply of condos $500k and below and then six months later there was a 20 month supply. That 15 months worth of supply in six months!!! And you can’t blame my calculations,this is simply sales data posted from Lucas.

    I’ll also add that the number of mortgage foreclosure fillings in the second half of the year was less than the first half. So its clear that when looking at January ’09 numbers to July ’09, foreclosures and new inventory is not enough to drive supply up. The only thing that isn’t addressed is shadow inventory. But considering Lucas’ figures were up to over 22k in January ’09 how many units do you want to account for? If anyone has any quantifiable data I would love to see it.

  77. Gixxer 1000 — I don’t care how long you’ve been on this site. My point simply was that you seem to have missed a lot of prior discussions and comments. If you look thru the comments over the past few months, Lucas chimed into one of the discussions and agreed there were substantial backlogs in all market segments.

    I suspect some of the comparisons you made above are somewhat moot or misleading, simply because there was so much downward price pressure in the Miami market over the past 12 months. Just because there are fewer condos in a particular price segment today doesn’t mean all of the “missing” condos have been sold (absorbed). Rather, a lot of those units simply tumbled down into lower price segments and/or were taken off the market altogether.

    Look again at your own numbers above: They simply don’t add up. You stated there were 22,000 condos listed for sale in Jan. 2009 at $500k or below and that the absorption rate for 2009 fluctuated between 500 and 700 units per month. Best case, that would yield 9,000 condo sales, leaving 13,000 condos available. However, you also mention that just 7,775 condos are listed for sale right now in the same under-$500 segment. Well, where did those other 5,000 condos go? They didn’t just disappear. Obviously, there were taken off the market (shadow inventory) and/or turned into rentals. (And what about the huge shadow inventory that existed in Jan. 2009? And what about foreclosures? And what about the presumably large number of condos that had been priced over $500k as of Jan. 2009 that tumbled into the $500k and lower segment as prices dropped throughout 2009? Your model above doesn’t take *any* of these into account, which leaves something like 10,000 condos unaccounted for.)

    Again, as I’ve said many times before, I have no interest in living in downtown Miami, so I couldn’t care less what happens in that market. But when people roll onto this site and predict the current inventory will get absorbed in six months or a year, and even predict upward price pressure, I have to call B.S. As I said above, if there was sufficient demand in Miami for 30,000 new high-end condos, there wouldn’t have been a bubble in the first place.

  78. I’m new to this site. Just moved from New York. It seems that Miami needs to have some investment bankers from New York to move here and set the real estate market on the right track… accordingly.

    By the way, are there investment banks or private equity firms in MIA? can’t think of any.

  79. Kiki — Welcome to Miami. I migrated to Miami from N.Y. myself. As for banking and finance jobs in Miami, there were never many to begin with, and I’ve heard the existing jobs/firms (mostly in Brickell area) were hit hard in the recession. Good luck.

  80. Joe

    Its clear that you don’t understand. Maybe because your not reading everything or you simply don’t get it.

    “Look again at your own numbers above: They simply don’t add up.”

    These are NOT my numbers! Click the link, these are LUCAS’ numbers. If you don’t like them then tell Lucas he is lying.

    “You stated there were 22,000 condos listed for sale in Jan. 2009 at $500k or below”

    NO I didn’t. I said there were a total of 22,609 condos TOTAL. Of that 17,992 were below $500k. I’m not doing any calculations I’m just RESTATING Lucas’ old numbers

    January ’09
    22,609 (total condos on the market)
    591 (average number of total condos sold)
    17,992 condos at or below $500k
    511 (average number of condos sold UNDER $500k)

    So total supply:
    22,609/591 = 38 months

    Supply of condos under $500k

    17,992/511 = 35 months

    July ’09 (six months later)

    18,916 (total condos on market)
    834 (average number of total condos sold)
    14,986 (condos at or below $500k)
    754 (average number of condos sold under $500k)

    So total supply:

    18,916/834 = 22 months

    Supply of condos under $500k

    14,986/754 = 20 months

    Decrease in condos on market from Jan ’09 to July ’09:
    22,609 – 18,916 = 3,693

    Our average of 834 total condos a month came from the fact that 5007 total condos were sold.

    5,007 – 3,693 = 1,314

    So 5,007 condos were sold but 1,314 condos new condos were added, leaving a net reduction of 3,693 condos.

    The rest of your questions just show you don’t understand.

    If there were 18,916 total condos available in July ’09 and we continue the trend, then there is likely to be about 15,000 TOTAL condos available today. Of that 12,000 are likely to be priced at $500k or below. If we use the same absorption rate as $500k condos from Jan – Jul of 754 that would give us

    12,000/754 = 16 months (which is between 20 and 14 as I suggested in the first post)

    “However, you also mention that just 7,775 condos are listed for sale right now in the same under-$500 segment. Well, where did those other 5,000 condos go?”

    The difference is the bulk of the shadow inventory. Lucas inventory is higher that what just shows up on conventional sites.

    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AgZ1g1mQvGTFdFk5LUZDT3hlSllaSkY4TmJYUnVaMnc&hl=en

    In January ’09 most sites were showing 13,500 when Lucas had 22,609 and in July ’09 most sites were showing 10,800 when Lucas was showing 18,916. So as of right now most places show about 8,000 listings when there is probably more like 12,000. This also shows the progression that as sales pick up the shadow inventory is reducing as well.

    And just because a condo is owned by an investor who is renting does not mean its not absorbed. Do you really think people weren’t renting condos 20 years ago? A decent amount of units will always be investor owned.

    Plus, all of these condos don’t have to be absorbed to have a healthy market. If six months of supply is healthy then at current rates there should be at least 4524 (754 x 6) condos at or below $500k when there are more like 12,000. That’s an extra 7,476 condos. Considering were currently have a net reduction of about 3,000 units every six months in this range we will be there in about one year. And if sales were to pick up by any amount we will be there sooner. And its obvious as prices fall sales are picking up.

    Now I’m not saying this will happen for sure. NONE of us can predict the future. I’m just saying that if we continue at the same pace we will get there.

    If we drive at an average of 60 mph for 10 hrs we will go 600 miles. Now we could always catch a flat tire and have to stop and then it would take longer. Just as sales could drop off to an average of 400 per month.

    “But when people roll onto this site and predict the current inventory will get absorbed in six months or a year, and even predict upward price pressure, I have to call B.S.”

    That’s fine but shouldn’t you do it based on facts and not just based on what everyone here has been telling you.

  81. the big problem with predicting future sales rate involves the need for new home buyers or investors to pick up the slack. we are in a bad situation where upward mobility is impeded by the inability to sell ones current home and buy another property. since this dynamic is relatively new, it creates difficulty in predicting how soon all these properties will move off of the market.

  82. gables

    I don’t disagree about predicting future sales rates, but this information is based off of current sales rates. And we know the sales rates in Aug, Sep, Oct, and Nov. And the Dec information will be out at the end of this month when I assume Lucas will post an update.

    I noticed you an Joe are indicating that this is a prediction, which it is not. I’m simply saying that if everything stays exactly the same this is what will happen. That’s a fact, not a prediction. Like my driving metaphor. If you drive at the current rate of 60 mph you will be 600 miles in 10 hours, fact. Whether or not you actually maintain a 60 mph average is another situation.

    So the real debate seem to be if sales will slow, stay the same or pick up. Or if some other outside influence changes the parameters (ex. foreclosure rates triple). I’m going to err on the side of caution and assume that sales will stay the same. If you have any information or speculation as to why sales would slow or speed up I would love to hear it.

  83. Gixxer 1000 — You’re not using “current sales rates.” If you were, then why are you using phrases like “if we continue the trend …”? At best, you’re using 6-month-old data to make broad-based assumptions of the health of the Miami r.e. market *today,* when all of the available evidence suggests condos aren’t exactly flying off the MLS right now. Seriously, if Miami condo sales are so strong, why is Lucas spending so much time talking about and pumping rentals? Most r.e. agents don’t even pay attention to rentals when times are good.

  84. Joe

    “when all of the available evidence suggests condos aren’t exactly flying off the MLS right now. ”

    Where is your evidence. When have you EVER provided proof for anything instead of talking out of your @ss like you always do. I’m still waiting on you to show how there is an almost 36 month supply of condos $500k and below.

    I don’t want to link to a competitors website so I’ll just post the numbers:

    “All data is based on Closed Sales data from the Southeast Florida Multiple Listing Service. Statistics do not include transactions that take place outside the MLS.”

    January 632
    February 665
    March 821
    April 872
    May 887
    June 1000
    July 926
    August 942
    September 936
    October 964
    November 907
    December 976

    These numbers are slightly lower for the first half of ’09 than what Lucas reported. But he may have information that this source does not. The other places that I look for haven’t put out December numbers yet. There is usually minor discrepancies from the different sources but they are always minor.

    “Seriously, if Miami condo sales are so strong, why is Lucas spending so much time talking about and pumping rentals? Most r.e. agents don’t even pay attention to rentals when times are good”

    This is what your basing your assumptions on???? Of course Lucas is pushing rentals. There were a lot of bulk deals and now a lot of units are starting to open up as rentals. Why would he not want a piece of the action?

    You keep gauging the market based on Lucas’ posts about rental units and I’ll keep looking at MLS sales data.

  85. Gixxer 1000 — I’ve lost track of what you’re even arguing. Every time I post 3 sentences, you post a 20-paragraph reply that leaves the issue more convoluted than when we started.

    According to the numbers you just posted above, roughly 100 more condos are being sold per month now than were being sold per month in the first half of 2009 (aside from Jan. and Feb. 2009, which were outliers). That’s hardly a huge uptick in the absorption rate, especially when you consider the corresponding uptick in foreclosures (not to mention rentals and other shadow inventory not reflected in the MLS numbers).

    So, again, what is your point here? You’ve been claiming a massive uptick in the absorption rate, but the numbers in your latest post seem to prove my point rather than yours. What gives?

  86. I’m starting to think you’re either just messing with me or you’re an idiot.

    The conversation is about the supply of condos $500k and under. The absorption rate is used to calculate the number of months of supply.

    (Inventory/monthly absorption rate) = months of supply

    Where did I ever claim a massive up-tick in the absorption rate??? READ. I have been saying that the current absorption rate is enough to reduce the supply.

    January 09 condo supply of condos $500 and under = 35 months
    Current absorption rate in January ’09 = 511

    July 09 condo supply of condos $500 and under = 20 months
    Current absorption rate in July ’09 = 754

    I don’t have the current number broken out by price range yet but it obvious to see that RIGHT now in January ’10 the absorption rate is AT LEAST and most likely higher than what it was in July ’09. So as of right now there is probably somewhere around a 16 month supply of condos.

    “As of December 2009, there was almost a 3-year supply of condos available in the $500,000-and-under price range.”

    Therefore this statement is FALSE. You are off by about 20 months. Tell me, how can we have an almost 36 month supply when we had only a 20 month supply six months ago and inventory is DECREASING.

    IF the absorption rate stays EXACTLY the same and foreclosure rates, new inventory , etc continue at the same pace we will have less than a 6 month supply of condo under $500k in a year.

  87. Gixxer 1000 — I might be an “idiot” as you claimed above — which was odd, since you started out this thread by complaining about the “childish name-calling” at this site — but at least I don’t keep lying about my own comments.

    In your last comment, you said this: “Where did I ever claim a massive up-tick in the absorption rate??? READ.”

    Okay, I did. And this is what I found:

    Gixxer 1000, post #85, just two days ago on Jan. 18, 2010 — “But put simply, the supply is not that big of an issue. When looking at the supply of property less than $500k it fluctuates between 4 and 6 month supply. This is the majority of the market.”

    Really? You don’t believe that saying Miami has a “4 to 6 month supply” of condos right now counts as claiming a massive uptick in the absorption rate? Are you kidding me?

    I’m sure I come across kind of strident sometimes, but at least I pick a position and stick with it. You shift your position in almost every comment, and then tell everyone else they’re a bunch of idiots for not following your unique brand of “logic.” Enough is enough.

  88. Joe

    In post #85 I completely mis spoke. I was trying to say in a year from now that is where the market will be. I actually had a bunch of other stuff typed and then I cut a lot out because it kept not letting me post. I REPEATED that thought throughout all the following posts.

    Post #91

    “If you follow that trend for the second half of the year that would put us currently at:
    10,516 (condos under $500k)/ 745 (average monthly closings under $500k) = 14 month supply
    Please note that I’m not trying to state this as the exact inventory, I’m just trying illustrate that using Lucas’ information inventory has decreased and is lower than the 20 month supply in July.”

    Here I projected somewhere between 20 and 14 month supply CURRENTLY.

    “If the current absorption rate continues, a year from now were going to have less than 6 month supply of condos under $500k.”

    Here I reaffirmed what I was trying to say in post #85 that we will be down to a six months supply ONE YEAR FROM NOW.

    Post #97

    “It was simply to show that in July ‘09 there was a 20 month supply and in optimal conditions there could be as low as a 14 month supply.”

    So again I projected AGAIN between 20 and 14 month supply CURRENTLY.

    Post #101

    “12,000/754 = 16 months (which is between 20 and 14 as I suggested in the first post)”

    And AGAIN for the THIRD TIME I projected between 20 and 14 months CURRENTLY.

    “If six months of supply is healthy then at current rates there should be at least 4524 (754 x 6) condos at or below $500k when there are more like 12,000. That’s an extra 7,476 condos. Considering were currently have a net reduction of about 3,000 units every six months in this range we will be there in about one year.”

    Here AGAIN I reaffirmed what I was trying to say in post #85 that we will be down to a six months supply ONE YEAR FROM NOW.

    I seriously apologize for not being clear in post #85. I see how that post would be confusing but you would have had to not even fully read ALL of the subsequent post to not understand what I was saying when I stated it over and over. My very next post should have made that clear.

    So to be 100% clear and if you skim over this post PLEASE READ this before responding.

    January ’09 $500k and under condo supply = 35 months (Fact)
    July ’09 $500k and under condo supply = 20 months (Fact)
    January ’10 $500k and under condo supply = 14 months (My Projection)
    January ’11 $500k and under condo supply = 6 months (My Projection)

  89. gixxer your results are not fact. they are simply results of calculations coming from numbers provided on a web site, with dubious accuracy (no shot against Lucas just noting the uncertainty in RE data). facts are not disputable. your numbers of current inventory and sales have uncertainty associated with them-just check another web site and you get yet another set of numbers. not disputing your results-i really do like numbers. but calling them facts is a little too strong.

  90. gables

    I agree. I Should of used a better word. But in fairness I have checked these numbers against multiple places and they are based on the MLS. While I admitted earlier their is some variance its not enough to change the supply more than a month. So I’ll put it another way. IF you believe that the MLS is an accurate representation of the market THEN this is an accurate representation of monthly supply.

  91. Gixxer 1000 — If you’re getting these numbers from “multiple places,” then why are your Jan. 2010 numbers based on “[Your] Projection” rather than actual sales data? As far as I can tell, the last numbers from all of your posts in the last 1-2 days that are actual data are from July 2009, over six months ago.

    Further, you keep claiming that almost two years’ worth of condos were absorbed between Jan. 2009 and Jan. 2010 (21 months’ worth, to be exact), but the sales numbers you’ve posted only show 100 more condos being sold per month in late 2009 than in early 2009. If the latter is true, then the former can’t be true.

    Again, just because the number of condos on the MLS has been reduced does NOT mean those condos have been absorbed in the r.e. sense of the phrase. More likely, all that’s happened is that shadow inventory has grown (via rentals or frustrated sellers pulling units off the market). Otherwise, I find it hard to believe 5,000 flippers suddenly are happy being in the landlord business.

  92. Wow, you really don’t understand do you???

    Look at post #101

    Between Jan ’09 and Jul ’09 only 3,693 condos left the market but the number of months of supply decreased from 35 to 20!!!! Those are LUCAS’ numbers.

    THAT IS THE WAY THE SUPPLY IS CALCULATED!!!!

    If you have 15,000 condos and you can sell 500 a month then you have 30 months of supply.

    15,000/500 = 30

    If you have 15,000 condos and you can sell 1000 a month then you only have 15 months of supply.

    15,000/1000 = 15

    Your supply has REDUCED by HALF even though you didn’t sell one condo. The supply is base on the rate in which you use it. I don’t know how to put it any simpler.

    If you have 10 apples and you eat ONE a day you have a 10 day supply.

    If you have 10 apples and you eat TWO a day you have a 5 day supply.

    Jan ’09 there were 17,992 condos ($500k and below) and because they were selling at a rate of 511 that was equal to a 35 month supply.

    17,992/511 = 35 month supply.

    Jul ’09 there was 14,986 condos ($500k and below) that means there was a net reduction of 3006 condos. Actually 4524 condos had been sold but 1518 new condos came on the market so that means the number of condos decrease by 3006. So the absorption rate is 754 (4524/6= 754). But because the rate picked up to 754 (from 511) the months of supply is now MUCH lower than it would have been if it was still 511.

    14,986/754 = 20 month supply

    So even though only about 3000 condo are actually leaving the market every six months, the number of months of supply is decreasing rapidly because the absorption rate is going up.

    For example if the absorption rate stayed at 511 then:

    14,986/511 = 30 months

    INSTEAD OF

    14,986/754 = 20 months

    Here you can see that the new absorption rate makes it appear as though there is 10 months less of supply with the same number of condos. The only reason that the supply was so high to begin with was because the sales had dropped so low.

    And ALL RENTALS ARE NOT SHADOW INVENTORY. If I bought that unit at TMP for $137 and my mortgage, HOA and taxes = $1500 and I’m renting it for $1600 why would it be SHADOW INVENTORY. Every CONDO does not have to be OWNER OCCUPIED to be absorbed. IF its not listed for sale then its not creating competition for anyone currently looking to sell.

    All these bulk deal are happening at lower rates.

    November 6 — 62 units in 401 Blu on Miami Beach, $154 per square foot.
    November 8 — 34 units in the luxury 3030 Aventura condo for $158 per square foot
    November 9 — 158 units at Downtown Dadeland for about $109 per square foot.
    November 12 — 50 units in the Edgewater Lofts for $99 per square foot.

    You think these people are buying bulk condos to turn around and sell them one by one!! In a short while the rest of the units will be selling at these prices. Why else would you buy 50 units at Edgewater for $99 sqft when the sales were clearly heading in that direction. Heck that was early November and units were already selling at $128 in December.

    I know you probably only heard about investing in real estate in the last couple of years but the world does not revolve around flipping. Real Estate is a LONG TERM investment.

    They bought the units at rates that they thought they could hold them at. These units are not going back on to the market anytime soon.

  93. Gixxer 1000 — You seem like one of those people whose mommy told him he was the smartest little kid in the world, and now, as an adult, still believes it.

    “So even though only about 3000 condo are actually leaving the market every six months, the number of months of supply is decreasing rapidly because the absorption rate is going up.” — Gixxer 1000

    Sorry, but this is false. As I’ve pointed out at least 3-4 times now, the average number of condos being sold in late 2009 was only about 100 more than the average number of condos being sold in early 2009. Unlike your idea of what a “fact” is, this actually *is* a fact based on ACTUAL sales data. (By your own projections, only one month’s worth of inventory is being absorbed per month right now, so there’s nothing “rapid” about that. That’s just the normal passage of time.)

    Further, why do you absolutely refuse to acknowledge that a huge number of condos you keep claiming to have been “absorbed” were, in fact, simply shifted to shadow inventory in the form of rentals? Are you seriously telling us that THOUSANDS of investors/flippers are now happy to be playing the landlord game for the next 5-10 years for a lousy $100 per month (if they’re lucky)? Give us a break.

    As for the bulk deals, many if not most of those were developer-owned and, thus, weren’t even listed in the MLS, so they’re meaningless for purposes of the original discussion about absorption rates. Nice try, though.

  94. Listen, I’m done.

    Let’s wait until Lucas puts an update out and then look at his numbers to see how many months of supply we currently have.

    You have stated that in December ’09 (which I consider current since its only January) the supply of condos $500k and under is almost 36 months.

    I have stated that I think the current supply of condos $500k and under is closer to 14 months.

    Maybe hearing it from someone else will help you to realize.

  95. Gixxer 1000 — I don’t care if you’re done or not. I would have been just as happy skipping this whole debate, especially given the number of times you shifted the goalposts or claimed to have “misspoke” when someone called you on something you wrote that was plainly false or erroneous.

    I just don’t understand why you insist on passing your *opinion* off as fact, or why you keep using 6-month-old data as your basis for said “facts” when we have data from Nov. 2009 and Dec. 2009 readily available, or why you believe thousands of flippers will be happy to be landlords for the next 5-10 years (in a brutal rental market).

  96. Hello Guys:
    any thoughts on the Epic in downtown? What do you think of the rental prices there?

    Jr 1bd (867sf) facing west is at$1900 and slightly larger 1bd (1040sf) facing river and bay is around $2300…

    Will these prices come down? Or will stay as is b/c it’s a luxury bldg?

    Any thoughts or advice will be greatly appreciated.
    Thx.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Featured Articles





Blog Archives

Blog Categories